2020 Pats: QB Edition

Pandemonium67

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If we were doing a poll I'd certainly vote for Dalton being better than Stidham this year, meaning giving the Pats a better chance of winning more games.

That said, and with an eye toward the future, I'd still prefer to go with Stidham (assuming BB thinks he has a future).
 

djbayko

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Dalton never played for Bratkowski. Gruden and Jackson got HC jobs. Lazor just got another OC job.

You might want to have the slightest idea of what you're talking about.
And again, Lewis certainly had his warts but you sound like Stephen A. Smith. There are plenty of places to read and numbers to look at without parroting lazy national narratives.
They were so terrible...that the first two got HC jobs (and Gruden just got another OC job). Jackson would probably still be an OC if he wasn't an asshole. Lazor got another OC job.

What the fuck are you talking about?
For a 48-game stretch from 2012-15, the Bengals went 36-11-1. Somehow they did it with incompetent coaches.

If you want to have a serious conversation with someone who actually follows the team, I'd be more than happy to. If you'd rather go all Stephen A., I'll continue to be obnoxious.
Jesus. Are you having a bad day or something? If you haven't noticed, most people on this forum are a lot more civil. Any one of these posts - okay, a mistake that probably could have been worded better. But you're coming off like a real a-hole here.
 

tims4wins

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Dalton may be a better QB than Stidham - hell, he may be much better - but I don't think his supporters are giving enough weight to the lack of offseason program. Asking him to come in in August and run the show having never met any of his teammates or run any of the Pats plays is a tall order. I think Stidham is in a far better position to perform better in 2020 given the circumstances, even if Dalton is the more talented player.
 

TSC

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Dalton may be a better QB than Stidham - hell, he may be much better - but I don't think his supporters are giving enough weight to the lack of offseason program. Asking him to come in in August and run the show having never met any of his teammates or run any of the Pats plays is a tall order. I think Stidham is in a far better position to perform better in 2020 given the circumstances, even if Dalton is the more talented player.
Is anyone here advocating for him to be the starter though? It seems the general belief is that he would be here as the Hoyer competition/break glass in case Stidham fails spectacularly or gets hurt.
 

heavyde050

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Is anyone here advocating for him to be the starter though? It seems the general belief is that he would be here as the Hoyer competition/break glass in case Stidham fails spectacularly or gets hurt.
If Stidham fails spectacularly, shouldn't the Pats just go with it and get the high draft pick?
 

tims4wins

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Is anyone here advocating for him to be the starter though? It seems the general belief is that he would be here as the Hoyer competition/break glass in case Stidham fails spectacularly or gets hurt.
That's fair, although I'd argue I'd still rather have Hoyer in the role since he knows the playbook and his teammates. Plus the backup QB gets far fewer reps, so it would be harder for Dalton to learn.
 

Cellar-Door

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If Stidham fails spectacularly, shouldn't the Pats just go with it and get the high draft pick?
Depends what the goal is. Dalton can probably take this team to the playoffs, they almost certainly won't win the Super Bowl, but then again they couldn't win the Super Bowl with Brady last year
 

nighthob

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Dalton may be a better QB than Stidham - hell, he may be much better - but I don't think his supporters are giving enough weight to the lack of offseason program. Asking him to come in in August and run the show having never met any of his teammates or run any of the Pats plays is a tall order. I think Stidham is in a far better position to perform better in 2020 given the circumstances, even if Dalton is the more talented player.
Yeah, I said this earlier, the QB development resources are going to be scarce this year, and investing them in a guy who, at his peak, was above averagish and whose peak is five years past, is just a waste of those resources. And for what? To make an abortive run at the last wildcard spot and leave themselves in the position of drafting the 2021 version of Andy Dalton and hoping for the best?
 

E5 Yaz

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Stidham wasn't particularly good in college
NFL types have said that this was as much a fault of being jammed into a new system than it was talent level.

He could lay an egg, no doubt. But if Dalton is the difference between a WC spot and early exit vs 7-9 to 9-7 and missing the playoffs with Stidham ... I'd rather have Stidham
 

E5 Yaz

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Jesus. Are you having a bad day or something? If you haven't noticed, most people on this forum are a lot more civil. Any one of these posts - okay, a mistake that probably could have been worded better. But you're coming off like a real a-hole here.
This is what the Repot button is for ... or private messaging. No need to exacerbate things with this kind of post
 

FlexFlexerson

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There's something self-fulfilling about whatever BB chooses here, imho: if he goes with Dalton I take it on faith that he didn't think Stidham has the stuff make putting him out this season a worthwhile developmental endeavor, and this I am pleased with the signing - if Dalton doesn't get signed and the Pats go with Stidham, I assume BB has ascertained that doing so is best for Stidham's development and/or the long term organizational future... and thus I am pleased.

