Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

beautokyo

New Member
Jun 5, 2008
267
Tokyo, Japan
I highly doubt you'll see Duran again play CF for the Sawx. I have a feeling (as do quite a few of you others that) something bigger is on the horizon. Verdugo for one I have a feeling is gone.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,278
Umm...Tapia is both bad at offense & defense. Are we sure this is even a major league contract?
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,278
Why wouldn't it be?
The part where he is both bad on offense & defense? He's 2 years older than Verdugo & both worse on offense & defense. He's coming off a 0.3 fWAR season in 433 PAs (despite being gifted a free grand slam) & his career best season is 0.7 fWAR.

He provides no particular value that I can see & as such signing him only makes sense if it's a minor league deal. Like if they did happen to trade Verdugo to fill a different hole, I can't imagine it would be a net positive if their plan is to throw Tapia into right.

Also, the Blue Jays non-tendered him. I do think his name is pretty cool, though.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
That's what I'm thinking ... but where?
Padres seems most logical to me but idk? Braves, Twins, Rangers seem possible. Royals would be funny.

Umm...Tapia is both bad at offense & defense. Are we sure this is even a major league contract?
It’s possible but at 28 I’d think he might be able to do better?

If the outfield is something like Yoshida | Kiké | Duvall/Tapia, with Kim at short and Arroyo and Wendle at 2B, with Kiké cycling through the INF and Refsnyder the OF, that seems like a good fix.

Trade Verdugo, Pivetta and Dalbec for Kim? Duran for Wendle?
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,014
Oregon

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,278
Padres seems most logical to me but idk? Braves, Twins, Rangers seem possible. Royals would be funny.



It’s possible but at 28 I’d think he might be able to do better?

If the outfield is something like Yoshida | Kiké | Duvall/Tapia, with Kim at short and Arroyo and Wendle at 2B, with Kiké cycling through the INF and Refsnyder the OF, that seems like a good fix.

Trade Verdugo, Pivetta and Dalbec for Kim? Duran for Wendle?
He had a 93 wRC+ against righties (78 against lefties). He's not some awesome platoon guy. He turns 29 next month, never walks (like ever), chases everything, making contact often but weakly, is in the 10th percentile in outfield jump & just generally isn't someone I would want on my MLB team unless they can figure something major out to fix his approach.

But we're hoping he gets better at 29 so we can move off Verdugo who doesn't turn 27 until May & who has put up 7.2 fWAR in the last 4 seasons compared to 1.5 for Tapia? I don't see it at all (bWAR is even worse - 8.5 to 1.5).

But I'll be patient & see how it all plays out.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
He had a 93 wRC+ against righties (78 against lefties). He's not some awesome platoon guy. He turns 29 next month, never walks (like ever), chases everything, making contact often but weakly, is in the 10th percentile in outfield jump & just generally isn't someone I would want on my MLB team unless they can figure something major out to fix his approach.

But we're hoping he gets better at 29 so we can move off Verdugo who doesn't turn 27 until May & who has put up 7.2 fWAR in the last 4 seasons compared to 1.5 for Tapia? I don't see it at all (bWAR is even worse - 8.5 to 1.5).

But I'll be patient & see how it all plays out.
Yeah, I’m not a big fan of the guy. I think you’re right that Duvall/Ref would be better suited to take those PAs rather than a strict platoon with Tapia taking the strong half. The equation could be more that Refsnyder and/or Duvall could replace Verdugo’s production?

OTOH, Tapia’s may be okay though. His CF work has graded out as +5 OAA/+3 DRS in 439 innings, most of them last year. He makes a ton of contact, runs very well and can steal a base or two. With Story out, he would immediately be the team’s biggest stolen base threat.

Still could totally be a MiLB contract. But I’d think the Pirates or Reds or something would give a guy like this a full-time job.
 
Last edited:

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,278
Yeah, I’m not a big fan of the guy. I think you’re right that Duvall/Ref would be better suited to take those PAs rather than a strict platoon with Tapia taking the strong half. The equation could be more that Refsnyder and/or Duvall could replace Verdugo’s production?

OTOH, Tapia’s may be okay though. His CF work has graded out as +5 OAA/+3 DRS in 439 innings, most of them last year. He makes a ton of contact, runs very well and can steal a base or two. With Story out, he would immediately be the team’s biggest stolen base threat.

