Pats QB Options

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nighthob

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If every Alabama QB is susceptible to a bust status, where does that land Fields? Ohio signal callers do not turn out that much better, no?
Thats not what he's saying, he's saying that the Tide are a de facto pro team playing at the NCAA level, which makes their QBs look better than they are. And let's be honest, Mac Jones was throwing to a much better receiving corps than Cam Newton.

That's definitely not the same situation as OSU. Fields may or may not end up being a bust. But if he had been Alabama's QB last year he might have been QB1 this year.
 

nighthob

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the 2020 receivers were better than the 2019 receivers, and the run game and OL were much better.

Cam apologists were annoying when he wasn't on this team. Yea he wasn't the whole problem but he was easily the largest piece of the pie. Even his numbers are misleading as he piled on in a very pointless week 17 Jets game. He had 5 touchdowns and a 78 rating before what was essentially a preseason game.
Yea, no, the 2020 WR corps was even worse than the 2019 one. And the 2019 receiving corps was the fourth best in the Pac12. The best WR on the 2020 squad holds the dubious distinction of being the NFL's only thousand yard receiver without a TD. Jakobi Meyers should never be leading an NFL team in receptions. And, sadly, NE's TE corps was even more execrable than the WR one. There's a reason that New England just cleaned house on the receiving corps, it's because they sucked.
 

SMU_Sox

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I don't think they'll go skill either. OL or D.
I agree and if they trade down or pick in the late first early second I could see Alex Leatherwood and Landon Dickerson being great IOL fits (maybe they see Leatherwood as a tackle) in gap/power. Landon Dickerson is one of my favorite guys in this draft.

I'm finally getting into the top 30 prospects and it's been a lot of fun.

I'd be ecstatic to get LB Parsons (may fall for personal traits concerns) or Owusu-Koramoah (most likely be there at #15) as someone to replace HT eventually. Getting DE Kwity Paye (love the name) would be terrific too.

On the OL, no chance at the top 2 guys but could Derrisaw be available when BB makes the first pick? If not, Teven Jenkins could be the next Logan Mankins at either guard or tackle:

View: https://youtu.be/O1jlLUWjwDo
Darrisaw might be available but I would be shocked if he got past both the Chargers at 13 who need a LT and the Vikings who could use him as a guard or an OT. If Darrisaw is available he imo should be the pick. Scheme versatile OT.

Dude Teven Jenkins makes me laugh with joy. He is such a badass. I love the guy. He is also a scheme fit for the Pats as imo a gap/power guard. If he can play RT that's good but if he can't... they could keep Onwenu at RT and put Jenkins in at LG.
 

djbayko

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It has long been assumed, but the massive move in the betting lines on Zach Wilson for #2 pick makes it pretty clear people in the know have info that the Jets are a lock to pick him there. There was speculation last week that both MIA trades were based off the knowledge (SF wanting to get their 3rd QB, Eagles knowing that they couldn't get Wilson who was the only QB they'd trade up for).
It’s no one in the know.
The lines moved as a result of the MIA trades and the rumor surrounding them which you mentioned. (The odds moved within a couple hours, partially helped by people I know)

It may be good information, but it’s nothing more than what you and I know.
 

Cellar-Door

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It’s no one in the know.
The lines moved as a result of the MIA trades and the rumor surrounding them which you mentioned. (The odds moved within a couple hours, partially helped by people I know)
Maybe, but it was an awful big move, and those odds are in line with what you get when a pick is known. Vegas always knows.
 

E5 Yaz

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A second round pick is traded for a second round pick, gets injured often and apparently loses the faith of team management to the point where they spend capital to get in position to draft his replacement ... and they want a first?

Okay
 

snowmanny

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And if that story is accurate, they presumably put the first round pick price on Garoppolo to indicate how much they value him and how willing they are to go into 2021 with him as the starting QB.

But I would guess that it doesn’t feel that was to Jimmy. This is just another piece of data that they are willing to move on from him very soon, in fact they would move on immediately if some other team wanted him. Oh but, for some reason we aren’t going to make it that easy to take him off our hands. That has to be irritating.

