Let's say BB stays on until he retires. What does that mean for the franchise?

BaseballJones

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I'm not worried about the special teams. Not sure why they were so bad this year (outside of Folk), but BB teams are consistently really good in this department so it would surprise me if they weren't back to being a really good ST team next year.

The offense, I think, is in pretty good shape. I am sold on Mac. He made some turnovers - some great plays by the D, some unlucky, and some were totally on Mac. But that's expected in a rookie. In Allen's rookie year he had 12 picks and 8 fumbles. In Kyler Murray's rookie year he had 12 picks and 5 fumbles. He showed toughness and resiliency. He needs to clean some things up and make some improvements, obviously, but I' high on him. He's already league average for a starter (which is pretty awesome for a rookie), and he should get into the top tier in a couple of years.

The RB corps is excellent. Harris and Stevenson are a terrific 1-2 punch. White hopefully will return, though he's a FA so who knows. Bolden, despite his drop yesterday (which was...godawful), was pretty solid all year long.

The OL is pretty good. They weren't as good this year as I hoped they would be, but they were pretty good, and should be pretty good next year. A decision needs to be made on Trent Brown. But the core of that OL is in good shape. Still need to draft more there, but on the whole, that group is ok.

The WRs....I'm higher on the WRs than many/most here. I think Bourne is fantastic. Tough, gritty, athletic - can run with it or make tough catches. He needs to be targeted and used more, but he's a really good football player. Meyers is fine. Nothing special, but fine. He's the kind of receiver who, going up against our 2nd or 3rd corner, would have a field day. I think Agholor is fine - not remotely worth what they're paying him, but that's a separate issue. Those three are fine. But they really could use a major upgrade at that position, a real game-breaker. I'd like each of these guys to be bumped down on the depth chart and have a stud at the top. Not sure that's the priority, as the offense on the whole wasn't the problem.

The TE group is ok. Henry is solid. Jonnu didn't live up to anyone's expectations, but he's still a threat once he gets the ball. He's going nowhere - massive dead cap hit if they cut or trade him. So he's here and they just need to figure out how to use him better.

The defense, though, is a problem. It's SO weird. By almost every metric - yards allowed, points allowed, DVOA, you name it, they were a very good defense this year. But they obviously struggled late in the year. Why was that? Did they just get worn down? Did this reflect their true talent level? Is Josh Allen their kryptonite?

Allen's last six games:
- at TB: 36-54 (66.7%), 308 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 86.0 rating
- vs Car: 19-34 (55.9%), 210 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 91.5 rating
- at NE: 30-47 (63.8%), 314 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 104.4 rating
- vs Atl: 11-26 (42.3%), 120 yds, 0 td, 3 int, 17.0 rating
- vs NYJ: 24-45 (53.3%), 239 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 83.5 rating
- vs NE: 21-25 (84.0%), 308 yds, 5 td, 0 int, 157.6 rating

So in the 4 games against non-NE opponents: 90-159 (56.6%), 877 yds, 5.5 y/a, 7 td, 5 int, 73.8 rating
And in the 2 games against the Patriots: 51-72 (70.8%), 622 yds, 8.6 y/a, 8 td, 0 int, 134.1 rating

I mean....holy smokes they absolutely figured something out.

So how good/bad is the Pats' defense actually? You don't play a whole season being at the top of the NFL in almost every metric, from traditional to advanced, and be a bad defense. It's not possible. Good defenses do have bad days sometimes. Obviously last night was the worst defensive performance in playoff history - not getting a single stop all night long. Not one. Barely even made Buffalo face third down. Unfathomably bad. Not even the worst defense in NFL history would be expected to do THAT, not even against the best offense in NFL history. So what happened?

Well, the front seven disappeared. Couldn't stop the run. In New England's last five games, opponents averaged 157.8 rush yards per game on 156 attempts. That's 5.1 yards per attempt.

Moreover, they fell behind early. In their last 4 losses, opponents all scored early and often, putting the team in a hole right away. They also couldn't get key stops. They also didn't get turnovers. In their 10 wins, they generated 27 turnovers (2.7 per game). In their 8 losses, they generated 4 turnovers (0.5 per game). I mean...there you go right there. In their last 4 losses, they generated just 1 turnover. They had a chance for more, but couldn't hold onto the football. But they struggled to put pressure on the QB late in the year. That, combined with injuries to the secondary, meant for easy pickings for opposing offenses.

Matt Judon disappeared.
- First 13 games: 49 tackles, 13 TFL, 12.5 sacks (3.8, 1.0, 1.0)
- Last 5 games: 8 tackles, 1 TFL, 0 sacks (1.6, 0.1, 0.0)

I mean, that's like two completely different players.

Judon was put on the COVID list on Dec 27, right after the Buffalo game. Did that impact his play? He did ok in the Indy game the week before (5 tackles), but maybe was starting to feel the effects in that 2nd Buffalo game? Who knows. I don't know if Covid was a factor, or if he was banged up, or if teams just figured it out against him, or he ran out of gas, or what. But he was a legit DPOY candidate the first 13 games, and then he completely vanished, and his absence was glaring.

