Juan Soto is on the trade block; rejects $440 million contract extension from Washington

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Rays have the prospects….get him for this season and next then deal him in 23-24 offseason to recoup a big chunk of your cost.
 

jon abbey

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This reminds me of that old game Time Bomb. The two years he's under control are you plotting strategy, as long as it doesn't explode in your face while you're the one holding the contract.

One of these years, a player getting one of these massive deals is going to get injured to the extent that he can't come back to what made him "worth" the deal in the first place. And then you're stuck.
It happens all the time, Strasburg and Rendon are the first two recent examples to come to mind.
 

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This reminds me of that old game Time Bomb. The two years he's under control are you plotting strategy, as long as it doesn't explode in your face while you're the one holding the contract.

One of these years, a player getting one of these massive deals is going to get injured to the extent that he can't come back to what made him "worth" the deal in the first place. And then you're stuck.
Hasn’t this happened with most of these deals? They’re generally pretty awful with a few exceptions.

Worse though is the idea of trading the farm for half a season of anyone. That’s insanity. If the Sox want this guy wait until the winter and he’ll be there for absolute top dollar.

But I’d rather they pay Devers. At least we know he can handle the media and fans here.
 

glennhoffmania

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Hasn’t this happened with most of these deals? They’re generally pretty awful with a few exceptions.

Worse though is the idea of trading the farm for half a season of anyone. That’s insanity. If the Sox want this guy wait until the winter and he’ll be there for absolute top dollar.

But I’d rather they pay Devers. At least we know he can handle the media and fans here.
He has two years left.
 

cfmoran13

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Personally, I want to see some small- to mid-market team break the bank to sign him so he can wallow in last place for the next 15 seasons because they don’t have enough money to build a team around him. He comes across like an arrogant a-hole to me. Let him get his money and enjoy being on a sh* tty team.
 

simplicio

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I will be shocked if the Lerners trade Soto. Getting rid of the only real draw the team currently has seems like a really bad way to maximize franchise value for a potential sale.
"Horrible team with one great star who definitely won't re-sign here in 2 years" doesn't scream franchise value to me.
 

YTF

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Personally, I want to see some small- to mid-market team break the bank to sign him so he can wallow in last place for the next 15 seasons because they don’t have enough money to build a team around him. He comes across like an arrogant a-hole to me. Let him get his money and enjoy being on a sh* tty team.
If he were looking to that he would have resigned with Washington. Out of curiosity, why does he come off as an arrogant asshole?
 

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Personally, I want to see some small- to mid-market team break the bank to sign him so he can wallow in last place for the next 15 seasons because they don’t have enough money to build a team around him. He comes across like an arrogant a-hole to me. Let him get his money and enjoy being on a sh* tty team.
Well, he could have just signed with the Nats then.
 

sean1562

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Some of us on here may be upset that signing Sale and Eovaldi may have prevented us from signing Mookie long term but imagine being a Nats fan. Big contracts to Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg preventing you from signing Juan Soto. Even worse, imagine trading him to the Dodgers, after already sending them Scherzer and Trea Turner last year.
 

Kliq

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This kind of feels like an NBA move where a guy is saying "I'm in my prime and you guys are rebuilding, I'm not sticking around for that." In baseball, given primes are much longer and team success is less indicative of a star players reputation, you wouldn't expect to see that as often.

There could be other reasons why he doesn't want to stick around in Washington, but its part of the challenge of coming up with a generational star while you are rebuilding is getting them to stick around for dismal seasons.
 

jon abbey

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Big contracts to Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg preventing you from signing Juan Soto.
I mean, they offered him $440M! He is a Boras client, seems like nothing will stop him from going to FA, understandably.
 

scottyno

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Some of us on here may be upset that signing Sale and Eovaldi may have prevented us from signing Mookie long term but imagine being a Nats fan. Big contracts to Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg preventing you from signing Juan Soto. Even worse, imagine trading him to the Dodgers, after already sending them Scherzer and Trea Turner last year.
If they offered him $440m it doesn't seem like those contracts prevented the Nats from signing him, it seems like he doesn't want to commit to 15 years on a team that sucks right now.
 