Again, the 49’ers can do this, but it will be the number one story about the team every day unless
1) they are winning the vast majority of their games;
2) the new guy comes in and beats out Jimmy.
 

Cellar-Door

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And if that story is accurate, they presumably put the first round pick price on Garoppolo to indicate how much they value him and how willing they are to go into 2021 with him as the starting QB.

But I would guess that it doesn’t feel that was to Jimmy. This is just another piece of data that they are willing to move on from him very soon, in fact they would move on immediately if some other team wanted him. Oh but, for some reason we aren’t going to make it that easy to take him off our hands. That has to be irritating.

Again, the 49’ers can do this, but it will be the number one story about the team every day unless
1) they are winning the vast majority of their games;
2) the new guy comes in and beats out Jimmy.
I don't think it will be. He's Jimmy G not a good QB. Other teams will settle on their QBs, and it will be no more an every week story than Fitz was last year. Mediocre vets who get to start over rookies aren't a real story once the season starts.
Jimmy G will be a story only until a few teams settle on QBs (possibly as soon as the draft). And then maybe he'll pop up again if someone gets hurt. Overall though, outside of maybe NE where people need to fill radio hours or column inches and a portion of the fanbase hasn't paid much attention to his post NE career, Jimmy is basically a non-entity as far as most people are concerned at this point. He might as well be Tyrod Taylor.
 

Bowser

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A second round pick is traded for a second round pick, gets injured often and apparently loses the faith of team management to the point where they spend capital to get in position to draft his replacement ... and they want a first?
Don't forget the $27M cap hit!
 

Phil Plantier

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He's Jimmy G not a good QB
Sorry to single this out, but he's not Nathan Peterman (sorry to single Nathan out). Last year Mike Sando's canvas of NFL people had Jimmy G as the 17th-ranked QB (out of 35). He's prime Andy Dalton with health issues. And 25m is a decent QB contract: we've been spoiled by Cam's flexibility/desperation.

It would not surprise me if someone offered a 28-35ish pick for Garoppolo.
 

Cellar-Door

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Sorry to single this out, but he's not Nathan Peterman (sorry to single Nathan out). Last year Mike Sando's canvas of NFL people had Jimmy G as the 17th-ranked QB (out of 35). He's prime Andy Dalton with health issues. And 25m is a decent QB contract: we've been spoiled by Cam's flexibility/desperation.

It would not surprise me if someone offered a 28-35ish pick for Garoppolo.
I assume that was before last year? I think opinion was probably much higher on him coming off the only full healthy productive season of his career. Another poor and injury plagued season, and the addition of and breakout of a bunch of other QBs has dropped him down the list.
 

67YAZ

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Under his current deal, the only realistic landing spot is Denver - a QB upgrade makes them strong playoff contenders and they have roughly $23.5m in cap space right now, which isn't even enough to take JG on without reworking his deal. The other teams with sizable remaining salary are either drafting a QB (Jags, Jets, likely Panthers) or have their guy (Colts, Lions, Bengals, Chargers, and seemingly Washington but maybe not?).

So it all hinges on what JG is willing to do with his contract. If he thinks the 9ers are serious about keeping him, riding it out at full salary this year and hitting the market next March is very attractive. If he thinks he may get cut, then working out restructure/extension to facilitate a trade makes sense, but it's going to be a multi-year deal with significant guarantees because JG will have leverage in the situation.

Denver is the only likely trade partner, but their interest has to be dampened by needing to negotiate a new deal for JG in a situation where he'll have leverage. (Or, quite possibly, Denver has quietly sounded out JG's agent and don't see a deal they like.) So the only real options are for the 9ers to roll with JG as a bridge this season and enjoy $24.2m in cap space next spring or cut him soon. This 1st round pick request doesn't mean much of anything.
 
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lambeau

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Jimmy has at least two risks: getting cut in August, with no money, no job; or inevitably getting benched in November when the 49ers have lost a couple of tough NFC West games, and suffering mere reputational damage. Clearly he's better off getting a fresh start now. The Pats trained him, probably value him more highly than others, and have a great need. They won't get a first round pick; Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area suggests Chase Winovich and a 3rd round pick.
 

