Will the real Red Sox please stand up? I repeat, will the real Red Sox please stand up?

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Everyone, Nip said quite clearly this morning that the next conversation about vaccine status outside of V&N would lead to extreme sanctions. I do not want to see that happen. In case anyone missed that warning, this conversation belongs in V&N. There's even a thread there for it already.
I missed that. I’ll go delete my posts.
 

scottyno

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Vaz is the biggest disappointment of the season. Coming into this year having him at 6.25m this year and a 7m option next year (or maybe 8, not sure how that option worked with regard to a shortened 2020) looked like such a steal. And then he started off 2021 so hot with the bat, and since then he's been so bad in every way that his $7m team option might not even get picked up.

His framing is way down too according to baseball savant. He was 5th best in baseball in 2019, 4th in 2020, and 17th this year- barely positive.
 
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canderson

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This season is toast but I’m very unimpressed with how Cora has responded in this nosedive collapse. The team has shown no energy to fight back at all.
 

Harry Hooper

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This season is toast but I’m very unimpressed with how Cora has responded in this nosedive collapse. The team has shown no energy to fight back at all.
It wasn't quite Rod Rust stating, "I'm proud of my men," but Cora tonight in the postgame noted how they got the tying run to the plate in the 9th.
 

scottyno

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reggiecleveland

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This season is toast but I’m very unimpressed with how Cora has responded in this nosedive collapse. The team has shown no energy to fight back at all.
It's chicken or the egg. We were pretty thrilled they were winning. They could not sustain the frequency of coming back, etc. I don't see bad energy as much as poor pitching and slumping hitters.
 

nvalvo

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It's chicken or the egg. We were pretty thrilled they were winning. They could not sustain the frequency of coming back, etc. I don't see bad energy as much as poor pitching and slumping hitters.
Thank you. The consensus take pre-season was that this team would go as far as its cobbled together pitching staff could take it, and well... here we are.

Rotation ERA by month:

3.94
4.45
5.32
4.74
4.31

Bullpen ERA by month:

3.09
4.48
2.96
4.30
5.46

We asked a lot of the bullpen in June, and they delivered, but at what cost?
 

Pat Spillane

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Feb 12, 2021
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No one thought we were contenders coming into the season. We over achieved for a while. FO didnt really think we were contenders at the deadline so this is probably where we should be. Decent team but not good enough for the big boys. Probably again a good move we didnt waste too much ammo at the deadline.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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No one thought we were contenders coming into the season. We over achieved for a while. FO didnt really think we were contenders at the deadline so this is probably where we should be. Decent team but not good enough for the big boys. Probably again a good move we didnt waste too much ammo at the deadline.
Sorry, Pat, but that doesn’t fit the narrative of the Fellowship of the Miserable here.

Just because we were hoping for an above .500 season doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be pissed when they start out much better than that and then regress towards that level. 80% of us predicted a finish within 4 games of .500

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/red-sox-2021-season-predictions.33006/

And it is approaching THREE WHOLE YEARS since this manager and team won the World Series with one of the most dominating seasons ever!

SoSH doesn’t like to quote Dan Shaughnessy here. Historically that is because of his negativity, among other reasons. Now we just don’t need to.
 

Rovin Romine

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No one thought we were contenders coming into the season. We over achieved for a while. FO didnt really think we were contenders at the deadline so this is probably where we should be. Decent team but not good enough for the big boys. Probably again a good move we didnt waste too much ammo at the deadline.
Just because we were hoping for an above .500 season doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be pissed when they start out much better than that and then regress towards that level.
What happened last night (and what's been happening overall) is not "regression" in the sense that we had players grossly and collectively over-achieving, who have now returned to a baseline "true talent" level.

But hey, sour grapes.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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What happened last night (and what's been happening overall) is not "regression" in the sense that we had players grossly and collectively over-achieving, who have now returned to a baseline "true talent" level.

But hey, sour grapes.
True. Having a half dozen guys out for Covid reasons isn't "regression" or anything else we can compare this to. I'm not sure if you are saying their true talent is last night? Or if it's their August record, which wasn't dreadful, it was normal for any team, even a championship team. Especially for a .500 team that outperformed expectations for 4 months.

Would they still be in first place if they had played .500 ball?
 

Rovin Romine

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True. Having a half dozen guys out for Covid reasons isn't "regression" or anything else we can compare this to.

What was their record in August? Would they still be in first place if they had played .500 ball?
Should they have played only .500 ball? (It's like you threw away your regression argument, then stepped right back on it.)
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Should they have played only .500 ball? (It's like you threw away your regression argument, then stepped right back on it.)
Why not? Most of us thought this was a .500 team. And even if they were a great team, great teams usually have a .500 month mixed in there. This team was 4 games below .500 That's not dreadful. But the Yankees and Rays had incredible months. My point was if the Sox had played .500 ball for the month, LIKE the kind of team most of us thought they were, they still would have fallen out of first place by a few games.

