Four first round picks for... Justise Winslow?? (Ainge's drafting record)

lovegtm

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I would hope that when selecting 3rd you’d pick up star players but the Tatum moved was Auerbachian. Having TL and Romeo in the mix furthers my anger of passing on so many upside guys in favor of frontcourt plodders like Olynyk, Sullinger and Grant.
This anger is very reasonable. The Celtics have done a great job developing freak athletes with question marks; it might be one of the staff's better traits.
 

BigSoxFan

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To be fair, every single good player who goes later than 25th "fell into the lap" of the drafting team, since pretty much everyone else had a shot at the guy.
True but you still get bonus points for pulling the trigger. If people want to give the Spurs credit for Tony Parker, then Ainge needs to get credit for TL. I think the mid-round types like Langford and Nesmith are much more difficult calls because there is typically more talent available there and you are making a true evaluation whereas with a TL slider, the decision is generally a lot easier.
 

moondog80

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I would hope that when selecting 3rd you’d pick up star players but the Tatum moved was Auerbachian. Having TL and Romeo in the mix furthers my anger of passing on so many upside guys in favor of frontcourt plodders like Olynyk, Sullinger and Grant.
Olynyk was better than nearly everyone picked below him, and most of the guys picked above him. Yes, one of the exceptions to "nearly everyone picked below him" is Giannis, but there are 20 Kedrick Browns for every Giannis who grows 2 inches after being drafted and reaches his ceiling. Having a rotation guy on a rookie deal is pretty valuable, I don't mind going to the low ceiling/high floor guys sometimes.
 

lovegtm

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Olynyk was better than nearly everyone picked below him, and most of the guys picked above him. Yes, one of the exceptions to "nearly everyone picked below him" is Giannis, but there are 20 Kedrick Browns for every Giannis who grows 2 inches after being drafted and reaches his ceiling. Having a rotation guy on a rookie deal is pretty valuable, I don't mind going to the low ceiling/high floor guys sometimes.
It's a lot less valuable when you're in the rebuild stage the Celtics were in.
 

Cellar-Door

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It's a lot less valuable when you're in the rebuild stage the Celtics were in.
Getting the 8th best player in the draft at #12 is pretty valuable no matter what.


Overall though, I would say Danny is an above average drafter. My reaosning being... he's an average drafter overall, but he has really hit every top pick he's had (Tatum, Brown, even Smart). And to me that's the best thing to be. Average in the crapshoot that is the middle to late 1st, but up top where it's important to correctly figure out the possible stars he's nailed all of them (yes even Smart, tha draft was weak at the top)
 

moondog80

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It's a lot less valuable when you're in the rebuild stage the Celtics were in.
There's truth to that, but the stage you are in can change in a hurry. And even if it doesn't, you've got a nice trade chip. As it turned out, Olynyk was an nice, cheap role player for a team that went to the conference finals. And yes, they could have had Giannis or Rudy Gobert instead, but they also could have had Shabazz Muhammad, Lucas Nogueira, Shane Larkin, Sergey Kasarev, Solomon Hill, Reggie Bullock, Livo Jean-Charles, Andre Roberson...

The standard of a good drafter can't be "gets the best or second best player available every time".
 

Cesar Crespo

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To be fair, every single good player who goes later than 25th "fell into the lap" of the drafting team, since pretty much everyone else had a shot at the guy.
Yeah, it's total luck outside of the lottery. I don't really criticize Ainge for never hitting big outside of the lottery (Rondo, Al Jefferson) but he's been around so long you'd think one would have fell in his lap. He had to wait quite awhile but TL could be that guy.

What I do criticize about Ainge's drafting is his preference to draft high floors over high ceilings. A few of the high ceiling guys he's drafted in the past weren't even true high ceiling guys. JR Giddens, Fab Melo. Others were like Gerald Green and Kedrick Brown. I can see why he shied away from those types given his early failures but failing is part of the game. I'd rather they swing and miss at the next Giannis 100 times than draft Kelly Olynyk.

edit: Kedrick was Red, actually.
 

moondog80

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Yeah, it's total luck outside of the lottery. I don't really criticize Ainge for never hitting big outside of the lottery (Rondo, Al Jefferson).
I don't subscribe to b-ref so I can't run this search. But if you said "non-lottery guys form the last 20 years", I suspect that Rondo and Al would rank not top 5, but still reasonably high. And Terry Rozier is having a nice year...
 

