The Poll: Is Wyc burning Brad- Should CBS be torched at season's end?

Should Brad be fired as Celtics HC?

  • Yes, no ifs and or buts

  • Yes, but only if they miss the post-season

  • Yes , and I'd fire Danny too

  • No

  • Other Yes-specify

  • Other No-specify

  • Other


Results are only viewable after voting.

Cesar Crespo

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The worst season relative to expectations under Brad's tenure has come when he has had the least practice time with the team. There are many more compelling reasons to me why this team is disappointing than CBS.
His best seasons are overachieving with lesser talent.
 

bakahump

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YOU are named the coach of the Boston Celtics. How do YOU motivate a pair of 23 year old "super" stars.
Cajole
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alot of us are calling for changes because "Brad cant get these guys to play". What does the NEXT guy have to do? Bench Tatum? Bench......Smart (who should be gone)? Heal Kemba?

Change for change sake? Or do you really have an idea of what needs to be done to motivate these kids.
 

HomeRunBaker

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YOU are named the coach of the Boston Celtics. How do YOU motivate a pair of 23 year old "super" stars.
Cajole
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Ass chew

alot of us are calling for changes because "Brad cant get these guys to play". What does the NEXT guy have to do? Bench Tatum? Bench......Smart (who should be gone)? Heal Kemba?

Change for change sake? Or do you really have an idea of what needs to be done to motivate these kids.
Ummmmm, none of us have experience with these players to understand what each player requires......that is the job of an NBA Head Coach. That doesn’t mean it should or shouldn’t happen.

I’ll ask these two questions, and I’m not a fan of him as a long-term Coach as few have shorter windows than he does; but how do you feel this Celtics team would be performing this year if Thibs was leading the squad? Do you think their energy, focus and motivation would be better?

I’m pretty certain I know the answers. Would like to hear a pro-Brad guys opinion on it though.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I am betting not better. But its an unknowable.
We’ve seen Thibs make ridiculous improvements in these areas at every one of his stops. Did we forget last years Knicks team so quickly? I’m no fan of the depth on this roster but these players aren’t hopeless.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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We’ve seen Thibs make ridiculous improvements in these areas at every one of his stops. Did we forget last years Knicks team so quickly? I’m no fan of the depth on this roster but these players aren’t hopeless.
You raise an interesting question. Thibs and even Doc to some degree seem like good fits for very specific situations but let's generally say veteran rosters.

The thing is, a post-Stevens Celtics team is still presumably featuring a very young core. I get there are people who strongly believe Stevens isn't demonstrative enough to coach an NBA team to a championship but my sense is that style doesn't work as much with younger athletes these days.

If the Celtics do opt to seek another coach, it will be fascinating to see whom Tatum/Brown sign off on. Given what we know about both but Brown in particular, its a fair bet that the C's will be doing more than just window dressing in the sorts of candidates they might interview - and that is a very good thing IMO. That is far more important than impressing a bunch of fans or sportswriters by simply going after an established NBA head coach.

.
 

reggiecleveland

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His best seasons are overachieving with lesser talent.
I had some experience from my own coaching, I deleted. But, suffice to say guys I outcoached last year would probably beat me if we played a high school season where practice time was limited. I am the details oriented defensive coach, and the players coach rah rah guys may have an edge in a Covid season.

The hard decision Danny has to make is what kind of guy is Brad, because I think there are guys in every sport that get you out of the basement (Mike Keegan, Billy Martin, Hubie Brown) guys that can take you the last step (Phil Jackson, Joe Torre, Glen Sather, even put Tommy H here) but are not good builders, and the rare few HOF guys that can do both (Red, BB, Scotty Bowman).
Is Brad the Builder Brad the Finisher?

My bet is Danny wants him to have a chance to practice next year, and play to his strengths, while replacing Grant et al.
 

Cellar-Door

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We’ve seen Thibs make ridiculous improvements in these areas at every one of his stops. Did we forget last years Knicks team so quickly? I’m no fan of the depth on this roster but these players aren’t hopeless.
Maybe? But I look at MIN as a team that was built around 2 young guys, and his first year there was not very good, and the effort on D was atrocious, it wasn't until Jimmy Butler showed up that they had a good year, then they immediately imploded.
 

bakahump

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So you dont have any idea what needs to be done differently?
Thats fine.
My and some others suggestion is to see what happens during a "normal" year. I dont know for sure that will work. But if I look at History when Brad has had a "Normal Year" his teams play very well AND Very HARD.

You have only suggested that Thibs (who do we know if he is even available for Next year???) would Make ridiculous improvements in this team, because he has done so at every other stop. Thibs (from my understanding) makes those improvements on the defensive side but as you say has a short shelf life and has never proven those Defensive changes are enough to win a title.
And Speaking of Thibs......didnt they fire him after a 50-32 season in Chicago? That worked out well with Hoiburg

So if No Thibs.......whos next? Who else would be a shoo in to make a ridiculous improvement for this team. How would HE make those improvements?

Might I also suggest that your "history of teams (with young players) improving when moving on to a "New Voice" at Head coach" could be because those young players Mature? Maybe they stop Partying. Maybe they just gain NBA experience of the grind.

So yea you might be absolutely right in that if we Hire Home Run Baker as Coach these players (Maybe Minus Smart and Kemba and Plus some other player) Next year they might win 54 games.
Or Next year Brad comes back with these same players (Maybe Minus Smart and Kemba and Plus some other player) and he might win 54 games.

Winning might have more to do with Tatum and Brown Maturing, then the "Fungible" head coach.

I suppose its always possible that "Firing the Coach Sends a Message". But I am not sure thats always a good message.
It can in theory send a message like "Well I guess I can come out flat....not work hard.....give up on plays and games at times and nothing is gonna happen to me."