This team played over their heads. Now they are playing below their capabilities. With a bunch of guys on the Covid list. 12-16 isn't Oriole territory by any means.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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He threw 92 pitches 3 days ago and didn't get out of the 5th, he was never going to be an option to pitch today
Sorry it's taken me so long to respond to this... but when did the Sox/Cora/Bloom know that this game was going to be a "bullpen game" (a guaranteed loss)? From my recollection, this has been discussed for several days now and I sure as hell hope that management knew this, along with knowing that the pen (even before Covid) was gassed. They could have smartly held off Seabold for maybe just an inning 3 days ago or a BP session and had him up to make this start.
What was the better choice here knowing the season really is slipping away? Hold Seabold off and let him start? Have a BP game (not even considering Covid) from a depleted and gassed pen? Finding some garbage 2 days prior and throwing him into this toxic stew?
There's been 2 major fuckups this season that have led to this collapse- one was Cora mismanaging the double-header against the MFY's and the other was this game. There have been plenty of other minor management/coaching fuckups too but these are the two that are just glaring.
 

GB5

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if this season ends short of the playoffs, are the Sox media spinsters going to assign the sinking of the season to COVID? They were in the playoffs when Covid decimated the team and they never had a chance? That will be a mistake. This meltdown happened long before Covid wracked the team. I am shocked at my turnaround feelings towards Cora. I really thought he was a difference maker, and that a lot of the bigger guys performing poorly last year, such as Devers and Martinez could be in part due to his absence. Then the team and those two in particular reverse their performance from last year, and I truly thought Cora was a baseball healer. However the mindless inattention to details by the players night after night for the last month plus has been staggering. Its not skill that has been plummeting, it is the same guys making repeated brain farts. Forgetting outs, running into needless outs, communication on fly balls, on and on. To me, that is a reflection of the manager. If you cant hit a 95 mph fastball, thats not on the manager. Spacing out on fundamentals and details night after night, shows a lack of preparation, concentration, or lack of accountability. This does not feel like a well coached or well prepared team.
 

BaseballJones

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The Covid situation is just "icing on the cake". The team started spiraling downhill and suddenly can't beat good teams. They're doing fine against lousy teams (10-5 against the bad/mediocre teams on the schedule this past month) but man they're getting abused by the good teams (2-11 against TB, NY, and Tor).

It doesn't appear that this team will have enough in the tank - especially now with the Covid situation - to make the playoffs.
 
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Petagine in a Bottle

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It’s possible for the team to have more wins than we thought they would 5 months ago, and still be disappointed in their collapse I’ve the past month or so, isn’t it?

If the Sox continue to sputter the rest of the way and miss the playoffs, and the result is Cora and Bloom and co proclaiming the season a success because they overachieved some vague performance assumptions set prior to the season, would people accept that?

Should they ignore the poor performances, lousy defense, etc etc and just be happy that they played so well for awhile?

I am sort of baffled with the ever present argument that the Sox are overachievers and we should just be happy for how good it looked for a while. I personally enjoyed that like hell while it was happening, the same way the recent performance has been not so enjoyable.
 

Rovin Romine

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Why not? Most of us thought this was a .500 team. . . .
This team played over their heads. Now they are playing below their capabilities. . .
Curious, GB5. How many wins did you think this team was capable of on Opening Day?
Why do you think this is in any way a valid measure of team talent?

I'll just say this for posterity's sake. Prior to the 2021 season, we had a number of question marks and a number of new acquisitions. No one knew if E-rod would start, or if JD was cooked, or if Pivetta was the real deal, or if Sale was coming back at all this year. Much volatility.

However, a month into the season established certain things; JD was back, E-rod could start, Devers hadn't porked out, our back end starters were serviceable, etc. We had some poor outcomes (Franchy/Dalbec) but in the main we had health and the talent level seemed undiminished for many individual key players.

There was not a "playing above one's head" then regressing, nor was there a "many fluke wins" period. The runs allowed and runs scored speak for themselves.

Somehow dismissing the level of play the team established for three plus months in favor of a bunch of internet randos (myself included) pre-seasons guesses is nothing but the sourest of sour grapes.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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It’s possible for the team to have more wins than we thought they would 5 months ago, and still be disappointed in their collapse I’ve the past month or so, isn’t it?

If the Sox continue to sputter the rest of the way and miss the playoffs, and the result is Cora and Bloom and co proclaiming the season a success because they overachieved some vague performance assumptions set prior to the season, would people accept that?

Should they ignore the poor performances, lousy defense, etc etc and just be happy that they played so well for awhile?

