Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

Minneapolis Millers

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Anyone who thinks Houck is a selfish bonehead really wouldn’t enjoy the Andrelton Simmons Experience.

Rather sign Andrus. Have we been rumored in on any of the 2d tier SS?
 

Seels

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Everything I hear Bloom say leads me to believe they are moving toward the ATL model. They value and pay players in their pre-arb through prime years. The difference is that Dombrowski cleaned out the farm system while ATL was stacked. ATL hasn't coughed up many contracts for their stars whose new contracts would cover many post-prime years. If you have a farm system in place that can draft and develop the talent you are set. Feels like Bloom is trying to field what looks like a "competitive team" until the farm is ready. This might be a rough 2 or 3 years if this is the plan.
You know the difference is that the ATL model gives their players contracts. Ours ships them out for losers like Jeter Downs.
 

GB5

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I know we know Iglesias for the glove but I have seen multiple references to him at his age being below average defensively. Can someone help with some stats? Thank you.
 
Well from what I remember they had to put one of the two in the deal for Sale. Moncada had one very good year where he hit over 300 with 25 bombs but he’s struggled since, hit 212 last year and has had more injury issues then Beni, who just cashed in and is coming off a all star season. I just dont think Dombrowski left the farm in bad shape as people are making out was more my point. Feels like the top 30 is 70/30 him vs Bloom.
Both Kopech and Moncada were in the Sale trade, yeah. Moncada was very good from 2019-2021. The year you're thinking of was 2019 when he put up 5.5 fWAR, but he also had a 4 win year in 2021. If you prorate 2020 to a full season his 2020 wasn't bad either, 3 fWAR. His 2017, 2018, and 2022 were all mediocre. Benintendi had a great year in 2018 and a solid one in 2022 but otherwise has been middling.

Between 2017 and the present (again, prorating 2020 out as a full season) Benintendi averaged 2 fWAR/year while Moncada has averaged 2.61 fWAR/year. Moncada has definitely been the better player over that span, although I'll absolutely agree that the expectations for Moncada were higher and that he has fallen shorter vs. his potential relative to Benintendi. I don't think Benintendi + Kopech was going to bring back Sale, but that doesn't really factor into the argument as to whether Dombrowski kept the good players and traded the duds. Moncada may not have played up to his potential, but he definitely hasn't been a dud.

I don't have all of the farm system rankings from Dombrowski's final year, but generally the Sox system was near the bottom of most lists. At the end of the 2019 season, bleacherreport had the Red Sox as dead last.

Looking through the 2022 fangraphs prospect ranking lists, of the Red Sox top 30 Dombrowski is responsible for #s 1, 4, 5, 8, 10, 11, 13, 18, 19, 20, 21, 25, 26, 27, 29 and 30 while Bloom is responsible for 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 14, 15, 16, 17, 23, 24, and 28. Now the numbers have surely shifted a bit since then, but as of this ranking that's 16/30 for Dombrowski, although the numbers are a bit weighted toward the bottom of the list. Considering that Bloom has had about a year less of time to work with and that Bloom's acquisitions have had significantly less development time than Dombrowskis, I think the fact that it's a 50/50 split does validate Dombrowski's reputation a bit. Of course, Dombrowski was also dealing with some factors outside of his control. Daniel Flores' tragic death, Noah Song being stuck with military commitments, and the loss of the 2016-2017 international signing period could easily have us looking at Dombrowski's tenure differently if they had gone differently.

Also, I completely agree that things look better for Dombrowski now than they did when he left. If any or all of Casas, Bello, and Rafaela hit then that'll definitely change things.

However, it's pretty incontrovertible that the Sox farm has not produced much if any significant talent for several years, and that gap has left the team in the difficult position now where it has faced the decision of trying to retain franchise players hitting free agency at a time when the team doesn't have the young talent to easily offset the expenses. In a year or three that might look very different (partly because of Dombrowski's additions, partly because of Bloom's) but as of now the problem is what it is.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I know we know Iglesias for the glove but I have seen multiple references to him at his age being below average defensively. Can someone help with some stats? Thank you.
Column A is Iglesias
Column B is Bogaerts, just for comparison's sake

Higher is better, obviously.