I have had issues with CBS this year. I have had issues with DA this year. I have had issues with JASON TATUM this year. Placing all the blame at CBS feet and all our HOPE at the feet of some Unknown successor seems shortsighted to me.
 

Nick Kaufman

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Easier to replace the coach than 15+2 players. It's been a thing forever.
Replacing the coach instead of 15 players does make a difference if the problem is irreconcilable personal differences between the coach and the players.

If the problem is that the personnel isn't up to par or it doesn't mesh well, it doesn't solve anything other than giving fans false hope and the media something to write about.
 

DourDoerr

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CBS will be back next year and unless the bottom drops out, he'll last the full season. I think DA will be remaking the bench and I think Smart in particular is a goner. J&J need to be the leaders and Smart's in the way. His style is just too wild and gamble-ish to expect any consistency game to game and given that he's perceived as the team leader makes him a bad fit at this point. I also fully expect DA to find a beefy big guy, someone who can at least knock Embiid around and make him huff a little. Getting to the finals means pushing past the Sixers at some point and right now they don't have an answer for JE. Dropping down a double team doesn't work any more as Philly can hit 3's. I can't find it, but I believe there was a quote from DA around the trade deadline that seemed to confirm he knew the roster was too flawed to give CBS a fighting chance against certain matchups.
 

Nick Kaufman

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You raise an interesting question. Thibs and even Doc to some degree seem like good fits for very specific situations but let's generally say veteran rosters.

The thing is, a post-Stevens Celtics team is still presumably featuring a very young core. I get there are people who strongly believe Stevens isn't demonstrative enough to coach an NBA team to a championship but my sense is that style doesn't work as much with younger athletes these days.

.
I feel that the general knowledge we have to assess a coach's effectiveness is at an even lower level than when people looked at batting average instead of OBP and OPS to judge a batter's effectiveness.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I feel that the general knowledge we have to assess a coach's effectiveness is at an even lower level than when people looked at batting average instead of OBP and OPS to judge a batter's effectiveness.
It seems pretty simple to me. A coach is having a good year when his players are engaged and competing. The NBA regular season is not an X’s and O’s league......it is about connecting with your players to lead them and motivate them. You can look around the league to see which coaches are having good years and which ones are not fairly easily.

Lloyd Pierce was clearly having an awful year as the Hawks weren’t competing or engaged defensively at all. He was fired. The Hawks have completely turned around their season the day the coaching change was made. Everyone could see this if they were paying attention to the Hawks.
 

Cellar-Door

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It seems pretty simple to me. A coach is having a good year when his players are engaged and competing. The NBA regular season is not an X’s and O’s league......it is about connecting with your players to lead them and motivate them. You can look around the league to see which coaches are having good years and which ones are not fairly easily.

Lloyd Pierce was clearly having an awful year as the Hawks weren’t competing or engaged defensively at all. He was fired. The Hawks have completely turned around their season the day the coaching change was made. Everyone could see this if they were paying attention to the Hawks.
I don't think that's a good example at all....
Loyd Pierce was not considered a very good coach for one, but another is...
McMillan changed how they play on both ends, he made a much more structured play-centric offense, with more motion and screens than Pierce ran, on defense he went to a base with little rotation and switching.

I'd also not some personnel changed with guys getting back from injuries (including Bogdanovic) and them shipping out Rondo for Lou Will.

I think maybe there was an energy boost from McMillan coming in, but also, he's a good coach who replaced one who didn't show that much, had a bit different roster and who changed how the team played on both ends. It wasn't like he came in and played the same guys in the same system and just their increased effort changed things.
McMillan is actually a great example of why when you have a good coach who can effectively build a system for the talent, and communicate it, you should keep him. Because hot young assistants who can't do that (Pierce and Bjorken) like the one he replaced and the one who replaced him, may bring youth and energy, but if they can't bring a good plan for the talent and get execution they're going to fail badly.
 

Jimbodandy

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I don't think that's a good example at all....
Loyd Pierce was not considered a very good coach for one, but another is...
McMillan changed how they play on both ends, he made a much more structured play-centric offense, with more motion and screens than Pierce ran, on defense he went to a base with little rotation and switching.

I'd also not some personnel changed with guys getting back from injuries (including Bogdanovic) and them shipping out Rondo for Lou Will.

I think maybe there was an energy boost from McMillan coming in, but also, he's a good coach who replaced one who didn't show that much, had a bit different roster and who changed how the team played on both ends. It wasn't like he came in and played the same guys in the same system and just their increased effort changed things.
McMillan is actually a great example of why when you have a good coach who can effectively build a system for the talent, and communicate it, you should keep him. Because hot young assistants who can't do that (Pierce and Bjorken) like the one he replaced and the one who replaced him, may bring youth and energy, but if they can't bring a good plan for the talent and get execution they're going to fail badly.
I want to hump this post.

The fact that Nate McMillan was such a huge upgrade over Pierce tells you all you need to know about Pierce's tenure in Atlanta. Nate just provided some actual coaching.
 

Ed Hillel

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Jaylen being out for the playoffs will buy everyone another season for sure. I'd say next year is going to be the real hot-seat challenge. Both Danny and Brad are probably under legitimate evaluation next season. Didn't really think I'd be saying that with this core, but here we are.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't think that's a good example at all....
Loyd Pierce was not considered a very good coach for one, but another is...
This is kinda my point in that it isn’t very difficult to determine whether a coach is doing a good job or not.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Jaylen being out for the playoffs will buy everyone another season for sure. I'd say next year is going to be the real hot-seat challenge. Both Danny and Brad are probably under legitimate evaluation next season. Didn't really think I'd be saying that with this core, but here we are.
Yeah, there may need to be a separate thread about Danny's tenure because all of the points that people are making that could be reasons why Brad would go (not so much that he is bad, but just that new blood is sometimes valuable) I would say are equally applicable to Danny. He did an absolutely amazing job assembling the core they have, to the point where I really don't think anyone else could have handled it any better, but is he the person that can be creative enough to take them from "solid contender" to "legit title frontrunner"? He did a good job assembling a supporting cast during the early part of the Big 3 era, but those circumstances were a lot different.

