Pats QB Options

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Cellar-Door

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The Patriots offense has been on a four-year decline. They had the best offense in the league in 2017.
2017: 2.61 points per drive (1st)
2018: 2.27 (8th)
2019: 1.97 (17th)
2020: 1.92 (24th)

The offense, all in all, was not really much worse than it was in 2019. The receivers keep getting worse. This year they should be better. We'll see with Cam; he wasn't the whole problem last year, but he was part of the problem.
Yeah, that's the thing about Cam. Nobody is arguing he was good, or even that he'll be good. It's just that the hyperbole has gotten out of control, he wasn't "not an NFL QB" or even "worst starter in the league". He was probably in the bottom quarter of starters in a bad situation, if he can move up into the bottom of the middle 3rd of starters this is a really good team (in part because he's being paid like a backup). Given Brady was probably right around middle of the league maybe slightly below in 2019, that tells me the offense had some effect. If we slot Cam in as say.. 20th best QB? I think this is a good team.
 

brendan f

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To me, the 3rd overall pick is not going to be sitting the whole year. No matter what SF says now, they didn't just trade 2 1's to have the guy waste a year of his rookie deal on the bench. So if you're going to have someone else starting for less than a full season, it doesn't make sense for that guy to be Jimmy G. You could accomplish the same thing much cheaper by dumping Garoppolo and bringing somebody in such as Gardner Minshew. Minshew could start 7 games and hand the reigns over to whoever they pick.

"
Cellar-Door, post:
"Depends how good your team is."


But it also depends on how ready your rookie quarterback is. If the choice is Mac Jones--and, barring subterfuge, that at least appears to be the case--that's someone who could potentially take over their offense on day 1. Here's what Shanahan said to the media:

"Now, if someone wanted (to give) something for (Garoppolo) and it could make our team better in a lot of other ways, you listen to that, but it also depends on how good you feel about that rookie. And we're not there yet right now."

He certainly knows who he's planning to draft, and he certainly has an idea of whether or not that person is ready to take over. He also said to the media that he thinks the qbs in the draft are going to go a lot higher than people think. One way to interpret this is that he doesn't believe Mac Jones would have been sitting there at 12.

At any rate, he's clearly--at the very least-- leaving the door open for a trade. If the choice is indeed Jones (as opposed to Lance), I think it makes an even tougher case to hold onto JG.
 
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JM3

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I started to put together a contrarian (to my own opinion) post about how Mac should be a better prospect than Tua because he put up better #s than Tua with worse receivers (lost Jeudy & Ruggs, only 1/2 season of Waddle), plus he's faster than Tua... but my heart isn't in it. I'm still fading Mac Jones as ever being an above average NFL QB.
 

SMU_Sox

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Jimmy G: 6, 3, 16, 6. That’s the number of games Jimmy G has played in the last 4 years. He is more of a see-it-throw-it QB. The 49ers internally are rumored to blame him for the SB loss and have been trying to move on from him since then. They also dialed down his passing attempts in the playoffs the year they got there. His interception percent with SF has hovered near 3%. He is at his best, on a stacked team, an average to slightly above average QB. On a rookie deal he has some value. Paying an average QB 20-30m a year makes no sense to me. Paying guys who average less than 8 games a season as a starter makes no sense to me. If he could stay healthy he might be worth a 2-3 year contract as a bridge guy until you found someone better at the right price.
I think at this point they go for: Fields or Mills. Maybe Newman day 3. I’d be excited to get any of them but you can just look at my avy to know who my #1 guy is (Fields).
 

Harry Hooper

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Again, can we leave 2017 out of this for JimmyG? Not starting over the GOAT that year carries no demerits. A run of 3, 16, 6 is enough to raise legit questions.
 

BigSoxFan

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Again, can we leave 2017 out of this for JimmyG? Not starting over the GOAT that year carries no demerits. A run of 3, 16, 6 is enough to raise legit questions.
Yeah, I think 2016 is far more relevant to the discussion. He couldn't even last the 4 games that Goodell gifted him.
 

pokey_reese

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For what it's worth, some places like Football Outsiders at least attempt to capture QB value with more advanced metrics than TD vs INT, including scrambles/rushing, and they found Cam's season last year to be absolutely poor, bottom of the league even accounting for the plays he made with his legs. He was better than average as a runner (for a QB), but so much worse than average as a passer (and decision maker) that his overall numbers were still pretty bad. There isn't as much tension between these two opinions as people are making it seem. Yes, a QB can provide some benefit with his legs, but it is sort of like giving a pitcher in the NL too much credit for being a good hitter, simply because 90% of his value should come from throwing the ball.