Still could totally be a MiLB contract. But I’d think the Pirates or Reds or something would give a guy like this a full-time job.
Seems like small sample size stuff as his jumps are bad & defense was pretty poor in right.

He did have 20 steals in '21, but no more than 9 any other year & 8 last year.

I was thinking he may be someone who would benefit from the shift ban, but he was shifted about half the time last year & put up identical wRC+ with or without the shift. He also had the benefit of being part of the 2nd best offense in baseball last year & still wasn't impactful offensively & the Jays were happy to move on from him.

I think this probably just relates to a lack of AAA depth. Hopefully. Other than Duran/Allen/Rafaela who would really be in the Worcester outfield? & I mentioned somewhere that it may make sense to try Duran at 2B at Worcester.

As for other jobs? Idk those teams probably aren't too interested in feeding a bunch of ABs to a guy without much upside who wouldn't be part of any long-term rebuild.
 

walt in maryland

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
223
Woodbine, MD
Cotillo playing the numbers game
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1615945734867783680?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet


So, he thinks with 4 non-pitcher reserve spots on the everyday roster that 2 of them would go to outfielders ... leaving a backup catcher and an extra infielder for the other two. Seems a tad outfield heavy to me, but I suppose it's possible
That's one too many outfielders. Verdugo would see significantly reduced playing time. Trading him seems to make more sense.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
7,877
Boston, MA
That's one too many outfielders. Verdugo would see significantly reduced playing time. Trading him seems to make more sense.
How does it make sense to trade your best outfielder and replace him with worse players? This signing seems fine for minor league depth, but the lineup is much better with Yoshida, Duvall, and Verdugo in the outfield with Hernandez at short than Yoshida, Hernandez, Duvall/Tapia in the outfield and someone like Kim at short. You'd have to really believe in the value of defense to even that out.
 

Niastri

Member
SoSH Member
If we're going to compete in '23, I'd think the eggs should probably be in someone's basket besides Pivetta's. We've got six starters (Sale, Bello, Whitlock, Paxton, Kluber and Houck) who all project better than Nick this year, and five others with starter upside that it could greatly benefit future teams if we found innings for this year (Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Murphy, Walter).

You're not going to QO Pivetta two years from now. He's a debatable non-tender candidate in his arb3 season in 2024 without significant improvement, and I don't see any projections who like him to improve. I'd say trade him now while we have the depth, and while he has two years of controllable league-average innings.
Pivetta has had significant periods of excellent starts. If he can somehow turn a few of the "bad Pivetta" starts into "great Pivetta" starts every year, he would easily be a 3 instead of a 5-6 in the rotation.

His first five starts resulted in 20.2 innings and 18 earned runs (7.84 era) After that, 159 innings with 73 earned runs (4.3 era) for the rest of the season. He also immediately after his terrible start to the season had a stretch of 6 starts, 41 innings and 6 earned runs (1.32 era).

As it is, he was worth 2.6 bWAR last year. I think he'll add just a touch more consistency this year and maybe be worth 3+ WAR.

Considering the entire rotation besides Pivetta is one big question mark, I think Pivetta is more valuable to the Sox than any other team in baseball and will pitch this for the Sox this season, and do it well.
 
Last edited:

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,084
Pivetta has had significant periods of excellent starts. If he can somehow turn a few of the "bad Pivetta" starts into "great Pivetta" starts every year, he would easily be a 3 instead of a 5-6 in the rotation.

His first five starts resulted in 20.2 innings and 18 earned runs (7.84 era) After that, 159 innings with 73 earned runs (4.3 era) for the rest of the season. He also immediately after his terrible start to the season had a stretch of 6 starts, 41 innings and 6 earned runs (1.32 era).

As it is, he was worth 2.6 bWAR last year. I think he'll add just a touch more consistency this year and maybe be worth 3+ WAR.