JM3

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Not 100% sure I would trade Winovich for Jimmy G straight up unless you're getting an amazing discount on a contract.
 

Phil Plantier

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Not 100% sure I would trade Winovich for Jimmy G straight up unless you're getting an amazing discount on a contract.
I guess we have a very different opinion of what Garoppolo might be. I think he's a player that would improve the QB situation the 6 out of 9 teams that lose out on Lance/Fields/Jones (NE, HOU, DEN, NYG, WAS, PHI, CHI, CAR, NO). I don't think he gets traded for less than a 2nd round pick until after the draft.

Given no NE QB, I'd make your suggested trade and feel great about it.
 

tims4wins

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I guess we have a very different opinion of what Garoppolo might be. I think he's a player that would improve the QB situation the 6 out of 9 teams that lose out on Lance/Fields/Jones (NE, HOU, DEN, NYG, WAS, PHI, CHI, CAR, NO). I don't think he gets traded for less than a 2nd round pick until after the draft.

Given no NE QB, I'd make your suggested trade and feel great about it.
This was pointed out already but:

He was drafted in the late second round.
He was traded for an early second round pick.
Since then, he has done nothing to improve his stock; he has gotten injured multiple times, and been a decent QB when healthy, and is getting paid more than he is worth.

So how is he all of a sudden worth more than a second round pick? If I'm the Pats I'd probably give up 139 for him at best, and that's only because the Pats have 4 picks from 96-139.
 

Cellar-Door

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I guess we have a very different opinion of what Garoppolo might be. I think he's a player that would improve the QB situation the 6 out of 9 teams that lose out on Lance/Fields/Jones (NE, HOU, DEN, NYG, WAS, PHI, CHI, CAR, NO). I don't think he gets traded for less than a 2nd round pick until after the draft.

Given no NE QB, I'd make your suggested trade and feel great about it.
I look at that group and I'm not at all sure I agree, because cost and health matter.

I don't know that he's a better QB straight up than Bridgewater, Fitz, Dalton or Jameis. I think I'd rather have all of those at their cost than Jimmy G on his salary and the picks you give up. HOU isn't paying Jimmy G unless they trade Watson, otherwise the $ makes no sense (even then, how much better is Jimmy than Tyrod?). PHI just traded down from a spot where they were highly likely to get one of the top QBs, if they like Hurts enough to pass on one of these QBs, they like him enough not to trade a premium pick for the right to pay Jimmy G a lot of money.
That leaves NE (I wouldn't trade much for Jimmy, he's better than Cam, but the money matters), DEN (this makes sense, but not at the cost of a good pick, they'd be better off trading up an guaranteeing a rookie), NYG I guess? But is that team really a contender right now? It doesn't feel like it.

That's the problem... sure Jimmy G if he's healthy is an upgrade on the assortment of very cheap QBs these teams have, but that's kind of the point, those teams in part chose not to spend a ton of money or assets on mediocre QBs. Jimmy G is a health risk and mediocre. You can win with a mediocre QB, but it's a lot harder to win with a mediocre QB if you're paying on the higher end of market for him and you give up good picks.

Edit- to be more clear... the problem with trading for Jimmy G is if you're rebuilding, 2/52 for a QB who has 1 full year, and isn't anywhere near elite isn't a good building block, you'd rather look to the draft or wait it out. If you are a win now team, Jimmy is a moderately interesting upgrade if QB is an issue, but his lack of reliability makes you wary (exactly the reason SF is looking to move on) of paying him.
 
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Phil Plantier

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This was pointed out already but:

He was drafted in the late second round.
He was traded for an early second round pick.
Since then, he has done nothing to improve his stock; he has gotten injured multiple times, and been a decent QB when healthy, and is getting paid more than he is worth.

So how is he all of a sudden worth more than a second round pick? If I'm the Pats I'd probably give up 139 for him at best, and that's only because the Pats have 4 picks from 96-139.
I understand the reasoning, but:
  • Past costs have nothing to do with current demand
  • This is an ahistorical reading of the trade. Garoppolo was on a much shorter contract, and the return was so small because, allegedly, Belichick wanted to put him in a good situation.
 

