NBA 20/21 season thread

Pretty slippery move by OKC making Philly wait til today to complete the Horford trade. Allowed them to keep their 27.5M TPE from Steven Adams trade by sneaking the dearly departed Vincent Poirier into the trade.

According to Albert Nahmad, who's an incredible resource to follow on twitter if you're not, OKC needed to add 2.61M in salary to balance the trade out without using the Adams TPE and Poirier makes 2.619M. Cutting it close!

OKC is now has about 38M worth of room to take on bad salary to grab even more assets. They're hard capped at apron, which would give them 44M max they could take on, but I'd assume they'll stay under the tax.

Other league GMs are trying to build winning franchises - Sam Presti is setting up the NBA equivalent of a distressed fund.

nighthob said:

No, I meant that Houston would want Okongwu, but Capela would be a necessary contract, so they can’t really include Okongwu.

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I think you can get there without needing to include Capela.

Snell, Hunter, Okongwu, Reddish, Collins, Huerter gets you there - but that is a lot of bodies that HOU can't take on

the moops said:

I think you can get there without needing to include Capela.

Snell, Hunter, Okongwu, Reddish, Collins, Huerter gets you there - but that is a lot of bodies that HOU can't take on

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yep, 37MM total without Capela. if Houston moves Harden they probably move on from PJ Tucker and Gordon

Their roster actually needs bodies.

TripleOT said:

Trae Young at age 21 compared favorably with Steph Curry at age 25. Trae’s numbers last year 29/9/4 with 9.3FTs a game) came on a bottom tier team, but he’s an offensive dynamo. I don’t see how adding Harden is the way to build around Young. Rim protectors who can screen and rim run, and tall, long wings who can defend is the way to go.

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As we all know Trae isn't going 48mpg/82games a year. Two attacking guards are better than one.
I'm not sure if ATL should be concerned about Trae's stats, GS was at their best when they surrounded Steph with Klay/KD.

Rim protectors who can screen and rim run (Capella or Okungwu would be left) aren't terribly hard to find.

A team of guys like Snell, Hunter, Okongwu, Reddish, Collins, Huerter plus Wall and Wood, minus Harden, PJ, and Gordon is really bad. And they don't own their pick this year. They could be handing over the #1 pick with that roster. I don't see the upside to blow it up this year unless the incoming assets are incredible.

JCizzle said:

A team of guys like Snell, Hunter, Okongwu, Reddish, Collins, Huerter plus Wall and Wood, minus Harden, PJ, and Gordon is really bad. And they don't own their pick this year. They could be handing over the #1 pick with that roster. I don't see the upside to blow it up this year unless the incoming assets are incredible.

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Looks like their 2021 pick is top 4 protected. So if they are really bad (top 4 bad) they would stil only have a 50/50 chance of the pick not conveying. Seems to me they would want draft capital over that platter of ATL players who would be bad.

I would throw a pick HOU way to grab PJ Tucker though

the moops said:

Looks like their 2021 pick is top 4 protected. So if they are really bad (top 4 bad) they would stil only have a 50/50 chance of the pick not conveying. Seems to me they would want draft capital over that platter of ATL players who would be bad.

I would throw a pick HOU way to grab PJ Tucker though

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Ah good deal, I missed the protection on the site I checked.

James Harden has added the Bucks and Heat to his preferred trade destinations along with 76ers and Nets, per
@ShamsCharania

How about MIA as a destination for Harden?

Herro, Precious, Nunn, Iggy, Olynyk + picks.

MIL would have to include Middleton to make it work, and they have no picks to offer. That seems like a not good deal for HOU

the moops said:

James Harden has added the Bucks and Heat to his preferred trade destinations along with 76ers and Nets, per
@ShamsCharania

How about MIA as a destination for Harden?

Herro, Precious, Nunn, Iggy, Olynyk + picks.

MIL would have to include Middleton to make it work, and they have no picks to offer. That seems like a not good deal for HOU

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I imagine it would have to be a 3 way because he wouldn't fit with Houston's timeline, but is anything stopping the Bucks from trading Holiday?

the moops said:

MIL would have to include Middleton to make it work, and they have no picks to offer. That seems like a not good deal for HOU

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Would have to be a three-teamer. Not going to happen (thankfully).

the moops said:

James Harden has added the Bucks and Heat to his preferred trade destinations along with 76ers and Nets, per
@ShamsCharania

How about MIA as a destination for Harden?

