Recent content by Pedroia's Itchy Nose

  1. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Pittsgburgh 4/21, the Nod Goes to Winck

    4 runs in 5 innings from a lineup with 5 guys OPS'ing under .510 is some kind of miracle
  2. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Pittsgburgh 4/21, the Nod Goes to Winck

    BABIP taketh away, but also giveth
  3. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen

    Just want to add a bit to this discussion -- the defense may or may not be baked into the ERA. Defense should have some impact, of course, but as you've noted in your follow-up hit sequencing does as well, as does BABIP which is more controllable by pitchers but still random. While BOS has a...
  4. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    4/17 vs Guardians

    Every single K was swinging.
  5. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    4/17 vs Guardians

    Houck is making them look like absolute dunces
  6. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    4/17 vs Guardians

    and it sure looked like his toe clipped the bag on the replay.
  7. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    That's not an unreasonable guess but it really depends on what happens over the next 6 years. If he puts up enough WAR over the next 6 years to give him a likely arb earnings of 37.5mm total, then he just needs like 1.5 wins total in the following years. If his arb totals would hit something...
  8. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    I don't think that it quite makes sense to think about it that way as Ceddanne is not a free agent, so the whole $8m per WAR rule doesn't apply. The value of this contract can only really be evaluated in comparison to what the arbitration process would have looked like. In six years we will...
  9. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Roki Sasaki MLB watch -- 2025 probably?

    I apologize if this has been covered elsewhere, but would it be legal for a team to offer a substantial charitable contribution in a player's name as part of a signing package, or does this come too close to compensation? For example, if Sasaki was posted this offseason and was limited to the...
  10. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    Clearly true, but at least after this series one doesn't have to squint to see how this team could make a legitimate playoff push if things do go right. I still think it's way more likely that they end up on the outside looking in, but despite the lack of FA signings I'm more optimistic now than...
  11. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    3.31 - Easter Funday

    I absolutely can't complain about a strong split on a West Coast road trip against a legit playoff contender. Looooong way to go, but the pitching results seem more meaningful in the context of the excellent Spring.
  12. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    Sox starters through 4 games this year: 22 IP 14 H 4 ER 27 K 1 BB .68 WHIP 1.64 ERA 11 K/9 Sox starters through 4 games last year: 15.1 IP 26 H 22 ER 21 K 9 BB 2.28 WHIP 12.92 ERA 12.33 K/9 Other than the strikeouts it's a night and day difference. Tiny sample size, of course, but it's clear...
  13. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    I agree with the general sentiment here, and I hope that those of you who are feeling excited for the youth movement will keep that perspective if and when some of these guys go through rough stretches. There are likely going to be times where these guys are hard to watch, but if we want to see...
  14. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Remaining Free Agent Speculation and Signings (Trades, too)

    While I'm sure that there is some disincentive for pitchers to come to a hitter friendly park on a pillow contract, I think it's probably less than one might think. Undoubtedly FO's are using park adjusted metrics when evaluating talent, and I'd bet that the agents are well aware of this.
  15. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Remaining Free Agent Speculation and Signings (Trades, too)

    Yeah, I really don't get the folks that are arguing that Montgomery is average-ish. He had an ERA+ of 139 and an ERA- of 74 last year. His ERA- is 7th in all of baseball among qualified pitchers and 13th among all pitchers with at least 100 innings. By FIP- he is 14th/17th. Considering "average...
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