Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

Green (Tongued) Monster

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Ty. When the market went from 226 to 223.5 but the 1H only moved from 110.5 to 110 I snagged some 1H Under as well. These secondary markets are a place to keep in your holster.
I hit on the bucks/suns under and lakers/mavs under along with overs on ayton and lopez rebounds. Didn’t play the wizards under until you mentioned it. Great day, thanks!
 

HomeRunBaker

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6-3 overall to the Under tonight. Books are still opening numbers like it’s a month ago so going to step in as long as they do. Played two overnights that I expect to get hit in the morning…..

* Under 237 Pistons/Hornets
* Under 225.5 Magic/Pelicans
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’m dabbling in the Player Prop market today in the Celtics game with the focus being on Marcus Smart.

Jaylen OUT tonight so Tatum’s props are jacked up and juiced to the moon so being a little creative here with Smart. He had his minutes limited to foul trouble last game so between that performance and no Jaylen tonight he should be more aggressive offensively. White being on the report as probable with an ankle should only increase Smart’s mental preparedness coming to the arena today.

* Over 22.5 P+R+A (1u)
* Over 12.5 Pts (.25u)
* Over 5.5 Asst (.25u)

I would prefer the P+A prop but don’t have access to it so attacked this way. None of these are heavily juiced. LFG!!!

Edit: added more Over Pts & Over Assts individually.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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6-3 overall to the Under tonight. Books are still opening numbers like it’s a month ago so going to step in as long as they do. Played two overnights that I expect to get hit in the morning…..

* Under 237 Pistons/Hornets
* Under 225.5 Magic/Pelicans
4-0 to the Under tonight with none remotely close even with the Hornets 41-pt 1Q. Market went against me in Magic/Pels closing at 229.5 but they only fell 35 pts short. :)

I’ll continue to selectively step in on these Unders until adjustments occur.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not as excited about these Unders as I was last night. I could probably blind play the entire 10-game card but not going to do that. Right now the three I’m leaning toward are Kings/Thunder, Bucks/Nets, and Blazers/Warriors simply but haven’t played any yet. I also lean Thunder +2.5 but didn’t play it yet either.

When I land on an angle to attack I’m looking for spots to step in good and not dabble like I had done for the past month. If I’m in on something I’m in good. I’ll update later.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Weird card tonight. Even with my enormous variables adjustments I couldn’t come up with anything that really stood out. I barely have any totals available for tomorrow on the overnights. Even more weird.

Unders went 6-4 (or 5-4-1 if you pushed on Lakers) on the night. We’re on to Wednesday.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Played 4 Unders so far today. May be more coming.

U219.5 Cavs/Celtics
U222 Pistons/Bulls
U229.5 Suns/Hornets
U233 Blazers/Pelicans
 

Red Averages

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Can we talk about risk sizing for a bit? I’d say in finance people are obsessed about ideas but talk much less about position sizing, which is arguably even more important when it is dynamic vs consistent regardless of risk/reward in the bet.

What is the difference to you in units on a standard play vs a “getting in good” spot? How do you think about unit sizing if you intend to take the other side in-game to play a middle? If you are taking the other side is it fully boxed or half size? How do you think about sizing regular season vs post season?

many more questions, but I think/expect many will find this helpful. Happy to share my own as well.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Can we talk about risk sizing for a bit? I’d say in finance people are obsessed about ideas but talk much less about position sizing, which is arguably even more important when it is dynamic vs consistent regardless of risk/reward in the bet.

What is the difference to you in units on a standard play vs a “getting in good” spot? How do you think about unit sizing if you intend to take the other side in-game to play a middle? If you are taking the other side is it fully boxed or half size? How do you think about sizing regular season vs post season?

many more questions, but I think/expect many will find this helpful. Happy to share my own as well.
Good stuff! I’m sitting in a poker game right now and I want to go into detail on some of this either late tonight or tomorrow. I’ll attack the question on middles right now and this is interesting how I approach some of this.

