2019-20 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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And Seton Hall after that, going back in the offseason to get his degree even, plus he grew up as a Yankee fan and his dog's name is Jeter (seriously).

I found some reasons to be excited about Granite, chances are still good he doesn't impact NY this year, but:

https://www.twinkietown.com/2018/3/1/17032420/is-zack-granite-better-than-we-think-billy-hamilton-prospects-minnesota-twins-mlb
The evaluation system KATOH (not being used anymore since the guy who did it, Chris Mitchell, got a MLB job and brought his proprietary metrics with him) LOVED him, especially coming into 2018, when it ranked him as the #6 prospect in all of baseball, right between Tatis Jr. and Bo Bichette (!!!):

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2018-top-100-katoh-prospects/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2018-all-katoh-team/
Lastly, coming into 2019, the writer Alex Chamberlain, who was Mike Tauchman's main champion before NY traded for him, picked Tauchman as his top sleeper of the year and Granite right behind him.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/fantasy-fringe-five-a-reintroduction/
Granite evidently has a June 15 optout if NY hasn't called him up yet, and him using that is the most likely outcome for his Yankee tenure, but interesting pickup.
 

bquine

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Given the Yankees' recent success with ex-prospect, fringe major leaguers in their late twenties, I'm going to take this opportunity to be unreasonably excited about Zack Granite.
 

jon abbey

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Bye bye Nestor, he was DFAd last week so needed to be moved. Bird should be next.
 

Big John

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Sorry to see Bird DFAed but he was definitely out of chances and always injured: first the ankle, then the plantar fascia tear.
 

jon abbey

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As we continue to wait to see what happens with Gardner (I am sure he would far prefer to come back to NY, but they need to clear a 40 man spot for him and also I am sure that some other team will offer him more than Cashman), the season that Mike Tauchman put up when he got the chance last year was really really impressive, the best defensive WAA of any player in MLB per game played.

2019 Position Player Leaders in WAA (prorated over 600 PA, min. 250 PA):

1) Cody Bellinger (6.4)
2) Mike Trout (6.3)
3) Christian Yelich (5.6)
4) MIKE TAUCHMAN (5.3)
5) Alex Bregman (5.3)
6) AARON JUDGE (5.2)
7) Fernando Tatis Jr. (5.0)
8) Ketel Marte (4.8)

Position Player Leaders in Defensive WAA during 2019 season (prorated over 600 PA’s, minimum of 250 PA’s):

1) MIKE TAUCHMAN (3.2)
2) AARON JUDGE (2.6)
3) Hunter Renfroe (2.6)
4) Roberto Perez (2.5)
5) Cody Bellinger (2.3)

View: https://twitter.com/MaxWildstein/status/1199372725355208704


View: https://twitter.com/MaxWildstein/status/1199372831345315840
 

terrynever

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Tauchman’s calf injury suffered on a simple single to left field was the killing injury for the 2019 Yankees, IMO. Their outfield was short handed in October. Yanks missed his plate discipline, his hitting and of course his fielding.

I could be sold on Tauchman as the CF next year until Hicks returns. Not sure why Yanks need Gardner.
 

jon abbey

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Hicks will be out half the season and they start to look very thin without Gardner. Right now the OF is Stanton/Tauchman/Judge, but Gardner bumping Stanton back to DH helps their D and their depth (and makes it easier to trade Andujar). I don’t trust Maybin to be good again, I don’t trust Frazier’s D, and I think Gardner’s veteran leadership would be helpful especially with CC gone.
 

sean1562

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the fact that every red sox fan hates him with a passion and that he loves being a yankee has to count for something too, right? seems like the kind of guy that would be happy taking one year deals until he is no longer useful, as long as he gets to play for the yanks. I see the same thing happening with Ryan Zimmerman with the nats. these are the types of players that actually take "hometown discounts"
 

jon abbey

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the fact that every red sox fan hates him with a passion and that he loves being a yankee has to count for something too, right? seems like the kind of guy that would be happy taking one year deals until he is no longer useful, as long as he gets to play for the yanks. I see the same thing happening with Ryan Zimmerman with the nats. these are the types of players that actually take "hometown discounts"
Every report on this is a hundred percent convinced he will come back to NY. The fact that he had such a good year may be confusing things a bit, since if Cashman is offering him 1/10 and another team is offering him 2/26 (just guessing), that is a big chunk of change to pass on. I'm guessing the holdup is more connected to the 40 man though, Cashman needs to move more guys and open up space.
 

jon abbey

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Huh, that's interesting, Boone does like to put a lefty up there but it will be tough to break into that Lindor/DJ/Judge top three*.

