Fix 2023 By Trade

TomRicardo

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The only trade needed is the Chicken Littles in this community need to trade their panic for some patience. It's a long season---and it's not over just because the Sox ran into a buzzsaw of a team in the midst of a historic start. Can we at least wait until the team has gotten through the first month of play before declaring the season a disaster?
Nice try John Henry.

Look they went garbage picking looking for some assets and paid Jensen for unknown reasons.

Really anyone besides Devers, Yoshida, Whitlock, Casas, and Story should be available come July if anyone wants them. Pivetta, Houck, and Verdugo I would probably hold on to as well unless someone woke up drunk and offered serious prospects. Everything else is Pre-Arb with options or gone after 2024.

That said outside of Jensen and Duvall if he gets healthy, I don't see many guys eliciting offers. Maybe if Sale can go on a ten game stretch you could dump him (and you should dump the moment you can). You got to hope they can get rid of some people because outside of spending 45 million a year on Ohtani (yes they should offer the man 360/8) this team is going to suck next year as well.

I can't remember a Red Sox team so deplete of talent, that said I can't remember a Red Sox team with so little money under contract two years from now. I would imagine the clear goal is to clear more payroll.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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We know Hamilton can swipe bags, how does his defense play. He seems to be off to a better start than higher rated prospects but too sss. Alarming to me that Casas did not hit in September or this April. Is he Bibby D with less K's?
Casas may not have hit for average but he was plenty productive last September. He had a .358 OBP and a 112 OPS+ which is just fine. The problem this season thus far is he's not walking as much and he's gotten atrocious BABIP luck (.120 so far). Given the small sample size we're talking about, it's waaaaaaaaay too early to draw any conclusions.

As for comparisons to Dalbec, Casas outperformed Dalbec at every level on his way up. Stands to reason he will do the same in the big leagues.
 

Benj4ever

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How about rushing to judgement after getting swept by the PirAAAtes then?

Bloom is not going to last two years.

He might get canned before the end of this season the way things are going.

I'm all on on what @canderson said, he's not known as Mr Brightside for nothing.
Pittsburgh is 8-5 right now. So, if we are going to rush to judgment, then they're a playoff team, not AAA.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Obviously the luxury tax is a complicating factor but I really hope they aren't opposed to trading away prospects for talent at some point in the near future. I'm sure the idea will be anathema to Bloom. I tend to be a prospect-booster or at least follow them closer than the average person, but all that means is I know how likely any or all of the following will be in the coming years:
  • Rafaela is an elite defensive CF who can't lay off MLB-level stuff and is essentially JBJ with speed. Not bad but not a game changer.
  • All of the fringy high minors guys (Walter, Murphy, Mata) amount to OK bullpen/long-relief types
  • Blaze Jordan is Dalbec 2.0
  • Mayer becomes merely good but not elite
And so on. Now, I don't think all of these guys should be trade fodder but the value trades from our 10-40 depth (which is solid, to be fair, if unspectacular) will only get us so far. And these guys depreciate FAST. Hell, the Twins would laugh in Bloom's face if he offered Valdez/Abreu for Vazquez without a significant + attached. Gilberto Jimenez (peaked at #4 in SP rankings) is now basically a non-prospect at 22.

They probably are going to need at least 2 new legit starting pitchers coming from somewhere if they really want to really compete moving forward and I'll eat my hat if they come from the Walter/Murphy types.

I do feel for Chaim—not being able to start with a relatively clear deck was not optimal for the way I think he wants to manage a team, I think. Hard to be aggressive with ownership wanting you under the tax while being saddled with an immovable and simultaneously borderline unplayable long-term contract like Sale.

TRic is right, the talent is not just mediocre but largely without hope for significant improvement outside of a few guys, mostly because the dumpster diving has involved picking up old guys on short money instead of trying to catch lightning in a bottle with untapped upside.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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TRic is right, the talent is not just mediocre but largely without hope for significant improvement outside of a few guys, mostly because the dumpster diving has involved picking up old guys on short money instead of trying to catch lightning in a bottle with untapped upside.
I'd argue Bloom has taken the "catch lightning in a bottle" approach much more than the "old guys on short money" approach. Wasn't Hunter Renfroe a lightning in a bottle signing that paid off? Granted, Bloom then tried to sell high on him but I don't think he's the guy you keep long term anyway (there has to be something to his being with five teams in five years).