JM3

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I guess we have a very different opinion of what Garoppolo might be. I think he's a player that would improve the QB situation the 6 out of 9 teams that lose out on Lance/Fields/Jones (NE, HOU, DEN, NYG, WAS, PHI, CHI, CAR, NO). I don't think he gets traded for less than a 2nd round pick until after the draft.

Given no NE QB, I'd make your suggested trade and feel great about it.
The Patriots have $12.6m in cap space right now per Miguel.

Trading Winovich saves about $600k taking it to $13.2m.

Jimmy G costs $25m if you trade for him under his current contract. Where are we getting another $11.8m? The only work around is a restructure of the contract. That means either JG has to take a paycut...or we have to give him a bigger multiyear deal with a fair amount of guarantees which artificially deflate the 1st year & kick his cap hit into the next 2-4 years after, which will tie us to him for a few years.

I'm not willing to give up assets to pay Jimmy G full market value based on the 2/$50m he has left.

If he wants to take a Cam deal, awesome, but why would he do that when the 49ers have to pay him his full current salary to keep him on the team? & if they aren't willing to pay him his full current salary, they would necessarily cut him, meaning the Patriots could pick him up for free if they had the best offer for him.

I just don't see the delta of:

1) Value being high enough that the 49ers will keep him & not save $25m by cutting him.

&

2) Patriots can reasonably afford him with their cap situation at that rate/wanting to give up assets to pay JG lots of $.

Cam may not be like good at football, but I'd rather have (Cam + $17m) than (Jimmy G - assets).
 

RedOctober3829

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The Patriots have $12.6m in cap space right now per Miguel.

Trading Winovich saves about $600k taking it to $13.2m.

Jimmy G costs $25m if you trade for him under his current contract. Where are we getting another $11.8m? The only work around is a restructure of the contract. That means either JG has to take a paycut...or we have to give him a bigger multiyear deal with a fair amount of guarantees which artificially deflate the 1st year & kick his cap hit into the next 2-4 years after, which will tie us to him for a few years.

I'm not willing to give up assets to pay Jimmy G full market value based on the 2/$50m he has left.

If he wants to take a Cam deal, awesome, but why would he do that when the 49ers have to pay him his full current salary to keep him on the team? & if they aren't willing to pay him his full current salary, they would necessarily cut him, meaning the Patriots could pick him up for free if they had the best offer for him.

I just don't see the delta of:

1) Value being high enough that the 49ers will keep him & not save $25m by cutting him.

&

2) Patriots can reasonably afford him with their cap situation at that rate/wanting to give up assets to pay JG lots of $.

Cam may not be like good at football, but If rather have (Cam + $17m) than (Jimmy G - assets).
Jimmy does not have to take a pay cut. They can convert salary to signing bonus and NLTBE incentives which would lower his cap number to as low as between $5 million and $6 million.
 

JM3

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Jimmy does not have to take a pay cut. They can convert salary to signing bonus and NLTBE incentives which would lower his cap number to as low as between $5 million and $6 million.
Right...& then next year his cap hit is $44m?
 

RG33

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I would do a 3rd round pick with the contingent JG signs a 2-year extension that brings his AAV down to 15-18m and lowers his cap this year to $5-7m. Aside from that, I think I’ll wait for the 49ers to cut him. . . .
 

DourDoerr

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They won't get a first round pick; Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area suggests Chase Winovich and a 3rd round pick.
That'd be an amazing haul for SF. He was traded for a 2nd at the zenith of his potential and a few years younger. Now, Maiocco thinks an older, oft-injured QB who has revealed a modest ceiling (with great weapons) is worth a young vet who has value to NE's D and a 3rd rounder? Dream a little dream.
 

tims4wins

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I understand the reasoning, but:
  • Past costs have nothing to do with current demand
  • This is an ahistorical reading of the trade. Garoppolo was on a much shorter contract, and the return was so small because, allegedly, Belichick wanted to put him in a good situation.
You are correct that it doesn't really matter, but he is inarguably worth less now than he was 3.5 years ago at the time of the trade, for a variety of reasons (health, contract, performance). And that will be proven out when no one gives SF a 1st, or a 2nd.
 

