ERod to Tigers: 5 years/$77 million, opt out after Y2

greek_gawd_of_walks · Nov 15, 2021

I always assumed that when the multi-year offer was reported it was, at most, for 3/50-- which is in line aav. Given the chance, all things being equal and such, if Eddie had given the sox a chance to match the 5/77, I would have, but I trust Bloom and his vision of what this off-season should do for the 2022 incarnation of the Red Sox. Bloom must have known that Eddie was most likely gone given the reported big gap between the sides regarding the midseason extension talk.

It was up and down for Eddie. 2021 was a microcosm of his ML career in a lot of ways, but he came up clutch down the stretch. From Sept 13 to Oct 3, Eddie threw 21.1 innings to the tune of a 2.11 era/1.86 FIP to get them to the WC game. In the postseason, he was again, uneven, but when he was on, he was on. Really great in the closeout game of TB, and recorded the last win of the 2021 campaign vs HOU in the ALCS at Fenway.

Pretty good return for half a season of Andrew Miller. Good luck to him. The Tigers are going to be pretty good next year.

cantor44 · Nov 15, 2021

It is interesting to note that a few folks - in the off season thread maybe - were suggesting ERod would get Wheeler money (like 114 million), what with FIP and BABIP indicators ...that just didn't seem possible to me, and what he got from the Tigers is about what I thought he would get. I actually think if he put in a full and more consistent season in 2022, he THEN might get Wheeler money ... which is why I thought it was possible he'd take the QO ...but alas, maybe the uncertainties of the CBA had him pounce now.

EDIT: Ah - I see he has an opt out after two years. This makes a great deal of sense, then, that he took this deal.

Diamond Don Aase · Nov 15, 2021

chawson said:
Good for him and all. It’s hard to see the Tigers as a contender in the next two years before Eddie’s opt out, while they still have Cabrera on the books, but that’s the AL Central for you.

With Torkelson and Greene positioned to complement more young pitching than the Red Sox have developed this century, the Tigers likely will be very competitive very soon. Whether that will be enough to rival the White Sox may depend on the kids on the Chicago manager’s lawn and how many clouds need to be yelled at.

Petagine in a Bottle · Nov 15, 2021

The Tigers also seem very likely to sign one of the FA SS. They were good in the second half this year, and if a few of the pitchers make the leap, they could be very good.

johnnywayback · Nov 15, 2021

Petagine in a Bottle said:
The Tigers also seem very likely to sign one of the FA SS. They were good in the second half this year, and if a few of the pitchers make the leap, they could be very good.

Yup. A team with Torkelson, Schoop, Correa, and Candelario in the IF; Baddoo, Greene, and Grossman in the OF; Haase catching a rotation with ERod, Mize, Skubal, Boyd with Manning, Turnbull, Jobe coming -- that team could be pretty good pretty quickly.

ElcaballitoMVP · Nov 15, 2021

I've got weird feelings about this one. On one hand, ERod, when healthy, was one of the most dependable pitchers we've had around the team over the past few years. But he never seemed to take the jump from solid #3/4 starter to a top of the rotation arm. The Sox will absolutely miss him, but I expect them to pick up at least one more SP- if not two. Something like a Pivetta-type for the back of the rotation and a Rodon-type to replace Eddie. I highly doubt they go into the season with a rotation that includes 3 of Sale, Houck and Whitlock. Just too many question marks. They need at least one more SP who can dependably eat innings.

Thank you, ERod. You were fun to watch.

santadevil · Nov 15, 2021

Good for you E-Rod. Not a bad get for 2 months of Andrew Miller
While I was sad at the time they traded Miller, many in this place said E-Rod would be a great pickup and they were right

Best of luck in the future and thanks for being a solid addition to the rotation

Harry Hooper · Nov 15, 2021

I wanted him back on the QO for 1 season, but durability concerns dinged enthusiasm for a multiyear contract. Wish him well in Tigertown.

Ale Xander · Nov 15, 2021

Petagine in a Bottle said:
Big hole on the rotation, curious what the Sox offer was to him. Seems like a reasonable deal.

