2019-2020 Celtics Regular Season Thread

Jimbodandy

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Something about this year's Celtics that I find puzzling, but in a good way: they seem to be right in a lot of games where they don't play particularly well. I watched part of last night's game, and Milwaukee for a while couldn't miss a 3-point shot (true, they weren't being defended well much of the time). So today I checked the box score: the Bucks shot 52% from three. The Celts shot a relatively miserable 31%. Yet they only lost by 5. It seems last year with those percentages they would have lost by closer to 20.
I agree with this. Except for some shoddy defense from Hayward all game (which really bothers me lately) and a brief, but miserable stretch with Kanter-Wanamaker-Green, the team overall played decent defense. When at least most of the team is staying connected, opponents have to earn their baskets. On the flipside, the Cs kept running and kept looking for each other in the halfcourt. Plus Kemba went bonkers.

I too was encouraged by the comeback and thoroughly enjoyed the second half. It's something to build on.
 

lovegtm

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Something about this year's Celtics that I find puzzling, but in a good way: they seem to be right in a lot of games where they don't play particularly well. I watched part of last night's game, and Milwaukee for a while couldn't miss a 3-point shot (true, they weren't being defended well much of the time). So today I checked the box score: the Bucks shot 52% from three. The Celts shot a relatively miserable 31%. Yet they only lost by 5. It seems last year with those percentages they would have lost by closer to 20.
They're a lot mentally tougher this year and do a much better job playing through variance.

That said, they've been creating the opportunity for that variance to happen a lot lately by playing lazy, disconnected (fatigued?) perimeter defense.
 

benhogan

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Something about this year's Celtics that I find puzzling, but in a good way: they seem to be right in a lot of games where they don't play particularly well. I watched part of last night's game, and Milwaukee for a while couldn't miss a 3-point shot (true, they weren't being defended well much of the time). So today I checked the box score: the Bucks shot 52% from three. The Celts shot a relatively miserable 31%. Yet they only lost by 5. It seems last year with those percentages they would have lost by closer to 20.
Agreed. I'm not going to bitch about the bench, that's a Kyriesque move. I'll just add that when the team decides to pick up the on-ball pressure defense between the 3pt line and half-court, instead of sagging back, the whole teams' energy picks up. They also need to go over picks, instead of taking the easy way out of going under. The Celtics' pretty much play smaller than the opponent 90% of the time, thus they need to use their quickness to deny passes, harass ball handlers and challenge perimeter shots. It's an effort/tired/schedule thing IMO

On offense, Kemba can get anywhere, on anyone, at any time. Not concerned about the Celtics scoring ability one whit, they can play off Kemba's ability to penetrate/breakdown defenses. Smart being the backup PG, when Kemba rests during the playoffs will be fine.

Playoff rotations will shorten, players will be rested, as long as the defensive effort is there they will be competitive.
 

lovegtm

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It's pretty funny that most of the Celtics current issues have very, very little to do with size and rebounding, and everything to do with them not executing what they should be good at defensively: switching, communication, and taking away the airspace of shooters.
 

Big John

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Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk is another sniper who would be cheaper than some of the others, e.g. Bertans or Bjelica.
 

benhogan

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It's pretty funny that most of the Celtics current issues have very, very little to do with size and rebounding, and everything to do with them not executing what they should be good at defensively: switching, communication, and taking away the airspace of shooters.
Theis/Kanter have delivered good value. Multiple cheap 5s is a smart approach
 

lovegtm

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Theis/Kanter have delivered good value. Multiple cheap 5s is a smart approach
Yeah, I can't decide if it's a huge feature or a huge bug that their base style requires so much physical intensity+mental focus to be effective. Really really interested to see how it works or doesn't in the playoffs. I expect the team is too.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Brad went to him [Langford] early and then he wasn't seen again until garbage time. Something he's also done with Javonte, Carson, Grant, etc. I doubt it changes the outcome of the game, but giving Romeo Semi's second half minutes may have kept the game closer because Romeo actually seems like a player with a good defensive mindset.
He looked out of sync to me, which is not unexpected given the long layoff due to illness and to the Celtics defense as a whole looking out of sync. They need to get hom minutes because there is growth potential with him that you don't have with other guys.
Anyone who thinks a non productive Wanamaker is "fine" is ignoring the data. If he cannot credibly fill in and be effective in multi-guard lineups, he has very little value to this team even now.

