He was significantly below his competition age at every level.
He reached the majors at age 22 and showed unbelievable strike zone control.
I honestly cannot believe people are already trying to place constraints on his skillset.
Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding
- Thread starter jcormjmac
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He reached the majors at age 22 and showed unbelievable strike zone control.
I honestly cannot believe people are already trying to place constraints on his skillset.
Casas' track record against lefties is a pretty small sample when you look at it.
105 PA of .221/.362/.256 in 2022 in AAA, and 25 PA of .211/.400/.211 in Boston.
83 PA of .219/.289/.301 in 2021, mostly in AA, with a bit of AAA at the end.
2020 was canceled.
104 PA of .214/.317/.416 in 2019 in A ball.
1 PA of .000/1.000/.000 in 2018 in rookie ball.
So... ~300 PA against lefties over four seasons in the entirety of his professional career. At that sample size, a marginal home would raise his SLG by something like (back of the napkin-ing this) .010.
We'll see I guess.
105 PA of .221/.362/.256 in 2022 in AAA, and 25 PA of .211/.400/.211 in Boston.
83 PA of .219/.289/.301 in 2021, mostly in AA, with a bit of AAA at the end.
2020 was canceled.
104 PA of .214/.317/.416 in 2019 in A ball.
1 PA of .000/1.000/.000 in 2018 in rookie ball.
So... ~300 PA against lefties over four seasons in the entirety of his professional career. At that sample size, a marginal home would raise his SLG by something like (back of the napkin-ing this) .010.
We'll see I guess.
It would make no sense to trade Bello and Cassas for anyone at this point. Yorke and Houke are in different categories, for sure. Even if they don't make any changes, and I am pretty sure there are more balls to drop, the Red Sox might be sneakily good in 2023.
I feel better about them now that Devers is locked down, Sale and Paxton are reportedly going to be ready to go, and the bullpen has been shored up over last year. We may be sneakily better than most are expecting this year, but it's a very tough division - Baltimore is on the rise. I think we're more likely to be battling TB than Baltimore for 4th.
Agree with you about not moving Casas or Bello for anyone. I'd include Houck in that category, but I'm possibly more optimistic about him than most. We have players on the 40 man I'd be happy to move - Duran, Brasier, Dalbec, Refsnyder - but I obviously don't see any of them resulting in anything that moves us forward.
I’m only moving Houck for a difference maker like Adames, and you’d think the Brewers would covet a valuable arm with paydays coming for Burnes and Woodruff.
Isn't the general consensus that you need to pay up more in terms of prospects during the off-season? If I'm SD I'm in no hurry to trade Kim and neither of these packages gets close IMO. If I'm Preller, I'm asking for Mayer and if the Sox aren't willing to start there I just say 'we'll see what we can do at the trade deadline' where they'll likely have multiple competitive teams in the hunt for his services.
I'm not sure why the Padres would be looking to move Kim. I know they have a whole bunch of players to slot into different positions, especially once Tatis is back, but Kim seems like an excellent fit at 2B for them. For a team in "win now" mode, I'm not sure why they'd be eager to trade their cost controlled leadoff hitter, best defender, and one of the better hitting 2B in the league (or at least a competent one).
I'm pretty sure you'd have to blow San Diego away to pry Kim from them, and Verdugo in particular seems like an odd fit. I don't really care how many expendable pieces are added to the trade (Duran, Arroyo, etc.), the Padres aren't making their lineup and defense worse to add someone like Tanner Houck.
Edit: cross posted with CoffeeNerdness. I'm in full agreement.
I'm pretty sure you'd have to blow San Diego away to pry Kim from them, and Verdugo in particular seems like an odd fit. I don't really care how many expendable pieces are added to the trade (Duran, Arroyo, etc.), the Padres aren't making their lineup and defense worse to add someone like Tanner Houck.
Edit: cross posted with CoffeeNerdness. I'm in full agreement.
Houck is one of few players on the roster - maybe the only one?* - I see as being in that sweet spot of having value to another team but not being too valuable to the Sox to actually trade away. Right now, he’s probably either the 5th or 6th starter or the 3rd or 4th on the pen’s depth chart, not so hard to imagine another team thinking he could handle a bigger role. I don’t think it makes much sense to spend the last couple of seasons building up the minors depth only to start trading it away at the first opportunity. And the guys who you all would like to see traded away - the Dalbecs and Durans of the world - probably wouldn’t get you anything of significance (maybe another Mills type).