I don’t utilize middles in my arsenal at all anymore unless there is a mitigating factor for me to like the other side independent of my original play. One of my greatest strength, which I attribute to poker training, is my ability to separate bias during observation. Take last night for example if I had played Portland +5. They were up 20 at the half and the Warriors 2H line is -10.5 so live they are +9.5 (estimating, I don’t know what it was).

If I’m watching, either the game live or the box score at the half, and nothing triggers an alert (such as red hot Blazers 3-pt shooting that isn’t sustainable) then I ride with my Blazer play. However if say the Blazers were up 20 due to 14-19 three-pt shooting I’m going to be clicking Warriors 2H all day……regardless of my pre-game Portland wager (bias separation).
 

Red Averages

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Ok HRB, you’re 0-1 on responses. The topic is risk sizing and you responded without acknowledging your sizing.

Arguably in your example you may have more conviction in the halftime number AND it’s a hedge to your original risk AND you have a possibility of middling by 5-6 points, does that change your sizing at all? Or is it 1x1 based on what your bet pregame, or adjusted to factor in the vig? Would you look to do part of it and follow on if the 3 pt shooting kept up in the first 5 min of the 3rd quarter? Etc.

Sorry to belabor the point, this is a huge theme for me at work, yet at the same time I see tourist gamblers fire in every bet without even thinking about sizing their bets correctly. Curious how someone more familiar with sports betting may have tweaked their process over the years.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ok HRB, you’re 0-1 on responses. The topic is risk sizing and you responded without acknowledging your sizing.

Arguably in your example you may have more conviction in the halftime number AND it’s a hedge to your original risk AND you have a possibility of middling by 5-6 points, does that change your sizing at all? Or is it 1x1 based on what your bet pregame, or adjusted to factor in the vig? Would you look to do part of it and follow on if the 3 pt shooting kept up in the first 5 min of the 3rd quarter? Etc.

Sorry to belabor the point, this is a huge theme for me at work, yet at the same time I see tourist gamblers fire in every bet without even thinking about sizing their bets correctly. Curious how someone more familiar with sports betting may have tweaked their process over the years.
That’s what I get for not being fully focused. I’ll respond later but I NEVER view a 2H or live bet as a hedge but rather independently of any pregame action. Sizing would also have nothing to do with pregame play/size.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Played 4 Unders so far today. May be more coming.

U219.5 Cavs/Celtics
U222 Pistons/Bulls
U229.5 Suns/Hornets
U233 Blazers/Pelicans
I added U229 Magic/Bucks
My man Darius Garland, who I have supported since before draft night, doin me wrong tonight. His final minute 3-pt barrage was the difference between 3-2 and 2-3.

I think the full blown Under hunting ended tonight as it seemed nearly everyone had a better rhythm and pace to their games offensively after getting a few games under their belts while the defenses appeared much softer to pre-break levels.

@Red Averages, I’ll respond tomorrow.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Can we talk about risk sizing for a bit? I’d say in finance people are obsessed about ideas but talk much less about position sizing, which is arguably even more important when it is dynamic vs consistent regardless of risk/reward in the bet.

What is the difference to you in units on a standard play vs a “getting in good” spot? How do you think about unit sizing if you intend to take the other side in-game to play a middle? If you are taking the other side is it fully boxed or half size? How do you think about sizing regular season vs post season?

many more questions, but I think/expect many will find this helpful. Happy to share my own as well.
The short answer would be to win 1-4 units with exceptions to exceed that on rare occasion. I would classify 1-unit as a standard play by definition for my own purpose. You’ll see touts commonly use 1.5u or more as a base which is only a way to pump up your “UNITZ!” to sell a product. They do this for no other reason than it is an effective tool for their objective (MMA can be especially "sold", as touts post their breakdown videos while manipulating stats to fit their narrative as this is so easy to do in this sport due to there being many levels and stylistic matchups). I've also seen some base their unit size off amount risked compared to amount to win which comes into effect more so with money line sports such as MLB, NHL, MMA, Tennis, etc. Personally, I base mine off amount to win to remain consistent in each sport that also uses a nickel or dime line. This becomes tricky for me most commonly in MMA, which is my highest volume sport per play (units) when I will often fine mispriced lines that show value but is also a heavy favorite. The word "value' is also often misunderstood as most assume this means "underdog" which is not necessarily true. If I identify a -210 wager that should be priced at -340 then i have just found great value......whereas an underdog at +180 that I have priced at +240 is not good value. So I have to be careful on not being overexposed while recognizing that if I have great value on a play I don't want to be underexposed either so yeah, money line sports are a delicate balance with an added sense of awareness needed. Ok, back to Units.....