Take the pick and go hard after Rodon, Wood, or DeSclafani, I’d guess.

Sale, Eovaldi, Houck, Pivetta, rework either Perez or Richards as the 5. Could be worse.

Good for Erod. Has to be good to be away from Boston media and to be with your old p.c.

YTF · Nov 15, 2021

Ale Xander said:
Sale, Eovaldi, Houck, Pivetta, rework either Perez or Richards as the 5. Could be worse.

Good for Erod. Has to be good to be away from Boston media and to be with your old p.c.

Hard pass on Richards or Perez in the rotation with Sale being an unknown. Use that 15-16 mil that you haven't spent on Rodriguez and invest in a serious upgrade. Sale, ________, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck/Whitlock. Out of curiosity what limit (if any) is there on the amount of $$$ that a team can add to a trade?

radsoxfan · Nov 15, 2021

Not surprised Chaim wasn't interested in a 4-5 year deal. Erod was better than his ERA but his velos have slowly trended down across the board as well. The rotation can still be good next year without another high priced arm, though would be nice to get some depth pieces with upside.

Don't know if the opt-out after year 2 was another sticking point but that could have some serious value for E-Rod and I doubt the Red Sox are interested in making that commonplace if they can avoid it.

DeadlySplitter · Nov 15, 2021

"Eduardo Rodriguez is guaranteed $28 million in the first two years of his new contract with the Tigers. So if he opts out after 2023, he’ll leave three years and $49 million on the table. "

View: https://twitter.com/timdierkes/status/1460284958539403264

mauidano · Nov 15, 2021

Solid LHP. Thought he would have got more money. It was fun while it lasted, for the most part. Good luck EdRo and look forward to the Red Sox crushing you down the road.

Mugsy's Jock · Nov 15, 2021

Eduardo had a little Daisuke to him... developed a penchant for nibbling and his games often weren't fun to watch. But his fantastic start against the Astros in Game 3 of the ALCS paid off for him today. Gave the Astros no hope until it was much too late.

RG33 · Nov 15, 2021

I wish him the best. He was solid overall, but always seemed frustratingly to not be able to make the next step to a legit #1 or even #2 starter. He was the most frustrating SP to watch for me over the years because his stuff was so good, but his execution often lacking.

This is a very reasonable contract though, so methinks Chaim was okay with going in a different direction as well.

geoduck no quahog · Nov 15, 2021

Is this the new MLB? Pay-by-inning instead of sinking commitments and dollars into a typical starter that's only worth 5 frames and/or 18 outs or less.

I hope not.

Larry Gardner · Nov 15, 2021

I won’t be missing him much. 80 pitches over 4 inning outings, what seemed like infinite 3-2 counts, way too much time between pitches, inconsistent results.

I feel the same way. Sometimes he was really difficult to watch, and obviously a head case-- coaching wanted him to trust his stuff, and he still nibbled and missed outside so much.....that being said, wish Eddie well.

YTF · Nov 15, 2021

Mugsy's Jock said:
Eduardo had a little Daisuke to him... developed a penchant for nibbling and his games often weren't fun to watch. But his fantastic start against the Astros in Game 3 of the ALCS paid off for him today. Gave the Astros no hope until it was much too late.

I think this is a pretty good summary and at this point in his career I don't see that changing. Perhaps not as prevalent as it was earlier in his career, but it always seems to be something that he eventually reverts back to.

Bergs · Nov 15, 2021

Echoing others here, I won't necessarily miss WATCHING him pitch, but - for now at least - the Sox are in worse shape for 2022. I hope he does well in DET except for the outings where the Sox light him up.

YTF · Nov 15, 2021

geoduck no quahog said:
Is this the new MLB? Pay-by-inning instead of sinking commitments and dollars into a typical starter that's only worth 5 frames and/or 18 outs or less.

I hope not.

