2022-2023 General Celtics thread

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Wow. I just assumed it would be Miami. That's weird.
The C's play similar "series" at home against Orlando in December (16 and 18), at Charlotte in January (14 and 16), and at home against Toronto in April (5 and 7).
 

Saints Rest

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The C's play similar "series" at home against Orlando in December (16 and 18), at Charlotte in January (14 and 16), and at home against Toronto in April (5 and 7).
It's weird for us old-time NBA fans, but it makes a ton of sense, in terms of saving travel (in terms of player health/fatigue). Why make two trips to a city when you could just make one trip and play two games.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Agreed. It's weird. 134pts. 13pt win. Yet it felt tenuous.

Guess we're conditioned to always be apprehensive with the Heat/Spoelstra

That's a loss last year with all the 3s (18-40, 45%) the Heat buried
Was weird because MIA kept hanging around, hanging around, and usually in the NBA when a ream does that, they make a run to get close or tie itbut the Cs seemed to keep a working margun all game. Never a blowout after 1Q but never really tight either.

Cs do have to work on their dribble hand-ff/ PnR defense. As Scal said, guys were coming off those Bam screens wide open. Unless Joe is okay with teams getting open mid-range shots figuring they won't keep up with the Cs 3Ps.
 

SoFloSoxFan

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Was weird because MIA kept hanging around, hanging around, and usually in the NBA when a ream does that, they make a run to get close or tie itbut the Cs seemed to keep a working margun all game. Never a blowout after 1Q but never really tight either.
I'm not an expert at basketball but I was watching this game and in the fourth quarter the Heat were within 2-3 points several times, and with just over 5 minutes left were only down 3.

The Celtics went on an 16-6 run to finish the game.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I'm not an expert at basketball but I was watching this game and in the fourth quarter the Heat were within 2-3 points several times, and with just over 5 minutes left were only down 3.

The Celtics went on an 16-6 run to finish the game.
Right but going from memory, the Cs would always re-establish a working margin. Don't know about you, but Cs always felt like they were in control even though MIA ostensibly was in striking distance. That's why it was a weird game to me.
 

joe dokes

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It's weird for us old-time NBA fans, but it makes a ton of sense, in terms of saving travel (in terms of player health/fatigue). Why make two trips to a city when you could just make one trip and play two games.
One minor unfortunate side effect is that if a team is in a particular bad spot with injuries or somesuch, the other team gets the "advantage" twice. Multiple trips, while sub-optimal for several reasons, potentially washes that out a bit.
 

ColonelMustard

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Who is expected to rest Friday? I want to buy some good seats, but not if Tatum or Brown are resting. Is there an appropriate thread to discuss game attendance or tickets? (I could not locate it. I can delete and repost at the appropriate location.)

Thank you, you kings and queens.
 

Red Right Ankle

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That dude is gonna have an aneurysm.

I enjoyed when he called White taking a sideways floater from one foot while falling backwards an "easy 2." Jesus, dude, Charlotte's D sucks, but take a breath.
 

Cornboy14

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Who is expected to rest Friday? I want to buy some good seats, but not if Tatum or Brown are resting. Is there an appropriate thread to discuss game attendance or tickets? (I could not locate it. I can delete and repost at the appropriate location.)

Thank you, you kings and queens.
I think everyone will play. Generally they've only rested guys on back to backs, or for legitimate injuries. With Thursday off, unless Tatum's ankle from last week, or Brown's neck flares up, I think the full roster plays.
 

Cellar-Door

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I enjoyed how he thought guys could get over those Kornet screens because there was "all that room" and it's like 1 foot, and you probably trip on Kornet's splayed out foot and commit a foul on the guy who'll throw it at the rim for 3 FTs.

Some of those were bad D, some were him being dumb,
 

HomeRunBaker

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Who is expected to rest Friday? I want to buy some good seats, but not if Tatum or Brown are resting. Is there an appropriate thread to discuss game attendance or tickets? (I could not locate it. I can delete and repost at the appropriate location.)

Thank you, you kings and queens.
Injuries aside, the only time you really need to worry about this in when part of a B2B. Nobody will be rested for load management with days off on both sides. If anything, you’ll get high starter minutes should it be a tight game throughout.
 

BaseballJones

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That dude is gonna have an aneurysm.

