The Lead-off Spot

lurker42

New Member
Jul 15, 2005
173
Coming in to today, the Sox were hitting .283/.343/.474 as a team, but the #1 spot in the batting order has only hit .245/.281/.377. That .281 OBP is good for 27th in the majors out of the lead-off spot. I know it's early, but as long as Hernandez and Arroyo continue to bat lead-off there's no reason we should expect that to change a whole lot.

I like Hernandez and think he's a useful player, but with a .239/.311/.422 career batting line he should be a bottom of the order hitter. Arroyo's off to a nice start, and I suppose he's young enough that a big step forward is still theoretically possible, but the most likely outcome is he settles in to the ever-critical role of being the third-best utility guy on the roster.

Verdugo led off a lot last year which seemed to work well, but moving him up this year would mean either weakening the #2 spot or moving Martinez/Bogaerts/Devers from 3-4-5 to 2-3-4 (which Cora seems resistant to doing). Maybe give Vazquez a shot at batting second?

I know batting order doesn't matter much, but it continues to bug me a little that one of the team's worst hitters continues to get the most plate appearances.

I also know it's early to start thinking about trades, but adding a 2B or CF who can bat at the top of the order seems like it would be a meaningful addition.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
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Oct 20, 2015
33,252
Hope that Duran still hits and can handle CF OK in AAA.... that's the ideal answer.

Hernandez has been unlucky so far, I'm wiling to give him some rope for awhile longer. Arroyo is a decent answer if he keeps hitting like this, former top draft pick and still young but he's been shunned from the Giants and Rays for a reason, presumably.

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1382738610793893892


We knew leadoff hitter was going to be a hole on the team, give it time (and see if they are truly contending or not...).
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
4,660
Coming in to today, the Sox were hitting .283/.343/.474 as a team, but the #1 spot in the batting order has only hit .245/.281/.377. That .281 OBP is good for 27th in the majors out of the lead-off spot. I know it's early, but as long as Hernandez and Arroyo continue to bat lead-off there's no reason we should expect that to change a whole lot.

I like Hernandez and think he's a useful player, but with a .239/.311/.422 career batting line he should be a bottom of the order hitter. Arroyo's off to a nice start, and I suppose he's young enough that a big step forward is still theoretically possible, but the most likely outcome is he settles in to the ever-critical role of being the third-best utility guy on the roster.

Verdugo led off a lot last year which seemed to work well, but moving him up this year would mean either weakening the #2 spot or moving Martinez/Bogaerts/Devers from 3-4-5 to 2-3-4 (which Cora seems resistant to doing). Maybe give Vazquez a shot at batting second?

I know batting order doesn't matter much, but it continues to bug me a little that one of the team's worst hitters continues to get the most plate appearances.

I also know it's early to start thinking about trades, but adding a 2B or CF who can bat at the top of the order seems like it would be a meaningful addition.
Kiké’s not going to walk a lot, but he’s definitely not one of the team’s worst hitters. He’s chased a few in hitters’ counts with predictably bad results, but overall he’s been tremendously unlucky in the early going. He’s third on the team in hard-hit balls behind JDM and Raffy, and in the top 25 or so MLB-wide, tied with Nelson Cruz, Trevor Story and Juan Soto.

The plate discipline could be an issue. The Sox are dead last in the league in BB% from the leadoff spot (3.5%), which is unusual for us. But the game has evolved through a few so-called prototypical leadoff hitters, and I’m not sure who’d qualify anymore.

Kiké also has a lot of intangible leadership, character and cultural liaison skills. It’s not very sabermetric, but that has value coming out of a dismal season marred by Mookie’s absence and Cora’s punishment. I kind of read Kiké’s ascension to the top of the lineup, at least in the early going, as Cora’s endorsement of him as a spiritual leader who can set a new tone and direction for the team. That’s definitely a skill, but it shouldn’t obscure the fact that Kiké’s also really good. The numbers don’t reflect it right now, but he’s hitting better than he ever has over a full season.

40302
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,405
I don't expect this to be the route they take, but one possible trade candidate to consider would be this guy, who has been hitting leadoff (well!) and who doesn't make very much money. (That said, his team is in first place right now! They have the second-best record in the AL as I write this! It would make a lot of sense for them to keep him.)
 

RIrooter09

Alvin
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Jul 31, 2008
7,254
I would love if they tried Vazquez at the lead off spot. I know most people expect a speedster, but he’s got solid on base/contact skills and is one of the better hitters on the team.
 

lurker42

New Member
Jul 15, 2005
173
I don't expect this to be the route they take, but one possible trade candidate to consider would be this guy, who has been hitting leadoff (well!) and who doesn't make very much money. (That said, his team is in first place right now! They have the second-best record in the AL as I write this! It would make a lot of sense for them to keep him.)
The name that stuck out to me when I did a quick search was Starling Marte. Still only 32 and on the last year of his contract with a Marlins team that is unlikely to be competitive. Salary may be a hurdle, though.