Having the secondary reduced to a lot of backups didn't exactly help either.

So how much of the D is fixable? Everyone is complaining about how they can't compete in this league with their lack of speed, but they didn't NOT play well all year. They finished, by almost every metric, with one of the better defenses in the league. You don't get there by being bad and slow and unable to compete. But they DO need improvements. Hightower and Collins are toast. Van Noy still has something left in the tank but he should be a reserve. They REALLY need guys like McGrone to step in and be studs. Uche being good would help too.

This is a huge offseason for NE. Holes to fill. But the foundation is there for a solid team. Long gone are the days when we should just count on them making the AFCCG. Now fighting for the playoffs is what we should expect. Which is fine. We're back to being normal football fans again.
 

Ferm Sheller

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The WRs....I'm higher on the WRs than many/most here. I think Bourne is fantastic. Tough, gritty, athletic - can run with it or make tough catches. He needs to be targeted and used more, but he's a really good football player. Meyers is fine. Nothing special, but fine. He's the kind of receiver who, going up against our 2nd or 3rd corner, would have a field day. I think Agholor is fine - not remotely worth what they're paying him, but that's a separate issue. Those three are fine. But they really could use a major upgrade at that position, a real game-breaker. I'd like each of these guys to be bumped down on the depth chart and have a stud at the top. Not sure that's the priority, as the offense on the whole wasn't the problem.

The TE group is ok. Henry is solid. Jonnu didn't live up to anyone's expectations, but he's still a threat once he gets the ball. He's going nowhere - massive dead cap hit if they cut or trade him. So he's here and they just need to figure out how to use him better.
They only had 4 competent receivers this year: Bourne, Meyers, Henry, and Brandon Bolden (lol). Harry isn't an NFL player, Agholor was far from "fine" -- he averaged just over two catches and about 30 yards/game, Jonnu may be a threat when he gets the ball, but I wouldn't really know because he hardly ever got it. They can live with Henry and Smith as their TEs, but they need two more bona fide WRs.
 

tims4wins

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I'm not worried about the special teams. Not sure why they were so bad this year (outside of Folk), but BB teams are consistently really good in this department so it would surprise me if they weren't back to being a really good ST team next year.

The offense, I think, is in pretty good shape. I am sold on Mac. He made some turnovers - some great plays by the D, some unlucky, and some were totally on Mac. But that's expected in a rookie. In Allen's rookie year he had 12 picks and 8 fumbles. In Kyler Murray's rookie year he had 12 picks and 5 fumbles. He showed toughness and resiliency. He needs to clean some things up and make some improvements, obviously, but I' high on him. He's already league average for a starter (which is pretty awesome for a rookie), and he should get into the top tier in a couple of years.

The RB corps is excellent. Harris and Stevenson are a terrific 1-2 punch. White hopefully will return, though he's a FA so who knows. Bolden, despite his drop yesterday (which was...godawful), was pretty solid all year long.

The OL is pretty good. They weren't as good this year as I hoped they would be, but they were pretty good, and should be pretty good next year. A decision needs to be made on Trent Brown. But the core of that OL is in good shape. Still need to draft more there, but on the whole, that group is ok.

The WRs....I'm higher on the WRs than many/most here. I think Bourne is fantastic. Tough, gritty, athletic - can run with it or make tough catches. He needs to be targeted and used more, but he's a really good football player. Meyers is fine. Nothing special, but fine. He's the kind of receiver who, going up against our 2nd or 3rd corner, would have a field day. I think Agholor is fine - not remotely worth what they're paying him, but that's a separate issue. Those three are fine. But they really could use a major upgrade at that position, a real game-breaker. I'd like each of these guys to be bumped down on the depth chart and have a stud at the top. Not sure that's the priority, as the offense on the whole wasn't the problem.

The TE group is ok. Henry is solid. Jonnu didn't live up to anyone's expectations, but he's still a threat once he gets the ball. He's going nowhere - massive dead cap hit if they cut or trade him. So he's here and they just need to figure out how to use him better.

The defense, though, is a problem. It's SO weird. By almost every metric - yards allowed, points allowed, DVOA, you name it, they were a very good defense this year. But they obviously struggled late in the year. Why was that? Did they just get worn down? Did this reflect their true talent level? Is Josh Allen their kryptonite?

Allen's last six games:
- at TB: 36-54 (66.7%), 308 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 86.0 rating
- vs Car: 19-34 (55.9%), 210 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 91.5 rating
- at NE: 30-47 (63.8%), 314 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 104.4 rating
- vs Atl: 11-26 (42.3%), 120 yds, 0 td, 3 int, 17.0 rating
- vs NYJ: 24-45 (53.3%), 239 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 83.5 rating
- vs NE: 21-25 (84.0%), 308 yds, 5 td, 0 int, 157.6 rating

So in the 4 games against non-NE opponents: 90-159 (56.6%), 877 yds, 5.5 y/a, 7 td, 5 int, 73.8 rating
And in the 2 games against the Patriots: 51-72 (70.8%), 622 yds, 8.6 y/a, 8 td, 0 int, 134.1 rating

I mean....holy smokes they absolutely figured something out.