It doesn't mean that he can't improve this year, with better health, better weapons, a full offseason to practice with the team, etc.. But last year already happened, and he was quite bad as a QB, even if you give him full credit for his rushing TDs.
 

joe dokes

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Cam got COVID week 4.

Pre: 68% completion, 238 yards/game passing, 50 yards/game rushing, 2/2 TD/INT, 4 rushing TD (1.3/game)
Post: 65% completion, 162 yards/game passing, 36 yards/game rushing, 6/8 TD/INT, 8 rushing TD (.67/game)
First 3 games back: 63% completion, 143 yards/game passing, 50 yards/game rushing, 0/5 TD/INT, 2 rushing TD (.5/game)

There's a clear drop-off. I have no doubt it's not all attributable to COVID, but it's there.
Not just the COVID itself. He had to be away from the team for some time as well. So aside from whatever physical stuff, in terms of getting in sync with the offense, he got off a moving train that didn't wait for him, and i dont think he ever caught up.

Yeah, that's the thing about Cam. Nobody is arguing he was good, or even that he'll be good. It's just that the hyperbole has gotten out of control, he wasn't "not an NFL QB" or even "worst starter in the league". He was probably in the bottom quarter of starters in a bad situation, if he can move up into the bottom of the middle 3rd of starters this is a really good team (in part because he's being paid like a backup). Given Brady was probably right around middle of the league maybe slightly below in 2019, that tells me the offense had some effect. If we slot Cam in as say.. 20th best QB? I think this is a good team.
Thats where I am. He's unlikely to be in the top 10, but I am pretty confident he wont be in the bottom 8. I simply cant imagine adding the players that BB did if he did not think that Cam could be better enough to not make the acquisitions pointless.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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I watched a little film yesterday and the thing that strikes me the most about Fields is that he has zero pocket awareness. Like none. I'm not sure how much of that can be learned through better decision making or taught out of him without making his field progressions slower or damaging other parts of his game. Obviously a rock solid offensive line can do wonders for that, which the Pats have at the moment, as well as timing throws, quick slants, etc. I just don't think he's as NFL ready as some are projecting him to be.
 

RedOctober3829

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Looks as though the only way to ensure this happening might be to trade to 4. Falcons need d-back help ... multiple picks plus Gilmore or Jackson?
Pick swap this year and will have to add in a mid rounder this year(96?) and 22/23 1sts would be my guess as a competitive package to go to 4. If you want to offer them Gilmore, maybe you get to keep the mid-round pick.
 

simplyeric

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Yeah, that would be ideal. He could learn from Cam with no pressure to play right away.
Seems like he might be good complement to Cam’s skill set, in terms of being a dangerous weapon for offense on the ground. If either one of them can be even tolerable in the passing game, this team could be really hard to play D against.
But that’s a lot of draft picks.
on the other hand, they just basically reloaded without the draft. So maybe BB does it.
 

BigSoxFan

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Practical question: what about talking with the Packers about a trade for Jordan Love? Wouldn't that be cheaper in terms of draft and other assets than trying to go up to the top 4 or 5 pick in this draft?
They had a chance to take Love in the last draft knowing that they needed a QB and they opted against it by trading down for a 2nd and 3rd that ultimately became Dugger and Uche. My guess is the team’s evaluation of Love isn’t very high.
 

Section15Box113

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Any chance Mac Jones tanked himself enough today to fall to #15?
No.

(At least not from Daniel Jeremiah’s perspective.)

Quotes from nfl.com’s writeup on today’s pro days:

Jones had several overthrows over the course of a 65-toss script in his second throwing session in as many weeks, but included a heavy helping of deep passes and play-action throws. He earned strong reviews from NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah.​

"I thought he was better at this pro day than the first one," said Jeremiah during Tuesday's Path to the Draft Pro Day Special. "... I thought he looked quicker, I thought he looked more crisp getting outside and even some of the stuff he did here within the pocket, I liked. Now, he overshot a couple balls, which was fine. If you're going to miss, miss long. But I thought, if you're going to stack it up and compare workout No. 1 versus workout No. 2, I saw more in this workout that got me excited than I did in the first one."​

From all accounts, Jones accomplished exactly what he wanted to and has put himself in the conversation to go much higher than where the conventional wisdom had him placed prior to his two workouts.

https://www.nfl.com/_amp/alabama-ohio-state-washington-pro-days-mac-jones-excites-justin-fields-puts-on-a
 

ehaz

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We're all gonna lose our minds when we realize Belichick wasn't there for Mac Jones and takes Najee Harris at #15.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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I don't think they'll go skill either. OL or D.
I'm finally getting into the top 30 prospects and it's been a lot of fun.

