Beyond The Bubble - Official 2021-22 NBA Betting Thread

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Not to be confused with the “Unofficial” thread (don’t look….it doesn’t exist).

Digging deep into Season Win Totals and other props this week. I’m limited on props with Florida not yet ready to go until end of the month live with online still being argued whether the Seminole tribe has exclusivity to mobile as well. (Nice grammar…..screw it I’m gonna ramble)

Made two plays so far:

* Over 52.5 Utah

This is one of my products of fading the public group of Lakers, Warriors, Blazers, etc without being locked into them all individually. The Jazz play a great regular season style and I don’t see that changing. I’m looking at some other teams in the 30’s and low 40’s to add some Over positions but this is biggest to start.

* Under 51.5 Phoenix

One fade in the West that I absolutely do want a position on are the Suns. Much like how the Lakers took the reg season personal two years ago…..we were all over this here that year…..only to focus on health and playoffs last year (how did that work out?) I expect a similar approach by the Suns. Classic let down spot that we see year in and year out following a fully focused year and deep playoff run in all sports (hope you guys have been fading the Chiefs). The other factor is luck/injury……incredible how healthy the Suns were last year so aside from the mental approach of playing more toward the playoffs we have the physical regression in play as well. I reallly really like this play.


* I was excited to play a Chicago Over until I saw the number at 43 Wins. Ugh hard pass, I was hoping for 38-39 range. It may be a blessing as a couple injuries could cripple them with such little depth.

* I’m unsure what market Otto Porter would fall into or if the NBA even has a Comeback Player of Year award but if they did/do he is a prime candidate in a perfect system with Steph and Dray.

Hey @bowiac are you posting your Win projections this year? Always one of my favorites to look out for.
 
Last edited:

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,283
For some reason I want to bet Thunder over 23.5 wins, -105.

Oh, that reason is SHAI.

I probably won't do it though.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
For some reason I want to bet Thunder over 23.5 wins, -105.

Oh, that reason is SHAI.

I probably won't do it though.
I don’t mind that at all. I like a ton of WC Overs with the opportunity for so many of the historically good teams at 45+ wins to crash for one reason or another. If one or two do then those wins have to be picked up somewhere. Right now, Memphis is probably next on my list to hit for an Over.
 

Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
2,769
Boston, MA
How would one go about making a season-long prop bet online in say, MA? Does it require driving to RI or something? Would make watching some non-Celtics games more interesting, I think.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
How would one go about making a season-long prop bet online in say, MA? Does it require driving to RI or something? Would make watching some non-Celtics games more interesting, I think.
You have the NH option if you’re north of Boston. If you’re looking for season-long entertainment it’s worth a drive. Good foliage this week too if you appreciate that kind of stuff.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,283
I don’t mind that at all. I like a ton of WC Overs with the opportunity for so many of the historically good teams at 45+ wins to crash for one reason or another. If one or two do then those wins have to be picked up somewhere. Right now, Memphis is probably next on my list to hit for an Over.
It's hard to get excited about the proposition on betting over on a team which is actively trying to lose. If I was guaranteed a full season of SGA, or even just normal injury risk, sure.

Memphis is another weird one because they don't seem primarily focused on short-term winning.

41.5 is a pretty fair line, but yeah, if I had to bet one way, it would be betting on Ja/JJJ.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
It's hard to get excited about the proposition on betting over on a team which is actively trying to lose. If I was guaranteed a full season of SGA, or even just normal injury risk, sure.

Memphis is another weird one because they don't seem primarily focused on short-term winning.

41.5 is a pretty fair line, but yeah, if I had to bet one way, it would be betting on Ja/JJJ.
I get the hesitancy on OKC……which is why I likely won’t play them either. I had Memphis at 45 myself which didn’t factor any colossal collapses by some of the teams I’ve mentioned so for me adding this variable to my numbers makes me ready to begin clicking. Unlike the Bulls say, Memphis is ridiculously deep for a middle of the pack team which is a big plus in the regular season. 38-34 with JJJ for only 11 games and he’s ready to breakout one of these years as his strength increases.

