What Will Happen With Gerrit Cole This Winter?

How much will Cole sign for this winter?


  • Total voters
    125
  • Poll closed .

jon abbey

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I'm not sure we've ever seen a FA SP as attractive as Gerrit Cole, the first to come to mind is Randy Johnson, who signed with Arizona and proceeded to win the next four NL Cy Young awards, but he was already 35 then. Max Scherzer was a year older when he hit FA and signed for 7/210 with Washington. David Price signed with BOS for 7/217 the next year, those two and Greinke's 6/206 are the biggest three SP contracts in history.

Anyway, those are I think the best comparisons, but I don't think any of those four were as good/young when they hit FA as Cole is right now, I think the bidding for him starts in Scherzer territory with an additional year, so 8/240. I voted for the $250-$300M range, I still think the Angels are the favorites but wow is he going to get paid. I voted 'no' on the second part, I think in an 8 year deal he will put up at least 3-4 spectacular seasons but there will be injuries and lesser performance in there also, and he is going to have such a big deal to live up to.
 

jon abbey

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I didn't know how to make two questions in the same poll, this seemed close enough.
 

DJnVa

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I'd approach question 2 a bit differently. I would assume the signing team understands that when he hits his mid-30s there will be a downturn or an injury, and while they will be paying too much for that season, that's kinda priced into it.
 

RedOctober3829

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I voted under $200 million. His market seems to be limited and free agent contracts have been trending downward the last couple seasons. He's going to be 29 years old next season and has pitched 200-plus innings the last 3 seasons. While he's a great pitcher, I think teams will learn from the past(i.e. David Price) that a long term $200 plus million deals don't age well.
 

Comfortably Lomb

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It’s hard to figure exactly how much he’s going to get, but whoever gives it to him is more likely than not going to regret it. No pitcher should be getting long term guarantees. Heck, no player should. These guys break or decline too often.
 

jon abbey

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I think this is the guy the Yankees have been waiting for.
IMO close to zero chance this will happen, although it depends slightly how the next few weeks play out. Although, thinking about it more, Paxton and Tanaka and Happ's deals are all up after 2020 and I guess NY could go with Cole, Severino, German, Montgomery, and other internal candidates for 2021 and beyond, so maybe it's slightly more possible than I thought when I started writing this.
 

Wingack

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IMO close to zero chance this will happen, although it depends slightly how the next few weeks play out. Although, thinking about it more, Paxton and Tanaka and Happ's deals are all up after 2020 and I guess NY could go with Cole, Severino, German, Montgomery, and other internal candidates for 2021 and beyond, so maybe it's slightly more possible than I thought when I started writing this.
I think they passed on the bats last winter to save it for a true ace.
 

jon abbey

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I think they passed on the bats last winter to save it for a true ace.
Hasn't the 2019 season shown you that they passed on the bats because they weren't worth it given the alternatives?
 

PC Drunken Friar

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I voted 250-300. That is (should be) the going rate for a Cy Young Award winner.candidate for the next 5 years.

I voted Yes because I bet the team that will go after a contract like that will most likely be in contention for the next few years and even a World Series loss would make it worth it.
 

Murderer's Crow

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IMO close to zero chance this will happen, although it depends slightly how the next few weeks play out. Although, thinking about it more, Paxton and Tanaka and Happ's deals are all up after 2020 and I guess NY could go with Cole, Severino, German, Montgomery, and other internal candidates for 2021 and beyond, so maybe it's slightly more possible than I thought when I started writing this.
I mostly disagree and I do think the Yankees will go hard for him. Happ, Tanaka, CC, Gardner, and Ellsbury are all coming off the books between this and next offseason. They can make it work, even with the big arbitration increases.
 

Average Reds

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I voted under $200 million. His market seems to be limited and free agent contracts have been trending downward the last couple seasons. He's going to be 29 years old next season and has pitched 200-plus innings the last 3 seasons. While he's a great pitcher, I think teams will learn from the past(i.e. David Price) that a long term $200 plus million deals don't age well.
Yeah, I think the days of 7 year pitching deals are gone.

