Tatum got the bag(5 years, $195 million)

RorschachsMask

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And Jaylen 4 spots above Tacko? Come on.

Wonder what it would look like if that system dropped everyone's highest and lowest.
For some reason, RAPM/PIPM/LEBRON have always been way too low on Jaylen. He’s 104 in LEBRON, which is clearly way off. I still like the stat, as I think it does a pretty good job with the top players, but obviously it’s far from perfect.

If we take that stat out of it, this is where he ranks in some other advanced stats.

RPM- 21
Nba.com’s PIE- 54
BPM- 34
VORP- 28
RAPTOR- 27

I think some advanced stats unfairly punish Jaylen for not being an elite impact player, but there’s more that goes into it than the player himself. I have him around 25ish, but won’t argue with anyone who has him a little higher or lower. Once you get past the top 15-20, the next tier of players is pretty fluid, IMO.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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For some reason, RAPM/PIPM/LEBRON have always been way too low on Jaylen. He’s 104 in LEBRON, which is clearly way off. I still like the stat, as I think it does a pretty good job with the top players, but obviously it’s far from perfect.
If I had to guess, it's because JB has low counting stats other than points and he doesn't have great on-off numbers.

LEBRON has JB something like 55-60-ish on offense but somewhere in the 400s on defense. They think JB's defensive "contributions" (and I use this word loosely) - rated at -0.54 - are similar to those of Kendrick Nunn (-0.55) and Cam Reddish (-0.53). LEBRON has JB's defensive ranking to be lower than Poku (-0.52), Marvin Bagley (-0.51), Anthony Tolliver (-0.49), Gallinari (-0.48), and Devonte Graham (-0.47).

They have Tremont Waters and Grayson Allen (both at -0.47) ranked ahead of JB.

In the spoiler are the 25 players clustered around JB in D-LEBRON rankings. I'm guessing there is not any adjustement for quality of opposition for the on-off component.

40439
 

RorschachsMask

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If I had to guess, it's because JB has low counting stats other than points and he doesn't have great on-off numbers.

LEBRON has JB something like 55-60-ish on offense but somewhere in the 400s on defense. They think JB's defensive "contributions" (and I use this word loosely) - rated at -0.54 - are similar to those of Kendrick Nunn (-0.55) and Cam Reddish (-0.53). LEBRON has JB's defensive ranking to be lower than Poku (-0.52), Marvin Bagley (-0.51), Anthony Tolliver (-0.49), Gallinari (-0.48), and Devonte Graham (-0.47).

They have Tremont Waters and Grayson Allen (both at -0.47) ranked ahead of JB.

In the spoiler are the 25 players clustered around JB in D-LEBRON rankings. I'm guessing there is not any adjustement for quality of opposition for the on-off component.

Good post. I hate defensive impact stats, it’s just too hard to measure. I’m in the camp that think Jaylen isn’t a very good defender, but the above is ridiculous.

I like using advanced stats, but only as a tool in how I view players. Just like raw stats can be misleading, the same could be said for advanced. I rank Tatum around 12ish, but if you look at the spread in his advanced stats rankings, it’s kind of all over the place. I like using a combination of advanced stats, raw, and eye test.

LEBRON- 9
LARAPM- 2
RPM- 43
BPM- 27
Wins added- 5
VORP- 18
PIE- 28
 

Cellar-Door

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Impressive for Tatum to be at #15. These rankings look biased towards bigs, though. Gobert at #7? Capela at #14?
Yeah Defense first bigs with bad backups are wildly overrated by LEBRON. If I remember right it uses an adjusted BPM for defense, and honestly Box score based defensive metrics have little value honestly, it's not a good way to measure defense.
 

Kliq

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I know its sacrilege on SoSH, but I could not care less about these advanced metrics. There is a new one that pops up every month and they all have giant flaws.
 

slamminsammya

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Yeah Defense first bigs with bad backups are wildly overrated by LEBRON. If I remember right it uses an adjusted BPM for defense, and honestly Box score based defensive metrics have little value honestly, it's not a good way to measure defense.
LEBRON uses boxPIPM as the prior and then does adjusted plus minus (no box score component) to compute a posterior. \

They also do some luck adjustments which, honestly, I am pretty skeptical about. They believe in this DIPS style theory that defenses have no control over opposing teams' 3P% so do some adjusting for that.