* I’m ready to click me some Over Memphis.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,283
I get the hesitancy on OKC……which is why I likely won’t play them either. I had Memphis at 45 myself which didn’t factor any colossal collapses by some of the teams I’ve mentioned so for me adding this variable to my numbers makes me ready to begin clicking. Unlike the Bulls say, Memphis is ridiculously deep for a middle of the pack team which is a big plus in the regular season. 38-34 with JJJ for only 11 games and he’s ready to breakout one of these years as his strength increases.

* I’m ready to click me some Over Memphis.
My Memphis hesitancy relates to swapping out JV for SA, which makes sense long term as part of their asset churning plan, but definitely doesn't help this year.

But yeah, almost no JJJ & gimpy Ja last year...tempting.
 

Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
2,769
Boston, MA
You have the NH option if you’re north of Boston. If you’re looking for season-long entertainment it’s worth a drive. Good foliage this week too if you appreciate that kind of stuff.
Yeah, probably easier to go south, but might have reason to head up to NH as well. Will look into it, thanks!
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,283
I like the over on Celtics at 45.5, but hate that it's -135.

(just placed small bets on Nets over 56.5 +105 & Pistons under 25.5 +100)
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,090
Any idea why Draft Kings doesn’t let you parlay these? Kind of boring to wait 6+ months for a -105 payout.
 

Marceline

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
6,441
Canton, MA
Yeah, probably easier to go south, but might have reason to head up to NH as well. Will look into it, thanks!
Twin River has a mobile app you can use to place bets anywhere within the RI border, but I think it requires an in person visit to the sportsbook to do the initial setup. If you're closer to RI it's worth a visit.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,283
Any idea why Draft Kings doesn’t let you parlay these? Kind of boring to wait 6+ months for a -105 payout.
Idk, they claim you can parlay basically anything. Haven't used them for sports betting, though.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,283
I’ll be there in two weeks. Can’t wait to see Circa.
Feel free to hmu.

The Circa sportsbook is nice, & the steakhouse is supposed to be good, but overall I wasn't that excited by it. I didn't explore for too long, though.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
I’ll be there in two weeks. Can’t wait to see Circa.
I’m at the Golden Nugget. The sports book at Circa is impressive, if you’re into comfortable seating and lots of massive televisions.

The rest of Circa is certainly an upgrade over most of the casinos downtown, but nothing special compared to many of those on the Strip.

If you like the outside vibe walking around down here, as opposed to being on the Strip, Circa is a more upscale option.

HRB, what poker rooms do you like in LV?
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,283
I played at the Nugget the other day for the 1st time in years.

When I moved to Vegas 10 years ago it was actually to make a living playing poker until I became a member of the Bar.

Hardly play anymore between work & kids. My favorites are probably Wynn & Aria, though, at this point.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I’m at the Golden Nugget. The sports book at Circa is impressive, if you’re into comfortable seating and lots of massive televisions.

The rest of Circa is certainly an upgrade over most of the casinos downtown, but nothing special compared to many of those on the Strip.

If you like the outside vibe walking around down here, as opposed to being on the Strip, Circa is a more upscale option.

HRB, what poker rooms do you like in LV?
How long are you out there for? Pre-Covid I was there mostly only during WSOP. Venetian was always my favorite for 2/5 but I heard that went downhill. I really used to enjoy the ambiance of Planet Hollywood and play in some loose 1/2 games with no stress…..those games were fun and filled with tourist fish. I think they closed that room though.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,283
Yeah, PH closed a couple months ago. Was usually a good time. No matter how many times they moved the room.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,758
How long are you out there for? Pre-Covid I was there mostly only during WSOP. Venetian was always my favorite for 2/5 but I heard that went downhill. I really used to enjoy the ambiance of Planet Hollywood and play in some loose 1/2 games with no stress…..those games were fun and filled with tourist fish. I think they closed that room though.
I’ve been here all week and I’m leaving Sunday night.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Looks like we may begin these Laker 2H & Laker 4Q Unders right out of the gate. Good set up so far.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Looks like we may begin these Laker 2H & Laker 4Q Unders right out of the gate. Good set up so far.
Well that was a fun way to kick off the season. We get a ridiculous 57-pt 4Q number to stay under for starters (225), withstand a barrage of early 4Q 3’s by Golden St to where all we need is for AD to miss a double team-turnaround 3, secure the rebound and dribble the clock out. Easy peasy right? Boom! Nothing but net and we go down.