I enjoyed when he called White taking a sideways floater from one foot while falling backwards an "easy 2." Jesus, dude, Charlotte's D sucks, but take a breath.
For real. Some of those shots the Celtics made were a fairly high degree of difficulty and he just says "easy two". LOL ok.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’m from St Louis. Just wanted to applaud this.
How does a team with Barnes, Caldwell Jones, and future NBA All Stars Moses Malone, Maurice Lucas and ML Carr not make the ABA playoffs? That’s some Rod Thorn magic right there.
 

Van Everyman

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Cs do have to work on their dribble hand-ff/ PnR defense. As Scal said, guys were coming off those Bam screens wide open. Unless Joe is okay with teams getting open mid-range shots figuring they won't keep up with the Cs 3Ps.
I only watched a little bit of the game. But isn’t one of the knocks against Bam that he constantly sets moving screens and never gets called for it?
 

joe dokes

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How does a team with Barnes, Caldwell Jones, and future NBA All Stars Moses Malone, Maurice Lucas and ML Carr not make the ABA playoffs? That’s some Rod Thorn magic right there.
Maybe they got tired of being around Bob Costas and decided ending the season earlier was a better plan.

Their owners made a good deal, though:
I
In the summer of 1976, with the ABA at the point of financial collapse, the six surviving franchises (the Virginia Squires went bankrupt immediately after the final season) began negotiating a merger with the NBA. But the senior circuit decided to accept only four teams from the rival league: the Nets (the last ABA champion), Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers and San Antonio Spurs.

The NBA placated John Y. Brown, owner of the Kentucky Colonels, by giving him a $3.3 million settlement in exchange for shutting his team down. (Brown later used much of that money to buy the Buffalo Braves of the NBA.) But the owners of the Spirits, the brothers Ozzie and Daniel Silna, struck a prescient deal to acquire future television money from the teams that joined the NBA, a 1/7 share from each franchise (or nearly 2% of the entire NBA's TV money), in perpetuity. (The deal allocated 45% for each of the Silnas and 10% for their lawyer Donald Scupak, who brokered the deal. Ozzie died in 2016.) With network TV deals becoming more and more lucrative, the deal has made the Silnas wealthy, earning them $186 million as of 2008, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, and $255 million as of 2012 according to The New York Times.[2] (The NBA nearly succeeded in buying out the Silnas in 1982 by offering $5 million over eight years, but negotiations stalled when the siblings demanded $8 million over five.) On June 27, 2007, it was extended for another eight years, ensuring another $100 million+ windfall for the Silnas. In 2014, the Silnas reached agreement with the NBA to greatly reduce the perpetual payments and take a lump sum of $500 million. In the last few years before the lump sum agreement, the Silnas were receiving $14.57 million a year, despite being owners of a team that hasn't played a game in over 40 years. (The Silnas will, however, still be receiving a now much smaller portion of the television revenue through a new partnership with the former ABA teams the Nets, Nuggets, Pacers and Spurs.)[3]
Spirits of St. Louis - Wikipedia
 

Jimbodandy

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I only watched a little bit of the game. But isn’t one of the knocks against Bam that he constantly sets moving screens and never gets called for it?
IMO he throws wide screens but is pretty diligent about not setting moving screens. I think that he has earned the benefit of the doubt on those. Marcus and Jaylen both tried to draw fouls on his wide screens and didn't get the calls against him that someone like Kornet gets for the same wide screen. But it wasn't because he was moving. His discipline is quite good.
 

bakahump

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OK Sosh.....so who is the Chad Kroeger looking dude who is on the celts bench?
 

Jimbodandy

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I dunno, near the end of the game, he set a screen where he moved into Derrick White, and was called for it. I think that's what set him off on his technicals.
Oh right. Yeah that one was as ugly as a blocked punt, and he got called for it. But the ones earlier were wide but solid, which is why he didn't get called. I think that White fooled him by going under.
 

jasail

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IMO he throws wide screens but is pretty diligent about not setting moving screens. I think that he has earned the benefit of the doubt on those. Marcus and Jaylen both tried to draw fouls on his wide screens and didn't get the calls against him that someone like Kornet gets for the same wide screen. But it wasn't because he was moving. His discipline is quite good.
It's a brutal and borderline screen play. Bam has a giant rear end and a great ability to lean it into the screen in a way where the rest of his body doesn't move a ton.
 

jasail

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I dunno, near the end of the game, he set a screen where he moved into Derrick White, and was called for it. I think that's what set him off on his technicals.
That was a pretty obvious moving screen because he pivoted and White went under and got bumped right out of the play. I don't know why he was upset with the refs about that one, White rope-a-doped him into it. I felt he was frustrated by a few non-calls when he had the ball in the post. Officiating last night was bad both ways and the players should know going into the game that a Tony Brothers crew is going to make everyone upset.
 