Cesar Crespo

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This anger is very reasonable. The Celtics have done a great job developing freak athletes with question marks; it might be one of the staff's better traits.
Over Ainge's tenure, they weren't very good at first but it's been quite awhile since they missed on a freak athlete they've drafted. Rozier, Brown, TL. RL is too early to tell.

The only non freak they've drafted in that period that has really worked out well is Jayson Tatum. Ainge doesn't really draft freaks in the 2nd round either though there are probably far less freaks to draft.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Olynyk was better than nearly everyone picked below him, and most of the guys picked above him. Yes, one of the exceptions to "nearly everyone picked below him" is Giannis, but there are 20 Kedrick Browns for every Giannis who grows 2 inches after being drafted and reaches his ceiling. Having a rotation guy on a rookie deal is pretty valuable, I don't mind going to the low ceiling/high floor guys sometimes.
This isn’t really true. First, I didn’t want Giannis and wasn’t sold on him. I spent that night and the days leading to the draft screaming for Gobert.

Secondly, let’s not forget that Ainge MOVED UP to in that draft to trade for Olynyk while giving up a high 2nd round pick the following year. Players available at that a slot include.....Dinwiddie, Jeremi Grant, Jokic and Clarkson.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't subscribe to b-ref so I can't run this search. But if you said "non-lottery guys form the last 20 years", I suspect that Rondo and Al would rank not top 5, but still reasonably high.
That's why I mentioned them but they aren't superduper stars. Jefferson was also picked in 2004 and Rondo in 2006. That was a long ass time ago.

Since 2004, here are a list of guys in Al/Rondo's company or better drafted outside of the lottery. This doesn't include a lot of players with 20,000+ minutes. There are a lot of Batum's, Tony Allen's, George Hill, Robin Lopez's.
Josh Smith
Danny Granger
David Lee
Monta Ellis
Lou Williams
Kyle Lowry
Paul Milsap
Marc Gasol
Serge Ibaka
DeAndre Jordan
Goran Dragic
Jrue Holiday
Kawhi Leonard
Nikola Vucevic
Tobias Harris
Jimmy Butler
Bojan Bogdonavich
Evan Fournier
Draymond Green
Khris Middleton
Giannis
Rudy Gobert
Jerami Grant
Nikola Jokic
Terry Rozier- I should have mentioned him. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a better individual career than Rondo and Jefferson.
Montrezl Harrell
Norman Powell
Malik Beasley
Caris LeVert
Pascal Siakam
Dejounte Murray
Malcolm Brogdon
John Collins
Jarrett Allen
OG Anuoby
Thomas Bryant (maybe)
Dillon Brooks
-------
2018, too early to tell
Lonnie Walker
Kevin Huerter
Robert Williams
Jalen Brunson
Devonte Graham
Mitchell Robinson
Gary Trent Jr
Hamidou Daillo

2019, way too early to tell.
Brandon Clarke
Keldon Johnson

2020, without looking, I'm guessing the list is like 2 or 3 names.
None. I don't feel comfortable putting any of them on the list yet.


I'll say it again that I left a lot of comparable players to Rondo and Jefferson out. These are supposed to be players that are better. I can see some being debatable but the list is also in chronological order. If you want to argue Rozier isn't as good as Al or Rondo, ok. I don't think it changes the overall point much. After having just done that little exercise, I am fairly certain that Rondo and Jefferson aren't reasonably high on the list unless the list includes every single player drafted 15th and below. Teams have been hitting on more picks 15+ in recent years, too.



You don't need a b-ref subscription. I used b-ref and don't have a subscription.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2020.html just hit previous year. If you want to start at a certain year, just change the 2020 in the link to the specific year you want.
 

Cellar-Door

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This isn’t really true. First, I didn’t want Giannis and wasn’t sold on him. I spent that night and the days leading to the draft screaming for Gobert.

