I am going to jump the gun before the first IG video of him draining 3s comes out and say next year will be the year!
That's leaving out the part where the Cs hit at 22, and possibly 26 in those 2 drafts.GS hits at pick 28 in the 2019 draft. Boston missed at 14 in both 2019 and 2020. Warriors get a title.
You are right. 22 and 26 were lousy off the bench in the Finals. 28 for the Warriors wasn't’, and helped them get a title.That's leaving out the part where the Cs hit at 22, and possibly 26 in those 2 drafts.
Also where GS may have missed badly on #2 overall.
David Kahn cost the Celtics a title.Warriors drafted an all-timer in 2009 while the Celtics drafted Lester Hudson. Warriors get a title.
Without 22 they lose to the Bucks in round 2 and don't even get to the finals to be lousyYou are right. 22 and 26 were lousy off the bench in the Finals. 28 for the Warriors wasn't’, and helped them get a title.
The Wolves miraculously trading Mike Miller and Randy Foye for a mid lotto pick AND getting back their own pick in the KG trade and drafting TWO guards but not the right one is an all-time whiff. Of course, had they drafted Steph they’d probably have messed him up somehow anyway.David Kahn cost the Celtics a title.
This draft was prior to analytics being fully embraced by executive decision makers. Harden’s detractors cited lack of his shot creation and ability to be aggressive enough offensively at the next level……despite metrics showing how he was among the best finishers at the rim in college that year. I didn’t see much of Harden in college but it sounds similar to how a college zone can falsely influence evaluators like how Jaylen and TL’s skillset was able to be shown in a college system. There were many people who doubted Curry leading into the draft especially how he would have trouble defending a position in the league with his physical shortcomings…….then the league changed. In large part due to Curry. Crazy.Kinda crazy, the Wolves took three guards and end up with Rubio, Flynn, Ty Lawson. Imagine an alternate world where they draft Curry, DeRozan, and Jeff Teague? And the grizz taking Thabeet instead of Harden or Curry….woof.
We all know Grant started 0-30 from 3 so there’s still some sort of chance at a breakthrough.From the Athletic: https://theathletic.com/3373121/2022/06/20/boston-celtics-offseason-questions/
"“In practice, it’s there,” Nesmith said. “In workouts, it’s there. It’s just as soon as the game starts, it’s mental of pressing and putting a lot more pressure on each shot that I take because I haven’t been making them, instead of just shooting the ball the way I shoot it every single day. So that’s why I just say I’m needing to take that mental break and get back to doing what I do at a high level during games.”
Nothing surprising, but at least he understands the issue.
Consistent minutes would help as he knows he's going to play whether or not the next shot goes in. Hopefully Ime can develop AN next year knowing that the Jays need to have their minutes limited at least in the beginning of the season.From the Athletic: https://theathletic.com/3373121/2022/06/20/boston-celtics-offseason-questions/
"“In practice, it’s there,” Nesmith said. “In workouts, it’s there. It’s just as soon as the game starts, it’s mental of pressing and putting a lot more pressure on each shot that I take because I haven’t been making them, instead of just shooting the ball the way I shoot it every single day. So that’s why I just say I’m needing to take that mental break and get back to doing what I do at a high level during games.”
Nothing surprising, but at least he understands the issue.
It's also worth noting that by many metrics Poole was the worst rotational player in the league for a very long period of time in 19/20 (I'm going off either a Lowe or Russillo pod from midway through the playoffs that I don't have time to go back for details on here). But the warriors basically tanked that season so he still got minutes and was able to develop. Do you think if Poole was drafted by the Celtics at 14 he would've gotten the same amount of run and developed the same way?GS hits at pick 28 in the 2019 draft. Boston missed at 14 in both 2019 and 2020. Warriors get a title.
I'm not that high on him as a breakout guy, but Nesmith graded out pretty well on D this year. I think the thing with Nesmith is people see his fatal flaw being shooting (it is, though he has other flaws) and see that in college he could shoot well (though SSS) and say... okay if the shot shows up he's a rangy wing with solid D and a good 3 that's an NBA bench player.Man, I don't understand any optimism for Nesmith at this point. The comments above (including the reference to Grant's incredible 3 point outage at the start of his career) all read like descriptions of a player halfway through his rookie year, not a guy who just finished his 2nd season (plus 5 playoff series). Would he look better if he'd gotten more playing time on worse teams? Maybe, but that's the case for 90% of NBA players. The one's that last beyond their rookie deals are either impact players (Nesmith is not and will never be that) or learn to be solid role players. Two years in, and there's nothing positive to say about him. I guess he's got good defensive energy, but it's more likely to result in being out of position and stupid fouls than it is in effective defense. His shot looks nice, but rarely seems to go in. He's under contract for another year, but at this point his only value is as a moveable contract.