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I mean, they offered him $440M! He is a Boras client, seems like nothing will stop him from going to FA, understandably.
Mookie insisted he was going to free agency until he got traded and the Dodgers bludgeoned him with a sack of money.

At some point, everyone has a number. Maybe Soto does hold out because he’s so young and can probably get two insane contracts if he stays healthy.
 

Scoops Bolling

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Mookie insisted he was going to free agency until he got traded and the Dodgers bludgeoned him with a sack of money.

At some point, everyone has a number. Maybe Soto does hold out because he’s so young and can probably get two insane contracts if he stays healthy.
Mookie was going to free agency until a global pandemic generated a massive question mark about the free agent market.

Soto may have a number that he signs for today, but clearly it would have to be a staggering, record setting figure.
 

jon abbey

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Mookie insisted he was going to free agency until he got traded and the Dodgers bludgeoned him with a sack of money.

At some point, everyone has a number. Maybe Soto does hold out because he’s so young and can probably get two insane contracts if he stays healthy.
Mookie wasn't a Boras client plus all of the Covid uncertainty at that time made that a special case.
 

jtn46

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No way Soto was accepting a salary under $30 million. Maybe mid-$30 millions because they’re buying out 2 arb years, but Correa got $35 million, Scherzer $43 million, I think you have to get to a minimum $37 million. It’s strange to say 15/$440 is insulting but like, 12/$440 with some options would have been a true “he just doesn’t want to be here if he says no” offer.
 

NDame616

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I feel the Nats offered it to him knowing he won't take it. On the open market he would get about $40M

Now the Nats can tell their fans "sorry we tried!!" And unload him
 
I find the question of whether acquiring Soto would be a good idea or not to be pretty interesting.

First and foremost, I'm operating from a couple of assumptions here:

  • Acquiring Soto would require a major investment from the farm and extending him (if possible) would require a massive contract
  • Teams can generally expect a large portion of their value to come from cost-controlled young players graduating from the farm or acquired by trade
The question of whether it's wise to commit resources to long term deals for both Devers and Soto is very relevant. If it's an either/or question and Devers is open to extending/resigning in Boston for the right offer, then I think it's a no-brainer to extend Devers. Soto is the superior player, but the acquisition cost would surely more than offset that advantage.

So the only scenario really worth considering is if the Sox are able to extend Devers and acquire Soto, which includes versions where we either extend Soto or don't.

Over the next year or two, I do not think the Red Sox are in a great position relative to the rest of the division. Every team in the division is competitive or poised to become competitive. The Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays all have farm systems that are a little more advanced than the Red Sox, while the O's have talent that is expected to land soon but also have significant talent likely arriving in '24/'25. So our biggest rivals are likely going to be adding more talent than we are over the short term, but that may start to flip in '24/'25. That's also around when the Jay's young core is going to start getting more expensive.

Trading for Soto now would likely heavily compromise the mid-decade crop of prospects while significantly improving the team in the short run. The Red Sox with Soto would likely be very competitive this year and in '23, and quite possibly in '24 depending on what happens with free agency. After that though I think there is a real risk that the Red Sox would turn into a stars-and-scrubs type roster as there are only so many holes you can fill via free agency. If they extend Soto AND Devers then that might be enough of a core, but I think it would get dicey and there's massive downside if one of those two goes into steep decline (perhaps following an injury).

If the Sox keep their prospects they could be in the ascendency during a window in which other franchises in the division could likely be in decline. If Soto does go to free agency, then the Sox would have an opportunity to try to sign him at a time that roughly coincides with the introduction of a great core of prospects. That's also a scenario where the team affording both Devers and Soto would be more realistic, as there would likely be a lot of cheap talent on the roster to offset the big contracts.