Maybe he snaps out of his slump but if this continues the Cs should probably give his minutes to one of the kids or make a trade. But Wanamaker as a black hole of sorts is not "fine".
He's "fine" as a 4th or 5th guard, but overexposed and decidedly not fine as a 3rd guard.
 

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A few thoughts on last night’s game:

— With Kemba and Jaylen out, it was a bad time for JT to have an off night. Would’ve been a blowout if Smart hadn’t gunned shamelessly (and effectively).

— If Romeo is going to be a DNP-CD when Jaylen is out and Tatum is having an off night, he should be getting reps in Maine.

— Williams and Wanamaker were awful. Despite the score sheet, so was Waters. He’s IT-level bad on D and doesn’t have the offensive talent to compensate.

— Booker was the best player on the floor. The C’s forced him into a bunch of tough shots, but he made a lot of them. Probably would’ve gone for 50+ if the game were closer (C’s were down double digits most of the second half.)

— Not many teams have an athletic true 5, but Ayton is one. The C’s don’t really have a good defensive matchup for a player like that.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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A few thoughts on last night’s game:

— With Kemba and Jaylen out, it was a bad time for JT to have an off night. Would’ve been a blowout if Smart hadn’t gunned shamelessly (and effectively).

— If Romeo is going to be a DNP-CD when Jaylen is out and Tatum is having an off night, he should be getting reps in Maine.

— Williams and Wanamaker were awful. Despite the score sheet, so was Waters. He’s IT-level bad on D and doesn’t have the offensive talent to compensate.

— Booker was the best player on the floor. The C’s forced him into a bunch of tough shots, but he made a lot of them. Probably would’ve gone for 50+ if the game were closer (C’s were down double digits most of the second half.)

— Not many teams have an athletic true 5, but Ayton is one. The C’s don’t really have a good defensive matchup for a player like that.
Last night underscored the need for another scorer. If they have someone who can come in and create their own shot while not giving it all back on defense, they likely win that game. I think the C's will ask on Alec Burks who isn't a great player but is a capable bench scorer and probably won't cost a lot. Unfortunately, most of the other teams in the East, with Philadelphia being the main one, can use him as well.
 

bigq

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To me last night the Celtics biggest problems looked like length and defense. Every time they clawed back to get within reach they seemed to give up a mostly uncontested three or lose a rebound. Phoenix is a big team and they played like it. I think Brown and TL would have helped last night. The Celtics slow starts in the first quarter don’t help either.
 

Sprowl

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Last night underscored the need for another scorer. If they have someone who can come in and create their own shot while not giving it all back on defense, they likely win that game. I think the C's will ask on Alec Burks who isn't a great player but is a capable bench scorer and probably won't cost a lot. Unfortunately, most of the other teams in the East, with Philadelphia being the main one, can use him as well.
I think they have that scorer in Langford, but it's clear that Stevens doesn't trust him yet. Perhaps he's a step slow on rotations (like Brown as a rookie), so Green, Ojeleye, Wanamaker and Waters get the minutes, and put up 3-for-18.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I think they have that scorer in Langford, but it's clear that Stevens doesn't trust him yet. Perhaps he's a step slow on rotations (like Brown as a rookie), so Green, Ojeleye, Wanamaker and Waters get the minutes, and put up 3-for-18.
Depending on a rookie with limited run down the stretch - while it has worked out for the Celtics with Tatum - isn't a recipe for success. If they can snag a veteran scorer for a relatively small price, they have to do it.
 

128

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I'm watching Pacers-Nuggets, and McDermott is on fire: 18 point in 16 minutes.

Oh, for the C's to have a reserve, even one as defensively suspect as McDermott, who could get that hot.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Depending on a rookie with limited run down the stretch - while it has worked out for the Celtics with Tatum - isn't a recipe for success. If they can snag a veteran scorer for a relatively small price, they have to do it.
The biggest challenge is finding a veteran scorer who is a) expiring b) available and c) having a salary match to trade. You need to check off all 3 boxes to even have a conversation.
Crabbe checked off 2 of the 3. E’Twaun Moore would be an ideal fit but he may not even check off 2 and certainly not 3.
I don’t have time right now but here is a link if anyone wants to make a list of possible candidates.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The biggest challenge is finding a veteran scorer who is a) expiring b) available and c) having a salary match to trade. You need to check off all 3 boxes to even have a conversation.
Crabbe checked off 2 of the 3. E’Twaun Moore would be an ideal fit but he may not even check off 2 and certainly not 3.
I don’t have time right now but here is a link if anyone wants to make a list of possible candidates.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/
Again, by all accounts, GS will be looking to move Alec Burks before the deadline. I would be looking at him very closely were I Ainge. He is being paid just over $2.3mm so the Cs can find a salary match pretty easily and they may also be able to offer the Dubs a pretty attractive young piece in return without mortgaging their future. As I noted earlier, because of his skillset as well as his affordable, expiring deal, Burks will likely have a lot of suitors including the 76ers and Rockets to name a few.
 