Fielding Bible Defensive Runs saved from 2017-2022 at SS:
-5......-11
0.........-8
5.........-9
-2........-4
-22......-5
-4.........5

Ultimate Zone Rating for same period/position:
10.2... -0.9
9.7.......1.3
7.6.......0.8
6.3.......0.2
-10.3....2.3
3.1.......4.7
 
You know the difference is that the ATL model gives their players contracts. Ours ships them out for losers like Jeter Downs.
Acuna, Strider, Harris, and Albies were all extended pre-arb. Riley and Olson were both extended after their first arb years.

Comparing these to failing to extend and trading Betts in his walk year is ridiculous. It's not like Dombrowski failed to extend his young talent. He got extended Bogaerts, didn't he? Yes, he failed to extend Devers and Betts, but it's also very possible that they weren't willing to sign the kind of contract that Atlanta has been offering and that Dombrowski offered X.

Do you think Bloom has had any pre-arb or arb 1 players worth offering a giant extension to? I don't. Hopefully in a year or two he will, and I firmly hope that he does. It takes two to tango of course and who knows if the players in question will be amenable.
 

Seels

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Acuna, Strider, Harris, and Albies were all extended pre-arb. Riley and Olson were both extended after their first arb years.

Comparing these to failing to extend and trading Betts in his walk year is ridiculous. It's not like Dombrowski failed to extend his young talent. He got extended Bogaerts, didn't he? Yes, he failed to extend Devers and Betts, but it's also very possible that they weren't willing to sign the kind of contract that Atlanta has been offering and that Dombrowski offered X.

Do you think Bloom has had any pre-arb or arb 1 players worth offering a giant extension to? I don't. Hopefully in a year or two he will, and I firmly hope that he does. It takes two to tango of course and who knows if the players in question will be amenable.
I don't think I've ever disagreed with a post more. Every team is extending their pre-arb players except the Sox. The Sox did with Bogaerts, and uh, good for them for getting another 3 years out of him. But it was obvious that Mookie was special his 2nd year in, and probably on a hall of fame path in year 3. You offer that guy 10 years 250m then, and if he doesn't accept it, give him a bit more.

When every other team is able to extend their young players, even franchises like Pittsburgh and Tampa, and the Red Sox aren't, that's on them.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Acuna, Strider, Harris, and Albies were all extended pre-arb. Riley and Olson were both extended after their first arb years.

Comparing these to failing to extend and trading Betts in his walk year is ridiculous. It's not like Dombrowski failed to extend his young talent. He got extended Bogaerts, didn't he? Yes, he failed to extend Devers and Betts, but it's also very possible that they weren't willing to sign the kind of contract that Atlanta has been offering and that Dombrowski offered X.

Do you think Bloom has had any pre-arb or arb 1 players worth offering a giant extension to? I don't. Hopefully in a year or two he will, and I firmly hope that he does. It takes two to tango of course and who knows if the players in question will be amenable.
Another point regarding Dombrowski extending Devers in a Acuna/Albies/Harris style deal, when Devers was at that point, the Sox had the highest payroll in the league. Part of what made it possible to a carry ~$240M payroll in 2018-2019 (which included dead weight like Hanley and Sandoval) is having Devers on a minimum salary contract. That's something the Braves had no concerns about. In 2019, when Albies and Acuna signed their deals (changing their total cap hit from $1M to $17M), the biggest salary obligations of a total payroll of $160M were Josh Donaldson (1/23 remaining), Freddie Freeman (3/50 remaining), and Mark Melancon (2/31 remaining).

Timing matters in these things.
 

Pitt the Elder

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Another point regarding Dombrowski extending Devers in a Acuna/Albies/Harris style deal, when Devers was at that point, the Sox had the highest payroll in the league. Part of what made it possible to a carry ~$240M payroll in 2018-2019 (which included dead weight like Hanley and Sandoval) is having Devers on a minimum salary contract. That's something the Braves had no concerns about. In 2019, when Albies and Acuna signed their deals (changing their total cap hit from $1M to $17M), the biggest salary obligations of a total payroll of $160M were Josh Donaldson (1/23 remaining), Freddie Freeman (3/50 remaining), and Mark Melancon (2/31 remaining).

Timing matters in these things.
That's a really good point and maybe the big question now is what the Sox do with Casas and Mayer when they are established big leaguers. The payroll flexibility they're creating now (by choice or not) will put them in a better position to lock up young talent early. In theory.
 

absintheofmalaise

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I'll wait for the official announcement to start a thread.
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Third baseman Justin Turner and the Boston Red Sox are in agreement on a contract, sources tell me and @JeffPassan Turner, 38, is expected to spend most of his time at designated hitter or first base, with Rafael Devers at third. Turner had been a Dodger for the last nine years
 
I don't think I've ever disagreed with a post more. Every team is extending their pre-arb players except the Sox. The Sox did with Bogaerts, and uh, good for them for getting another 3 years out of him. But it was obvious that Mookie was special his 2nd year in, and probably on a hall of fame path in year 3. You offer that guy 10 years 250m then, and if he doesn't accept it, give him a bit more.