Herro, Precious, Nunn, Iggy, Olynyk + picks.

MIL would have to include Middleton to make it work, and they have no picks to offer. That seems like a not good deal for HOU

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MIL has no real way to do it, even in a 3 way trade, they sold too much for Jrue and nobody would give them back enough for him to offset it.

MIA makes sense, BUT.... they aren't going to do it until Giannis signs his deal in MIL, they think they are frontrunners for him, and he's a much better signing.


Also... woof would Harden and Butler be a weird personality fit.

It’s certainly possible that Harden has expanded his potential horizons, but if he really does want to go to Brooklyn or Philly, it helps grease the wheels for a potential trade to make them think there are other suitors, so that they might up their offers to try to get something done quickly. If Harden’s camp was actually on the same page as the Rockets, getting this out there would be mutually beneficial.

Nets just seem like the probable landing spot to me.

I don't think Celtics want to introduce Harden in, but I expect they are looking at the scenario at least.

I would guess Dallas would love to get involved but hard to see the asset fit----they pretty much only have Porzingis and picks to deal and it's a little tough to construct the Porzingis deal that really makes sense for both. Maybe if you also bring Tucker back and assume Dallas goes smallball heavy?

Also, while I think Harden wants to win, the Knicks seem like a candidate to try and grab headlines...they have cap space so could do something like Barrett/Randle/Knox and picks which works. I think that's crazy for Harden himself and for the Knicks (and likely not best return for Houston) but I don't know that either is a fully rational actor.

Miami does have an interesting choice: you could have harden, butler, bam with Dragic, Achiewa, Bradley, Harkless, Robinson providing depth. Hurts to trade Herro, but boy....that's a tough team whio can fill in depth later.

If you're Portland would you do McCollum, Collins, Simons? That is kind of interersting in both directions (not what Hou should do, but what they might think makes sense shorter-term). Portland would become more interesting playoff-wise.

Cellar-Door said:

MIL has no real way to do it, even in a 3 way trade, they sold too much for Jrue and nobody would give them back enough for him to offset it.

MIA makes sense, BUT.... they aren't going to do it until Giannis signs his deal in MIL, they think they are frontrunners for him, and he's a much better signing.


Also... woof would Harden and Butler be a weird personality fit.

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I feel like if Miami can get Harden for Herro+, they absolutely have to do it no matter what Giannis is. We're talking a legitimate top 5-6 player smack dab in his prime. Giannis is obviously a better player but he's far from a sure thing and nothing is likely to happen until next summer. How many more elite years does Butler have left?

DannyDarwinism said:

It’s certainly possible that Harden has expanded his potential horizons, but if he really does want to go to Brooklyn or Philly, it helps grease the wheels for a potential trade to make them think there are other suitors, so that they might up their offers to try to get something done quickly. If Harden’s camp was actually on the same page as the Rockets, getting this out there would be mutually beneficial.

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Brooklyn is the one team that can take Harden and Wall, which is why I think that that might ultimately be what happens. Irving, LaVert, Dinwiddie, and Allen get you there with a filler deal. Houston doesn’t really have much interest in Irving, so it would need to be a three way in order to land the Rockets some draft capital. The resulting team would be bad enough to give them a good shot at holding on to their pick. Or they could always turn around and flip LaVert to OKC to cancel the swap and get some of the Thunders 119 first round picks.

BigSoxFan said:

I feel like if Miami can get Harden for Herro+, they absolutely have to do it no matter what Giannis is. We're talking a legitimate top 5-6 player smack dab in his prime. Giannis is obviously a better player but he's far from a sure thing and nothing is likely to happen until next summer. How many more elite years does Butler have left?

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Maybe, I think the counter is.... How many years does Harden have?
Giannis is going to be a top 3-5 player in this league for another decade. And MIA is one of the few teams that has consistently been able to land talent in FA, players want to go there.