* - I can see the argument for Verdugo belonging in that category with Houck, but I am filing it under “believe it when I see it” for now.
* - I can see the argument for Verdugo belonging in that category with Houck, but I am filing it under “believe it when I see it” for now.
Huh? Mayer is ridiculously more valuable than Kim, & if the Padres are moving Kim it's in large part to fill other holes on their major league roster because once they promise SS to X, Kim is less valuable to them than to a lot of other teams as his primary utility is as an excellent defensive SS.
I don't think the Crawford/Duran package would move the needle at all for the Padres, but as currently constructed Pivetta would probably be their 4th or 5th starter & Dalbec would absolutely be a big part of their lineup against lefties. & Verdugo would be a starting outfielder.
So filling 3 holes to get rid of a guy who projects to be a good defensive 2B who may or may not be an average hitter, makes sense if that's their best offer.
Yep. Do not get this at all.
Casas reaching the majors at age 22 is really age-adjusted to 21 per our old school calculations, due to the lost Covid year.
Steamer has him forecasted at 124 wRC+ in ~500PA. This "OMG but he needs a platoon partner" argument is a strawman. He'll get a night off occasionally against super tough LHP, but he's gonna ISO like always.
Yeah, it's certainly a small sample. I didn't want to drill it down to a smaller sample (ie the 25 PA against LHP in the majors last year).
I sincerely hope this is not coming across in anyway as "trade Casas now, he stinks", that is not at all my intent. I think he is a very good prospect, and one I'm glad we have on the Red Sox. There is no way I'd trade him for literally anyone 30 or over, and based on a lot of the names we've been linked to, there is basically no chance I'd move Casas in a package for those guys.
If someone thinks he's going to become Anthony Rizzo facing RHP and LHP (wRC+ of 133 and 119), then of course there is no way you trade him - for anyone.
If you think it's more likely he's in the Schwarber mold, or even not quite as good as Schwarber (wRC+ of 131 and 88, respectively) then I'd consider trading him for a certain type of major league return, as alluded to in the story noted above. I think a player whom is only going to be 28 to start the year, has 3 seasons of control left, seems open to discussing an extension, has averaged a 3.4 bWAR over the course of his career (4.4 bWAR if you throw out the 2020 Covid Tournament, but I'll stick with the career average) and has demonstrated the kind of splits in 4 years in the majors that we HOPE Casas will achieve (Reynolds is a career wRC+ player of 130 vs RHP and 117 vs LHP), that would be the kind of player I'd consider moving him for.
This isn't my saying that Casas should be shopped, dealt on the cheap, moved for a one or even two year player or anything of the sort, I'm very pleased he's on the Red Sox and we should plan to play him every day - short of the 15 or so games guys get off each year. I more think that Reynolds is being under-valued on the board while glossing over something in Casas track record that - to this point at least - raises some reason for at least keeping in mind.
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Kim had a grand total of 66 ABs as their leadoff hitter last year & his main lineup spot was 7th, with his next most common spots being 6th & 8th.
Last year he grossly outperformed his peripherals to put up a 105 wRC+.
Last year Verdugo battled through injuries & put up a career worst 103 WRC+.
This year, Steamer projects a 105 wRC+ for Kim & 113 for Verdugo.
Guessing here, but they might prefer
Carpenter - 1B
Cronenworth - 2B
Verdugo - LF
Pivetta - SP5
Lugo - SP6/swing
over
Cronenworth - 1B
Kim - 2B
Carpenter - LF
Lugo - SP5
...but who's to say. They clearly like Lugo and Nick Martinez, but they seem like a risky bet to hold up to a full workload of innings. Snell often misses time, and while Darvish has been a workhorse lately, he's also turning 37 this year. I'd think Carpenter is a better bet to stay healthy if he's DH-ing or playing 1B than playing LF, and Cronenworth is a fine defensive 2B.
If I'm the Sox, I'm hoping to get Kim for Verdugo/Pivetta/Dalbec.
If they thought Kim was that dude they would have locked him up rather than making X a godfather offer & promising him a position that takes away Kim's primary utility to the team.
They started him 9th in the lineup more often than they started him 1st last year. He is very very more valuable to another team than he is to the Padres at this point, so there absolutely should be a nexus point where a deal gets done.