Sidebar: As the Warriors were draining 3’s and Poole doing his prime-MJ impersonation I was excited to play an in-game Under around the 6-min mark which is a favorite of mine in these tight Laker games. Then I got in trouble for not cleaning the cats litter box on my day and missed my spot. So for a moment I was extremely agitated that while AD’s 3 cost me the 4Q, my resistance to completely my husbandly chores was going to cost me a win……..until Kerr decided to “set the culture“ and play what was a 9-pt game (without the ball) into a Laker free throw parade. Weird finish to a weird game. Oh and Jordan Poole is a stud!
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Playing two preflops today.

* Under 216.5 Celtics/Knicks

* Sixers -3.5

The former should be slow grind it out game without offenses having much continuity. In short, an “ugly game.” Wish I had a prop at good plus money on neither team reaching 100 as you’d likely be getting a very positive price.

The latter is my contrarian poker room angle that seems to hit at 98% lol. The Simmons topic came up last night and as two big mushes agreed that they LOVE the Pelicans bc of the “distraction” as two others nodded as if they were receiving investment advice from Paul Tudor Jones. I would never say a word but I was laughing inside and made a line of -230 that neither will know that Zion is out until the camera zooms in on him in street clothes LOL. My position on “distraction” is that this WILL be a factor at home when the media makes it a distraction……on the road, away from your media, is an actual benefit from my seat. I don’t have these props on my sites (c’mon FL gets your system up!) but if you can get one of those winning margin options this game has blowout potential.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I had to run an errand. Did the Celts game stay Under? At least the contrarian poker room game that never fails once again didn’t fail. Does anyone know if DK or FanDuel post those winning margin numbers during the regular season. This would have been a nice one.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Don’t let the Sixers win against a bad Pelicans team fool you. Today and tonight this is going to be a shitstorm for the Sixers and the Nets coming off a loss. Such a ripe spot here.

* Brooklyn -2.5 is a 350-star whale play!!

I kid about the stars and the whale. They shouldn’t have much trouble here. I may play the 1H number as well.

Leans: Bulls -7, Magic +7.5, and watching for Over Props on Westbrook to see if public slams them down.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
* I played Toronto tonight at +2 and +130 ML (I think that’s what I got). The Bulls for some reason have been ridiculously overvalued to start the season. I wanted to like this team to sneak up on some people but a good preseason has made them great fade material for the time being. I like this Raptor team now that they are back in Canada.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
How do we bounce back off a half-point loss? We fly to Vegas the next morning and cap games in the air!

As I glance down at the Grand Canyon I think of the Antelopes Head Coach Bryce Drew, his NCAA heroics as a player at Valparaiso……..and a 1-7 shooting performance against the Spurs in a hotly contested mid-December game back in ‘99. You’re probably wondering what the relevance is to this thread and as I’m gliding 20k miles high on the second Long Island Iced Tea I’m gonna tell you.

If the immortal Bryce Drew can shoot 1-7 against Pop and the Spurs what would you expect out of some of these Lakers players tonight against this same Pop? The Spurs took care of business vs Orlando in their opener, were tied up with Denver in the 4Q before succumbing, and was in a 1-pt game in the 4Q vs Giannis and the Bucks. They are 1-2, playing very well, scrappy and hungry. Compare this to the Lakers who don’t really care much about the regular season this year and got their “exhale” win against Memphis following an 0-2 start.

* Spurs +3

* Under 224

- - - - I hadn’t yet player Under 113.5 Lakers TT and still may. The Lakers have close out power so a final possession win certainly isn’t out of the question but I see this as a flat spot for them and a big game for the Spurs.

San Antonio 109
LA Lakers 104

I am NOT Jose Melendez but those are HRB’s keys to the game.

* Edited to correct 14 Martin Grammatica errors.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
If you were wondering what LeBron was worth in the better market here you go. Lakers -3 & 224 with him when I got down on Spurs and Under this morning……now that he’s out, Spurs -1 & 220.
 

ElUno20

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
6,055
If you were wondering what LeBron was worth in the better market here you go. Lakers -3 & 224 with him when I got down on Spurs and Under this morning……now that he’s out, Spurs -1 & 220.
Can you check your PMs?
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,283
How do we bounce back off a half-point loss? We fly to Vegas the next morning and cap games in the air!