Considering the entire rotation besides Pivetta is one big question mark, I think Pivetta is more valuable to the Sox than any other team in baseball and will this for the Sox this season, and do it well.
I actually think Pivetta makes a ton of sense in a move with San Diego. Back end rotation is one of their bigger flaws.
 

mr_smith02

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2003
4,352
Upstate NY
Man, if this front office has a plan it is certainly very difficult to decipher what the heck that plan is at this point. It feels like they wake up each morning and come up with a new plan.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
How does it make sense to trade your best outfielder and replace him with worse players? This signing seems fine for minor league depth, but the lineup is much better with Yoshida, Duvall, and Verdugo in the outfield with Hernandez at short than Yoshida, Hernandez, Duvall/Tapia in the outfield and someone like Kim at short. You'd have to really believe in the value of defense to even that out.
Calling him "our best outfielder" seems charitable to Verdugo, but he's a decent player. In his 25-26 seasons, he's put up a 105 wRC+, which is nothing special. But it looks like he's been dinged a bit hitting in Fenway, which diminishes his power. He's "lost" about 9-10 HRs over the last two years to park dimensions, so it's reasonable to think he's better than he's shown.

We'll see what the final configuration is but I'd be comfortable with some strategic deployment of Duvall/Refsnyder/Tapia putting up comparable value to Verdugo in right field. Those three guys combined hit .255/.304/.408 last year (which includes Duvall playing through a wrist injury), compared with Verdugo who hit .280/.328/.405.

Again, my personal theory is that they want to see if Refsnyder can do in 350-400 PAs what he did in 175 last year.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 19, 2008
3,932
I actually think Pivetta makes a ton of sense in a move with San Diego. Back end rotation is one of their bigger flaws.
And Houck. I think he makes even more sense for SD, as he can be moved to the bullpen and be a weapon there if they're happy with 2 of Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo and Adrian Morejon in the rotation. Similar to how they used Nick Martinez last year. And BTV has a trade of Houck for Kim nearly dead even. He'd also offer them a cost-controlled SP next year when Snell and Darvish are free agents and Machado likely opting out.
 

Daniel_Son

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2021
1,683
San Diego
Man, if this front office has a plan it is certainly very difficult to decipher what the heck that plan is at this point. It feels like they wake up each morning and come up with a new plan.
We don't have much MLB-ready outfield depth in the minors. Tapia and Greg Allen fill that need.
 

geoflin

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 26, 2004
709
Melrose MA
Now that Tapia is in the organization, how about this:
Sox trade Verdugo, Crawford, and Duran to SD for Kim. BTV sees this as about even.
Sox are left with:

C McGuire/Wong/Alfaro
1B Casas/Turner
2B Arroyo/Hernandez
SS Kim/Hernandez
3B Devers/Turner
LF Yoshida/Refsnyder
CF Hernandez/Tapia
RF Duvall/Refsnyder/Tapia
DH Turner

This leaves room to keep Alfaro in the majors as a 3rd C/ backup OF and also frees up Wong to back up at 2B. Or they could add an inexpensive utility infielder instead.
Kim''s salary is about $700K more than Verdugo's so a slight hit there but nothing we can't currently handle. Tapia's and Alfaro's major league salaries would have to be added for luxury tax purposes but I think there is enough room for that.
 

The Gray Eagle

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
16,720
It'd be great if people could put their made-up trade ideas in this thread:
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/gitter-done-theo-lets-put-all-our-dumb-i-mean-brilliant-trade-suggestions-in-this-thread.37918/

Instead of in the "Rumors" thread.

Everyone loves to suggest trades, and that's great, but seems to me a fan-suggested trade idea is quite different than a rumored trade or signing.

Since this is a rumors thread, I'll include one in this post:
Red Sox have recieved "significant" trade interest in Tanner Houck:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/red-sox-trade-rumors-tanner-houck.html

As such, it stands to reason that any deal involving Houck would need to involve Major League talent heading back to Boston. The Sox could theoretically withstand the subtraction of Houck from the pitching staff thanks to those aforementioned bullpen additions and a decent crop of depth options in the rotation (which, in addition to the previously listed names, includes Josh Winckowski, Bryan Mata and Kutter Crawford). There’s also quite a bit of rotation depth still available in free agency, so the Sox could always look to backfill via the open market in the event that they trade a current starting pitcher.
(apologies if this has already been posted here, it's hard to keep track, which is why I made this post in the first place.)
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,278
Man, if this front office has a plan it is certainly very difficult to decipher what the heck that plan is at this point. It feels like they wake up each morning and come up with a new plan.
They are signing average major league players to minor league contracts so that if necessary they can have replacement level players rather than sub-replacement level players?

Last year the Red Sox had 1,763 PAs from guys who had a negative fWAR on the season: 29% of their total PAs.