Others you can make a case for or are clearly lighting in a bottle guys (varying degrees of success) include Jose Peraza, Christian Arroyo, Kike Hernandez, Reese McGuire, Rob Refsnyder, Franchy Cordero, Martin Perez, Matt Strahm, Hansel Robles, John Schreiber, Michael Wacha. All guys 30 and under when they signed for relatively cheap money. Half the pitchers they rolled out during the COVID shortened 2020 season qualify, though only one really turned into anything and he did that in Tampa (Springs). They can't all be David Ortiz (the ultimate lightning in a bottle cast-off signing).
 

YTF

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I think it’s really challenging for the Sox to pull off an impact trade because they are really counting on all their prospects to contribute. Like, if they had a stud prospect at LF or 3B they could probably move those guys since they are locked up there for a while. But to move a potential SP and CF for 1-2 years of a SS just creates two holes while filling one. Now, if they don’t think much of the guys they are trading, that’s one thing.
Yep and this is exactly why none of those guys were moved in the off season.
 

BaseballJones

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Trade our roster for the Ray's roster.
If the Sox did that, Chris Sale would immediately revert to his old dominant self, Pivetta would win 20 games, and every reliever would be lights out. While Jeffrey Springs would go back to being a pitcher with an era over 7 like he was with the Sox the first time.
 

Benj4ever

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Obviously the luxury tax is a complicating factor but I really hope they aren't opposed to trading away prospects for talent at some point in the near future. I'm sure the idea will be anathema to Bloom. I tend to be a prospect-booster or at least follow them closer than the average person, but all that means is I know how likely any or all of the following will be in the coming years:
  • Rafaela is an elite defensive CF who can't lay off MLB-level stuff and is essentially JBJ with speed. Not bad but not a game changer.
  • All of the fringy high minors guys (Walter, Murphy, Mata) amount to OK bullpen/long-relief types
  • Blaze Jordan is Dalbec 2.0
  • Mayer becomes merely good but not elite
And so on. Now, I don't think all of these guys should be trade fodder but the value trades from our 10-40 depth (which is solid, to be fair, if unspectacular) will only get us so far. And these guys depreciate FAST. Hell, the Twins would laugh in Bloom's face if he offered Valdez/Abreu for Vazquez without a significant + attached. Gilberto Jimenez (peaked at #4 in SP rankings) is now basically a non-prospect at 22.

They probably are going to need at least 2 new legit starting pitchers coming from somewhere if they really want to really compete moving forward and I'll eat my hat if they come from the Walter/Murphy types.

I do feel for Chaim—not being able to start with a relatively clear deck was not optimal for the way I think he wants to manage a team, I think. Hard to be aggressive with ownership wanting you under the tax while being saddled with an immovable and simultaneously borderline unplayable long-term contract like Sale.

TRic is right, the talent is not just mediocre but largely without hope for significant improvement outside of a few guys, mostly because the dumpster diving has involved picking up old guys on short money instead of trying to catch lightning in a bottle with untapped upside.
This is classic "I can beat the market" thinking. Other teams have scouts who watch minor league games and relay the information they have to their bosses. So, if it's true that Rafaela is what you say he is, other teams will know that before making a trade for him, and so forth. Guys fall from prospect to non-prospect status because they're not good enough to make it in the pro's.

The point is, if you "know" that these guys aren't good enough, then the market knows it too, and it won't give up much for them. But since neither you nor the market has perfect information (neither of you can see the future), every once in a while mistakes will be made, and the outcome is really good (or bad) trades. That's how a travesty like Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson happens. So, while you may be right on occasion, you'll probably be wrong much more often, because, in general, the market has better information than you do. That's why it's so difficult to beat Vegas.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I'd argue Bloom has taken the "catch lightning in a bottle" approach much more than the "old guys on short money" approach? Wasn't Hunter Renfroe a lightning in a bottle signing that paid off? Granted, Bloom then tried to sell high on him but I don't think he's the guy you keep long term anyway (there has to be something to his being with five teams in five years).