Jimbodandy

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That was a pretty obvious moving screen because he pivoted and White went under and got bumped right out of the play. I don't know why he was upset with the refs about that one, White rope-a-doped him into it. I felt he was frustrated by a few non-calls when he had the ball in the post. Officiating last night was bad both ways and the players should know going into the game that a Tony Brothers crew is going to make everyone upset.
They should. We do. Both teams furious with inconsistencies, as well they should have been.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I only watched a little bit of the game. But isn’t one of the knocks against Bam that he constantly sets moving screens and never gets called for it?
Is a screen moving if it isn't called?

Cs have been giving up a lot of mid-range shots on DHO and PnRs. Given JMazz's attention to detail, this has to be by design but MIA killed them on these plays (kind of like Donovan Mitchell did as well). Maybe they will play different coverages when TL gets back.
 

Fishy1

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I was concerned coming into the season about backcourt shooting, but Smart is up to36% after a slow start, and White and Brogdon are at an incredible 45 and 49% far above career norms.
Smart's best mark since 2018-2019.

I think as a whole the team is shooting at an unsustainable percentage, but boy is it fun to watch. The only people shooting below 40% right now are Tatum, Brown, and Smart. Everyone else -- Horford all the way down to Pritchard, Kornet and Blake Griffin -- are shooting 40% or better on their threes. Vonleh is only at 33% -- clearly the only reason he's out of the rotation. ;) Obviously some of thee are wildly small sample sizes, and some of these guys are due for regressions, but elsewhere others have noted that the Celtics are getting a lot of open assisted threes, and if you want to shoot 40% as a team, that would be the way to do it.
 
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nighthob

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I was concerned coming into the season about backcourt shooting, but Smart is up to36% after a slow start, and White and Brogdon are at an incredible 45 and 49% far above career norms.
Tatum's drive game has become so lethal that it's now effectively impossible for teams to challenge everyone. To me it looks like Marcus is getting a lot more open threes this year, and he's always been decent when he's wide open.
 

TomTerrific

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Tatum's drive game has become so lethal that it's now effectively impossible for teams to challenge everyone. To me it looks like Marcus is getting a lot more open threes this year, and he's always been decent when he's wide open.
Yeah, this writ large. I've heard a lot about the unsustainability of the C's 3-pt shooting, but when the Js are collapsing the defense right and left, resulting in someone getting a wide open look from 3...well, how is your shooting percentage not supposed to be pretty high?
 

Jimbodandy

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Yeah, this writ large. I've heard a lot about the unsustainability of the C's 3-pt shooting, but when the Js are collapsing the defense right and left, resulting in someone getting a wide open look from 3...well, how is your shooting percentage not supposed to be pretty high?
Wish I were smart enough to find the shot quality data. We should be able to predict an expected 3pt% from the location (corner/above break) data (which is easy to find) and the "average distance away" data (I have no idea where that is).

Just based purely on corner3 shot profile, it's not at all surprising that we're shooting well. But a lot of those shots this year seem to also be the "wide open" kind, which would have an additional modifier towards an x3PT number.
 

tbrown_01923

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They are shooting (https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612738/shots-dash?dir=A&sort=CLOSE_DEF_DIST_RANGE)
  • 31.2 catch and shoot threes a game at 42.8%
  • 16.1 open threes at 40.5%
  • 19.1 wide open threes at 44.2%
THe league (minus the celtics) is shooting (https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/shots-closest-defender-10?CloseDefDistRange=6 Feet - Wide Open&dir=D&sort=TEAM_NAME)
  • 23.6 catch and shoot threes at 36% (celtics lead te league in these types of attempts)
  • 13.4 open threes at 34% (the only teams shotting more open threes are Golden State, Dallas, Utah and Miami)
  • 16.1 wide open threes at 38% (only teams shooting more wide open threes are Oklahoma, Indiana, MIlwaukee, Sacramento and Dallas)
So as the eye test tells us they are generating good looks and they are hitting them at a high rate
  • #1 in catch and shoot percentage AND 6.8% > than the rest of the league
  • #1 in open percentage AND 6.5% > than the rest of the league
  • #2 in wide open percentage (denver) AND 6.2% > rest of the league
 