In some ways it feels a bit like the Cherington/Dombrowski transition where Cherington had done a pretty good job assembling assets but it took Dombrowski to turn those assets into the best Red Sox team ever (it's not apples-to-apples, obviously, since Ainge is a better basketball GM than Cherington was a baseball GM, and Dombrowski mortgaged the Sox's future to put together that 2017/18 juggernaut in a way that hopefully any successor to Danny would not).

But, who knows - it's absolutely plausible that Danny nails the offseason and next year's team is amazing from the get-go. But if that's not the case, I think the "hot seat" talk will intensify pretty quickly.
 

bankshot1

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Just saw the Brown news.

perfect

That pretty much captures the essence of what this year has been.

But by all means let's fire Brad.

I've posted iterations of the following for most of the year.

I think this is an emotionally exhausted and physically depleted team. They played deep into the '20 post-season, no real off-season to heal, regroup, limited practice due to covid, and then a barrage of illness and injuries. And I don't blame anyone for Gordo wanting a fresh start somewhere else, , kemba's knee, Tatum's covid, GW 's sophmore suckage, and rookies playing (or not playing at all) like rookies, and now Brown's wrist.

This year has been pure shit-show.

 

Auger34

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I agree with all of this.

But people are pissed off. Yeah, Miami and Toronto also have good coaches and underperforming teams, but nobody wants to hear that. And we lost more games to covid than anyone else, but nobody wants to hear that either.

At the end of the day, what people want is to see the team performing at a high level, and they're not. We're underperforming the Vegas line. And most of us watched coaches get whacked for team underperformance ("can't fire the TEAM") for our whole lives. The fact that this is an unusual covid year, with the second youngest team in the league getting no practice time, and the team with the most covid games missed, and one of the teams that has made immensely deep playoff runs with no downtime, and the fact that the other teams meeting even a few (not all) of these criteria are also underperforming...this means nothing. We want HEADZzz.
All of this makes sense. It’s completely logical and it’s all true. I also want to say that I DO NOT think Brad should be fired.

I guess the bottom line for me is that all of the issues you listed above are the main reason for the teams struggles. However, they aren’t the only reasons. Continually starting important games with no energy or sense of urgency goes beyond what you typed. Yes, that’s on the players. However, it’s also on the coach.

The entire organization needs to take a long look in the mirror in the offseason. Brad’s not exempt from that.
 

Nick Kaufman

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It seems pretty simple to me. A coach is having a good year when his players are engaged and competing. The NBA regular season is not an X’s and O’s league......it is about connecting with your players to lead them and motivate them. You can look around the league to see which coaches are having good years and which ones are not fairly easily.

Lloyd Pierce was clearly having an awful year as the Hawks weren’t competing or engaged defensively at all. He was fired. The Hawks have completely turned around their season the day the coaching change was made. Everyone could see this if they were paying attention to the Hawks.
Do you know that there's research done in various leagues showing that mid season coaching changes have no effect on performance? Not to mention that coaching changes would tend to happen when teams experience the extreme margins of negative variance?

Since you play poker, it's similar to the so called cashout curse. A player withdraws money from a site, soon-after he starts losing. Do sites punish withdrawals? OR do players benefit positive variance, cash out and then experience reversion to the mean?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Do you know that there's research done in various leagues showing that mid season coaching changes have no effect on performance? Not to mention that coaching changes would tend to happen when teams experience the extreme margins of negative variance?

Since you play poker, it's similar to the so called cashout curse. A player withdraws money from a site, soon-after he starts losing. Do sites punish withdrawals? OR do players benefit positive variance, cash out and then experience reversion to the mean?
I don’t recall anyone ever calling for a mid-season coaching change with Brad. I’m good with a fresh start this offseason with both GM and Coach. I don’t feel it is likely but I feel we may be wasting a year of growth if we wait too long. I would be interested in reading such a report on midsession NBA changes.
 

SteveF

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I don’t recall anyone ever calling for a mid-season coaching change with Brad.
The point of the mid-season coaching change is to eliminate variables in testing for a coach's impact on a team. I don't know if you missed the point, but your response leaves me thinking that you did.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I don't think that's a good example at all....
Loyd Pierce was not considered a very good coach for one, but another is...
McMillan changed how they play on both ends, he made a much more structured play-centric offense, with more motion and screens than Pierce ran, on defense he went to a base with little rotation and switching.

Wait, as for the bolded, I've been told all year that you can't make these kinds of changes on the court. There's no PRACTICES!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How did McMillan pull it off in like a week?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Wait, as for the bolded, I've been told all year that you can't make these kinds of changes on the court. There's no PRACTICES!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How did McMillan pull it off in like a week?
Exactly. Even during normal seasons there are very few actual practices.
 

Bernie Carbohydrate

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CBS will be back next year and unless the bottom drops out, he'll last the full season. I think DA will be remaking the bench and I think Smart in particular is a goner. J&J need to be the leaders and Smart's in the way. His style is just too wild and gamble-ish to expect any consistency game to game and given that he's perceived as the team leader makes him a bad fit at this point. I also fully expect DA to find a beefy big guy, someone who can at least knock Embiid around and make him huff a little. Getting to the finals means pushing past the Sixers at some point and right now they don't have an answer for JE. Dropping down a double team doesn't work any more as Philly can hit 3's. I can't find it, but I believe there was a quote from DA around the trade deadline that seemed to confirm he knew the roster was too flawed to give CBS a fighting chance against certain matchups.
The "flawed roster" defense makes sense when discussing Brooklyn, Philadelphia and Milwaukee, the three best teams in the conference. But why can't our flawed roster overcome the Pelicans, Bulls, and Kings? I'll settle for Ainge and Stevens figuring out the matchups necessary to prevent the the Celtics from being curb-stomped by the godforsaken Pistons.

