Red Sox in season discussion
- Thread starter Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat
- Start date
I agree. Xander was in the right position as cut off for a throw to 3rd. The ball should not have come to him (and, once it did, he should have done more than wave at the throw). Since there was a possibility for a play at the plate, Dalbec needed to get in position to be the cut off to the plate and should have taken charge of the play since he could see both the runner and the ball. And, it goes without saying that Refsnyder needed to make a good throw. All three deserve some criticism but I think Dalbec is the prime culprit.
At a minum, it is time to bring in a first baseman. I think the team can live with some combo of Duran, Franchy, Kike (eventually), JBJ, Refsnyder or equivalent in CF and RF moving forward. But they can't function with terrible defense at 1B and no offense from Dalbec.
There's no water to be thrown because THEY'RE NOT TRADING BOGAERTS. Nothing is affecting a trade that simply isn't happening.
Honestly, its like people just want to play roto-GM than spend any time thinking about what might actually happen in the real world.
There are 15 games until the trade deadline.
1 TB
1 HOU
3 NYY
3 TOR
3 MIL
4 CLE
Red Sox playoff odds have gone from 80% to 55% already. There is a clear path where they could be sellers. It would take a continued disaster, but this is all about the numbers. If their playoff odds are like 40% I wouldn't be shocked at all if they asked Bogaerts to waive his NTC.
1 TB
1 HOU
3 NYY
3 TOR
3 MIL
4 CLE
Red Sox playoff odds have gone from 80% to 55% already. There is a clear path where they could be sellers. It would take a continued disaster, but this is all about the numbers. If their playoff odds are like 40% I wouldn't be shocked at all if they asked Bogaerts to waive his NTC.
Josh Bell's been mentioned a ton. So has Cron. Christian Walker or Nathaniel Lowe would both be improvements over Dalbec.
Corner OF is a little less obvious, but there's about 6-8 teams to take a look at for trade candidates. We've got a whole trade deadline thread dedicated to it.
Despite everyone getting down about the team right now, they're still 15-13 over their last 30, which is honestly impressive given that they were rolling out a starting rotation of Pivetta and dreck for a good portion of that time. Hell, they went 20-6 as recently as June. And I'm not saying that they're playing their best baseball right now - they aren't and it sucks to watch. But they've shown they're a better team than this.
It is a good thing the trade deadline was pushed back. This should allow the Sox to get healthy and put out the best team possible. It would suck if the deadline hit and there was uncertainty due to players not yet back. This way, whatever Bloom decides to do at the deadline, he is doing with full knowledge of the team and how it operates.
Those are players that are obvious upgrades over Dalbec but what is the obvious move to acquire said players? Who is the best prospect you are willing to trade in a deal for a 1b bat? Anyone better than Jay Groome? Is Jay Groome enough?
Is it time to start thinking about being both buyers and sellers at the deadline? If someone wants to overpay for one of the UFA’s like Eovaldi/JD/Vaz, this stretch has given me enough info that they aren’t a real threat to make a playoff run that they should do it. However, they can still make the playoffs and if they could pick up a rental 1B/OF/RP without giving up real assets (i.e. not top 10 prospects) they should explore that too. They’re in a tough spot, but ultimately further fortifying the farm by trading a JD or an Eovaldi may make the most sense in a year where it would take an out of nowhere run to go through the Yankees and Astros.
First baseman (Dalbec) should have been in the middle of the infield to take the throw. From what I could see at the tail end of the clip, he wasn’t there. So basically, Refsnyder had no one to throw to. He shouldn’t be throwing home, because then the runner from first goes to second.
If they trade for Cron or Bell, their playoff lineup is:
Durran
Devers
J.D Martinez
Bogaerts
Bell/Cron
Story
Verdugo
Vazquez
Franchy/Kike
Playoff rotation could be Sale/Eovaldi/Pivetta/Wacha
Playoff Pen of Houck/Whitlock/Schreiber/Strahm/Taylor/Sawamura/Diekman/some possible combination of Hill/Paxton/Crawford/Winckowski/new arm.
I don't see how a rough couple weeks in July where a lot of these pieces are currently missing would lead anyone to think this roster can't make a deep playoff run in October.
Please get a real first baseman though, Bloom, please.
Durran
Devers
J.D Martinez
Bogaerts
Bell/Cron
Story
Verdugo
Vazquez
Franchy/Kike
Playoff rotation could be Sale/Eovaldi/Pivetta/Wacha
Playoff Pen of Houck/Whitlock/Schreiber/Strahm/Taylor/Sawamura/Diekman/some possible combination of Hill/Paxton/Crawford/Winckowski/new arm.
