2023 Pats: Post Your Final Draft Grade

2023 Pats: Post Your Final Draft Grade

  • A+

    Votes: 6 3.3%
  • A

    Votes: 37 20.4%
  • A-

    Votes: 40 22.1%
  • B+

    Votes: 36 19.9%
  • B

    Votes: 37 20.4%
  • B-

    Votes: 11 6.1%
  • C+

    Votes: 7 3.9%
  • C

    Votes: 4 2.2%
  • C-

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • D/F

    Votes: 1 0.6%

  • Total voters
    181

nighthob

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I’m just not sure what your point here is, you’re all over the place. New England can’t win the way you claim the only way is, so they’re wisely trying to go the route of creating a smothering D that will require less of their offense.
 

brandonchristensen

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I don't know what to say about the draft itself, but the SOSH coverage of this draft gets a D.

No new threads for everyone! I never watch the draft, I'll check the game thread and see the feelings at the time and then read the created threads...but there are very few of them. I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO THINK HERE GUYS!!!
 

phineas gage

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Jan 2, 2009
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they’re wisely trying to go the route of creating a smothering D that will require less of their offense
And isn't that pretty much how they won their first SB in 2001, before Brady became BRADY? The D and special teams carried them, and Brady avoided mistakes (and yes, came up clutch in the Snow Bowl and SB in a way that Mac almost certainly never will)
 

j44thor

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One thing I forgot is that not only did they draft a K in the 4th but they actually traded up to do so. The next K wasn't taken for 100 picks. I think they were way too aggressive with that pick and would have liked to see them add an upside RB at that spot, Roschon Johnson went 3 picks later, other RBs I think could have helped were Chase Brown, Abankikanda, Eric Gray and Evan Hull, all went in rds 5-6 and I think they are all better than Kevin Harris. They could have added to the RB room and still gotten their kicker in the 6th, probably with the pick they lost in the trade.
 

Cellar-Door

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One thing I forgot is that not only did they draft a K in the 4th but they actually traded up to do so. The next K wasn't taken for 100 picks. I think they were way too aggressive with that pick and would have liked to see them add an upside RB at that spot, Roschon Johnson went 3 picks later, other RBs I think could have helped were Chase Brown, Abankikanda, Eric Gray and Evan Hull, all went in rds 5-6 and I think they are all better than Kevin Harris. They could have added to the RB room and still gotten their kicker in the 6th, probably with the pick they lost in the trade.
So Dane Brugler was taking about this with Kickers which is that usually teams only have 1 or 2 on their board and so if they want to get them they have to be aggressive by a round or sometimes 2 because unlike other positions the gap between your guy and the next one is often the difference between a starter vs not an NFL player.

I assume that Bill had either just Ryland or Ryland and Moody as the only K he thought could upgrade Folk. GB was a threat, and the move up cost was minimal
 

Fishercat

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May 18, 2007
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The kicker should be less surprising than it feels. As consistent as Folk has been I can't imagine Bill likes having to account for his shortcomings in terms of max distance and kickoffs and he had a drop off last year in every phase. Bill will obviously pay for ST, I gotta trust him on that.
 

Mystic Merlin

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The kicker should be less surprising than it feels. As consistent as Folk has been I can't imagine Bill likes having to account for his shortcomings in terms of max distance and kickoffs and he had a drop off last year in every phase. Bill will obviously pay for ST, I gotta trust him on that.
Also, Folk is 38 years old (39 in November).

Regarding the timing of his pick, I generally have no time for people who complain about ‘reaches’ in the fourth round and later, especially at K/P where there is generally only a few players that project as NFL caliber.
 

67YAZ

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This thread was a lot of fun during the draft & the sub-forum was a blast the past few months.

But too much of the discussion devolves into comparing the Pata to KC, Buffalo, & Cincy. It’s what other fans did with the Pats during the Brady era, and it’ssad and futile. The Pats undress Bill aren’t going to tank nor are they going full-Rams-mortgage-the-future mode. This is a middle class club for the foreseeable future. And that’s still fun for me.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Well now you're asking a much bigger question and even I am not ready to go there yet.

