2019-20 Offseason Discussion

sean1562 · Jan 8, 2020

To compete with the upper echelon teams in the AL, we would have needed to spend a ton of money this offseason that would have definitively taken us out of the Mookie sweepstakes next year. What moves would we have needed to make to help us compete with the Yankees for the division this year? They were a 103 win team last season without Severino, Stanton, Andujar, or Cole. I dont blame the front office if they looked at the competition, realized that we are realistically competing for one of the wild card spots, and decided to take some low risk bets. If Mookie and Sale have great seasons we are definitely going to be in the WC hunt in September. Playoffs are a tossup, as we all just saw the WC Nats beat the Dodgers and the Astros in the postseason.

We aren't going to have a better record than the Astros, Yankees, and Twins. Next season we have to be better than the Athletics, Rays, Indians, and White Sox.

Minneapolis Millers · Jan 8, 2020

I don't understand why people think the Sale deal was a "head-scratcher." You can think it was a poor risk, but it absolutely made sense. Sale signed a 5/$145M extension (with an opt out and some escalators and possible extra vesting year). At roughly the same age, we gave Price his 7/$217M deal. In that comparison, DD "saved" as much as 2/$72M by extending Sale, precisely because he had some lingering health (although not quality/performance) questions.

The younger, healthier (but arguably less proven) Cole just got 9/$324M - over twice as much. Strasburg got 7/$245M - $100M more. I get that Sale's health made his deal more risky, but the risk was clearly accounted for in the reduced years and dollars. The team could have waited to see how he did in 2019, but if Sale put up 180 innings with his career average of 140 ERA+, he would not have taken a QO, and he would have been looking at offers of 6+ years and $200M+.

IMO, the Eovaldi deal was less necessary and involved more risk. Paying $17M per to an injury prone guy who projects to be your #3 or 4 starter is the more significant factor in the team's current cost-cutting approach than paying a reduced amount for a possibly damaged Chris F'n Sale.

Yelling At Clouds · Jan 8, 2020

Until 2018, Sale was about as durable as pitchers get. He made 29 or more starts every year but one between 2012 and 2018, and even in his injury-marred 2018, he made 27 starts (he made 26 starts in 2014, which qualifies as an outlier for him). We’re not talking about 2005 Mark Prior here.

There’s also precedent for pitchers to come back from an injury-related down year (or two) to become useful if not dominant again. Examples include Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, and, closer to home, John Lackey.

Savin Hillbilly · Jan 8, 2020

Danny_Darwin said:
There’s also precedent for pitchers to come back from an injury-related down year (or two) to become useful if not dominant again. Examples include Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, and, closer to home, John Lackey.

Yes, but you don't invest in that comeback speculatively when there's no need to, just to get a discount. That doesn't seem like a smart form of bargain-hunting to me. You wait until the pitcher has re-established his health and performance level, and then invest in that if you can. If he'd been a FA, then you have to take the risk (or not). But he wasn't, so they didn't.

Tyrone Biggums · Jan 8, 2020

Red(s)HawksFan said:
What should the plan be? Serious question. The "holes" on the roster are perceptual. It's not as though they don't have someone to play 1B or 2B already. It's just not necessarily who many (most?) fans would prefer to see. It's arguable that would be true no matter what Bloom did this winter. It might just be that the plan is to tweak the roster around the edges while not making large contract investments then see where that takes them. The core of the roster that won 108 games and a title 15 months ago is still there right now. There are roads to take between build an all star juggernaut and tear it all down to the foundation.

The core of the roster won 85 games last year. The real talent is probably somewhere in between. They don't have a 1st baseman. They also don't have an 8th inning guy assuming Workman starts the year as the closer. Lots of decent arms off the table

Minneapolis Millers · Jan 8, 2020

Tyrone Biggums said:
... They don't have a 1st baseman. They also don't have an 8th inning guy assuming Workman starts the year as the closer. Lots of decent arms off the table

These are the types of guys that Tampa seems to create out of thin air every year. Trust in Chaim to fill these holes efficiently.