Baseball has clearly moved toward that third time through the lineup model. I think it only stands to reason that some of that money traditionally spent on starters is going to be redistributed into the bullpens and I'm guessing that translates to shorter contract lengths.

jacklamabe65 · Nov 15, 2021

I trust what Chaim is doing here. Will miss Erod, but we also have some young arms who will replace him in 2023 and '24. I am sure that Chaim will sign or trade for someone who can fill the gap.

mauidano · Nov 15, 2021

All of which begs the question; will Chaim continue the trend of not investing in many 'starters" as "openers" is the trend he started in Tampa Bay?

Is this the way The Game is headed anyway?

Marbleheader · Nov 15, 2021

I've wondered that about the Sale contract, I wonder if starters are ever going to see that kind of money in the future. I think we're going to continue to be surprised at pitchers' contracts over the next few years. Position players salaries may start escalating further if that's the case. Not really that sad to see him go, seems like a good time to move on from him.

Cesar Crespo · Nov 15, 2021

Petagine in a Bottle said:
That’s kind of alarming. How far off could the Sox have been from what EdRod ended up getting?

Depends when they had the talks. I'm guessing it wasn't the end of April. From the beginning of May to the end of July, he had an era of 6.22.

I like the contract for Detroit but at the same time, I'm not that upset he's gone. I also wouldn't be upset if it was the Sox who gave him that deal.

jon abbey · Nov 15, 2021

Marbleheader said:
I've wondered that about the Sale contract, I wonder if starters are ever going to see that kind of money in the future. I think we're going to continue to be surprised at pitchers' contracts over the next few years.

Sale got 5/145, Scherzer could get 3/120 this winter. Ray and Gausman should do nicely too, case by case basis.

mauf · Nov 15, 2021

jose melendez said:
Is there a chance Chaim is going to draw lines on player opt outs?

I've always thought it's a terrible mistake, I'd rather pay more and not have the risk.

I don’t know.

I do know that if we discussed this deal not as 5/77, but as 2/28 with a 3/49 player option, people would think differently about it. The latter is, of course, the more accurate way to describe the deal.

radsoxfan · Nov 15, 2021

mauf said:
I don’t know.

I do know that if we discussed this deal not as 5/77, but as 2/28 with a 3/49 player option, people would think differently about it. The latter is, of course, the more accurate way to describe the deal.

Agreed. Player opt outs, especially for pitchers, have a lot of downside. Don't blame Chaim at all for not wanting to go there with someone like E-Rod.

3/49 isn't some gigantic cost, but guaranteeing any pitcher 49M starting 2 years in the future has pretty significant risk. There is a non-zero chance you are paying 49M for nothing or close to nothing.

Same can be said for any straight up 5 year deal of course, but at least in that case you have some reasonable upside chance to go along with it to balance out the decision.

jon abbey · Nov 15, 2021

It's interesting because people think that big deals for pitchers are insanely risky but historically big deals (which this E-Rod one doesn't really qualify for) have generally worked out a lot better with pitchers than with hitters.

Lose Remerswaal · Nov 15, 2021

Marbleheader said:
I've wondered that about the Sale contract, I wonder if starters are ever going to see that kind of money in the future. I think we're going to continue to be surprised at pitchers' contracts over the next few years. Position players salaries may start escalating further if that's the case. Not really that sad to see him go, seems like a good time to move on from him.

As soon as there is a new Basic Agreement you will see more Sale and Cole type contracts. Owners can’t help themselves

nvalvo · Nov 15, 2021

gryoung said:
I won’t be missing him much. 80 pitches over 4 inning outings, what seemed like infinite 3-2 counts, way too much time between pitches, inconsistent results.

I have faith Bloom will replace him and, quite likely, improve over the cost/results equation.

You must have been watching a different pitcher than I was. Rodriguez was 37th in Fangraphs WAR since 2015, when he came into the league, and 41st in innings pitched over that span. Over that span, he threw more innings at a better FIP than (just to pull a few names off the leaderboard) Adam Wainwright, Jonny Cueto, and José Berrios.

I'm not saying he's irreplaceable, but I would have been tempted to match this offer.