I would love if they tried Vazquez at the lead off spot. I know most people expect a speedster, but he’s got solid on base/contact skills and is one of the better hitters on the team.
I floated the idea of hitting him 2nd behind Verdugo; as you mention, his contact skills could be useful at the top of the lineup.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
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Jul 20, 2005
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I'd just go Verdugo, Devers, X, JDM, Vaz, and plug and play for the last 4.
That's what I'd do. The Red Sox have four hitters who are much better than the rest of the lineup and should get the most at bats. Verdugo has the least power, so should go first to get driven in by the other guys.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
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That's what I'd do. The Red Sox have four hitters who are much better than the rest of the lineup and should get the most at bats. Verdugo has the least power, so should go first to get driven in by the other guys.
This is the obvious answer, but I don’t have a problem letting Hernandez continue to bat leadoff (at least for now) if the two right-handed power hitters both have hang-ups with batting second. (Devers strikes me as the least likely to care, but I don’t think you want two lefties hitting back-to-back.)

There has been a lot of analytical stuff over the years suggesting that you should have a power hitter batting second, especially with a DH in the lineup. But I’d rather give extra ABs suboptimally to Hernandez than get in the head of one of our best hitters.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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I don't expect this to be the route they take, but one possible trade candidate to consider would be this guy, who has been hitting leadoff (well!) and who doesn't make very much money. (That said, his team is in first place right now! They have the second-best record in the AL as I write this! It would make a lot of sense for them to keep him.)
It’s a good idea, and you’d figure Haniger would be on the block by the winter. The M’s have him one more year, but if he keeps this up it could be a fairly pricey one, and they’ll have four outfield prospects (Kelenic, Trammell, Rodriguez and Lewis) projected ready by 2022. I imagine there’d be a solid market for Haniger if he stays healthy, but if our Renfroe reclamation project fails, maybe a guy like Potts, Arroyo or Chavis could interest them if they let Seager walk.
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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Arroyo is a decent answer if he keeps hitting like this, former top draft pick and still young but he's been shunned from the Giants and Rays for a reason, presumably.
Just a quick historical point of clarification. Arroyo wasn't as much *shunned* by San Francisco, so much as he was the centerpiece in the trade for Evan Longoria.

It was a year and change after they had extended Brandon Crawford, and Joe Panik looked like the future at 2B. At the time of the trade, Arroyo had just posted a 1.000+ OPS in Sacramento, and SF was selling high on a blocked top-100 prospect to headline a package for a declining star. The package was really thin: they took on most of Longoria's (pretty reasonable) contract — ~5/$70m after the Rays kicked in $13m — and sent Arroyo, a 34 year-old Denard Span (?!?), and two meh pitching prospects who never cracked AAA. So for all intents and purposes, it was an Arroyo for Longoria swap.

Longoria has only been okay in San Francisco (5 rWAR in 3+ seasons), but that's still a pretty great deal for them. Tampa Bay, in return, got out from under an extension they couldn't really afford. Then Arroyo got hurt again in TB, and then again in Cleveland, and now he's here.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
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This is the obvious answer, but I don’t have a problem letting Hernandez continue to bat leadoff (at least for now) if the two right-handed power hitters both have hang-ups with batting second. (Devers strikes me as the least likely to care, but I don’t think you want two lefties hitting back-to-back.)

There has been a lot of analytical stuff over the years suggesting that you should have a power hitter batting second, especially with a DH in the lineup. But I’d rather give extra ABs suboptimally to Hernandez than get in the head of one of our best hitters.
Second-guessing myself: moving Hernandez from leadoff to the bottom third of the lineup would allocate 100-150 PAs over the full season from Hernandez to the people batting above him in the lineup. Even if you believe (as I do) that KH will hit better than he has, that’s a non-trivial upgrade. It’s probably worth a win somewhere along the way.

If having two lefties (Verdugo and Devers) bat 1st and 2nd is the way you get that upgrade without making any of your top hitters uneasy, I think you do it. With the three-batter rule, the back-to-back lefties is less likely to bite you (it’s still suboptimal, but I doubt it ends up costing you a game).

Of course, this is all built on my totally unfounded speculation that Devers might be more indifferent than JDM or X to his position in the batting order.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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May 23, 2014
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Others have mentioned it, but kiké has been massively unlucky. Baseball savant has his xBA at .290 and his xSLG at .616. He’s hitting the ball hard, only 12.8% of his contact qualifies as soft. If he’d gotten average luck so far, we’d be talking about how good he’s been. I think it’s fine to continue to let him hit lead off, because there’s a good chance his luck improves and his actual results match up to his expected results
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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Others have mentioned it, but kiké has been massively unlucky. Baseball savant has his xBA at .290 and his xSLG at .616. He’s hitting the ball hard, only 12.8% of his contact qualifies as soft. If he’d gotten average luck so far, we’d be talking about how good he’s been. I think it’s fine to continue to let him hit lead off, because there’s a good chance his luck improves and his actual results match up to his expected results
Not only unlucky, but he’s been equally improved against lefties as well as righties, who a lot of people thought he’d need a platoon for.

2021 vs. LHP: .430 xwOBA (behind Verdugo, Devers and Arroyo)
2021 vs. RHP: .358 xwOBA (behind Devers, JDM, Dalbec, Verdugo, Gonzalez and Bogaerts)
Career vs. LHP: .338 xwOBA
Career vs. RHP: .287 xwOBA
 
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