Secondly, let’s not forget that Ainge MOVED UP to in that draft to trade for Olynyk while giving up a high 2nd round pick the following year. Players available at that a slot include.....Dinwiddie, Jeremi Grant, Jokic and Clarkson.
Are we really complaining that Ainge traded a future 2nd to move up to draft a player who was better than most of the players drafted after him, and several of the players drafted above him?

Edit- the idea that a pick that was objectively plus value is secretly bad because he didn't hit the lotto on one of the only two guys drafted after who were better, or failed to draft an outlier (Jokic) who everyone passed on at least once is dumb.
It's like arguing that buying a house that is now worth 15% more was a bad purchase because you could have sunk it into scratchers like the guy nextdoor who won $1M off a scratcher.
 

nighthob

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Overall though, I would say Danny is an above average drafter. My reaosning being... he's an average drafter overall, but he has really hit every top pick he's had (Tatum, Brown, even Smart). And to me that's the best thing to be. Average in the crapshoot that is the middle to late 1st, but up top where it's important to correctly figure out the possible stars he's nailed all of them (yes even Smart, tha draft was weak at the top)
Ainge has been a very good drafter in the top third of the first round, which is indeed very good thing. He's also been pretty solid later in the draft, because in that crapshoot region (I usually identify that as 20-40) he turns up a lot of useful roleplayers where most draftees are outright busts. He even seems to have hit the jackpot with TimeLord at a late pick (but he's been good at these from the start, he has a long list of guys in that region that gave Boston useful play, Perkins, West, TA, Davis, and even Sullinger was useful until he ate his way out of the league).

Where he's a little more iffy, in my opinion, is in the middle of the first round. And it may just be because he doesn't have an overarching philosophy there. Sometimes he plays it safe in the mid first (Olynyk) and sometimes he swings for the fences (the disastrous James Young selection). His mid round hits (KO, Bradley) have been OK to good, the busts pretty awful. Drafting Young was bad enough, but holding on to him after his rookie season really killed Boston as it forced Ainge to pick draft & stash guys in 2016 in order to pursue his Durant dream.

If I do have an overriding critique of Ainge, though, it's this. He Ahabs too much over his Moby Dicks. It worked for him with Garnett, but holding on to the Durant and Anthony Davis dreams materially hurt Boston. Malcolm Brogdon was the embodiment of an Ainge pick in the crapshoot region of the draft in 2016 (Siakam was there too, but I doubt Ainge would have gambled on him), but he was determined to get Durant and punted the rest of the draft for the dream. Even though Durant turned out to be a ring chaser.

Similarly he held on to Kyrie in hopes of pairing him with Davis and convincing both guys to stay. Even though Kyrie was texting Brooklyn guys to let them know that he'd agreed to terms with the Nets and Davis had hired LeBron as his agent.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I know that Wallace and Papile like to spin that tale to avoid responsibility for their fuckups, but Brown was 100% Wallace. As was the decision to keep Brown over Joe Johnson.
Yeah, Even at the time the story was Red drafted Joseph Forte, not Kedrick Brown. Either way, Ainge was definitely not around yet.
 

lexrageorge

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Ainge has been a very good drafter in the top third of the first round, which is indeed very good thing. He's also been pretty solid later in the draft, because in that crapshoot region (I usually identify that as 20-40) he turns up a lot of useful roleplayers where most draftees are outright busts. He even seems to have hit the jackpot with TimeLord at a late pick (but he's been good at these from the start, he has a long list of guys in that region that gave Boston useful play, Perkins, West, TA, Davis, and even Sullinger was useful until he ate his way out of the league).

Where he's a little more iffy, in my opinion, is in the middle of the first round. And it may just be because he doesn't have an overarching philosophy there. Sometimes he plays it safe in the mid first (Olynyk) and sometimes he swings for the fences (the disastrous James Young selection). His mid round hits (KO, Bradley) have been OK to good, the busts pretty awful. Drafting Young was bad enough, but holding on to him after his rookie season really killed Boston as it forced Ainge to pick draft & stash guys in 2016 in order to pursue his Durant dream.

