I love a good staring contest. If Simmons goes for dreck now, I'll bow to the Rich Paul agent apologists on the board, but I think that he overplayed his hand here. Morey gives no fucks.
Ben Simmons wants out of Philadelphia
- Thread starter JCizzle
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Pretty sure everyone here would love to see Philly play hard ball. Whether they will or not is another matter.
I think what makes this situation different than most is that I think Embiid/Doc have had enough of Simmons and he may not be a particularly welcome guy in the locker room, so him dogging it on the sideline would be even more problematic for the team.
Simmons is not Kawhi, nor is he Harden. He is firmly in the tier (or two) below. Sitting out with phantom injuries would hurt his trade value and probably extend his time in Philly longer than he wants. It's clear he wants out ASAP, so at least holding out puts all the cards on the table for everyone to see. But Morey will use the leverage he has, and probably has ownership backing to do just that, so I still don't expect Simmons to be dumped for nothing.
I don't feel like I'm wishcasting here. I agree that agents and players run the league for the most part. But Morey in a new org, ownership is not gonna whack him. And who wants to be the guy that sets the precedent that guys with a million years left on their deal can shoot their way out of town, especially guys with Simmons' standing?
Morey didn't lose his job for pissing off China.
Agree with this but Morey needs Simmons to win games more than Simmons needs PHI. If PHI has any kind of an uneven start, the story is going to be all anyone talks about in PHI, and that's not good for the team either.
Assuming Simmons doesn't need the money, Morey just can't sit tight and expect to win. PHI isn't good enough.
Question that may be very dumb - what are the luxury tax implications of Simmons sitting out? They're about $5 million over, so if they're not actually paying that salary to a player, does this let them duck under?
I'm supremely curious as to why Paul/Simmons think it's a smart move. I guess they don't have other options, but it seems like the wiser course of action would be to improve his trade value so his desired teams actually think he's worth trading for. Now his rep is that not only is he a tremendously difficult fit on the court, he won't even show up to work if he doesn't like his fit off it. Who was the last veteran player to hold out like this? I suppose Jimmy Butler counts, but that situation was different in some important ways.
I'm supremely curious as to why Paul/Simmons think it's a smart move. I guess they don't have other options, but it seems like the wiser course of action would be to improve his trade value so his desired teams actually think he's worth trading for. Now his rep is that not only is he a tremendously difficult fit on the court, he won't even show up to work if he doesn't like his fit off it. Who was the last veteran player to hold out like this? I suppose Jimmy Butler counts, but that situation was different in some important ways.
Why does Simmons want a team to have to give up more to acquire him? The more valuable he makes himself, the less impetus there is on the 76ers to trade him.
Situation A: We get literally nothing from this guy & probably never will.
Situation B: Hey this guy is really helping our team!
Which situation would be more likely for the 76ers to acquire surplus value over what they're already receiving by trading Simmons?
Also, what happens if he actually gets injured trying to play hard for a franchise he hates?
& the less a team gives up to get him, the better his new team will be.
I've said this before, but I don't really understand the Morey cred anymore. He was great 10 years ago, but now there are GMs who are more versed with all of analytics, team-building & having a likeable personality that doesn't alienate players.
Situation A: We get literally nothing from this guy & probably never will.
Situation B: Hey this guy is really helping our team!
Which situation would be more likely for the 76ers to acquire surplus value over what they're already receiving by trading Simmons?
Also, what happens if he actually gets injured trying to play hard for a franchise he hates?
& the less a team gives up to get him, the better his new team will be.
I've said this before, but I don't really understand the Morey cred anymore. He was great 10 years ago, but now there are GMs who are more versed with all of analytics, team-building & having a likeable personality that doesn't alienate players.
Bigtime risk, without question. But given Embiid's abject disdain for the man and Doc's kiss of death statements immediately after the playoffs, it seems even more likely to me that the team comes out hot and heavy during a Simmons holdout. It's still a damn good team.
Assuming that I'm right and Morey doesn't firesale Ben, worst case scenario is a bad Sixers start definitely. But I think that Morey is betting on addition by subtraction and is right.