So CBS gets another year. Doug Collins circa 1989.
 
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Cellar-Door

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Wait, as for the bolded, I've been told all year that you can't make these kinds of changes on the court. There's no PRACTICES!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How did McMillan pull it off in like a week?
You can make some adjustments. McMillan's were pretty easy to make since on D he just basically went to... everyone play man, don't help, try not to switch, and it worked because a big problem was that they couldn't practice the more complex scheme and were just constantly making mistakes.

On offense, you can always slow things down and call more plays, offense is much easier to make those kinds of changes to, especially since a lot of it had to do with an emphasis on using clock, where Pierce wanted them to just go go go.

What you can't really do is build out a complex defense, so if the Hawks had the opposite problem... they were not switching, not helping or rotating and they were getting killed..... they wouldn't have been able to switch it up and go to a complex D effectively, there just isn't time to implement it.

The other big benefits they had were that they generally had a very steady group with most of their key guys finally healthy for most games post 3/2.

I do wonder if really the biggest change for them wasn't the coach change but Bogdanovic coming back healthy. He came back right at the coaching change and made a big impact.
 

Deathofthebambino

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You can make some adjustments. McMillan's were pretty easy to make since on D he just basically went to... everyone play man, don't help, try not to switch, and it worked because a big problem was that they couldn't practice the more complex scheme and were just constantly making mistakes.

On offense, you can always slow things down and call more plays, offense is much easier to make those kinds of changes to, especially since a lot of it had to do with an emphasis on using clock, where Pierce wanted them to just go go go.

What you can't really do is build out a complex defense, so if the Hawks had the opposite problem... they were not switching, not helping or rotating and they were getting killed..... they wouldn't have been able to switch it up and go to a complex D effectively, there just isn't time to implement it.
Aren't these literally the same adjustments we've been screaming for Brad to make throughout the entire year? Stop switching everything, so you don't end up with Kemba on Embiid, don't drop 5 guys into the paint trying to help and leave 3 guys at the arc waiting for a wide open pass, etc.?

On offense, run anything other than "Big set Pick, Tatum/Brown ISO after pick, everyone else stand in corner" offense that we've seen for pretty much 90% of the games?

Yes, I get that the C's have had continuity problems throughout the year. But, Jaylen and Tatum have missed half as many games as PG13 and Kawhi, and somehow, the Clippers are sitting at 45-23.

I don't think Brad should be fired this offseason, but I can't handle the excuse making. If the C's were going out there and beating the dregs of the league, and then getting beaten by the Nets, Lakers, Sixers, etc., I'd be the first guy in here talking about roster construction, injuries, etc. But the Celtics roster is better than the Pistons, it's better than the Cavs, it's better than the Kings, it's better than the Wizards (or at least it was until Westbrook turned into Superman), the Hawks were 14-18 when the C's lost 2 out of 3 to them in the middle of February. Our roster is better than the Bulls, who just stomped on us twice down the stretch in must win games.

The C's have played down to the level of their competition all season long. I can't blame that on roster construction or injuries or lack of practice time or age. This roster should have been able to roll out of bed and win 45 games this season. Unfortunately, I think they thought the same thing and played like it.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aren't these literally the same adjustments we've been screaming for Brad to make throughout the entire year? Stop switching everything, so you don't end up with Kemba on Embiid, don't drop 5 guys into the paint trying to help and leave 3 guys at the arc waiting for a wide open pass, etc.?

On offense, run anything other than "Big set Pick, Tatum/Brown ISO after pick, everyone else stand in corner" offense that we've seen for pretty much 90% of the games?

Yes, I get that the C's have had continuity problems throughout the year. But, Jaylen and Tatum have missed half as many games as PG13 and Kawhi, and somehow, the Clippers are sitting at 45-23.

I don't think Brad should be fired this offseason, but I can't handle the excuse making. If the C's were going out there and beating the dregs of the league, and then getting beaten by the Nets, Lakers, Sixers, etc., I'd be the first guy in here talking about roster construction, injuries, etc. But the Celtics roster is better than the Pistons, it's better than the Cavs, it's better than the Kings, it's better than the Wizards (or at least it was until Westbrook turned into Superman), the Hawks were 14-18 when the C's lost 2 out of 3 to them in the middle of February. Our roster is better than the Bulls, who just stomped on us twice down the stretch in must win games.

The C's have played down to the level of their competition all season long. I can't blame that on roster construction or injuries or lack of practice time or age. This roster should have been able to roll out of bed and win 45 games this season. Unfortunately, I think they thought the same thing and played like it.
I mean... no?
We've cut back some on the switching, but switching isn't really our issue, our issue is matching up in transition more than anything, and a non-switch defense is generally worse at that.
And the helping isn't rotations, it's bad decisions to help more than scheme.

That's what a lot of people have said about this whole year, it's not that we aren't playing the right defense, it's that our execution stinks.
I don't think Brad hasn't tried anything either, we played I think something like 5 times more zone than normal at points, we switched less (it didn't work) for a stretch.

The biggest problems with this team generally have been that we aren't playing good defense within any scheme (though also, not terrible either, it's just we're used to a good defense, this D is mediocre), it's just inconsistent.

As to offense... we don't run that much ISO, 10th in the league, down from 8th in the league last year (the big problem is we've been terrible at it, last year we were great tied for 3rd best PPP in the league, this year 22nd)... we run at least as much real offensive sets as ATL.... we just don't have many playmakers, and a lot of guys who can't get their own shot. Also, we just aren't executing.