Look, I don't care about the randomness of the draft. Somebody has to be held accountable, right?

All I did was give a B grade to this draft and say this team won't score many points and probably won't win many games. I stand by that assessment. Feel free to counter it, I'll listen.
Despite being discounted here, the common draft grade for the Patriots in the national media has been even lower than what you have been pitching. Some samples:

WalterFootball - B-
NBC Sports - B
The Sporting News - C- and ranked 29th, which seems overly harsh to be fair
PFF - A- And some good analysis, although a bit optimistic.
CBS Sports - C+

Yada Yada Yada, you get it. And let me say that Post-draft grades the next day are inherently silly, but this is the thread.

But guys....the Patriots need to figure out if Mac Jones is the guy, and there were some really good OL folks in the second round if Gonzalez was considered to be that much better than Broderick Jones (I really thought that the Pats were going to take him if they didn't trade up for Skoronski or Johnson - but Johnson went way too early for them) or any of the cornucopia of 1st round WRs. They picked a kicker in the 4th round. I don't get the folks who are grading this out at an A- or higher

And the O-line seems unlikely to get fixed in Free Agency. This year's class of Free Agent OL bros were mainly a bit old or a bit injury-prone and yet the top 20 guys have mostly all been signed. We will see.

I kind of feel the same way about the WR Free Agency group as well....but let's see. I don't think that the Patriots gained much, if anything, in losing Meyers and gaining Smith-Schuster (who may be ready for a rebound, but seems like the tires have lost a lot of their tread. We will see).
 

snowmanny

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I would love to see the list of draft picks the Patriots could have made that would have convinced folks that they now they could nearly compete offensively with KC, Cincinnati, Buffalo, the Jets, etc.

Actually I sort of assume the Jets will be somehow be a shitshow but you get my drift.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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I would love to see the list of draft picks the Patriots could have made that would have convinced folks that they now they could nearly compete offensively with KC, Cincinnati, Buffalo, the Jets, etc.

Actually I sort of assume the Jets will be somehow be a shitshow but you get my drift.
I think the bar you are putting up here is too high. No one thinks that they have "Offense on par with thermonuclear offenses in KC, Cincinnati or Buffalo" capabilities in one year. But to win in the NFL, particularly in the AFC East they need to have a much better offense. I am on the record as saying that I think Mac Jones is not a top 16 QB and I think his ceiling is low, but give the guy a chance.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Actually I sort of assume the Jets will be somehow be a shitshow but you get my drift.
I raved about Joe Douglas' draft last year and those guys have played really well. This year it looked like their draft room was run by a drunken Fireman Ed. And this whole Aaron Rodgers thing has "Zava" written all over it. These guys will be must see tv.
 

BigSoxFan

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Despite being discounted here, the common draft grade for the Patriots in the national media has been even lower than what you have been pitching. Some samples:

WalterFootball - B-
NBC Sports - B
The Sporting News - C- and ranked 29th, which seems overly harsh to be fair
PFF - A- And some good analysis, although a bit optimistic.
CBS Sports - C+

Yada Yada Yada, you get it. And let me say that Post-draft grades the next day are inherently silly, but this is the thread.

But guys....the Patriots need to figure out if Mac Jones is the guy, and there were some really good OL folks in the second round if Gonzalez was considered to be that much better than Broderick Jones (I really thought that the Pats were going to take him if they didn't trade up for Skoronski or Johnson - but Johnson went way too early for them) or any of the cornucopia of 1st round WRs. They picked a kicker in the 4th round. I don't get the folks who are grading this out at an A- or higher

And the O-line seems unlikely to get fixed in Free Agency. This year's class of Free Agent OL bros were mainly a bit old or a bit injury-prone and yet the top 20 guys have mostly all been signed. We will see.