BRK isn't trading Kyrie Irving for James Harden. That is nonsense. KD came to BRK because of wanting to play with Kyrie. They aren't giving that up before they even have had a chance to try it out

Cellar-Door said:

Maybe, I think the counter is.... How many years does Harden have?
Giannis is going to be a top 3-5 player in this league for another decade. And MIA is one of the few teams that has consistently been able to land talent in FA, players want to go there.

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Counter counter, if you can add an MVP level player for Tyler Herro and a far future first (because they still owe two #1s to the Thunder) you absolutely take the deal because you can still land Giannis next summer. Because with all the teams with cap space, it just isn’t going to be hard to move one of their large deals for a draft haul to accommodate Giannis.

Cellar-Door said:

Maybe, I think the counter is.... How many years does Harden have?
Giannis is going to be a top 3-5 player in this league for another decade. And MIA is one of the few teams that has consistently been able to land talent in FA, players want to go there.

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Harden seems like a guy who will age pretty well since he's so crafty. I guess the decision is do you pass up a top 5-6 guy and risk getting nobody for Giannis? Maybe you do. But I'd rather lock in an elite player whenever I get the chance unless I have very good reason to think Giannis might force his way to me. If he might, then I absolutely wait for him. But lots can obviously happen.

the moops said:

BRK isn't trading Kyrie Irving for James Harden. That is nonsense. KD came to BRK because of wanting to play with Kyrie. They aren't giving that up before they even have had a chance to try it out

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They’d trade a top 40 player with a bad knee for an MVP level player in a cocaine heartbeat. Durant is already signed and he’s a former teammate of the one and apparently a friend of Wall, so I’m thinking he’d get over the disappointment.

BigSoxFan said:

Harden seems like a guy who will age pretty well since he's so crafty. I guess the decision is do you pass up a top 5-6 guy and risk getting nobody for Giannis? Maybe you do. But I'd rather lock in an elite player whenever I get the chance unless I have very good reason to think Giannis might force his way to me. If he might, then I absolutely wait for him. But lots can obviously happen.

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I think Harden might age poorly given he spends his days off and offseason housing wings from the stripclub buffet

Can't be traded this year now is an interesting side not of the extension. Doubt he was getting moved anyway, but interesting tidbit nonetheless

Cellar-Door said:

I think Harden might age poorly given he spends his days off and offseason housing wings from the stripclub buffet

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That is a very fair and valid point.

I'm pretty confident Harden will be elite for at least another 4 or 4 years, and his skill set, which is based on shooting, deception, passing, strength and footwork, should actually age fairly well.

Outside of a known reputation for carousing at night; where is the evidence that Harden doesn't take of himself? The guy has been the most durable and consistent superstar in the league over the past five seasons. His consistency has been kind of undervalued; nobody in the league has produced night-in-and-night-out for the past five years more than Harden.

I'd be very, very interested in seeing Harden in Miami. The system in Houston allowed him to put up insane numbers (the guy is coming off a 34-7-7 season) but also I think handicapped him in the playoffs. If he were to go to Miami, I think they could surround him with a better, more disciplined system that would give him plenty of shooters and role-guys to maximize his considerable abilities, while also being in a better position to win in the playoffs.

RedOctober3829 said:

View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1337098777807745028?s=21

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Instantly one of the worst contracts in basketball. Very, very few players are worth over $200 million and George is already 30, can't stay healthy for a full season, has been disappointing in the playoffs lately, doesn't create his own shots at an elite rate and might be a really shitty teammate.

Kliq said:

Instantly one of the worst contracts in basketball. Very, very few players are worth over $200 million and George is already 30, can't stay healthy for a full season, has been disappointing in the playoffs lately, doesn't create his own shots at an elite rate and might be a really shitty teammate.

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Yeah this one could get ugly in a big hurry.

Kliq said:

Instantly one of the worst contracts in basketball. Very, very few players are worth over $200 million and George is already 30, can't stay healthy for a full season, has been disappointing in the playoffs lately, doesn't create his own shots at an elite rate and might be a really shitty teammate.

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It does seem like he gets banged up, but before this past year, the only time he'd missed since his rookie year is when he broke his leg. In the 3 years before his injury and the 4 years after that, he missed just 20 games total (less than 3 games per year). Not that that is guaranteed to hold up given his age and that he missed a bunch of time this year, but there are more delicate all stars than George.