I think its bonkers and the height of "we can't find it in the data so it mustn't exist" math nerds hubris.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yeah Defense first bigs with bad backups are wildly overrated by LEBRON. If I remember right it uses an adjusted BPM for defense, and honestly Box score based defensive metrics have little value honestly, it's not a good way to measure defense.
Is there any advanced metrics that don't overrate bigs?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I know its sacrilege on SoSH, but I could not care less about these advanced metrics. There is a new one that pops up every month and they all have giant flaws.
They are certainly flawed but if you look at more than one and adjust for common sense (e.g. rotation and bench players who play limited minutes grading out in the top of the list) but taken as a whole, they really do generally agree with one another.

That said, most fans watch games so looking at the product of some numbers nerd's weekend project in addition seems superfluous. My enjoyment of the game is enhanced by seeing if my eye test matches up with the metrics, and more importantly, how the teams see the players. My understanding is that most NBA teams use data like this to make decisions at the margin - for me its interesting looking at their decision making process rather than just declaring "X won the deal or Y lost it"
 

Cesar Crespo

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I know its sacrilege on SoSH, but I could not care less about these advanced metrics. There is a new one that pops up every month and they all have giant flaws.
I took some flack earlier this year for saying any advanced metric that tries to sum a players overall value with 1 number is garbage.

I still stand by it.
 

Cesar Crespo

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They are certainly flawed but if you look at more than one and adjust for common sense (e.g. rotation and bench players who play limited minutes grading out in the top of the list) but taken as a whole, they really do generally agree with one another.

That said, most fans watch games so looking at the product of some numbers nerd's weekend project in addition seems superfluous. My enjoyment of the game is enhanced by seeing if my eye test matches up with the metrics, and more importantly, how the teams see the players. My understanding is that most NBA teams use data like this to make decisions at the margin - for me its interesting looking at their decision making process rather than just declaring "X won the deal or Y lost it"
The problem is common sense isn't very common.
 

Kliq

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They are certainly flawed but if you look at more than one and adjust for common sense (e.g. rotation and bench players who play limited minutes grading out in the top of the list) but taken as a whole, they really do generally agree with one another.

That said, most fans watch games so looking at the product of some numbers nerd's weekend project in addition seems superfluous. My enjoyment of the game is enhanced by seeing if my eye test matches up with the metrics, and more importantly, how the teams see the players. My understanding is that most NBA teams use data like this to make decisions at the margin - for me its interesting looking at their decision making process rather than just declaring "X won the deal or Y lost it"
I took some flack earlier this year for saying any advanced metric that tries to sum a players overall value with 1 number is garbage.

I still stand by it.
Perhaps I'm in a bit of a bubble, but the thing is I never come across people talking about RAPTOR/LEBRON/PIPPIN/SZCZERBIAK unless it is on this forum, or in the people who designed the statistics themselves. I never really hear any of the prominent NBA writers/podcasters I regularly consume, nor have I really heard of teams really using these stats. Basketball-Reference doesn't even carry them to my knowledge. It just seems like some stathead's pipedream of trying to create a WAR-equivalent for basketball, which I personally believe is impossible.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Perhaps I'm in a bit of a bubble, but the thing is I never come across people talking about RAPTOR/LEBRON/PIPPIN/SZCZERBIAK unless it is on this forum, or in the people who designed the statistics themselves. I never really hear any of the prominent NBA writers/podcasters I regularly consume, nor have I really heard of teams really using these stats. Basketball-Reference doesn't even carry them to my knowledge. It just seems like some stathead's pipedream of trying to create a WAR-equivalent for basketball, which I personally believe is impossible.
I can only speak for myself but aside from the predecessor for LEBRON (PIPM), I have rarely seen these metrics discussed in this forum. Most of the stuff I look at is referenced by writers like Lowe, KOC or on the socials.

That said, because something is difficult to measure does not mean its impossible. Thank goodness there are people out there who are flat out obsessed with trying to come up with more efficient metrics because, as we have seen in most aspects of life, efficiency is good.

Most of these metrics are unlikely to stand the test of time - they will evolve or fall out of favor - but I don't think they are going away in terms of how clubs use data for roster building.
 