When every other team is able to extend their young players, even franchises like Pittsburgh and Tampa, and the Red Sox aren't, that's on them.
That surprises me given that my response is just stating facts! I don't actually disagree with you in principal. I wish the team had extended Devers and Betts during pre-arb. That was Dombrowski's tenure though, so I'm not sure why we should be so confident that Bloom isn't going to try extended players early when he actually has some young players worth extending. Like, who exactly do you want Bloom to be offering that 10/250 to now? Casas? Bello?

If the Red Sox have another opportunity to extend a Betts type player and don't even try then I'll be just as upset as you, believe me. But until then, I'm going to try not to paint the current organization with a broad brush based on decisions made under different circumstances by the previous leadership team.

Another point regarding Dombrowski extending Devers in a Acuna/Albies/Harris style deal, when Devers was at that point, the Sox had the highest payroll in the league. Part of what made it possible to a carry ~$240M payroll in 2018-2019 (which included dead weight like Hanley and Sandoval) is having Devers on a minimum salary contract. That's something the Braves had no concerns about. In 2019, when Albies and Acuna signed their deals (changing their total cap hit from $1M to $17M), the biggest salary obligations of a total payroll of $160M were Josh Donaldson (1/23 remaining), Freddie Freeman (3/50 remaining), and Mark Melancon (2/31 remaining).

Timing matters in these things.
Your point is a great one, and an excellent argument as to why it's perhaps for the best that the team didn't throw $600-700mm at Devers and Bogaerts this offseason. Losing those players hurts/will hurt but the only way this cycle stops is if the team develops some young talent worth extending Atlanta-style and has the payroll flexibility at that moment in time to do it.

The who called for the team to break the bank now to keep Bogaerts and Devers under any circumstances are just setting themselves up for the same furor and heartbreak when the next set of young stars come up through the organization. If you're counting on those pre-arb salaries to make room for several-year-old FA signings, then you can't boost those pre-arb salaries with an early extension.
 

BringBackMo

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You know the difference is that the ATL model gives their players contracts. Ours ships them out for losers like Jeter Downs.
That’s interesting. I could have sworn Garrett Whitlock, a good young pitcher with years of control left, was locked up with an extension.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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That’s interesting. I could have sworn Garrett Whitlock, a good young pitcher with years of control left, was locked up with an extension.
With the club options, they bought out two free agency years with that deal (through his age 32 season). Just for comparison, Acuna's deal bought out four years of free agency including the club options, taking him through his age 30 season.

Both are extremely team friendly deals, which only suggest the player was willing to leave a lot on the table in exchange for long term security. The Braves front office isn't doing anything better than the Sox front office. They're just getting the right players at the right times who are willing to sign.
 

Seels

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That’s interesting. I could have sworn Garrett Whitlock, a good young pitcher with years of control left, was locked up with an extension.
All it did was finalize his cost controlled years. I mean that's good I guess. But it wasn't an extension.
 

mikcou

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That’s interesting. I could have sworn Garrett Whitlock, a good young pitcher with years of control left, was locked up with an extension.
Whitlock isnt comparable to what Atlanta is doing unless you think hes somehow going to morph into an ace. Atlanta got 4 FA years of Acuna, 7 of Riley, 2 years of Turner, 5 years of Olson, 4 years of Albies.

Whitlock probably isnt as good as any of those guys.
 

BringBackMo

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Whitlock isnt comparable to what Atlanta is doing unless you think hes somehow going to morph into an ace. Atlanta got 4 FA years of Acuna, 7 of Riley, 2 years of Turner, 5 years of Olson, 4 years of Albies.

Whitlock probably isnt as good as any of those guys.
It’s absolutely comparable. The Red Sox are at a different stage in their development cycle. They can only lock up the prospects that they have. The Braves did an incredible job finding and developing those players and they locked them up. The next wave of Sox prospects aren’t there yet. You should really listen to Bloom’s recent appearance on Bradford’s podcast. He said the Sox made a mistake by getting away from locking up prospects long term and need to get back in the game. It’s not fair to ding Bloom for not locking up a caliber of prospect he doesn’t have yet.
 

kazuneko

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Column A is Iglesias
Column B is Bogaerts, just for comparison's sake

Higher is better, obviously.

