Love to see this mentioned and I'd be ecstatic if the Pats take him. As a Bama' fan, this guy was everywhere in the title game and was extremely disruptive. Outperformed Dean as well.
2022 NFL Draft Game Thread-Day 1
- Thread starter Ferm Sheller
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I am a little more hesitant with him. He was a guy I was either going to have at 7.75 or a 6.99 and netted out with a 6.99. Oh he’s a prototype and a fit, for sure. 21 though? He’s 51 on the consensus board and 39th on just the NFL evaluator consensus board but that’s still a pretty big reach to chase some ceiling. His biggest issue is he isn’t a great processor… yet. He improved as the season went on.
He’s the kind of player where if I knew what the coaching staff said about his IQ and growth and ability to learn I’d be fine with him being taken higher than where consensus has him (including myself in that). But I don’t so it makes me a little nervous.
If you told me they would trade up in the second after trading back in the first to get more draft capital it would make sense. That or if they really wanted him in the second round. That also makes sense. It’s taking him so high when there are, imo, better players available.
He’s the kind of player where if I knew what the coaching staff said about his IQ and growth and ability to learn I’d be fine with him being taken higher than where consensus has him (including myself in that). But I don’t so it makes me a little nervous.
If you told me they would trade up in the second after trading back in the first to get more draft capital it would make sense. That or if they really wanted him in the second round. That also makes sense. It’s taking him so high when there are, imo, better players available.
He got a sudden push, before this a few people starting talking about him to the Eagles at 18. His odds for 1st LB drafted exploded (he was +2700, now he's +140 and some places have pulled 1st LB drafted all together) maybe it's the Pats rumor, or maybe something else
Phil Perry mocked Quay Walker to the Patriots on TV tonight. Maybe Bill is trying to get the Jets to draft him at 10
HT: @RedOctober3829
Ben Allbright is predicting the Pats Take Lloyd.
To me that indicates they are going to change how they use their linebackers and we are headed to more zone coverage.
Here is my overview of him:
He is incredibly versatile and can cover and pass rush at a very good level. His run defense is hit or miss. He is more of a finesse player and lineman can push him around. He takes good angles and he reads plays well. He is good at backside pursuit. He has work to do as a tackler. He isn’t a Patriots fit in their current scheme because he isn’t physical enough but he would be great on a team that likes their linebackers to run and chase and play zone coverage.
Link to my report. Scroll to bottom for overview. First part is game notes time-stamped for me to be able to go back and look at stuff.
Ben Allbright is predicting the Pats Take Lloyd.
To me that indicates they are going to change how they use their linebackers and we are headed to more zone coverage.
Here is my overview of him:
He is incredibly versatile and can cover and pass rush at a very good level. His run defense is hit or miss. He is more of a finesse player and lineman can push him around. He takes good angles and he reads plays well. He is good at backside pursuit. He has work to do as a tackler. He isn’t a Patriots fit in their current scheme because he isn’t physical enough but he would be great on a team that likes their linebackers to run and chase and play zone coverage.
Link to my report. Scroll to bottom for overview. First part is game notes time-stamped for me to be able to go back and look at stuff.
Just a warning - I am going to do this on mobile off of memory and I am really bad at names. Like I misspelled my own last name on Twitter for 3 years before noticing it bad.
Risers:
Kyler Gordon, Washington, CB
Logan Hall, Edge/IDL or IDL/Edge (depending on the team what they want him to do), Houston
Quay Walker, ILB, UGA
Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State
Drake Jackson, Edge, USC
Fallers:
Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Evan Neal, OT, Alabama (knee injury)
Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson (multiple injuries)
Drake London, WR, USC (foot injury)
David Ojabo, Edge, Michigan (Achilles injury)
Damone Clark, ILB, LSU (spinal fusion)
I am not crazy about Dean, Lloyd, or Walker at 21. I just don't love the value in a really good and deep ILB class. And the smoke with them has been ILB with Walker and Lloyd.
Part of me wonders if this is a smoke screen but Allbright has been right on the Pats before and is very connected - he was first on Kyler to the Cardinals for example. He had them staying at 15 and taking Mac who he expected to slide to them.
Part of me wonders if this is a smoke screen but Allbright has been right on the Pats before and is very connected - he was first on Kyler to the Cardinals for example. He had them staying at 15 and taking Mac who he expected to slide to them.
I listened to Allbright’s pod. He is just guessing. Unlike the other teams where he has sources he said he just thinks Lloyd and Walker are good fits. That’s it. So this might just be a false alarm. I mean the guys connected but he lets you know how connected he is. It’s 30 minutes of self-absorbed talk before he even gets to the draft. I suffered through it to hear why he thought it would be Lloyd and it’s just a guess.