I kind of feel the same way about the WR Free Agency group as well....but let's see. I don't think that the Patriots gained much, if anything, in losing Meyers and gaining Smith-Schuster (who may be ready for a rebound, but seems like the tires have lost a lot of their tread. We will see).
Who were the OL in the second round you speak of? They were all interior linemen, which the Pats are fine at. Are you suggesting taking Steen at 46?
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Who were the OL in the second round you speak of? They were all interior linemen, which the Pats are fine at. Are you suggesting taking Steen at 46?
I'm less impressed by the interior line than you are I guess. Bill picked a C and 2 Gs in this draft and no OTs, so maybe he is less confident there as well. Mauch, Steen, Bergeron (they would have had to trade up as it happened) all looked like really good future Patriots to me, but I was honestly stunned when the Pats traded out of the 14 spot to get Broderick Jones after missing out on Skoronski and Wright in Round 1, so I assumed they were going OL in round 2.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Yammer, don’t even be throwing Pete Prisco at us. Also I didn’t even know The Sporting News still existed, to be honest.

I’m here for differing views on the players they picked (SMU didn’t love their third round pick, for example, and their second rounder isn’t a terribly exciting pick), but a lot of the bottom line draft grades come from people who have no persuasive authority and frankly seemed to have just whipped up grades for 32 teams because they had a day to publish copy.
 

Cellar-Door

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I'm less impressed by the interior line than you are I guess. Bill picked a C and 2 Gs in this draft and no OTs, so maybe he is less confident there as well. Mauch, Steen, Bergeron (they would have had to trade up as it happened) all looked like really good future Patriots to me, but I was honestly stunned when the Pats traded out of the 14 spot to get Broderick Jones after missing out on Skoronski and Wright in Round 1, so I assumed they were going OL in round 2.
I'll say, I would have been pretty furious if Bill drafted one of those guards, who aren't clearly better than the guards he got in the 4th instead of a top edge rusher.
As to Jones... I love that trade out and pick, I like Jones some, but he's a really raw T who has a lot of question marks, he's not a clear blue chip talent, and in some ways you're taking him because he's what's left for guys who might be starting LT someday... Gonzales is widely considered a true blue chipper, starter from day 1 at a clear position of need.

Yammer, don’t even be throwing Pete Prisco at us. Also I didn’t even know The Sporting News still existed, to be honest.

I’m here for differing views on the players they picked (SMU didn’t love their third round pick, for example, and their second rounder isn’t a terribly exciting pick), but a lot of the bottom line draft grades come from people who have no persuasive authority and frankly seemed to have just whipped up grades for 32 teams because they had a day to publish copy.
Grades are generally dumb, and even the guys doing them usually know that (the ones who don't are bad at this). One of the best ways to tell if someone is serious is if they give out D and F grades... if they do they probably aren't serious. People complained about PFF giving out so many As and A- grades... to which the answer was... prospect ranking is hard, even people who spend a lot of time on this have different opinions, as do all the different teams, there are very few picks that aren't defensible or even well reasoned. The idea that the big board rankings are static is silly, everything is really in horizontal tiers, and some players would be much higher or lower if you were building a board for specific teams based on schemes and rosters.

Like SMU, Jeremiah, Brugler. I have a lot of faith all those guys look at a ton of tape, really assess guys... they can have some very divergent views on guys. Then you have guys who focus on one position group, like Thorn... he also can have very different views.

I mentioned earlier about Brugler talking about mid-round kicker picks. That's a great way to tell if a writer is someone who really researches both prospects and draft history patterns. If you see a guy who grades low and the basis is... they took a kicker and/or punter.... don't take that person seriously, it just tells you they don't really pay attention. Kickers get drafted every year...as they should, and it's usually somewhere in the 4th or 5th round for the top 1-2 depending on year quality.
 