“Getting in good” units can and does vary for a number of reasons. I'd have to gain access to the number I want which in todays market can be challenging if you aren't lightning quick, I'd have to have the necessout "Outs" (accounts) to both find that number and adhere to whatever my limit on said game is determined to be by the agent/book. As a recent example, say I want to GIG for 3-4u on Marcus Smart's Prop Over and Under in Pistons/Hornets that same night.....I am never going to be able to accomplish this as currently set up (in a state without "legal" options) due to limits/available number on Smart's prop market. I couldn't even get down anything on his P+A market even though that was my preferred option. Aside from being limited in certain markets there is the challenge of beating fast and ever changing numbers. My plays come from a number of sources....certain sports (NBA, MMA, NFL primarily) I orginate myself but even then I have access to news/info based plays which I'll have literally seconds to click so jumping from out to out searching for my optimal number isn't always possible. So i may have great info that i would like to play or 3-4 units at say +6 points but can only get 1 unit at that number then must decide on the fly if i want to add at +5.5, +5 or even +4.5 to reach my objective for units while getting a bad number for some of it. This is where "feel" or intuition comes into play in making this decision. Trust me, there are still many times I am not comfortable with how a sequence all plays out.....I don't have a 7-man team simultaneously hitting 8 accounts on each screen like someone I know does. Shit, I'm a one-man show who often receives information while at a poker table, while at dinner with the wife, while at the gym, the beach, on the highway, in the bathroom, etc. Soooo.....it's easy to say Arkansas +6 is going to be a 3u play but that may not necessarily be my actual reality.

Hoping I'm now 1-1 even with the ramble.
 

Red Averages

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Thank you. It sounds like you are fluctuating your risk sizing regularly, making it more dynamic vs standardized (what I see from people starting out). This is what I had hoped/expected from someone that is doing this professionally, moreso than recreationally.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Like Dallas a lot tonight so attacked a couple different ways. If game is close I don’t trust them to close out properly so played….

* Dallas 1H -1.5

Then a couple sprinkles on winning margin with Dallas by 20+ (+600) and a pizza strip on Dallas by 17-20 (+1100) as this could be a runaway with the Sixers off a Miami game last night…..is Harden still there?
 

Red Averages

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Like Dallas a lot tonight so attacked a couple different ways. If game is close I don’t trust them to close out properly so played….

* Dallas 1H -1.5

Then a couple sprinkles on winning margin with Dallas by 20+ (+600) and a pizza strip on Dallas by 17-20 (+1100) as this could be a runaway with the Sixers off a Miami game last night…..is Harden still there?
Thank you for this. Amazing call. I tailed with 1u first quarter, 2u first half, and then did .25 units laddering Dal -6 through -12 for 3 units with the goal of in-game hedging out that risk. Yet… 76ers aren’t playing D. They look tired. Might just let it ride with Dallas up 15…. If it stays around here with 7-8min left I’ll start going the other way.
 

Red Averages

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I took Wizards +2, under 222.5 in the game, and did a little of a parlay of the two.
So bad how these teams foul down 12 with a minute left now. I’m old enough to remember when teams actually acknowledged a loss vs stat padding… oh well.
 

HomeRunBaker

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So bad how these teams foul down 12 with a minute left now. I’m old enough to remember when teams actually acknowledged a loss vs stat padding… oh well.
That was brutal. I just looked at the box score. They kept fouling but once Dallas got possession at :33 that’s when both teams stop and dribble the clock out. Crazy that Dallas went in and scored. Sorry man.
 