Normally I'm pretty on top of the draft - many of you may recall how high I was on Mac last year. But this year, I've been much more out of the loop. So thanks @SMU_Sox for all your insight. I'm pretty pumped to see what happens the next few days. I think BB is going to get on a multi-year draft roll here, starting with last year's bountiful harvest.
I've hardly followed the draft at all this year.
From what I can tell, there is a lack of blue chip talent near the top of the draft. But how does it look overall in terms of depth from 20-100?
From what I can tell, there is a lack of blue chip talent near the top of the draft. But how does it look overall in terms of depth from 20-100?
Appreciate the kind words. I hope so. I’m a little concerned with taking an off-ball linebacker at 21 with their current and future roster holes. It’s not that the guy you would take at 21 is bad necessarily but it’s a deep ILB class this year and there are more pressing 1-2 year needs.
That’s the sweet spot of this draft. Lots of guys rounds 2-3-4 as potential starters. Then it drops off to backups and what not. A lot more 5th, 6th, 7th, and UDFA talent this year.
Nice vaguebooking here Schefty. This could mean like a hundred different things. Some sort of clarification would be helpful
View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1519676406539694081
View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1519676406539694081
For the record, I've watched a ton of Quay Walker here in GA and I'm not sold on him as a fit for the Pats. I saw him get fooled on misdirection a bunch all season and I'm not sure he's disciplined enough to fit onto a Belichick defense. Love his skills and tools, hate his processing. I think he's kind of Jamie Collins lite and less of a Hightower replacement. Give me Chenal all day long.
I think I can explain.
There are 10-15/18 (at most) first round grades this year. Not a lot. Personally I have 6. Because of that there are like 30-40 guys who could go anywhere from the back half of round 1 until mid day 2. No one knows which 15 of the guys from 15-55 are going in the first vs slipping out.
There are 10-15/18 (at most) first round grades this year. Not a lot. Personally I have 6. Because of that there are like 30-40 guys who could go anywhere from the back half of round 1 until mid day 2. No one knows which 15 of the guys from 15-55 are going in the first vs slipping out.
I firmly believe the Pats trade 21 for a 2nd and a 3rd and take a IDL and ILB with those picks. T/G with the 3rd, S with the 4th. Edge/LB with the 5th, T/G with 6th, CB with 7th. I think an X is taken in the 6th/7th, and then perhaps a specialist. I just don't see a WR taken in the first 5 rounds.
Mooch, I am with you. I have two teams I follow in college. 1) SMU. 2) UGA (my partner went there and their family is right outside of Athens).
My notes on his run defense: His processing was better by the end of the season but still a WIP. UGA subbed him on a lot of run downs. He shows power potential and threw some OL around vs Bama. Played a little more finesse vs Kentucky. He has length, athleticism, burst, power, good tackler - as traits as a run blocker. He isn’t Chenal with power but still in the good range. He should play with more of it.
Notes on his pass rush: His athleticism and power from an initial bull rush is really all he has as far as pass rush moves and strengths. It is a work in progress. He can do twists and stunts. He can scream downhill from his linebacker spot, and he can work off the edge. He needs to develop pass rushing moves as well as getting his timing and arc paths better.
And overall: He flashes quality starter with pro bowl athleticism tools but he is still developing as a player. He only started his final senior year so he has some rawness to him. He also made leaps by the end of the year. I like his traits and his progress and think he has some unique high potential to him. As for a scheme I think he is a scheme diverse ILB who can do some things at OLB. He has the size, athleticism, and length to be versatile. He also needs a lot more seasoning.
Dear Belichick - Please do this instead of taking an ILB at 21. Thanks! Your strategy is so much better. You are getting value trading down and you still get a good player at ILB from a deep pool. Also, LOVE the IDL play. That was my dream scenario for them - take a dynamic nose tackle. Take a guy like Travis Jones who could give you a modern version of Vince Wilfork if he pans out the way I think he will (PFF too FWIW).
My body is, however, ready for the takes re: the Pats trading back being some kind of inherently terrible strategy (when what they really mean is ‘this is BORING’).
You nailed it! Yes! It is a fantastic idea to trade down from 21 this year because the talent is pretty flat until about 62-63. There is just a large chunk of 2nd round kind of players (7's for my scale).
Isn't the issue that every team in the 18-30 range or whatever will be looking to do the same thing? I guess it only takes one trade partner to make something happen, but there might not be much demand for 21.