Cesar Crespo

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So to be clear, you don't put much weight in advanced metrics and you really prefer to discuss your opinions here rather than data because its often flawed. Got it.
And you would just rather post LEBRON and act like it's the end all. See, we can both play that game. It sure makes for some good posting.

edit: Maybe I misread your post as extremely sarcastic, I dunno.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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And you would just rather post LEBRON and act like it's the end all. See, we can both play that game. It sure makes for some good posting.
This is garbage - I have never done that and I invite you to find a post where anyone here (not just me) said an advanced stat was the final word on anything.

Look, I apologize for posting data you don't like in the comments section of your personal hoops blog. It won't happen anymore.
 

slamminsammya

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I personally find what the metrics deem to be important qualities in a player often more interesting than the individual ratings themselves. Sometimes the insights are way off like the first generation of stats that thought offensive rebounds were basically the most important thing a basketball player could do. Now a lot of them are capturing the importance of passing and individual shot creation which I think is not unrelated to the move towards a more flowing and skilled game, in the sense that I do think teams saw this in the metrics and started valuing those attributes more than they had in the before times. And that is cool to me.
 

Cesar Crespo

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This is garbage - I have never done that and I invite you to find a post where anyone here (not just me) said an advanced stat was the final word on anything.

Look, I apologize for posting data you don't like in the comments section of your personal hoops blog. It won't happen anymore.
You are the one who has an issue with people not liking the stats. Maybe get over yourself. Did I say you couldn't use it? No. I said they sucked. You can use them all you want.

And I can find you using LEBRON 1000 times on this board, dude. You use it the most. It is your go to stat. Maybe do a search for your name with LEBRON and come back to me.

You are whining because someone is posting that they don't like your advanced stats in the comment section. How rich.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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You are the one who has an issue with people not liking the stats. Maybe get over yourself. Did I say you couldn't use it? No. I said they sucked. You can use them all you want.

And I can find you using LEBRON 1000 times on this board, dude. You use it the most.
What issue do I have? Cite it.

And I don't think I've posted 1k times to this board since LEBRON has been invented. Again, you and others have said you don't like the stat - it won't be cited anymore.
 

Cesar Crespo

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What issue do I have? Cite it.

And I don't think I've posted 1k times to this board since LEBRON has been invented. Again, you and others have said you don't like the stat - it won't be cited anymore.
So to be clear, you don't put much weight in advanced metrics and you really prefer to discuss your opinions here rather than data because its often flawed. Got it.

Hide behind your sarcasm. You clearly had an issue with it.
 

Kliq

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Alright I regret my original post. Friends, let's turn it down a notch.
 

slamminsammya

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Isn't LEBRON a black box anyway? There are so many advanced metrics I don't know which are which.
It is not. boxPIPM is the prior: https://www.bball-index.com/player-impact-plus-minus/

RAPM is mixed in with this to obtain a posterior: https://squared2020.com/2017/09/18/deep-dive-on-regularized-adjusted-plus-minus-i-introductory-example/

Certain box score statistics are padded with role-determined priors to reduce noise for low data players: https://kmedved.com/2020/08/06/nba-stabilization-rates-and-the-padding-approach/ (this is @bowiac I believe)

Then some other things are regularized to adjust for what bball index terms "luck" (controversial choices here). Here ya go https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-introduction/#:~:text=Put simply, LEBRON evaluates a,per 100 possessions on-court.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I know its sacrilege on SoSH, but I could not care less about these advanced metrics. There is a new one that pops up every month and they all have giant flaws.
I guess the word unreliable is what comes to mind. I will say that Jaylen’s grotesque defensive score above isn’t far from the eye test this year. Effort, execution, intensity.....he’s appeared really bad on that end and it’s good to see a metric that has captured this. If it was trusted universally then others around the league would notice this as well. I’m saying this as a big Jaylen guy too.
 

Auger34

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I can only speak for myself but aside from the predecessor for LEBRON (PIPM), I have rarely seen these metrics discussed in this forum. Most of the stuff I look at is referenced by writers like Lowe, KOC or on the socials.

That said, because something is difficult to measure does not mean its impossible. Thank goodness there are people out there who are flat out obsessed with trying to come up with more efficient metrics because, as we have seen in most aspects of life, efficiency is good.

