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HomeRunBaker

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Keep this train rollin!

The one game that jumps out at me on the overnight is Houston +2 to fade the final game of Orlando’s successful mini-trip. The Magic have exerted a ton of emotion this week with the two Celtics wins and coming from behind in a divisional game in Atlanta which was a 48 min grind only to lose at the buzzer. It should catch up with them here against a lottery team that they don’t figure to be getting up to play.

Big slate tomorrow but unlike todays there doesn’t appear to be a lot out there. I’ll post if I have something good though.
 
HomeRunBaker

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The other game I’m playing at around 60% of the Houston play is Indiana +10.

I had been waiting to begin fading Boston once TL returned as it’s a culture change in how they will be playing at a slower pace and this takes time to adjust. The timing was perfect on the return trip home in the Orlando games and I expect the sluggish offense to continue along with these adjustments. Indiana has been an overachiever and has performed in the road dog role so a double digit win with all these factors in play are a tough ask for Boston.
 
Mloaf71

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Good stuff as always.

In a similar vane I was thinking Celtics TT U121.5.
 
Mloaf71

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Indiana play and Celtics TT worked out great.

For the record, I am never doubting the Magic again :rolleyes:
 
HomeRunBaker

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Played Over 230 Wizards/Jazz…..and Wizards +6.5 for 50% of the primary Over play and 1H Over 112.5 for 50% of primary Over play.

I don’t expect much resistance defensively by either team or a whole lot of offensive sets. Transition, secondary transition, quick one pass and shoots. Will look to play live if pace is there (be shocked if it isn’t) and early scoring is off to get better number.
 
Mloaf71

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Another win!

Mind explaining this one…I knew Jazz had one of(maybe the worst) Ds against PNR guards and Beal should have a good night. Why the confidence the Jazz could score enough to push the total over?
 
HomeRunBaker

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Mloaf71 said:
Another win!

Mind explaining this one…I knew Jazz had one of(maybe the worst) Ds against PNR guards and Beal should have a good night. Why the confidence the Jazz could score enough to push the total over?
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Everything here pointed toward the teams pace and offense overperforming the market. In order of strength.

1. Porzingis and Olynyk were out so each team is replacing a big who slows them down while being forced to play a lot of smallball due to a lack of big depth on both sides. More smalls, faster pace and both teams have enough scoring against these matador defenses without them.

2. I liked how the pace matched up with Utah being at home where they play faster against a team in the Wizards who tend to not dictate tempo and will trade baskets especially with Beal back in the lineup.

3. They played in DC earlier in the year with both Olynyk and Porzingis in the lineup, without Beal, and put up 233. Pace was also above average even with the two bigs and the Jazz playing on the road where their pace is slower.

The game was trending over for nearly all of it but tonight the deep bench crew weren’t trying to put up their numbers instead just jacking up 3’s and missing. That would have been a terrible beat.
 
HomeRunBaker

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So much to write up on this one and one more I’m looking at later. I’ll try and get back here prior to game time. I played these equally……

* Under 229.5 Celtics/Wolves
* Celtics TT Under 119.5
 
Mloaf71

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HomeRunBaker said:
Everything here pointed toward the teams pace and offense overperforming the market. In order of strength.

1. Porzingis and Olynyk were out so each team is replacing a big who slows them down while being forced to play a lot of smallball due to a lack of big depth on both sides. More smalls, faster pace and both teams have enough scoring against these matador defenses without them.

2. I liked how the pace matched up with Utah being at home where they play faster against a team in the Wizards who tend to not dictate tempo and will trade baskets especially with Beal back in the lineup.

3. They played in DC earlier in the year with both Olynyk and Porzingis in the lineup, without Beal, and put up 233. Pace was also above average even with the two bigs and the Jazz playing on the road where their pace is slower.

The game was trending over for nearly all of it but tonight the deep bench crew weren’t trying to put up their numbers instead just jacking up 3’s and missing. That would have been a terrible beat.
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Thanks for this. I was sitting here watching the 4th Q, when the game got out of hand, I was thinking here we go again, another bad bench beat but that big 2nd Q had built up enough buffer to get us there.
 
HomeRunBaker

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HomeRunBaker said:
So much to write up on this one and one more I’m looking at later. I’ll try and get back here prior to game time. I played these equally……

* Under 229.5 Celtics/Wolves
* Celtics TT Under 119.5
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Can’t get any finalizations on several game-time decisions but going ahead and playing it anyway…..

* Pacers +6

Heat, much like Utah last night, have been awful ATS as home favorites. Pacers continue to be undervalued.

One more I’ll be looking at late is Portland. Been out all day finishing up holiday stuff so I’ll decide late.