PedroKsBambino · Nov 15, 2021

jon abbey said:
It's interesting because people think that big deals for pitchers are insanely risky but historically big deals (which this E-Rod one doesn't really qualify for) have generally worked out a lot better with pitchers than with hitters.

have not seen recent analysis of that—do you have a cite?

what I’ve observed is that there are fewer for pitchers and those are focused on the truly elite pitchers. So part of the overall dynamic is truly elite be just “very good” as well

Petagine in a Bottle · Nov 15, 2021

Yeah, there are very few elite starting pitchers these days. E-Rod is one of the better under 30 starters in baseball and I don’t think anyone considers him elite, as evidenced by this contract.

jon abbey · Nov 15, 2021

PedroKsBambino said:
have not seen recent analysis of that—do you have a cite?

what I’ve observed is that there are fewer for pitchers and those are focused on the truly elite pitchers. So part of the overall dynamic is truly elite be just “very good” as well

I read a new piece last week that ranked the best 'big' contracts of all time and the top four were pitchers but I can't find it again now, sorry.

If someone wants to try to analyze all the $100M+ deals in history, here is a full list:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

Sprowl · Nov 15, 2021

Edro's velocity trends were gradually but definitely declining over his six years with the Red Sox. His changeup remained good throughout, but he never mastered a third pitch well enough to really put the batter at a loss. The cutter he learned from David Price was always a below-average pitch, and his slider never got good enough to balance the loss of velocity. A pitcher who regularly throws 97 can get away with a mediocre third pitch, but a pitcher who averages 93 had better have reliable secondary pitches, and it didn't look like Edro was getting there.

Still, he signed at an AAV lower than Eovaldi, which I thought Bloom would have matched. Maybe starting pitchers are glutting the market...

mauf · Nov 15, 2021

jon abbey said:
I read a new piece last week that ranked the best 'big' contracts of all time and the top four were pitchers but I can't find it again now, sorry.

If someone wants to try to analyze all the $100M+ deals in history, here is a full list:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

Very interesting.

And I think you’re probably right about big pitcher contracts going better than big position-player contracts. For example, we’d all agree that Barry Zito was a bad deal for the A’s, and most of us would’ve said that at the time, but the Jays gave Vernon Wells roughly the same money at about the same time, and that worked out much worse — perhaps because, to the point @PedroKsBambino made, at least Zito earned that deal with elite play over a sustained period of time. No one was dumb enough to give that kind of money to a pitcher who was a one-year wonder like Vernon Wells.

Daniel_Son · Nov 15, 2021

PedroKsBambino said:
have not seen recent analysis of that—do you have a cite?

what I’ve observed is that there are fewer for pitchers and those are focused on the truly elite pitchers. So part of the overall dynamic is truly elite be just “very good” as well

I ran a little analysis on "mega pitcher contracts" as defined by any deal greater than 5 years with an AAV of more than $20 mil:


Player	Total Value	Years	AAV	Years Since Signing	WAR Produced Since Signing	WAR per Year	Value/WAR
Zack Wheeler	$118,000,000	5	$23,600,000	2	10.4	5.2	$ 9,076,923.08
Jacob Degrom	$137,500,000	5	$27,500,000	3	15	5	$ 16,500,000.00
Gerrit Cole	$324,000,000	9	$36,000,000	2	7.8	3.9	$ 18,461,538.50
Chris Sale	$145,000,000	5	$29,000,000	2	3.5	1.75	$ 33,142,857.00
Max Scherzer	$210,000,000	7	$30,000,000	7	42.2	6.03	$ 34,825,870.00
Patrick Corbin	$140,000,000	6	$23,333,333	3	5.7	1.9	$ 36,842,104.74
Yu Darvish	$126,000,000	6	$21,000,000	4	7.7	1.93	$ 43,523,316.06
Zack Greinke	$206,500,000	6	$34,416,667	6	19.1	3.18	$ 64,937,106.92
David Price	$217,000,000	7	$31,000,000	6	11.1	1.85	$ 100,540,540.00
Stephen Strasburg	$245,000,000	7	$35,000,000	2	-0.3	n/a	n/a

I know WAR isn't a catch-all for value, but Wheeler, DeGrom and Cole are the only ones who's AAV is less than what their teams have paid per WAR. I'd be interested to see where this stacks up against mega deals for offensive players.

nvalvo · Nov 15, 2021

Petagine in a Bottle said:
Yeah, there are very few elite starting pitchers these days. E-Rod is one of the better under 30 starters in baseball and I don’t think anyone considers him elite, as evidenced by this contract.

