Recent content by PrometheusWakefield

  1. PrometheusWakefield

    who would win between the

    I have complete confidence that the 1918 Red Sox would get destroyed by any modern baseball team, even the 1988 Orioles. I also think that if you put Babe Ruth in a time machine from 1920 and brought him to 2020 he'd have a hard time cracking a major league roster. That may seem obvious but I...
  2. PrometheusWakefield

    David Ortiz on the mend: shooting and recovery

    It's a fucking hit. There's no attempt to get any kind of money out of this. There's no question (imo, at least from that angle) that the shooter is looking right at David Ortiz and is targeting that guy specifically. Crazy to picture who thinks it's a good move to try to shoot David Ortiz...
  3. PrometheusWakefield

    David Ortiz on the mend: shooting and recovery

    It sounds like something people usually survive, but the word "clinic", as opposed to "hospital", has me very nervous.
  4. PrometheusWakefield

    Rosenthal: Sale extension 5 years, $145 million

    It's funny that we all take it for granted that NBA and NFL players will think like this but in MLB we assume everybody is out for themselves.
  5. PrometheusWakefield

    Let's Talk Exten$ions...

    Whoa, ok that's a big change. That takes expected WAR for the life of the contract up to 78.3, which means $ per WAR goes down to $5.5m. That would price Mookie's 54 WAR at 10/$297. Very good deal for the Angels.
  6. PrometheusWakefield

    Let's Talk Exten$ions...

    So that's an extension, meaning the new contract starts in 2021 and goes until 2032 (yikes!). Steamer projections (again declining .5 WAR for every year after 29) for Trout are 67.8 WAR during that period, which means $430m is $6.34m per WAR. Based on Mookie's 54 WAR over 10 years that would...
  7. PrometheusWakefield

    Let's Talk Exten$ions...

    Nice piece in the Globe today about Chris Sale that suggests he is the kind of player who values security over getting the last dollar, a good sign for a possible extension. Obviously it seems to me the question for the Sox is whether it makes sense to think about an extension now, or see how...
  8. PrometheusWakefield

    Peter Gammons on the Red Sox hitting philosophy

    Dalbec doesn't make Gallo look like Ichiro, Dalbec just looks like Gallo. When Gallo first got to AA, he struck out 39.5% of the time; Dalbec struck out 37.1% of the time in his first taste of AA. Gallo was 2 years younger at the time, still, Gallo proves that you can be a quality major league...
  9. PrometheusWakefield

    Let's Talk Exten$ions...

    At 34.1 WAR over the course of the contract, Arenado is closer to my WAR estimates for Sale (31.5 over 6 years) than Mookie (54 WAR over 10). It looks like the Rockies are paying $7.5 million per estimated WAR (of course, given that it's the Rockies they could also be factoring in his...
  10. PrometheusWakefield

    Let's Talk Exten$ions...

    Starting from Steamer estimates of projected WAR in 2019 (JBJ 2.6, Hicks 3.3) and declining 0.5 WAR every year for their 30s, I have Hicks being worth 12.6 wins over the course of the contract against 5.5 wins for JBJ. So a pretty big difference in value. Also Hicks was a FA after 2019, JBJ...
  11. PrometheusWakefield

    Let's Talk Exten$ions...

    So thinking about what this means for my goal of keeping as many guys as possible. Lets say after this year we sign Sale at 6/$240 ($40m AAV) and Bogaerts at 7/189 ($27m AAV), let Porcello walks and JDM declines the opt-out. That would put us at $158m committed for 7 players. Then lets give...
  12. PrometheusWakefield

    Let's Talk Exten$ions...

    OK, what the hell, lets do everybody else the same way. I used Steamer projections for next year as a baseline, assumed steady state through age 29 and then 0.5 WAR/year decline after that. I then multiplied by Fangraph's estimate of $7.9m/win, and then also took a look at the $6.85m/win...
  13. PrometheusWakefield

    Let's Talk Exten$ions...

    Way more than any of those. Andrus extension was unique and 4 years ago, Lindor and Gregorius aren't FAs, Crawford is not as good a player and way older when he signed in 2016. If Bogaerts was a FA this year, his 4.9 WAR would have ranked third among FAs behind Machado and Corbin, which...
  14. PrometheusWakefield

    How much will Pedroia contribute in 2019?

    It would be a much better plan if the team found a way to cut bait on Nunez and find a better version of him. Nunez does not really have the skills to serve an important role and we'd be better off giving his spot to someone else, even Lin.
  15. PrometheusWakefield

    2018-19 Offseason Thread

    I'm a NO on Eovaldi. Not a no at any price obviously. But a no at the price he's likely to get - Fangraphs suggests 3 years $54M to $60M. At that price he's too much of a risk. Eovaldi has never shown consistency at the major league level. He gives up too many home runs. And he's only thrown...