So how good/bad is the Pats' defense actually? You don't play a whole season being at the top of the NFL in almost every metric, from traditional to advanced, and be a bad defense. It's not possible. Good defenses do have bad days sometimes. Obviously last night was the worst defensive performance in playoff history - not getting a single stop all night long. Not one. Barely even made Buffalo face third down. Unfathomably bad. Not even the worst defense in NFL history would be expected to do THAT, not even against the best offense in NFL history. So what happened?

Well, the front seven disappeared. Couldn't stop the run. In New England's last five games, opponents averaged 157.8 rush yards per game on 156 attempts. That's 5.1 yards per attempt.

Moreover, they fell behind early. In their last 4 losses, opponents all scored early and often, putting the team in a hole right away. They also couldn't get key stops. They also didn't get turnovers. In their 10 wins, they generated 27 turnovers (2.7 per game). In their 8 losses, they generated 4 turnovers (0.5 per game). I mean...there you go right there. In their last 4 losses, they generated just 1 turnover. They had a chance for more, but couldn't hold onto the football. But they struggled to put pressure on the QB late in the year. That, combined with injuries to the secondary, meant for easy pickings for opposing offenses.

Matt Judon disappeared.
- First 13 games: 49 tackles, 13 TFL, 12.5 sacks (3.8, 1.0, 1.0)
- Last 5 games: 8 tackles, 1 TFL, 0 sacks (1.6, 0.1, 0.0)

I mean, that's like two completely different players.

Judon was put on the COVID list on Dec 27, right after the Buffalo game. Did that impact his play? He did ok in the Indy game the week before (5 tackles), but maybe was starting to feel the effects in that 2nd Buffalo game? Who knows. I don't know if Covid was a factor, or if he was banged up, or if teams just figured it out against him, or he ran out of gas, or what. But he was a legit DPOY candidate the first 13 games, and then he completely vanished, and his absence was glaring.

Having the secondary reduced to a lot of backups didn't exactly help either.

So how much of the D is fixable? Everyone is complaining about how they can't compete in this league with their lack of speed, but they didn't NOT play well all year. They finished, by almost every metric, with one of the better defenses in the league. You don't get there by being bad and slow and unable to compete. But they DO need improvements. Hightower and Collins are toast. Van Noy still has something left in the tank but he should be a reserve. They REALLY need guys like McGrone to step in and be studs. Uche being good would help too.

This is a huge offseason for NE. Holes to fill. But the foundation is there for a solid team. Long gone are the days when we should just count on them making the AFCCG. Now fighting for the playoffs is what we should expect. Which is fine. We're back to being normal football fans again.
While you shouldn’t try to construct your team to beat a single opponent - you have 15 competitors in your conference, and things change very quickly in the NFL - they have a clear problem with the Bills that they need to address. I don’t know enough about either skill / talent or X’s and O’s to specifically identify the problem(s), and obviously Allen is a great player (though I’d hesitate to give him “unicorn” status given his performance against those other teams as you pointed out), but they need to figure out how to be more competitive against that team.
 

lexrageorge

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Sure, but BB is not going to hire a respected DC. It’s part of the reason why his coaching tree is so bad. He’s going to put a loyalist or a stooge in run his system, not get a talented veteran who won’t lick his boots. BB has certainly earned the right, I just wouldn’t play it that way.
This is stupid, didn’t they have Dean Pees as DC at one point? Romeo?
And, prior to New England, he had Nick Saban. Rob Ryan in his first couple of seasons (although he wasn't DC).

Most coaches have young assistants. Belichick has a veteran assistant on the offensive side of the ball in McDaniels.

Meanwhile, replying to some selected points in the post above:

The WRs....I'm higher on the WRs than many/most here. I think Bourne is fantastic. Tough, gritty, athletic - can run with it or make tough catches. He needs to be targeted and used more, but he's a really good football player. Meyers is fine. Nothing special, but fine. He's the kind of receiver who, going up against our 2nd or 3rd corner, would have a field day. I think Agholor is fine - not remotely worth what they're paying him, but that's a separate issue. Those three are fine. But they really could use a major upgrade at that position, a real game-breaker. I'd like each of these guys to be bumped down on the depth chart and have a stud at the top. Not sure that's the priority, as the offense on the whole wasn't the problem.