I don't see how a rough couple weeks in July where a lot of these pieces are currently missing would lead anyone to think this roster can't make a deep playoff run in October.
Please get a real first baseman though, Bloom, please.
How much of Hosmer's contract would San Diego subsidize? He's owed $13 million for the next three years. He'd be a definite upgrade this year, could provide a flexible safety net for Casas (who I don't think is going to be ready to step in as a regular this year), would be cheap to acquire in terms of prospects, and the Sox might be able to get a prospect coming back depending on the dollars included. If/when Casas is ready next year, they could trade or even release Hosmer.
In the slim chance that Casas is ready this year, it won't be until after the ASB anyway. His DL stint kind of put an end to him being the replacement in 2022.
He's on his 2nd rehab game right now though and is currently 1/2 with a double. His first game, he was 0/1 with 2bb/1k.
If Groome straight-up can get us Walker I'd do that in a heartbeat - BTV has them valued at 3.5 and 3.7, respectively. For Bell, I'd offer Dalbec (9.4 in BTV, probably overvalued) + Groome. For Lowe, I'd consider adding a prospect or two in the 10-25 range (Bonaci, Paulino, maybe German) to get it done. Cron, who knows - trying to figure out what Colorado values as an organization is pretty much impossible. I suspect a package somewhere between Bell and Lowe gets it done.
Who cares about the runner advancing though? The main goal is to prevent the run. The throw to 3rd did not do that. It let it in. Agree on Dalbec’s poor positioning. He continues to be a complete negative out on the field in basically all facets. I’m just tired of watching him. He doesn’t belong.
You are seriously undervaluing Paulino if you'd be willing to get rid of him before German. I'd value him higher than Groome and Dalbec. He has a serious chance of being a top 100 prospect in a year or two. He is not a "throw in" like Bonaci, German and maybe even Groome.
I'd hate to move him but he's probably the answer to "best prospect I'd trade." Maybe Chris Murphy. They need Josh Winckowski.
The only place he had to throw the ball was probably to Downs, who could have run it in and stop any further advance. But we're talking about a play where the throw was bad, Dalbec was mispositioned and Xander seemed to be indecisive about what to do ... there's plenty of fault there
Yeah, not putting it all on Refsnyder. It was a complete failure and a joke play by people who are paid to supposedly know how to play baseball. These mental mistakes are simply pathetic.
And they make them constantly.
The other night on the ill-advised throw home from Cordero, Vasquez was starting to call time with the home plate umpire thinking there's no way Cordero was going to throw it. He's got to signal the 1B to hold onto the ball before doing that, or else he risks being out of position to accept a throw ... which is what happened. of course, Cordero shouldn't have thrown it ... but the lack of communication led to another run.
When's there's these many fundamental mistakes -- including, for instance, the Verdugo pickoff -- it's fair to ask why they keep happening. It's not the knee-jerk foolish reaction of the manager and coaching staff not teaching them how to play. It's as though they have team-wide zoning out at times.
I’d love to hear Cora’s real take here. Too bad MLB isn’t like football where you have the depth to bench people who constantly mess up. That Verdugo play was insta-bench worthy.
I thought this quote from this morning was telling. Cora noting that the Rays are also dealing with a lot of injuries:
“There’s a lot of moving parts, but you know what? They have a lot of moving parts,” Cora said. “They have a lot of injuries. They keep playing. They play 27 outs and they’re playing good baseball. They’re pitching. They’re hustling. That’s why they keep winning. There’s no surprise. It’s not analytics or this or that. They play 27 outs. They play hard. When you see them on the other side, it’s impressive what they’re doing. They’ve got a lot of injuries, too, and they’re playing very, very hard.”
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/07/alex-cora-calls-out-boston-red-sox-for-sloppy-play-its-costing-us-games-he-says-after-third-straight-loss-to-rays.html
Fwiw, Cora took the blame for the Verdugo play.
https://nesn.com/2022/07/red-soxs-alex-cora-takes-responsibility-for-alex-verdugo-getting-picked-off/
Somewhat, but what's he's saying there is that he wanted to change it up a bit offensively and it backfired. What he's NOT saying (and he never points a finger individually) is that, even if the intent was to be more aggressive, Verdugo misread the elements of the moment.