I'd be ecstatic to get LB Parsons (may fall for personal traits concerns) or Owusu-Koramoah (most likely be there at #15) as someone to replace HT eventually. Getting DE Kwity Paye (love the name) would be terrific too.

On the OL, no chance at the top 2 guys but could Derrisaw be available when BB makes the first pick? If not, Teven Jenkins could be the next Logan Mankins at either guard or tackle:

View: https://youtu.be/O1jlLUWjwDo
 

JM3

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We're all gonna lose our minds when we realize Belichick wasn't there for Mac Jones and takes Najee Harris at #15.
I just assumed he was there for PS2 & was visualizing how he would have somehow intercepted that pass.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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I'm finally getting into the top 30 prospects and it's been a lot of fun.

I'd be ecstatic to get LB Parsons (may fall for personal traits concerns) or Owusu-Koramoah (most likely be there at #15) as someone to replace HT eventually. Getting DE Kwity Paye (love the name) would be terrific too.

On the OL, no chance at the top 2 guys but could Derrisaw be available when BB makes the first pick? If not, Teven Jenkins could be the next Logan Mankins at either guard or tackle:

View: https://youtu.be/O1jlLUWjwDo
Watched this last night. Jenkins is an animal. Brett's breakdown is super informative too.
 

Bernie Carbohydrate

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I think the Mac Jones love is nuts. Blake Freaking Sims lit up the SEC a few years ago, and Jake Coker before him and A.J. McCarron before him. You can spot every Alabama QB about 3500 yards and 30 TDs in his starting season. Tua showed unusual talent that will translate to the NFL. Most Crimson Tide passer are Greg McElroyish.

If you don't watch the SEC regularly you have no idea the gap between the talent Saban can assemble and the next tier in college football. Every Bama OL is better than 90% of the defensive linemen he will face. Every Bama receiver is faster than almost every opposing defensive back. There is no salary cap, there are no holes.

Yes, Jones passes for a million yards against Ohio State. Just because the best (?) Big-10 team ended up looking like a mid-tier SEC team against Bama doesn't mean Jones is an NFL QB. It means the Big 10 is...the Big 10.

I hope some other team falls for the hype and spends a top-five pick on Jones. That pushes a better player down to the Pats.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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If every Alabama QB is susceptible to a bust status, where does that land Fields? Ohio signal callers do not turn out that much better, no?

https://buckeyeswire.usatoday.com/2020/03/14/the-history-of-ohio-state-quarterbacks-in-the-nfl/

Jones seems like a much better pro prospect than Tua to me. The name I keep hearing is Kirk Cousins when comparing the former Tide to an NFL QB. That won't be a bad haul for #15 but certainly not to trade a boatload of future picks for.
 

tims4wins

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If every Alabama QB is susceptible to a bust status, where does that land Fields? Ohio signal callers do not turn out that much better, no?

https://buckeyeswire.usatoday.com/2020/03/14/the-history-of-ohio-state-quarterbacks-in-the-nfl/

Jones seems like a much better pro prospect than Tua to me. The name I keep hearing is Kirk Cousins when comparing the former Tide to an NFL QB. That won't be a bad haul for #15 but certainly not to trade a boatload of future picks for.
But the highest an OSU QB has ever been taken in the modern era is 14, I believe. It's much different having a guy projected top 5. It's not like OSU has produced a bunch of busts - no one ever thought they had a great NFL QB prospect.
 

E5 Yaz

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So, the best beyond-the-first-round QBs options are Mills, Mond, Newman and Trask?

I see a lot of love for Newman in this thread. Of those, would he be the best fit?
 

Cellar-Door

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If every Alabama QB is susceptible to a bust status, where does that land Fields? Ohio signal callers do not turn out that much better, no?

https://buckeyeswire.usatoday.com/2020/03/14/the-history-of-ohio-state-quarterbacks-in-the-nfl/

Jones seems like a much better pro prospect than Tua to me. The name I keep hearing is Kirk Cousins when comparing the former Tide to an NFL QB. That won't be a bad haul for #15 but certainly not to trade a boatload of future picks for.
I definitely don't think people see him as a better prospect than Tua.
Overall though one of the issues with evaluating Jones is... what he's good at is getting the ball where he's supposed to throw it. What he appears bad at is handling pressure, creating opportunity, etc. And we didn't get to see much of that because he had the best O-Line and best skill players. He made almost no tight window throws, everything was open. He faced pressure very rarely. The reason Tua for example was considered a better pro prospect was that he was seen as a guy who could do the type of rush avoidance and creation you kind of need in the NFL.