The TE group is ok. Henry is solid. Jonnu didn't live up to anyone's expectations, but he's still a threat once he gets the ball. He's going nowhere - massive dead cap hit if they cut or trade him. So he's here and they just need to figure out how to use him better.
The problem is that Myers, Agholor are #3/4 receivers on the better teams, not 1/2. None of the team's WR's or TE's are players you truly need to game plan for, and every single playoff team standing after this weekend will have such a player. And after Agholor, the talent falls off dramatically; Harry is simply not an NFL quality receiver.
The defense, though, is a problem. It's SO weird. By almost every metric - yards allowed, points allowed, DVOA, you name it, they were a very good defense this year. But they obviously struggled late in the year. Why was that? Did they just get worn down? Did this reflect their true talent level? Is Josh Allen their kryptonite?
....
Part of the problem with having a lot of older veterans on defense is that the rigor of the regular season eventually catches up to them. Van Noy and Collins could have a solid game or two, but asking them to put it together week after week is just asking too much. Same with Hightower and McCourty. The 17 game season is a grind. And speed is the name of the game in the modern NFL, and if you don't have speed on defense, again, it will get exposed by the better teams.

Judon was shaken up late in the first Buffalo game. I don't know if he was ever on the practice report, as the team had a bye week right after, and he was never on the official game injury report. But that doesn't mean he wasn't dealing with something physical that was affecting his play. Or he could have had lingering affects from his bout of CoVid-19.

The team was up and down all season defensively, but that was masked a bit by their schedule. They played well against Tompa Bay, got torched by Dallas, played poorly against a bad Houston team, then went on a run mostly against the league's lower tier. One exception was the Titans, but the Sons of Mike Vrabel were dealing with a lot of injuries that game. Then there was the hurricane game, which probably helped their numbers.

I don't think they were the 32nd ranked defense in the league or anything. But they did struggle (badly) against the better teams late in the season, which is a sign that the roster is not nearly as good as the statistical rankings would have you believe.

Also, the offense certainly didn't do the defense any favors most games, and that eventually catches up as well. 5 yards/play against Buffalo was a really poor showing.
 

sezwho

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This is stupid, didn’t they have Dean Pees as DC at one point? Romeo?
Thats a fair challenge, but Pees ran Kent to a 17-51 ‘success’ before starting at the bottom with Bill as LB coach. He knew Bill from Navy days with dad.

Pees got promoted to DC after Mangini then went back to LBs at Ravens before another promotion to DC. I don’t think Romeo was doing any more than following Bills orders, and his career wasn’t littered with success after leaving.

It’s hard to quantify, and I see the other side, but I think Bill knows what he wants his coaches to do and just wants it done.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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This was not a team that showed any ability to come from behind and win- they really only did it once and against a lousy Texan team. Their losses all followed a similar pattern of getting down big early. This team really needed to generate turnovers and protect the football to win and when the opposite happened, they lost. 18 turnovers in losses, compared to getting just four. In the seven game win streak, they generated 18 turnovers and only made five.

It’s hard to know what to make of this team. They generally did not play very well against good teams; with their two best wins coming with pretty big asterisks. The offense was mediocre, the defense had solid overall numbers but wilted when it mattered most. The team is lacking in top tier players and has a lot of money tied up in regrettable deals. Personally, I’m not sure what to make of this year and the direction of the team. Winning 7-8 games next year feels as likely as 11-12.
 
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Mystic Merlin

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I do not want JCJ back next year. He talked too much and in big moments got shredded. Last night he was fucking terrible. Lots of Asante in him and I have no use for that.
Moving on from one of the best cover corners in the league because Stefon Diggs took it to him at times will surely NOT help a secondary that will need an infusion of corner talent even if they keep JCJ.
 

BaseballJones

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I do not want JCJ back next year. He talked too much and in big moments got shredded. Last night he was fucking terrible. Lots of Asante in him and I have no use for that.
I want him back. He’s easily one of the best CBs in the league and this team needs all the help it can get defensively. What they need is more guys like him, not fewer.
 

rodderick

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I do not want JCJ back next year. He talked too much and in big moments got shredded. Last night he was fucking terrible. Lots of Asante in him and I have no use for that.
As long as they're replacing JC with a CB of a similar level, I'll have no issues letting him go, but when they decided they had no use for Asante we went through a 5 year stretch of miserable CB play until they traded for Talib and realized you actually need talent at that position to succeed defensively, no matter how well you scheme. Hope they don't repeat that same mistake.
 

kenneycb

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Thats a fair challenge, but Pees ran Kent to a 17-51 ‘success’ before starting at the bottom with Bill as LB coach. He knew Bill from Navy days with dad.

Pees got promoted to DC after Mangini then went back to LBs at Ravens before another promotion to DC. I don’t think Romeo was doing any more than following Bills orders, and his career wasn’t littered with success after leaving.

It’s hard to quantify, and I see the other side, but I think Bill knows what he wants his coaches to do and just wants it done.
His history of DCs in New England has been Romeo, Mangini, Pees, Patricia, Flores, and now Mayo/Belichick. All but the most recent and Pees have left to become HCs. I’m going to take that as they are respected around the league.

To the “yes men” point, that’s pure conjecture unless you have some unique insight to the inner workings of Foxboro.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I don’t know why this team completely fizzled in 4/5 games. Leadership from the coaching staff of players? Is there internal tension in the building? DMC kind of hinted at that with his frustration last game vs the Bills and McKenzie.
It wasn't just DMC. After the first Bills loss, Slater had some pretty concerning comments about the team dynamics. I was surprised there wasn't some discussion here about it. Hearing it from him specifically put some flags up for me.