If I do have an overriding critique of Ainge, though, it's this. He Ahabs too much over his Moby Dicks. It worked for him with Garnett, but holding on to the Durant and Anthony Davis dreams materially hurt Boston. Malcolm Brogdon was the embodiment of an Ainge pick in the crapshoot region of the draft in 2016 (Siakam was there too, but I doubt Ainge would have gambled on him), but he was determined to get Durant and punted the rest of the draft for the dream. Even though Durant turned out to be a ring chaser.

Similarly he held on to Kyrie in hopes of pairing him with Davis and convincing both guys to stay. Even though Kyrie was texting Brooklyn guys to let them know that he'd agreed to terms with the Nets and Davis had hired LeBron as his agent.
I'm not exactly sure how the remote possibility of signing Durant in 2017 impacted Ainge's decisions in the 2016 draft. He could have still drafted Brogdon and still chased after Durant the following offseason. He would have happily eaten contracts to take on Durant if it came to that.

And I cannot blame him for not punting on the 2019 season; Kyrie was the team's best player at the time. But I do agree the Davis dream seemed like it was full of lead pipe by the time the trade deadline came around. At the same time, he would have looked totally silly had Davis later said in an interview that "Boston was one of the teams on my radar, but then they traded my good friend and best player for no reason".

EDIT: I don't have a problem with Ainge's draft record. He hit on the important ones. Still, a GM's career can be made by hitting on some unicorns. It would have been nice if some of the myriad of his 2nd rounders turned into a Draymond or a Jokic; or even a Doc Rivers.
 

slamminsammya

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I wish some journalist / data scientist worked out a deal with GM's to collect their final draft boards for like 20 years with an agreement not to reveal them publicly for a long time so we could have full data instead of just single data points of who was drafted.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Are we really complaining that Ainge traded a future 2nd to move up to draft a player who was better than most of the players drafted after him, and several of the players drafted above him?

Edit- the idea that a pick that was objectively plus value is secretly bad because he didn't hit the lotto on one of the only two guys drafted after who were better, or failed to draft an outlier (Jokic) who everyone passed on at least once is dumb.
It's like arguing that buying a house that is now worth 15% more was a bad purchase because you could have sunk it into scratchers like the guy nextdoor who won $1M off a scratcher.
Oh I’ve been 100% complaining about leaving Gobert on the board since I heard his name come out of the commissioners mouth that night: I’ve been complaining about a rebuilding team not only selecting a guy with the ceiling of a role player while leaving world class athletes/high upside guys on the board while actually giving up MORE assets for this right. Yes, Olynyk has consistently been my pet peeve as the biggest of Ainge’s goofs since that night.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I know that Wallace and Papile like to spin that tale to avoid responsibility for their fuckups, but Brown was 100% Wallace. As was the decision to keep Brown over Joe Johnson.
The only player I recall from Red’s later years that were “his guy” was Joe Forte. The same Joe Forte who was injured and sat on the end of the Celtics bench one night, prior to the dress code, in a Lakers jersey.
 

ManicCompression

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Part of the issue is that no one's draft record over almost 20 years is going to withstand this kind of scrutiny and our proximity to the misses make them more pronounced. The OKC Thunder have blown pretty much every first round pick they've had since Steven Adams in 2013. The Spurs obviously have some great stories, but we don't remember the Luka Šamanić picks or Nikola Milutinov or Livio Jean Charles. The Mavs are a pretty good org with some picks like Jalen Brunson in the second round, but they're not immune from Dennis Smith and Justin Anderson. Those are three of the most stable orgs in the NBA.

Ainge's conservatism can be infuriating, but it's pretty clear that he wants to hit singles and doubles with most picks and then sometimes go for big swings when he's playing with house money. Personally, I wish he'd shake his addiction to large, ground bound big men and short guards, but he definitely knows how to find players that stick in the NBA almost better than anyone else.
 