I think the highest floor option is to trade for Soto as, barring injury, that basically ensures that the team will be competitive for a couple of years.

Keeping the prospects has a lower floor (if they don't pan out) but a higher ceiling, especially if the Sox then sign Soto as a FA.

Personally I'd come down on the side of not making the trade because I'd prefer to take a risk on the farm system, as that would lead to a longer period of sustained success in the upside scenario and am OK with the Sox merely being in the scrum for the next year or two. I also think that the downside risk of prospects categorically not panning out is a bit less likely than the downside risk of an injury completely derailing a team built around Devers, Soto, and whatever Bloom can cobble together via free agency. A single point of failure like that definitely scares me.
 

cfmoran13

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If he were looking to that he would have resigned with Washington. Out of curiosity, why does he come off as an arrogant asshole?
Maybe I just seem to catch him at the wrong moments. But, I can't count the number of times where I've seen him get pitched inside and he starts glaring and jawing at the pitcher, like it's some huge offense for him to get pitched inside. And, the amount of swagger he carries himself with just comes off as dickish to me. Like, get over yourself! You're not God's gift to baseball! And, maybe I'm projecting all of this on him. That's just how he comes across to me.

I think he thinks he's worth more than that contract offer. And, once again, this is all in my head. Perhaps, he feels like there are better teams out there and he just doesn't want to re-sign with the Nats.
 

glennhoffmania

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No way Soto was accepting a salary under $30 million. Maybe mid-$30 millions because they’re buying out 2 arb years, but Correa got $35 million, Scherzer $43 million, I think you have to get to a minimum $37 million. It’s strange to say 15/$440 is insulting but like, 12/$440 with some options would have been a true “he just doesn’t want to be here if he says no” offer.
Those guys were free agents. Offering 440m to a guy who is 2.5 years away is nuts, and declining it means he does not want to be there. That's his choice and I have no problem with that, but there is no reason to compare his AAV to actual free agents. If they had offered 10/370 he still would've said no.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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For the Nats, this has got to be the worst WS hangover/“bill is due” period since, what, ‘97 Marlins? And I don’t think I’ll be betting on Washington to win the 2025 title, either.
 

axx

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Those guys were free agents. Offering 440m to a guy who is 2.5 years away is nuts, and declining it means he does not want to be there. That's his choice and I have no problem with that, but there is no reason to compare his AAV to actual free agents. If they had offered 10/370 he still would've said no.
And 15 years is such a long time that if Soto took the deal, you probably wouldn't want to take the bet on him still being in baseball by the end of the contract.

If he hits FA, I think he will get more when you factor in the arb money but I don't think it will be that much more. Things like income taxes might matter more if it's truly about the money.
 

Just a bit outside

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Those guys were free agents. Offering 440m to a guy who is 2.5 years away is nuts, and declining it means he does not want to be there. That's his choice and I have no problem with that, but there is no reason to compare his AAV to actual free agents. If they had offered 10/370 he still would've said no.
Soto is going to earn an approximately 21-22 million or so next year and probably breaks the arbitration record of 27 million in the following year. They are basically offering him his last year arbitration salary with a million or so bump. That is a lot to give up even if you are getting some security.
 

glennhoffmania

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And 15 years is such a long time that if Soto took the deal, you probably wouldn't want to take the bet on him still being in baseball by the end of the contract.

If he hits FA, I think he will get more when you factor in the arb money but I don't think it will be that much more. Things like income taxes might matter more if it's truly about the money.
What I've noticed, and what I was told by a former team exec, is that things like taxes don't matter. What these guys care about is setting the bar. They want to be able to say they got the most guaranteed money or highest AAV. That's why debates about whether a guy would rather play in Texas vs California are irrelevant. No one talks about what they take home each pay check. They talk about total value or AAV.
 

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Imagine if a team like Minnesota or Tampa Bay went after him knowing they wouldn't sign him after the 2.5 years, but just to try to get them over the hump in the postseason
 

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Didn’t I read somewhere he is a big Celtics fan?