Edit: The late TL scratch really hurts us here. Changes things and I got out of 2/3 of the play. I don’t dislike the play but it’s more or less neutral with this lineup change. Usually I get alerts on questionable guys being in/out earlier in the day but not this time. Late and unexpected.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Perfect example of why you can only bet live in-game during timeouts/end of quarters. :07 on the clock in 1H…..television feed is at 1:23
 
HomeRunBaker

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This team plays so free and easy without TL and 2BIGZ in the lineup.

Playing two late ones….

* Wizards +7.5
* Over 226.5 Suns/Grizz

Wiz have been competing hard since Beal returned and Kings paying a big number feels wrong. Suns/Grizz should be a shot making fest and good pace with their lineups.
 
HomeRunBaker

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Light-Tower-Power said:
I didn’t play tonight but man, I feel for you on this one. Brutal.
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BigSoxFan said:
Emotional hedge of a Celtics win, at least
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Read post below. I bought out of most of the play when TL was ruled out. I actually almost got a perfect middle as I played back at 228 and 118.5

There is a clear change in how the Celtics offense functions with and without TL on the floor. This has been a big factor in cashing all those Celtics Unders the past week. I just got caught in a trap today.
 
RG33

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HomeRunBaker said:
Read post below. I bought out of most of the play when TL was ruled out. I actually almost got a perfect middle as I played back at 228 and 118.5

There is a clear change in how the Celtics offense functions with and without TL on the floor. This has been a big factor in cashing all those Celtics Unders the past week. I just got caught in a trap today.
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I skipped it as well. Got the Pacers at +6 and Wizards at +8.5 though. Went hard on Hornets ML too, so fingers crossed. BOOM!
 
HomeRunBaker

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RG33 said:
I skipped it as well. Got the Pacers at +6 and Wizards at +8.5 though. Went hard on Hornets ML too, so fingers crossed. BOOM!
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I’m due to be on the right side of these garbage time end games and this Suns/Grizz total going over after a 38-pt 2Q would qualify. This 4Q should be up and down stat padding at its finest.

* Played the Noon Under 218 on 12/25 Sixers/Knicks. As soon as the 1H is posted I’ll likely grab some Under there too.
 
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zak1013

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Any idea what’s going on with the total for the lakers/mavs tomorrow? It’s gone up almost 5 points over the past day or so. Is it just driven by AD remaining out?
 
HomeRunBaker

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zak1013 said:
Any idea what’s going on with the total for the lakers/mavs tomorrow? It’s gone up almost 5 points over the past day or so. Is it just driven by AD remaining out?
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Lakers have given up 130, 134 and 134 without much effort their last 3 games. It’s too bad bc Dallas is a great Under team and they have played a bunch of games near the 200 mark the past few years. I can’t touch this one pregame.
 
HomeRunBaker

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HomeRunBaker said:
* Played the Noon Under 218 on 12/25 Sixers/Knicks. As soon as the 1H is posted I’ll likely grab some Under there too.
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Merry Crimmas!!!!

Hope you got your 218 as it’s now 214.5

I also played the Grizz and watching the Lakers Tota continue to skyrocket to 233 is fascinating. I don’t agree or dissgeee just seeing it take off.
 
HomeRunBaker

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zak1013 said:
Any idea what’s going on with the total for the lakers/mavs tomorrow? It’s gone up almost 5 points over the past day or so. Is it just driven by AD remaining out?
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6-31 on threes midway through 2Q…….

I sure wish they shot 6-31 in the first game.
 
zak1013

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Really interesting to me that all three of the day games today are easily going over. Fair to say the lines today are just sharper given the nat’l attention compared with your average weekend matinee? Or just bad variance?
 
wonderland

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Maybe since it’s a national broadcast on a premiere day for the league, teams come in with more focus than your ordinary Sunday afternoon tilt?
 
HomeRunBaker

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Got two real good ones for tonight. One is better than the other, I’ll call them the Jayson and the Jaylen.

The Jayson is……Cleveland -2

Cavs have been a dominant 16-3 at home this year and have taken care of business in every big game (C’s, Sixers, Bucks, Mia & Atl when they thought they were good). While the Nets have gotten things together recently they haven’t really been tested on the road with their wins coming against .500 & worse teams. I still question their chemistry under pressure and winning this game on the road is as tough a spot as they will see all year.

My number is 5.5 here and can sprinkle a correlated parlay with the Under as the Cavs shouod dictate tempo with the Nets totals still being priced incorrectly if you feel inclined.


The Jaylen……Minnesota +1.5

I like this one if I have a straight line to the ticket window but not as much if I have to dribble through traffic to get there. (Still got bad jokes)

Heat are banged up with no Bam tonight and if Butler plays he’s got the knee going on. I don’t think the Heat have enough offense to keep up with a motivated Wolves team looking to get a road win on this trip after the Celtics 4Q collapse. The caveat is of course if Herro goes off for 50 but I’ll tip my cap if he does. Great spot for Minnesota to show up ready tonight.
 
RG33

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HomeRunBaker said:
Got two real good ones for tonight. One is better than the other, I’ll call them the Jayson and the Jaylen.