BigSoxFan

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The biggest challenge is finding a veteran scorer who is a) expiring b) available and c) having a salary match to trade. You need to check off all 3 boxes to even have a conversation.
Crabbe checked off 2 of the 3. E’Twaun Moore would be an ideal fit but he may not even check off 2 and certainly not 3.
I don’t have time right now but here is a link if anyone wants to make a list of possible candidates.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/
Isaiah is shooting 41% from 3 pt land...
 

HomeRunBaker

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Isaiah is shooting 41% from 3 pt land...
I watched a few Wizards games recently and their entire defense broke down midway through nearly every possession he was on the floor leading to dunk after dunk. Defensive metrics can be tricky since it is a team unit but when Isaiah is on the floor the Wizards opponents score 11 more pts per 100 poss then when he is off the floor. These numbers pass the eye test so I’m doubting their is anything tricky about them except I’m surprised it isn’t closer to 20 lol. A big no to Isaiah.
 

lovegtm

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I watched a few Wizards games recently and their entire defense broke down midway through nearly every possession he was on the floor leading to dunk after dunk. Defensive metrics can be tricky since it is a team unit but when Isaiah is on the floor the Wizards opponents score 11 more pts per 100 poss then when he is off the floor. These numbers pass the eye test so I’m doubting their is anything tricky about them except I’m surprised it isn’t closer to 20 lol. A big no to Isaiah.
It's hilarious that you even have to justify this: we all got to see the IT experience up close and personal. He's a really, really, really bad defender who makes it hard to have any sort of strong team defense. And that was before the devastating injury...
 

InstaFace

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If we did bring him in just for situational stuff, though, we could send a Brinks truck to pick him up from the airport.

Gotta think about all sides of it.
 

BigSoxFan

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It's hilarious that you even have to justify this: we all got to see the IT experience up close and personal. He's a really, really, really bad defender who makes it hard to have any sort of strong team defense. And that was before the devastating injury...
Eh, this team can’t defend Yi Jianlian’s chair right now anyways.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I watched a few Wizards games recently and their entire defense broke down midway through nearly every possession he was on the floor leading to dunk after dunk. Defensive metrics can be tricky since it is a team unit but when Isaiah is on the floor the Wizards opponents score 11 more pts per 100 poss then when he is off the floor. These numbers pass the eye test so I’m doubting their is anything tricky about them except I’m surprised it isn’t closer to 20 lol. A big no to Isaiah.
He also doesn't get to the line anymore, which is probably wise from a self-preservation point of view but eliminates a key part of his offensive value when he was a Celtic.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It's hilarious that you even have to justify this: we all got to see the IT experience up close and personal. He's a really, really, really bad defender who makes it hard to have any sort of strong team defense. And that was before the devastating injury...
No no no you don't understand. We saw the IT defensive experience 3-4 years ago. That version of IT is like Patrick Bev compared to the 2020 version.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He also doesn't get to the line anymore, which is probably wise from a self-preservation point of view but eliminates a key part of his offensive value when he was a Celtic.
Like many 6-ft and below guards when they lose their first step it renders them pretty useless. He can still find gaps when their are holes but his issue now is with separation which he cannot create anymore. The reason why he's still able to put points up for the Wizards is that most of their games are defended loosely.
 

lovegtm

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If we did bring him in just for situational stuff, though, we could send a Brinks truck to pick him up from the airport.

Gotta think about all sides of it.
The evil part of me would really, really want to see this play out. It would be like playing a practical joke about remission on someone terminally ill.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I'd be shocked if DA gives up anything of value for this season. While Kemba has been as advertised, I don't think the Cs go far unless JT, JB, and GH can be more consistent, and maybe that's something that is a year away.

During the game last night, a graphic pointed out that going into this season, the Cs were the least experienced team in the league.

It's also hard to get a read on this team as this article reports that the Cs top 7 players have only played five games together this season.
 