This isn't to say Brad is blameless, but... there are plenty of indications that he's trying things to the extent he can given the lineup shuffles, and they just aren't working, because the problem is execution.

To me the stats say the same thing my eyes do.... we turn it over too much, we foul too much, we stink at transition D, we don't draw enough fouls (because we lack creative players) and we don't get out in transition enough (in part because we lack the type of passers you'd want). Those aren't generally things a different system will fix. At some point it's execution and changing the roster.

If Brad gets a changed roster next year and struggles I think it's fair for his seat to get hot.

The biggest thing to me is.... you can't have 3 PGs who aren't great playmakers, and have 2 of the 3 (Smart, PP) struggle with turnovers. That puts more playmaking on Brown, who is also not a top playmaker and has turnover issues. This team needs someone off the bench who can create easy shots.... also, you can't have all your bigs be turnover prone, and only 1 a capable passer, especially when none of them can create even a little offense for themselves.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Comparing the Celtics to the Clippers is a bad comparison imo. The Clippers have a huge talent advantage in terms of their roster versus the Celtics regardless of whatever metrics you want to use. Its much easier to weather the loss of your best players if you have at least league average replacements coming off the bench.
 

Deathofthebambino

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How does a team go from finishing 1st, 7th, 4th in defensive rating to 19th this season, with almost all of the same players?

Tatum missed 6 games last year. He's missed 7 this year.

Smart missed 22 games last year. He's missed 21 this year.

Brown missed 15 games last year. He's going to finish missing 14 games this year.

Kemba missed 16 games last year. He's missed 26 games this year.

Gordon Hayward missed 20 games last year.

Theis/Kanter started 78 games last year. Theis/Thompson have started 78 games this year and TL started another 13.

I know this is the COVID year, and we didn't get to see all of our guys play together, and they can't execute because they don't have enough minutes with each other, etc. And if this team dropped from say 4th to 10th in DRtg, I could accept that. But 4th to 19th, when last year, they basically missed a lot of the same amount of time as a group, shows me more than this is a team that forgot how to execute, or needed more reps with each other, etc. I certainly can't blame it all on Brad, guys fucking regressed and that's on them too, and their roster construction has flaws, no doubt, but that's not the entire story. This team has simply not worked hard enough and focused for 48 minutes in almost any game this year.

When a team is constantly coming back from 20+ down to make a game out of it, that tells me their roster construction is not the issue. They have the talent to play with almost anyone. What they don't have is the motivation or something to actually do so in every game (or any whole game for that matter). I hate CHB with the fire of a thousand suns, but he's right about one thing, when this team gets punched in the mouth, they don't punch back, and when their shots start falling, they start working hard on the other end. But God forbid their shots don't fall, it becomes a mopey, jog fest....
 

Cesar Crespo

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Because it's not all the same players. Even if it was all the same players minus 1, that 1 made a huge difference.
 

Cellar-Door

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How does a team go from finishing 1st, 7th, 4th in defensive rating to 19th this season, with almost all of the same players?

Tatum missed 6 games last year. He's missed 7 this year.

Smart missed 22 games last year. He's missed 21 this year.

Brown missed 15 games last year. He's going to finish missing 14 games this year.

Kemba missed 16 games last year. He's missed 26 games this year.

Gordon Hayward missed 20 games last year.

Theis/Kanter started 78 games last year. Theis/Thompson have started 78 games this year and TL started another 13.

I know this is the COVID year, and we didn't get to see all of our guys play together, and they can't execute because they don't have enough minutes with each other, etc. And if this team dropped from say 4th to 10th in DRtg, I could accept that. But 4th to 19th, when last year, they basically missed a lot of the same amount of time as a group, shows me more than this is a team that forgot how to execute, or needed more reps with each other, etc. I certainly can't blame it all on Brad, guys fucking regressed and that's on them too, and their roster construction has flaws, no doubt, but that's not the entire story. This team has simply not worked hard enough and focused for 48 minutes in almost any game this year.

When a team is constantly coming back from 20+ down to make a game out of it, that tells me their roster construction is not the issue. They have the talent to play with almost anyone. What they don't have is the motivation or something to actually do so in every game (or any whole game for that matter). I hate CHB with the fire of a thousand suns, but he's right about one thing, when this team gets punched in the mouth, they don't punch back, and when their shots start falling, they start working hard on the other end. But God forbid their shots don't fall, it becomes a mopey, jog fest....
Well looking at play type defense......

The Celtics are actually defending post-ups MUCH better than last year (makes sense, TT is good at postup defense, TL is decent, Theis and Kanter stink at it), PnR ball handler defense (not by much, but interesting), and ISO.
On the other hand they are MUCH worse against the roll man on PnR, that kind of vibes with what some have noted about TL sometimes chasing plays, and TT struggles to get back after he shows... also lots of blown switches. The other is a huge drop in spot-up defense... not surprising given what we've talked about in terms of going from elite at defending the 3 (so much so it chnaged the theory that 3pt% allowed was luck based) to just below league average.
 

lovegtm

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Because it's not all the same players. Even if it was all the same players minus 1, that 1 made a huge difference.
Maybe I'm missing your point but are you referring to Hayward, who basically didn't play in the playoffs, when they won 2 rounds and played even with Miami in the ECF?

Or Kemba, who was more limited offensively then than he has been this spring?

This year's team would have had trouble beating Simmons-less Philly last year. Something is really wrong.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Maybe I'm missing your point but are you referring to Hayward, who basically didn't play in the playoffs, when they won 2 rounds and played even with Miami in the ECF?

Or Kemba, who was more limited offensively then than he has been this spring?