Maybe they don’t. People often act irrationally when diminished or embarrassed. Paul might just be doing what Simmons is demanding.
76ers were +8.5/100 with Simmons on the court & +2.3/100 with him off last year in the regular season.
Replacing his minutes with an additional 32 minutes per game from...Shake Milton? Grumpy Tyrese Maxey? Georges Niang? Jaden Springer?... won't make them a better regular season team.
& if it somehow does over a small sample, that only DECREASES what you can receive for him in the inevitable trade.
I don't know about that. In the first two months of the season they play the Nets, Bucks, Jazz and Nuggets once each.
They have 10 games against non-playoff teams [Pistons (2), Pels, Bulls (2), Thunder, Wolves, Raptors, Magic and Kings], which should be wins.
Then they have 7 games against non-contender playoff teams [Knicks (2), Hawks, Portand (2), Pacers, Warriors].
A (pissed off) Embiid and Harris surrounded by the shooting of Curry, Green, Milton and Korkmaz, and some expected growth from Maxey and Thybulle should be good enough against that schedule to be solidly in the playoff picture come December.
I've not looked at the PHI's early schedule but if Morey is thinking that PHI will be better without Simmons, I think he's going to be severely disappointed. I mean Simmons was guarding Trae Young for god's sake because no one else on that team could. Who's going to guard wings? Harris?
Embiid, Harris, and Green are three starters. If you include Curry and Thybulle, there are no ballhandlers. If you include Maxey and Thybulle, they lack shooting. Curry and Maxey means no perimeter defense. At least that's the way it seems to me. Simmons covered a multitude of holes on PHI's roster.
But what do I konw? As my mom used to say, "We shall see."
If he really thinks they are better off without Ben, why not just trade Ben for whatever? He's not betting on addition by subtraction. He's betting on Simmons caving and playing.
Maxey also wants out and could be problematic if not traded, especially coupled along with Simmons.
I'm not saying that PHI won't be a playoff team without Simmons (they've been a .500 team without him for the past two seasons) but the pre-Simmons blow-up expectations for this team was that they'd challenge for the title. If they get off to a .500 start, I think the pressure grows on Morey and the rest of the organization.
Here's an Athletic piece that analyzes things in much more detail: https://theathletic.com/2833685/2021/09/20/analyzing-the-sixers-potential-rotations-with-and-without-ben-simmons/?redirected=1
Have to agree with Wade Boggs. The 76ers were so good because despite all the concerns about Simmons as a shooter, he's a great defender and tremendous distributor. He tries hard, he's a freakish athlete, and can find guys anywhere on the floor. Thybulle can step into the defensive role to a degree, but their defense will suffer, and I think there will be a lot of pain on offense, too. There's a lot of shooters on that team now but almost no one who can dribble or pass. Throw a double team at Embiid and watch him turn the ball over four or five times a game. Five years in the league and as much of a monster as he is, the guy is *still* turning the ball over more than he assists others.
I would guess they'll struggle majorly. Maybe not out of the playoff picture struggle, but around .500.
There are actually other situations beyond the binary you posed. If the Sixers don't have to pay the guy real world dollars and their fans support that because they think that ownership are the good guys (as they typically do!), they can let him sit until the contract runs out or until he's forced to return to the team having not gotten the thing he requested.
I don't even think your Situation B is remotely possible. The Sixers know that he's a liability and that they need a different roster construction in order to get pas the second round - that's why they've been talking about trading him all summer, right? Do you really think they'd get hypnotized into thinking "oh yeah, this'll work now" after a good start to the regular season? Obviously the Sixers are not a better regular season team without him, but they should be well aware of their ceiling with him by now.
I doubt Morey thinks they will be better without Simmons. But that is also not really the question.
As long as Philly remains in the mix for the playoffs, then Simmons absence from the team does not hurt Morey's leverage. No one thinks Morey wants to keep Simmons. No one expects him to be on the roster at the end of the season. This is a just question of timing. Morey wants a better offer than is currently on the table. He (presumably) thinks that time makes an improved offer more likely. I think that's the right calculus because it opens the possibility of 1) Beal or Dame asking out, 2) another team having an unexpectedly bad start a needing to make a change to placate ownership/fans and 3) another team exceeding expectations and talking itself into Simmons propelling them to the next level.