He hasn't been the best pitcher on a contender, and he plays in the AL East (four hitters' parks and the Trop) so his ERAs aren't flashy. He's never really been a top-20 pitcher in the league, but he's reliably been a top-40 pitcher in the league. So he's not elite in that sense — more a good #2 than an ace — but his track record (856 IP, 3.83 FIP) isn't wildly different than, say, Jon Lester's was through age 28 (1163 IP, 3.73 FIP). Obviously, COVID made its mark on Rodriguez' innings pitched.

I'd predict he has comparable success in the Midwest. He'll get to Comerica, which is gigantic, and his HR rate is going to fall below 1.0/9 IP. Fenway, as we all know, is only a modest HR park, with a park effect of 90 for HR (it's the 137 mark for doubles that makes it a hitter's park), but three of the ten stingier HR parks are in the AL Central: Comerica Park, Target Field, and of course, Kaufmann stadium. (Progressive is a 100, and Guaranteed Rate sees a ton of homers at 124.) But a fly ball pitcher like Rodriguez is likely to thrive in that division.

Sin Duda · Nov 15, 2021

chawson said:
https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/08/04/eduardo-rodriguez-explains-why-he-took-miguel-cabreras-bat-in-red-sox-win-over-tigers/amp/

Miguel Cabrera is “like an older brother” to Eddie, who’s been training with him for years.

Good for him and all. It’s hard to see the Tigers as a contender in the next two years before Eddie’s opt out, while they still have Cabrera on the books, but that’s the AL Central for you.

What's the name of their training facility, Wendy's? I know, too snarky. But I still remember Erod running from 1B to 2B during the World Series against the Dodgers, and him peeling off at a leisurely paced on a ball I thought sure would be an infield single for Mookie.

NJ_Sox_Fan · Nov 15, 2021

Good for ERod. Cannot say I’ll be sad to see him go. Interested to see who they’ll bring in.

jasail · Nov 15, 2021

Eduardo was a good pick up for the Sox. I think like a lot of Sox fans, I was disappointed that he could never make that leap. However, he was still valuable in his time here. I figured he was gone this offseason, but I was surprised the Sox were not in on the action at the cost. Perhaps the contract length and his declining velocity had them worried, or perhaps they have another plan entirely. Regardless, I wish him well out it Tigerland and I think he'll benefit from the flyball parks in the ALC.

PedroKsBambino · Nov 15, 2021

Daniel_Son said:
I ran a little analysis on "mega pitcher contracts" as defined by any deal greater than 5 years with an AAV of more than $20 mil:

Player Total Value Years AAV Years Since Signing WAR Produced Since Signing WAR per Year Value/WAR

Zack Wheeler $118,000,000
5
$23,600,000
2

10.4

5.2
$ 9,076,923.08

Jacob Degrom
$137,500,000

5
$27,500,000
3

15

5
$ 16,500,000.00

Gerrit Cole $324,000,000
9
$36,000,000
2

7.8

3.9
$ 18,461,538.50

Chris Sale
$145,000,000

5
$29,000,000
2

3.5

1.75
$ 33,142,857.00

Max Scherzer
$210,000,000

7
$30,000,000
7

42.2

6.03
$ 34,825,870.00

Patrick Corbin
$140,000,000

6

$23,333,333

3

5.7

1.9
$ 36,842,104.74

Yu Darvish $126,000,000
6
$21,000,000
4

7.7

1.93
$ 43,523,316.06

Zack Greinke
$206,500,000

6
$34,416,667
6

19.1

3.18
$ 64,937,106.92

David Price
$217,000,000

7
$31,000,000
6

11.1

1.85
$ 100,540,540.00

Stephen Strasburg
$245,000,000

7
$35,000,000
2

-0.3
n/a n/a

I know WAR isn't a catch-all for value, but Wheeler, DeGrom and Cole are the only ones who's AAV is less than what their teams have paid per WAR. I'd be interested to see where this stacks up against mega deals for offensive players.