*No, I don't actually think NY will pull off a Lindor trade, just some cold stove wishful thinking.
 

terrynever

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Hicks will be out half the season and they start to look very thin without Gardner. Right now the OF is Stanton/Tauchman/Judge, but Gardner bumping Stanton back to DH helps their D and their depth (and makes it easier to trade Andujar). I don’t trust Maybin to be good again, I don’t trust Frazier’s D, and I think Gardner’s veteran leadership would be helpful especially with CC gone.
I would rather not trade Andujar yet. He might have a Howie Kendrick career, with a bit more power. Agree about Maybin. And you are right in another post that Gardner will not sign until Cashman makes a deal to create space on the 40-man.
 

jon abbey

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Also let's not go too too crazy on Tauchman, he did have a shockingly impressive season last year but it was just 300 PAs and he turns 29 next week. As far as the batting order, I don't think it's too predictive and it's small sample sizes but he was way way better hitting 9th (1.123 OPS) than anywhere else (I don't know how to calculate this but it looks like it was roughly .700 OPS combined).

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=tauchmi01&year=2019&t=b
 

jon abbey

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I would rather not trade Andujar yet. He might have a Howie Kendrick career, with a bit more power.
That's an interesting comparison, it's just hard to see how he will get playing time for NY outside of DH and they have plenty of candidates for that. You could send him to AAA to play 3B every day, but then if he sucks defensively (as is likely), he will hurt his trade value even more. I guess you're suggesting he start the season as the main DH with Stanton in LF and Tauchman in CF? That's a thin OF as I said above, and if and when Gardner comes back, Miggy Two Bags gets bumped. Mike Ford has put himself in the mix too, it is crowded (a nice problem to have).
 

Wingack

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Huh, that's interesting, Boone does like to put a lefty up there but it will be tough to break into that Lindor/DJ/Judge top three*.

*No, I don't actually think NY will pull off a Lindor trade, just some cold stove wishful thinking.
Well, if Didi and Gardner are not resigned, distinct possibilities, and Hicks is out with an injury, it will be tough to bury the one lefty bat in the nine hole especially if he is hitting.

Speaking of CLE, the Yankees should be trying to pry away their young pitching, not Lindor.
 

jon abbey

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Speaking of CLE, the Yankees should be trying to pry away their young pitching, not Lindor.
My proposal was for a Lindor/Clevinger package (Gleyber, Andujar, Frazier and maybe a SP prospect if needed), Bieber isn't going anywhere and the rest of those guys don't really move the needle IMO.
 

terrynever

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That's an interesting comparison, it's just hard to see how he will get playing time for NY outside of DH and they have plenty of candidates for that. You could send him to AAA to play 3B every day, but then if he sucks defensively (as is likely), he will hurt his trade value even more. I guess you're suggesting he start the season as the main DH with Stanton in LF and Tauchman in CF? That's a thin OF as I said above, and if and when Gardner comes back, Miggy Two Bags gets bumped. Mike Ford has put himself in the mix too, it is crowded (a nice problem to have).
What about Thairo in the LF picture? He played a few innings there last June. Only if Gardner is not asked back.
 

jon abbey

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And Wade plays OF too, and the newly acquired Zack Granite, and of course Clint Frazier, but I'll be stunned if gritty gutty Brett isn't back.
 

terrynever

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And Wade plays OF too, and the newly acquired Zack Granite, and of course Clint Frazier, but I'll be stunned if gritty gutty Brett isn't back.
You’re right. Just picking your brain. Wade is the best choice yet. That kid has paid his dues, he struggled on the Scranton shuttle, but seems ready to blossom. Cashman will probably trade him.
 

jon abbey

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Most discussion around Cole so far seems to think he will end up with the Angels, with the Yankees also bidding hard but coming up short and who knows who else. I had Cashman going to 8/264 for him after the WS, and I would guess he is probably still roughly around there, I guess we'll see.

Wheeler is the other guy I thought Cashman might go after but he has so many teams seemingly interested that he might end up in Corbin territory (6/140 but with the usual Nats deferrals) which is too much IMO.