Auger34

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I'd be shocked if DA gives up anything of value for this season. While Kemba has been as advertised, I don't think the Cs go far unless JT, JB, and GH can be more consistent, and maybe that's something that is a year away.

During the game last night, a graphic pointed out that going into this season, the Cs were the least experienced team in the league.

It's also hard to get a read on this team as this article reports that the Cs top 7 players have only played five games together this season.
With the Grizzlies pick looking like its going to convey this year, doesn't Danny almost have to trade pick(s) for vets? Or would you expect him to kick the can down the road and trade this years 1st for a future 1st from a different team?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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With the Grizzlies pick looking like its going to convey this year, doesn't Danny almost have to trade pick(s) for vets? Or would you expect him to kick the can down the road and trade this years 1st for a future 1st from a different team?
I think DA's history is that he's not going to trade future value for current asset unless he thinks it makes a huge impact on the outcome of this season. But even if he sits tight, he has a lot of options for that pick: try to bundle assets to move up in the draft; if GH opts-out (which I think is unlikely), he'll have an open roster spot; he could cut bait with Wanamaker or Poirer or even Javonte Green; or he could draft another stash player.
But you're correct, maybe at the end of the day, DA just trades that pick for a future pick. There doesn't seem to be any shortage of teams who would rather pick today than next year.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I mentioned IT in the Bucks game thread but mostly as a joke. It’s too bad he is literally unplayable at the defensive end because 15-20 minute a game of him making threes off the bench probably wouldn’t be the worst thing. He’s my favorite Celtic of all time though so I’m a little biased.
 

lovegtm

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Pretty revealing that Wanamaker only played in DEEP garbage time, now that everyone is healthy. Brad really wanted to win this one (put Kemba and Hayward in up about 30 mid-4th), so this is probably indicative of how playoff rotations would look, depending on matchup.
 

lovegtm

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Also I thought this win showed how the theory of this team can work, and also why there will be more frustrating stretches before the year is over.

Their optimal style requires a LOT of energy, and they don't have the vet bench depth to supply the quality fresh legs you need to do that for 82 games. But I'm now cautiously optimistic that they have a switch to flip/gear to find in the playoffs, where you're always on at least a day's rest and also can see light at the end of the tunnel for each series.

Also, playoff Brad has generally done a good job shortening rotations and hunting matchups, so I'm not going to pay a ton of attention to 82-game rotation vagaries.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Here's an article that shows six defensive breakdowns against the Suns that are indicative of why the Cs lost six of eight games.

Here's the last video - showing Green not switching onto Booker as his responsibility. There are five more examples showing other communication/switching problems just like this. Fortunately, I think this happens a lot less when the Fab Five plus Theis are on the court.

https://videopress.com/v/AwqoW8Rj
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Here's an article that shows six defensive breakdowns against the Suns that are indicative of why the Cs lost six of eight games.

Here's the last video - showing Green not switching onto Booker as his responsibility. There are five more examples showing other communication/switching problems just like this. Fortunately, I think this happens a lot less when the Fab Five plus Theis are on the court.

https://videopress.com/v/AwqoW8Rj
The Athletic has an article about how Stevens used the video of their defensive lapses to get everyone back on the same page on their defense:
The Celtics understood the world would be watching their matchup with the Lakers. But before stepping onto the big stage, they prepared for it by urging each other to take better care of the little things. In what Marcus Smart described as a film session unlike any he had ever experienced with the Celtics, head coach Brad Stevens had players essentially grade every minor detail of Saturday night’s loss to the Suns.

The Celtics normally watch just select clips from recent games. This time, they watched every defensive play from the first half of the defeat. The coaching staff normally leads the instruction. This time, Stevens stopped the action regularly to give the players an opportunity to critique themselves. It might not have been the most groundbreaking coaching wrinkle ever, but Smart considered it a refreshing, collaborative way for the Celtics players to evaluate their recent slippage.

“It was really just holding ourselves accountable,” Smart said. “We looked at every possession and he would pause it and we would ask ourselves, ‘Did we do our job?’ We went through the game plan and we checked off the list if we did our job. If we didn’t, we put a mark up on the board, ‘no.’ If we did, we put a mark up on the board, ‘yes.’ So for us, it was really not so much getting on us but really allowing us to learn. And not overreacting too much (to a recent losing skid).”
https://theathletic.com/1549997/2020/01/21/big-win-over-lakers-started-long-before-tip-off-victory-began-in-the-film-room/
Sounds like a kinder, more gentle version of what Belichick does.
 