At this point, even Romeo had showed more (as a useful defender) and his excuses were better (two covid shortened seasons, plus multiple bad injuries). Honestly, do we even know that Nesmith is a good shooter? As a freshman in college he shot 34% from 3 in 32 games. As a sophomore, he shot 52% from 3 in 15 games. In two seasons and 98 games in the NBA he's shot 32% from 3, and in 20 playoff games he's shot 20% from 3. 4 years and 165 games removed from high school, he's been a very good shooter for a small fraction of that time. I liked the pick and it seemed a worthwhile gamble based on what appears to be an extremely small sample, but every inch of his performance screams bust so far.
It's been reported that AN had a streak of 221 3Ps without missing 2 in a row (a Cs practice record). You can't do that without being a good shooter.Honestly, do we even know that Nesmith is a good shooter?
I assume the Celtics worked him out and he showed some ability to shoot in that workout. Certainly draining 3P in warm-ups is different than a game situation - absolutely. But, if someone can be a lights out shooter in practice there is at least a hope they could be a lights out shooter in games. Completely agree he has sucked in games. But, he has sucked so bad, I feel like there's a chance it's just some sort of mental thing that will flip and he'll be good.Honestly, do we even know that Nesmith is a good shooter?
Practice is practice. It was once reported that Shaq hit 80% of his free throws in practice. Practice reports are what we lean on when we don't have other evidence in front of us. Even in summer league last year he wasn't exactly standing out from 3 (36%).It's been reported that AN had a streak of 221 3Ps without missing 2 in a row (a Cs practice record). You can't do that without being a good shooter.
So yes, he's a good shooter. He's not a good player right now for whatever reason but given the way the ball is spraying it's clear that his mechanics abandon him during games. When I watch him, I'm also thinking that he's super unsure whether he should shoot at any given time - even he plays on the bench unit, he's pretty deferential and he's not out there just chucking the ball at the rim (unlike Stauskas).
He's a super hard worker. If I had to bet, I'd bet on him figuring things out eventually. I don't know if it will be with the Cs though.
Yeah. I loved him at Vandy and was so excited about the pick but I am pretty much writing him off at this point. Some guys never adjust to the speed of the game at the next level even if the skills are there. I think he’s one of them although he’s obviously young enough to prove me wrong. Will always respect the hustle though.So far I’d estimate about 60% of Nesmith’s in-game shots have looked just atrocious coming out of his hands. No chance of going in at any point. He has been so far in his head as a pro it’s hard to know what the actual shooting talent is.
The weird part is his biggest weakness in the NBA (shooting) was his biggest strength in college. Maybe I’m missing something, but I never thought he looked overmatched when he’s on the court. Wouldn’t he be a viable rotation player if he could shoot above 35% from 3? Further, it seems like the main reason he can’t do that is psychological. If I was a bad team with a veteran player that the Cs were interested in I’d be happy to pick up Nesmith. If he had a full season of starter minutes on a team that doesn’t care about winning, I think he’d quickly overcome whatever mental barrier he has that is preventing him from being able to shoot during games.Yeah. I loved him at Vandy and was so excited about the pick but I am pretty much writing him off at this point. Some guys never adjust to the speed of the game at the next level even if the skills are there. I think he’s one of them although he’s obviously young enough to prove me wrong. Will always respect the hustle though.
It may be a little bit mental but to me it’s primarily physical. He doesn’t possess the natural foot quickness to compete defensively without exerting max effort which he’s capable of doing in short bursts. His coaches need him to be able to defend to earn minutes. The problem is that he’s so bad as a natural individual defense due to his poor lateral foot speed/quickness he must ramp up the effort so high to be passable that the game is moving too fast for him to slow it down on the offensive end.The weird part is his biggest weakness in the NBA (shooting) was his biggest strength in college. Maybe I’m missing something, but I never thought he looked overmatched when he’s on the court. Wouldn’t he be a viable rotation player if he could shoot above 35% from 3? Further, it seems like the main reason he can’t do that is psychological. If I was a bad team with a veteran player that the Cs were interested in I’d be happy to pick up Nesmith. If he had a full season of starter minutes on a team that doesn’t care about winning, I think he’d quickly overcome whatever mental barrier he has that is preventing him from being able to shoot during games.