Joel Sherman wrote about this today, some of the same things I have been saying here. He doesn't seem to think it's possible/likely for NY to go over $248M this year but my guess is that Hal would approve it for a season if it is for Cole. Paxton, Tanaka and Happ all are FAs after 2020 so NY would be in far better position negotiating with them with Cole and Severino plus German/Montgomery/Deivi/whoever else has developed by then in place already.

https://nypost.com/2019/11/26/yankees-gerrit-cole-decision-hinges-on-2021-fear-deivi-garcia-faith/
 

jon abbey

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Gleyber cries a little on the inside every time JA brings up Lindor.
I am a cold-hearted dude, but I just think it's the only way they can get Lindor before he hits FA in 2 years (26 now, 28 then), and I have long coveted him and he is now at least somewhat available although again much more likely to be moved to the NL, hence the unfortunately necessary (IMO) Gleyber temptation.

Lindor is a switch-hitter and a fantastic defender, but just as importantly, Clevenger would immediately be NY's ace (pending a full return by Severino anyway) and controlled for three more seasons. It would also probably ideally be coupled with a DJ extension, maybe 2/30 (giving him 3/42 total) or 3/40 (4/52)? Then they could go all out for Cole too, Cole/Clevenger/Severino and two internal guys out of the many candidates I am writing about in the young SP thread.

Maybe CLE can be talked into a version of that and then sign Didi too and Didi/Gleyber can come back and try to kick Yankee ass and tweet about it, but the potential of the DJ/Lindor combo in pinstripes covering the middle 2/3 of the infield is pretty exciting. I said since last summer that I think some sort of Lindor/Gleyber swap would make baseball sense for both teams, but also that probably neither team would actually pull the trigger, but it seems at least a bit more likely now. That was 5 1/2 seasons of Gleyber for 2 1/2 of Lindor, now it is 5 for 2 and swinging more towards Gleyber being more valuable. On the 2018 Fangraphs trade value list, Lindor was #2 and Gleyber #20, July 2019 was Gleyber at #12 and Lindor at #13 (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-11-to-20/) and with another half season in the books, the current difference is probably even more.

Also worth keeping in mind if there are any kind of serious discussions with CLE, Matt Blake knows their young pitchers as well as anyone.
 

EvilEmpire

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Yeah, I'd drive Gleyber to the airport if he and some other pieces could bring back Lindor and Clevinger. Not sure what else it would take, but I remain skeptical that Cleveland would take Andujar and Frazier. Yankees do have other assets though.
 

TheDivision

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View: https://twitter.com/theaceofspaeder/status/1202316063083520001?s=21



I know this may not mean anything, but do you all think you go after MadBum or anything like that if you dont get Cole? I would be amazed if the Nats lose Rendon and Strasburg. Rendon seems like he may be gone to the Rangers but Stras really does seem to love it in DC.
If he signs with the Angels, it’s okay because we know Cashman tried. And he tried not out of necessity but more so in terms of luxury because as great as Cole is, he’s not a necessity considering the SP on the team.

A little context: Previously, Cashman was getting grief because he never really made an effort to sign FA big arms the past few years. He was in California yesterday or today wooing Cole so this qualifies as having tried.
 
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Wingack

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If he signs with the Angels, it’s okay because we know Cashman tried. And he tried not out of necessity but more so in terms of luxury because as great as Cole is, he’s not a necessity considering the SP on the team.

A little context: Previously, Cashman was getting grief because he never really made an effort to sign FA big arms the past few years. He was in California yesterday or today wooing Cole so this qualifies as having tried.
In fact he was out there yesterday and today, is coming back home to do a charity thing and then going back out there again next week for the GM winter meetings.

This seems to be a case where he is really actually trying to sign one of the big ace pitchers. If they don't want to sign here that and want to play on the west coast he can't force them to sign with the Yankees, but all signs point to Cashman making a big push to get Cole or Strasburg this offseason and that is all you can really ask for.
 

j-man

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If he signs with the Angels, it’s okay because we know Cashman tried. And he tried not out of necessity but more so in terms of luxury because as great as Cole is, he’s not a necessity considering the SP on the team.

A little context: Previously, Cashman was getting grief because he never really made an effort to sign FA big arms the past few years. He was in California yesterday or today wooing Cole so this qualifies as having tried.
as long as cole does not re-sign in hou i am happy Cole will not help LAA utill 2022 at the best
 

j-man

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but with judge sandcez C due big $ hikes wouild it be betther to sit out this FA period and go full bore next year when paxton tasaka are off the books
 

jon abbey

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I know this may not mean anything, but do you all think you go after MadBum or anything like that if you dont get Cole?
No, I said it yesterday, but I think for NY it will be Cole or nothing. Bumgarner will sign before Cole does, they don't seem interested in Ryu, and I just don't see Strasburg in NY, he'll go back to WAS or a California team.