And there may be less incentive for teams in the low to mid second to trade up.
Hard to gauge without knowing teams’ draft boards and how the draft plays out through 15 plus picks, but I do think it is fair to wonder if a trade back will be more difficult than is typical.
I read Reiss's notes from earlier today and he believes a WR is taken in the first 4 rounds. I just don't see the need, relative value or expending an asset here and adding in the risk variance. The needs are pretty clear in IDL, ILB (2), Edge, T/G (2-3), S, CB.
Certainly. I think MM illustrates this with his point about the first 15 picks. We just don't know yet. Heck, I could see a trade of 21 for a late 2nd and a 5th and 6th or 6th and 7th.
We're totally aligned for sure. The bolded in particular. Walker doesn't play with same raw violence that Chenal does. I think the Pats need a healthy dose of nastiness and aggression from their defense going forward.
Especially now that Ziegler is in Vegas. Otherwise, that would be the target. EDIT: Except they punted the first two days of the draft through trades. Nevermind.
Yes, decent chance any trade down will be at a "discount" but as you said it only takes one team.
Reports are saying KC and old friend Andy Reid have explored moving up 10-12 spots. They have 2 picks in each of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds.
Big fan of Jones as well. If somehow the Pats ended up with him and Chenal while also picking up an extra pick.....that would be a dream scenario.
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I'm blanking on who it was, but someone I was reading recently (maybe Kevin Clark?) was saying that one reason every exec he talked to thought this draft was going to be crazy is that almost everyone, from the Jags on down wants to trade down and almost nobody is looking to trade up. Mentioned some told him, don't be surprised if QBs go earlier than expected just because the teams that need one can't find a trade down into the bottom of the 1st. Also guys like Zion, Davis, maybe Linderbaum, who play positions that usually fall due to positional value concerns get drafted pretty early because positional value goes out the window a bit when the value positions have no floor.
If nobody wants to trade up, then it's not going to be very crazy. It'll be pretty dull and straightforward, since those wanting to trade down will have nobody to trade with.
That appears to be a full quarter.* Bold move.
View: https://twitter.com/MelKiperESPN/status/1519699371142508545
Overall pie size is a little uncertain though.
View: https://twitter.com/MelKiperESPN/status/1519699371142508545
Overall pie size is a little uncertain though.
Good thing he has the fat free Reddi Whip though. Otherwise that might be unhealthy
I wonder if the escalation in WR contracts ends up with more drafted in Rd1 so you get the extra year of control. This is also considered a fairly deep wr class so if you have a borderline 1st/2nd rd grade probably makes sense to grab them in first rd. Not saying Pats should but I bet we'll be surprised by how many wr go in 1st. Especially in such a weak skill class draft otherwise.
I've been on the Travis Jones bandwagon for a little while and think he'd be perfect as a very late 1st, early 2nd round selection. I'd love our first two picks to be him and Leo Chenal or Christian Harris. That would be fantastic, IMO.
I heard Mel Kiper on the radio yesterday or Tuesday with Keyshawn, JayWIll and Max, and he said the Vegas O/U for WR's in the 1st is 5.5. He thinks it will be 7, but could see it going as high as 10!
There are several reliable people who played him Under 38.5 the other day on their information that tied him to several teams in the first round. The opposite with Booth who is allegedly falling.
The 5.5 hasn’t existed in around a week unless some rogue book is charging -350 or higher. Even the 6’s that were juiced up disappeared a couple days ago and I got a couple of those (on the 7 > 5 math). It’s 6.5 across the board now. My biggest positional play is Over 7 Offensive Lineman which could end in a push like WR but 8 is much greater than 6 imo.
Kyle Pitts. Kidding.
So it's tough because for OL I might take Raimann or Zion Johnson. I have heard though Raimann has some medical concerns. I think LT is a pressing need for 2023. If you take Raimann you can slide Wynn over to LG and now you have a good OL. However, can Raimann play in year 1 with his anchor concerns? Not sure. Zion Johnson can plug and play at guard but it's a less valuable position and while I think he could possibly LT I am not super confident about that.
I might go corner. I love Booth but I have heard the medicals are an issue. That concerns me.
I also like edge: Ebiketie is a little rich at 21 but he would be on my short list.
Travis Jones will be there but he's also a little rich by consensus.
It's hard to narrow it down to 1 from those guys but I guess if I HAD to I would take Travis Jones or Ebiketie. I flipped a coin and it came up Ebiketie so that's my final answer until I inevitably doubt myself and edit this. (I won't edit it).