BigSoxFan

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The only player I recall from Red’s later years that were “his guy” was Joe Forte. The same Joe Forte who was injured and sat on the end of the Celtics bench one night, prior to the dress code, in a Lakers jersey.
When I saw Forte literally cry into Bill Guthridge’s arms after a rough summer league game, I knew we had picked a winner...
 

nighthob

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I'm not exactly sure how the remote possibility of signing Durant in 2017 impacted Ainge's decisions in the 2016 draft. He could have still drafted Brogdon and still chased after Durant the following offseason. He would have happily eaten contracts to take on Durant if it came to that.
Durant was a free agent that summer, if he drafted guys that were not staying overseas he wouldn't have had the cap room to sign Durant and Horford. We've discussed this for years here.

I don't have a problem with Ainge's draft record. He hit on the important ones. Still, a GM's career can be made by hitting on some unicorns. It would have been nice if some of the myriad of his 2nd rounders turned into a Draymond or a Jokic; or even a Doc Rivers.
Neither do I, he has a good record in the crapshoot part of the draft and even has multiple hits out of the Powerball section (41-60). He'd've even had one more had Orien Greene's agent not made a stupid decision (Ainge offered Greene's agent a guaranteed deal if they'd let him out of the draft promise (he wanted to draft Amir Johnson), but the agent told Ainge that if he didn't draft Greene that they weren't signing with Boston). That combined with nailing his top ten picks is a sterling record.

But, he has observable tendencies. With multiple picks in the crapshoot range he tends to choose one safe player and then gamble on upside. Sometimes that works out (Tony Allen in '04) and sometimes it doesn't (Gabe Pruitt in '07). With one pick in that range he gambles more on physical upside. Sometimes that works out (TimeLord) and sometimes it doesn't (JR Giddens). It's really in the mid first where he's all over the table. Sometimes it's high school/former high school All Americans with the right athletic profile (Avery Bradley, Gerald Green, James Young) and sometimes it's safe guys with little to no upside (Olynyk). But if that's the price you pay for the rest of the draft record then you shrug your shoulders because it's important to nail the high picks and get roleplayers with the later ones.
 

moondog80

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The only player I recall from Red’s later years that were “his guy” was Joe Forte. The same Joe Forte who was injured and sat on the end of the Celtics bench one night, prior to the dress code, in a Lakers jersey.
I thought it was a Scooby Doo jersey? Or did he do both?
 

nighthob

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The only player I recall from Red’s later years that were “his guy” was Joe Forte. The same Joe Forte who was injured and sat on the end of the Celtics bench one night, prior to the dress code, in a Lakers jersey.
The part that pissed me off most of all is that Wallace broke his draft promises to Parker and Arenas to select Forte. (For you young'uns, Boston had given draft promises to both guys thinking that at least one of them would make it #21. Instead both of them were sitting there and Wallace went with Forte anyways because he thought that Forte had more upside.) Agent Zero playing for Jim O'Brien would have been worth the price of admission. Coming out of the 2001 draft with (and keeping) Joe Johnson and Gilbert Arenas would have made Ainge's job oh so much easier.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The part that pissed me off most of all is that Wallace broke his draft promises to Parker and Arenas to select Forte. (For you young'uns, Boston had given draft promises to both guys thinking that at least one of them would make it #21. Instead both of them were sitting there and Wallace went with Forte anyways because he thought that Forte had more upside.) Agent Zero playing for Jim O'Brien would have been worth the price of admission. Coming out of the 2001 draft with (and keeping) Joe Johnson and Gilbert Arenas would have made Ainge's job oh so much easier.
Heh, avoiding Arenas might have been a good thing.

Who was the other Bullet involved in that fiasco?
 

TripleOT

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One big Ainge mistake was the promise to JR Giddens. Pick DeAndre Jordan, and the last few KG seasons might have played out differently, with a big, active big body to do the heavy lifting inside so KG didn’t have to.

Ainge hit grand slams on both #3 picks and did well at 6 with Smart. Those a
 

nighthob

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Heh, avoiding Arenas might have been a good thing.

Who was the other Bullet involved in that fiasco?
The problem there wasn’t Arenas, it was the other guy, Javaris Crittenton. Delonte West got picked up around the same time for driving around with a violin case of loaded weapons while Andray Blatche accidentally shot himself with a loaded weapon.