Most of these metrics are unlikely to stand the test of time - they will evolve or fall out of favor - but I don't think they are going away in terms of how clubs use data for roster building.
Lowe and KOC have mentioned LEBRON before as a metric they use or have brought them up as data points when discussing players?

I listen to pretty much every podcast they are on and I don’t remember them referencing anything consistently other than cleaningtheglass.com (Ben Falk’s site) and a variety of stats theyve found there (mostly involving tracking data).

What advanced stats have you started looking that theyve deemed useful. I am always interested in checking out new data and stats but have found that it’s tough to find the ones that are any good
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Lowe and KOC have mentioned LEBRON before as a metric they use or have brought them up as data points when discussing players?

I listen to pretty much every podcast they are on and I don’t remember them referencing anything consistently other than cleaningtheglass.com (Ben Falk’s site) and a variety of stats theyve found there (mostly involving tracking data).

What advanced stats have you started looking that theyve deemed useful. I am always interested in checking out new data and stats but have found that it’s tough to find the ones that are any good
Apologies. I was referring to printed pieces. I am not an active listener of their pods.
 

bowiac

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LEBRON is also using BBall Index's "player role stuff" to influence the prior, not just boxPIPM (I helped Krishna put some of LEBRON together, and did most of the backtesting).

With respect to their luck adjustment as flagged by @slamminsammya - I agree this is DIPS-like, and drops meaningful data because we don't yet know how to quantify it. On the other hand, DIPS remains hugely influential (probably the most influential sports stat finding of my lifetime), and is like ~85% true in the purest Voros form. We're probably in a similar place on luck adjustments right now. We're losing meaningful signal by adjusting opposing shooting percentages, but mostly we're getting rid of noise, such that it's worth it on net.

In my testing, it's a good stat, in the top ~3 most predictive public metrics at predicting future game outcomes (along with my own DARKO, and Taylor Snarr's EPM). I do agree there's a somewhat unfortunate proliferation of these stats right now, which leads to some cherry picking to find the stat which best fits the narrative someone wants to tell. I don't really know the answer to that issue, and I'm not obviously not helping myself (although DARKO is a bit different, in that it's fundamentally predictive).

Some quick specific thoughts:

- I don't think RPM should be cited anymore. There have been some significant changes to the metric recently since the creator was hired by the Mavericks. Nobody has a real understanding of what the stat is doing anymore, and it doesn't perform well in testing.
- The same goes for RAPTOR. The stat has not held up well in out-of-sample testing, and is prone to wild swings in the playoffs in particular. I respect 538 a lot, but they're not an NBA shop, and don't seem to put in consistent effort to keeping RAPTOR reliable. They have also made some strange decisions in not running a true RAPM model here.
- BPM remains useful in my opinion for being a box-score-only metric. If you see a player doing well in BPM, but poorly in LEBRON or EPM, that's a sign that their on-off data is not very good for instance. It's helpful in adding interpretability to understand what's going on with some players. Note VORP is the same thing as BPM. It's just the counting stat version. Your VORP is a linear function of your BPM and minutes played.
- RAPM is likewise useful as a pure on-off stat. It's the complement to BPM, ignoring box stats entirely and just surmising how good a player is from on/off data.
- Nobody takes PIE seriously.
 

Kliq

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Jackie Mac said on her latest podcast with Simmons that RPM was the advanced stat that teams currently saw the most value in.
 

RorschachsMask

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Jackie Mac said on her latest podcast with Simmons that RPM was the advanced stat that teams currently saw the most value in.
I know you’re just forwarding what Jackie Mac said, but it’s just weird. RPM was good up until last year, but ever since the formula changed, it’s been really bizarre. The following players are below the top 25 in RPM.

Luka/Mitchell/Tatum/Towns/Kawhi/Zion/Beal. If it was just one or two of them I’d understand it, but that’s pretty hard to take seriously. The stat is all over the place, last year Tatum was 11, this year he’s 45.

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Jackie Mac said on her latest podcast with Simmons that RPM was the advanced stat that teams currently saw the most value in.
We don’t know the timeline of when Jackie had this conversation with a team exec/rep or with another writer who had this conversation with someone. This could very well be old intel. In fact, I’d probably expect it to be.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think that we need to define what "good" and "garbage" mean in the context of these statistics.