The Jayson is……Cleveland -2

Cavs have been a dominant 16-3 at home this year and have taken care of business in every big game (C’s, Sixers, Bucks, Mia & Atl when they thought they were good). While the Nets have gotten things together recently they haven’t really been tested on the road with their wins coming against .500 & worse teams. I still question their chemistry under pressure and winning this game on the road is as tough a spot as they will see all year.

My number is 5.5 here and can sprinkle a correlated parlay with the Under as the Cavs shouod dictate tempo with the Nets totals still being priced incorrectly if you feel inclined.


The Jaylen……Minnesota +1.5

I like this one if I have a straight line to the ticket window but not as much if I have to dribble through traffic to get there. (Still got bad jokes)

Heat are banged up with no Bam tonight and if Butler plays he’s got the knee going on. I don’t think the Heat have enough offense to keep up with a motivated Wolves team looking to get a road win on this trip after the Celtics 4Q collapse. The caveat is of course if Herro goes off for 50 but I’ll tip my cap if he does. Great spot for Minnesota to show up ready tonight.
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Giant THUD.

Neither team was ever really in it (I know you prefer this over a bad beat, I hate it). Realizing KAT wasn’t playing after I placed my wager resulted in an audible “Fucking HRB!”

LOL. All is good in love and degeneracy . . .

Current situation:

CB1B8158-4CAC-4A6A-A7FB-8B0F46D34025.jpeg
 
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Red Averages

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Finally in a state where I can bet NBA for the next week…

I’m on:
- Under 235.5 LAL/ ORL
- LAC +4.5 @ Tor
- OKC -7 vs SAS
 
Mloaf71

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Red Averages said:
Finally in a state where I can bet NBA for the next week…

I’m on:
- Under 235.5 LAL/ ORL
- LAC +4.5 @ Tor
- OKC -7 vs SAS
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Solid calls. I was in at U236.5. The lack of D in the 4th was brutal, layup lines on both ends and still almost hit if it wasn’t for the last minute barrage of 3s.

offenses across the league have been on fire this week.
 
HomeRunBaker

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Mloaf71 said:
offenses across the league have been on fire this week.
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20 NBA teams played tonight and not a single one was held to double digits. Of those 20 teams, 16 of them reached 110 pts……that may be an NBA single night record for most teams hitting that number.

The only higher scoring seasons in league history were all those years in the ‘60’s but they only had 8-10 teams back then.

Edit: Dec 7th this year saw 17 teams hit 110 but there were 11 games that night. There was another 10-game slate in Dec that had 15 teams get there.

Edit2: There are 8 games tomorrow and all 8 could close with totals of 230+. Nuts!
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Played Over 224 Lakers/Heat. LA coming off a road win last night should offer the Heat a layup line regardless of who they dress for this one. It is already 225 within 15 min and should continue higher so get it quick if you want to get it at all.
 
HomeRunBaker

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If you didn’t get it even at 225 it’s too late. Up to 227.5 now. You’re on to Cincinnati.
 
Red Averages

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I’m late to post but on Heat, Heat + over 226, Wizards ML, Wizards +2, Pistons money line, Sac -1, Sac-1 + under, Bulls money line, Bulls +2.5. Lot of action
 
BigSoxFan

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Did Durant/Kyrie to both hit 25 points for like +140. Durant hits shot with like 1 min left to win it. Propping’ ain’t easy…
 
HomeRunBaker

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Being in poker game until 3:30am prevented me from digging in too deep last night/this morning. Only game that jumped off page tonight is a Portland -2 and aside from glancing at injury updates/alerts that’s going to be the extent of my NBA work today. Happy pre-New Years Eve!!
 
Green (Tongued) Monster

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HomeRunBaker said:
Being in poker game until 3:30am prevented me from digging in too deep last night/this morning. Only game that jumped off page tonight is a Portland -2 and aside from glancing at injury updates/alerts that’s going to be the extent of my NBA work today. Happy pre-New Years Eve!!
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I know you like road teams on the first night of a road trip, but any other angles on this one? Warriors are 15-2 at home, including 3-0 without Curry, which gives me pause.
 
HomeRunBaker

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Green (Tongued) Monster said:
I know you like road teams on the first night of a road trip, but any other angles on this one? Warriors are 15-2 at home, including 3-0 without Curry, which gives me pause.
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Portland has a big rest/scheduling adv here which is a primary factor. 3 days off vs the Warriors who are playing their 4th game in 6 nights while exerting more energy than accustomed without Curry. I also believe what I call “home fatigue” where a team can exhale and lose focus without their customary travel. Coming off 3 straight wins in the middle of an 8-game homestand this is certainly a potential “dud” spot for them.
 
HomeRunBaker

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Gobert a late scratch for Minny. This should increase pace and scoring efficiency in the paint. I played Over 229 here pretty good.
 
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