Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

Smokey Joe

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Question: the article seems to suggest that all that the Cs need to do is waive Jabari and they can offer the full MLE of 9.8 million. Is that correct? If so, is it really true - as the article suggests- that the only real barrier to doing this would be Wyc’s pocketbook and whether or not he wants to pay the tax on a “bridge year”?
Maybe they want to keep Jabari. Maybe the celtics are having discussions with some else as well. Maybe Schroder is having discussions with someone else. Maybe he is using the Celts as leverage. Maybe the Celts are trying to lower schroder’s price.
There are too many moving parts during a negotiation to leap to Wyc doesn’t want to pay the tax. Especially when you can start the season over the tax and then duck underneath with a transaction later.
These are professional negotiators doing a dance. That article may have been part of it. The best thing to do is hang back, admire the dance and judge it by the results.
 

radsoxfan

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If I am the Celtics owner no fucking way am I paying the tax just to get Shroder on my team.
Not only that, but going back to previous luxury tax posts, non-tax teams split half of the tax revenue apparently.

With teams like the Warriors spending 170+M in tax, I can imagine that’s another reason to stay below. Those teams must pocket a nice chunk of change.
 

sezwho

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Not only that, but going back to previous luxury tax posts, non-tax teams split half of the tax revenue apparently.

With teams like the Warriors spending 170+M in tax, I can imagine that’s another reason to stay below. Those teams must pocket a nice chunk of change.
At least for 19-20 it was less than I thought: 196k
 

BigSoxFan

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Not only that, but going back to previous luxury tax posts, non-tax teams split half of the tax revenue apparently.

With teams like the Warriors spending 170+M in tax, I can imagine that’s another reason to stay below. Those teams must pocket a nice chunk of change.
I still can’t believe the Warriors are spending that much on luxury tax.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If I am the Celtics owner no fucking way am I paying the tax just to get Shroder on my team.
There are still plenty of moves that can be made to clear up space. We aren’t going into the season without a starting PG and splitting Smart/Pritchard/Dunn. That would be foolish.
 

BigSoxFan

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Warriors have raked in $400 million or more the past four seasons, and their revenue could hit $700 million this season or next.
They’re clearly not poor and can afford it but they’re spending huge incremental dollars for non-material improvements, like Kelly Oubre last year. It’s not sustainable, even for a team as loaded as the Dubs.
 

TripleOT

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They’re clearly not poor and can afford it but they’re spending huge incremental dollars for non-material improvements, like Kelly Oubre last year. It’s not sustainable, even for a team as loaded as the Dubs.
Take in $700 million. Pay out $450 million in salaries and luxtax. How is that not sustainable?
 

lovegtm

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Take in $700 million. Pay out $450 million in salaries and luxtax. How is that not sustainable?
Yup, the main issue in these situations is when you don't have the revenues to cover it, and owners have to come up with liquid cash when most of their assets are illiquid. Big revenue streams make that a non-issue.
 

nighthob

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Not only that, but going back to previous luxury tax posts, non-tax teams split half of the tax revenue apparently.

With teams like the Warriors spending 170+M in tax, I can imagine that’s another reason to stay below. Those teams must pocket a nice chunk of change.
Unless they changed the formula, the luxury tax revenues are divided by 30, and then the teams under the tax line get that amount of money, the remainder is then divided in half and then all 30 teams get an equal share of what’s leftover. But with Golden State and Brooklyn’s tax bills this year, it’s a good year to be under the tax.
 

BigSoxFan

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Take in $700 million. Pay out $450 million in salaries and luxtax. How is that not sustainable?
Because every NBA team generally has significant debt on their books and there are additional operating expenses that need to be covered.. Specifically, the Warriors are self-financing a $1.4B arena, if I’m not mistaken. No idea what the terms on that debt are, obviously. They also have access to NBA credit lines that they may have drawn on during the run up of their Curry era.

Like I said, this team can likely cover in the short-term it but most people have no idea about what NBA books look like (not suggesting you don’t). I’ve actually reviewed financials from a prominent NBA team and it wasn’t as rosy as most would expect. Obviously, the Warriors are a bit of an outlier here with their revenue streams. They have squeezed a ton of money out of Silicon Valley millionaires.