This year's team would have had trouble beating Simmons-less Philly last year. Something is really wrong.
Hayward.

If Kemba left, I doubt it would have made much an impact at all. But that's another big difference too though. There's no Hayward and there's a hobbled Kemba.

I just think the "basically the same team as last year" thing is wrong.

It's like if the Mavs return the exact same team next year minus Doncic and wondering why they won 30 less games. "But it's basically the same exact team as last year."

It's Gordan Hayward. If all we lost was Wanamaker and Kanter, we'd be playing for the 1 seed.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah, the idea that this is the same team when...
1. We lost an All-Star caliber player in Hayward who could switch everything and guard 2-4.
2. Kemba has spent all year slowly coming back from knee issues
3. The Big rotation is entirely different
4. The backup PG slot went from a vet to a rookie
5. Our "top 5" unit has barely played together at all.

I look at last year's team and the 10 most played 4 man units all played over 300 minutes, and every one of them has a player in it who is not on the roster currently.
This year no units hit 300 minutes.

Digging through, 1 thing that also stands out.... I think Smart has fallen off a cliff in defending quick guards.
The Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Smart/Theis lineup played a decent amount both years... it TANKED this year,
The Kemba/Brown/Tatum/SEMI/Theis lineup played a decent amount both years.... it was significantly better on D this year.

Basically almost every lineup where Smart is with Kemba/Tatum/Brown are awful. But the ones where Fournier is in with Walker and Smart are actually pretty decent. Now some of that may be a skewed sample (30+ minutes which is decent for a 5 man unit, but all in 3 games). But my guess is part of it is Brown taking the bigger players and Fournier letting Smart handle them.

In terms of who is on the floor this is actually a pretty significantly different team, and the combinations available are different, especially with players out.
At the same time... it does appear that a few players have regressed, notably Smart and Grant (though in some units he's surprisingly good).
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, the idea that this is the same team when...
1. We lost an All-Star caliber player in Hayward who could switch everything and guard 2-4.
2. Kemba has spent all year slowly coming back from knee issues
3. The Big rotation is entirely different
4. The backup PG slot went from a vet to a rookie
5. Our "top 5" unit has barely played together at all.

I look at last year's team and the 10 most played 4 man units all played over 300 minutes, and every one of them has a player in it who is not on the roster currently.
This year no units hit 300 minutes.

Digging through, 1 thing that also stands out.... I think Smart has fallen off a cliff in defending quick guards.
The Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Smart/Theis lineup played a decent amount both years... it TANKED this year,
The Kemba/Brown/Tatum/SEMI/Theis lineup played a decent amount both years.... it was significantly better on D this year.

Basically almost every lineup where Smart is with Kemba/Tatum/Brown are awful. But the ones where Fournier is in with Walker and Smart are actually pretty decent. Now some of that may be a skewed sample (30+ minutes which is decent for a 5 man unit, but all in 3 games). But my guess is part of it is Brown taking the bigger players and Fournier letting Smart handle them.

In terms of who is on the floor this is actually a pretty significantly different team, and the combinations available are different, especially with players out.
At the same time... it does appear that a few players have regressed, notably Smart and Grant (though in some units he's surprisingly good).
I don’t disagree that this is a different team with different challenges......none of which should effect effort and basic execution though. There doesn’t seem to be any leadership which I’ll take a level further than Scal and CHB to say that goes beyond the players per its definition.
 

Cellar-Door

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I don’t disagree that this is a different team with different challenges......none of which should effect effort and basic execution though. There doesn’t seem to be any leadership which I’ll take a level further than Scal and CHB to say that goes beyond the players per its definition.
I don't think the effort is particularly bad with occasional exception, and execution 100% is effected by turnover, NBA defenses are a lot more complex than they look, and executing them takes familiarity, communication, experience and cooperation among the players on the court, which usually improves when a unit plays together more, it's why rookies are almost always terrible defenders, and experienced vets (outside of the terrible defenders like Jabari) pick up defense faster.

I think there are some issues that are on Brad, but a lot of it is player-based. There are two types of leadership you need in the NBA... 1 is the coach, the other is the on-court players. I think we're far more lacking in the latter... Kemba hasn't been the leader people hoped for (likely because he hasn't been the player people hoped for) and Smart is not a good on-court leader. Brown seems like the guy who would need to step up, but it's unclear if Tatum would accept that.

My hope would be that with some tweaks we see Brown and Tatum come back next year as more leaders and we see a refreshed team with more energy. If not... they'll probably think about firing Brad, though I'm pretty sure it wouldn't help much unless Brown and Tatum take that step (or it's accompanied by a major player turnover). There are things coaches impact and things they don't, and a lot of what our issues have been this year fall in the latter category to me.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think the team will be much better next year regardless of player movement, assuming they re-up Fournier and Nesmith continues to improve. I'd still like to see some player movement though.
 

JCizzle

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I don't think the effort is particularly bad with occasional exception, and execution 100% is effected by turnover, NBA defenses are a lot more complex than they look, and executing them takes familiarity, communication, experience and cooperation among the players on the court, which usually improves when a unit plays together more, it's why rookies are almost always terrible defenders, and experienced vets (outside of the terrible defenders like Jabari) pick up defense faster.

I think there are some issues that are on Brad, but a lot of it is player-based. There are two types of leadership you need in the NBA... 1 is the coach, the other is the on-court players. I think we're far more lacking in the latter... Kemba hasn't been the leader people hoped for (likely because he hasn't been the player people hoped for) and Smart is not a good on-court leader. Brown seems like the guy who would need to step up, but it's unclear if Tatum would accept that.