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BigSoxFan

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I'm less impressed by the interior line than you are I guess. Bill picked a C and 2 Gs in this draft and no OTs, so maybe he is less confident there as well. Mauch, Steen, Bergeron (they would have had to trade up as it happened) all looked like really good future Patriots to me, but I was honestly stunned when the Pats traded out of the 14 spot to get Broderick Jones after missing out on Skoronski and Wright in Round 1, so I assumed they were going OL in round 2.
But why? Andrews is a good center. Onwenu has been solid to really good. And Strange was a first round pick last year who they’re committed to. Once they passed on Jones in R1, there wasn’t much to get in Round 2. I definitely am not overly comfortable with Brown/Reiff as the OTs but not sure a raw OT like Jones was fixing anything this year.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Yammer, don’t even be throwing Pete Prisco at us. Also I didn’t even know The Sporting News still existed, to be honest.

I’m here for differing views on the players they picked (SMU didn’t love their third round pick, for example, and their second rounder isn’t a terribly exciting pick), but a lot of the bottom line draft grades come from people who have no persuasive authority and frankly seemed to have just whipped up grades for 32 teams because they had a day to publish copy.
You are free to find credible sources that offer up A grades, I took these totally at random (other than WalterFootball.com which I think has the best draft coverage out there) of credible sources. Dude, read the draft grades in this forum for the last five drafts.....I mean.....I feel like I am talking to my alcoholic buddy here.
 

Mystic Merlin

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You are free to find credible sources that offer up A grades, I took these totally at random (other than WalterFootball.com which I think has the best draft coverage out there) of credible sources. Dude, read the draft grades in this forum for the last five drafts.....I mean.....I feel like I am talking to my alcoholic buddy here.
I couldn’t help myself with Prisco, to be honest.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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I'll say, I would have been pretty furious if Bill drafted one of those guards, who aren't clearly better than the guards he got in the 4th instead of a top edge rusher.
This is such a poor post. I get trying to be smug, but this is "Derek Jeter is the best shortstop ever to play" dumb.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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But why? Andrews is a good center. Onwenu has been solid to really good. And Strange was a first round pick last year who they’re committed to. Once they passed on Jones in R1, there wasn’t much to get in Round 2. I definitely am not overly comfortable with Brown/Reiff as the OTs but not sure a raw OT like Jones was fixing anything this year.
Well, first off, your assertion that an OT can't provide a huge lift in year 1 may be true. I kind of thought that the Patriots might go in heavy for Orlando Brown in FA, but they didn't so here we are. I don't see Jones, Wright or Skoronski as being THAT raw, but reasonable people can disagree. I think all three guys have "ability to move guys around for many years" trajectories as their most likely scenario, but again...reasonable people.

I would agree that Andrews is not a disaster. He is a decent center who doesn't get beaten all that much. I am less convinced on Onwenu and Strange, but let's see.

For a team that won Super Bowls with a bananas good OL that mainly consisted of guys who were driving a truck the prior week, this is a weird place for the Patriots to be. Cloning Dan Koppen (Most underrated football player of all time, seriously) would not be the worst decision y'all could make.
 

BigSoxFan

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Well, first off, your assertion that an OT can't provide a huge lift in year 1 may be true. I kind of thought that the Patriots might go in heavy for Orlando Brown in FA, but they didn't so here we are. I don't see Jones, Wright or Skoronski as being THAT raw, but reasonable people can disagree. I think all three guys have "ability to move guys around for many years" trajectories as their most likely scenario, but again...reasonable people.

I would agree that Andrews is not a disaster. He is a decent center who doesn't get beaten all that much. I am less convinced on Onwenu and Strange, but let's see.

For a team that won Super Bowls with a bananas good OL that mainly consisted of guys who were driving a truck the prior week, this is a weird place for the Patriots to be. Cloning Dan Koppen (Most underrated football player of all time, seriously) would not be the worst decision y'all could make.
Well, I went to BC from 2000-2004 so you just won me over with the Dan Koppen comment. I think rookie OTs can work. Matt Light and Nate Solder were year 1 contributors for this team but my read on Jones is that he has high upside but may take a little while to get there. But you couldn’t go wrong taking him and I’m sure that wasn’t an easy decision for BB.