Even before RPM was tweaked, it was not SABR good. It wasn't even in the same zip code of good. It told us some things, drew attention to some guys that were either overrated or underrated. But it was all over the place a few years ago too.

Useful and directional doesn't make something good. If one of my friends were right 75% of the time about things, I might ask his opinion on my next new car choice and factor that in. But I wouldn't bother asking his opinion about which hospital should replace my hip or whether I should leave my wife because he's wrong 25% of the time.
 

Auger34

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We don’t know the timeline of when Jackie had this conversation with a team exec/rep or with another writer who had this conversation with someone. This could very well be old intel. In fact, I’d probably expect it to be.
Id go even further and say I’d bet every dollar I have that it is.

If bowiac, the best thing we have here in regards to NBA advanced metrics, is saying it shouldn’t be cited anymore then I put much more weight into that than something Jackie Mac says off the cuff.

In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if this conversation she cited happened over a year ago. I think these metrics are incredibly fluid and changing as NBA teams gain more understanding of and better at their models. (Since bowiac isn’t actually privy to the proprietary NBA data, I’d bet he’s a couple of months behind the curve in terms of the latest happenings himself...and thats months better than almost everyone)
 

TripleOT

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Second game in a row where help defenses limited Tatum to 3-17 shooting. He moved the ball well against it in the first half, for five assists, but had only one the second half as he pressed for his own shot.

Defenses probably won’t be able to load up on JT when he’s out there with Jaylen and Fournier, instead of Grant and Romeo. Tatum has shown he can make the right play against extra defensive attention, which is a good sign for the playoffs
 

reggiecleveland

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Talk me out of this, because I admit I worry about it.

But my eyes tell me Tatum is just deciding not to give the ball up, especially to certain guys.

I was going to put this in the Romeo thread, but in my time zone I have been watching the Warriors a fair bit. And what is most different is how Draymond, Curry want the bench guys to shoot. Watching the Cs over and over I see TT, Jabari (for a couple of games) Theis, Nesmith, Romeo, make cuts or run the floor in transition and I think "Steph passes to them there" or "on the warriors that's a layup". I get that Draymond likes to be miked up and play the mentor, but it is hard for me to believe we are missing moments where Tatum is sayin gto romeo or Nesmith, "Hey man you got to shoot that, I am gonna keep givin' it to you because I know you will make it." Now Kemba is a head down scorer and a small guy so he just doesn't see guys, and Brown is getting better and is learning the game still. But, Tatum seems to exhaust his chances to score before giving it up, and it seems pretty obvious some guys he only passes to to avoid a 5 second call.

COnvince me I am wrong, because I want to be wrong.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't know if you are wrong but some of it could be that his vision and playmaking abilities are lagging behind Curry and Draymond by a bit.
 

RorschachsMask

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Talk me out of this, because I admit I worry about it.

But my eyes tell me Tatum is just deciding not to give the ball up, especially to certain guys.

I was going to put this in the Romeo thread, but in my time zone I have been watching the Warriors a fair bit. And what is most different is how Draymond, Curry want the bench guys to shoot. Watching the Cs over and over I see TT, Jabari (for a couple of games) Theis, Nesmith, Romeo, make cuts or run the floor in transition and I think "Steph passes to them there" or "on the warriors that's a layup". I get that Draymond likes to be miked up and play the mentor, but it is hard for me to believe we are missing moments where Tatum is sayin gto romeo or Nesmith, "Hey man you got to shoot that, I am gonna keep givin' it to you because I know you will make it." Now Kemba is a head down scorer and a small guy so he just doesn't see guys, and Brown is getting better and is learning the game still. But, Tatum seems to exhaust his chances to score before giving it up, and it seems pretty obvious some guys he only passes to to avoid a 5 second call.

COnvince me I am wrong, because I want to be wrong.
This is just going to come down to stats versus perception/eye test. He’s 3rd on the team in assist rate, he is the only player of the top guys that passes the ball as much as he catches it, at 51/50. He passes to Pritchard 5% more than anyone else, he’s 4th on the team in passes to Romeo, behind Smart/PP/Kemba, he passes to Rob by far the most of anyone.

