Recent content by CSteinhardt

  1. CSteinhardt

    Do pitchers actually want to aim for a donut hole?

    That's a good question. In many ways it should be similar to Stuff+, since it's working similarly. Or, I guess to be more specific, it should be similar to Pitching+, since that combines both Stuff+ and Location+. However, because I did this independently, there are going to be several...
  2. CSteinhardt

    Do pitchers actually want to aim for a donut hole?

    Thanks for sharing that. It's interesting that it seems to have sped up a bit recently. This makes a lot of sense if the primary reason is pitcher fatigue, since pitchers are now tiring a bit earlier than in earlier eras. But if my pitch score metric is correct in suggesting that the main...
  3. CSteinhardt

    Do pitchers actually want to aim for a donut hole?

    Not sure how much interest there is, but thought I'd share another conclusion I was drawing from playing around with this. Please feel free to let me know if I should move this somewhere else / take to another board. I was looking at an effect which has been known for a couple of decades...
  4. CSteinhardt

    Do pitchers actually want to aim for a donut hole?

    I've been playing around with some of the statcast data and trying to figure out how well we can predict the success of a pitch from the tracking data alone. More broadly, the idea behind FIP was to recognize that pitchers do not control the defenses behind them, so that any attempt to measure...
  5. CSteinhardt

    Is It Over Now? Chiefs/Niners SB Thread

    Under these rules, isn't the best strategy to try an onside kick? If you get it, the other team had their opportunity to possess the ball, and otherwise you have to defend a short field but still get a chance to respond on the second possession.
  6. CSteinhardt

    The Red Sox Payroll Poll

    I think "No/Yes" is probably the closest to where I'd be. The answer to the first seems clearly to be no. For the second, I'd be much happier with a competitive 2024 team, and I would be upset if they did long-term damage to add a bit of payroll. But there are always ways to improve the...
  7. CSteinhardt

    This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

    I think it's pretty clear that he's still an elite head coach. What I'd want to see if I were a Patriots fan is a way to keep him as head coach but have somebody else as GM.
  8. CSteinhardt

    CFB 2023 Bowls & Championships: The *best* gosh darn thread a television executive could ask for

    Only one left, so they'd just kneel.
  9. CSteinhardt

    5/27 - Weekend At Bernie's

    If they could rebound, there wouldn't be a game 7.
  10. CSteinhardt

    Pats Round 2 Pick #46: DE Keion "Let's Party" White

    I think the difference is that apart from the very top talents who could play earlier but are forced to wait a couple of years, players will declare for the draft not at fixed age or fixed place in their development curve, but at a fixed skill level -- when they first reach a high enough level...
  11. CSteinhardt

    Poll: Rate Your Faith in the Red Sox Front Office

    Mookie's had a very strong first two years. But I don't think you would want to pay him $304M/10 starting in 2023. Even with those great first two years, it's already a bad contract, just not as bad at it would have been if he didn't have two excellent years. If you were running the Sox...
  12. CSteinhardt

    Poll: Rate Your Faith in the Red Sox Front Office

    This is essentially exactly why I support what Bloom is doing. The value of stars on the open market is that they receive contracts essentially guaranteed to be albatrosses. There was no way to re-sign Xander without a contract in the range of what he actually got, and that contract will...
  13. CSteinhardt

    The Nepo Shuffle -- The 2021 World Chess Championship

    Catching online cheaters is usually easy because online cheaters generally aren't very good. If I simply replace myself with an engine, it's not going to look very human. And most online cheaters aren't very good players, so that's the only option they have. But a clever cheater is much...
  14. CSteinhardt

    The Nepo Shuffle -- The 2021 World Chess Championship

    The problem is that proving cheating in chess is essentially impossible. Rausis was essentially known to be cheating for a couple of years before he was finally caught. A consequence of the computers being so much stronger than the humans is that you don't even need to enlist an expert to...
  15. CSteinhardt

    Sox acquire Eric Hosmer

    Agreed - this doesn't have to be part of a larger plan. It's adding assets to the team, and any time you can do that essentially for free, you do so because those assets will be useful later. Hosmer's not a great asset, so this isn't the sort of move you build a plan around, but it's the sort...
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