I am sort of baffled with the ever present argument that the Sox are overachievers and we should just be happy for how good it looked for a while. I personally enjoyed that like hell while it was happening, the same way the recent performance has been not so enjoyable.
Totally possible to be disappointed. I am, for sure. I was also totally surprised and thrilled at how well they did from April thru July. I hoped it would continue, but deep down most of us knew it wasn't sustainable.

I doubt Cora, Bloom, or ownership will claim success for anything less than a playoff position.


Why do you think this is in any way a valid measure of team talent?

I'll just say this for posterity's sake. Prior to the 2021 season, we had a number of question marks and a number of new acquisitions. No one knew if E-rod would start, or if JD was cooked, or if Pivetta was the real deal, or if Sale was coming back at all this year. Much volatility.

However, a month into the season established certain things; JD was back, E-rod could start, Devers hadn't porked out, our back end starters were serviceable, etc. We had some poor outcomes (Franchy/Dalbec) but in the main we had health and the talent level seemed undiminished for many individual key players.

There was not a "playing above one's head" then regressing, nor was there a "many fluke wins" period. The runs allowed and runs scored speak for themselves.

Somehow dismissing the level of play the team established for three plus months in favor of a bunch of internet randos (myself included) pre-seasons guesses is nothing but the sourest of sour grapes.
Just curious as to the road the poster took. And there was Playing Over Their Heads going on, if you give credence to Pythag info that had the Sox 5 games worse than their record.

This team is not as good as they played from April thru June, nor are they as bad as people are saying they were in 12-16 August. July was 13-12, which is probably a fair showing of this team's talent.
 

joe dokes

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Why do you think this is in any way a valid measure of team talent?

I'll just say this for posterity's sake. Prior to the 2021 season, we had a number of question marks and a number of new acquisitions. No one knew if E-rod would start, or if JD was cooked, or if Pivetta was the real deal, or if Sale was coming back at all this year. Much volatility.

However, a month into the season established certain things; JD was back, E-rod could start, Devers hadn't porked out, our back end starters were serviceable, etc. We had some poor outcomes (Franchy/Dalbec) but in the main we had health and the talent level seemed undiminished for many individual key players.

There was not a "playing above one's head" then regressing, nor was there a "many fluke wins" period. The runs allowed and runs scored speak for themselves.

Somehow dismissing the level of play the team established for three plus months in favor of a bunch of internet randos (myself included) pre-seasons guesses is nothing but the sourest of sour grapes.
I see it as akin to a plane with minute cracks in a wing. And now the cracks started getting bigger. The defense was *never* going to be above average, and stood a chance of being below average. ERod, while seemingly healthy, has hardly been dominant. "Serviceable" back enders is a drastic improvement over 2020. (And they will likely finish with a much better record than 2020.) And the offense has, as expected, been mostly OK (even if not always from the expected sources). All that adds up to a *ceiling* of playoff contention. Some stellar pitching early (starters and relief) led them to flying high. Some pitchers crashing and burning (especially relievers), defense coming in much worse than "not above average," (and hardly being able to play Hernandez in CF, which also affected the pitching) and now losing several critical pieces has widened those cracks.

And I agree with SJH and others about Vazquez. He's looking like he's forgotten how to play baseball.
 

Rovin Romine

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I see it as akin to a plane with minute cracks in a wing. And now the cracks started getting bigger. The defense was *never* going to be above average, and stood a chance of being below average. ERod, while seemingly healthy, has hardly been dominant. "Serviceable" back enders is a drastic improvement over 2020. (And they will likely finish with a much better record than 2020.) And the offense has, as expected, been mostly OK (even if not always from the expected sources). All that adds up to a *ceiling* of playoff contention. Some stellar pitching early (starters and relief) led them to flying high. Some pitchers crashing and burning (especially relievers), defense coming in much worse than "not above average," (and hardly being able to play Hernandez in CF, which also affected the pitching) and now losing several critical pieces has widened those cracks.

And I agree with SJH and others about Vazquez. He's looking like he's forgotten how to play baseball.
FWIW, the team was supposed to have Franchy in LF, and nobody expected Dalbec to be as much of a butcher as he has been. Santana was supposed to have been average on D, and perhaps adequate with the bat, but turned into an injury-prone black hole.

I'd say their achilles heel has been depth - that and an unwillingness to trade/move on from players. Which to my mind indicates a scouting/coaching issue.

The offense, on the whole, has been more than OK.

And there was Playing Over Their Heads going on, if you give credence to Pythag info that had the Sox 5 games worse than their record.
I don't really these days - Pythag is an estimate that assume that all runs scored/allowed are created with equal intensity. While that may have correlated to the general style of play at one time, I'm not sure it does anymore.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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There's a reason why they're "only" 12-16 this month. They're terrible around the edges. Their depth is non-existent. The defense is terrible. The baserunning has been awful. The situational hitting has been subpar since the All Star Break because by all appearances they are pressing badly. The relief pitching has been awful because they have been overused. And the starting pitching hasn't gone deep enough into games.