Soto is exactly the type of guy you empty the farm for.
 

axx

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Soto is going to earn an approximately 21-22 million or so next year and probably breaks the arbitration record of 27 million in the following year. They are basically offering him his last year arbitration salary with a million or so bump. That is a lot to give up even if you are getting some security.
OT but I bet Shohei asks for 40 if he finishes in the Top 5 in Cy Young and MVP.
 

YTF

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Maybe I just seem to catch him at the wrong moments. But, I can't count the number of times where I've seen him get pitched inside and he starts glaring and jawing at the pitcher, like it's some huge offense for him to get pitched inside. And, the amount of swagger he carries himself with just comes off as dickish to me. Like, get over yourself! You're not God's gift to baseball! And, maybe I'm projecting all of this on him. That's just how he comes across to me.

I think he thinks he's worth more than that contract offer. And, once again, this is all in my head. Perhaps, he feels like there are better teams out there and he just doesn't want to re-sign with the Nats.
Fair enough. I had nothing to gauge your asshole comment on. I didn't know if it was because he rejected $440M or something else.
 

chawson

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Seems like they’d need some pitchers, an OF, C, 1B, 2B. If they are going to run a $250-$300M payroll, sure. It would seem to be a dramatic shift right back to what got the last GM canned, no?
What's the reason they shouldn't run a $250-300M payroll? The first CBT threshold will be $241M in 2025, and the tax penalties for exceeding it are much less cumbersome if there's an international draft. There's no salary cap, and no points for surplus value or employing economic reasoning for the sake of it.

Wherever he goes is likely up to Soto. No team is going to give up the moon for him unless there's some understanding of extension parameters. There's no reason David Ortiz couldn't facilitate that discussion, if he hasn't already.

Say the Sox trade Yorke, Houck, Duran, Dalbec, Bello and Verdugo to the Nats for Soto and Corbin. Extend Devers at 10/$300M and Soto at 14/$500M. Here's the team in 2024:

C - Hernandez, Wong
1B - Casas
2B - Story
SS - Downs
3B - Devers
LF - Soto
CF - Rafaela/Jimenez
RF - Cordero
DH - Binelas

Bench options: Arroyo, McDonough, Jordan, Bleis, Hamilton, Bonaci

SP: Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Gonzalez, Winckowski, Crawford, Groome, Seabold
RP: Schreiber, Davis, Ort, Walter, Murphy, German, Mata, Ward, Corbin

That team costs about $200M. I'm estimating arb figures for Pivetta, Cordero, Schreiber and Davis, and there'd be a question whether Soto's extension would cover his final arb years. Sale, Corbin, Pivetta and Cordero's contracts (about $60M) come off the books in 2025, when Mayer hopefully slots in at shortstop.

Soto is a "Top-25 hitter in the history of baseball" kind of player, to the best anyone can tell from here, and he's years away from his prime. If you're the Sox, you see if he wants to be here, and you make it work however possible. But I reject the idea that it would prevent them from fielding a competitive team.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Looks like a fairly mediocre team to me, frankly. Binelas is hitting .119 in AA, and is our Dh? Downs? The rotation? Meh. Assumes a ton of growth from mid tier prospects which seems really optimistic and unlikely.
 

chawson

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Looks like a fairly mediocre team to me, frankly. Binelas is hitting .119 in AA, and is our Dh? Downs? The rotation? Meh. Assumes a ton of growth from mid tier prospects which seems really optimistic and unlikely.
That’s just a baseline. That team would still have $40M under the first CBT threshold to play with, and the ‘25 team would have about $100M. And also the CBT hardly matters.
 

RedOctober3829

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No way Soto was accepting a salary under $30 million. Maybe mid-$30 millions because they’re buying out 2 arb years, but Correa got $35 million, Scherzer $43 million, I think you have to get to a minimum $37 million. It’s strange to say 15/$440 is insulting but like, 12/$440 with some options would have been a true “he just doesn’t want to be here if he says no” offer.
Not only him, but MLBPA doesn’t want him settling. He needs to break the bank.
 