That being said, I think NY is going to pursue/pursuing Cole as hard as they ever have any FA. I suggested earlier telling him that they would be happy to also sign Martin Maldonado to a 2/12 deal if Cole wanted, since MM was his personal catcher down the stretch last year. The Angels are also going to go after him as hard as they can, but if Cole's focus really is winning as was reported earlier today, the Yankees are clearly way better positioned than the Angels.
 

Wingack

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No, I said it yesterday, but I think for NY it will be Cole or nothing. Bumgarner will sign before Cole does, they don't seem interested in Ryu, and I just don't see Strasburg in NY, he'll go back to WAS or a California team.

That being said, I think NY is going to pursue/pursuing Cole as hard as they ever have any FA. I suggested earlier telling him that they would be happy to also sign Martin Maldonado to a 2/12 deal if Cole wanted, since MM was his personal catcher down the stretch last year. The Angels are also going to go after him as hard as they can, but if Cole's focus really is winning as was reported earlier today, the Yankees are clearly way better positioned than the Angels.
Totally agree. Though I think it is more Cole and Stras or nothing...on the FA market. I still think they will pursue trade options.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, Strasburg would definitely be great, I just think he'll decide to go elsewhere.

NY needs a sure thing #1 SP, they don't need a guy who slots in anywhere else. They currently have Paxton/Severino/Tanaka/German(after suspension)/Happ, plus Montgomery/Deivi/King/Clarke Schmidt behind them.

If they can add someone who slots in as an ace, it would clearly be a huge addition but for someone to improve NY at all, they need to be an upgrade on Happ at #5 (once German is back). I can hear you reply "sure, but a well-built pitching machine would be an upgrade on Happ", but worth remembering that he was NY's best pitcher down the stretch in 2018 and had a 1.65 ERA this September in 5 starts (27.1 innings). Maybe it took him most of the season to figure out how to adjust to the jumping baseballs, dunno. Keep in mind that 2018's SP whipping boys Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn were both dominant in 2019 after leaving NY, both top 10-15 pitchers in MLB (this is too depressing for me to fact check but I believe it is correct).

Cole is of course a great baseball fit for 30 teams, but for NY, he is a perfect fit for roster reasons too. Tanaka, Paxton and (probably) Happ are all FAs after 2020 and making around $51M combined this season. If NY signed Cole, they would be way better positioned to negotiate with Paxton and/or Tanaka after next season, but even if they both left, NY would still have a top 3 of Cole/Severino/German, the latter two controlled through 2023, and they could let the high ceiling kids fight it out for the other spots.

NY is around $210M now according to Cot's, Gardner will still be signed in the $10M-$12M range (my guess), so a Cole signing would put NY over $248M which would actually give NY a kind of freedom to spend more if they choose on large one year deals, since at that point they will have incurred all possible penalties for the 2020 season and it will just cost them more money. So they could theoretically sign all of Gardner, Cole, a defensive stud backup C, and Betances (he will get multi-year offers I think but NY could give him a big one year deal if they wanted under this plan and he could rebuild value and likely get a bigger deal next winter), which would put them roughly around $270M with maybe $70M coming off after 2020. This also all assumes that NY 1) has to actually pay Ellsbury and 2) doesn't trade Happ and his 1/17 to a pitching desperate team, either of those would drop that $270M number decidedly.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Yeah, Strasburg would definitely be great, I just think he'll decide to go elsewhere.

NY needs a sure thing #1 SP, they don't need a guy who slots in anywhere else. They currently have Paxton/Severino/Tanaka/German(after suspension)/Happ, plus Montgomery/Deivi/King/Clarke Schmidt behind them.

If they can add someone who slots in as an ace, it would clearly be a huge addition but for someone to improve NY at all, they need to be an upgrade on Happ at #5 (once German is back). I can hear you reply "sure, but a well-built pitching machine would be an upgrade on Happ", but worth remembering that he was NY's best pitcher down the stretch in 2018 and had a 1.65 ERA this September in 5 starts (27.1 innings). Maybe it took him most of the season to figure out how to adjust to the jumping baseballs, dunno. Keep in mind that 2018's SP whipping boys Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn were both dominant in 2019 after leaving NY, both top 10-15 pitchers in MLB (this is too depressing for me to fact check but I believe it is correct).