I think an important piece of this is that especially with pitchers the risk is in the later years and other than Scherzer (who we’d all agree is a legit apex star) those deals haven’t hit the riskiest points yet. Several that have—Price for example—are clearly negative deals as the market treated him as a salary dump. Greinke earned it but lost it last year; Strasberg is clearly under water right now, sale is riskier than when signed etc.

Petagine in a Bottle · Nov 15, 2021

The highest paid pitchers in baseball this past year were Bauer, Cole, deGrom, Strasburg, Price, Scherzer, Verlander, and Greinke, Corbin, and Sale. Not a great ROI there.

mauf · Nov 15, 2021

Petagine in a Bottle said:
The highest paid pitchers in baseball this past year were Bauer, Cole, deGrom, Strasburg, Price, Scherzer, Verlander, and Greinke, Corbin, and Sale. Not a great ROI there.

I didn’t run the numbers on those 10 pitchers, but the 10 highest paid position players were Trout, Arenado, Machado, Pujols, Cabrera, Altuve, Stanton, Rendon, Harper, and Goldschmidt. More of the top-paid hitters earned their money this season, but the Pujols and Cabrera contracts are far worse than any of the pitcher contracts, and that group of hitters had above-average injury luck in 2021 — you’d be unlikely to draw 10 players at random who were as old as those 10 and have only one (Rendon) whose season was spoiled by injury.

Petagine in a Bottle · Nov 15, 2021

I dunno, Corbin put up -1.1 WAR and has 3/83 left. He was worse than Pujols and Cabrera this past year. Strasburg with -0.1 and has 5/175 left (!).

That Cabrera extension, though, may be the most inexplicably bad contract of all time.

jon abbey · Nov 15, 2021

With Strasburg, after the Nats won in 2019, they needed to choose whether to give a huge deal to Strasburg or Rendon and right now the correct answer is looking like neither.

nvalvo · Nov 15, 2021

jon abbey said:
With Strasburg, after the Nats won in 2019, they needed to choose whether to give a huge deal to Strasburg or Rendon and right now the correct answer is looking like neither.

It's sort of amazing in retrospect that that rickety roster of very-good-but-fragile-players, many of them quite old, held it together long enough to win a title.

Not just Strasburg and Rendon, but Corbin completely imploded in 2020 and hasn't really recovered. Anibal Sanchez fell apart in 2020 and retired. Adam Eaton hasn't posted an OPS over .700 since 2019. Howie Kendrick had a bad 2020 and then retired; same with Brian Dozier.

That's more than half of the players on that 2019 roster who were worth more than 1 WAR. Soto, Robles, Turner, Voth, Scherzer, and Gomes were the others. (And that's not even mentioning Zimmerman, who didn't clear that threshold.)

Pedroia's Itchy Nose · Nov 16, 2021

Daniel_Son said:
I ran a little analysis on "mega pitcher contracts" as defined by any deal greater than 5 years with an AAV of more than $20 mil:

Player Total Value Years AAV Years Since Signing WAR Produced Since Signing WAR per Year Value/WAR

Zack Wheeler $118,000,000
5
$23,600,000
2

10.4

5.2
$ 9,076,923.08

Jacob Degrom
$137,500,000

5
$27,500,000
3

15

5
$ 16,500,000.00

Gerrit Cole $324,000,000
9
$36,000,000
2

7.8

3.9
$ 18,461,538.50

Chris Sale
$145,000,000

5
$29,000,000
2

3.5

1.75
$ 33,142,857.00

Max Scherzer
$210,000,000

7
$30,000,000
7

42.2

6.03
$ 34,825,870.00

Patrick Corbin
$140,000,000

6

$23,333,333

3

5.7

1.9
$ 36,842,104.74

Yu Darvish $126,000,000
6
$21,000,000
4

7.7

1.93
$ 43,523,316.06

Zack Greinke
$206,500,000

6
$34,416,667
6

19.1

3.18
$ 64,937,106.92

David Price
$217,000,000

7
$31,000,000
6

11.1

1.85
$ 100,540,540.00

Stephen Strasburg
$245,000,000

7
$35,000,000
2

-0.3
n/a n/a

I know WAR isn't a catch-all for value, but Wheeler, DeGrom and Cole are the only ones who's AAV is less than what their teams have paid per WAR. I'd be interested to see where this stacks up against mega deals for offensive players.