Now if Simmons' absence, makes Philly a bottom feeder/play-in team, then I agree that time is not on Morey's side. Given that the East still has Orlando, Detroit and rebuilding Raptors to beat up on and mediocre mid-pack teams like the Bulls, Pacers and Knicks, I think that outcome is much less likely than one of 1-3 occuring.
Another way to frame it, do you think the reported offers that are on the table are enough to make Philly a contender? If the answer to that question is no, then it makes sense to wait. The crappy offer will still be there in December. If you take it no, you're done. Unless Maxey really pops, the Simmons deal is your last chance to really reshape this roster around Embiid. So you wait, until there is an offer that you think gives you a path to contention.
With regard to Embiid's health, all of this is predicated on him remaining healthy. If he suffers a catastrophic injury, then I think its actually easier to move Simmons. In that world, you don't need good players in return, you take back a bunch of picks, bottom out and rebuild.
Do we know that Maxey wants out? I recall one report that Klutch wanted Maxey because they did not want "their guys" in Philly. Has there been an subesquenting reporting, leaks etc on the Maxey front? At the time of the original report, it struck me as a dumb move by Klutch if they really made that demand.
It's an awful demand and awful for the NBA. It's like they tried to sneak it into the Simmons deal to hide it. It's worse than the Simmons demand.
But no, I haven't seen anything other than that report.
And that report actually got walked back fairly quickly.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JDumasReports/status/1433093361108328454
Jason Dumas
@JDumasReports
Update: Tyrese Maxey is excited about this upcoming year with the Sixers as is Rich Paul and the 76ers. Paul does not want Tyrese out of Philly. However, the Ben Simmons situation is totally separate.
10:44 AM · Sep 1, 2021
Good. It has happened before with Steve Francis and has happened to the C's with Jon Barry. That was players refusing to report after being drafted though.
Interesting throwaway line on today's Lowe Post.
They were discussing how SImmons and Dame have too many years left on his deal to force a trade to one team, and Zach mentioned that from everything he's heard Simmons' list of teams is 29 teams long... anywhere but Philly.
They were discussing how SImmons and Dame have too many years left on his deal to force a trade to one team, and Zach mentioned that from everything he's heard Simmons' list of teams is 29 teams long... anywhere but Philly.
It is a star league. And the star that Philly should care about the most is Embiid. What does Embiid want? Do that. Morey should be reviewing every offer he gets with Embiid.
I still think Embiid and Morey are probably on the same sheet of music right now that reads "Fuck Ben Simmons" at the top. That music will change sooner or later once the season gets going, but I suspect only after Simmons loses some money, gets a bunch more bad press, and/or they get an offer that they actually like.
I still think Embiid and Morey are probably on the same sheet of music right now that reads "Fuck Ben Simmons" at the top. That music will change sooner or later once the season gets going, but I suspect only after Simmons loses some money, gets a bunch more bad press, and/or they get an offer that they actually like.
Replying to this one, but others made the same point.
No of course I don't think that the Sixers are better without Simmons.
What I'm saying is that the FU factor of the Embiid-led roster starting the year with Simmons sitting out in protest would be real. Call it Ewing factor or whatever. Ben sitting out for a trade and Doc and Joel making a "my team is on the floor" start to the year, would anyone be surprised if the pissed off Sixers roster goes 18-2 in the first 20 games?
Nobody thinks that Simmons sitting out is a good long-term thing for the Sixers, but I'd be very surprised if his absence causes them to fall on their faces out of the gate and create new pressure on Morey.
Yes. 18-2 is really hard, and that roster without Simmons isn't elite. Also, if I were to pick any superstar in the league to bet against playing 20 straight games it would probably be Embiid.