In order of PAs those guys were:

Dalbec: 353 (-0.1 fWAR)
JBJ: 290 (-0.3 fWAR)
Franchy: 275 (-0.2 fWAR)
Pham: 235 (-0.2 fWAR)
Duran: 223 (-0.3 fWAR)
Plawecki: 175 (-0.4 fWAR)
Hosmer: 50 (-0.1 fWAR)
Yolmer: 44 (-0.4 fWAR)
Downs: 41 (-0.3 fWAR)
Almonte: 37 (-0.1 fWAR)
Shaw: 19 (-0.6 fWAR)
Arauz: 12 (-0.2 fWAR)

Every single one of those guys is gone now with the exception of Dalbec & Duran, & neither seem to be a significant part of the current plan.

The Red Sox can upgrade significantly just by replacing those at bats those players with competent players.

These are the hitters the Red Sox have added that should be replacing many of those at bats (all #s for '22 except Yoshida for obvious reasons):

Yoshida: projected 3.6 fWAR
Turner: 2.4 fWAR
Duvall: 0.9 fWAR (2.7 fWAR in '21)
Alfaro: 0.5 fWAR
Tapia: 0.3 fWAR
Allen: 0.2. fWAR
Crook: -0.1 fWAR (in 9 career PAs)
Goodrum: -0.3 fWAR (but in only 45 PAs & put up 1.8, 2.7, 0.6 & 0.7 the 4 years before)

& a big internal addition is Casas who put up 0.3 fWAR in only 95 PAs (which is a pace of about 2.2 fWAR over the course of a season, despite hitting under .200). Others include McGuire (1.3 fWAR in 108 PAs), potentially Wong (0.1 fWAR in 56 PAs), hopefully Valdez, & hopefully a SS free agent.

So yes, they need to replace the following:

X: 6.1 fWAR
Vaz: 1.7 fWAR
JD: 1.0 fWAR
Jaylin: 0.1 fWAR

& whatever of Story they get less than the 396 PAs & 2.4 fWAR they get from Story this year.

The 4 positive guys they definitely need to replace totaled 1,572 PAs & 8.9 fWAR, so total, not including Story, they need to replace 3,335 PAs of 5.7 fWAR baseball.

3,335 PAs of '22 Raimel Tapia would be 2.3 fWAR.
3,335 PAs of '21 Raimel Tapia would be 4.4 fWAR.
3,335 PAs of '23 Steamer Tapia would be 5.9 fWAR.

& I don't even think Tapia is good or deserved a major league contract. The point is, though, baseline competence matters. & I think finding same, while holding on to prospects for the next big window, is the plan. Same old plan, every day. Just a matter of how to enact it.
 

pjr

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
780
Quincy,MA
It'd be great if people could put their made-up trade ideas in this thread:
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/gitter-done-theo-lets-put-all-our-dumb-i-mean-brilliant-trade-suggestions-in-this-thread.37918/

Instead of in the "Rumors" thread.

Everyone loves to suggest trades, and that's great, but seems to me a fan-suggested trade idea is quite different than a rumored trade or signing.

Since this is a rumors thread, I'll include one in this post:
Red Sox have recieved "significant" trade interest in Tanner Houck:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/red-sox-trade-rumors-tanner-houck.html



(apologies if this has already been posted here, it's hard to keep track, which is why I made this post in the first place.)
I agree but it's too late for that.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
7,877
Boston, MA
Calling him "our best outfielder" seems charitable to Verdugo, but he's a decent player. In his 25-26 seasons, he's put up a 105 wRC+, which is nothing special. But it looks like he's been dinged a bit hitting in Fenway, which diminishes his power. He's "lost" about 9-10 HRs over the last two years to park dimensions, so it's reasonable to think he's better than he's shown.

We'll see what the final configuration is but I'd be comfortable with some strategic deployment of Duvall/Refsnyder/Tapia putting up comparable value to Verdugo in right field. Those three guys combined hit .255/.304/.408 last year (which includes Duvall playing through a wrist injury), compared with Verdugo who hit .280/.328/.405.

Again, my personal theory is that they want to see if Refsnyder can do in 350-400 PAs what he did in 175 last year.
So who's better? Maybe Yoshida, but we don't have evidence of that. Verdugo is a better than average hitter who was decent defensively other than last year. And he's going to be 27 versus Refsnyder who will be 32.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,170
View: https://twitter.com/pgammo/status/1616034787386396675?s=20&t=J3FsfUT2PzTOd9dovoEiSg


The Casas bit is a little interesting but could mean anything.