It’s sustainable in the short run, it’s not in the long run. At some point, they’ll rein it in
 

Big McCorkle

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Because every NBA team generally has significant debt on their books and there are additional operating expenses that need to be covered.. Specifically, the Warriors are self-financing a $1.4B arena, if I’m not mistaken. No idea what the terms on that debt are, obviously. They also have access to NBA credit lines that they may have drawn on during the run up of their Curry era.

Like I said, this team can likely cover in the short-term it but most people have no idea about what NBA books look like (not suggesting you don’t). I’ve actually reviewed financials from a prominent NBA team and it wasn’t as rosy as most would expect. Obviously, the Warriors are a bit of an outlier here with their revenue streams. They have squeezed a ton of money out of Silicon Valley millionaires.

It’s sustainable in the short run, it’s not in the long run. At some point, they’ll rein it in
As another example of this, as far as I know, the Packers are the only major professional sports team that has to publish their financial information on account of actually being a publicly traded corporation. The Packers are a bit of a unique organization, but likely aren't some sort of aberration, and in FY2019 and FY2020 they spent more or less as much on players (243 million and 226 million, respectively) as they did on other things like marketing, coaches, and administration (234 million and 210 million, respectively). I would imagine that, compared to the NBA, NFL teams incur proportionally greater support costs if for no reason other than having rosters more than four times the size of those of the NBA, but it's illustrative of a reality that should be fairly obvious, namely that major professional sports franchises have expenses that go well beyond mere player salaries.

For Golden State's level of spending to be sustainable, that spending is going to have to translate into wins that get butts in seats, specifically Silicon Valley butts. Curry's game will age perfectly well, but he's still 33 while Thompson is 31 and has repeatedly suffered major lower body injuries. Now, if Thompson can be his old self this year, they'll be fine, and their strategy of spending right now when they still have Prime Steph Curry is exactly what they should be doing. Still, it's a window that economically won't be open forever, unless maybe Wiseman really develops into a dominant big man.

There are still plenty of moves that can be made to clear up space. We aren’t going into the season without a starting PG and splitting Smart/Pritchard/Dunn. That would be foolish.
There are, certainly, a few players on the roster that probably aren't worth keeping around and could be safely taken out behind the shed to prevent a nominally 10 million dollar contract with Schroder actually costing about 25 million, but giving up picks to dump Carsen Edwards on someone because you don't think Marcus Smart is a starting PG seems foolish as well.
 

HomeRunBaker

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There are, certainly, a few players on the roster that probably aren't worth keeping around and could be safely taken out behind the shed to prevent a nominally 10 million dollar contract with Schroder actually costing about 25 million, but giving up picks to dump Carsen Edwards on someone because you don't think Marcus Smart is a starting PG seems foolish as well.
I doubt I’m the only one who feels Brad is approaching desperation mode at the position but to each their own. If Brad caves to Schroeder’s agents multi-year demand via a SnT over creating the $9.5m than we will know for certain how true this is.

Brad tried to include some of these dead contracts into the Dunn deal and failed. Not a great way to kick off your tenure. The next few weeks will speak volumes for our direction this season.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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snowmanny

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I mean, he was by all appearances being defended by a fifth grader, but I suppose even then 81 is 81.
 

Cellar-Door

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I have no doubts about IT's ability to score on amateurs, i bet he could even score a bit on end of the bench dudes. I also don't think he can consistently score on real NBA rotation guys, and i'm not sure he can even guard the amateurs
 

moondog80

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The courtship of IT seems to be just a way to smooth over whatever ill will exists toward the Cs for trading him when they did (however irrational you think that may be, Jackie Mac and many others claim it exists). And if it actually does help in that regard, there are worse uses of the 15th spot on the roster.
 

the moops

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I have no doubts about IT's ability to score on amateurs, i bet he could even score a bit on end of the bench dudes. I also don't think he can consistently score on real NBA rotation guys, and i'm not sure he can even guard the amateurs
He scored just fine in 2019/2020. 19 per 36, 41% from three. He can still get some points, but he is likely going to get hurt, and is an absolute disaster on the other end.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He scored just fine in 2019/2020. 19 per 36, 41% from three. He can still get some points, but he is likely going to get hurt, and is an absolute disaster on the other end.
Small sample and on court/off court stuff but opposing teams scored the ball at historic levels when IT was on the floor that year. You can’t play 5-on-4 against NBA competition......damn, we saw it last night with Holman against SL comp.