If you have The Athletic, I think this is a good primer on him and the other top 5 QBs: https://theathletic.com/podcast/211-the-athletic-football-show/
They're both pretty high on him, grading him as something like an early 2nd, but expecting you'd need to take him in the 1st given QB inflation. I'm probably a bit lower, but they get into his strengths and weaknesses. He's got a mediocre arm, he's not NFL mobile (not meaning not a runner, but also just not elusive in the pocket either, as a note Mays mentions on the pod him running a faster than expected 4.68, he tweeted a correction today, looks like some people at the combine messed that up, it was a 4.86 ), he basically is a guy who gets what you scheme.
On the positive side... he's good at getting what is schemed open, he hits his targets when they are open at a really high level, and he makes his progressions pretty quickly. Kirk Cousins is probably his ceiling, and that's a good QB, but it's also not a QB you want to take in the top 5-10.
 

ehaz

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I really don't get the love for Newman at all. He's athletic and looks good in shorts I guess. But he hasn't played for over a year, besides the senior bowl where he looked terrible. If you don't like Fields for processing speed/first read concerns, you're really gonna hate Newman's tape. He stares down receivers, played in a gimmicky offense, and his accuracy is spotty at best.

Newman, to me, is a Nathan Peterman like dart throw you take in the 5th or 6th round. Anything earlier than that and you're just wasting draft capital.

At least with Kellen Mond you have years of SEC tape, good decision making, good mechanics, etc to go with the athleticism.
 
Jones seems like a much better pro prospect than Tua to me. The name I keep hearing is Kirk Cousins when comparing the former Tide to an NFL QB. That won't be a bad haul for #15 but certainly not to trade a boatload of future picks for.
Which is funny, because I just listened to Tim Kawakami - Bay Area writer for The Athletic - on the most recent "Around the NFL" podcast, and he was saying that Shanahan was infatuated with Cousins and nearly made a deal to get him at some point. If you can trade up to #3 to get the new Kirk Cousins, you can't let that opportunity slip!

Actually, Kawakami also floated a theory I'd not heard before: what if nearer the draft the Niners might think of actually trading back out of #3 and down to somewhere near, say, #14 or #15? It was just conjecture - he wasn't citing any sources on this - but if you think about it, they now control the draft board and could perhaps con a more desperate suitor into paying more for the pick than they paid for it themselves. (I think that would probably have to be a deal involving a player from the acquiring team and not just picks, because it'd be too easy to mathematically calculate whether the Niners or the other team in the deal got the worst of it relative to the Niners' first deal, but this could at least be within the realm of possibility.)
 

Cellar-Door

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I really don't get the love for Newman at all. He's athletic and looks good in shorts I guess. But he hasn't played for over a year, besides the senior bowl where he looked terrible. If you don't like Fields for processing speed/first read concerns, you're really gonna hate Newman's tape. He stares down receivers, played in a gimmicky offense, and his accuracy is spotty at best.

Newman, to me, is a Nathan Peterman like dart throw you take in the 5th or 6th round. Anything earlier than that and you're just wasting draft capital.

At least with Kellen Mond you have years of SEC tape, good decision making, good mechanics, etc to go with the athleticism.
I like Newman, but we're talking 4th round or later. To me it's as simple as.... nobody outside the top 5 is a good bet. Give me the guy with electric tools. If you told me one of the QBs outside the top 5 became a top half of the league starter... I'd assume it was Newman. I think all the rest, you're looking at bottom half of the league starters as a ceiling, and I don't know how valuable that really is given the downside risks. To me it's the strategy of.. if you're throwing a dart, throw one that could get you a great return.
 

sodenj5

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Which is funny, because I just listened to Tim Kawakami - Bay Area writer for The Athletic - on the most recent "Around the NFL" podcast, and he was saying that Shanahan was infatuated with Cousins and nearly made a deal to get him at some point. If you can trade up to #3 to get the new Kirk Cousins, you can't let that opportunity slip!