They also are undergoing a severe crisis of confidence. Every mistake they make costs them a game. Every. Single. One. Vazquez forgetting the outs and not scoring in CLE. Barnes making the one bad pitch to Springer at just the right time to lose the game in TOR. Houck getting pulled early and the bullpen immediately imploding. And they're only playing worse as time goes on, they are eroding in every area.

On and on and on it goes. They're losing to the teams they need to beat to stay in contention. A 2-8 road trip in TB, DET, and TOR. Swept in NY. 1-7 vs TB since July 30. The only reason they even managed to be 12-16 in August is because they went 9-3 against BAL, TEX, MIN, and CLE, all TERRIBLE teams. I suppose that's encouraging if they were expected to face one of those teams in the postseason but we know that's not the case. As soon as they faced an opponent of any type of quality they lost, and that badly.

I have never, and I mean ever, seen a team with such poor self-confidence since the Sox of Sept. 2011. You can see it in their reactions after every big out or mistake. Devers threw his helmet about 20 feet last night. Vazquez is playing in an utter fog. Verdugo is chasing pitches a foot out of the zone. They are panicking.

As for "well what were you expecting at the beginning of the season," that's a disingenuous question. In 2013 they were expected to be around .500 after the mess that was 2012; it's a damn good thing they didn't hold themselves to such a low standard that year. They played .604 ball in the first half of the season, they've played .465 ball in the second half. That's a massive collapse, and while you can say they weren't as good as 604 might indicate, playing .604 in the first place indicates they had more quality than assuming they were a .500 team. There's no earthly reason for them to be this bad.

It's unacceptable to play .465 in the second half, unacceptable to lose TEN GAMES to TB in 30 days, unacceptable to only be able to beat teams that are 40 games under .500. You can expect some regression from .604, and so did I, honestly. But to play .465? No, I did not and do not expect that. That's a 75 win pace for the full year and no one here would have accepted that at all.

What frustrates me immensely is that they had put themselves in position to make some noise this year unexpectedly with their strong first half. They were looking like a fun team, and getting a good year was such a relief after the emotional disaster of 2020 and the Betts trade. That would have been a nice feeling to have. But they've thrown that all away with poor play, lackluster managing, a curious lack of urgency at the trade deadline, and error after unforced error that spirals on them. We could have had something nice.
 
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tims4wins

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The only thing I'd quibble with, SJH, is that a 75 win was out of the realm of possibility. I think that was easily within the error bar for this team. Would we have been happy with it? No. But I don't think a single informed fan would have been surprised, at all, with a 75 win season.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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The only thing I'd quibble with, SJH, is that a 75 win was out of the realm of possibility. I think that was easily within the error bar for this team. Would we have been happy with it? No. But I don't think a single informed fan would have been surprised, at all, with a 75 win season.
I certainly would have. I think 85 wins was the bare minimum that should have been expected before the year began. And certainly after the season began they number would have been considered a failure after the first half they had.

If you play .604 ball in the first half and end up with 75 wins....that's a huge woof. Expectations can and should change based on early returns.
 

Pat Spillane

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Should they ignore the poor performances, lousy defense, etc etc and just be happy that they played so well for awhile?

I am sort of baffled with the ever present argument that the Sox are overachievers and we should just be happy for how good it looked for a while. I personally enjoyed that like hell while it was happening, the same way the recent performance has been not so enjoyable.
Not saying we should be happy with how good it looked for a while but I do think the other poster was right. We overachieved at the start and are possibly underachieving now. Not something to be happy about. To make this team a certainty for the playoffs would have cost some prospects at the deadline. For arguments sake lets say we added Max Scherzer and Schwarber I still dont think we would have been real contenders and it would have cost us future valuable trade chips. We could have pushed it further at the deadline but I think it would have hampered out future without delivering anything other than an early playoff exit

Progress was made identifying the building blocks we have for the next contending team and who can potentially join them as main or complimentary pieces (Houck, Pivetta, Whitlock). There was a whiff of 2013 when no one gave them a chance but this team didnt have the overall talent level to get there and the additions to get them there were probably not available. Bloom has done a good job putting us on an upward trajectory. Next year I would imagine the demands on him will be higher
 

Rovin Romine

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The only thing I'd quibble with, SJH, is that a 75 win was out of the realm of possibility. I think that was easily within the error bar for this team. Would we have been happy with it? No. But I don't think a single informed fan would have been surprised, at all, with a 75 win season.
Depends on what you mean by error bar. This was a tough team to predict pre-season, especially given the truncated performances in 2020. It was built top-heavy, with little depth, and more than a few unknowns or hoped for rebounds. Most predictions try to factor in key injuries - so I think 75 wins would have been a rational take pre-season.