Ultimately, though, I share the same concerns about the offense that pretty much everyone has, either fan or neutral observer. The offense still feels like 1-2 pieces short and I think it’s going to be a real struggle if/when Stevenson misses time. There just aren’t enough playmakers. I’m hoping there are more moves to come but I doubt it. I can see the logic of leaning into the defense knowing that there is no real path to adding the impact guy the team needs (unless they move for Jeudy/Hopkins - not likely).
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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That not only reveals your empathic side but it is also inspiring. I’m ready to run through a wall.
I'm a motivator.

On a slightly more serious note though, I hate when teams go halfway with a strategy. The data is just so clear that when you draft someone you hope to be your franchise QB, you need to give him the support to thrive - from line protection to coaching and beyond. Either build up your O-line and put a QB back there, or put in the QB and then give him a decent O-line and a few really nice skill players. I feel like Bill O'Brien (college classmate of mine) is going to go up against some really tough defenses this season and he is not going to be able to make a good decision on Jones if he is of the mind that Jones has a potential long term future with the franchise.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Well, I went to BC from 2000-2004 so you just won me over with the Dan Koppen comment.
Dan Koppen played next to a rotating cast of guys who had been in meth houses three days prior to the game and the line was a wall. Dante Scarnecchia deserves a lot of credit, but anyone who thinks that Koppen's ability to be an absolute unit and anchor in the center, make the right line calls, communicate clearly with guys and motivate them on the field had little to do with the success of those Patriot teams simply doesn't understand line play. Jason Kelce gets all the credit in the world (appropriately, he is filthy) for doing this with guys who played at big time Power 5 conferences and are coached by Jeff Stoutland, but Koppen seems to be an afterthought. It drives me insane. Fuck TB12. DK67 4lyfe.




Postlude: Not to make this about me, but in the not-too-distant past my son was invited to a lineman camp at Koppen's High School about an hour from us. It attracted the usual cast of wildly pushy parents wanting to promote their kid in various ways, kids whose parents were driving 1993 Nissans showing up with thousands of dollars worth of gear and personal coaches, the usual bullshit. All the parents were trying to talk with the small handful of college coaches and assistants who had showed up and there I was basically going full on "Dan Koppen's stalker" with the Whitehall coaches. On the one hand I think they liked the attention (the broader group of parents had literally no interest in them once they saw the college folks), on the other, I think they got sick of hearing this loser ask them 1,000 questions about a guy who had left the school 20+ years prior.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Dan Koppen played next to a rotating cast of guys who had been in meth houses three days prior to the game and the line was a wall. Dante Scarnecchia deserves a lot of credit, but anyone who thinks that Koppen's ability to be an absolute unit and anchor in the center, make the right line calls, communicate clearly with guys and motivate them on the field had little to do with the success of those Patriot teams simply doesn't understand line play. Jason Kelce gets all the credit in the world (appropriately, he is filthy) for doing this with guys who played at big time Power 5 conferences and are coached by Jeff Stoutland, but Koppen seems to be an afterthought. It drives me insane. Fuck TB12. DK67 4lyfe.




Postlude: Not to make this about me, but in the not-too-distant past my son was invited to a lineman camp at Koppen's High School about an hour from us. It attracted the usual cast of wildly pushy parents wanting to promote their kid in various ways, kids whose parents were driving 1993 Nissans showing up with thousands of dollars worth of gear and personal coaches, the usual bullshit. All the parents were trying to talk with the small handful of college coaches and assistants who had showed up and there I was basically going full on "Dan Koppen's stalker" with the Whitehall coaches. On the one hand I think they liked the attention (the broader group of parents had literally no interest in them once they saw the college folks), on the other, I think they got sick of hearing this loser ask them 1,000 questions about a guy who had left the school 20+ years prior.