Chaim: So… Bryan Reynolds?
Cherington: We like Casas, Bello, and Bleis.
Chaim: Cool. Keep in touch.
I know Pittsburgh was interested in top of the rotation pitching prospects for Reynolds, and Bello would be an absolute non-starter in trade discussions as far as I'm concerned, however...

Baseball Trade Values shows Casas and Bleis for Reynolds as pretty much an exactly even swap. I don't think that Pittsburgh would take that offer, but Reynolds is exactly the kind of player I'd make Casas available for. Just entering his prime (will be 28 next season), he still has 3 years of control left. Which both means a) he'd be under control for the initial part of the 2025+ window and b) he'd ostensibly at least be open to a contract extension at this point in time.

I'm not sure what he's looking for, but I think one could use the Brandon Nimmo deal as a pretty reasonable comp (8/$162m) and something Reynolds would take if offered to him right now. That would be "only" around a $20m AAV hit, and would cover his seasons ups through age 35, so you'd probably be only looking at a couple of seasons of "non-prime" control.

A switch hitter with a 127 career OPS and no huge split (.856 career OPS against RHP; .808 career OPS against LHP), at that age whom would probably take $160m guaranteed 3 years before free agency while only needing to lock him up until age 35 is EXACTLY the kind of player I'd actively try to trade Casas for. But I don't think Pittsburgh would take Casas and Bleis for Reynolds, regardless of the trade simulator.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,673
Maine
Casas and Bleis for Reynolds? Hell to the no.
Bingo. Reynolds is a very good player. He's not the guy that this team should be trading two of their top prospects for, though. Not at this stage in the team's build, anyway. It's robbing Peter (1B) to pay Paul (OF). I don't think it's a net gain for the 2023 or 2024 seasons. If the idea is he's a good fit for the 2025+ "window", I'd rather wait it out and snag him in free agency or trade for his last year or two of pre-arb control when the acquisition cost might be lower and the prospect well is hopefully a bit deeper.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
4,711
Everything about this proposal sounds terrible to me. Casas had a 120 wrc+ last year to Reynolds's 125, and gives us 6 years of control in an actual position of need. I wouldn't even want to swap the two of them straight up, let alone add the guy everyone's saying is our best prospect since Betts.

Reynolds also had declines across the board after what looks an awful lot like a career year in 2021.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,170
Where are you playing Reynolds if you get him? He had the worst DRS number of any CF last year, RF maybe?

https://fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard
Exactly. He'd be playing RF alongside either Hernandez / Rafaela.

Bingo. Reynolds is a very good player. He's not the guy that this team should be trading two of their top prospects for, though. Not at this stage in the team's build, anyway. It's robbing Peter (1B) to pay Paul (OF). I don't think it's a net gain for the 2023 or 2024 seasons. If the idea is he's a good fit for the 2025+ "window", I'd rather wait it out and snag him in free agency or trade for his last year or two of pre-arb control when the acquisition cost might be lower and the prospect well is hopefully a bit deeper.
Fair enough, but my counter point to that would be if Casas (as a top prospect) has such a glaring hole that we're already talking about needing Bobby Dalbec around to platoon for him at a position that is not a high defensive value, maybe that is a good time to sell high on that prospect if you can.

This isn't meant as a "dump Casas" post, more that I think Reynolds is a really good player whom would be even better in a hitter's park away from Pittsburgh. Of other names we've been tied to this off-season or even discussed on these threads (Lopez, TRogers, Wendle, Rojas, Kim, Arraez, Adames and Yelich) there is no way I'm trading Casas for any of them.

Offensively, Reynolds is a good bit better than Bogaerts in terms of value (Reynolds is a career 126 wRC+ / 127 OPS+ player), Bogaerts is at 118 wRC+ and 117 OPS+. I think he'd be a core bat that you could bank on for the next 8 years, and I think we desperately need that.

If someone thinks that there is something about Casas which means he's going to improve fundamentally on his lack of ability to hit LHP in the majors that he wasn't able to do in the high minors, then of course you keep him. But Reynolds doesn't exhibit that kind of split.