As I glance down at the Grand Canyon I think of the Antelopes Head Coach Bryce Drew, his NCAA heroics as a player at Valparaiso……..and a 1-7 shooting performance against the Spurs in a hotly contested mid-December game back in ‘99. You’re probably wondering what the relevance is to this thread and as I’m gliding 20k miles high on the second Long Island Iced Tea I’m gonna tell you.

If the immortal Bryce Drew can shoot 1-7 against Pop and the Spurs what would you expect out of some of these Lakers players tonight against this same Pop? The Spurs took care of business vs Orlando in their opener, were tied up with Denver in the 4Q before succumbing, and was in a 1-pt game in the 4Q vs Giannis and the Bucks. They are 1-2, playing very well, scrappy and hungry. Compare this to the Lakers who don’t really care much about the regular season this year and got their “exhale” win against Memphis following an 0-2 start.

* Spurs +3

* Under 224

- - - - I hadn’t yet player Under 113.5 Lakers TT and still may. The Lakers have close out power so a final possession win certainly isn’t out of the question but I see this as a flat spot for them and a big game for the Spurs.

San Antonio 109
LA Lakers 104

I am NOT Jose Melendez but those are HRB’s keys to the game.

* Edited to correct 14 Martin Grammatica errors.
Still in town?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Still in town?
Yes I’m here through next week and “hopefully” the following week. #wsop

I have a couple comp nights at Park MGM each week but at Wynn/Encore rest of time. I need a place to watch UFC tomorrow that has kiosk betting. I’m shocked that in 2021 Wynn doesn’t have kiosks! Like seriously wtf. Unless I get motivated to Uber to Circa or South Point I may walk to Venetian I have some winning tickets to cash there. Are you on the strip at all this weekend?
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
14,283
Yes I’m here through next week and “hopefully” the following week. #wsop

I have a couple comp nights at Park MGM each week but at Wynn/Encore rest of time. I need a place to watch UFC tomorrow that has kiosk betting. I’m shocked that in 2021 Wynn doesn’t have kiosks! Like seriously wtf. Unless I get motivated to Uber to Circa or South Point I may walk to Venetian I have some winning tickets to cash there. Are you on the strip at all this weekend?
I don't have current plans to be, but I definitely could be between child events.

Any advantage to kiosk over app?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I don't have current plans to be, but I definitely could be between child events.

Any advantage to kiosk over app?
Yes I don’t want to deal with funds going in and out when I’m only here for a brief time. I know people who have had issues and I don’t want to deal with them.

So I go to ticket writer at counter who looked as thrilled to be there as Ben Simmons would be at a wedding in Philly right now. I ask him if there are any kiosks since I didn’t see any. In his miserable 40-yr old tone he says “Yeah someday they’ll get rid of us bc everyone wants to but nope, you’ve got to see my face to make a bet.” Well #1, it’s Vegas…..I have other options. And 2….Dude you really need to get out of Vegas. Guy was ready to jump.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Ok this is too fun not to share. Young kid with his younger girlfriend at sports book. He is all excited showing his girl he is up in Cleveland, is up big in Denver and…..”I just need the Clippers to lose like they always do and I’ll hit the biggest parlay of my life!!”

So what does HRB do?

a) Root for kid to make his score
b) Bet on Blazers so kid will make his score
c) Frantically log on to website and live bet the Clippers

If you said C you are correct!! He can even win just keep it within 9 lol. It was a tiny play but fun one nonetheless.

Edit: Kid wins. I lose.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
And in a painful twist of irony, me and Parlay boy both end up going down in flames with the Cavs. Lol.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I’m not going to post every time one comes up but keep an eye of these non-traditional start times. If you do decide to get involved with either a full-game or 1H Under I would recommend playing it as early as possibly, overnight line if you can. Last year they were really getting bet down leading up to the game and you always want to get the best number.

Today’s Mavs/Kings game featured combined 26% FT shooting for both easy Unders. I don’t even need to point out the shooting in yesterday’s Celtics off-start time game that needed the 2nd OT to go full-game Over. These are historically great spots.