54B6FBF8-A8A2-44B1-9395-9B094EFE31BC.jpeg
 

PedroKsBambino

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Yeah, I think it's an open question whether IT can still be a useful offensive player---quite possible he coudl be. But he is almost certainly a ruiniously bad defensive one at this point and that is why he doesn't have a job.
 

HomeRunBaker

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WAS did have the worst defense in the league in 19/20, so while IT's on/off were bad, the entire team was kinda trashy
Sure but there is a difference between having one of the two worst defenses......and being 10 pts per 100 possessions worse than that when IT was the point man of the defense! To put that in context, 10 pts per 100 would have been the difference between last in the last and 2nd best behind the Bucks that year.
 

bsj

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Is there really no room at the very bottom of the bench for an instant offense minimum salary guy? I get he is a defensive liability but his role would be limited.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Is there really no room at the very bottom of the bench for an instant offense minimum salary guy? I get he is a defensive liability but his role would be limited.
There is room, but what is the point? It would be a novelty act. He won't play in the playoffs and there is no long term benefit.
 

HomeRunBaker

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There is room, but what is the point? It would be a novelty act. He won't play in the playoffs and there is no long term benefit.
I can’t believe we are still discussing a role for IT in 2021. He’s more likely to be in a Big 3 Championship Game in two years with Tacko Fall and Bol Bol. That would be a novelty act I’d watch and they would be pretty unstoppable.
 

TripleOT

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Because every NBA team generally has significant debt on their books and there are additional operating expenses that need to be covered.. Specifically, the Warriors are self-financing a $1.4B arena, if I’m not mistaken. No idea what the terms on that debt are, obviously. They also have access to NBA credit lines that they may have drawn on during the run up of their Curry era.

Like I said, this team can likely cover in the short-term it but most people have no idea about what NBA books look like (not suggesting you don’t). I’ve actually reviewed financials from a prominent NBA team and it wasn’t as rosy as most would expect. Obviously, the Warriors are a bit of an outlier here with their revenue streams. They have squeezed a ton of money out of Silicon Valley millionaires.

It’s sustainable in the short run, it’s not in the long run. At some point, they’ll rein it in
I have only public info on their financials. The Warriors got $300 million for 20 years of naming rights, and an estimated $400 million up front from selling personal seat licenses. The PSLs are transferable to family members, but the Warriors get the profit if a fan wants to sell the PSL at a higher figure (43k waiting list for season tickets). The Warriors graciously offered to pay back each PSL in 30 years (17-30 cents on the dollar figuring inflation). These two things paid for around half of the self financed arena.

They have $2 billion in corporate tie ins. In order to continue as the hottest ticket in town, they need to have a good team. I don’t see how they won’t be paying repeater tax for the rest of Curry’s career. If they continue to bring in $700 million in yearly revenue, they should be more than ok.
 

TripleOT

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I can’t believe we are still discussing a role for IT in 2021. He’s more likely to be in a Big 3 Championship Game in two years with Tacko Fall and Bol Bol. That would be a novelty act I’d watch and they would be pretty unstoppable.
Since it isn’t make it take it in the Big3, IT would get destroyed defensively, especially by young live bodies like Cuttino Mobley. Make it take it, and IT could be valuable.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Since it isn’t make it take it in the Big3, IT would get destroyed defensively, especially by young live bodies like Cuttino Mobley. Make it take it, and IT could be valuable.
I haven't thought of Cuttino Mobley in some time. Young live body, last I saw him he was quite plump.

edit: Now he's jacked. Never mind, damn.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Since it isn’t make it take it in the Big3, IT would get destroyed defensively, especially by young live bodies like Cuttino Mobley. Make it take it, and IT could be valuable.
Fall and Bol may actively cheer him on to get beat off the dribble. Imagine the look on Tony Wroten’s face when he gets into the lane against them?