Others you can make a case for or are clearly lighting in a bottle guys (varying degrees of success) include Jose Peraza, Christian Arroyo, Kike Hernandez, Reese McGuire, Rob Refsnyder, Franchy Cordero, Martin Perez, Matt Strahm, Hansel Robles, John Schreiber, Michael Wacha. All guys 30 and under when they signed for relatively cheap money. Half the pitchers they rolled out during the COVID shortened 2020 season qualify, though only one really turned into anything and he did that in Tampa (Springs). They can't all be David Ortiz (the ultimate lightning in a bottle cast-off signing).
I think we're in agreement but I'd quibble with some of the names. To put a finer point on my post, it's not so much that we aren't trying to catch lightning as it is that we're spending a TON of money on the old guys. Over the next two years, if my math is correct, we'll pay over $100 million to players 34 and over (all the guys on the list are 35+ except Paxton who will probably throw <30 innings if I had to guess), and that is only counting recent short-term commitments, i.e. not Sale. What's the point of this if they entered the season still needing guys like Casas and Bello to be instant ++ contributors IF all the old guys played up to their past numbers?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I think the problem is that the team’s success is reliant on catching lightning in a bottle multiple times, simultaneously. And because most of these guys are signing short term deals, they are losing the good ones after a year or so and have to try to catch more lightning. And the ceiling on most of these guys seems pretty low, which is more of a challenge now that they’ve lost some of their higher win players.

Sure, we are going to have a few winners but we are buying a lot of lottery tickets.
 

rodderick

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If the Sox did that, Chris Sale would immediately revert to his old dominant self, Pivetta would win 20 games, and every reliever would be lights out. While Jeffrey Springs would go back to being a pitcher with an era over 7 like he was with the Sox the first time.
This is honestly my biggest disappointment in Bloom. A huge part of the Rays' success has been pitcher acquisitions and development. Have the Red Sox made any strides in that regard? I guess Whitlock was a success story but now there are serious questions over his viability as a starter. Not enough hits in the draft or via veteran reclamation projects/diamonds in the rough.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I think we're in agreement but I'd quibble with some of the names. To put a finer point on my post, it's not so much that we aren't trying to catch lightning as it is that we're spending a TON of money on the old guys. Over the next two years, if my math is correct, we'll pay over $100 million to players 34 and over (all the guys on the list are 35+ except Paxton who will probably throw <30 innings if I had to guess), and that is only counting recent short-term commitments, i.e. not Sale. What's the point of this if they entered the season still needing guys like Casas and Bello to be instant ++ contributors IF all the old guys played up to their past numbers?
The simplest answer might be that the older guys are more plentiful on the market than younger guys. Basically, if it wasn't the older guys they signed, it would probably have been some other older guys. Or they're committing more dollars and more years to guys a few years younger who don't really carry any more of a guarantee of strong performance.

Is the marginal improvement of, say, re-signing Nate Eovaldi instead of Corey Kluber worth committing the extra year and ~$24M it would cost? That's the equation Bloom is working with. I think if it's a matter of turning an 88 win team into a 90 win team, maybe you pull the trigger. But if makes a 79 win team an 81 win team, is it worth it?
 

richgedman'sghost

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Yes, I don’t get the chicken little stuff. The burden of proof is on Chaim, not the posters who have a negative opinion of this team based on pretty objective analysis of the roster’s talent and who correctly analyzed this team last year and so far this year.

Chris Sale has averaged 4 IP per start and has looked pretty awful doing it. Kluber looks like he’s teeing up on 17. Pivetta has looked solid so far but hasn’t gotten into the 6th inning in either start. Whitlock just gave up 5 ER in 5 IP and hasn’t been an effective SP for months. Houck has had 2 solid starts but, like Pivetta, has been a 5 IP SP. Bello is hopefully coming back in a few days and represents the only SP who this team can really dream on unless you think Houck/Whitlock are going to remain in that role and will unlock potential that allows them to go deeper in games. This team’s starting rotation just doesn’t have it if this is the Sale we’re going to get going forward.

The bullpen is improved but is going to wear out due to the aforementioned SP issues. But they’re the least of my worries.

As for the offense? Yuck. They have one elite player in Devers. Casas is hitting .143. Turner might be showing his age although he at least should be able to get on base. Verdugo and Yoshida won’t offer much in the power department. Kike has never been a very good hitter outside of that insane postseason run and looks pretty damn bad at the plate. Story and Mondesi aren’t coming back any time soon and who knows what we’ll get from them when they do. Mondesi hasn’t had an OBP over .300 since 2018. The rest of the hitters aren’t even worth talking about.