Definitely agreed on the other things. It's amazing how fast things change in just 12 months, when he was viewed as one of the most promising and versatile #2s in the NBA.

Kliq said:

Instantly one of the worst contracts in basketball. Very, very few players are worth over $200 million and George is already 30, can't stay healthy for a full season, has been disappointing in the playoffs lately, doesn't create his own shots at an elite rate and might be a really shitty teammate.

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This is almost assuredly about creating stability in the organization and avoiding the persistent narrative that PG and Kawhi could bail at the end of the year. Keeps George out of trade discussions for the rest of the season as well, which should help.

Euclis20 said:

It does seem like he gets banged up, but before this past year, the only time he'd missed since his rookie year is when he broke his leg. In the 3 years before his injury and the 4 years after that, he missed just 20 games total (less than 3 games per year). Not that that is guaranteed to hold up given his age and that he missed a bunch of time this year, but there are more delicate all stars than George.

Definitely agreed on the other things. It's amazing how fast things change in just 12 months, when he was viewed as one of the most promising and versatile #2s in the NBA.

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Yes, but we are coming off of back-to-back seasons now where he has been reportedly injured during the playoffs. His last season in OKC fizzled out because he was apparently injured during the series, and the same thing happened in the Clippers season.

cheech13 said:

This is almost assuredly about creating stability in the organization and avoiding the persistent narrative that PG and Kawhi could bail at the end of the year. Keeps George out of trade discussions as well, which should help.

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Eh, people sign big extensions all the time and then are on the move a year or two later; hell George signed a big extension with OKC and then was traded a year later to LA. Contracts really don't guarantee stability, especially for someone like George who has already demonstrated he will demand a trade if he wants out. Big contracts just make it more difficult to trade the players when they do want out.

Kliq said:

Yes, but we are coming off of back-to-back seasons now where he has been reportedly injured during the playoffs. His last season in OKC fizzled out because he was apparently injured during the series, and the same thing happened in the Clippers season.

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Was he injured during the playoffs this year? I thought his poor performance was attributed to bubble related anxiety and depression, if not simple poor play.

Euclis20 said:

Was he injured during the playoffs this year? I thought his poor performance was attributed to bubble related anxiety and depression, if not simple poor play.

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There were reports I believe of him playing injured during the playoffs, but that might have just been one of those cover stories an agent puts out there to excuse a bad performance. Remember when LeBron "broke his hand" during the 2018 Finals?

It’s almost certainly a better (i.e. less bad) contract than Klay’s, tbh. But then Klay’s deal came with an implicit bonus for services rendered (i.e. three rings); plus Klay is a Warrior 4 Life who’s arguably the most universally beloved player in the league, whereas PG is generally seen as a whiner and a bit of a tool, especially recently.

On the other hand, a year ago I would probably have taken PG over Jimmy Butler, so I guess mild props to LAC for not succumbing to recency bias?

Kliq said:

There were reports I believe of him playing injured during the playoffs, but that might have just been one of those cover stories an agent puts out there to excuse a bad performance. Remember when LeBron "broke his hand" during the 2018 Finals?

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The dude appears to have chronic shoulder issues. Part of his struggles are likely a result of this - maybe time off has given him a chance to recover but if you watch his post-game interviews he is often icing one or both shoulders.

I agree that this contract seems unwise from a financial standpoint but I think cheech is spot on - this is the Clippers making a statement after a tumultuous off-season.

DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:

The dude appears to have chronic shoulder issues. Part of his struggles are likely a result of this - maybe time off has given him a chance to recover but if you watch his post-game interviews he is often icing one or both shoulders.

I agree that this contract seems unwise from a financial standpoint but I think cheech is spot on - this is the Clippers making a statement after a tumultuous off-season.

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And that statement is...get ready for more disappointment, Clippers fans!

Paging El Uno... it’s his money, after all!

Euclis20 said:

Was he injured during the playoffs this year? I thought his poor performance was attributed to bubble related anxiety and depression, if not simple poor play.

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Also, him fizzling for the Clips is overrated. He was better than Kawhi in the Denver series. It's amazing how a narrative sets in about George being bad in the playoffs and Kawhi being "clutch" when the data definitely doesn't support it. Kawhi isn't particularly good in the playoffs and George isn't particularly bad.