I don't think it's super likely that the Red Sox are the highest bidder, though.
Whether or not they think or thought he's the dude they know that if they actually even want to trade him that they're likely the only team out there that can offer a SS with gold glove caliber defense, who has a decent bat with upside, and who's in his mid-20s. A package that includes a cast-off and two average guys with zero upside won't get it done and probably gets Bloom hung-up on.
If they want to trade Kim, wouldn’t they be best served moving him for prospects and then signing someone like Wacha, as opposed to dealing him for someone comparable like Pivetta?
Verdugo is 7 months younger than Kim & already a better hitter. But, like I said, I would expect another team to offer more than that & to get Kim.
How does the level of competition in Korea compare to Japan for example?
My issues with Kim's '22 not being sustainable are:
Average exit velocity - 10th percentile
Hard hit % - 12th percentile
Barrel % - 14th percentile
Outs Above Average - 95th percentile
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ha-seong-kim-673490?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
Not hitting the ball hard isn't really a scenery issue I don't think.
Valid point. And, in fact, I've changed my mind on this, because trading Dugie would mean too many ABs for Duvall and Tapia. A better scenario: Platoon Verdugo and Refsnyder in RF; keep Kike in the middle infield full time. Use Tapia to spell Duvall in CF; pinch run, spot-start
I do find this interesting. He really improved year over year in his strike zone judgement but that can only take you so far. The other adjustment appears to be a significant jump in launch angle and subsequently a .59 jump in his xSLG. Those are very great adjustments, but at some point they can only take you so far he would need a very real jump in exit velo to add any further value at the plate.
I do think people seem to just glance at his WAR and think he's the guy. But there are definitely concerns in giving up value for a defensive player with downside offensively.
Oh yeah, that guy. I'd thought his suspension/injury had him out longer but he's due back late April. What a weird team.
As for the contact quality, that is the issue. How do we square that low quality of contact with a guy who had a 30 HR season in Korea? And if the contact skills are indeed poor, how does that profile play in a post-shift era? Is a fast dude with great contact skills more valuable now than before? I mean, Steven Kwan just had a pretty nice season for Cleveland and his contact quality numbers are notably worse than Kim's. They're also about the same size: 5'9", 170.
And the Korean league is clearly worse than Japan (and in particular has a higher offensive baseline), but if I told you that a 19 year old plus-defensive shortstop had posted a .290/.360/.490 line in, say, high-A, you'd find that pretty notable, right? Even if it came in a hitters' league, like the California League? The KBO is certainly a higher level of competition than the California League, and those were Kim's numbers as a 19 year old.
So I get that his offensive profile is a bit of a puzzle, but I think the trend is positive and getting into the AL East where the coastal marine layer and cavernous Mountain West parks are less of a factor would probably help his power play up a bit, too.
And let's not lose sight of the fact that the defense is the carrying tool here. In 2021, Kim managed 2 bWAR with a 73 OPS+, just based on the glove. The floor is high. A Kim-Story middle infield (once the latter returns from getting his elbow tendons taped back together) should be really good. Especially given that Bello has a Framber-like ground ball rate, and the shift is going away.
The Brewers are very deep in pitching, with several guys as good as or better than Houck. No way you get Adames for him. I don't think they're ready to discuss moving Burnes or Woodruff yet, but that day is coming.
They've only tried Tatis in CF & RF so far in his career. They could see him as the Grisham replacement as they are reportedly also shopping Grisham. They could think Azocar is fine in CF until Tatis returns as his carrying skill is also defense.
Who knows, though?
This is what I keep coming back to with Kim. With a Kim - Story - Hernandez/Rafeala up the middle through 2024, at least your team has an identity. That would be most likely the best up the middle defense in baseball. With the shift ban, I have to think that's going to be as valuable as it's very been
Absolutely. The floor is insanely high as a ++ defensive SS. Which is why I think the Padres need to move him if they aren't planning on playing him at SS. I just don't think I would value him more than other teams do.
& the 19 y/o A+ thing is fine, but the analogy gets a bit confusing when due to weird circumstances, the player has to stay in A+ ball & does worse in his age 20 & 22 seasons. It seems like he's comfortable putting his full self into pitches against bad pitchers. Last year he had 314 PAs in low leverage situations & 268 PAs in medium or high leverage situations. 8 of his 11 homers came in those low leverage situations & he posted a 121 wRC+ in those spots (compared to the 105 overall). His rookie year was a very similar breakdown (6 of 8 homers in low leverage, 83 wRC+ compared to 70 overall).