But, ok, this is MLB and maybe some impactful prospects will come up except…there aren’t any. Rafaela is in AA and scuffling so far. His plate discipline isn’t good and may never be good. He’d help defensively but that’s about it. There isn’t anyone else who is even remotely close to helping. The most exciting prospects are in A+/A ball, respectively, so we’re looking at 2025 arrivals, at the earliest for them.

I will never fault anyone for seeing the positives in this situation but I am, quite frankly, unable to see many. I just don’t see enough of a cavalry coming to be able to dig this team out of what could be a pretty sizable hole. Chaim has really failed this team. I had high hopes for him but he just hasn’t delivered an exciting product at all.
How bout Maguire at catcher? It's still a small sample size but since coming over from the White Sox has shown some pop. That trade despite what the JMOH says looks to be a clear win for Bloom. Yoshida looks like he could be good based on his play in the WBC, assuming he can stay healthy. It is still way to early to write off Casas or Bello as some people on this board are trying to do. Verdugo has improved each and every year of his career. I just think it is too early to completely write off this team before May has even begun.
 

chrisfont9

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The simplest answer might be that the older guys are more plentiful on the market than younger guys. Basically, if it wasn't the older guys they signed, it would probably have been some other older guys. Or they're committing more dollars and more years to guys a few years younger who don't really carry any more of a guarantee of strong performance.

Is the marginal improvement of, say, re-signing Nate Eovaldi instead of Corey Kluber worth committing the extra year and ~$24M it would cost? That's the equation Bloom is working with. I think if it's a matter of turning an 88 win team into a 90 win team, maybe you pull the trigger. But if makes a 79 win team an 81 win team, is it worth it?
Yeah, the years are the real clue. None of the old guys go past 2024. They are literally placeholders.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Yeah, the years are the real clue. None of the old guys go past 2024. They are literally placeholders.
Almost everyone on the team is a placeholder, though. They’ve got like two guys with obligations that go beyond 2024. Not necessarily a bad thing, of course.
 

curly2

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Verdugo has improved each and every year of his career.
3.0 bWAR in 106 games with the Dodgers in 2019: Very good.
2.1 bWAR in 53 games with the Sox in 2020: Outstanding in the COVID-shortened season.
2.3 bWAR in 146 games in 2021. Good, but definitely regression.
1.1 bWAR in 152 games with the Sox in 2022. Big regression.
 

chrisfont9

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Almost everyone on the team is a placeholder, though. They’ve got like two guys with obligations that go beyond 2024. Not necessarily a bad thing, of course.
Yeah, the Sox should be players in the next couple offseasons. I hope Otani goes to free agency so even if the Sox aren't coughing up $500m for him, the market will be consumed with his status and we can focus on guys like Urias, Snell, etc.
 

BigSoxFan

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How bout Maguire at catcher? It's still a small sample size but since coming over from the White Sox has shown some pop. That trade despite what the JMOH says looks to be a clear win for Bloom. Yoshida looks like he could be good based on his play in the WBC, assuming he can stay healthy. It is still way to early to write off Casas or Bello as some people on this board are trying to do. Verdugo has improved each and every year of his career. I just think it is too early to completely write off this team before May has even begun.
McGuire is looking like a nice under-the-radar move but it just won’t move the needle much. I agree on Casas or Bello. I am especially bullish on the latter. I don’t think it’s too early to be concerned about this team just by looking at the roster. There are a ton of holes and they really need to hit on a lot of “best case” scenarios to have a viable shot at contending. The new wild card rules obviously help to stay in playoff contention.
 

j-man

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this team needs a lot of work

u couild everyone but devers and the man from japan shouild be on the block

1 maybe a dream but tradle saie eat haif the contact to the phillies mets pardes teams in win now mode
2 trade your closer to the higher bidder
3 fire bloom and look at the astros org their last 5 years as a model
 

EricFeczko

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Ok going back to the original premise of the thread. I'm not sure what "fixing by trade for 2023" means. Leaning in to @John Marzano Olympic Hero's excellent thought question: are we talking about blowing it up to save the farm system or blowing up the farm system to save the MLB team?

Fixing this team for 2023 is doable and there are fewer holes than folks seem to be panicking over; the holes just happen to be very very deep. However, this comes at a cost of GFIN and mortgaging the next few years or so. Again.