When Dan Koppen was in the Alps
Fighting grizzly bears
He used his magical fire breath
And saved the maidens fair
 

Van Everyman

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I'm a motivator.

On a slightly more serious note though, I hate when teams go halfway with a strategy. The data is just so clear that when you draft someone you hope to be your franchise QB, you need to give him the support to thrive - from line protection to coaching and beyond. Either build up your O-line and put a QB back there, or put in the QB and then give him a decent O-line and a few really nice skill players. I feel like Bill O'Brien (college classmate of mine) is going to go up against some really tough defenses this season and he is not going to be able to make a good decision on Jones if he is of the mind that Jones has a potential long term future with the franchise.
FWIW I sort of thought this was the thinking in 2021 – they loaded up on competent receivers, had two solid runners and a good OL. And Mac did very well for most of the year.
 

Shelterdog

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FWIW I sort of thought this was the thinking in 2021 – they loaded up on competent receivers, had two solid runners and a good OL. And Mac did very well for most of the year.
I think that was the plan for 2022 but it didn't work because of the coaching fiasco amplified by the RT becoming the Spinal Tap drummer of Pats positions, and I think that's the plan for 2023.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think that was the plan for 2022 but it didn't work because of the coaching fiasco amplified by the RT becoming the Spinal Tap drummer of Pats positions, and I think that's the plan for 2023.
Yeah, I'd probably also add Mac coming into camp bailing on pockets left and right and thinking he could make Aaron Rodgers fade-away throws hurt too. He settled down eventually, but some of that was definitely on him. I remember as early a pre-season he was just bailing out on phantom pressure.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I'm a motivator.

On a slightly more serious note though, I hate when teams go halfway with a strategy. The data is just so clear that when you draft someone you hope to be your franchise QB, you need to give him the support to thrive - from line protection to coaching and beyond. Either build up your O-line and put a QB back there, or put in the QB and then give him a decent O-line and a few really nice skill players. I feel like Bill O'Brien (college classmate of mine) is going to go up against some really tough defenses this season and he is not going to be able to make a good decision on Jones if he is of the mind that Jones has a potential long term future with the franchise.
What if BB has already made this call in the negative?

I was pretty excited about drafting Mac and largely bullish on his first year but at this point he doesn't look like a guy who you want to give a second contract and he only has two years left on his first contract, with next year looking like a year that the Patriots can't possibly compete. The window for him to be a player that provides value for a competitive team is barely open.

Big picture, I think BB had an original plan for a quick rebuild around Mac that essentially failed due to poor choices in free agency and Mac not being quite as good as they had hoped. So they seem to be switching gears, not just in their draft choices but with the way they have been handling cap/FA issues too. The priority is not to fuck up future cap space, add talent via the draft through drafting BPA, keep churning the roster, and then hopefully go into next season with a young talented defensive core emerging, a boatload (currently $130m) in cap space, and some decent draft capital in what looks like a very good QB class. At that point you figure out how to get the QB via draft or trade and to put the talent around him to thrive, just like you say. Meanwhile Mac flashes his goofy grin and keeps the seat warm. Or falls off the seat and its Zappe time again.
 

Commander Shears

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I had no idea that the Sporting News still existed.

The fact that Bedard thinks a draft in which they drafted Dugger, Uche, and Onwenu is underwhelming is right up there with his most famous Pats' take:
To be fair, Dugger is great going forward but poor when moving away from the line of scrimmage which is hardly the ideal characteristic for a safety in 2023. As a football player, he's.. fine? Not bad but not exactly a cornerstone either. Uche had an explosion of sacks last year (which was quite welcome) but he also has 48 career tackles through three seasons. Onwenu was an excellent find but that's far from a great draft.
 

ShaneTrot

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To be fair, Dugger is great going forward but poor when moving away from the line of scrimmage which is hardly the ideal characteristic for a safety in 2023. As a football player, he's.. fine? Not bad but not exactly a cornerstone either. Uche had an explosion of sacks last year (which was quite welcome) but he also has 48 career tackles through three seasons. Onwenu was an excellent find but that's far from a great draft.
I think if you get three starting-level players out of a draft, that is outstanding. In most drafts, you are lucky to get one starter and a serviceable back up or two.
 