Red(s)HawksFan · Jan 8, 2020

Tyrone Biggums said:
The core of the roster won 85 games last year. The real talent is probably somewhere in between. They don't have a 1st baseman. They also don't have an 8th inning guy assuming Workman starts the year as the closer. Lots of decent arms off the table

Chavis plays 1B, Dalbec can as well, and it's not like it's the most difficult position to learn. There are also a significant number of free agents still available who are capable of playing 1B (including old friend Mitchy 2-Bags). They have 14 pitchers capable of relief on the 40-man roster, it's not as though the 8th inning will go unclaimed. Besides, I think we should accept the fact that there is no such as an "eighth inning guy" in the Red Sox bullpen. They don't deploy guys that way anymore and something about his history suggests Chaim Bloom isn't going to demand that the Sox go back to the old "traditional" deployment structure either.

As for the core that won 85 games...that core lacked a healthy Chris Sale, a healthy David Price, and a healthy Nate Eovaldi for a fair chunk of the season. Good health for those three probably gives them an additional 4-5 wins easily.

stepson_and_toe · Jan 8, 2020

Red(s)HawksFan said:
Chavis plays 1B, Dalbec can as well, and it's not like it's the most difficult position to learn.

Maybe it's not hard to learn how to play 1st but how about hitting? After n games Chavis was batting:
15g -- 333/460/725
35g -- 269/364/507
45g -- 247/333/453
85g -- 260/330/458 (slight upturn in AVG but not much else)
95g -- 254/322/444 (end of his season)

Dalbec played 83% of his games in Double-A where he hit .234 in 105 games.

Yelling At Clouds · Jan 8, 2020

Savin Hillbilly said:
Yes, but you don't invest in that comeback speculatively when there's no need to, just to get a discount. That doesn't seem like a smart form of bargain-hunting to me. You wait until the pitcher has re-established his health and performance level, and then invest in that if you can. If he'd been a FA, then you have to take the risk (or not). But he wasn't, so they didn't.

My point was more of a "let's not start shoveling dirt on the guy just yet."

nvalvo · Jan 8, 2020

stepson_and_toe said:
Maybe it's not hard to learn how to play 1st but how about hitting? After n games Chavis was batting:
15g -- 333/460/725
35g -- 269/364/507
45g -- 247/333/453
85g -- 260/330/458 (slight upturn in AVG but not much else)
95g -- 254/322/444 (end of his season)

Dalbec played 83% of his games in Double-A where he hit .234 in 105 games.

Sure, but nobody's interested in Bobby Dalbec because of his batting average. He's interesting because he hit 27 HR in 135 games in AA/AAA and can take a walk.

He's not a great prospect, but he is a prospect. It's certainly fair to ask if he'll make enough contact to survive in MLB, but his strikeout rate has been (mostly) falling as he's advanced through the system. A .210/.325/.450 line isn't the prettiest thing to watch, but it could help a ball club.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Jan 8, 2020

Wasn't Chavis hurt around game 35? And the guy was a rookie... I don't think he's ever going to be close to the player we have in Devers... but lots of posters here were ready to bury him after one full season......

..... and speaking of Devers- this was brought up months ago- would it be a smarter thing this season to punt this season (make the best possible deal for Mookie, Price, etc*....) and ink Devers to a long term contract buying out arb years?

*etc being guys like Workman, Vazquez, Barnes (obviously JBJ) and build a future around Devers and X as the core, Benintendi, etc.... (who I'm bullish on a huge bounce back this season**)

**And I'm never wrong... see my prediction for Devers from last offseason, so listen to me... Christian Yellich watch out!

Green Monster · Jan 8, 2020

Sandy Leon Trotsky said:
*........ and ink Devers to a long term contract buying out arb years?

Seems like several teams have done that recently with their better prospects. Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert , Brandon Lowe come to mind. i suppose Alex Bregman would also fall into that category.