I also don't think it would work that way, I don't get the impression that is a tight locker room with Simmons as the outsider. I think the far more likely situation is it turns toxic as the team splits between 2 camps:
1. Those who are angry at Simmons for holding out
2. Those who think Simmons is justified because of how Doc and Embiid treat him.
The best thing for PHI is probably a nice clean break and a fresh start for everyone, otherwise you risk discontent spreading to other players, some of whom might be a lot harder to move (or you don't want to move) than Simmons.
Edit- part of this is the vibe I've gotten is that Embiid is not a particularly well liked figure even within his own team. I don't think he's hated or anything but he's not a guy with a lot of friends in the league. I remember in the bubble people were writing stories about how it now forced him to hang out with teammates when he normally didn't. Simmons is the guy with a lot of friends around the league, if you try to make it a "Screw Ben!" thing you're gonna fail.
Obviously the 76ers don't want to be worse at basketball, but if teams aren't offering good trade packages, they could either accept a bad trade package and get worse at basketball or they could let Simmons sit, also get worse at basketball, and save money. It's not an unrealistic scenario as much as you want to strawman it.
You can't compare Simmons to Harden because they are remarkably different in one important way: Every team in the NBA wants James Harden and not every team in the NBA wants Ben Simmons. His trade value has declined significantly from last regular season due to his showing in the playoffs. If you, a player, want to get traded, that is much easier to do when you're actually in demand.
One way to be in demand is to play and remind other teams that you're an amazing defender or you added some skills in the offseason so you may not be such an awkward fit with other stars or that you create some other image of play in their minds that is not you passing up a dunk because you didn't want to get fouled. If you want out of Philly, you need to prove that you're a player worth going after - Harden didn't need to prove that, neither did Anthony Davis, neither does Damian Lillard, or Bradley Beal. Players of that caliber actually have leverage because when they want to get traded, other teams go in pursuit of them. Simmons has not created that kind of interest or bidding war as far as we know. This is doubly true if his "long-term goal" as you put it is playing somewhere besides Minnesota or San Antonio.
Edit: in reply to CD:
Yeah if that's the case--and the team came out of the gate 8-12--that would amplify pressure on Morey for sure. And he would probably be aware of this dynamic.
Perhaps I'm reading too much in to Doc doubling down on Joel's "WTF" public comments after the Pass game. It was fucking jarring.
Yeah if that's the case--and the team came out of the gate 8-12--that would amplify pressure on Morey for sure. And he would probably be aware of this dynamic.
Perhaps I'm reading too much in to Doc doubling down on Joel's "WTF" public comments after the Pass game. It was fucking jarring.
Didn't the Celtics do it after Haywood broke his ankle?
Fine 16-4, whatever. Point is (was) that a pissed off team can outperform for 20 games.
Fine 16-4, whatever. Point is (was) that a pissed off team can outperform for 20 games.
So are you suggesting they would be better off getting no return at all for Simmons than getting a return? I doubt the offers are that awful. Simmons is a far cry away from being traded for a negative asset.
I don't see how the 76ers win. Even if Simmons caves, he's going to be a problem chemistry wise. I doubt everything will just be fine.
You literally said they could sit & let his contract run out & their fans wouldn't mind? That clearly makes them worse at basketball for 5 years. That's what they have to bluff with. Simmons doesn't have a great bluffing hand either, tbh, but the organization can't spend their next 5 years just trying to spite Ben Simmons regardless.
On the whole, though, I expect Morey to wait it out until he gets an offer he's comfortable with & accept the offer & end the stalemate.
The teams Simmons actually wants to go to don't even have any assets to trade the 76ers even if they wanted to, except maybe the Warriors, so increasing his value doesn't get him where he wants to go.
& finally, I don't think NBA teams are going to significantly change their opinion on Simmons' value if he plays like he has the past 4 regular seasons, & the only thing that would actually increase his value is learning to shoot. NBA front offices have scouts & game film & know exactly what kind of player he is & his pros & cons, & have all analyzed how that fits with their team & what that's worth to them.
He could play, & if I was an NBA player I'd have a hard time not playing, but it is what it is & business-wise I think this is his best chance of getting moved sooner.
