Recent content by Rice4HOF

  1. Rice4HOF

    Grading the Umps - March/April

    I agree on both the difficulty of the person estimating and the technical challenges with the automated technology. And you've stumbled upon one of the issues with the electronic means. The strike zone in the rulebook is defined as a 3D shape and if any part of the ball touches any part of...
  2. Rice4HOF

    Grading the Umps - March/April

    It looks good, and I'm the first person to defend umpires when it looks like they screwed up, but I'll go the other way here too. The box that Ump Scorecards uses is NOT that accurate to begin with. So measuring someone's accuracy vs a non-accurate box doesn't give you a lot of useful...
  3. Rice4HOF

    What Was The Red Sox Starting Lineup For Your First Home Opener in Person?

    Roger Clemens. Not in the lineup.
  4. Rice4HOF

    What Was The Red Sox Starting Lineup For Your First Home Opener in Person?

    I got to see a Championship banner get raised, and had a tie game heading into the 9th, so was looking forward to seeing a walk-off. Alas, it did not happen 2014 Box Score vs Brewers How was this the lineup of a defending Championship team?
  5. Rice4HOF

    A’s have signed a binding agreement to purchase land for a future ballpark in Las Vegas.

    Waiting for a team to move to Calgary and play in the suburbs.... Yes, that is the real name
  6. Rice4HOF

    Pssssssssssst 2024

    Mets are trying to lose a game they led going into the 8th AND get no-hit on the same day. Edit: a combined no-hitter. Manning was removed with 2 outs in 6th.
  7. Rice4HOF

    Everybody hurts sometimes: The latest injuries

    Just note that given those numbers, the probability of the 100 win team sweeping a 3 game series is still less than 50% (0.78^3).
  8. Rice4HOF

    Pssssssssssst 2024

    He only walked George Springer…. To lead off the game and again with 2 outs in the 9th.
  9. Rice4HOF

    Pssssssssssst 2024

    No hitter completed! George Springer walks with 2 outs in the 9th and Vladdy Jr. makes the last out.
  10. Rice4HOF

    Pssssssssssst 2024

    Astros leading the Blue Jays 10-0 heading into 8th. Ronel Blanco gave up a walk to start the game but has been pretty, pretty good since.
  11. Rice4HOF

    March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    This is a good point. But it has to be a pre-planned play. "Hey, if the 3B isn't holding me on I'm going to come like 89 feet down the line, but don't worry bro, I'm not going to actually steal". If they have this play in their arsenal, then it's on Casas to know about it, and then he is fully...
  12. Rice4HOF

    March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    NO! You need to be aware if there's a possibility of the runner attempting a steal of home. If you're fully concentrating on the pitcher, you might swing the bat and send Duran's head rolling into centerfield.
  13. Rice4HOF

    Agents of KAOS: Rafaela, Duran, and O'Neill

    The problem with Duran potentially stealing home, is that you can't do it with 2 outs and 2 strikes on the batter. The batter has no choice but to take a pitch, and if it's a strike, the inning is over and run doesn't count. If he was going to do it, he should have done it on a previous pitch.
  14. Rice4HOF

    How good are Fangraphs Predictions (2023 Edition)

    Thanks. I meant R squared for the methodology where you just pick everyone to win 81 games. My possibly flawed analysis showed that one had a value of 0.00, so fangraphs was at least slightly better.
  15. Rice4HOF

    How good are Fangraphs Predictions (2023 Edition)

    An average miss by 9 games is quite bad. If you had just picked every team to go 81-81, your average miss would be 10, so Fangraphs was barely better than having someone who knows absolutely nothing about baseball do the forecast. I'll run an R2 analyzes soon.
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