Effectively, the team is utterly lacking in competent starting pitching -- none of our pitchers would even qualify as everyday starters and our best starters so far are Houck and Pivetta; neither of whom are effective after two times through the rotation. In addition, we don't have much tradeable talent at the MLB level either -- and doing so would create a gap and another position of need.

The first order of business would be to upgrade the starting pitching with two stable starters. This can't be nickel and dimed. One could create a package deal centered around Bleis/Yorke and another centered around Cedanne/Blaze for two of Nick Lodolo ( Cincy ), Jordan Montgomery (STL), Dylan Cease (White Sox) -- there are others in the same general tier that could be grabbed -- and immediately fix the starting pitching. None of these teams are aiming to compete right now, so they may be amenable to such deals. At that point it would be worth it to just release Kluber outright; this would give an immediate starting rotation of:

Cease
Lodolo
Whitlock
Pivetta
Sale

With Bello and Paxton ready in the wings, by June/July this may look like:

Cease
Lodolo
Bello
Pivetta
Paxton/Sale

Depending on how one wants to slice this, you can take Houck and Whitlock and turn them into bullpen artists -- in turn option kaleb ort and release Ryan Braiser, giving a bullpen of:

Jansen
Sock
Schreiber
Houck
Whitlock
Kelly (Fodder)
Martin (fodder)
Bleier (fodder)

the last three are fairly fungible, and can be swapped around with Ort/Braiser if needed.

With starting/relieving pitching that isn't somewhere between below average to bottom 5, the offense itself will be fine as is. The defense is a problem; you'll still need to get a shortstop. While defense is the only premium needed, it might be worth it to save some semblance of the future by targeting a young player. For this we can try to accelerate the timetable by prying Willy Adames in exchange for Mayer/Mata/Gonzalez/Lugo: with duvall returning this gives a starting 9 of:

C- Reese
1B - Casas *
2B - Arroyo
SS - Adames
3B - Devers
RF - Verdugo
CF - Duvall
LF - Yoshida
DH - Turner

*If one is worried about casas, I guess you could alter the deal and do Adames/Cooper in exchange for Mayer/Casas/Mata -- I'm fine with Arroyo at 2B. Casas gives you more hope for post-2023 but cooper plays well and would be solid in 2023 itself.

Hernandez goes to the bench giving a bench of:

-Hernandez
-Wong
-Tapia
-Refensnyder


Of course, this takes a hack to your farm strength, meaning this team would look terrible again by 2025 or so without a great deal of tinkering. In addition, you're trying to compete in a year that's already going to be highly competitive within the AL east. In other words, the above trades help get a wildcard, not winning the division and will incur huge loss of value for the red sox.

Mayer
Bleis
Jordan
Mata
Cedanne
Yorke
Gonzalez
Lugo
 

bosox188

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The Cardinals and White Sox are absolutely aiming to compete for this year, and the Cardinals might be one of the few teams whose need for pitching is more desperate than ours. There is zero chance they'd be looking to trade Montgomery for anything. The Brewers are also competing this year and they're currently leading their division. And I'm not sure who you meant by Cooper but assuming it was Garrett Cooper, he's on the Marlins.

The Reds certainly aren't competing this year, but Nick Lodolo is pitching like a stud and it's only his second year in the majors, they have several years of control with him. Why would they want to trade a top tier pitcher for a couple of position prospects in the lower minors?

I'm also confident in saying that none of those teams would give a shit about Rafaela, Yorke, or Jordan. The Cardinals are currently loaded with more young bats than they know what to do with, they'll likely be trading some of that away for pitching this year. The Reds have Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, and Cam Collier, all of whom are either better prospects and/or closer to the majors than the guys you listed, so again there's no reason they'd consider trading Lodolo for that.

This is why I think it's very difficult for the Red Sox to trade their way into competition this season, and it's why we didn't see much of it happening in the offseason. Most of what we have in the upper minors is not as good as a lot of other teams; nearly all of our very high ceiling talent is either below AA or up in the majors and needed on the roster (Casas, Bello).
 
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Tony Pena's Gas Cloud

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How about rushing to judgement after getting swept by the PirAAAtes then?

Bloom is not going to last two years.

He might get canned before the end of this season the way things are going.