But if you mean error bar in terms of actual talent, given actual health? Limiting it to the vicissitudes of poorly timed hitting streaks, fat pitches, and running into team-killer starters. . .I don't see how this could be a 75 win team.
 

tims4wins

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Depends on what you mean by error bar. This was a tough team to predict pre-season, especially given the truncated performances in 2020. It was built top-heavy, with little depth, and more than a few unknowns or hoped for rebounds. Most predictions try to factor in key injuries - so I think 75 wins would have been a rational take pre-season.

But if you mean error bar in terms of actual talent, given actual health? Limiting it to the vicissitudes of poorly timed hitting streaks, fat pitches, and running into team-killer starters. . .I don't see how this could be a 75 win team.
Yeah I guess the former. Guys like Eovaldi and E-Rod had huge question marks coming in. The rest of the staff was a pile of meh. Sale's status was totally unknown. They didn't have many known arms in the pen. On the offensive side, there were fewer questions, but they still didn't know what to expect out of 1B, 2B, CF, RF, etc.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Yeah I guess the former. Guys like Eovaldi and E-Rod had huge question marks coming in. The rest of the staff was a pile of meh. Sale's status was totally unknown. They didn't have many known arms in the pen. On the offensive side, there were fewer questions, but they still didn't know what to expect out of 1B, 2B, CF, RF, etc.
I mean, they had a $200 million payroll even after the Mookie trade. If that gets you a 75 win season, that's a fire-able offense for the entire management staff and front office.

75 wins was never the expecation for this team. Doubly true after the first half. It shocks me that people are so accepting of this second half collapse.
 

YTF

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The Covid situation is just "icing on the cake". The team started spiraling downhill and suddenly can't beat good teams. They're doing fine against lousy teams (10-5 against the bad/mediocre teams on the schedule this past month) but man they're getting abused by the good teams (2-11 against TB, NY, and Tor).

It doesn't appear that this team will have enough in the tank - especially now with the Covid situation - to make the playoffs.
This. One thing we have to remember is that when cleared, each of these players may have a different sort of re-entry. Some may merely need to knock off a little rust from sitting out 10 or so days, while others might have some lingering affects such fatigue, headaches, lethargy, etc... It's going to be a tall mountain to climb considering how few games are actually left, how poorly they've been playing (covid not being a factor), questionable coaching, the collapse of the pitching staff as a whole (pre covid concerns) and the relative decent health of the two teams closest to Boston in the WC chase.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The inability to support a solid core with adequate depth was an issue in ‘19, and again in ‘21. Bloom whiffed on Andriese, Richards, Perez as well as Robles, and I guess the jury is out on Davis? He allocated too much of his budget on Ottavino to get a real fringe prospect in German, and got nothing from Gonzalez and Santana. Franchy seems likely to be non tendered. Jury is out on the minor leaguers acquire in the Betts and Benintendi deals. None of the AAA pitchers impressed.

On the plus side, Whitlock has been a revelation, Renfroe and Kiki have been great value, and Pivetta solid enough. Sawamura has gotten good results with lousy peripherals. But why has the team had so much trouble identifying and acquiring depth talent? Can Bloom fill all the holes the team has in the off-season?
 

Rovin Romine

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Yeah I guess the former. Guys like Eovaldi and E-Rod had huge question marks coming in. The rest of the staff was a pile of meh. Sale's status was totally unknown. They didn't have many known arms in the pen. On the offensive side, there were fewer questions, but they still didn't know what to expect out of 1B, 2B, CF, RF, etc.
Given 2020, I don't know if there was a solid lock for the majority of the team.

In terms of track records that included a good 2019 and 2020, I think there was only Xander, Vaz (ironically), Eovaldi (sorta), Barnes, and Darwinzon. Verdugo probably gets an honorable mention, and Taylor for a good 2019 and SSS 2020.

Everyone else had a significant off-year, no track-record, a possible medical issue, or was transitioning to a new role.
 

geoduck no quahog

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I assure you - this is not V&N'ish: We'll probably never know how many team members (including support staff) refused to get vaccinated (just that it's under 85%) and it's possible that it became an issue in the clubhouse. We all have our own workplace stories and our work doesn't involve travelling together for 6 months to and from clubhouses. It felt to this viewer that Cora's about at the end of his rope - as if he's lost the clubhouse. Maybe I'm projecting too much.

My point is - teams go through injuries and slumps all the time and some have more resiliance than others, but I grew up in the "25 cabs" era and felt that there was an impact. It's real easy to have a good clubhouse when you're winning - not so much when things are stacked against you.

I agree with others here that think some on the team have looked and played dejected and distracted since the break. I'm willing to believe it's just the Baseball Gods, but it seems more than that.

I also agree there were probably no acqusitions pre-deadline that could have pushed them over the hump.
 