Cole is of course a great baseball fit for 30 teams, but for NY, he is a perfect fit for roster reasons too. Tanaka, Paxton and (probably) Happ are all FAs after 2020 and making around $51M combined this season. If NY signed Cole, they would be way better positioned to negotiate with Paxton and/or Tanaka after next season, but even if they both left, NY would still have a top 3 of Cole/Severino/German, the latter two controlled through 2023, and they could let the high ceiling kids fight it out for the other spots.

NY is around $210M now according to Cot's, Gardner will still be signed in the $10M-$12M range (my guess), so a Cole signing would put NY over $248M which would actually give NY a kind of freedom to spend more if they choose on large one year deals, since at that point they will have incurred all possible penalties for the 2020 season and it will just cost them more money. So they could theoretically sign all of Gardner, Cole, a defensive stud backup C, and Betances (he will get multi-year offers I think but NY could give him a big one year deal if they wanted under this plan and he could rebuild value and likely get a bigger deal next winter), which would put them roughly around $270M with maybe $70M coming off after 2020. This also all assumes that NY 1) has to actually pay Ellsbury and 2) doesn't trade Happ and his 1/17 to a pitching desperate team, either of those would drop that $270M number decidedly.
They could go to $270 but I don't think they really need to. Gardner and Betances are luxuries while a defensive stud backup should not be too difficult to find. We all love Gardner but if we are trying to stay under $248, then he is the first I'm comfortable conceding to another team.
 

jon abbey

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I guess what I'm saying is there's not much harm in NY going over $248M for a season, the bottom of their system is already flooded with supertalented teenagers. If they get Cole and have to pay for Ellsbury and don't trade Happ, they'll be close enough to $248M that they will not be able to add any salary all season, and I think it makes more sense to just go for it for a year, in which case as I said above, adding talented backups on one year deals I think makes sense.

And is Gardner a luxury? Who is backing up Tauchman in CF for the first half of the season? Wade? Granite? Bring back Brett (they will).
 

Murderer's Crow

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And is Gardner a luxury? Who is backing up Tauchman in CF for the first half of the season? Wade? Granite? Bring back Brett (they will).
I would say backup outfielders making $10m+ are luxuries. I don't want to put the cart before the horse but we don't really need regular season help, we need postseason help. Wade, Frazier...whoever, can cover for a couple of months.
 

jon abbey

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I think it was already pretty much down to the Angels and Yankees, maybe the Dodgers but I bet too rich for their blood. Agreed though that this seems aimed at making sure no one else jumps in there.
 

jon abbey

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Views from 314 with an interesting piece today about Kyle Higashioka not just being a good pitch framer, but an elite one, which I did not know. So maybe he will make the team after all, but they still need a third string guy with options in AAA.

==================================

The lefthand column below is Higashioka’s Strike Rate, which measures the percentage of non-swings umpires called strikes with Higashioka behind the dish. The parentheses is the number of applicable pitches. The righthand column is the league leader’s figures that year, with the same parentheses. Check it out:

Kyle Higashioka:

2017:
54.5% (178)
2018: 54.1% (640)
2019: 55.1% (474)

League Leader:

2017:
54.3% (2,401)
2018: 55.0% (1,728)
2019: 54.1% (2,680)

In fact, had he qualified for the leaderboard, Higashioka would have been the best pitch framer in the AL in both 2017 and 2019.

In 2019, seventy catchers received at least 2,000 non-strike pitches at Triple-A. Here are Higashioka’s rankings among those in key areas:

  • Called Strikes Above Average: +0.021 (1st)
  • Framing Runs: 15.4 (2nd)
  • Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA): 15.2 (2nd)
  • FRAA_Adjusted: 15.1 (2nd)
https://viewsfrom314ft.com/kyle-higashiokas-elite-pitch-framing-skill-may-make-him-2020-backup/
 

bquine

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If Cole wants a personal catcher a la Maldonado this might work (as would literally signing Maldonado).
 

jon abbey

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It continues to feel like Gardner back to NY is a bit of a formality, waiting on a 40 man spot opening up and/or the Cole situation to resolve, here's a Heyman tweet this afternoon.

"Yankees made another offer to Brett Gardner so the sides continue to talk. Gardy has made clear he prefers to return to them for a 13th season. They love him as well, and with Hicks sidelined to start the year, it’s hard to imagine Gardner and the Yankees not working things out."