I'm all on on what @canderson said, he's not known as Mr Brightside for nothing.
That "AAA Pirates" team currently has the third best record in the NL. Try again.
 

Benj4ever

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Yeah; no.
Read it again: "Pittsburgh is 8-5 right now. So, if we are going to rush to judgment, then they're a playoff team, not AAA."

See what I did there, showing how silly rushing to judgment is? Maybe Pittsburgh is a playoff team (they're probably not), but it's ridiculous to make ANY call less than 2 weeks into the season!
 

billy ashley

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This is one of those "many things can be true at the same time," deals

  1. The start of the season has been frustrating
  2. It's way too early to know for sure what this team is.
On the first point, it has been frustrating and folks can and should be concerned about the overall quality of the team. The lack of offense, especially right-handed offense is something that could be a terminal flaw for the 2023 Red Sox. Beyond that, there are reasons to be concerned about Kluber and Sale (more on Sale in a moment).

Some of the issues are bad luck. Adam Duvall breaking his wrist is pretty brutal. Trevor Story getting hurt when he did, was also pretty awful, timing-wise. The offense looks a lot better with Story at 2B and Duvall in center with Hernandez and Arroyo splitting time on the bench and SS.

I was pleased with the Mondesi trade in terms of value; I never saw Taylor as a key piece for the team. That said, I think it's fair to critique that the team should have anticipated Mondesi missing significant time to start the season. He's a lotto ticket at this point. A guy who if he pans out can provide enough offense not to kill ya and is competent to good defense up the middle, while we wait for Mayer (a note on prospects later).

Kluber looking cooked can be attacked. I get it. I think it was an okay signing with limited upside, but in theory, he'd be a fine bulk IP option.

I feel like some of these problems are bad luck and some of them were avoidable. I think you can defend not re-signing Xander, but they needed to find another impact bat if they were going to do so. Being better offensively than 2022 is nice, but not likely enough to make a long post-season run (if you assume the premise that the team is improved over last year)

Okay, on to point 2.

The premise of the argument that Boston would be better than last year was as follows:

  • The offense would be better with Casas replacing Dalbec, Yoshida, Turner, Mondesi and Duvall replacing Xander, Martinez, and the (1,100) plate appearances of Dalbec, Bradley, Duran, Pham, Hosmer, Sanchez and Shaw.

    Obviously, the Duvall and Story injuries hurt this. But the rationale was sound. Casas is off to a slow start, but he has an excellent track record in the minors. If he washes out, that sucks for a variety of reasons. This team needs cost-controlled regular contributors so they can splurge elsewhere. We're sort of stuck with Casas trying to figure it out. Overall, I'm optimistic given his tack record.

    Turner has been fine this year, he's just not started barrelling balls. If he corrects this, he'll be great. The K/BB rates are excellent. It's unlikely he went from a .160 ISO guy to a sub .100 ISO guy overnight. This was a shrewd acquisition which should look very good by year's end.

    Yoshida has been fine thus far. Glad he's coming back. Small sample. Elite K/BB numbers. Power remains a question (small sample but he hits a lot of balls on the ground, thus far).

    Mondesi is sort of an after thought in this plan, given when he was acquired. I like him as a speculative play, but let's be real, the guy is almost never healthy.

  • The Starting Pitching would be better due to the possible returns of Chris Sale and James Paxton
    The riskiest of the reasons to be optimistic. Thus far, Paxton is shoving in AAA and Sale has been awful in the majors.

    Personally, I'm not too eager to pencil in any significant number of innings on Paxton. It's a nice scratch off lottery ticket, but it would be foolish to expect it to pay out. Sale has been dreadful, but he's managed to make it through the month healthy. His command is awful, but that can be forgiven due to the fact that he's pitched so little over the past 3 years. His stuff, while diminished still is drawing a good amount of whiffs, so I'm not completely panicked thus far.

    Do I think he's likely to return to being a front-line starter? Absolutely not. But I do think one can be reasonably optimistic that he won't be useless this season.
  • The entire pitching staff will benefit from Bello, Whitlock, and Houck being healthy and MLB ready. There are also a bunch of MLBish arms in the high minors or back end of the roster (Crawford, Kelly, Winkowski, Murphy, Mata, and Walter)
    The theme of this whole post is that it's too early to tell, but thus far, Bello has looked great in the minors and is set to debut this week, Whitlock is back up (though looked rough hs first start) and Houck remains elite through 1 turn in the order, and garbage beyond (dude should be a bullpen ace).