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TomTerrific

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Wish I were smart enough to find the shot quality data. We should be able to predict an expected 3pt% from the location (corner/above break) data (which is easy to find) and the "average distance away" data (I have no idea where that is).

Just based purely on corner3 shot profile, it's not at all surprising that we're shooting well. But a lot of those shots this year seem to also be the "wide open" kind, which would have an additional modifier towards an x3PT number.
Yes. There just seem to be multiple times a game where various members of the Celtics are shooting modified set shots from beyond the arc.

No idea how to quantify this, but it seems like a real thing
 

SteveF

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The shooting on above the break 3s probably isn't sustainable. It's rare for a team to shoot over 40% from there for an entire season. The last team to do it was 2015-2016 GSWs (41.6%), and they did it on ~33% less volume. Before that was the Spurs on half the volume in 2010ish (can't remember exactly).

It's true that Tatum/Brown might shoot better from there than they have thus far, but guys like Hauser and Williams are shooting over 50% from there and that's extremely unlikely to continue.

All that said, is something like 38% reasonable? The top teams on AB3s are usually in the 38% range (league median is usually ~35%ish). That's about .7 fewer made AB 3s a game which still leaves the Celtics with a likely top 3 offense at the end of the year. (They'd still be the top offense by points per 100 possessions in NBA history if they ended the season 2 points worse than they are right now.)

Their shooting on corner 3s isn't that unusual (to round this out.)

Edit: As a counterpoint, the game has changed even in the last few years. The Celtics may be the best spaced team in NBA history, with essentially every player that touches the floor being capable of shooting the 3. And at some point we might very well expect the skill of players to be such that the top 3 point shooting teams are making 40% on AB3s. It seems inevitable that some day that day will come. (As a counterpoint to this counterpoint, there doesn't seem to be a trend up in the median on AB3s based on my cursory look.)
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, this writ large. I've heard a lot about the unsustainability of the C's 3-pt shooting, but when the Js are collapsing the defense right and left, resulting in someone getting a wide open look from 3...well, how is your shooting percentage not supposed to be pretty high?
Came here to post same. The shots we are getting are inside-out, open looks in rhythm……every player should be shooting above their career norm on these looks.
 

lovegtm

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Came here to post same. The shots we are getting are inside-out, open looks in rhythm……every player should be shooting above their career norm on these looks.
Ha, I also wanted to post this. The open-wide-open data is great, but doesn't capture the kind of open it is. I've never seen a team generate so many rhythm 3s off paint touches.

You have to bet on some regression, but I don't think it will be huge.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ha, I also wanted to post this. The open-wide-open data is great, but doesn't capture the kind of open it is. I've never seen a team generate so many rhythm 3s off paint touches.

You have to bet on some regression, but I don't think it will be huge.
The regression will certainly come in the playoffs when gameplanned defenses by quality teams begin to take these shots away or begin heavily contesting them.
 

benhogan

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The regression will certainly come in the playoffs when gameplanned defenses by quality teams begin to take these shots away or begin heavily contesting them.
yea the competition will be better, the C's won't be launching 3s at will against the Hornets come May

I was happy to hear Hanlan was around to work with JT on his 3pt stroke. If Tatum shoots 3s at 40% we can just hand him the MVP trophy now.

Brogdon 48.3%
Horford 48.8%
White 45.2%
Hauser 47.9%
Grant 44.2%

I'm not sure who I'd bet on to have the highest % by season's end? Hauser would be my guess

13 of those 17 passes were to teammates standing at the 3pt line. Mostly wide open 3s

Please IME, surround the JAYs with 3pt shooting
My wish from last October was granted... without IME's help
 

Reverend

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Came here to post same. The shots we are getting are inside-out, open looks in rhythm……every player should be shooting above their career norm on these looks.
Ha, I also wanted to post this. The open-wide-open data is great, but doesn't capture the kind of open it is. I've never seen a team generate so many rhythm 3s off paint touches.