Matthew Slater put some interesting phrases into play on Monday, beginning with the longtime Patriot getting it out there that “at this point in time, what we have to do is make sure, first and foremost, that we stick together.”

He also said this: “You want to make sure there’s no splinter in what you’re doing. No splinter in the locker room, no splinter between the players and the coaches. You want to keep your head down and stay as positive as you can and just fight through it.”
...
But what really jumped out was this: “I mean, we have some choices here. I think one of the choices is to let this just spiral out of control. And the other choice is to put our feet on the ground and make a stand and fight. And I believe in the character of the men in this locker room. I believe they will fight no matter the circumstances, even though we’re being faced with some adversity right now. I believe that’s the choice that we’re going to make, but it’s not going to be an easy choice. It’s not something that we’re just going to show up and things are going to happen. And we’ve experienced this early on in the season. It’s going to require a lot of tough decisions and a lot of tough football, and it’s going to be hard.”
...
“There’s a lot going on, obviously, what happens here in the stadium in regards to football, but tough decisions involve decisions that are made outside of the building,” he said. “Coach always talks about us eliminating the distractions, not just inside the building, but outside the domain. And those things aren’t easy to do as we live our personal lives outside of here and things come up. You have to make choices. You know, maybe you make a decision not to go out and to stay in and get your rest. Then you make a decision not to have that extra piece of cake as opposed to putting stuff in your body that’s going to help you. So I think those tough decisions are made inside the building, and they’re made outside the building.”
 

Eddie Jurak

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I want him back. He’s easily one of the best CBs in the league and this team needs all the help it can get defensively. What they need is more guys like him, not fewer.
It's a question of whether those dollars could be better deployed elsewhere. Letting him go opens up a massive hole in a secondary that was already looking a bit like swiss cheese. Can the dollars be better spent elsewhere? I don't know.

It might be the case that the team needs to look at a 2-year rebuild of the D.
 

cornwalls@6

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His history of DCs in New England has been Romeo, Mangini, Pees, Patricia, Flores, and now Mayo/Belichick. All but the most recent and Pees have left to become HCs. I’m going to take that as they are respected around the league.

To the “yes men” point, that’s pure conjecture unless you have some unique insight to the inner workings of Foxboro.
IIRC, in Patriot Reign, Holley's all access book about the early 2000's championships, quite the opposite of a yes-men culture was portrayed. Dissenting opinions were not only tolerated, they were encouraged. As long as the agenda was to improve the team, and you could back it up with evidence(data, film, etc.).
 

Super Nomario

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It wasn't just DMC. After the first Bills loss, Slater had some pretty concerning comments about the team dynamics. I was surprised there wasn't some discussion here about it. Hearing it from him specifically put some flags up for me.
Mac alluded to the team having a shitty week of practice after the Colts loss, too. I wonder if some of the new FA aren't falling in line with the Patriot Way.

Thats a fair challenge, but Pees ran Kent to a 17-51 ‘success’ before starting at the bottom with Bill as LB coach. He knew Bill from Navy days with dad.

Pees got promoted to DC after Mangini then went back to LBs at Ravens before another promotion to DC. I don’t think Romeo was doing any more than following Bills orders, and his career wasn’t littered with success after leaving.

It’s hard to quantify, and I see the other side, but I think Bill knows what he wants his coaches to do and just wants it done.
They did also try to make Schiano the DC when Flores left a few years back.

Snap counts came out today and it mystifies me that Judon only played 22 snaps, Uche 6, and Winovich was a healthy scratch. No wonder we only hit Allen once. I don't know how you can win that way.
 

JimD

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Bill Belichick deserves the undying gratitude of every Patriots fan. In a perfect world, he will get to dictate exactly how his football coaching career ends. We all want that to be with a spirited playoff run and hopefully another championship, but perhaps the man himself will be satisfied with simply leaving his successor in a great place when he moves on to coach emeritus status.

Arguing about or putting up strawmen about whether criticism of Belichick means he may/should/will get 'fired' is silly, because he is never getting fired by the Kraft regime. When the times comes, he will step down gracefully, even if it is not 100% of his own volition.

Do I want him to stay on and lead us into another glorious Patriots era with one more championship contender of his creation? Of course I do. I'm just worried that he may not be up for this anymore. The level of sloppy play, penalties and mistakes we've seen this season are shocking and so unlike a Belichick-coached team. The helpless defense. The coaching staff so often had no answers at all - I get that Josh Allen and the Bills may be just a really bad matchup for this current NE iteration, but how do they come out of a bye week and look so unprepared for the Colts? Round 2 against the Dolphins?

I don't remember the exact story or quotes, but there was the story not long ago about how Bill just wants to coach 'his kind of guys' these days. Is that affecting how the team drafts players and goes after free agents? Is he dismissing difference-makers because he sees their personalities as being unsuited to his preferred coaching and management style? Is that style still valid in the NFL of the 2020's?