The only way I wouldn't prefer whatever the final decision is, is if the choice was somehow taken out of BB's hands, a scenario which seems impossible.
 

Super Nomario

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Jesus. Are you having a bad day or something? If you haven't noticed, most people on this forum are a lot more civil. Any one of these posts - okay, a mistake that probably could have been worded better. But you're coming off like a real a-hole here.
I'm not a Bengals fan, but there were a lot of dumb, lazy narratives in the Bengals / Dalton criticism and I understand a Bengals fan taking umbrage at them. The Patriots are the most successful franchise in the NFL. That doesn't mean 31 other teams all are idiots who suck.
 

djbayko

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I'm not a Bengals fan, but there were a lot of dumb, lazy narratives in the Bengals / Dalton criticism and I understand a Bengals fan taking umbrage at them. The Patriots are the most successful franchise in the NFL. That doesn't mean 31 other teams all are idiots who suck.
Thats fine. There are better ways to address people, especially posters who have consistently demonstrated that they share legitimate opinions and are not trolling for reactions. Most everyone here manages to do so most of the time, and people post a lot of dumb shit.

I’ve had some terrible posting moments myself, so hopefully we can move on.
 
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Cellar-Door

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NFL types have said that this was as much a fault of being jammed into a new system than it was talent level.

He could lay an egg, no doubt. But if Dalton is the difference between a WC spot and early exit vs 7-9 to 9-7 and missing the playoffs with Stidham ... I'd rather have Stidham
Maybe, but there isn't much history of a QB in recent times as inaccurate a passer in college (adjusted) being successful in the NFL. I hope he suceeds, but the floor on him isn't 7-9, it's benched for Brian Hoyer after utter collapse and a deeply unhappy group of vets and defensive players
 

Soxy

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Maybe, but there isn't much history of a QB in recent times as inaccurate a passer in college (adjusted) being successful in the NFL. I hope he suceeds, but the floor on him isn't 7-9, it's benched for Brian Hoyer after utter collapse and a deeply unhappy group of vets and defensive players
So you're saying Stidham can become the Jaylen Brown of the NFL? I'm down for that.

In all seriousness, I don't know how much we should pay attention to Stidham's numbers at Auburn. I'm not sure what he was doing there is applicable to what the Patriots are asking him to do, or what any NFL team would ask him to do, really. Isn't Gus Malzahn's offense basically stone age football in modern spread formation clothes?
 

Captaincoop

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So you're saying Stidham can become the Jaylen Brown of the NFL? I'm down for that.

In all seriousness, I don't know how much we should pay attention to Stidham's numbers at Auburn. I'm not sure what he was doing there is applicable to what the Patriots are asking him to do, or what any NFL team would ask him to do, really. Isn't Gus Malzahn's offense basically stone age football in modern spread formation clothes?
Regardless of what he did in college, he's a second year guy who was drafted in the fourth round and has essentially not played at all in his NFL career. His floor could be Nathan Peterman for all we know. He could be so bad you can't keep putting him on the field after a couple of weeks.

I believe in the Pats' coaching staff enough to believe he's going to be a good starter. But if you can get a competent vet to compete with him, I don't see how that's a negative.

On the other hand, maybe Bill's backup plan really is to punt on an entire year. I still doubt it, but it's not crazy given what the roster looks like.

Personally I think he values the winning culture he's built and would rather win more than people think this year, even if it means drafting at, say 20, instead of top 10.
 

Soxy

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Regardless of what he did in college, he's a second year guy who was drafted in the fourth round and has essentially not played at all in his NFL career. His floor could be Nathan Peterman for all we know. He could be so bad you can't keep putting him on the field after a couple of weeks.

I believe in the Pats' coaching staff enough to believe he's going to be a good starter. But if you can get a competent vet to compete with him, I don't see how that's a negative.

On the other hand, maybe Bill's backup plan really is to punt on an entire year. I still doubt it, but it's not crazy given what the roster looks like.