InstaFace

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Frank Vogel is a bit of a dick even in defeat:

"'Bring it.' That was the halftime adjustment," Vogel said. "We didn't bring it in the first half. So, 'Pick it up. Bring it.' We tried to come out with some aggression in the second half, but credit the Celtics. They played exceptional. They're a desperate team. They lost six out of eight. Needed a win, needed to play well, and they did."
I mean, I think he meant it as a compliment that the Celtics played as if they were "desperate", but still.
 

Erik Hanson's Hook

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Greenie is buying the Celtics. Nothing earth-shattering, but at least they're catching some national eyes. Little snippet begins at 3:20

 

mikeot

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Also I thought this win showed how the theory of this team can work, and also why there will be more frustrating stretches before the year is over.

Their optimal style requires a LOT of energy, and they don't have the vet bench depth to supply the quality fresh legs you need to do that for 82 games. But I'm now cautiously optimistic that they have a switch to flip/gear to find in the playoffs, where you're always on at least a day's rest and also can see light at the end of the tunnel for each series.

Also, playoff Brad has generally done a good job shortening rotations and hunting matchups, so I'm not going to pay a ton of attention to 82-game rotation vagaries.
Good insight to tide us over with as we endure the rest of the regular season.
 
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CreightonGubanich

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Also I thought this win showed how the theory of this team can work, and also why there will be more frustrating stretches before the year is over.

Their optimal style requires a LOT of energy, and they don't have the vet bench depth to supply the quality fresh legs you need to do that for 82 games. But I'm now cautiously optimistic that they have a switch to flip/gear to find in the playoffs, where you're always on at least a day's rest and also can see light at the end of the tunnel for each series.

Also, playoff Brad has generally done a good job shortening rotations and hunting matchups, so I'm not going to pay a ton of attention to 82-game rotation vagaries.
I agree, and it also demonstrates yet again that this team really needs all five of their best players healthy and contributing to truly be a contender. They need Smart and Brown's perimeter defense working in concert together, they need both Kemba and Tatum's ability to create shots (and Hayward and Brown secondarily as well), they need the auxiliary playmaking from Hayward and Smart when Kemba's bottled up.

When it works, it's a beautiful, unselfish version of basketball, with the whole first unit working in concert offensively and defensively. The ball doesn't stick on offense, and they generate good looks by everybody passing up decent shots for great ones. Everyone can, at least theoretically, pass, shoot, drive closeouts and defend at least their own position. The wings can switch everything.

That's probably how they have to play, given that they don't have a top-10 player. Still, it just feels fragile. There's so many possible points of failure given that they have to full optimize like five different dudes in order to be at their best.
 

lovegtm

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I agree, and it also demonstrates yet again that this team really needs all five of their best players healthy and contributing to truly be a contender. They need Smart and Brown's perimeter defense working in concert together, they need both Kemba and Tatum's ability to create shots (and Hayward and Brown secondarily as well), they need the auxiliary playmaking from Hayward and Smart when Kemba's bottled up.

When it works, it's a beautiful, unselfish version of basketball, with the whole first unit working in concert offensively and defensively. The ball doesn't stick on offense, and they generate good looks by everybody passing up decent shots for great ones. Everyone can, at least theoretically, pass, shoot, drive closeouts and defend at least their own position. The wings can switch everything.

That's probably how they have to play, given that they don't have a top-10 player. Still, it just feels fragile. There's so many possible points of failure given that they have to full optimize like five different dudes in order to be at their best.
Yeah, I definitely agree that it's fragile, but we might be over-stating the fragility a bit. As long as the top 5 guys+Theis+Semi are healthy, they can play a very connected style of defense that isn't reliant on being "on" offensively, and that in turn generates easier looks the other way. It's very health-dependent, but that's a risk they had to take after the way last year shook out.
 

cmurphycode

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plus, every team's championship chances are health dependent. As Houston fans will gladly tell you about the 2018 WC Finals.
At first I had the same reaction, but I think the point is a bit more subtle. I think the point is that losing a crucial player will mean you don't win a championship. Then, you ask which players are crucial.

On a team with a very top heavy lineup, if one of their top 2 goes down, they're in trouble. But if one of their best 3-5 goes down, maybe they're ok. Whereas the claim is, if any of the Celtics top 4 or 5 go down, they will not win.

Then it's just a numbers game, and the Celtics have a higher chance of losing because they have more tickets.