Part of this is he has the ball more than anyone, as his usage is slightly higher than Jaylen. But after that, it comes down to if you think the stats lie to a point. His vision definitely isn’t where Curry/Draymonds is, but that makes sense as he just turned 23. I believe he’s in the 94th percentile for playmaking amongst forwards, according to bball index. He definitely gets tunnel vision, and the ball sticks at times, but it’s just part of the growing process. I get it’s hard to be patient at times, but for his age and his position, he’s pretty advanced as a passer.

Like you say Jaylen is learning the game and getting better. I know Tatum has grown up a players son and all that, but he’s also a year and a half younger than Jaylen, so it’s safe to say he is learning the game and getting better as well.

Just for reference, here’s the link. You can click on any player, and it shows how often other players pass to them.

https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612738/passes-dash/
 
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reggiecleveland

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This may be comparing Duke Snider to Willie and Mickey. Being annoyed, you do not have the GOAT. I get those guys are elite at playmaking, but I also get a sense they are much better at encouraging teammates. As a Canadian guy I hear third hand gossip about how Wiggins feels a million times better this year than he ever did in the NBA.

This may be a Celtics thing. Maybe it wasn't All Kyrie.
I get a similar feel even from the Raptors games where guys like Anunoby, Boucher, seem to get involved earlier in their career. Even Siakim was a mess that still got touches as a young player.

A lot of those stats on Tatum are not at all surprising, and don't alter my opinion much. He is the one guy who can give the ball up and get it back. Frequently play he uses a ballscreen doesn't pass to the roller, make a pass to the wing, then there is an action where he gets it back. My eyes show me when it is certain guys he holds the ball longer, and even if he does pass it to Romeo, Nesmith, they usually have no option other than to swing it.

Also as the designated "I get every uncontested board to pad my stats" guy (also known as the RWB) would that effect his pass rate? As he coralls the uncontested board while the d runs back and flips it to Kemba or dribbles it up slowly and enters it, does that count as a pass, because that is 2-4 times a game (some nights more) of passes simply allotted him by his role/status.
 

RorschachsMask

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This may be comparing Duke Snider to Willie and Mickey. Being annoyed, you do not have the GOAT. I get those guys are elite at playmaking, but I also get a sense they are much better at encouraging teammates. As a Canadian guy I hear third hand gossip about how Wiggins feels a million times better this year than he ever did in the NBA.

This may be a Celtics thing. Maybe it wasn't All Kyrie.
I get a similar feel even from the Raptors games where guys like Anunoby, Boucher, seem to get involved earlier in their career. Even Siakim was a mess that still got touches as a young player.

A lot of those stats on Tatum are not at all surprising, and don't alter my opinion much. He is the one guy who can give the ball up and get it back. Frequently play he uses a ballscreen doesn't pass to the roller, make a pass to the wing, then there is an action where he gets it back. My eyes show me when it is certain guys he holds the ball longer, and even if he does pass it to Romeo, Nesmith, they usually have no option other than to swing it.

Also as the designated "I get every uncontested board to pad my stats" guy (also known as the RWB) would that effect his pass rate? As he coralls the uncontested board while the d runs back and flips it to Kemba or dribbles it up slowly and enters it, does that count as a pass, because that is 2-4 times a game (some nights more) of passes simply allotted him by his role/status.
There may absolutely be some truth to what you’re saying, but it also seems like you have a pretty set opinion on him, and that could impact your perception. I’m guilty of this with Jaylen at times, myself.

It takes time to learn the things you’re describing, and he’s in his age 22 season. If these things are an issue when he’s 25, then I’ll be legitimately concerned.
 
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bakahump

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Thats where Kemba and Co (TT maybe smart.....maybe Fournier) are so important. Scal mentioned it last night. "Kemba rewarding Nesmith". (Maybe it was "Including Nesmith").

Leading by example and encouraging JT (and JB) to be that guy you describe. Make the pass and dont worry about the results....they will come.

I think the only problem with JT (and JB) is that they are uber competitive. I know thats silly to say in a league of professional athletes. Maybe "Dont understand the (un) importance of a regular season game/possession in the grand scheme yet" is a better way to put it. IMHO (which is pretty basic...) I think alot of the problems we had about 10 games ago was that JT and JB where trying to do too much to the detriment of the team. We would lose....and they would try to do even more the next game....lose and Do even more. (remember the 22 second dribble out at the top of the key?)