Fielding Bible Defensive Runs saved from 2017-2022 at SS:
-5......-11
0.........-8
5.........-9
-2........-4
-22......-5
-4.........5

Ultimate Zone Rating for same period/position:
10.2... -0.9
9.7.......1.3
7.6.......0.8
6.3.......0.2
-10.3....2.3
3.1.......4.7
Anyone able to explain the significance of the number in the first and second column in each list?
 

JCizzle

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It’s absolutely comparable. The Red Sox are at a different stage in their development cycle. They can only lock up the prospects that they have. The Braves did an incredible job finding and developing those players and they locked them up. The next wave of Sox prospects aren’t there yet. You should really listen to Bloom’s recent appearance on Bradford’s podcast. He said the Sox made a mistake by getting away from locking up prospects long term and need to get back in the game. It’s not fair to ding Bloom for not locking up a caliber of prospect he doesn’t have yet.
Casas? Bello?

Xander and Devers a couple years ago?
 

Sec42R37S21

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I would sign on to having Devers being good through his age 33 season and then paying him for three years of just OK-ness.
It's been 22 years since Manny Ramirez signed here for 8 years/160 million. Sports salary math says that 22 years later, marque players probably should be in 40-50 million a year range. And teams always add extra years for marque players on their contracts, knowing that they'll probably stink in the final few years. It's the price of putting a winning team on the field, just because the Red Sox no longer want to pay for marque players, doesn't mean other teams are making a mistake by paying and playing to win.
 

BringBackMo

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Casas? Bello?

Xander and Devers a couple years ago?
I don’t understand. Are you implying that the Sox have failed to lock up Casas and Bello? They each just made the majors for the first time at the end of last season. My guess is that they are very specifically among the players Bloom is talking about in that podcast. Xander was locked up to an extension but was given opt outs. Devers didn’t happen when he was younger and I suspect that he’s one of the examples Bloom was talking about when he said the team needs to get back to it.
 

JCizzle

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I don’t understand. Are you implying that the Sox have failed to lock up Casas and Bello? They each just made the majors for the first time at the end of last season. My guess is that they are very specifically among the players Bloom is talking about in that podcast. Xander was locked up to an extension but was given opt outs. Devers didn’t happen when he was younger and I suspect that he’s one of the examples Bloom was talking about when he said the team needs to get back to it.
They aren't locked up to this point, and I'm not sure why the FO deserves the benefit of the doubt with them until they actually are extended. Would anyone be upset if either player was extended tomorrow? The lack of a long major league track record is the risk that comes with these decisions - I don't want them to wait until next year once they establish themselves and potentially become (much) more expensive.
 

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They aren't locked up to this point, and I'm not sure why the FO deserves the benefit of the doubt with them until they actually are extended. Would anyone be upset if either player was extended tomorrow? The lack of a long major league track record is the risk that comes with these decisions - I don't want them to wait until next year.
There is absolutely no way that Casas should be extended now.
 

InsideTheParker

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They aren't locked up to this point, and I'm not sure why the FO deserves the benefit of the doubt with them until they actually are extended. Would anyone be upset if either player was extended tomorrow? The lack of a long major league track record is the risk that comes with these decisions - I don't want them to wait until next year.
Gosh, I've barely seen them. An extension seems premature for such young players. Why not wait until the ASG?
 

kazuneko

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They aren't locked up to this point, and I'm not sure why the FO deserves the benefit of the doubt with them until they actually are extended. Would anyone be upset if either player was extended tomorrow? The lack of a long major league track record is the risk that comes with these decisions - I don't want them to wait until next year once they establish themselves more and potentially become (much) more expensive.
But you said in your previous post that "It’s not fair to ding Bloom for not locking up a caliber of prospect he doesn’t have yet". At the time of Bloom's hiring in 2019 Devers was exactly the type of young player (age 22) that other teams were locking up. How is it "not fair to ding Bloom" for not doing that?
 

JCizzle

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But you said in your previous post that "It’s not fair to ding Bloom for not locking up a caliber of prospect he doesn’t have yet". At the time of Bloom's hiring in 2019 Devers was exactly the type of young player (age 22) that other teams were locking up. How is it "not fair to ding Bloom" for not doing that?
That's exactly the point I'm agreeing with and arguing they should make with other players :)
 

moondog80

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Because they don't even know for sure that he's good? And he already is locked up for 6 years?