Actually, Kawakami also floated a theory I'd not heard before: what if nearer the draft the Niners might think of actually trading back out of #3 and down to somewhere near, say, #14 or #15? It was just conjecture - he wasn't citing any sources on this - but if you think about it, they now control the draft board and could perhaps con a more desperate suitor into paying more for the pick than they paid for it themselves. (I think that would probably have to be a deal involving a player from the acquiring team and not just picks, because it'd be too easy to mathematically calculate whether the Niners or the other team in the deal got the worst of it relative to the Niners' first deal, but this could at least be within the realm of possibility.)
That would be a wildly bold move from SF considering they gave up 2 firsts and a third to secure the third pick. Is NE calling them and saying they’ll give them two firsts and a second? Is it worth it at that point? I don’t think so. Pretty sure they’re just taking a QB.
 

Cellar-Door

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It has long been assumed, but the massive move in the betting lines on Zach Wilson for #2 pick makes it pretty clear people in the know have info that the Jets are a lock to pick him there. There was speculation last week that both MIA trades were based off the knowledge (SF wanting to get their 3rd QB, Eagles knowing that they couldn't get Wilson who was the only QB they'd trade up for).
 

Seels

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the 2020 receivers were better than the 2019 receivers, and the run game and OL were much better.

Cam apologists were annoying when he wasn't on this team. Yea he wasn't the whole problem but he was easily the largest piece of the pie. Even his numbers are misleading as he piled on in a very pointless week 17 Jets game. He had 5 touchdowns and a 78 rating before what was essentially a preseason game.
 

Captaincoop

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So somebody is trying hard to push Fields down the board (or I guess it could be to justify not taking him, but usually this is trying to push a guy down)
View: https://twitter.com/rodger/status/1377326760967176202


As Sherman points out... seriously? We're questioning the desire of a guy who played a season he didn't need to, and played through injury and played great while hurt?
I have no idea what Justin Fields is actually like, but wanting to play the season and wanting to stay in a game when he was hurt are not incompatible with having bad practice habits. Sherman's defense of him has no substance.

If guys who coached him are using expressions like "last in, first out" about him, that would bother me a ton. But NFL scouts don't need to get that secondhand from the media. If it's true, they're hearing it from OSU's strength coach, and academic advisor, etc.
 

Cellar-Door

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the 2020 receivers were better than the 2019 receivers, and the run game and OL were much better.

Cam apologists were annoying when he wasn't on this team. Yea he wasn't the whole problem but he was easily the largest piece of the pie. Even his numbers are misleading as he piled on in a very pointless week 17 Jets game. He had 5 touchdowns and a 78 rating before what was essentially a preseason game.
It's been discussed a bunch, but neither of those are necessarily true.
The WRs definitely isn't, 16 games of Edelman alone made it better, and I'd argue Dorsett, Sanu, Gordon was better than Damiere Byrd. I mean the 2020 team's #1 WR was the 2019 team's #4 or #5 WR.

The line is possible for part of the year, but also as discussed many times, rushing QBs have a positive effect on rushing game usually a significant one, so the running game was better in part or whole because Cam was there.

Cam was bad. The supporting cast was also very very bad.
 

Cellar-Door

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I have no idea what Justin Fields is actually like, but wanting to play the season and wanting to stay in a game when he was hurt are not incompatible with having bad practice habits. Sherman's defense of him has no substance.

If guys who coached him are using expressions like "last in, first out" about him, that would bother me a ton. But NFL scouts don't need to get that secondhand from the media. If it's true, they're hearing it from OSU's strength coach, and academic advisor, etc.
Meh, I'd maybe give you the "last in first out" one (though it seems obvious nonsense given all the on-record stuff from coaches and teammates) but the "desire to be great" line is 100% relevant to those things. You don't risk yourself if you don't have desire. It's 100% the type of unsourced nonsense that shitty "insiders" spout because somebody asked them to as a favor. If he really had bad practice habits, we'd have heard it before now, and there wouldn't be so many great on the record quotes about him. You can usually spot the guys who actually are problems in College by the lack of, or hedged nature of on the record praise.
 

Captaincoop

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Meh, I'd maybe give you the "last in first out" one (though it seems obvious nonsense given all the on-record stuff from coaches and teammates) but the "desire to be great" line is 100% relevant to those things. You don't risk yourself if you don't have desire. It's 100% the type of unsourced nonsense that shitty "insiders" spout because somebody asked them to as a favor. If he really had bad practice habits, we'd have heard it before now, and there wouldn't be so many great on the record quotes about him. You can usually spot the guys who actually are problems in College by the lack of, or hedged nature of on the record praise.
Again, I have no idea about Justin Fields, and NFL teams don't need to hear about that stuff from a radio show. By now they know what he's about.

But "desire to be great", in elite athletics-speak, means putting the work in behind the scenes in training and in the offseason. Everyone wants to play in games. That's the easy part.
 
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