Once he learns what Lebron, Curry and Draymond type vets know, Namely that Getting "Nesmith" confortable in game 16 or 46 so that he contributes in game 4 of the ECF is the goal, then he will be that much closer to the "ALPHA" his talent level suggests he should be.

I think he has improved (suprisingly The Parker signing seems to have helped.....along with getting some guys back) over this little streak. Hopefully it continues.
 

reggiecleveland

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No I am not. Look at the gamethreads, while people have been constantly declaring the season over, I see the light, think the team is pretty good. I consistently said I believed he has not recovered from Covid rather than some character flaw to explain his inconsistent performance. I want, desperately want him to be the best player in the league, but I have concerns. If they are going to get title he probably has to become a top 5 guy in the league. I think he scoring, and D are really close to this already, but worry about him making the entire team flow like true greats. Again being Bernard King and not Bird is not knock on the guy, but I would rather he was Bird.

He is the kind of guy I like, big for his skill set, plays d, etc. I admit I hate his body language and demeanor, but( As I know JD Drew was better than Trot) it is not overly important. (Kareem once said he is a couple hundred fist pumps from having Jordan's status) and I also get annoyed at the constant "Nobody else had X # of rebounds, points at this age" in that we are in higher scoring era where most defensive rebounds are freebees.

Full disclosure: I think Kobe was overrated, I mean not Jeter overrated, Jeter is Everest, but Kobe is at least Lhotse, so perhaps him training with, admiring Kobe, has me unconsciously worried. But, he was getting lots of class vs the SUns, so if he gets Kobe treatment from refs we may be on out way .
 

RorschachsMask

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No I am not. Look at the gamethreads, whil epeople have been constantly declaring the season over, I see the light, think the team is pretty good. I consistently said I believed he has not recovered from Covid rather than some character flaw to explain his inconsistent performance. I want, desperately want him to be the best player in the league, but I have concerns. If they are going to get t=a title he probably has to become a top 5 guy in the league. I think he scoring, and D are really close to this already, but worry about him making the entire team flow like true greats. Again being Bernard King and not Bird is not knock on the guy, but I would rather he was Bird.

He is the kind of guy I like, big for his skill set, plays d, etc. I admit I hate his body language and demeanor, but( As I know JD Drew was better than Trot) it is not overly important. (Kareem once said he is a couple hundred fist pumps from having Jordan's status) and I also get annoyed at the constant "Nobody else had X # of rebounds, points at this age" in that we are in higher scoring era where most defensive rebounds are freebees.

Full disclosure: I think Kobe was overrated, I mean not Jeter overrated, Jeter is Everest, but Kobe is at least Lhotse, so perhaps him training with, admiring Kobe, has me unconsciously worried. But, he was getting lots of class vs the SUns, so if he gets Kobe treatment from refs we may be on out way .
I think we want the same things, I’m just willing to give him time. He’s played like a borderline top 10 guy the last couple of months, and I think he’s gotten better about moving the ball/playing within the team offense. But how many guys already “get it” in their age 22 season? They are few and far between.

I’m with you on Kobe being overrated though, and I was a fan of watching him play.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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As a Canadian guy I hear third hand gossip about how Wiggins feels a million times better this year than he ever did in the NBA.
Wiggins better love it in GSW because Curry has so much gravity that the rest of the team are playing 4 on 3a lot of the game. Curry - and Poole - are getting wiiiide open looks and that's not just because they are making great individual moves.

JT isn't Steph Curry (newsflash). JT is a great scorer and has a lot of gravity but doesn't yet know where to find guys in the NBA. After all, he's 22 and this is really the first time he's been asked to make himself and everyone else on the team better. I think I saw on last night's broadcast that his assist % is way up, particularly recently. ( NBA.com has his season Ast% at 19.7%; but for last 8 games, it's 22.1%).

JT's not a finished product. At least, that's what I hope.
 

Auger34

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Talk me out of this, because I admit I worry about it.

But my eyes tell me Tatum is just deciding not to give the ball up, especially to certain guys.