I’m thinking he’ll get 5/160- 170.
 

E5 Yaz

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$250M-$300M, because the teams who would be at the front of the line to sign him also have money and the space to sign him

No, because no team at the end of these contracts is happy with them
 

jon abbey

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No, because no team at the end of these contracts is happy with them
The Nats are happy with the Scherzer deal, and ARI must be kind of thrilled with the Greinke one, as they spun a FA signing into 4 good prospects.
 

E5 Yaz

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The Nats are happy with the Scherzer deal, and ARI must be kind of thrilled with the Greinke one, as they spun a FA signing into 4 good prospects.
Scherzer's deal isn't at the end, and Arizona was happy to shed Greinke's contract
 

moondog80

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I voted under $200 million. His market seems to be limited and free agent contracts have been trending downward the last couple seasons. He's going to be 29 years old next season and has pitched 200-plus innings the last 3 seasons. While he's a great pitcher, I think teams will learn from the past(i.e. David Price) that a long term $200 plus million deals don't age well.
Teams don't learn lessons, not all 30 of them anyway. He's a year younger than Price was, and better. He's not getting less than Price.
 

jon abbey

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Scherzer's deal isn't at the end, and Arizona was happy to shed Greinke's contract
5 of 7 years done on the Scherzer deal, I think if he didn't throw another pitch for them the next two years, they'd still be pretty happy with that deal, but we'll see.

As for Greinke, they were happy to get his money off the books but pretty reluctant to move him until they got a package they couldn't resist, very good article about it here:

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/10/01/houston-astros-zack-greinke-world-series
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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I took the under 200, just because I dont think the length will be long enough to push 200+
 

sean1562

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If Corbin was able to get 6 just last year, there is no way Cole doesn’t get at least a 6 year deal. Some team desperate to make a splash in free agency will sign him to a 7 year contract

And the teams that have been hesitant are the ones that don’t end up with the free agents. Manny got 10, Harper got 13, Corbin got 6. Contract length is hugely important to these free agent players.
 

BoSox Rule

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They seemingly have been more hesitant to give huge long term deals to free agents the last 2 years.
Elite FA get money years. Just because teams are smarter about players like Moustakas and Keuchel and Kimbrel doesn’t mean they aren’t paying Harper and Machado and Cole. He’s going to get at least what Scherzer got probably a lot more since it’s been a few years. I’ll say about $238m over 7 and a ton of deferrals and one or two opt outs.
 

DeadlySplitter

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my bold prediction: the Angels are going to be stupid and offer 8 years, over 300M. then be unhappy.
 

IpswichSox

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If Cole isn't coming to Boston (which he's not), I do hope he goes to the Angels. It's a shame that one of the best players in the history of the game isn't on a team that plays meaningful games, much less postseason games. Cole could help to change that.
 

McBride11

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If Cole isn't coming to Boston (which he's not), I do hope he goes to the Angels. It's a shame that one of the best players in the history of the game isn't on a team that plays meaningful games, much less postseason games. Cole could help to change that.
It would be great if Ohtani got some more TV time!

In this day and age it seems like AAV is a better way to manage a contract. You dont want that 35+ declining player.

For example, give him 5 / 175 (35 aav) vs 7 / 210 (30 aav). I get this is a hard sell to a player, but in 2 less years he makes 25m more in that time frame, and that money has value now.

i doubt it will happen and he is probably looking at 230-250 total.
 

Plantiers Wart

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$250. To the Yankees who are desperate for starters and are about to get bounced from the playoffs again shy of a WS title. The fact the Angels are a bidder will drive up the dollars. The fact that Cole was a huge MFY fan growing up will decide it. Plus the dollars.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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$250. To the Yankees who are desperate for starters and are about to get bounced from the playoffs again shy of a WS title. The fact the Angels are a bidder will drive up the dollars. The fact that Cole was a huge MFY fan growing up will decide it. Plus the dollars.
This is sadly true. The reality of the situation is that the MFY's need Cole. They'll get Cole. Angels will be the winners of the Rick Porcello Sweepstakes.
 