Red Averages

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Thankfully took some Philly +13 and +14 and then +9.5.
Mavs might be the dumbest team in the league in crunch time.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Made two NBA plays tonight. I’ll use units to show the ratio of how I played them.

* Under 227.5 Wolves/Lakers (2u)

* Nets +11 (1u)

Like the total pretty good here as I don’t expect LA to shoot as well as they did vs OKC and with AD back I expect pace to be slower as well. I don’t feel Minny will light up the scoreboard to support this high a number.

Ideal Celtics fade in a flat sandwich spot coming off Cavs win with Knicks payback in front of them. Nets coming off blowout loss should come out focused. Easy play to make.
 

Red Averages

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I’m on several unders: 2units each on OKC, Cha, Atl, GSW, LAL games.

Ended up 2 units yesterday which feels disappointing given what could have been, but it’s a win so I’ll take it.
 
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shawnrbu

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Scheduling seems odd with T-Wolves at Clippers on Tuesday, off Wednesday and Thursday and at Lakers on Friday. 5 nights in a row in LA counting the off day on Monday. Hope it translates to a below average shooting night.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Scheduling seems odd with T-Wolves at Clippers on Tuesday, off Wednesday and Thursday and at Lakers on Friday. 5 nights in a row in LA counting the off day on Monday. Hope it translates to a below average shooting night.
Yup def part of my handicap. I’m guessing them flew back on Tues night but if they remained in LA that probably isn’t a great way to prepare for a decimated Laker team. I lean Lakers as my next potential play after Nets too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’m on several unders: 2units each on OKC, Cha, Atl, GSW, LAL games.

Ended up 2 units yesterday which feels disappointing given what could have been, but it’s a win so I’ll take it.
Looks like you had a good night here. Very nice! I got more Lakers Under late 1Q at 237 which was nice. Both teams lit it up early which wasn’t expected to be sustainable. I tailed a buddy on a CBB 1H Under that was an easy win and an MMA PFL dog winner for one sweep of a night!

Big and Long day tomorrow but (thankfully) a condensed NBA slate. Waiting for numbers to come out on two games.
 

Red Averages

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Yeah, better night last night. I’m up about 10units this far, cashed out 6 for risk management purposes.

so far on 76ers +5.5 and under 229 (though it jumped to 230 already…)
 

HomeRunBaker

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3units under Toronto/wash 222
2units under Atl/Mia 225
1 unit Hou +1
1 unit Min +5.5
I lean all these side. I did play one…..

* Under 222.5 Raptors/Wizards

* Bonus UFC play: Only putting it here as it’s such a live dog at an outrageous price. Jessica Penne +265, it goes at 6:30 on ESPN+ and if you have access to split decision props you can sprinkle some on both sides.
 

Red Averages

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Welp Raptors/Wiz we’re on pace to miss the under by 12 points but instead went to OT and over hits.

onto the next one
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’ll check back in later but like the afternoon card a lot.

* Warriors -5

* Under 233 Suns/Mavs


Steph’s return in LA should energize the Warriors and a lot of halfcourt sets going down in Dallas.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Mavs not going to shoot 50% from 3 all game… hopefully. Expecting the pace to slow in the 2nd half as well but we’ll see.
Pace was perfect in the 1H….sadly, the 3-pt shotmaking was close to that as well. Every star came out with a purpose today. Next.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I am really dumb for not hammering the Grant Williams prop market Unders across the board these last couple games. I was looking for one play to end the week too and it never occurred to me until I saw his Tony Snell-like goose egg line score.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Wake up to Quickley now the -140 favorite for 6th man Award based on dropping 40 last night while starting. Markets are messed up sometimes.

Waiting for overnights to come out for tomorrow. I have 3 spots circled with one that I’m drooling over where you have to click it and not watch.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Two of the three probably going to wait for injury reports, they are Orlando and Brooklyn.

The one I’m really waiting on is hoping to get +10 on the Hornets versus Knicks in a great flat spot for NY coming off 2OT win and leaving for a west coast swing the next day.