Yeah I’m with you here. As much as Simmons doesn’t want to be in Philly you can 3x this on Doc/Philly not wanting Simmons around for them to move forward. They aren’t going to withhold his pay forever so he returns simply to CTC and if he threatens too I’m sure Philly will pull back on the fines.
This is Simmons/Paul only option and probably not a bad one once everything ends and he’s found a new home. Not sure what other options they would have after his coach and their franchise player publicly threw him under the bus following their last series.
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I'll take "Celtic Dream Scenario" for $200 Alex
Here were a couple of recent fake trade pieces:
https://thesixersense.com/2021/09/20/sixers-grading-3-ben-simmons-warriors-trades/
Must have been written by SRN, horrible return for the 76ers. Has Wiggins really rebuilt his value that much?
https://thesixersense.com/2021/09/18/sixers-grading-3-potential-ben-simmons-trades-from-kings/
These offers seem more attractive, but I'm a huge Halliburton fan.
At the heart of it, the Simmons/76ers situation is a failed business relationship not at all unlike what occurs in numerous industries around the globe each day. When ego doesn't get in the way, most of these are resolved at a price. Assuming Morey's ego isn't the main driver for the 76ers organization - and as we have seen sports executives can certainly screw these things up - their main objective should be to move Simmons for the best return possible.
As such, a trade before the season starts should be the base case.
As such, a trade before the season starts should be the base case.
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Just for fun I went back to look at the past 30 (31?) seasons. I think these are all the 18-2 or better:
'15-'16 Warriors 20-0
'14-'15 Warriors 18-2
'13-'14 Pacers 18-2
'08-'09 Celtics 18-2 (actually started 27-2)
'07-'08 Celtics 18-2
'02-'03 Mavs 18-2
'96-'97 Rockets 18-2
'95-'96 Bulls 18-2
'93-'94 Rockets 19-1
'90-91 Blazers 19-1
Not trying to pile on, just thought it was fun to look at. But yeah, I wouldn't be shocked by 15-5, but would be surprised by much better, & would expect 12-8ish.
It's easy to move him, just a matter of what the best package is & how to maximize that package.
It's also possible the public sentiment is "sure I'll play anywhere but here" for PR purposes, & privately his people are telling teams he won't be happy if they trade for him, because those teams don't have any incentive to leak that Ben Simmons doesn't like them.
It's crazy DAR is only 25 & would be on his 5th team. I don't think he's a great fit with Embiid, or particularly good at basketball (his teams have been better with him off the court 5 of his 6 years of his career, with the other year being his 4th season when they were +0.1, & have been negative with him on the court all 6 years), so I think they would probably look in a different direction, but who knows?
Lol, those Warriors trades are complete dogshit. They would be better off just letting Simmons hold out than taking a return like that. The Haliburton, Hield and a pick deal make more sense to me, that seems like a reasonable return given the circumstances. Though, I'm sure for Sacramento they would rather keep Haliburton and send Fox out if they're trading for Simmons since Haliburton can actually shoot.
it would be very surprising if Sac traded Haliburton on his rookie deal. They hold his rights through the 24/25 season. Fox is likely seen by the organization as their franchise player and they just locked him up to a new contract. I'm just not seeing it with Sac unless it's something like Simmons for Hield and Bagley plus a pick.
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That is not what I "literally" said, it's what you're inferring. I'm positing that Simmons could sit out and then return to the team once he starts missing his $3 million a month paycheck. He could sit out until the trade deadline and be out $15 million+. That sucks for him and the Sixers, but probably him more. They could also play chicken and see if he sits out the whole year.
Morey may not be that great a GM, but you can't say the guy doesn't have stones or patience. He's not exactly lacking for job security, so what would be driving him to deal Simmons when his value is at a low point? I could be wrong and Simmons could get traded next week, but I don't see this motivating a GM like Morey (we're here in part because of his legendary stubbornness anyway).
And do you honestly believe that Simmons sitting out to force a trade to Sacramento is best for his "long-term goals"? Total irrelevance is more appealing than showing up to work for a few months?