Go back 12 months, and I am sure this board was full of comments like "Man, I don't understand any optimism for Grant at this point." There was some reason, because if his shooting in college, to think that Nesmith could be more of a plug and play guy in the NBA. That has proven false but he's shown enough in limited minutes not to write him off completely. Most NBA players need more than 1,200 minutes to figure things out.Man, I don't understand any optimism for Nesmith at this point.
I would give Hauser a much greater chance to have a role here. He’s actually one of my handful of guys around the league that I have marked for making a leap.No doubt Nesmith had a setback season after finishing his rookie year on an upswing. Aaron's lack of development was one of the few things that didn't work out for the Celtics. You can't win them all.
At this point, the C's have an abundance of roster spots that need to be filled out on the cheap. I'm old enough to remember how useless & expendable Grant was last summer. and TimeLord before that. The one thing we definitely learned is how unimportant the first 40 regular-season games are to the overall outcome. I'd like to see if Pritchard, Nesmith and Hauser can force their way into the bench rotation with their shooting and then access at the trade deadline before writing any of them off.
That's fair. Hauser seems to have much more body control than Nesmith on both sides of the floor.I would give Hauser a much greater chance to have a role here. He’s actually one of my handful of guys around the league that I have marked for making a leap.
I know Sam, and he's a great kid who's already shown he's a capable NBA shooter. But if you think Nesmith struggles defensively because of slow feet, you'll find that Hauser is even more limited at the end of the court. He got exploited a fair amount at Virginia, and the NBA, obviously, is a different universe.That's fair. Hauser seems to have much more body control than Nesmith on both sides of the floor.
You wrote an excellent note about Aaron's helter-skelter footwork on D and how it impacts his offense.
Limited defensively is one thing but Hauser from what I’ve seen is a good positional defender and understands him limitations so that is doesn’t affect his shooting. I like what I’ve seen this year as a guy with the potential for the game to slow down for him which I didn’t expect coming out of college.I know Sam, and he's a great kid who's already shown he's a capable NBA shooter. But if you think Nesmith struggles defensively because of slow feet, you'll find that Hauser is even more limited at the end of the court. He got exploited a fair amount at Virginia, and the NBA, obviously, is a different universe.
If Hauser is in the rotation, the C's will have to be willing to accept that tradeoff: shaky defense for elite shooting.
Agreed, under the right circumstances, Hauser could have a nice leapI would give Hauser a much greater chance to have a role here. He’s actually one of my handful of guys around the league that I have marked for making a leap.
I think you can accept deep bench wings with negative D as long as the perspiration is there and they are knockdown 3pt shooters. There are ways to hide that D if you keep him away from starting units.I know Sam, and he's a great kid who's already shown he's a capable NBA shooter. But if you think Nesmith struggles defensively because of slow feet, you'll find that Hauser is even more limited at the end of the court. He got exploited a fair amount at Virginia, and the NBA, obviously, is a different universe.
If Hauser is in the rotation, the C's will have to be willing to accept that tradeoff: shaky defense for elite shooting.
No question Sam understands where he's supposed to be defensively, and he's a much better team defender than one-on-one defender.Limited defensively is one thing but Hauser from what I’ve seen is a good positional defender and understands him limitations so that is doesn’t affect his shooting. I like what I’ve seen this year as a guy with the potential for the game to slow down for him which I didn’t expect coming out of college.
Grant had a really lousy sophomore season, but he showed far more as a rookie than Nesmith did. Imagine Nesmith being on the floor in the closing minutes of game 7 of a second round playoff series, and making the game-clinching block against a much quicker player.Go back 12 months, and I am sure this board was full of comments like "Man, I don't understand any optimism for Grant at this point." There was some reason, because if his shooting in college, to think that Nesmith could be more of a plug and play guy in the NBA. That has proven false but he's shown enough in limited minutes not to write him off completely. Most NBA players need more than 1,200 minutes to figure things out.
