Justin Turner declines option (11.03.23 update)

Red(s)HawksFan

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Turner has only started 14 games at 1B in his career. That's out of nearly 900 starts. He also hasn't played an inning there since 2016. I wouldn't pencil him in as much more than emergency option there. I think he'll primarily DH and give Devers some days off in the field.

So, a tiny bit more useful than JD. Offensively, they're pretty much a wash. Turner is trending downwards, and so is JD. JD was marginally better last season, but he looked cooked at the end of the season, so who knows who's the better bat in 2023.
Turner did not look cooked at the end of 2022, so that would seem to bode well for him in 2023.

Post-ASB:
Turner: .319/.386/.503/.889, 44 games, 184 PA
JDM: .233/.301/.400/.701, 58 games, 240 PA
 

Harry Hooper

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"numbers from June 30 onward" Selective stats, rather than July 1st onward.
 

nvalvo

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"numbers from June 30 onward" Selective stats, rather than July 1st onward.
I get what you're saying, but the result is the basically same however you slice it in this case, because his best three months were his last three.

OPS by month: .525 .773 .680 1.030 .815 .946.
 

BravesField

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Could be Bloom is receiving offers for Devers, and some maybe too good to pass up. Turner as DH if Devers stays and 3B if Devers is traded.
 

YTF

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Turner has only started 14 games at 1B in his career. That's out of nearly 900 starts. He also hasn't played an inning there since 2016. I wouldn't pencil him in as much more than emergency option there. I think he'll primarily DH and give Devers some days off in the field.

So, a tiny bit more useful than JD. Offensively, they're pretty much a wash. Turner is trending downwards, and so is JD. JD was marginally better last season, but he looked cooked at the end of the season, so who knows who's the better bat in 2023.
I'm hoping that a full off season and a full spring training to get better acquainted with a first baseman's mitt as well as his experience as an infielder might allow him to become a better option at first than a handful of guys who have recently tried to learn the position on the fly.
 

Sprowl

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So Bobby D is gone
Not necessarily - see below.

If Arroyo is the starter, we should be prepared for a lot of David Hamilton.
Or a lot of Enmanuel Valdez at 2B.

Have to wonder if Sox preferred Turner over Brantley because he can play 3B for if/when they trade Devers
Could be Bloom is receiving offers for Devers, and some maybe too good to pass up. Turner as DH if Devers stays and 3B if Devers is traded.
That is certainly what leapt to my mind upon reading the thread title: Devers is gone, Turner and Dalbec play 3B, 2023 is a pontoon bridge season (and pontoons sometimes sink).
 

The Gray Eagle

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Turner is OLD, that's the only issue with this signing. If he doesn't hit the wall and crater, this should be a fine addition.

Turner is a Gritty guy:
59072


He's like an Animal out there:

59071
 

Ganthem

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Nice signing. And based on how people were carrying on I thought the off season was over.
 

Sec42R37S21

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The Sox made the ALCS in 2021 with Bogaerts at SS and a combination of Kiké Hernández, Christian Arroyo, Marwin Gonzalez, Michael Chavis and Jose Iglesias at 2B. It’s entirely possible that 2023’s (current) projection of Story at SS and Arroyo/Valdez/TBA is as good or better than that.

And there’s other stuff to come.
And the Titanic had passengers who still thought they would make it to NYC while taking on water.
 

radsoxfan

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circus catch

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Fangraphs Steamer Projections 2023 wRC+

124 Casas
122 Bogaerts
115 Turner
113 JD

And then there's Yoshida. And the bullpen is better. Sign Eovaldi and maybe another starter, and we're going to be ok.
 

BaseballJones

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Good signing, as long as he doesn't run smack into the age-wall. I'm not sure what it means that the three biggest acquisitions this offseason are 35-plus, but it's worth noting
Uh except Yoshida.