Devizier

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One interesting factoid is that ~1/3 of the rostered players in the NFL are undrafted. I think that’s pretty striking given that day 1/2 picks are almost always rostered for at least their rookie seasons.

The hit rate on the average draft pick is pretty low, in other words.
 

Cellar-Door

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What if BB has already made this call in the negative?

I was pretty excited about drafting Mac and largely bullish on his first year but at this point he doesn't look like a guy who you want to give a second contract and he only has two years left on his first contract, with next year looking like a year that the Patriots can't possibly compete. The window for him to be a player that provides value for a competitive team is barely open.

Big picture, I think BB had an original plan for a quick rebuild around Mac that essentially failed due to poor choices in free agency and Mac not being quite as good as they had hoped. So they seem to be switching gears, not just in their draft choices but with the way they have been handling cap/FA issues too. The priority is not to fuck up future cap space, add talent via the draft through drafting BPA, keep churning the roster, and then hopefully go into next season with a young talented defensive core emerging, a boatload (currently $130m) in cap space, and some decent draft capital in what looks like a very good QB class. At that point you figure out how to get the QB via draft or trade and to put the talent around him to thrive, just like you say. Meanwhile Mac flashes his goofy grin and keeps the seat warm. Or falls off the seat and its Zappe time again.
i don't know if bill has made his decision, but I do think he feels that if you can't have decent success with this pass-catching corps, RB, O-line, a good defense and now Bill O'Brien, then you're not a QB good enough to give a 2nd contract to and he'll move on. I don't think Bill is a believer in the idea that you take a mediocre QB and surround him with big expensive skill position players and hope he takes you to the promised land. I kind of agree with him. Closest teams to that to make recent SBs were Jimmy G 49ers and Goff Rams. Even then, Rams were more that type, the 49ers were built on running the ball with a bunch of guys. They had Kittle and a breakout rookie 2nd round WR, but their WRs 2 and 3 were a washed Emmanuel Sanders and Kendrick Bourne.
 

Shelterdog

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i don't know if bill has made his decision, but I do think he feels that if you can't have decent success with this pass-catching corps, RB, O-line, a good defense and now Bill O'Brien, then you're not a QB good enough to give a 2nd contract to and he'll move on. I don't think Bill is a believer in the idea that you take a mediocre QB and surround him with big expensive skill position players and hope he takes you to the promised land. I kind of agree with him. Closest teams to that to make recent SBs were Jimmy G 49ers and Goff Rams. Even then, Rams were more that type, the 49ers were built on running the ball with a bunch of guys. They had Kittle and a breakout rookie 2nd round WR, but their WRs 2 and 3 were a washed Emmanuel Sanders and Kendrick Bourne.
Do we think BB would put together a team all that differently if he was committed to Mac or still undecided on Mac? BB likes having a "balanced smart tough team" so he's always going to try and have a good line, good defense, etc. He's not opposed to having good WRs and TEs but he didn't break the bank for them in twenty years with Brady and there's no reason to think that he subscribes the currently popular belief that you need to spend a ton to get a Tyreke Hill or Chase or AJ Brown to help a QB
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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i don't know if bill has made his decision, but I do think he feels that if you can't have decent success with this pass-catching corps, RB, O-line, a good defense and now Bill O'Brien, then you're not a QB good enough to give a 2nd contract to and he'll move on. I don't think Bill is a believer in the idea that you take a mediocre QB and surround him with big expensive skill position players and hope he takes you to the promised land. I kind of agree with him. Closest teams to that to make recent SBs were Jimmy G 49ers and Goff Rams. Even then, Rams were more that type, the 49ers were built on running the ball with a bunch of guys. They had Kittle and a breakout rookie 2nd round WR, but their WRs 2 and 3 were a washed Emmanuel Sanders and Kendrick Bourne.
Yeah, well put. If Mac lights it up this year with this supporting cast then I'm sure BB would be open to a second contract. But if you need everything around you to be right just to show that you're better than Bailey Zappe then maybe you're never going to be worth the money.