Again, I'm not saying "dump Casas", far from it. But if you could land (and in theory) extend a 28 year old with that profile at the expense of a prospect whom - at least to this point - has demonstrated no ability to hit same handed pitching at the AA, AAA or (small sample, obviously) major league level, I'd do it. This is more a "I think Reynolds is really good" move than a knock on Casas, to be clear.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
Exactly. He'd be playing RF alongside either Hernandez / Rafaela.



Fair enough, but my counter point to that would be if Casas (as a top prospect) has such a glaring hole that we're already talking about needing Bobby Dalbec around to platoon for him at a position that is not a high defensive value, maybe that is a good time to sell high on that prospect if you can.

This isn't meant as a "dump Casas" post, more that I think Reynolds is a really good player whom would be even better in a hitter's park away from Pittsburgh. Of other names we've been tied to this off-season or even discussed on these threads (Lopez, TRogers, Wendle, Rojas, Kim, Arraez, Adames and Yelich) there is no way I'm trading Casas for any of them.

Offensively, Reynolds is a good bit better than Bogaerts in terms of value (Reynolds is a career 126 wRC+ / 127 OPS+ player), Bogaerts is at 118 wRC+ and 117 OPS+. I think he'd be a core bat that you could bank on for the next 8 years, and I think we desperately need that.

If someone thinks that there is something about Casas which means he's going to improve fundamentally on his lack of ability to hit LHP in the majors that he wasn't able to do in the high minors, then of course you keep him. But Reynolds doesn't exhibit that kind of split.

Again, I'm not saying "dump Casas", far from it. But if you could land (and in theory) extend a 28 year old with that profile at the expense of a prospect whom - at least to this point - has demonstrated no ability to hit same handed pitching at the AA, AAA or (small sample, obviously) major league level, I'd do it. This is more a "I think Reynolds is really good" move than a knock on Casas, to be clear.
I’m not worried about Casas vs. southpaws. Left-handed hitters with excellent plate discipline like him can still be valuable against them even with neutralized slugging numbers because the OBP is just so useful. Kyle Schwarber is another guy like this.

Casas walked in 24% of his 25 PAs against lefties last year. SSS, but if he can do half that rate, he’ll be fine. I think the shift ban probably gives him back another 10 points of batting average. We’ll see.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
4,711
This isn't meant as a "dump Casas" post, more that I think Reynolds is a really good player whom would be even better in a hitter's park away from Pittsburgh.
I'm not sure what it means exactly (if anything), but statcast has Fenway suppressing 25% of his HR last year.

(grammar note: "whom" refers to the object of a sentence, use "who" when you're talking about the subject; Reynolds in this case)
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2022
1,170
I’m not worried about Casas vs. southpaws. Left-handed hitters with excellent plate discipline like him can still be valuable against them even with neutralized slugging numbers because the OBP is just so useful. Kyle Schwarber is another guy like this.

Casas walked in 24% of his 25 PAs against lefties last year. SSS, but if he can do half that rate, he’ll be fine. I think the shift ban probably gives him back another 10 points of batting average. We’ll see.
Schwarber was actually a player I looked up as a hopeful comp on Casas before posting, in that he too has a profile of plus discipline but with a fairly large split between opposite handed and same handed pitching.

However Schwarber was an absolute monster in his exposure to advanced minor league pitching with a .320/.438/.579/1.017 line in AA and .337/432/.663/1.096 line in AAA as opposed to .284/.395/.484/.879 lime AA and .269/.382/.482/.863 line in AAA.

Obviously there is the difference in leagues and venues, especially with Schwarber playing in the PCL - and the difference in type of ball between 2015 vs 2021 and 2022. Even so, those stats against advanced minor league pitching give a fairly significant edge to Schwarber.

Again, I like Casas, and by and large I don’t think trading him would be wise. I just happen to value Reynolds more than others seem to, so it’s more an “I really like Reynolds“ position.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,278
Schwarber was actually a player I looked up as a hopeful comp on Casas before posting, in that he too has a profile of plus discipline but with a fairly large split between opposite handed and same handed pitching.

However Schwarber was an absolute monster in his exposure to advanced minor league pitching with a .320/.438/.579/1.017 line in AA and .337/432/.663/1.096 line in AAA as opposed to .284/.395/.484/.879 lime AA and .269/.382/.482/.863 line in AAA.