Last week I was typing up a pretty big post analyzing data from the top 10 position player and pitcher FA signings of the past 3 years, comparing their AAV to their average WAR per year over the contract to date. I only looked at 3 years of data because that's as far back as I could get on sportrac without paying for premium and I couldn't find another easily searchable source. Sadly I lost the post due to a power outage and haven't had the heart to reconstruct it. It's of limited value anyway given the small sample size, but I think there is something to be learned there. I'd really love to be able to run the numbers on all FA contracts in the post-steroid era.

Regardless, the analysis that I did get to before losing the post is relevant to what you've posted here. Rather than analyze $ per WAR I used WAR/$1m as my metric, just fwiw. I found that on average position players are more cost effective than pitchers, at an average of ~.15 and ~.12 WAR/$1m respectively.

I broke things down into five rough tiers: superstar contracts ($150m+ total value), star contracts ($75m-150m total value, $15m+ AAV), midrange star contracts ($40m-75m total value, 10m+ aav), pillow contracts, and everyone else. The two things that really jumped out at me from the data were as follows:

For both pitchers and position players, the overall efficiency of each sub-group was pretty similar to the overall average with the exception of midrange stars in both groups, which performed significantly worse. Superstar pitchers were also very bad, but that effect was entirely due to Strasburg's disaster so I'm not confident drawing any conclusions from such a small sample size. Pillow contracts were the most efficient by far, but there were few enough that I'm also suspicious of small sample size issues.
For position players, higher tiers were more reliable. Superstars and stars were much less likely to be busts, but they were also much less likely to outperform. Meanwhile, the "everybody else" category had a high bust rate but also the highest likelihood of exceeding expectations. The same was not true of pitchers. For pitchers basically every tier was at risk of busting at pretty similar rates. I didn't finish running the numbers on pitchers exceeding expectations, but eyeballing the data suggests that "everybody else" tier pitchers had more upside just like they did with position players. So with position players you pay a premium for reliability, but with pitchers no such reliability exists.

I'd really love to see if these patterns hold up over a larger sample of data. If they do, it certainly suggests that chasing high end free agent pitchers is not a great strategy.

Earthbound64 · Nov 16, 2021

So, the Red Sox re-sign him for the 2024 season?
(Sort of) kidding.

jtn46 · Nov 16, 2021

PedroKsBambino said:
I think an important piece of this is that especially with pitchers the risk is in the later years and other than Scherzer (who we’d all agree is a legit apex star) those deals haven’t hit the riskiest points yet. Several that have—Price for example—are clearly negative deals as the market treated him as a salary dump. Greinke earned it but lost it last year; Strasberg is clearly under water right now, sale is riskier than when signed etc.

I'm never going to get over that the Red Sox with money to burn in the 2014 offseason didn't for a second consider signing Max Scherzer.

A Bad Man · Nov 16, 2021

I would guess that the prospect of TJ and the unknowns of long COVID factor substantially into the decision to not resign ERod.

ERod to Tigers: 5 years/$77 million, opt out after Y2

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

wears depends

Well-Known Member

Hamilton

Member

Member

Member

Mai Tais for everyone!

Eli apologist

Certain Class of Poster

not particularly consistent

Member

Member

funky and cold

Member

Well-Known Member

Mai Tais for everyone!

Moderator

79

Shanghai Warrior

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers

Member

Shanghai Warrior

Experiencing Furry Panic

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Shanghai Warrior

mikey lowell of the sandbox

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers

Member

Shanghai Warrior

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member