Edit: sorry…already addressed
 

mikcou

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Like this - more expensive than I would have thought especially after the structure of the option, but I think he's preferable to JD or Eric Hosmer who can slot in as a primary DH, but also play 1B and 3B to give guys rest.

Unlike others, I dont think this means the end of Bobby Dalbec - they still have four bench spots and a RHH who can hit lefties and play first and third is pretty valuable to a team that is as lefty heavy as the Sox are. If Enmanuel Valdez (or other acquisition) beats him out so much the better.
 

chawson

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Fangraphs Steamer Projections 2023 wRC+

124 Casas
122 Bogaerts
115 Turner
113 JD

And then there's Yoshida. And the bullpen is better. Sign Eovaldi and maybe another starter, and we're going to be ok.
113 Verdugo
109 Refsnyder
100 Pham
76 Bradley Jr.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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He’s a good hitter, and it’s a fine deal. It doesn’t change my opinion one iota about the off-season because Turner is way too old to be part of the core, and I don’t think the roster is close to good enough (and I don’t think we’ll trade what is necessary to make it good enough) to win a title.

Yes, I think Bloom is absolutely trying to patch together enough old dudes to make the last WC spot. Which when your roster lacks top end talent, is generally not the way to win titles, so I’d far rather have had one top end player than spend $8m on Martin, $2m on Rodriguez, $11m on Turner and $10m on SegurAndrus but that’s not the TB or Oakland model (whom to date combined have won nothing) so it’s not what we’re doing.

My hope is Turner hits well enough that he’s valuable in July and we buy another prospect for him. My fear is that this is another team that is “within a handful of games of the playoffs” in July - but not good enough to invest in - so we hold all these old dudes in what ends up another wasted season.

To be clear, I understand what they’re doing. I agree he is an improvement to a terrible line up. I think he (and a likely addition of a similar MI and a similar SP) get us closer being a middler - and I don’t at all like the plan. I’m in no way arguing it can’t produce a wild card team, I don’t think it’s close to a title team and I don’t think it moves us closer to one in the future - was hoping this off season we’d retain / start to build a core. Turner is a nice add - but he doesn’t help at all with that.

However, for what we’re apparently trying to do (get the last WC) he’s an improvement.
 
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JM3

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Bretty Baty's OPS was .695 against righties last year & .222 against lefties. Just saying.

(It was .955 to .742 in the minors last year in an actual reasonable sample size)
 

Pedro's Complaint

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We have nearly as many Dodgers players (Hernandez, Jansen, Turner) as Red Sox players (Barnes, Brasier, Devers, Sale) from the 2018 World Series on the current roster.
 

Benj4ever

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Nov 21, 2022
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A player opt-out for someone 38 years old? OK whatever if he exercises it.
Whenever you have a chance to receive a financial option for free, you take it, because options have value. It's basic finance.

I would rather have had Josh Bell, but Turner's not a bad consolation prize.
 

billy ashley

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Ort seems like the most likely person to be DFA's. Though I have to think there are potential trades in the work.

Right now the OF defense projects to be pretty ghastly.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I’d imagine Ort will go, he’s really redundant with Mills. Hernandez seems in jeopardy too. After that it starts getting more difficult- a trade of one or two pitchers from the Seabold, Winckowski, Crawford, Murphy, Mata group seems likely. Duran and Dalbec probably don’t last much longer.
 

billy ashley

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Ghastlier than the hope and a prayer starting rotation?

Yes. I think there are reasons to be optimistic for the rotation. Is there significant risk? Sure. But I really like Whitlock and Bello. If Sale gives them anything there is some upside, there.

Right now the Outfield Defense features a bad left fielder playing right, a bad left fielder playing left, and a really good centerfielder who has trouble staying on the field. That defense is going to be brutal. Refsnyder was an awesome find last season and I'm excited to have him as the fourth outfielder, but it's not like he's a great defender, either.

I actually like Verdugo as a player, but it's pretty clear that they need to trade him and replace him with someone who can play RF at Fenway.