Sam Ray Not said:

Paging El Uno... it’s his money, after all!

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Ehhh doesnt matter. Lebron and his HGH will keep getting guys to quit on their teams and join him to win titles til he's 50.

Happy for PG on a "happy anyone gets fucking paid" level. Basketball wise doesnt matter, it's the lakers title unless lebron gets injured or busted for roids

Cellar-Door said:

Also, him fizzling for the Clips is overrated. He was better than Kawhi in the Denver series. It's amazing how a narrative sets in about George being bad in the playoffs and Kawhi being "clutch" when the data definitely doesn't support it. Kawhi isn't particularly good in the playoffs and George isn't particularly bad.

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Also for all the "bubble is great, intense" yada yada yada stuff. It really was a week's worth of practice and a tournament in front of someone's brother and/or a pregnant wife.

I wouldn't put any stock into that summer league playoffs.

Cellar-Door said:

Also, him fizzling for the Clips is overrated. He was better than Kawhi in the Denver series. It's amazing how a narrative sets in about George being bad in the playoffs and Kawhi being "clutch" when the data definitely doesn't support it. Kawhi isn't particularly good in the playoffs and George isn't particularly bad.

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What is amazing to me is that people can make claims about data supporting something...and then not showing any of that data.

In the aforementioned Denver series, Kawhi averaged 24-8-6, shot 44/35/87 and committed 18 turnovers and 12 fouls.

In the Denver series, Paul George averaged 21-5-3, shot 43/38/87 and committed 24 turnovers and 25 fouls.

So George shot the three ball slightly better from three, but Kawhi was clearly the better player, if we factor in defense as a relative wash (which it wasn't, Kawhi was better). Kawhi scored more points, grabbed more rebounds, and had twice as many assists. He committed less turnovers and far fewer fouls. The advanced numbers in that series tell a similar story, Kawhi has a higher usage rate, a better offensive and defensive rating. Perhaps you have a point that Kawhi did not play particularly amazing in that series, and that George wasn't THAT bad, but I think it's pretty obvious that Kawhi was the superior player in that series.

If we bump the numbers to the entire playoffs to include the Dallas series; Kawhi dwarfs George.

Kawhi: 39 minutes per game, 28-9-5, 48/32/86.
George: 36 minutes per game, 20-6-4, 39/33/90.

So Kawhi was clearly better in the playoffs last year than George, and isn't particularly close. Even if you factor in the below-average Denver series, Kawhi still put up excellent numbers in the playoffs.

Saying that two-time NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard "isn't particularly good in the playoffs" is certainly a take.

Over the last five seasons, Kawhi has played in 66 playoff games. During that time span he has averaged 27-8-4 and shot 50/39/87. So MVP-level counting stats, as well as close to 50/40/90 efficiency, and also a generational-defining defensive force. He is only a year removed from leading a team to a championship, and when it is all said in done, Kawhi will likely go down as one of the very best playoff performers of the 21st century, and he will deserve that accolade.

Paul George has not been bad in the playoffs; over the last 5 seasons he has played in 35 playoff games, and has averaged 24-7-4 and shot 41/36/89. So he is fairly close on counting stats, although Kawhi is clearly more efficient; and Kawhi would have to get the edge on defense even though George has been very solid. George is a very good player; but 30 year old Paul George isn't worth a $225 million contract.

the moops said:

BRK isn't trading Kyrie Irving for James Harden. That is nonsense. KD came to BRK because of wanting to play with Kyrie. They aren't giving that up before they even have had a chance to try it out

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Is there sarcasm here we're missing?

It’s funny that, going into last season, we wanted Tatum to become Paul George. One Shortened year later, George is getting vastly overpaid and we’d gladly give his contract to Tatum when his time is due...

Kliq said:

What is amazing to me is that people can make claims about data supporting something...and then not showing any of that data.

In the aforementioned Denver series, Kawhi averaged 24-8-6, shot 44/35/87 and committed 18 turnovers and 12 fouls.

In the Denver series, Paul George averaged 21-5-3, shot 43/38/87 and committed 24 turnovers and 25 fouls.