Personally I think he values the winning culture he's built and would rather win more than people think this year, even if it means drafting at, say 20, instead of top 10.
The argument against your first paragraph is that Stidham was the lone backup to Tom Brady last season, as a rookie. One could argue that it was a calculated risk by Belichick, and that may be part of it, but any backup is always one play away from becoming the next in line. Brady has been astoundingly durable throughout his long career, outside of one freak play, but he also was 42 years old. If they didn't have confidence in Stidham, I don't think he would ever have been put into that position. I don't mean to sound like an "In Belichick We Trust" sycophant, but I'd say that's compelling evidence for Stidham not being a complete disaster. Doesn't mean he's any good, of course. But I think the floor is probably higher than it would be for a typical 4th round pick, second year QB, who has never started an NFL game in his life. Which may not be saying much. But it's something.
 

tims4wins

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The argument against your first paragraph is that Stidham was the lone backup to Tom Brady last season, as a rookie. One could argue that it was a calculated risk by Belichick, and that may be part of it, but any backup is always one play away from becoming the next in line. Brady has been astoundingly durable throughout his long career, outside of one freak play, but he also was 42 years old. If they didn't have confidence in Stidham, I don't think he would ever have been put into that position. I don't mean to sound like an "In Belichick We Trust" sycophant, but I'd say that's compelling evidence for Stidham not being a complete disaster. Doesn't mean he's any good, of course. But I think the floor is probably higher than it would be for a typical 4th round pick, second year QB, who has never started an NFL game in his life. Which may not be saying much. But it's something.
Agree with all this. Let’s not forget that they cut Hoyer last year after the preseason.
 

DJnVa

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Maybe, but there isn't much history of a QB in recent times as inaccurate a passer in college (adjusted) being successful in the NFL.
Can you expand on this? His junior season he led the SEC in completion percentage and was 9th in the NCAA when he had a better roster around him.

In the preseason he led the NFL (yes, I know, preseason) in accuracy percentage--90.6%--with a clean pocket. I get that doesn't always happen, but those numbers don't show him to be inaccurate.

This article calls his accuracy a "defining trait" of him as a QB

https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2020/04/02/jarrett-stidham-film-stats-patriots-quarterback
 

Cellar-Door

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Can you expand on this? His junior season he led the SEC in completion percentage and was 9th in the NCAA when he had a better roster around him.

In the preseason he led the NFL (yes, I know, preseason) in accuracy percentage--90.6%--with a clean pocket. I get that doesn't always happen, but those numbers don't show him to be inaccurate.

This article calls his accuracy a "defining trait" of him as a QB

https://www.boston.com/sports/new-england-patriots/2020/04/02/jarrett-stidham-film-stats-patriots-quarterback
I'm using Klassen's pull from last year's draft. I believe he uses a players last 1.5 seasons:
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sDWpPsuNuVZQony7lpgjndJk-xSVyWlAG2OXCafAM20/edit#gid=1540119799


The basics is it's based on how on-target your throws are, with adjustments for depth of target, adjustments by pass catchers etc.

Now if I were playing devil's advocate, the case for Stidham being an exception would be.... he was better earlier in his career, he made a lot of throws outside the pocket, and he faced a lot of pressure. Also he's being punished some by the formula for throwing an insane amount of passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.

The case against is that he was very bad at basically everything between 6 and 15 yards and anything over 20.

Stidham could be good, but his profile isn't a particularly encouraging one, and pure completion percentage is generally useless, and especially so in an offense where so many passes are behind the LOS. As to his maybe being a high pick earlier... tell that to Matt Leinart, Jake Fromm and assorted others, I can't think of any guys with the reverse, who were highly touted, then regressed badly in college and came out to be successful pro starters. Usually that pattern is guys who had a good year in a system that hid their flaws behind their surrounding talent, and then they were exposed when asked to do more than the minimum (also known as the stuff a pro QB needs to do)


Edit- interesting thing is there are actually two test cases this year on whether it matters, Minshew was also pretty inaccurate in college comparatively, so if he's a good starter it's a good sign for Stidham.
 
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I never paid much attention to Stidham in college, but I remember watching his bowl game against Purdue and being shocked at how unstoppable they were. I just rewatched his highlights and he was hitting all of his receivers in stride both short and long. He looked really good, even if it was just Purdue. In Bill we trust.
 

Greekca

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My favorite footage of Stidham from college is vs. Alabama (#1, undefeated). Reminds me of younger Tom Brady in terms of showing up big in a big game and relying on quick throws and the occasional big time to throw to move an inferior offense down the field. Very much how the early 2000s Patriots won games when they were underdogs. Also the way the 2020 Patriots are going to have to win. If you want to see him make down the field throws watch his Baylor tape.

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Aw7ieZlWdGg&t
 

Super Nomario

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The argument against your first paragraph is that Stidham was the lone backup to Tom Brady last season, as a rookie. One could argue that it was a calculated risk by Belichick, and that may be part of it, but any backup is always one play away from becoming the next in line. Brady has been astoundingly durable throughout his long career, outside of one freak play, but he also was 42 years old. If they didn't have confidence in Stidham, I don't think he would ever have been put into that position. I don't mean to sound like an "In Belichick We Trust" sycophant, but I'd say that's compelling evidence for Stidham not being a complete disaster. Doesn't mean he's any good, of course. But I think the floor is probably higher than it would be for a typical 4th round pick, second year QB, who has never started an NFL game in his life. Which may not be saying much. But it's something.
Brian Hoyer was also the only backup as a rookie. Ryan Mallett wasn't the only backup as a rookie, but he was the only backup for two years.