My hope would be that with some tweaks we see Brown and Tatum come back next year as more leaders and we see a refreshed team with more energy. If not... they'll probably think about firing Brad, though I'm pretty sure it wouldn't help much unless Brown and Tatum take that step (or it's accompanied by a major player turnover). There are things coaches impact and things they don't, and a lot of what our issues have been this year fall in the latter category to me.
I agree that it needs to be Brown. Tatum seems to have a lot of PG13 in him. Great, great player, but he's the type of guy who will pout when things aren't going well rather than rally the troops. A guy like CP3 in Kemba's spot would have this team as a top seed.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I thought last year in the playoffs vet leadership was missing and was part of the explanation for the persisitent fourth quarter swoons. I hoped that Kemba being healthy and TT would address that, and it is pretty clear that has not been the case.

It's really unrealistic to look at this year's performance and simply write it off as 'bad luck' or attribute solely to health. This team has underacheived throughout the year, and I don't think it is credible (at least for regular game-watchers) to pretend there have not been both consistency and intensity lapses on a too-regular basis.

Those things said, I'm not sure what to do next. I don't think Brad is a bad coach and suspect the most likely replacements are worse, not better. I don't think you can realistically swap out Tatum or Brown in a net-positive way (though especially if you imagine Bradley Beal, maybe?) While I understand the questions around how they play together, mindset, and such they also both improved on the court this year (imo). I think you have to wonder about options around Smart and Kemba, but those will be tricky pieces to move and get back value. You want Fournier back and we really have no idea his market or his perception of Boston/this team. I'm excited for TL, Nesmith, and even Langford development.

So I guess I'm neither highly optimistic or pessimistic about the next couple years, and as much as anything curious to learn by actions what Ainge thinks about where they are and what is missing.
 

lovegtm

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Hayward.

If Kemba left, I doubt it would have made much an impact at all. But that's another big difference too though. There's no Hayward and there's a hobbled Kemba.

I just think the "basically the same team as last year" thing is wrong.

It's like if the Mavs return the exact same team next year minus Doncic and wondering why they won 30 less games. "But it's basically the same exact team as last year."

It's Gordan Hayward. If all we lost was Wanamaker and Kanter, we'd be playing for the 1 seed.
I get your point, and I think Gordon Hayward is a really good player and it sucked to lose him.

But they played well without him last year, both in the regular season and the postseason. Not "championship contender" well (they were legit contenders with him healthy imo), but a lot better than playing for the 8th seed.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I get your point, and I think Gordon Hayward is a really good player and it sucked to lose him.

But they played well without him last year, both in the regular season and the postseason. Not "championship contender" well (they were legit contenders with him healthy imo), but a lot better than playing for the 8th seed.
They also played well at times this year. They just had next to no depth and it clearly took its toll on the team. Fournier arrived too late. While not a great defensive player himself, he would have saved other players energy on offense. Had Nesmith played all year like he has the last few games, the team would also be in significantly better shape.

For a long while, this team had 7 players (and PP) worth playing and 3 of them were bigs. On top of that, those 7 players missed a ton of games so they had to rely on JT and JB heavily during the early part of the year. This team has been snake bitten for awhile.

I don't think the coach matters much so if Brad stays or goes I don't care. I'd maybe appoint 20% of the season's crap to him. 40% to Ainge. 40% to bad luck (injuries, covid, variance of the 3 pointer).

If they bring back the same exact core and they all stay relatively healthy minus Kemba, this team is a 2 or 3 seed next season. JT/JB/TL/AN/PP are all players that should see some improvement next year ranging from incremental to huge (in AN's case). MS, EF and TT are known commodities. Kemba should provide some value too along the way but if the team is fully healthy, I don't think they need to rely on him as much. I'm not as high on Romeo (unfairly, too early to tell) and Grant but they could also see some growth.

Really, this team just needs health and for their pre 25 players to improve and not stagnate/decline. I was pretty gloom and doom awhile ago but EF is a great fit and AN has emerged as a player who should offer value at both ends or at least not be a huge liability.

I love the JT/JB/EF trio. I'd love to see them add to it while keeping Aaron Nesmith. Anyone else, I wouldn't hesitate to trade away. I'd actively be looking to dump Kemba and trade Smart though.

edit: It's not really a trio as EF is a role player. I just like him alongside the Jays.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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They also played well at times this year. They just had next to no depth and it clearly took its toll on the team. Fournier arrived too late. While not a great defensive player himself, he would have saved other players energy on offense. Had Nesmith played all year like he has the last few games, the team would also be in significantly better shape.

For a long while, this team had 7 players (and PP) worth playing and 3 of them were bigs. On top of that, those 7 players missed a ton of games so they had to rely on JT and JB heavily during the early part of the year. This team has been snake bitten for awhile.

I don't think the coach matters much so if Brad stays or goes I don't care. I'd maybe appoint 20% of the season's crap to him. 40% to Ainge. 40% to bad luck (injuries, covid, variance of the 3 pointer).

If they bring back the same exact core and they all stay relatively healthy minus Kemba, this team is a 2 or 3 seed next season. JT/JB/TL/AN/PP are all players that should see some improvement next year ranging from incremental to huge (in AN's case). MS, EF and TT are known commodities. Kemba should provide some value too along the way but if the team is fully healthy, I don't think they need to rely on him as much. I'm not as high on Romeo (unfairly, too early to tell) and Grant but they could also see some growth.

Really, this team just needs health and for their pre 25 players to improve and not stagnate/decline. I was pretty gloom and doom awhile ago but EF is a great fit and AN has emerged as a player who should offer value at both ends or at least not be a huge liability.