In my lifetime · Jan 9, 2020

DeadlySplitter · Jan 9, 2020

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1215337046400737280

chrisfont9 · Jan 9, 2020

Savin Hillbilly said:
Yes, but you don't invest in that comeback speculatively when there's no need to, just to get a discount. That doesn't seem like a smart form of bargain-hunting to me. You wait until the pitcher has re-established his health and performance level, and then invest in that if you can. If he'd been a FA, then you have to take the risk (or not). But he wasn't, so they didn't.

Well it may have involved some sort of projections by the Sox' analysts about the next FA market. Generally the price only goes up, and there was likely to be a pretty hyped up market for SPs with Cole and Strasburg available. That cuts both ways, but swallowing a bit of injury risk to keep Sale out of any crazed bidding war looks smart in hindsight, and may have been anticipated by the team. Of course all of this is premised on the Sox believing that they needed to keep Sale, health risk or no, which is what you'd imagine they think after trading Moncada and Kopech for him. It's easier for us to talk about just letting him go than it is for them, I would guess.

ehaz · Jan 9, 2020

View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1215414692501389316

Pure speculation on Heyman's part, but interesting...

Tyrone Biggums · Jan 9, 2020

ehaz said:
View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1215414692501389316

Pure speculation on Heyman's part, but interesting...

I'm a big fan too. But I don't read that much into it except the Rays might have finally gotten hosed on a trade.

RedOctober3829 · Jan 10, 2020

View: https://twitter.com/Trags/status/1215733088048812038

Brice was pretty good last year for the Marlins. 1-0, 3.43 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 46 Ks in 44.2 IP. ERA+ of 124. Tends to walk hitters having 18 last year.

Red(s)HawksFan · Jan 10, 2020

Obligatory note that the DFA of Hernandez does not mean he's gone. Most likely he clears waivers and is outrighted to the minors, same as Brian Johnson and Sam Travis.

Tyrone Biggums · Jan 10, 2020

Hernandez will probably clear. I like Brice quite a bit. Nice under the radar move. The 18 walks probably have a little bit to do with his forearm issue.

IpswichSox · Jan 11, 2020

Shaughnessy has a new story this morning , based on an email exchange last night with John Henry, about the importance of resetting the CBT versus being competitive.

And now I'm really confused.

Red Sox owner John Henry thinks the media is misrepresenting the team’s offseason mission. In a rare e-mail exchange with this correspondent, Henry stated, “We are focused on competitiveness over the next 5 years over and above resetting . . .”

P'tucket rhymes with... · Jan 11, 2020

IpswichSox said:
Shaughnessy has a new story this morning , based on an email exchange last night with John Henry, about the importance of resetting the CBT versus being competitive.

And now I'm really confused.

It's a little slick, as it sidesteps the question of how important they think a reset is in maintaining their competitiveness over the next five years.

E5 Yaz · Jan 11, 2020

"In a rare e-mail exchange with this correspondent ..."

JWH rarely speaks to the help

bosockboy · Jan 11, 2020

Guessing they weren’t able to move JBJ or Price and are stuck between the two ideologies. Just stay the course and go for it in 2020.

E5 Yaz · Jan 11, 2020

bosockboy said:
Guessing they weren’t able to move JBJ or Price and are stuck between the two ideologies. Just stay the course and go for it in 2020.

The trade deadline passed?

Harry Hooper · Jan 11, 2020

The Sox and JBJ reached an agreement (not an arb award), but I believe the Sox can still release JBJ in ST and be responsible for only 30 days pay, yes?

Dewey'sCannon · Jan 11, 2020

ehaz said:
View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1215414692501389316

Pure speculation on Heyman's part, but interesting...

Aren't the Cardinals one of the team that's been speculated as being interested in Price?

One of the problems with dealing Price is the hole in creates in the rotation. Getting someone like Libatore back would help solve that.

Price + Chavis (and maybe + Hembree) for Libatore and Carpenter? Carpenter is also on a "bad" contract (2/37 and an option) but could hold down 1B until Dalbec is ready. If we need to dump more money to St. Louis, maybe expand the deal to include JBJ and Bader.

jon abbey · Jan 11, 2020

Liberatore just turned 20 and pitched 78 innings in high A last year, he's not helping any big league team until 2022 or 2023.

