Bobby Dalbec - What do we have

SouthernBoSox

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Jul 23, 2005
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It’s interesting because the swing is so short and compact you wouldn’t expect A) enormous strike outs and B) enormous power

I’m curious if his strikeouts are more in the zone or out of the zone. He just doesn’t have the profile of someone who should strikeout this much.
 

shaggydog2000

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Apr 5, 2007
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His power is definitely legit, when he gets ahold of balls they go. But his HR/FB of 44.4% is over twice what it was in the upper minors and at a level that is almost 50% higher than any player in MLB last year. That's just not sustainable no matter who you are. And his BABIP of .406 is considerably above what it was in the up minors as well. Now his k% may not stay as high as it is right now, but that could actually be caused by the step up in competition level. I feel like he's still pretty unproven and impossible to project off of what he's done this year. But a short hot start is a better sign than nothing at all or hitting like crap for a few weeks.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Jul 15, 2005
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He needs to make significant improvement in Ks and swinging K%. If he does, and you squint a bit, you could see some version of Adam Dunn emerge. But at age 25 already, I’d put that outcome in the unlikely category.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Apr 22, 2016
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It’s interesting because the swing is so short and compact you wouldn’t expect A) enormous strike outs and B) enormous power

I’m curious if his strikeouts are more in the zone or out of the zone. He just doesn’t have the profile of someone who should strikeout this much.
His out-of-zone swing rate is about 35%, which isn't terribly out of line with the MLB average of 30%. The problem is that he makes contact on about 35% of those out-of-zone swings, whereas the average major leaguer makes contact on about 60% of those swings. Which probably means he just has a real problem identifying which pitches are going to be close and is thus swinging at stuff way out of the zone that's impossible to even foul off.

One would think that some more experience with seeing pitches at the major league level might help that somewhat, but then again he's always been a free swinger so maybe this is just who he is.
 

shaggydog2000

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Chavis in his first 22 Games: 289/407/592 7 HR 2 2B 26.4% k% 15.4% BB% .303 ISO .333 BABIP in 91PA
Dalbec in his first 23 Games: 263/359/600 8 HR 3 2B 42.4% k% 10.9% BB% .338 ISO .394 BABIP in 92 PA

A lot alike, except I have to admit Chavis' numbers looked more sustainable at the time. Or course he didn't, and Dalbec might. Or might be different but still valuable. I'm just saying Dalbec should be part of a plan, not the plan at first.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Jul 23, 2005
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The main difference in the two for me is anecdotal but important. Chavis run when he first came up was absolutely full of bad ball home runs. It seemed like every time someone threw him a break all it would hang and he would murder it. Once they figure out to just gas him he was never the same.

With Dalbec he’s hit some really good pitches that have just flown out of the ballpark, especially the other way. When he makes contact special things happen. I have no idea what to make of him. It just doesn’t make sense that with his swing he can be so bad at making contact.