RedOctober3829

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Looks like a fairly mediocre team to me, frankly. Binelas is hitting .119 in AA, and is our Dh? Downs? The rotation? Meh. Assumes a ton of growth from mid tier prospects which seems really optimistic and unlikely.
If you’re looking at an internal DH, Niko Kavadas is the guy.

It’s a pretty rosy outlook to have all of these prospects reach the majors.
 

chawson

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If you’re looking at an internal DH, Niko Kavadas is the guy.

It’s a pretty rosy outlook to have all of these prospects reach the majors.
Kavadas is something else. I didn’t include him in that mock-up because most projections have him reaching the majors by ‘25.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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The Red Sox are worth billions of dollars and bring in tens of millions (probably more TBH) a year. They could keep BOTH of them and be fine.

The Boston Red Sox aren’t poor. We have to stop acting like they are.
Cool strawman. Thanks for reminding us that the ownership group of a MLB franchise isn't "poor." But as you well know, ownership groups vary quite a bit in terms of how much they value winning, how much money they want to milk out of the team, etc. Red Sox ownership has been pretty consistent in terms of how much and how long they're willing to spend over league payroll criteria. To the extent the discussion here implicitly reflects that reality, you'd be more persuasive by outlining why you think this is particular case is one where ownership should feel eager to throw out their operating manual.
 

jon abbey

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That’s going to make for an especially exciting trade deadline, assuming he turns WAS down again.
 

snowmanny

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You don’t make this trade with any thought in mind about the long-term contract he is going to sign in February of 2025. Whoever you are, with the possible exception of the Dodgers, someone is probably going to outbid you. I presume Boras wouldn’t let Soto sign right now for almost any amount, and I bet it would take 10/450 to even make Boras pause. You are trading for 2.5 years and that’s it.

I could see the Orioles making this trade.
 

jon abbey

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You don’t make this trade with any thought in mind about the long-term contract he is going to sign in February of 2025. Whoever you are, with the possible exception of the Dodgers, someone is probably going to outbid you. I presume Boras wouldn’t let Soto sign right now for almost any amount, and I bet it would take 10/450 to even make Boras pause. You are trading for 2.5 years and that’s it.

I could see the Orioles making this trade.
I would guess that the other NL East teams and the Orioles (geographic proximity) would have to strongly outbid all the other teams interested to win this sweepstakes. All else being relatively equal, send him somewhere where your fan base doesn’t have to see him or hear about him very often.
 

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I would guess that the other NL East teams and the Orioles (geographic proximity) would have to strongly outbid all the other teams interested to win this sweepstakes. All else being relatively equal, send him somewhere where your fan base doesn’t have to see him or hear about him very often.
Where could you send him where he wouldn’t get much exposure, Nats fans would never see/hear about him, he definitely wouldn’t immediately sign an extension for the same amount the Nats offered making them look like clowns, and you’d stick it to Boras…..hhhmmmm…..
 

jon abbey

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Where could you send him where he wouldn’t get much exposure, Nats fans would never see/hear about him, he definitely wouldn’t immediately sign an extension for the same amount the Nats offered making them look like clowns, and you’d stick it to Boras…..hhhmmmm…..
Do you think TB would actually go after him hard? He will make a lot of money in his last two years of arb too, $17.1M this year so probably 2/45 or 2/50 for 2023/2024.
 

VORP Speed

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Do you think TB would actually go after him hard? He will make a lot of money in his last two years of arb too, $17.1M this year so probably 2/45 or 2.50 for 2023/2024.
It’s a perfect fit. They’d trade him after 2023. So it’s 1/21, you potentially get 2 stretch runs/playoffs and you recoup a bunch of prospects when you ship him out.
 

jon abbey

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I wonder if there has been research over the past 10 or 20 years of stars being traded towards the end of their contracts, it seems like a huge percentage of them end up being moved to the other league. Mookie to the Dodgers, Machado to the Dodgers, the Lindor and Bauer and Clevinger deals from CLE, Stanton to NY, Matt Olson to ATL.
 

jon abbey

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The AL East is so loaded both now and going forward that it has to make it even harder for GMs to know when to push chips in and mortgage some of their future.