So George shot the three ball slightly better from three, but Kawhi was clearly the better player, if we factor in defense as a relative wash (which it wasn't, Kawhi was better). Kawhi scored more points, grabbed more rebounds, and had twice as many assists. He committed less turnovers and far fewer fouls. The advanced numbers in that series tell a similar story, Kawhi has a higher usage rate, a better offensive and defensive rating. Perhaps you have a point that Kawhi did not play particularly amazing in that series, and that George wasn't THAT bad, but I think it's pretty obvious that Kawhi was the superior player in that series.

If we bump the numbers to the entire playoffs to include the Dallas series; Kawhi dwarfs George.

Kawhi: 39 minutes per game, 28-9-5, 48/32/86.
George: 36 minutes per game, 20-6-4, 39/33/90.

So Kawhi was clearly better in the playoffs last year than George, and isn't particularly close. Even if you factor in the below-average Denver series, Kawhi still put up excellent numbers in the playoffs.

Saying that two-time NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard "isn't particularly good in the playoffs" is certainly a take.

Over the last five seasons, Kawhi has played in 66 playoff games. During that time span he has averaged 27-8-4 and shot 50/39/87. So MVP-level counting stats, as well as close to 50/40/90 efficiency, and also a generational-defining defensive force. He is only a year removed from leading a team to a championship, and when it is all said in done, Kawhi will likely go down as one of the very best playoff performers of the 21st century, and he will deserve that accolade.

Paul George has not been bad in the playoffs; over the last 5 seasons he has played in 35 playoff games, and has averaged 24-7-4 and shot 41/36/89. So he is fairly close on counting stats, although Kawhi is clearly more efficient; and Kawhi would have to get the edge on defense even though George has been very solid. George is a very good player; but 30 year old Paul George isn't worth a $225 million contract.

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Kawhi's defense honestly wasn't better and I think it's been overrated for several years, he just doesn't have the impact he did pre-injury. I was going off of box scores, but based on BPM, on/offs etc, I'd argue George was the better player for the series, and the better player for either 4 of the 7 games (2,3,5 and 6):
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202009130DEN.html

Edit- Kawhi is good in the playoffs, he's just not particularly better than the regular season, my point was that Paul George doesn't get worse in the playoffs, he's basically the same player outside of the one season where he was seriously injured, and Kawhi hasn't been some massive playoff force, he's been the same player as the regular season. He's a 4 bounce 3pter in a game that he wasn't good in from not making the finals in TOR, same with a FVV supernova. He's fine in the playoffs but the narrative is... "oh Kawhi is AMAZINGLY CLUTCH and George is so bad in the playoffs" when neither is backed up by anything. The Clippers lost because both guys had bad games in the Denver series, but it was spun as "PG didn't show up" when really he was pretty good in the DEN series and Kawhi was very up and down which your best player can't be.

BRK can get Harden done alone with Lavert, Prince, and Dinwiddie.

They can also send out a whole pile of picks (again) and take another roll of the dice on a bunch of elite players in their thirties.

In my opinion, this is more attractive to Houston than Irving anyways. There's a whole lot more upside for them, especially given that both Irving and Durant are recovering from significant injuries.

Devizier said:

BRK can get Harden done alone with Lavert, Prince, and Dinwiddie.

They can also send out a whole pile of picks (again) and take another roll of the dice on a bunch of elite players in their thirties.

In my opinion, this is more attractive to Houston than Irving anyways. There's a whole lot more upside for them, especially given that both Irving and Durant are recovering from significant injuries.

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Yeah, I think Houston would and should take that deal. I wonder whether the Nets are worried about the potential optics of immediately sending the franchise into a 5-year purgatory again.

lovegtm said:

Yeah, I think Houston would and should take that deal. I wonder whether the Nets are worried about the potential optics of immediately sending the franchise into a 5-year purgatory again.

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They might be, but they shouldn't. They sold their soul the first time for Pierce (35) and Garnett (36), and as bad as it is to see Brown/Tatum and imagine would could have been, they are doing alright for themselves right now. Harden is five years younger than those guys, an entirely different story.

Damn...that would be an amazing trade for Miami. I was just as amazed by Herro as anybody else but I think this would be the perfect time for Miami to sell high. I think Herro may have his moments but I am skeptical he will ever be a #1 or #2 option on a winning team.