On the other hand, Verdugo had 309 PAs in low leverage situations & 335 in medium or high. He only hit 4 of his 11 homers in low leverage situations & posted an 89 wRC+ in those situations (compared to the 103 overall). I feel like a guy who is thriving in those higher leverage spots would have an easier time improving in low leverage than a guy who thrives in low leverage would have against higher leverage.
What other teams are in the market for a SS like Kim? Most teams are set. Looking at the league:
BAL- but they have Gunnar Henderson, not sure they want to block him.
NYY- Volpe appears to be the guy and they have others to hold down the position until he's ready.
LAA- I guess they could look to upgrade from Rengifo/Fletcher, but not sure what they have to offer that would interest SD.
MIA- maybe a bigger deal that involves a Pablo Lopez? Not sure what that does for MIA, though.
CIN- Not really contenders and they have SS prospects they probably don't want to block.
STL- Do they want to upgrade from Tommy Edman?
ARI- Could upgrade from Perdomo, but does SD want to deal him in their division?
LAD- Can't see them helping the Dodgers.
I'm not saying a Dalbec, Verdugo, Pivetta deal is going to get a deal done, but who are the Sox competing against here? Baltimore and the Angels? Can they offer an MLB ready talent?
Personally, I like a deal centered around Houck for Kim, given Houck's ability to move to the bullpen if 2 of Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo or Adrian Morejon are performing as SD's #4 and #5 starters.
BAL- but they have Gunnar Henderson, not sure they want to block him.
NYY- Volpe appears to be the guy and they have others to hold down the position until he's ready.
LAA- I guess they could look to upgrade from Rengifo/Fletcher, but not sure what they have to offer that would interest SD.
MIA- maybe a bigger deal that involves a Pablo Lopez? Not sure what that does for MIA, though.
CIN- Not really contenders and they have SS prospects they probably don't want to block.
STL- Do they want to upgrade from Tommy Edman?
ARI- Could upgrade from Perdomo, but does SD want to deal him in their division?
LAD- Can't see them helping the Dodgers.
I'm not saying a Dalbec, Verdugo, Pivetta deal is going to get a deal done, but who are the Sox competing against here? Baltimore and the Angels? Can they offer an MLB ready talent?
Personally, I like a deal centered around Houck for Kim, given Houck's ability to move to the bullpen if 2 of Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo or Adrian Morejon are performing as SD's #4 and #5 starters.
The trophy is a miniature version of Kim standing at an airport counter.
I think it's unlikely Kim is acquired, but another move needs to be made IMO. If the Sox honestly think going into the season with Kiki as the primary SS, Arroyo the starting 2B, and Duvall the primary CF, that appears so be woefully inadequate to compete whatsoever in the AL East. Who subs in for any of these guys when they simply need a day off, speak nothing of an injury? Duran? Taipia? Dalbec? Valdez? Wong? It's obvious they need someone else on the ML roster who can play SS...
Yeah, I can see 2B (less so 3B because of his bat), but my thinking was he's most valuable at SS so I was focused on those teams. And I don't think the 2B market is that big, either. Maybe add the CHW to the list, but that's about it among the teams who have a chance to contend.
Are the Padres actually shopping Kim? Or are they just willing to listen to offers (overpays) for a player they like and have a role for?
I think the Sox are most likely competing against the Padres for a talent that the Padres like and plan to use. Not sure that looking at the holes in other teams as if it is a competition just between those few teams and the Red Sox is particularly helpful unless the Padres are motivated sellers.
It doesn't seem like they are.
I know the Kim stuff is likely overkill, but even in a vacuum I'd still have Kim >> Verdugo. I buy Verdugo is likely to be better offensively in 2023, but the D is not remotely close. Add in the SS need >> OF need.
Steamer has Kim in for a WAR regression from last season and still clearly above Verdugo (2.9 to 2.1).
Also, despite the peripherals I do see some potential offensive upside given the Korea #s and early MLB trajectory.
I guess I assumed that Arraez was not on the trade block. Didn't he win the AL batting title? I guess he was their super (duper) utility player rather than having a set position. Twins got a good young pitcher by all accounts. Sox had no MLB ready talent that they could've given to compete with that.