I'd just hate to see this become a Jim Boeheim situation where he hangs on too long because he's untouchable while the team's results get worse and worse. I have no idea what the answer is here.
 

Harry Hooper

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Mac alluded to the team having a shitty week of practice after the Colts loss, too. I wonder if some of the new FA aren't falling in line with the Patriot Way.
Bedard wrote this about the D before yesterday's game:

This is the list of guys who are doing their job with regularity, like real Patriots:

Kyle Van Noy
Lawrence Guy
Daniel Ekuale (bench Godchaux for him)
Jamie Collins
JC Jackson
Devin McCourty

Adrian Phillips barely misses the cut because he's only great in the robber role, or when he's playing the run against a bad QB.

That's it. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know what almost all of them have a common.

They've played a lot of games here. They've won a lot of games and titles. And they are true Patriots. The rest are pretenders until they actually do something.
BSJ
 

Super Nomario

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Bill Belichick deserves the undying gratitude of every Patriots fan. In a perfect world, he will get to dictate exactly how his football coaching career ends. We all want that to be with a spirited playoff run and hopefully another championship, but perhaps the man himself will be satisfied with simply leaving his successor in a great place when he moves on to coach emeritus status.

Arguing about or putting up strawmen about whether criticism of Belichick means he may/should/will get 'fired' is silly, because he is never getting fired by the Kraft regime. When the times comes, he will step down gracefully, even if it is not 100% of his own volition.

Do I want him to stay on and lead us into another glorious Patriots era with one more championship contender of his creation? Of course I do. I'm just worried that he may not be up for this anymore. The level of sloppy play, penalties and mistakes we've seen this season are shocking and so unlike a Belichick-coached team. The helpless defense. The coaching staff so often had no answers at all - I get that Josh Allen and the Bills may be just a really bad matchup for this current NE iteration, but how do they come out of a bye week and look so unprepared for the Colts? Round 2 against the Dolphins?

I don't remember the exact story or quotes, but there was the story not long ago about how Bill just wants to coach 'his kind of guys' these days. Is that affecting how the team drafts players and goes after free agents? Is he dismissing difference-makers because he sees their personalities as being unsuited to his preferred coaching and management style? Is that style still valid in the NFL of the 2020's?

I'd just hate to see this become a Jim Boeheim situation where he hangs on too long because he's untouchable while the team's results get worse and worse. I have no idea what the answer is here.
I think what you're alluding to is this:

Bill Belichick said:
On a personal level, I’d say the one thing that I have definitely learned is you’ve got to count on your most dependable people. Might not be your most talented person, but you count on your most dependable people. So, there have been times when I have put, I would say, too much responsibility on people that weren’t dependable and they didn’t come through. And so, whose fault is that? Mine.
or maybe this:
Urban Meyer said:
“I’m always amazed how he takes these non-stars and makes them stars. He takes these players that you haven’t really heard much about and all of a sudden they’re making great plays in the biggest games of the year,” Meyer said via Landof10.com. “I started asking him about it and he made this point to me and I shared it with our team. He said, ‘At this point in my career, I want to coach guys I like. I want to coach guys I want to be around and that’s it.’ He said, ‘I’m not going to coach anybody else.'”
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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The offense scored 10 points last night before the garbage time TD. That's usually not enough to win any game in the NFL. At times over the last few weeks, they struggled to score and Jones had way more turnovers.

At some point, doesn't McDaniel deserve a little more scrutiny? I have always found him to be a very flawed coach who, at times, falls in love with a plan even when it's clear that it's not going to work. (Exhibit A, and I know it was over a decade ago, was his game plan in the first SB loss to the Giants and the obsession with Brady to Moss that only worked out once whereas Brady to Welker was working every time...)

And is it possible the D is over Steve Belichick as defensive coordinator? No one is really talking about his relationship with the players. And I have to wonder, as comical as it sounds, if Judon pissed off some of his teammates with his diatribe about Thanksgiving side dishes and continued comments? Little things like that can often snowball into something bigger if someone feels like it's a personal attack.
 

cornwalls@6

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Is Matt Judon - who loves his free lancing - an example of this?
But Judon was thriving in the system through November. Whether he was free lancing or not, I don’t know. But I doubt Bill would’ve suddenly put the handcuffs on him, based on that production. My guess is we’re going to learn that he was playing through a more serious injury than we knew, and that’s what accounts for the pretty drastic drop off in his play. More broadly, I think the consequences of several poor drafts in a row have come home to roost. I did however, seem to recall some talk that he turned over a lot of the talent evaluation work to his player personnel staff this past off season, and despite the finish to the season, the results on both the FA and draft fronts were pretty encouraging. This roster still needs a significant amount of turnover IMO, but hopefully a better process is in place to do so.
 

Captaincoop

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It feels like Judon is part of whatever is going on. His free fall in impact coincided exactly with the team's late season slide.

Reading between the lines it does seem like there was real tension involved as the coaching staff tried to get Judon to play within the scheme.
 

jsinger121

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It feels like Judon is part of whatever is going on. His free fall in impact coincided exactly with the team's late season slide.