I have been a voice crying in the wilderness for Aguilar since the off-season. There was a nice highlight of him on Quick Pitch the other day, and I just sighed.
I think he may be indicating that IF the RS want to play that kind of ball (and he'd like them to), they need more work on it. The lack of preparation for such plays is a failure of the coaching staff.
That's another way to read it, but you can coach it nine ways from Sunday and if, in the moment, the player screws up, all the coaching in the world won't help. They could have, for instance, coached Verdugo to take just so much of a lead and not a secondary lead until Cordero made contact with the ball. If Verdugo acts on anticipation, though, the coaching goes out the window
Since, as @absintheofmalaise put it, he called them out without calling them out, saying they need to work on it more is another way of saying the players aren't focusing on the play at hand.
I agree that some blame falls on the coaching staff, but these guys have been through drills about where to throw the ball in different situations and what their responsibilities are since they've been in Little League.
Fair enough, I'm not as closely tied into the prospect world as I'd like to be, so that was probably an error on my part. Is there something I'm missing with Paulino? A contact hitter in A ball with average arm strength, speed, and low power - who also slid down on the defensive spectrum - doesn't sound that intriguing to me. Seems like a lesser Matt Lugo.
Yeah, I mean there are some guys - Edgar Martinez, the Marvelous Molinas - who are gonna be stapled to the base. They’re not the ones who are going to ever be aggressive. For everyone else, it’s a question of team philosophy. If the Sox are emphasizing that they want more aggression from guys like Verdugo, that does tell them to lengthen their leads and gives them the discretion to take a base when the opportunity arises. But every freakin player knows there’s a difference between caution, aggression, and stupidity. You can coach them, but stupid decision-making is on the player. Verdugo was stupid.
He's just a really well rounded player with no real holes projected in his game. He's also young enough to grow into some more power.
FWIW, Soxprospects.com his him 12th, Lugo 15th and Groome 16th.
If I recall correctly, most places had Paulino ranked higher than Drew.
Do we really think Josh Winckowski isn’t tradable? He seems like exactly the kind of guy you might move. He’s been decent, but what’s the upside for a guy who doesn’t strike many out? Feels like he could be Kason Gabbard in a deal (although hopefully he brings back more than Eric Gagne).
Going back a day or so, couldn't they DFA Diekman to make a spot for Taylor? He can't possibly be worse, can he?
If we got the exact version of Eric Gagne that was pitching up until he showed up at Fenway- we’d be ecstatic around here.
Was this a point about trading for “established” relief arms?
Now now, you’re just going to ruin the positivity by pointing out facts.
It’s pretty obvious the Sox made a major mistake in both moving Whitlock out of the pen to make him a mediocre and then injured starter and by keeping Dalbec instead of Schwarber for 1B. Both decisions will be the biggest reasons the Sox will miss the playoffs should that happen.
Still haven’t won a single series against a divisional opponent all season. 0-19-1. It’s mid July.
I resisted the urge to post "give it time" as an homage to an old friend last night. That phrase is just too sacred.
Nonsense. Houck is not the shutdown guy that Whitlock is.
It weakened the pen immeasurably and they got nothing from it as Whitlock was nowhere as effective in the rotation. Plus he got hurt. Plus the team went to hell the second they did it.
I’m wrong most of the time but when I’m right I’m very right, and goddamnit I’ve been right about this since the moment they moved Whitlock to the rotation.
And I’m not going to stop saying it until Whitlock is back in the pen where he belongs and they leave him there. This whole situation has been a stupid fiasco.
People were screaming for months that the Sox didn't have a closer. Whitlock was only pitching twice a week in relief. Houck has been nearly perfect since they moved him into the closers role, a role that there isn't much reason to think Whitlock would be able to match.
Edit:
Some more actual numbers, assuming I did the math right:
Whitlock before they moved him to the pen: .53 wpa in 9 innings, .059 per inning pitched
Houck since they took him out of the rotation: 1.77 wpa in 31 innings, .054 wpa per inning pitched
So on a per inning basis when they were full time relievers they've been about equal in terms of actually adding to wins.
Whitlock is great, but in terms of his actual value in contributing to wins over a full season it's somewhat limited if they're only going to use him in the multiple inning twice a week role instead of being available almost every day like Houck is.
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The Red Sox record with Whitlock in the pen was 7-7. With him in the rotation it's 22-20. On the IL, it's 18-16. By winning percentage the team is best when he's not on the roster.