I get that losing Xander sucked, but the lockup fetish is going a bit far. Should they lock up Mikey Romero too?

Teams do take on risk with those deals, and they don't all go swimmingly. TB had to eat a bunch of Evan Longoria's deal. What would Cody Bellinger's contract have looked like if they did an early mega deal? Or Jason Heyward's?
 

JCizzle

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Because they don't even know for sure that he's good? And he already is locked up for 6 years?

I get that losing Xander sucked, but the lockup fetish is going a bit far. Should they lock up Mikey Romero too?
If they don't want to spend money to extend established stars at market rate, I'm all about a machine gun approach to young players if that's the alternative. There has to be a risk at some point in the equation - either the player lacks experience and can be had for reasonable money, or have performed and likely priced themselves out of this ownership group (Lester, Mookie, X, etc.).
 

BringBackMo

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If they don't want to spend money to extend established stars at market rate, I'm all about a machine gun approach to young players if that's the alternative. There has to be a risk at some point in the equation - either the player lacks experience and can be had for reasonable money, or have performed and likely priced themselves out of this ownership group (Lester, Mookie, X, etc.).
Fine, it’s a defensible position. I’d wait a year and see where we’re at, but if you want to argue they should do it now, OK, it’s at least a defensible opinion. But you are positioning this as though the Sox have somehow committed professional malpractice by not already locking up Casas and Bello. That’s kind of insane.
 

JCizzle

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Fine, it’s a defensible position. I’d wait a year and see where we’re at, but if you want to argue they should do it now, OK, it’s at least a defensible opinion. But you are positioning this as though the Sox have somehow committed professional malpractice by not already locking up Casas and Bello. That’s kind of insane.
If it comes across as accusing them of malpractice, then that's my bad. It's not malpractice, but if the team is no longer in the market for superstar extensions or free agents, then I'd rather them spend a boat load of our big market money across pre-arb players and hope a reasonable amount make it.
 

BringBackMo

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If it comes across as accusing them of malpractice, then that's my bad. It's not malpractice, but if the team is no longer in the market for superstar extensions or free agents, then I'd rather them spend a boat load of our big market money across pre-arb players and hope a reasonable amount make it.
I agree with you and I think most of the posters here do, too. I think people are just reacting to the timeline. Doing it now for Casas and Bello seems aggressive. But I am with you that it’s something I hope they’ll make a priority, especially if those two deliver this year.
 

moondog80

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I agree with you and I think most of the posters here do, too. I think people are just reacting to the timeline. Doing it now for Casas and Bello seems aggressive. But I am with you that it’s something I hope they’ll make a priority, especially if those two deliver this year.
Unless someone is a total stud in year one, just how many years do you want to buy out from a player who is already under control for 5 years after his rookie season?

My instinct it to wait until after year 3. The player still hasn't really cashed in and is a full 3 years from FA, so far enough where it's still a bit of a risk to wait so there should be motivation on the player's part. It'll cost a bit more, but nothing is free, and the team will have gotten to take full advantage of the 3 years where the player was dirt cheap. That seems like the happy medium?
 

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Worth noting that the Braves usually lock up their guys after a great (4-5 plus WAR) season or in progress of it. Players with a proven stud year. If Casas or Bello put up those kinda numbers and are willing to take a substantial discount or give up several FA years like the Braves guys are? Then it’s worth a discussion. The Braves aren’t giving out these deals to guys without severe discounts and/or getting extra years. Strider’s excepted maybe. And some of those deals were criminally bad for the players.
 

BringBackMo

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Unless someone is a total stud in year one, just how many years do you want to buy out from a player who is already under control for 5 years after his rookie season?

My instinct it to wait until after year 3. The player still hasn't really cashed in and is a full 3 years from FA, so far enough where it's still a bit of a risk to wait so there should be motivation on the player's part. It'll cost a bit more, but nothing is free, and the team will have gotten to take full advantage of the 3 years where the player was dirt cheap. That seems like the happy medium?
I’ll be honest, I haven’t really researched this topic all that much, but I do know that Bloom was part of the brain trust that locked up Longoria in what I believe was his rookie year. And I believe the Braves have been pretty aggressive about doing it really early. So if Casas and Bello kill it this year, I’d be open to extensions for them.

Edit: Fishercat said it better and with actual data.