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Smiling Joe Hesketh

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My point is - teams go through injuries and slumps all the time and some have more resiliance than others, but I grew up in the "25 cabs" era and felt that there was an impact. It's real easy to have a good clubhouse when you're winning - not so much when things are stacked against you.

I agree with others here that think some on the team have looked and played dejected and distracted since the break. I'm willing to believe it's just the Baseball Gods, but it seems more than that.
Ugh, getting close to V&N territory here but I remember thinking the same in 2019 when they played medicore baseball for a long time after the WH visit that only half the team attended. We don't know what kind of aftereffects such a split might have had in the clubhouse but I have to wonder if it hindered their ability to play through adversity. We're certainly seeing a team with no ability to do the same now (although winning a Brad Peacock start was always a bridge to far to ask).

And it doesn't have to be vaccine or a WH visit or whatever; I remember hearing a player on another team comment that the evangelicism that's often in MLB clubhouses can split the team and have similar effects.
 

OurF'ingCity

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The inability to support a solid core with adequate depth was an issue in ‘19, and again in ‘21. Bloom whiffed on Andriese, Richards, Perez as well as Robles, and I guess the jury is out on Davis? He allocated too much of his budget on Ottavino to get a real fringe prospect in German, and got nothing from Gonzalez and Santana. Franchy seems likely to be non tendered. Jury is out on the minor leaguers acquire in the Betts and Benintendi deals. None of the AAA pitchers impressed.

On the plus side, Whitlock has been a revelation, Renfroe and Kiki have been great value, and Pivetta solid enough. Sawamura has gotten good results with lousy peripherals. But why has the team had so much trouble identifying and acquiring depth talent? Can Bloom fill all the holes the team has in the off-season?
What do you define as “depth talent”? I would put Arroyo in that category and he’s exceeded expectations significantly. Plawecki has been about what you’d expect for a backup catcher.

“Depth” players are generally going to be bad. The juggernaut 2018 team played Blake Swihart and his 65 OPS+ for 82 games, and played Ian Kinsler and his 64 OPS+ down the stretch and into the playoffs.

The bullpen (and pitching overall) was much better in 2018, obviously, but I’m not entirely sure what more Bloom could have done this offseason and into the season to shore that up more than he has. Whitlock has been an absolute steal, Ottavino has been solid, Barnes was amazing before totally falling off (which I don’t think can be laid at Bloom’s feet), Sawamura has been solid, and Josh Taylor outperformed expectations although he has also scuffled recently. What this team doesn’t have that the 2018 team has is guys like Brian Johnson or Hector Velazquez that can eat innings without totally shitting the bed, but that’s always something of a crapshoot.
 

TheYellowDart5

Hustle and bustle
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Apr 16, 2003
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I would wager if any one thing had a serious negative impact on the clubhouse, it's being a first-place team at the deadline and watching your front office add Hansel Robles as your lone pitching reinforcement.

As to depth, I'm not sure how much better folks expected when it's bargain-bin free agents like Perez and Richards and Gonzalez being signed. Guys like that have limited ceilings and increasingly low floors, and the organization doesn't have the minor league depth to make up for cheap veterans flaming out. The Sox kept their heads above water thanks in large part to a great core and the struggles of the Yankees and Blue Jays, but they were only ever going to go as far as Bogaerts, Devers and Martinez could carry them.

That's not to excuse this second half, which has been embarrassing on multiple levels. Just to note that this roster, while better than last year's shitshow, was always more stars-and-scrubs than a true contender.
 

cantor44

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There's a reason why they're "only" 12-16 this month. They're terrible around the edges. Their depth is non-existent. The defense is terrible. The baserunning has been awful. The situational hitting has been subpar since the All Star Break because by all appearances they are pressing badly. The relief pitching has been awful because they have been overused. And the starting pitching hasn't gone deep enough into games.

They also are undergoing a severe crisis of confidence. Every mistake they make costs them a game. Every. Single. One. Vazquez forgetting the outs and not scoring in CLE. Barnes making the one bad pitch to Springer at just the right time to lose the game in TOR. Houck getting pulled early and the bullpen immediately imploding. And they're only playing worse as time goes on, they are eroding in every area.

On and on and on it goes. They're losing to the teams they need to beat to stay in contention. A 2-8 road trip in TB, DET, and TOR. Swept in NY. 1-7 vs TB since July 30. The only reason they even managed to be 12-16 in August is because they went 9-3 against BAL, TEX, MIN, and CLE, all TERRIBLE teams. I suppose that's encouraging if they were expected to face one of those teams in the postseason but we know that's not the case. As soon as they faced an opponent of any type of quality they lost, and that badly.

I have never, and I mean ever, seen a team with such poor self-confidence since the Sox of Sept. 2011. You can see it in their reactions after every big out or mistake. Devers threw his helmet about 20 feet last night. Vazquez is playing in an utter fog. Verdugo is chasing pitches a foot out of the zone. They are panicking.