Stidham's ahead of a good chunk of fourth rounders who never started a game. I think it's hard to say much more than that.

Wasn’t Stidham widely considered a first round pick if he had entered the draft after his junior year?
You can find early mocks for 2019 that put Stidham in the first round. Some of them put Shea Patterson and Clayton Thorson in there, too.

EDIT: To elaborate: I'm sure the Patriots liked Stidham coming out, too, but they didn't even like him enough to use their FIRST fourth round pick on him. So I'm having a hard time seeing this "he would have been ahead of Herbert and Love in this draft" narrative as holding any water.
 

DJnVa

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EDIT: To elaborate: I'm sure the Patriots liked Stidham coming out, too, but they didn't even like him enough to use their FIRST fourth round pick on him. So I'm having a hard time seeing this "he would have been ahead of Herbert and Love in this draft" narrative as holding any water.
Why?

https://nesn.com/2020/04/how-people-around-nfl-believe-jarrett-stidham-compares-to-jordan-love/
If the Patriots’ calculus, in fact, was that Stidham is superior to Love, then many around the NFL apparently agree with them. “I’ve talked to people to think Stidham is better than Love and it’s not close,” The Athletic’s Jeff Howe tweeted Saturday. “Based off last summer and his entire portfolio at Auburn, Stidham would be, in my opinion, no worse than the third-ranked QB in this class.”

Howe added this note in a column published Saturday: “The first second-guess was Jordan Love, whom the Patriots passed over at No. 23 before trading down. I’ve spoken to people who believe Stidham is better than Love and it’s not even close. One QB evaluator didn’t like Love at all, pointing to the erratic, out-of-control throws and turnovers. Meanwhile, Stidham’s accuracy to all three levels is his best asset.”
 

Super Nomario

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Because I don't remember anyone describing the 2019 draft as some amazing quarterback class, and he was the seventh quarterback selected. The Patriots took him at 133, at the bottom of the fourth round, and passed on him six times before taking him.

I don't doubt there are teams that prefer Stidham to Love. That includes the Patriots, who could have stayed at 23 and taken Love, but didn't. That's very different than saying that Stidham is a first-round-caliber player. The Packers at least thought Love was a first-round pick. Maybe they were the only one. But no NFL team thought Stidham was even worth a third-round pick in 2019.

The "third-ranked QB" nonsense is Howe's opinion. Herbert, the actual third-ranked QB in this class, went #6 overall. Do we really think 90 preseason passes is enough to elevate Stidham from pick #133 to pick #6?
 

Cellar-Door

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Because I don't remember anyone describing the 2019 draft as some amazing quarterback class, and he was the seventh quarterback selected. The Patriots took him at 133, at the bottom of the fourth round, and passed on him six times before taking him.

I don't doubt there are teams that prefer Stidham to Love. That includes the Patriots, who could have stayed at 23 and taken Love, but didn't. That's very different than saying that Stidham is a first-round-caliber player. The Packers at least thought Love was a first-round pick. Maybe they were the only one. But no NFL team thought Stidham was even worth a third-round pick in 2019.

The "third-ranked QB" nonsense is Howe's opinion. Herbert, the actual third-ranked QB in this class, went #6 overall. Do we really think 90 preseason passes is enough to elevate Stidham from pick #133 to pick #6?
Yeah, the Love vs Stidham thing is more an indication of something we already knew.... that a lot of people really don't think Love is a 1st round prospect. I like Stidham better than Love too, but it doesn't mean I would have taken Stidham at 23 in this draft.

Stidham is what he is, a 4th round pick who the team likes a lot based on what they saw in practice, and who they are willing to take a chance on this year because they don't like their other options. He could be good, he could be terrible, and nobody, not even the coaching staff is really sure where he falls until he starts playing real games against NFL starters running real schemes.

If he's terrible, the Patriots will draft and/or sign a new QB next year.
 