StuckOnYouk

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If I'm reading Cots correctly, NYY has about 36 million to play with for being under the threshhold while the Angels have about 80 million. If that's the case, the Angels really need to just give Cole a blank check. At some point they have to put an Ace with Trout.
 

HriniakPosterChild

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If I'm reading Cots correctly, NYY has about 36 million to play with for being under the threshhold while the Angels have about 80 million. If that's the case, the Angels really need to just give Cole a blank check. At some point they have to put an Ace with Trout.
Isn’t that why Mr. Ohtani is on the roster?

(Granted, teams can have more than one ace. There’s no rule against that.)
 

jon abbey

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It's worth watching as he starts again tomorrow in the biggest game of his life to date that he may be tiring out slightly as his innings count rises, he is at 242 now, which is the most anyone has had in years (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/IP_leagues.shtml), the swing and miss percentage against him has gone down in each of his four playoff starts so far. He certainly could make me look dumb tomorrow with another 14 K game, but worth keeping an eye on.

Also he has never thrown on 3 days rest, nice if your #1 guy can do this when desperate in the postseason. Few aces can, I believe Halladay never did and Verlander never did until this year and he got smoked, just mentioning.

Joel Sherman guessing 7/252 today in the NYP, a whopping $36M AAV.

https://nypost.com/2019/10/26/gerrit-cole-led-free-agency-creates-wild-guessing-game/
 

BoSox Rule

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It's worth watching as he starts again tomorrow in the biggest game of his life to date that he may be tiring out slightly as his innings count rises, he is at 242 now, which is the most anyone has had in years (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/IP_leagues.shtml), the swing and miss percentage against him has gone down in each of his four playoff starts so far. He certainly could make me look dumb tomorrow with another 14 K game, but worth keeping an eye on.https://nypost.com/2019/10/26/gerrit-cole-led-free-agency-creates-wild-guessing-game/
Coles 242 obviously include postseason. Those leader lists do not. 240+including postseason happens about once a year https://blogs.fangraphs.com/justin-verlanders-innings-could-fill-a-boat/
 

sean1562

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probably woke up and realized he was being a huge asshole. losing in that fashion has to be really rough
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

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I'm going to root for the Angels to get him. A) because it's out of our division, and B) because it would be nice to see Trout get some help.
Same line of thinking for me. After the Sox games end, I watch a good amount of Angels games just so I can see Trout play. It would be nice to have them be relevant at some point.
 

jon abbey

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BaseballJones

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Usually when the Yankees want a player and are willing to commit whatever resources it takes to get him....they end up with him. I'll be very surprised if they don't land Cole. If they don't, however, they'll almost certainly do whatever it takes to get Strasburg, presuming he hasn't signed first.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Feels like the CC Sabathia signing a decade ago. Cole is a mortal lock to end up in NY if they outbid everyone. Otherwise, he's probably going to land on the west coast.
 

chawson

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Usually when the Yankees want a player and are willing to commit whatever resources it takes to get him....they end up with him. I'll be very surprised if they don't land Cole. If they don't, however, they'll almost certainly do whatever it takes to get Strasburg, presuming he hasn't signed first.
I’d suggest Ohtani as a counterexample, but it’s they didn’t have the luxury to outspend the field there.

Right now, I’m crossing my fingers that Cole’s wife — who is Brandon Crawford’s sister — might want to stay in Southern California.
 

jon abbey

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Well, it's pretty clear that under $200M and $200-250M aren't happening, just a question of whether it will be $250M-$300M or over $300M.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I think it's coming down to a bidding war between the Yanks and the Angels, and that it will end up being at least 8 years and $288 - 300m (36-37.5 AAV). If either is willing to go to 9 years (and about 325), that might clinch it.