Captaincoop

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That'd be an amazing haul for SF. He was traded for a 2nd at the zenith of his potential and a few years younger. Now, Maiocco thinks an older, oft-injured QB who has revealed a modest ceiling (with great weapons) is worth a young vet who has value to NE's D and a 3rd rounder? Dream a little dream.
That's not happening. He ends up cut very soon. Niners will sit until the draft and hope someone gets anxious and throws them a 4th or 5th round pick.
 

axx

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That'd be an amazing haul for SF. He was traded for a 2nd at the zenith of his potential and a few years younger. Now, Maiocco thinks an older, oft-injured QB who has revealed a modest ceiling (with great weapons) is worth a young vet who has value to NE's D and a 3rd rounder? Dream a little dream.
Patriots should have gotten a first for him.

That's not happening. He ends up cut very soon. Niners will sit until the draft and hope someone gets anxious and throws them a 4th or 5th round pick.
If SF trades Jimmy now they would then need a new QB to be the bridge guy. You're going to have to overpay.
 

E5 Yaz

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Bumping this from the other day in search of further responses

All these posts with reasons for the 49ers to shed JG (and his contract) read to me as though they have an undercurrent of wish-fulfillment to them.

So, if they can't win a Super Bowl with him, or they can't count on him to stay healthy for a full season, or he wouldn't be happy as a placeholder or competing for a job ... my question would be:

Why should the Patriots want him? Because he showed promise with them briefly five years ago (before getting hurt)? Because he was a binky? Because they shouldn't have traded him in the first place?

Why is there are reason to believe that he would be any more than he's shown at SF if he were to return to the Patriots?
 

lambeau

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Maiocco based his proposal on the Alex Smith trade when he was supplanted by Mahomes,
a third round player and a third round pick--ironically, the player was Kendall Fuller, who as much as anybody ruined Jimmy's life with an INT and near-INT PBU in the 4thQ of SB54.
 

brendan f

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Bumping this from the other day in search of further responses
It's all about acquisition cost. The Patriots are not going to trade significant assets for him. I'm not sure if they should want him. I can see why they would want him because he knows their system and at one time seemed the obvious heir to Brady's throne. There is reason to think he still has "upside" in the right system with the right coaching minus some of the injury "luck" (I'm putting this in quotes since I think there is a case to be made the injuries are more than bad luck at this point). If they do want him it would be for many of the same reasons they brought in Cam--the cost was low and the player had upside.

But I don't expect the Patriots to make a move for him anytime soon. While it's conceivable (not very) he stays on SF's roster and has a bounce-back year, it seems more likely his situation is going to end up in turmoil. Better, and--in my mind--more fun to let things play out and call SF on what seems like a bluff. Remember, if SF had any faith in him they wouldn't have traded a boatload of assets to move up for a quarterback who easily might have been there at 12 for them (I'm going with their pick is Jones). They panicked, and they panicked because they like their team but not their quarterback.
 

DourDoerr

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Patriots should have gotten a first for him.
Maybe, but that has nothing to do with a trade now. He was traded for a 2nd rounder and I don't think his performance since warrants a favorable reappraisal.

Maiocco based his proposal on the Alex Smith trade when he was supplanted by Mahomes,
a third round player and a third round pick--ironically, the player was Kendall Fuller, who as much as anybody ruined Jimmy's life with an INT and near-INT PBU in the 4thQ of SB54.
That at least makes some sense in that he didn't pull the trade proposal out of thin air. Alex Smith didn't become a star until KC so there are some parallels in performance, but to compare durability, Smith was Fran Tarkenton to Garappolo's, well, Jimmy Garappolo.
 
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SoxinSeattle

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Patriots should have gotten a first for him.



If SF trades Jimmy now they would then need a new QB to be the bridge guy. You're going to have to overpay.
Why should they have gotten a first for a small college QB picked in the second round that had shown six quarters of decent football? I have never understood this belief.
 

Captaincoop

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Patriots should have gotten a first for him.