NomarsFool

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I'm all for Stidham being plan A for this upcoming season, but I'm not down on Hoyer being plan B in case of significant stinkitude from Stidham or injury. If Dalton would sign for cheap (like $1 million) I'm a bit surprised the Pats don't have interest. Heck, the Pats had 3 QBs on the roster last season when they had more QB depth/certainty than they do this season. I still remember when Brady went down for an injury in the first game of the season. That stuff happens - a lot. It didn't happen that much for us due to the mastery of the TB12 method :) But, I view Hoyer as little more than a 'come in for a few downs if Stidham gets banged up' kind of back-up. I don't want to see him starting games and I'd much rather have Dalton if it came to us needing a starter.
 

E5 Yaz

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National sports talk radio is the worst. Weekend guys on Fox just suggested the Patriots might be interested in

Mitch Trubisky
 

Cellar-Door

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National sports talk radio is the worst. Weekend guys on Fox just suggested the Patriots might be interested in

Mitch Trubisky
I doubt it, but at the same time...... the Patriots have an untested 4th rounder, a guy who is barely a career backup and 2 UDFAs on the roster, they're going to be linked to every former starter in the league because they have an obvious need for more quality in the QB room, so any cheap option to take a flyer on a guy with either tools or skills is a reasonable possibility.

Even if Stidham is good for a 1st time starter, the QB depth is bad, if Stidham isn't good for a 1st time starter it's the worst QB situation in the league by a good amount.

I mean if there weren't the unique situation of a shortened pre-season, I think even people on this board would have more concern about Hoyer as the primary backup, he's not somebody you want to play QB for you in an NFL game. And that's a group that has a ton of faith in Bellichick's evaluation of Stidham.
 

NomarsFool

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Is $3 million the going rate for a backup QB? Seems awfully expensive, but honestly not a position I pay a lot of attention to.
 

Cellar-Door

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Is $3 million the going rate for a backup QB? Seems awfully expensive, but honestly not a position I pay a lot of attention to.
Would have been tied for 8th going into last year, so it's pretty fair price since Dalton is probably one of the best backups in the league now.
 

BusRaker

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Seems crazy that there's such a drop off between #32 and #33 in QB salary. I feel like you could take a backup QB, put $25 million more in the O-Line, and have much better offensive. Guess it shows what I know
 

Cellar-Door

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Seems crazy that there's such a drop off between #32 and #33 in QB salary. I feel like you could take a backup QB, put $25 million more in the O-Line, and have much better offensive. Guess it shows what I know
The dropoff isn't at 32/33 A lot of starters are on rookie deals, so they have low salaries, also Dalton for example if he became the starter in DAL would hit his incentives and get to $7M. Players won't commit long term to low money if they have a shot at being a starter (see Teddy Bridgewater, did 1 year as a highly paid backup, now he's starting at $21M a year.
Basically "backup QB" is it's own position, and the salaries are lower, but the deals are shorter. If you are the starter, the salary goes way up.
 

BaseballJones

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Omg haha.

Mitch Trubisky is (relative to other NFL QB) simply awful. They’re just throwing crap against the wall hoping something sticks.
 

Harry Hooper

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I expect there to be a vet QB brought in as the 3rd QB on the roster, but maybe not until after Week 1.
 

Shaky Walton

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I expect there to be a vet QB brought in as the 3rd QB on the roster, but maybe not until after Week 1.
Why not one of the two UDFAs? Both had good college careers and would be cheaper than a vet. Especially if Stidham gets the nod as starter, having one veteran back-up seems sufficient to me.
 

DJnVa

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Why not one of the two UDFAs? Both had good college careers and would be cheaper than a vet. Especially if Stidham gets the nod as starter, having one veteran back-up seems sufficient to me.
Yeah, I think they might favor J'Mar Smith--he's a mobile QB that can likely do a lot to help the team in practice to help game plan against guys like Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, etc.
 

Harry Hooper

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Why not one of the two UDFAs? Both had good college careers and would be cheaper than a vet. Especially if Stidham gets the nod as starter, having one veteran back-up seems sufficient to me.
Sure, holding off on adding a vet gives the young'uns maximum reps in camp. If one of them wows, then that's fine. If not, the vet comes in on a non-vested salary after week 1.
 

Cellar-Door

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Why not one of the two UDFAs? Both had good college careers and would be cheaper than a vet. Especially if Stidham gets the nod as starter, having one veteran back-up seems sufficient to me.
Depends what approach you are taking. If it's the "our backup should be capable of starting and not being terrible if the starter gets hurt" approach we need someone new, Hoyer has looked pretty washed in his limited action over the last few years, and there is a reason Smith and Lewerke went undrafted, both are a long ways from NFL ready.

If the approach is "if the starter gets hurt we're better off losing as much as possible" then yeah no reason to add a vet.

Also, if one of the UDFA looks like a prospect you want to keep on the active roster you can always cut Hoyer to upgrade the vet backup spot, he has no guaranteed money