As for "well what were you expecting at the beginning of the season," that's a disingenuous question. In 2013 they were expected to be around .500 after the mess that was 2012; it's a damn good thing they didn't hold themselves to such a low standard that year. They played .604 ball in the first half of the season, they've played .465 ball in the second half. That's a massive collapse, and while you can say they weren't as good as 604 might indicate, playing .604 in the first place indicates they had more quality than assuming they were a .500 team. There's no earthly reason for them to be this bad.

It's unacceptable to play .465 in the second half, unacceptable to lose TEN GAMES to TB in 30 days, unacceptable to only be able to beat teams that are 40 games under .500. You can expect some regression from .604, and so did I, honestly. But to play .465? No, I did not and do not expect that. That's a 75 win pace for the full year and no one here would have accepted that at all.

What frustrates me immensely is that they had put themselves in position to make some noise this year unexpectedly with their strong first half. They were looking like a fun team, and getting a good year was such a relief after the emotional disaster of 2020 and the Betts trade. That would have been a nice feeling to have. But they've thrown that all away with poor play, lackluster managing, a curious lack of urgency at the trade deadline, and error after unforced error that spirals on them. We could have had something nice.
I think this post is pretty dead on.

The team may have been "overachieving" the first four months. But that's a long goddamn time to overachieve and assign that to "luck." They produced five deserving all-stars and should have had a sixth in Whitlock. They had the best record in the AL as late as 7/28. To Bloom's credit, he has added three excellent players below all-star caliber, but with solid WAR/etc., at reasonable salaries in K. Hernandez, Renfroe, and Verdugo - precisely the kind of players you need to fill out a high quality team (we might even add Arroyo to this list). He improved the pen significantly adding Whitlock, Ottavino, and Sawamura.

The collapse has been a very particular concoction of lack of depth, some regression to the mean, some weaknesses that were there but masked for a while, some weaknesses exacerbated by the deadline moves (Schwarber DH-ing pushing JD into the outfield, two new bullpen arms that were worse than the guys they pushed down to AAA), some bad - often devastatingly bad - managing, organizational lack of urgency at and just after the deadline, horribly unfocused/dumb play resulting in an endless parade of unforced errors, injuries, and now COVID.

There is no single cause for their woes, so no absolute scapegoats here. But remove any one or two of this laundry list and the whole season might look different, as the dominos then go in different directions. I think both Bloom and Cora, respectively, bear a great deal of responsibility for this collapse (and I regard both with much more skepticism than I did going into the season). I believe this IS a team, at full strength, with Sale back, and crafty deadline additions, that could have done (can do?) damage in the post season.

But now, adding the COVID cases, they're caught in a rip-tide so powerful that there's probably no getting back to shore.

But they were teetering even before this outbreak, and that's more about the players, the coaching, and the front office, than this crazy externality. And I see this collapse absolutely as a blown opportunity by the team and organization, and not an inevitable outcome. They very well COULD have won the division. But even with a wildcard spot, once in the playoffs, who knows what happens. Shit, the 1987 Twins won 85 games, the 2006 Cardinals won 83 games, to name a couple.

Maybe something miraculous happens here and Sox make it in, though the loss of so many guys now is likely the final and fatal blow. Upsetting on its own, given the reason (and here's to the health of everyone in the organization), but also upsetting because it's a red herring, and I fear may well obscure critical analysis of what went wrong prior to the outbreak.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I would wager if any one thing had a serious negative impact on the clubhouse, it's being a first-place team at the deadline and watching your front office add Hansel Robles as your lone pitching reinforcement.

As to depth, I'm not sure how much better folks expected when it's bargain-bin free agents like Perez and Richards and Gonzalez being signed. Guys like that have limited ceilings and increasingly low floors, and the organization doesn't have the minor league depth to make up for cheap veterans flaming out. The Sox kept their heads above water thanks in large part to a great core and the struggles of the Yankees and Blue Jays, but they were only ever going to go as far as Bogaerts, Devers and Martinez could carry them.

That's not to excuse this second half, which has been embarrassing on multiple levels. Just to note that this roster, while better than last year's shitshow, was always more stars-and-scrubs than a true contender.
FWIW, Austin Davis was also acquired at the deadline so Robles was not their lone pitching reinforcement. And of course, Sale's return was on the horizon. That doesn't really change your point that they did not get a big name pitcher as reinforcement.

That said, if that had a negative impact on the clubhouse, rather than them seeing it as the front office saying "what we have is good enough already", maybe they aren't mentally strong enough to succeed this season anyway.
 

cantor44

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FWIW, Austin Davis was also acquired at the deadline so Robles was not their lone pitching reinforcement. And of course, Sale's return was on the horizon. That doesn't really change your point that they did not get a big name pitcher as reinforcement.

