Except this year's collapse is happening earlier in the season and this time they do have Sale coming back this week, which should make a difference both in the rotation and in bullpen usage. They also have Verdugo coming back this week from paternity leave which will take one black hole out of the starting line up. They also have nine games left against TB, who could suffer some injuries. Arroyo should be starting his rehab stint next week. When Schwarber comes back they could have him at 1B and Arroyo at 2B with Kike in CF with Verdugo back in LF and Martinez at DH. Hopefully they will have Vazquez and Plawecki trade roles.
The bullpen is still a shit show with Barnes being ineffective in the closers role and others being overworked. It would be helpful if Whitlock could pitch at least two days in a row without needing a vacation.
Cora needs to stay with his starters longer when they are pitching well. I would have left Rodriguez in last night and Pivetta and Houck in over the weekend. The same arms are being overused in the pen.
What's happening now reminds me more of what happened in 1978, but they do have time to turn it around and they do have some weapons coming back to help them do that. I'm not saying they will, but there is a chance.
There's certainly a chance. They have 47 games left, over 54 days (the last on Sunday 10-3).
Counting today they have 10 games against TB. It's always swingier with small numbers, but if they go 6-4 against TB, they'd
only be 3 games behind
. But consider a sketch of the rest of the 2021 season as follows:
Optimistically, Sale's good for 9 (at the very most 10) starts, given he starts Aug 14 on game 43. (Also, I wonder if they chose the Sale start to have him queued up for a possible WC game? Calculations anyone?)
Anyway, optimistically assume good bullpen/offense in our rosy scenario and call Sale's team W/L record 6-3.
-Eovaldi is good for 10 starts. (6-4).
-Pivetta is good for 10 starts. (6-4).
-Erod is good for 9 starts. (5-4).
-Houck is good for 9 starts. (5-4).
All number pulled from my ass, of course, and assumes the rest of the team functions was well as they have at other times this season. They total a very plausible and decent 28-19 for a final 93-69. Which is possibly not enough to make the WC. (Even if they cluster their wins, making sure to send Sale against the Orioles and the like.
)
But that "hot" run would be a .600 winning percentage. Which'd be slightly
worse than our April (.630) and June (.643) numbers. Maybe we again get hot/lucky? Schwarber becomes our June E.Hernandez? Sale is Sale and goes deep to freshen up the pen? Let's say we finish at a .635-ish clip for 30-17. That has us at 95-68. Likely a WC team.
But will the Sox have the fortitude to cut Richards, who in the second half has an OPS allowed of .936? (No vomit Emoji, really?) Or do they give a giant middle finger to the fans and Tanner? Stay tuned and find out.
***
To bridge to the other discussion on the board, in the context of the above, a couple of primo starts really can tip a close season one way or another. But that's assuming solid play needing a bit of a "push" for those extra wins. There's no guarantee Sale would have done so if he made his final rehab start here and went on a regular day rotation (or will do so), but with absent some yet unarticulated downside, I like the above numbers that much better with an extra Sale start or two. I also like them much better if they were padded out with a couple of extra-wins taken from the recent skid. Which is part of why it's so devastating/disappointing.
However, let's say that skid continues and we lose the next two games and stand at 65-52. A 95 win season now requires a 30-15 effort, a .666 winning percentage. Devilishly tricky to do, and nothing this team has done yet.