So given that, I will take a quick run at handicapping the odds of the AL East teams for a Soto deal by August 2, I am sure we will read much much more about this in the next couple of weeks.

BAL: If it was just about talent and Elias really wanted Soto at any cost, a Gunnar Henderson/Grayson Rodriguez package would be a strong front-runner and maybe almost enough on its own. But BAL is not swimming in young talent, that would put a big dent in their future (yes, Soto is 23 still, but just controlled through 2024). It doesn't seem like the kind of move they would push hard to make at this point in their hopeful upswing, plus like I said above, I don't see WAS sending him to BAL if there is anywhere else they can send him, and of course there will be.

Odds: under 1 percent

BOS: This would start with Mayer, no way around that, and then a lot of it depends on how much WAS likes him compared to the other top prospects offered. BOS also I am not sure has enough excess young talent for this to make enough sense at this point in their cycle, but if Chaim wanted to push hard and he was willing to mortgage the farm, I don't think it's impossible. Also Soto seems to be a Celtics fan, not that he will get much of a vote in this, I guess, but he certainly will after 2024.

Odds: 3 percent

NYY: Obviously the situation I know the best...

Cashman is generally a pretty cautious GM in terms of big risks, he did trade for Stanton but gave up close to no talent there while also getting rid of Starlin Castro's useless deal which allowed them to slot in Gleyber at 2B right away. There is so much that we don't know about which players Cashman is slotting in long-term or planning on going hard after from other organizations, but NY I think is one of the teams that could offer a compelling package and still put a very good team around Soto. Volpe/Dominguez plus 4-5 potential stud pitchers, that has to be very tempting and NY churns out stud pitching prospects now under Matt Blake. Cashman has shown nothing in his history that says he will take this big a swing though, as opposed to his bringing in guys like Clay Holmes and Jose Trevino and Matt Carpenter at minimal cost, all three acquired in the past 12 months for four underwhelming prospects combined. There has never been someone like Soto available though, let alone for 2 1/2 years, so the more I roll this around in my head, the more it makes potential sense to me (and I'm sure to a lot of other actual GMs, heh).

Odds: 17 percent

TB: It does make sense in the way that @VORP Speed explained above, but what is the package they could offer to compete with the NY one I suggested (Volpe/Dominguez and 4-5 genuine SP prospects) above? I don't think baseballtradevalues does a great job keeping up with the actual rapidly changing value of specific prospects, so I am genuinely asking what you think their best offer might be.

Odds: 3 percent unless your offer is more impressive than I can see possible.

TOR: They have the most aggressive front office currently in the division and hence the worst farm system of the five, but they have shown themselves willing to bid as much as they have to to get their trade targets, so I don't rule them out on anyone available currently. The issue they face (similar to the Mets) is that their best prospect to lead a trade package is a C (Moreno), and Kelbert Ruiz is one of the few pieces WAS has in place already, or hopes they have in place. But a Moreno/Martinez/Tiedemann/Groshans offer I think would have to at least get them in the discussion, definitely not ruling them out.

Odds: 10 percent

These obviously made-up odds are assuming he is actually traded by Aug 2, so the other 29 non-WAS teams add up to 100 total. The Dodgers are probably the favorite overall IMO, they figured out the deal for Scherzer/Turner deal with WAS last year and are always seemingly looking to consolidate some of their endless stream of prospects into pricy superstars. I wouldn't be surprised if they got both Soto and Luis Castillo actually. I haven't gone through team by team but the Dodgers would maybe be somewhere at 25 or 30 percent IMO.