Plympton91 · Jan 11, 2020

jon abbey said:
Liberatore just turned 20 and pitched 78 innings in high A last year, he's not helping any big league team until 2022 or 2023.

chawson said:
Liberatore finished the 2019 season in A-ball so he wouldn’t fill a hole in the rotation for the next two years at least.

And there’s a chance he’ll never help at all. But, both of these are far too stridently worded. If he has health and success there’s no reason he can’t move to AA to start this season, finish in AAA , and be a September call up ready to compete for a rotation slot in 2021.

iddoc · Jan 11, 2020

Harry Hooper said:
The Sox and JBJ reached an agreement (not an arb award), but I believe the Sox can still release JBJ in ST and be responsible for only 30 days pay, yes?

Since it is not an arb award, I am quite sure that it is a guaranteed contract...so no.

Harry Hooper · Jan 11, 2020

iddoc said:
Since it is not an arb award, I am quite sure that it is a guaranteed contract...so no.

You may be right. It's a non-FA renewal contract for one year in lieu of an arbitrator's decision, hence the question.

scottyno · Jan 11, 2020

Harry Hooper said:
The Sox and JBJ reached an agreement (not an arb award), but I believe the Sox can still release JBJ in ST and be responsible for only 30 days pay, yes?

Why would they ever have to release him? No way some team wouldn't take him for that price for nothing if it came down to needing to dump him in a trade.

Harry Hooper · Jan 11, 2020

scottyno said:
Why would they ever have to release him? No way some team wouldn't take him for that price for nothing if it came down to needing to dump him in a trade.

Yes, it rarely ever happens as teams do a trade instead. I was just curious.

JimD · Jan 11, 2020

IpswichSox said:
Shaughnessy has a new story this morning , based on an email exchange last night with John Henry, about the importance of resetting the CBT versus being competitive.

And now I'm really confused.

That felt ... forced.

Dewey'sCannon · Jan 11, 2020

Plympton91 said:
And there’s a chance he’ll never help at all. But, both of these are far too stridently worded. If he has health and success there’s no reason he can’t move to AA to start this season, finish in AAA , and be a September call up ready to compete for a rotation slot in 2021.

Sorry - my bad - should have checked this - saw how high he was on the top 100 rankings and assumed he'd be closer to the bigs ( I failed to remember what Felix Unger told us about what happens when we assume). Never mind (Emily Latella voice).

Lose Remerswaal · Jan 11, 2020

E5 Yaz said:
"In a rare e-mail exchange with this correspondent ..."

JWH rarely speaks to the help

not the Downstairs help. Sheesh

Harry Hooper · Jan 11, 2020

JimD said:
That felt ... forced.

JWH just got an updated report on the season ticket sales figures for 2020.

YTF · Jan 11, 2020

chawson said:
View: https://twitter.com/dwolfsonkstp/status/1216111551041679360?s=21

Hildenberger was pretty interesting in 2017-18 before a flexor strain in his right arm messed him up last year. If he can be fixed maybe he’s a reasonable facsimile of Carson Smith.

More so if he can't be fixed. All kidding aside it would be great to hit on one of these no risk flyers.

Maximus · Jan 11, 2020

Harry Hooper said:
JWH just got an updated report on the season ticket sales figures for 2020.

Precisely my thinking too.

PC Drunken Friar · Jan 11, 2020

NomarsFool said:
Forbes released an analysis today putting the value of Fenway Sports Group at $6.6 billion. It's the third highest sports venture after Kroenke Sports and Jerry Jones.

Just saw this. I hope people realize how big a billion is. 1 million seconds is like 11 days. 1 billion seconds is almost 32 years. Fucking pay Mookie.

BaseballJones · Jan 11, 2020

PC Drunken Friar said:
Just saw this. I hope people realize how big a billion is. 1 million seconds is like 11 days. 1 billion seconds is almost 32 years. Fucking pay Mookie.