    In terms of depth, both Crawford and Kelly (before the injury) have looked the part in very small samples. Super small sample with the guys in AAA, though early returns have not been great from Murphy or Mata (Mata is intriguing still, but probably headed to pen by mid-season).

    If either Bello and Whitlock emerge as a legit quality SP, the rotation is world's better. This is especially true if one of Sale or Paxton pan out.
If you accept the AL East is the class of the American League (it is, though the Astros remain dynasty-esque) the unbalanced schedule is probably the main reason Boston wasn't around .500 team last year. If we accept they "should" have won 5-7 more games last year, that's right outside the play-off picture.

The small changes made could in theory get them over the hump and into the play offs. Personally, I'm spoiled and limping into the postseason to get their asses kicked by a much better Yankees, Rays,Jays or Astros team doesn't do much for me but I understand what the plan was and I think you've got to let it ride until mid season before judging it too harshly.

A note on prospects:

Without picking on anyone, I've seen lot of prospects thrown around as potential assets for trade or potential big leaguers. On the subject of trades, I think teams have gotten savvy enough that they're not trading stars for prospects who aren't top-shelf. Further, when planning rosters for the future, it's probably not wise to assume a prospect will be a contributor unless they're performing in the high minors and well regarded.

I've seen folks refer to Blaze Jordan, who is an interesting prospect but not even in the org's top ten and Matthew Lugo, who has an interesting broad set of skills, but is solidly a 2nd or even third their prospect for this team.

In terms of prospects whom you can pencil in getting a regular major league starting shot, Boston really on has the following:
  • Casas if he's still prospect eligible (he's graduating from SoxProspects this month)
  • Yoshida (see above)
  • Mayer (with the hedge that I'm slightly uncomfortable even assuming this, as he's not even in AA, yet. )
I'm actually high on the Sox System but generally you don't predict prospects will be major league caliber starting position players or Starting Pitchers.

Beyond those 3 a mix of types to track:

High Risk Potential Stars:
  • Miguel Bleis
  • Luis Perales
High Risk Potential Regulars:
  • Cedanne Rafeala
  • Mikey Romaro
  • Nick Yorke
  • Brandon Walter
  • Roman Anthony
Guys who have some major league skills who could move into the above groups:
  • Eddison Paulino
  • Blaze Jordan
  • Mathew Lugo
  • Winkleman Gonzalez
  • Emmanual Valdez
  • Chris Murphey
  • Niko Kavadas
  • Luis Guerrero
  • etc.
Generally, you're not trading people in that final group as the centerpiece in a trade. To get a significant asset, you're trading the likes of Mayer, Bleis, and Perales along with one of Rafeala, Romaro, York, Walter, or Anthony.
 
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billy ashley

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Three weeks later, this seems much more plausible than it did when I first came up with it!

The trouble remains, what do you trade him? I like Anderson. But they have a club option for him for 2024. I can't imagine the White Sox trading Anderson without including Mayer or Bleis.

Maybe a deal can be built around Rafeala but if I'm Chicago, I want more of a sure fire starter or higher upside centerpiece for 1.5 years of a very solid SS.

The trade machine isn't perfect, but this is probably the fastest path to an Anderson trade without giving up Mayer or Bleis.

64342
 
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Yelling At Clouds

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Jul 19, 2005
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The trouble remains, what do you trade him? I like Anderson. But they have a club option for him for 2024. I can't imagine the White Sox trading Anderson without including Mayer or Bleis.

Maybe a deal can be built around Rafeala but if I'm Chicago, I want more of a sure fire starter or higher upside centerpiece for 1.5 years of a very solid SS.

The trade machine isn't perfect, but this is probably the fastest path to an Anderson trade without giving up Mayer or Bleis.

View attachment 64342
Sounds good to me. Throw in Mondesi so they don't go over the LT line.

I do think from the White Sox' perspective, it might make more sense to try to get Yorke rather than Rafaela, though. BTV has Yorke worth a lot less, but I don't entirely believe that'd be the case in the real world. That said, one could argue that the White Sox may want to run it back with him at SS next year since neither the Twins nor Guards look like an Astros-style juggernaut in the making at the moment. (Sorry, @Sad Sam Jones)

This is kind of a broader question, though, maybe the question: would you trade someone like Yorke for an impact player - whether you think it's Tim A. or someone else - in order to have a better shot at one of the WC spots?
 

moondog80

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Sounds good to me. Throw in Mondesi so they don't go over the LT line.