I was going to put this in the Romeo thread, but in my time zone I have been watching the Warriors a fair bit. And what is most different is how Draymond, Curry want the bench guys to shoot. Watching the Cs over and over I see TT, Jabari (for a couple of games) Theis, Nesmith, Romeo, make cuts or run the floor in transition and I think "Steph passes to them there" or "on the warriors that's a layup". I get that Draymond likes to be miked up and play the mentor, but it is hard for me to believe we are missing moments where Tatum is sayin gto romeo or Nesmith, "Hey man you got to shoot that, I am gonna keep givin' it to you because I know you will make it." Now Kemba is a head down scorer and a small guy so he just doesn't see guys, and Brown is getting better and is learning the game still. But, Tatum seems to exhaust his chances to score before giving it up, and it seems pretty obvious some guys he only passes to to avoid a 5 second call.

COnvince me I am wrong, because I want to be wrong.
I think you are definitely right. There are possessions (it was noticeable last night because he had a pretty terrible night) where he absolutely thinks “I’m getting a shot up here no matter what happens”.

Every single end or half or end of game possession is like that. Last night he was trying to get going and took a few awful mid range floaters/jumpers (especially bad since Kemba was absolutely cooking and never got to touch the ball on those possessions).

What’s especially frustrating (to me, others seem to disagree) is that I think he absolutely has the capability to be a good playmaker and passer but there are way too many stretches where he decides that he’s going to be the guy no matter what
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Reggie's concerns are noteworthy because the poster has significant experience coaching young players. If anyone should understand how teenage and early 20s athletes think about hoops, its someone who deals with them in that precise context. My experience with people around this age is that they often have adult skills and physicality but are immature enough to get frustrated more easily than someone with experience.

The simple counter is that Tatum's APG have increased every season and have been trending up as the season moves along. He started the first 13 games of his season averaging just over 3.5 APG and now he is up to 4.4 after being more generous the past few months. Furthermore, his assist % is at a career high 20.4%.

In short, while the ball may stick, its trending in the right direction. Furthermore, since COVID seems to be at least partially to blame for some of his struggles earlier in the year, it figures that it would impact his playmaking as well. Finally, you simply cannot discount the impact of the C's subpar bench on the team's ability to move the ball. There certainly may be other things going on but its hard to look at the overall results over the past few weeks and not conclude that the roster upgrades via acquisition/health have made a huge difference in ball movement.

It sure looks like Tatum is more apt to pass to teammates when he trusts them to make the right play. Tatum is the constant so the variable has to be looked at closely here.
 

Devizier

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I am always nervous about assist numbers because they do tend to favor ball-dominant players. Even assist percentage is afflicted by this.

I tend to agree with reggie's observations here, and I know 1/10th what he does about basketball.
 

slamminsammya

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Yea, I think the raw assist numbers aren't doing anything to disprove this. As everyone has mentioned, he dominates the ball and really we are talking about missed opportunities. It is very possible he'd be at 6 or 7 APG if he was looking to pass more. There is an equilibrium there too, a marginal increase in his looking to pass might result in better shooting for himself as well, as guys become more reluctant to help off their guys to double him. Like, maybe he gets so aggressively doubled because teams have wised up to his one on one scoring ability, but it also might be because they know he will miss a lot of passes.
 

RorschachsMask

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When Tatum is in the game, the team has a 17% assist ratio, when he sits they have a 16.8% assist ratio. So the ball moves the same whether he is on the court or not. Their offense predictably falls off a cliff when he sits, but it’s crazy to what extent it does. Here is the offensive ratings for the team with the following players on and off the court.

Tatum: 114.5/106.3 +8.2
Jaylen: 113.4/109.9 +3.5
Kemba: 113.9/111 +2.9
Smart: 113.8/ 111.3 +2.5

Could he move the ball more? Absolutely, but I just don’t think it’s anything more than a minor issue as he learns how to play as an alpha.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Again, I don't like to look at data in isolation so I am only referring to raw data for trends. Its undeniable that he is assisting more but it is also pretty clear that he can improve in this area. It is worth noting that most of the star players we discuss here have had similar trajectories where their playmaking ceiling is realized later in their careers. At this point, the only thing to watch is if he plateaus as the C's continue to build around him but we have no evidence of that yet.
 
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