If SF trades Jimmy now they would then need a new QB to be the bridge guy. You're going to have to overpay.
They're currently slated to pay him $25M to be a caddy for a highly drafted rookie. That doesn't work for either party, regardless of current posturing. They could fill that temporary role for 10% of the cost. Something will give.
 

Shelterdog

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They're currently slated to pay him $25M to be a caddy for a highly drafted rookie. That doesn't work for either party, regardless of current posturing. They could fill that temporary role for 10% of the cost. Something will give.

One quibble. The caddy will cost more like 25% or more of that. QBs are so fucking expensive in the NFL.
 

Cellar-Door

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They're currently slated to pay him $25M to be a caddy for a highly drafted rookie. That doesn't work for either party, regardless of current posturing. They could fill that temporary role for 10% of the cost. Something will give.
I don't think that's accurate. They're slated to pay him $25M to be the starting QB.

There is no real reason to doubt that the rookie will at the very least start the season on the bench, and if the rookie turns out to be so amazing he forces Jimmy to the bench SF will be happy with that. Only way you end up unhappy if you're SF is if Jimmy gets hurt again, or is so bad you have to go to the rookie.

If we really think Jimmy G is good enough that a team should trade for him to be their starter at that money, why would he be the caddy for a rookie.... rookies are bad, they don't usually start because they are good, they start because they have no real competition.

It's the real flaw in the whole discussion.... if Jimmy is good enough that a team would happily pay him 26M to be their starter, that means he's probably the best option at starter for SF this year, which has most of the roster that went to the SB 2 years ago, and has a lot of win now pieces. If he's not good enough to start for SF... why would another team think he's worth trading much of anything for? I guess one option is that you think SF wants to not win this year, but the rest of their moves don't look that way.
 

Bernie Carbohydrate

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SF is in a bit of a jam here, no reason the Pats should rush in and help them out.

And I'm not sure the "Jimmy knows the NE system" stuff has value. If that matters so much, Jacoby Brissett was sitting right there, with no 25-million dollar anchor tied around his neck. He went to Miami for one year, $5 million.

I'm all in on a Camback, with BB taking a flyer on a QB in the Lance / Buechele / Ridder tier.
 

Phil Plantier

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Also, here are the remaining free agent QBs. I'm not sure I'd trust any of them to actually caddie, never mind start a game

39896
 

brendan f

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There is no real reason to doubt that the rookie will at the very least start the season on the bench
Depends on the rookie and depends on the faith the organization has in the starter. We know based on their trade, SF does not have faith in their starter. We don't know anything about the rookie but there is reason to believe it's Mac Jones, and there is certainly reason to think if it is Mac Jones he is ready to lead an offense based on his experience.
It's the real flaw in the whole discussion.... if Jimmy is good enough that a team would happily pay him 26M to be their starter, that means he's probably the best option at starter for SF this year,
This is not a flaw in the discussion, it's a question of which narrative you believe--if you (not you, but any person) believe SF is "happy" to pay JG 26 million than that person would be delusional. That being said, this is SF's narrative. However, we know they are not happy with him, or the money they are paying him, or else they wouldn't have paid such a tremendous amount to move up in the draft. Now maybe SF does stick with JG, but, if they do, that's only because they were not offered what they think he is worth. This is not me spouting, it's what the organization has already stated.
 

Cellar-Door

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Depends on the rookie and depends on the faith the organization has in the starter. We know based on their trade, SF does not have faith in their starter. We don't know anything about the rookie but there is reason to believe it's Mac Jones, and there is certainly reason to think if it is Mac Jones he is ready to lead an offense based on his experience.

This is not a flaw in the discussion, it's a question of which narrative you believe--if you (not you, but any person) believe SF is "happy" to pay JG 26 million than that person would be delusional. That being said, this is SF's narrative. However, we know they are not happy with him, or the money they are paying him, or else they wouldn't have paid such a tremendous amount to move up in the draft. Now maybe SF does stick with JG, but, if they do, that's only because they were not offered what they think he is worth. This is not me spouting, it's what the organization has already stated.
The "happy to pay" was a reference to the team that would trade for him.

As to the rookie.... it probably doesn't. Rookie QBs suck, Mac Jones may be more NFL ready, he'll probably still suck.
 
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