We've never really seen BB deal with this specific situation but we know that he is ruthless in cutting guys who don't perform up to their cap number so the odds of him handing Mac 35m a year (or even a 25m guaranteed fifth year option a year from now) seem kind of long to me.
 
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Van Everyman

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If Mac lights it up this year with this supporting cast then I'm sure BB would be open to a second contract. But if you need everything around you to be right just to show that you're better than Bailey Zappe then maybe you're never going to be worth the money.
This feels like kind of the wrong way to be looking at it. Last year wasn’t a bump in the road organizationally – it was a dysfunctional mess that a more experienced quarterback would’ve likely struggled with to some extent, if not quite a bit.

It seems like the better way to say it is, if Mac can lead a top-1/3 offense with competent line and receiver play then he probably deserves a second contract.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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What if BB has already made this call in the negative?

I was pretty excited about drafting Mac and largely bullish on his first year but at this point he doesn't look like a guy who you want to give a second contract and he only has two years left on his first contract, with next year looking like a year that the Patriots can't possibly compete. The window for him to be a player that provides value for a competitive team is barely open.

Big picture, I think BB had an original plan for a quick rebuild around Mac that essentially failed due to poor choices in free agency and Mac not being quite as good as they had hoped. So they seem to be switching gears, not just in their draft choices but with the way they have been handling cap/FA issues too. The priority is not to fuck up future cap space, add talent via the draft through drafting BPA, keep churning the roster, and then hopefully go into next season with a young talented defensive core emerging, a boatload (currently $130m) in cap space, and some decent draft capital in what looks like a very good QB class. At that point you figure out how to get the QB via draft or trade and to put the talent around him to thrive, just like you say. Meanwhile Mac flashes his goofy grin and keeps the seat warm. Or falls off the seat and its Zappe time again.
If you are right then this draft makes more sense, but when do you get the QB and when do you build the line?
 

Cellar-Door

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Do we think BB would put together a team all that differently if he was committed to Mac or still undecided on Mac? BB likes having a "balanced smart tough team" so he's always going to try and have a good line, good defense, etc. He's not opposed to having good WRs and TEs but he didn't break the bank for them in twenty years with Brady and there's no reason to think that he subscribes the currently popular belief that you need to spend a ton to get a Tyreke Hill or Chase or AJ Brown to help a QB
yeah, that's my point. Bill is going to put together a solid balanced team, and if his QB can cut it.... great, if his QB can't cut it... then just like every other position he'll go try to find one who will.
 

Shelterdog

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If you are right then this draft makes more sense, but when do you get the QB and when do you build the line?
Don’t you add a QB when you can find them and perpetually build your line? Since lines benefit from continuity so much you really want to get to the point where you’re adding a new guy or two a year as others retire or leave as free agents (and how much you spend on the new guys depends on what positions they play and how lucky you’ve been filling the tackle spots)
 

Cellar-Door

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Don’t you add a QB when you can find them and perpetually build your line? Since lines benefit from continuity so much you really want to get to the point where you’re adding a new guy or two a year as others retire or leave as free agents (and how much you spend on the new guys depends on what positions they play and how lucky you’ve been filling the tackle spots)
yeah, the answer to when do you get your QB is always.... when you can find one better than you have at a reasonable price. Mac was an example of that, he was reasonably priced (we didn't move up) and better than what we had. If we get to a spot where we can pick one better we will, if we get to a spot where we can sign one better for a reasonable contract, we will, if we get to a point were we can get one better on a reasonable trade/deal we probably will. It's all about balancing costs and production. For now, Mac on his rookie deal is the best option, so you build up the roster and see how the cost/production ratio changes.