I'm suggesting that taking a shit trade package - like a bunch of late 20s picks or another bad contract or a combo of that - isn't appealing when they don't have to do anything right now. They could wait several months, even a season, and probably get the same trade package while Simmons won't get tens of millions in salary. We saw SAS do this with Kawhi and you may quibble with the package they selected, but they stared him down for an entire season (and Kawhi was smart enough to make it an injury thing rather than an official holdout - he could do that because he actually had leverage and not an imagined version of it).
Edit: Apologies - task switching and didn't realize that I did say they could let contract run out. In my head the scenario I outline above seemed more likely (Simmons coming back) and the one I was more keyed in on. That is my mistake and feel free to call me an asshole in PM.
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This is really hard to gauge. When you are young, highly talented, popular, with a flaw in your game, well yeah, people will make allowances. They will be on your side, they will root for you. Every year that goes by where you don't work on your flaw, no matter what coaches or teammates say, where it is clearer and clearer that you could be in the finals but aren't because of your flaw, you start losing your teammates support. NBA players are in the NBA because they are either supremely talented or work their ass off, or both. They are not going to be happy if they start feeling that you aren't pulling your weight There comes a point where the feeling stops being supportive and starts being "Oh well, Too bad".
I don't know where Ben Simmons is in this progression, but from the lack of teammates leaping to his defense, I don't think the team is going to split into 2 camps. It is much more likely to go the "Screw Ben" path.
It would be a mistake for the 76ers to just take whatever talent they can get, and get on with the season. That would be bad business and Morey is too experienced. Despite his lack of scoring/shooting, BS is still a 25-year-old three-time All-Star who is one of the 2-3 best defenders in the NBA. He does not fit next to Embiid, but he could be the cornerstone of a young, up-and-coming team (see Sacramento). An uninspired Simmons showing up and playing for $$$, while risking injury, does nothing to improve his current trade value.
The best thing for everyone is for him to sit out. Most NBA teams are over-optimistic during the offseason. After a month or two, the 76ers will get to see what happens to all of the other NBA teams. Another team that is suddenly struggling due to injuries, egos, underperformance will find Ben more appealing and be willing to talk. It is inevitable that several teams underachieve. Suddenly teams will be forced to look around for ways to either improve, acquiring BS will look far more appealing.
It's rare for young NBA stars to be available, and everyone in the NBA will know where to turn when the wheels fall off. Especially for small market teams who are never able to acquire high-profile free agents. A shot at a young star with four years left on his contract is a great opportunity to roll the dice. Then Morey will receive fair market value for BS.
Moving Ben now would be a mistake. Just wait for the market to shift and the 76ers will be in a better position. Simmon's holdout isn't really a threat to the Sixers, it's probably an opportunity to regain the upper hand.
The best thing for everyone is for him to sit out. Most NBA teams are over-optimistic during the offseason. After a month or two, the 76ers will get to see what happens to all of the other NBA teams. Another team that is suddenly struggling due to injuries, egos, underperformance will find Ben more appealing and be willing to talk. It is inevitable that several teams underachieve. Suddenly teams will be forced to look around for ways to either improve, acquiring BS will look far more appealing.
It's rare for young NBA stars to be available, and everyone in the NBA will know where to turn when the wheels fall off. Especially for small market teams who are never able to acquire high-profile free agents. A shot at a young star with four years left on his contract is a great opportunity to roll the dice. Then Morey will receive fair market value for BS.
Moving Ben now would be a mistake. Just wait for the market to shift and the 76ers will be in a better position. Simmon's holdout isn't really a threat to the Sixers, it's probably an opportunity to regain the upper hand.
MC...no offense, but I'm done having conversations with you. You say things & then jump through so many hoops to say you didn't say things & that I'm strawmanning & making things up. Our resulting back & forths can't be a pleasant read for anyone.
Bottom line, Simmons chose his path & we will see how it goes. If I had to wager, I would guess he gets traded in the next month or so for an ok package. But I don't have to wager, so I will just enjoy kicking around imaginary trades for fun until there is a real one to look at.
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