I do think from the White Sox' perspective, it might make more sense to try to get Yorke rather than Rafaela, though. BTV has Yorke worth a lot less, but I don't entirely believe that'd be the case in the real world. That said, one could argue that the White Sox may want to run it back with him at SS next year since neither the Twins nor Guards look like an Astros-style juggernaut in the making at the moment. (Sorry, @Sad Sam Jones)

This is kind of a broader question, though, maybe the question: would you trade someone like Yorke for an impact player - whether you think it's Tim A. or someone else - in order to have a better shot at one of the WC spots?
No. I've always thought this could be a good team with a shot at the playoffs and still do, but at the moment I'm not sure it's a team I'm all in on enough to give away guys like Houck, York, or Rafaella.
 

LogansDad

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Sounds good to me. Throw in Mondesi so they don't go over the LT line.

I do think from the White Sox' perspective, it might make more sense to try to get Yorke rather than Rafaela, though. BTV has Yorke worth a lot less, but I don't entirely believe that'd be the case in the real world. That said, one could argue that the White Sox may want to run it back with him at SS next year since neither the Twins nor Guards look like an Astros-style juggernaut in the making at the moment. (Sorry, @Sad Sam Jones)

This is kind of a broader question, though, maybe the question: would you trade someone like Yorke for an impact player - whether you think it's Tim A. or someone else - in order to have a better shot at one of the WC spots?
They can't trade Mondesi until at least June, I think. And I still don't really think I do that trade if I am the Sox. But I am also still really high on Rafaela, and I think Houck is going to end up being a fine mid-rotation starter (maybe by the end of this year, but I do think he is going to move to the pen when Paxton is ready).
 

billy ashley

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I'm way down on Houck compared to most. I think he's ultimately a reliever (a damn good one but a reliever nonetheless). But I don't see how a team wanting to contend would trade one of their 5 best (current) SP options. Especially with Whitlock's health being an open question.

They're better off holding him and suffering through an imperfect SS solution if they're trying to contend this year.
 

E5 Yaz

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Do you still think that the Pirates are not a playoff team? They are leading the NL Central, signed Reynolds to an extension and have lots of up and coming talent
I think they're improved, but the chances of them being a playoff team, based on one stellar month, are slim. They lost three straight to the Rays and follow this series up by hosting a Blue Jays team that will be headed to Pittsburgh wanting to turn things around.
I'm rooting for the Pirates, because they're a fun story; but you can't write their name in ink on a playoff grid at this point.
 

bosockboy

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Cardinals are giving up on Wilson Contreras at C and making him a DH/OF. They have a serious roster glut and might have some early talent to pry away. They are 10-23 and desperate also.
 

moondog80

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Cardinals are giving up on Wilson Contreras at C and making him a DH/OF. They have a serious roster glut and might have some early talent to pry away. They are 10-23 and desperate also.

Keith Law, last winter:

The Red Sox certainly made a choice in giving Masataka Yoshida, an outfielder who has spent his career to date in Japan’s NPB, their first big outlay of the offseason, signing him to a five-year, $90 million deal — money they could have spent on Willson Contreras, who would have filled a bigger need. Yoshida didn’t even make my top 50 free agents, even though he was eligible, as he’s an often-injured outfielder whose power output in Japan seems unlikely to carry over to MLB.
 

scottyno

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Ironically the Sox current catcher tandem is better than Contreras for like 10% of the price
 

moondog80

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It's not just that he was wrong -- his job is to make projections and predictions in a business where the highest paid, most successful execs have a list of "wrong" decisions a mile long. And I'm sure it's also part of his job to be provocative. But there's just a smugness and arrogance to him. Not putting Yoshida in the top 50 when this guy was your #50 seems like a "look at how bold I am!" statement.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fujinsh01.shtml
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Just for informational purposes, the 18 year old pitcher is named Diego Hernandez. He is not expected to pitch this season because he underwent elbow surgery. It was an internal brace procedure like Trevor Story had. He's a lottery ticket, which is about what you expect when you're trading a non-prospect AAA outfielder.