Playing with big numbers is fun. The average annual salary in the United States is just under $47k. Let's call it $50k to make the math easier. The dude making $50k needs to work for 20 years in order to make $1 million. That's not even taking taxes into account. 20 years.

That same guy, in order to make $1 billion, would need to work for TWENTY THOUSAND years. And FSG is worth $6.6 billion. So in order to get THERE, this guy would need to work 132 thousand years.

132 thousand years ago is 32,000 years before the first structures were built by humans in Egypt near the border with modern-day Sudan.

When you think about how much money $6.6 billion is, yeah, paying for Mookie...shouldn't be any problem at all.

There are competitive baseball reasons for not paying Mookie whatever he wants (luxury tax comes with draft penalties, for example), but whether Henry can afford it....isn't even an issue.

P'tucket rhymes with... · Jan 11, 2020

PC Drunken Friar said:
Just saw this. I hope people realize how big a billion is. 1 million seconds is like 11 days. 1 billion seconds is almost 32 years. Fucking pay Mookie.

JWH understands as well as anyone that you get to a billion by not paying the Mookies out there.

Plympton91 · Jan 11, 2020

chawson said:
View: https://twitter.com/dwolfsonkstp/status/1216111551041679360?s=21

Hildenberger was pretty interesting in 2017-18 before a flexor strain in his right arm messed him up last year. If he can be fixed maybe he’s a reasonable facsimile of Carson Smith.

This is very good news. First signing all winter that I’ve felt like there was an upside.

JohnnyTheBone · Jan 11, 2020

chawson said:
View: https://twitter.com/dwolfsonkstp/status/1216111551041679360?s=21

Hildenberger was pretty interesting in 2017-18 before a flexor strain in his right arm messed him up last year. If he can be fixed maybe he’s a reasonable facsimile of Carson Smith.

Insanity. I'm happy. I'm surprised. Can't believe we got em.

Plympton91 · Jan 11, 2020

BaseballJones said:
Playing with big numbers is fun. The average annual salary in the United States is just under $47k. Let's call it $50k to make the math easier. The dude making $50k needs to work for 20 years in order to make $1 million. That's not even taking taxes into account. 20 years.

That same guy, in order to make $1 billion, would need to work for TWENTY THOUSAND years. And FSG is worth $6.6 billion. So in order to get THERE, this guy would need to work 132 thousand years.

132 thousand years ago is 32,000 years before the first structures were built by humans in Egypt near the border with modern-day Sudan.

When you think about how much money $6.6 billion is, yeah, paying for Mookie...shouldn't be any problem at all.

There are competitive baseball reasons for not paying Mookie whatever he wants (luxury tax comes with draft penalties, for example), but whether Henry can afford it....isn't even an issue.

1) Mookie wants much closer to half a billion than he does a million.

2 That $6.6 billion includes the soccer team and the NASCAR team, not just the Red Sox. I’m sure we Red Sox fans would be perfectly understanding if Henry used some of the value associated with the Red Sox to subsidize Liverpool right? That’s what you're asking here.

BaseballJones · Jan 11, 2020

Plympton91 said:
1) Mookie wants much closer to half a billion than he does a million.

2 That $6.6 billion includes the soccer team and the NASCAR team, not just the Red Sox. I’m sure we Red Sox fans would be perfectly understanding if Henry used some of the value associated with the Red Sox to subsidize Liverpool right? That’s what you're asking here.

I'm not asking for anything. I'm just pointing out how much money $6.6 billion is. If they paid Mookie a half billion today, it would still leave FSG six point one billion dollars. I'm just saying that money.....isn't really an issue. They have plenty of it.

That's not to say they SHOULD pay Mookie that money. There are still financial considerations and baseball considerations.

bquine · Jan 12, 2020

I know these people exist in a different world than us: but can you ever imagine owning an MLB team and not being like Steinbrenner? That would be my dream.

Lose Remerswaal · Jan 12, 2020

JohnnyTheBone said:
Insanity. I'm happy. I'm surprised. Can't believe we got em.

Took the words right out of my mouth

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