Reading between the lines it does seem like there was real tension involved as the coaching staff tried to get Judon to play within the scheme.
Lets hope he isn’t Adalius Thomas 2.0
 

cornwalls@6

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It feels like Judon is part of whatever is going on. His free fall in impact coincided exactly with the team's late season slide.

Reading between the lines it does seem like there was real tension involved as the coaching staff tried to get Judon to play within the scheme.
Man, if that’s true, then it is a major coaching mistake by BB. When you have an impact pass rusher, you loosen the reigns a little and let him get after the QB however he can most effectively do so. FFS, he had first hand experience with that going back to LT(not that I’m comparing Judon to him, but I think the point holds).
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Maybe they did try to steer Judon in a different direction, but does that really explain why he couldn't shed blocks when he was pass rushing? I honestly doubt it. Health/Covid seem like more rational answers.
 

rodderick

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Man, if that’s true, then it is a major coaching mistake by BB. When you have an impact pass rusher, you loosen the reigns a little and let him get after the QB however he can most effectively do so. FFS, he had first hand experience with that going back to LT(not that I’m comparing Judon to him, but I think the point holds).
This comment from Van Noy on Chris Long's podcast made me believe at the time some of the edge guys were a bit miffed that Judon actually was given a lot more leeway than they were in rushing the passer.
48394
 

Mystic Merlin

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Down the stretch, Judon wasn’t take proper angles, tackling runners, or beating blocks even in obvious passing situations. Maybe he played like shit?
 

rodderick

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Down the stretch, Judon wasn’t take proper angles, tackling runners, or beating blocks even in obvious passing situations. Maybe he played like shit?
Wasn't that a common criticism of him? I recall at the time of the signing a lot of Ravens fans not being that upset over him being gone, citing the disappearing act he'd regularly perform in season. Maybe that's just who he is.
 

Super Nomario

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Judon only played 22 snaps last night. Uche just 6, Winovich inactive. That's not a great recipe for pressure on the QB, and unsurprisingly they didn't generate any.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Interesting stuff from Van Noy and Slater. There was definitely something rotten with the Pats D after the bye, and to my eyes at least they quit early last night. Buffalo is good but they punted in every game they played this year excerpt the last two against the Pats. They aren’t that good.
 

Captaincoop

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Interesting stuff from Van Noy and Slater. There was definitely something rotten with the Pats D after the bye, and to my eyes at least they quit early last night. Buffalo is good but they punted in every game they played this year excerpt the last two against the Pats. They aren’t that good.
The Bills aren't THAT good. The Jets went punch for punch with them deep into the second half a week ago. They will be punting next week. The Pats sucked yesterday and sucked for the last month. That's the story from our end.
 

Ralphwiggum

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The Bills aren't THAT good. The Jets went punch for punch with them deep into the second half a week ago. They will be punting next week. The Pats sucked yesterday and sucked for the last month. That's the story from our end.
Agreed. I guess at least we aren’t lamenting a lost opportunity. They showed us who they were for the last month, and that is a team that can crush the Jags but can’t beat other playoff caliber teams.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Agreed. I guess at least we aren’t lamenting a lost opportunity. They showed us who they were for the last month, and that is a team that can crush the Jags but can’t beat other playoff caliber teams.
I agree with this, and it makes me wonder what we should expect next season. They limped in to the playoffs- doing nothing right down the stretch against decent teams, and then got embarrassed and exposed by a division rival in the playoffs. Overall, I think their performance is about what should have been expected for the season given the off-season investment, and I know we are banking on improvement from Mac…but, he was decent this year, growth isn’t linear etc etc…is this a 10-12 win team next or an 8-9 win team? Certainly lots of work to do but the finish to the season brings up a lot of questions.
 

Saints Rest

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The 2022 current top cap numbers, which obviously can change but some awful use of cap. Picking up Wynns option seems like a awful idea alone.
They have about $27M in cap space, with 47 players signed for 2022. If they cut these 9 (Godchaux, Guy, Anderson, Davis, DMac, Williams, Keene, Wino, and Asiasi), that gets them to over $38.6M in space. But only 38 players.
In my view, on the offense, it’s pretty simple: re-sign Trent Brown (hoping he’s seen enough of the other side vs Patriots land, that he will take something reasonable cap-wise), and trade for a #1 wideout (Calvin Ridley? OBJ? On a pillow contract).
On defense, it starts with signing JCJ long-term. If Mayo takes a job elsewhere, maybe they can use that to shuffle Steve B off somewhere and bring in a new DC. Then dump all the jetsam I noted above and fill in with youth.
 