Of the four players it was Arenas, who never carried a loaded weapon, that got the worst punishment. He got 30 days for possession of a firearm within DC. West got eight months house arrest. Blatche got nothing as did Crittenton. The latter being the guy that had loaded weapons in the Wizards’ clubhouse and had credibly threatened to murder Agent Zero. Crittenton’s also the guy now doing 25 years for murder and cocaine trafficking.
 

scottyno

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Ainge has a very good track record of getting among the best available players with his 1st round picks

Just going by winshares, looking at the players that could have been drafted instead:

2019: Grant Williams- Only 4 players taken after him the rest of the draft have more WS, yeah he's not great but there was no great to take, Langford it's way too early to tell anything given injuries

2018: Rob Williams- Only 2 players taken after him with more WS, Brunson and Robinson, I'm sure none of us would trade TL for Brunson, Robinson is debatable but at worst he got the 2nd best player available to date, home run

2017: Tatum- You could debate if he's the best player in the whole draft, but no matter what home run pick

2016: Yabu sucked, Zizic wasn't much better, but we all know why they were drafted, so kind of need to ignore this one because Ainge's hands were tied, and he hit a home run with Brown

2015: Only a handful of guys taken after Rozier ended up better, 2 in the rest of first round. Hunter sucked, but no stars to even miss on

2014: Young sucked, but hitting on Smart cancelled that out some

2013: Only 3 guys taken the rest of the draft after Olynyk were better, yeah 2 were superstars, but hard to argue for getting this pick wrong

2012: Melo sucked, Sullinger was one of the best guys available, and the best taken in the rest of the round

You can go back further but it's largely the same, maybe he didn't often draft who ended up being the best or 2nd best guy available, but he usually drafted one of the handful of best available, and he has 2 mid/late 1sts that vastly exceeded expectations, and a 3rd that is hopefully on the way.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Ainge has a very good track record of getting among the best available players with his 1st round picks

Just going by winshares, looking at the players that could have been drafted instead:

2019: Grant Williams- Only 4 players taken after him the rest of the draft have more WS, yeah he's not great but there was no great to take, Langford it's way too early to tell anything given injuries

2018: Rob Williams- Only 2 players taken after him with more WS, Brunson and Robinson, I'm sure none of us would trade TL for Brunson, Robinson is debatable but at worst he got the 2nd best player available to date, home run

2017: Tatum- You could debate if he's the best player in the whole draft, but no matter what home run pick

2016: Yabu sucked, Zizic wasn't much better, but we all know why they were drafted, so kind of need to ignore this one because Ainge's hands were tied, and he hit a home run with Brown

2015: Only a handful of guys taken after Rozier ended up better, 2 in the rest of first round. Hunter sucked, but no stars to even miss on

2014: Young sucked, but hitting on Smart cancelled that out some

2013: Only 3 guys taken the rest of the draft after Olynyk were better, yeah 2 were superstars, but hard to argue for getting this pick wrong

2012: Melo sucked, Sullinger was one of the best guys available, and the best taken in the rest of the round

You can go back further but it's largely the same, maybe he didn't often draft who ended up being the best or 2nd best guy available, but he usually drafted one of the handful of best available, and he has 2 mid/late 1sts that vastly exceeded expectations, and a 3rd that is hopefully on the way.
Thank you for this.

As slamminsammya noted upthread, we simply aren't privy to enough information including the team's draft board, how they view their current and long term needs as well as other color (its seems like player opinion carries weight in many organizations with stars preferences the most obvious factor).

It feels like some people here think they have a handle on these things but between deliberate misinformation, reporting bias etc, I'm not sure media reports are that accurate. "Sources close to the team" color is suspect as well to me for similar reasons. Its not hard to imagine that draft boards are probably hotly debated within many clubs so we may only be getting one of many perspectives.
 

ColonelMustard

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Here are the players selected from pick 20 to pick 30 for a deeper look at Boston's opportunities. (source https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2019.html)

Here are the players I would swap directly for Grant Williams: Thybulle, Clark, Bazley, Poole, Porter, Johnson. You had two opportunities out of 11 to pick one of these 6 players.

Ainge's draft record is good, especially where it matters most, but (IMHO) the tail end of the 2019 draft was mismanaged.
 
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