Obviously there is the difference in leagues and venues, especially with Schwarber playing in the PCL - and the difference in type of ball between 2015 vs 2021 and 2022. Even so, those stats against advanced minor league pitching give a fairly significant edge to Schwarber.

Again, I like Casas, and by and large I don’t think trading him would be wise. I just happen to value Reynolds more than others seem to, so it’s more an “I really like Reynolds“ position.
The formatting of my post got all messed up, so I'll just post the links & a couple summary stats...but Schwarber was awful in his 1st ML season at age 22 against lefties & crushed righties, while Casas was pretty good against righties & adequate against lefties in a smaller sample size (due to the fact Casas got injured that season, while Schwarber missed almost his entire 2nd season due to injury).

Anyway, here's Schwarber

v. Righties: 212 PAs, 160 wRC+, 162 sOPS+ 23.6% K-rate, 14.6% BB rate
v. Lefties: 61 PAs, 30 wRC+, 34 sOPS+, 44.3% K-rate, 8.2% BB rate

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=schwaky01&year=2015&t=b
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-schwarber/16478/splits?position=OF&season=2015

& here's Casas's 2022 platoon splits in his 1st season in the Majors at 22...

v. Righties: 70 PAs, 129 wRC+, 131 sOPS+, 22.9% K-rate, 18.6% BB-rate
v. Lefties: 25 PAs, 94 wRC+, 80 sOPS+, 28.0% K-rate, 24.0% BB-rate

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=casastr01&year=2022&t=b
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/triston-casas/22514/splits?position=1B&season=2022

ETA: ugg formatting, fixed
 
Last edited:

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,278
The first year Schwarber had a wRC+ against lefties as high as Casas's 94 last year? 2021 (& he matched the 94 in '22).

Also, Schwarber has a -49 OAA for his career, whereas thus far Casas is a +1.
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,084
Time and time again people fail to properly discount Casas age on this message board.

He’s a child who has a background in changing his approach and studying hitting. He will hit lefties.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,405
Time and time again people fail to properly discount Casas age on this message board.

He’s a child who has a background in changing his approach and studying hitting. He will hit lefties.
To add on to this, it's been remarked upon a few times that the gap between AAA and MLB has arguably never been wider - just ask Spencer Torkelson and the Detroit Tigers. It's true that you'll still occasionally see someone like Michael Harris II or Corbin Carroll with a strong performance right out of the gate, but, increasingly, they're the exceptions. For example, the two biggest rookie stars in the AL class last year, Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman, both struggled for their respective first months or so, and put up worse numbers than Casas did. Doesn't necessarily mean anything for 2023, but I think people are acting like Casas was a disappointment, and I don't totally understand it.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,278
To add on to this, it's been remarked upon a few times that the gap between AAA and MLB has arguably never been wider - just ask Spencer Torkelson and the Detroit Tigers. It's true that you'll still occasionally see someone like Michael Harris II or Corbin Carroll with a strong performance right out of the gate, but, increasingly, they're the exceptions. For example, the two biggest rookie stars in the AL class last year, Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman, both struggled for their respective first months or so, and put up worse numbers than Casas did. Doesn't necessarily mean anything for 2023, but I think people are acting like Casas was a disappointment, and I don't totally understand it.
He had a .197 batting average. If that's a metric that still means something to people in today's day & age, it makes sense. But it's kind of silly.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
7,877
Boston, MA
To add on to this, it's been remarked upon a few times that the gap between AAA and MLB has arguably never been wider - just ask Spencer Torkelson and the Detroit Tigers. It's true that you'll still occasionally see someone like Michael Harris II or Corbin Carroll with a strong performance right out of the gate, but, increasingly, they're the exceptions. For example, the two biggest rookie stars in the AL class last year, Julio Rodriguez and Adley Rutschman, both struggled for their respective first months or so, and put up worse numbers than Casas did. Doesn't necessarily mean anything for 2023, but I think people are acting like Casas was a disappointment, and I don't totally understand it.
He couldn't hit lefties in the minors, either. He might figure it out, but his inability to do it in the majors isn't indicative of some big gap between leagues.
 

BornToRun

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 4, 2011
17,312
He had a .197 batting average. If that's a metric that still means something to people in today's day & age, it makes sense. But it's kind of silly.
Honestly, the fact that he on-based over .350 while not cracking the mendoza line makes me more excited about his future.