Super Nomario

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They have about $27M in cap space, with 47 players signed for 2022. If they cut these 9 (Godchaux, Guy, Anderson, Davis, DMac, Williams, Keene, Wino, and Asiasi), that gets them to over $38.6M in space. But only 38 players.
Miguel has them with $2.5 MM in cap space for 2022. OTC's projection (which is $21.5 MM, not $27 MM) is rosy. Also, cutting guys like Asiasi and Keene and Winovich and Asiasi doesn't really save you any money. The nominal savings of less than a million is offset by the reality of needing to replace them with some other contract, so you save a couple hundred K at most.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Judon only played 22 snaps last night. Uche just 6, Winovich inactive. That's not a great recipe for pressure on the QB, and unsurprisingly they didn't generate any.
This is actually mystifying. Doesn't it make sense to just try to get some pressure? Apparently not. Was BB worried that Buffalo would take advantage of efforts to pressure Allen with players like Uche or Winovich and... score a TD?

It almost has the feel of BB walking into this game, knowing he was going to lose, and just kind of accepting it. "We did what we thought was best, Buffalo destroyed it, so we just stuck with the same thing and got the same result."
 

ObstructedView

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This was not a team that showed any ability to come from behind and win- they really only did it once and against a lousy Texan team. Their losses all followed a similar pattern of getting down big early. This team really needed to generate turnovers and protect the football to win and when the opposite happened, they lost. 18 turnovers in losses, compared to getting just four. In the seven game win streak, they generated 18 turnovers and only made five.

It’s hard to know what to make of this team. They generally did not play very well against good teams; with their two best wins coming with pretty big asterisks. The offense was mediocre, the defense had solid overall numbers but wilted when it mattered most. The team is lacking in top tier players and has a lot of money tied up in regrettable deals. Personally, I’m not sure what to make of this year and the direction of the team. Winning 7-8 games next year feels as likely as 11-12.
The thing about the bolded is that it wasn't primarily about the rookie QB. The offense actually showed late life in a few of their losses, putting the team in position to pull out wins if the defense could just get a stop - which they couldn't get. I didn't expect this team to make the Super Bowl, but the games in which they fell just short do haunt me some because they could've put the Pats in a much more favorable playoff situation.

Judon's decline was obviously a significant factor in the D's overall performance down the stretch. I wouldn't be shocked to find out that he was nursing an injury over the last few games. He had a play (I think in the second Bills game) where he went down and looked really hurt, then got up and ended up returning. At the time the consensus seemed to be that he just had the wind knocked out of him, but I wonder if he had cracked ribs.
 

jmanny24

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Belichick has to seriously evaluate how he picks and develops defensive players in the draft. The days of having big, plodding linebackers are over. Guys like Hightower and Bentley are too big and slow to play the style of football the league is playing. They need to get much faster at LB. When he does pick more athletic guys(Winovich and Uche) they can’t develop them to the point where they’re contributors. They also have not had good success with their edge players. Outside of Judon(who was terrible against the run all year), their edge guys haven’t rushed the passer well nor have they played the run well. Bottom line is that the defense is too slow in the front seven and very thin in the back end.

Coaching has not been great overall. The slow starts, sloppy penalties, terrible special teams play, and lack of adjustments especially the last 2 weeks point to players not being ready to play. Some of that is on the players as well, but they were not as well coached as past teams.

There needs to be some changes made on the defensive staff. They clearly don’t have the answers to how to stop the Bills(or most mobile QBs) and it would help if people were brought in from outside the organization that have had success in this area. The Bills aren’t going away anytime soon and whatever Bill is doing is not working.

I would also evaluate why they’re so conservative in obvious go for it situations on 4th down.
This is exactly where I am and I think it is a fair question to ask if "Patriot type" players are not how you win on defense today. Also, the draft needs to be a homerun with just 1 pick in each of the first 4 rounds.
 

BigSoxFan

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This is exactly where I am and I think it is a fair question to ask if "Patriot type" players are not how you win on defense today. Also, the draft needs to be a homerun with just 1 pick in each of the first 4 rounds.
It’s pretty remarkable how often a team full of big, plodding LBs got overpowered in the run game. I know DL plays a role there but seems like a big problem.
 

jsinger121

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This is exactly where I am and I think it is a fair question to ask if "Patriot type" players are not how you win on defense today. Also, the draft needs to be a homerun with just 1 pick in each of the first 4 rounds.
They might have to move back in the draft to accumulate more picks. I always hate when they move back but they have so many holes that need to be filled and they need as many cracks as possible.
 

jmanny24

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They might have to move back in the draft to accumulate more picks. I always hate when they move back but they have so many holes that need to be filled and they need as many cracks as possible.
That may be true, I wouldn't be against them trading down in the 2nd or 3rd for more picks in 3 and 4. They need to use the first and if the draft is the crapshoot everyone says it is, I don't want picks in the 5th and 6th. Give me as many bites at the apple as I can get in the first 4 rounds.
 

lexrageorge

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They absolutely need to keep their first. They need more impact players and that is where they are most likely to find them. Trade back later if they need to.
 

jsinger121

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That may be true, I wouldn't be against them trading down in the 2nd or 3rd for more picks in 3 and 4. They need to use the first and if the draft is the crapshoot everyone says it is, I don't want picks in the 5th and 6th. Give me as many bites at the apple as I can get in the first 4 rounds.
If they move down a bit in round 1 that would be fine to get an extra pick in rounds 3 or 4.