How worried are you about teams isolating him in space to expose lateral quickness issues, the way we'd do to a Duncan Robinson type?Limited defensively is one thing but Hauser from what I’ve seen is a good positional defender and understands him limitations so that is doesn’t affect his shooting. I like what I’ve seen this year as a guy with the potential for the game to slow down for him which I didn’t expect coming out of college.
That’s not really happening during the regular season to second unit guys. Maybe by playoff time he’s able to handle himself like Strus does as well but until that time comes I wouldn’t be too concerned. I mean he needs to be passable to not screw up the entire defensive set but he’s so good positionally and seems to be one step ahead mentally I think he could be ok. Wouldn’t bet my life on it but he’s caught my eye as a guy to look out for next season.How worried are you about teams isolating him in space to expose lateral quickness issues, the way we'd do to a Duncan Robinson type?
Yeah, this is about where I am on him. The shot is real and his bbiq is high, so it's easy to get intrigued, just trying to temper that with a look at his weaknesses.That’s not really happening during the regular season to second unit guys. Maybe by playoff time he’s able to handle himself like Strus does as well but until that time comes I wouldn’t be too concerned. I mean he needs to be passable to not screw up the entire defensive set but he’s so good positionally and seems to be one step ahead mentally I think he could be ok. Wouldn’t bet my life on it but he’s caught my eye as a guy to look out for next season.
Exactly how are you gauging his foot speed?It may be a little bit mental but to me it’s primarily physical. He doesn’t possess the natural foot quickness to compete defensively without exerting max effort which he’s capable of doing in short bursts. His coaches need him to be able to defend to earn minutes. The problem is that he’s so bad as a natural individual defense due to his poor lateral foot speed/quickness he must ramp up the effort so high to be passable that the game is moving too fast for him to slow it down on the offensive end.
This really isn’t that uncommon at each level of basketball. The ones who can slow down the offensive end of the floor are ones who also have the athletic ability to slow the game down defensively to allow themselves to find a comfort zone. I’ve never felt Nesmith showed the ability to even slow down the defensive side much less getting to the offensive end.
That’s the nice version.
Right. He has two legit NBA-game ready skills which is two more than a lot of other prospects.Yeah, this is about where I am on him. The shot is real and his bbiq is high, so it's easy to get intrigued, just trying to temper that with a look at his weaknesses.
Primarily his poor technique where he crosses one foot over rather than slide bc he knows he isn’t quick enough to slide to beat his man to the spot. Also, the energy level he exerts to be able to keep his man in front of him, work around screens to close out, that affects his offensive game.Exactly how are you gauging his foot speed?
This is pretty good analysis.Right. He has two legit NBA-game ready skills which is two more than a lot of other prospects.
Primarily his poor technique where he crosses one foot over rather than slide bc he knows he isn’t quick enough to slide to beat his man to the spot. Also, the energy level he exerts to be able to keep his man in front of him, work around screens to close out, that affects his offensive game.
When he’s playing 4Q garbage minutes the flow is much softer, there isn’t as much defensive intensity and he shoots it well during this type of pace. The contrast is really noticeable.
Where's Iversen when you need him.It's been reported that AN had a streak of 221 3Ps without missing 2 in a row (a Cs practice record). You can't do that without being a good shooter.
So yes, he's a good shooter. He's not a good player right now for whatever reason but given the way the ball is spraying it's clear that his mechanics abandon him during games. When I watch him, I'm also thinking that he's super unsure whether he should shoot at any given time - even he plays on the bench unit, he's pretty deferential and he's not out there just chucking the ball at the rim (unlike Stauskas).
He's a super hard worker. If I had to bet, I'd bet on him figuring things out eventually. I don't know if it will be with the Cs though.
How do you tell whether it is a lack of quickness or just poor technique? I don't think Rob Williams could slide during his first 2 seasons.Primarily his poor technique where he crosses one foot over rather than slide bc he knows he isn’t quick enough to slide to beat his man to the spot. Also, the energy level he exerts to be able to keep his man in front of him, work around screens to close out, that affects his offensive game.
This is a defenders instinctual move when they recognize that they cannot slide to beat your man to the spot. I’ve seen coaches get on players in practice, myself included, during drills to not crossover and the very next rep the player still crosses over. Even if you know what you are supposed to do the body is telling you that you aren’t capable of it.How do you tell whether it is a lack of quickness or just poor technique? I don't think Rob Williams could slide during his first 2 seasons.