I love the JT/JB/EF trio. I'd love to see them add to it while keeping Aaron Nesmith. Anyone else, I wouldn't hesitate to trade away. I'd actively be looking to dump Kemba and trade Smart though.

edit: It's not really a trio as EF is a role player. I just like him alongside the Jays.
Aside from your apportioning blame - and not saying you are wrong but I have no idea how one could arrive at those numbers - I largely agree with everything written here with the exception of your desire to trade Smart. Smart's skillset is valuable to this team and, more to the point, trading him for value is likely to be challenging. That said, if there are chemistry issues with him and the Jays/the coaching staff (and to be clear, we have zero indication that this is the case) or if he can be included in a legitimate roster upgrade transaction, you move him ASAP. But you don't trade him just to move him or because of the "no, no, no..." feelings when he shoots - and yes, that feeling is relatable.
 

Fishy1

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Nov 10, 2006
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Agree with the above post. I think trying to point to one thing -- effort, play style, shooting (as I have), health, COVID, miscommunication due to limited play together, coaching struggles -- over any other one factor is the wrong thing to do.

All of these things have played a role, and sometimes it's not clear in an individual instance exactly what's wrong. There were times this season when I couldn't tell, for example, if Jaylen wasn't playing hard on defense or if he was just trying to avoid hurting his knee more. Take Fournier: I don't know if it's COVID recovery that's bothering him, or if he's just spent so many years on lackluster defenses that all the switching has him confused, because he's blowing assignments all over the place.

I'm still in the camp that thinks this team is better next year even just because of improvements from a few players: I expect another leap from Tatum, maybe another leap from Jaylen (at least in the volume of 3's he's taking, please God), and for Nesmith and Pritchard to contribute a lot more.

But a little bit better may not be enough. Ainge has two major dilemmas, and I don't think either of them are CBS: Kemba and Robert Williams. I think he's the kind of player you dream on, but once he's injured, you're stuck playing TT 30 minutes a game, and that's just not sustainable. TT has never been a rim protector, hasn't been durable for some time, so at this point I'm not sure I'd bet on his health. As others have pointed out, it's difficult enough to find excellent, durable players at that position without fielding two of them with these limitations.

Options? Jarrett Allen is up for his RFA. I expect Cleveland will try to pay him, but who knows. He would be the surest bet as a contributor of the players I've been thinkin about. Then there's Utah: Utah paid Derrick Favors quite a bit of money, but he's only getting 15 minutes a game over there, and he's still capable of challenging guys at the rim. He's got his own history of injury issues, of course, so I'm not sure I'd take him on except as a flier. Kelly Olynyk is a free agent, too: he's no good as a rim protector, but he offers a lot more on offense than TT does, and has been putting up some crazy numbers in Houston. There's Nerlens Noel, too. He might be another guy it'd be nice to give some run. Khem Birch is also an interesting player out of Toronto, and will be a free agent next year. It's also possible the Celtics stick with the Kornet--TT--Williams trio and end up being terrible defensively (again).

I hope the Celtics find a market for Kemba. I hope his resurgence is enough to convince some team desperate for offense to take him on. Because I honestly do not expect it to continue. Wrong side of 30, knee injury, small guard. The cliff is right there, and all it will take is a little push.

Smart's another problem. I think the team can use him, but not if Stevens starts him, and not if he regularly throws up 10-15 shots a game when there's plenty of other better options on the floor. He needs to be in the corner on offense and play 25 mpg. For all his playmaking ability and his ability to protect the ball, he continues to be an abysmal shooter. The only thing -- the only thing -- I find encouraging about his offense is that he appears to have gotten better around the rim the last three years. If he would just stop chucking up bad 3's, his percentages would head towards acceptable territory. But then, we're on year seven of him foisting up terrible shots, so I don't necessarily see that changing.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Aside from your apportioning blame - and not saying you are wrong but I have no idea how one could arrive at those numbers - I largely agree with everything written here with the exception of your desire to trade Smart. Smart's skillset is valuable to this team and, more to the point, trading him for value is likely to be challenging. That said, if there are chemistry issues with him and the Jays/the coaching staff (and to be clear, we have zero indication that this is the case) or if he can be included in a legitimate roster upgrade transaction, you move him ASAP. But you don't trade him just to move him or because of the "no, no, no..." feelings when he shoots - and yes, that feeling is relatable.
I have no clue if there are chemistry issues re Smart. I just think he's a bad fit on the court. I'm also not sure it would be that hard to get value for him anymore. He has the reputation and his 3 point shot is now passable. I'm not trading him just to move him, otherwise I would have put him in the dump column with Kemba. I'd look into a deal with Atlanta who was rumored to be interested. I'd gladly move him for Huerter, although I doubt that's actually a possibility.

Smart's game is unorthodox so he's not really "replaceable" in that sense. I do think there are plenty of players who can offer similar overall value and would be a better fit. If one of those players isn't available or teams are lowballing you for Smart, you extend him if the price is right.

If he's not interested in an extension and wants to be "Contract year Marcus Smart" I'd probably dump him for a bag of peanuts but I don't think that's going to happen.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think Smart needs to go. I never did before, but I am starting to see deterioration in footspeed, and Marcus as anything other than an elite defender 1-4 isn't a valuable player for this team. He's also a player who can probably bring you some value on his contract.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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My hope would be that with some tweaks we see Brown and Tatum come back next year as more leaders and we see a refreshed team with more energy.
JT/JB/MS have played a lot of basketball over the last several years given the playoff runs and the World Cup. It might not be the worst idea that they get bounced early, get vaccinated, and have a summer to rejuvenate.
 

Cesar Crespo

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JT/JB/MS have played a lot of basketball over the last several years given the playoff runs and the World Cup. It might not be the worst idea that they get bounced early, get vaccinated, and have a summer to rejuvenate.
Marcus Smart is also 27 years old and has played overweight most of his NBA career. I know 27 isn't old but he's not a spring chicken either. His body also doesn't seem the type to age well.

Next year he should be fine but his age 29-32 seasons could be ugly.