You have to bet on some regression, but I don't think it will be huge.
I was going to post along the same lines as everyone else after the Washington game and looking at the team stats for the season and I see that people are largely seeing the same thing. I wanted to pose a question though:

Might the way the offense is constructed lend itself to “the shooters” hitting 3s lights out while the Js stay in the cromulent but not light out range? And I don’t mean by design, per se, but as a function of how the offense works.

Like, a big part of what makes the spacing so effective is their threat to drive and score, not just kick. Which means they get guarded differently and other defenders have to position to help. Basically, the gravity is what makes the spacing so effective, such that if the other defenders get to close to their guys, it leaves the paint open.

Anyway, I was wondering if part of the way this works is for Tatum and Brown to keep taking their 3 attempts even if they’re not as open as the other guys when they take theirs as part of keeping the defense honest. And if that’s the case, it would seem that Tatum and Brown (and to an extent, Smart) might have lower 3-point shooting percentages, but that would not be a bug but a feature is a system that then provides much higher 3 pointer rates for the shooters and also clearing the lane more times.
 

TripleOT

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The Celtics have eight players shooting 40% or higher from three. That’s insane.

The team is at 50/40/85% for the season.

Even Smart is shooting 36% from three, and an encouraging 53.6% from two. The excellent spacing and ball movement creates lots of open space inside the arc.

Mazzulla has an offensive juggernaut on his hands. Every player accepts his role, and thrives in it. It’s really a beautiful example of efficient offense in its purest form in the three point era.

Hauser has exactly one unassisted basket this season, a putback. Every AL three has been assisted. 89% of White’s threes have been assisted. 91% for Grant Williams.

Open catch and shoot threes off ball movement has their offense looking like shootaround. Even Tatum is relying less on self generated threes, at 69% assisted this season, compared to 58% last year. It’s going to be very interesting when they add a top rim runner like Rob Williams to the offense.
 

Jimbodandy

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I was going to post along the same lines as everyone else after the Washington game and looking at the team stats for the season and I see that people are largely seeing the same thing. I wanted to pose a question though:

Might the way the offense is constructed lend itself to “the shooters” hitting 3s lights out while the Js stay in the cromulent but not light out range? And I don’t mean by design, per se, but as a function of how the offense works.

Like, a big part of what makes the spacing so effective is their threat to drive and score, not just kick. Which means they get guarded differently and other defenders have to position to help. Basically, the gravity is what makes the spacing so effective, such that if the other defenders get to close to their guys, it leaves the paint open.

Anyway, I was wondering if part of the way this works is for Tatum and Brown to keep taking their 3 attempts even if they’re not as open as the other guys when they take theirs as part of keeping the defense honest. And if that’s the case, it would seem that Tatum and Brown (and to an extent, Smart) might have lower 3-point shooting percentages, but that would not be a bug but a feature is a system that then provides much higher 3 pointer rates for the shooters and also clearing the lane more times.
There is no doubt a symbiosis. Tatum and Brown will get more attention to themselves full stop. They'll get catch and shoot 3s and even some wide open ones for sure, but neither at the same rate as Grant, Hauser, White, et al. Because the Jays are triple threats and have to be guarded as such. If some guy on D overhelps against Tatum and White gets a good look, it's the cost of doing business. If he overhelps on White or Brogdon and Tatum gets an open look, he's getting an earful from the coach.

We shouldn't be (and aren't) surprised by the fact that the de facto catch and shoot guys are overachieving, albeit by perhaps a bigger factor than usual. And since both of the Jays are having career years in true shooting percentages despite being below their career 3pt%, it kinda shows that the offense is working swimmingly and as designed.
 

benhogan

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it kinda shows that the offense is working swimmingly and as designed.
Tonight is big. If the Celtics consistently torch the Heats zone for two straight games what are NBA coaches going to do?

The entire NBA should be watching closely. Miami did a good job turning Boston over but the C's still slapped 134 pts. on Spoelstra's noggen

The other shoe to drop? This team will be better once PTL is ready to go