That said, if that had a negative impact on the clubhouse, rather than them seeing it as the front office saying "what we have is good enough already", maybe they aren't mentally strong enough to succeed this season anyway.
I dunno. Certainly if a lack of reinforcements at the deadline causes the team to COLLAPSE completely, they aren't mentally tough enough. Though it's understandable if it is deflating and impacts play for a bit. Another way to think about, from a player perspective, could be, "shit, we're doing our part, why isn't the FO doing theirs?" It's a gut punch, I imagine, to see your competitors make aggressive moves while your organization does not ....
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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What do you define as “depth talent”? I would put Arroyo in that category and he’s exceeded expectations significantly. Plawecki has been about what you’d expect for a backup catcher.

“Depth” players are generally going to be bad. The juggernaut 2018 team played Blake Swihart and his 65 OPS+ for 82 games, and played Ian Kinsler and his 64 OPS+ down the stretch and into the playoffs.

The bullpen (and pitching overall) was much better in 2018, obviously, but I’m not entirely sure what more Bloom could have done this offseason and into the season to shore that up more than he has. Whitlock has been an absolute steal, Ottavino has been solid, Barnes was amazing before totally falling off (which I don’t think can be laid at Bloom’s feet), Sawamura has been solid, and Josh Taylor outperformed expectations although he has also scuffled recently. What this team doesn’t have that the 2018 team has is guys like Brian Johnson or Hector Velazquez that can eat innings without totally shitting the bed, but that’s always something of a crapshoot.
Well, the idea was that the Sox were going to be TB with $$$ and that Bloom was good at evaluating players. Why are the Sox paying Ottavino $7M when Tampa is paying less than half of that for Andrew Kittredge and Colin McHugh and getting 3x the production? Why give Richards $11M when Rich Hill has provided the same production at $3M? What specifically was appealing about Robles and Davis compared to other lesser profile relievers moved? They spent a lot of at bats on guys like Marwin Gonzalez, Fracnhy Cordero, and Danny Santana- why did they think they would be useful players when they hadn't been for years? Why have none of the AAA call ups been effective, at all? Were Downs and Winckowski the right guys to target in the Betts/Benintendi deals?

Maybe I'm being too hard on Bloom, and of course Whitlock (and Renfroe) make up for a lot of the misses but I think the early returns on player evaluation, esp on the pro side, are mixed at best. Granted the early returns on the amateur side look very good.

Good news is Bloom will have ample opportunity to make up for it as he's going to need to add a lot of pieces in the offeason (bullpen, maybe a starter, 1b help, maybe catcher, OF depth, maybe 2b, etc...) and he’s had time to better familiarize himself and become expert with what he has. I’m cautiously optimistic even if it doesn’t sound like it :)
 

joe dokes

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They spent a lot of at bats on guys like Marwin Gonzalez, Fracnhy Cordero, and Danny Santana- why did they think they would be useful players when they hadn't been for years?
As recently as 2019 -- the last normal year -- Gonzalez put up a 94 OPS+, which would be fine for a guy whose biggest skill is playing multiple positions at least competently, and Santana was at 112. I assume that had something to do with the "why they thought those players would be useful"?
 

ngruz25

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Sep 20, 2005
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Much was made in the offseason about positional flexibility and how the Sox were going to be able to play lineup matchup chess instead of trotting out the same 9 guys every night. And that's exactly how the season started!

In the opener, Hernandez was at 2B with Marwin Gonzalez in LF, Verdugo in CF, and JD at DH.

Game two saw Hernandez moving to CF, Verdugo to RF, Franchy playing LF, and Gonzalez at 2B.

Game three brought yet another change with Verdugo moving to LF, Renfroe getting the start in RF, Arroyo playing 2B, and Marwin spelling Devers at 3B. Hernandez stayed in CF.

In the fourth game of the season, Hernandez was back at 2B. Marwin got the start at 1B, and the outfield was Franchy-Verdugo-Renfroe left-to-right.

In game five, Hernandez got the day off to start, with Arroyo playing 2B. The outfield stayed the same, and Kike pinch hit for Franchy in the 7th.

It doesn't take too much effort to figure out what went wrong here: Gonzalez and Franchy were awful, and this plan fizzled out. I don't say this to criticize anyone necessarily, it's just what happened. I didn't love the Marwin signing at the time because he was steadily declining, but I liked the idea of being able to roll out whatever lineup worked best on any given day. That plan did not work. This has meant that JD and now Schwarber have been forced into outfield action, which is less than ideal.
 
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DeadlySplitter

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Oct 20, 2015
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This was brought up in a recent gamethread, but the reason Vaz has been so awful at not blocking wild pitches might be due to Varitek's implementation of the one knee stance this offseason. I would like some serious rethinking of that stance.