Mobley was supposed to be on our Boon St summer league team in ‘97 but backed out last minute. I’m glad he would have swallowed up all my minutes.
 

BigSoxFan

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I have only public info on their financials. The Warriors got $300 million for 20 years of naming rights, and an estimated $400 million up front from selling personal seat licenses. The PSLs are transferable to family members, but the Warriors get the profit if a fan wants to sell the PSL at a higher figure (43k waiting list for season tickets). The Warriors graciously offered to pay back each PSL in 30 years (17-30 cents on the dollar figuring inflation). These two things paid for around half of the self financed arena.

They have $2 billion in corporate tie ins. In order to continue as the hottest ticket in town, they need to have a good team. I don’t see how they won’t be paying repeater tax for the rest of Curry’s career. If they continue to bring in $700 million in yearly revenue, they should be more than ok.
They are absolutely a bit of a unicorn in the sports world given their incredible revenue streams. But they won't spend like this in perpetuity, even with their vast revenue streams. My guess is that they've committed to blowing through cash to maximize/extend the Curry/Thompson window as long as it exists. Then, when they age out, I bet they'll quietly take it back a bit.

The big advantage that they have is that they now have a real brand in an area that is absolutely flush with corporate cash. Their long-term viability is pretty secure so, to your point, they'll be fine but at some point, I'm expecting a return to caring more about profitability. And I think that timing will coincide with the winding down of Curry's career.
 

lexrageorge

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I'm highly skeptical that IT is at all on Brad's radar screen. Stevens is not going to sign him to be the 15th player on the roster as a reaction to the silly theory of there being bad blood around the league because IT was traded 4 years ago.
 

TripleOT

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Fall and Bol may actively cheer him on to get beat off the dribble. Imagine the look on Tony Wroten’s face when he gets into the lane against them?

Mobley was supposed to be on our Boon St summer league team in ‘97 but backed out last minute. I’m glad he would have swallowed up all my minutes.
I once made Cuttino Mobley cry, but it wasn’t on a basketball court.
 

Cellar-Door

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Is there really no room at the very bottom of the bench for an instant offense minimum salary guy? I get he is a defensive liability but his role would be limited.
Even if there were, there are plenty of guys out there with better offense than what IT has left and MUCH better defense. He's not really that good on offense anymore either.
 

kazuneko

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Question: There is a lot of talk about a possible Dennis Schroder signing, but much of the response has been re: salary implications. Putting that aside, what do people think of his game and whether or not he would be a good on-the-floor match for this team. My sense of him is that he would give the Cs a much needed 3rd option who can create his own offense, while potentially being the best defender they've had as a starting PG in a while. Of course the latter assumption is more a testament to the Cs recent tradition of bad PG defense than anything else. That said, he does have long arms and quick hands and is known as being a high energy defender (the origin of his "Dennis the Menace" moniker). He seems to be listed at 6ft 3' on most sites, though I've also seen 6ft 1' and 6ft 2'. His wingspan is apparently 6ft 8'. His biggest flaw - presumably - would be his 3-point shooting, which fell to 33.5% (after a career high of 38.5% the previous year) which - admittedly- is a significant issue if he is going to be paired with the similarly impaired Richardson or Smart in the backcourt..
 
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scottyno

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I can’t believe we are still discussing a role for IT in 2021. He’s more likely to be in a Big 3 Championship Game in two years with Tacko Fall and Bol Bol. That would be a novelty act I’d watch and they would be pretty unstoppable.
I know this is a joke post, but that team would be lucky to win a single game in the big 3
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I can’t believe we are still discussing a role for IT in 2021. He’s more likely to be in a Big 3 Championship Game in two years with Tacko Fall and Bol Bol. That would be a novelty act I’d watch and they would be pretty unstoppable.
I'm surprised no one picked up IT4 for the Basketball Tournament. I mean if Tyrese Rice can have his way, who is stopping IT4?
 

HomeRunBaker

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the moops

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Well here it is. The ball is in your court Dennis. You won’t have a greater opportunity to hit the market again next summer.

https://www.celticsblog.com/2021/8/9/22617794/report-celtics-have-offered-dennis-schroder-a-one-year-deal

It sounds like the offer is for the full-MLE of $9.5m. If he agrees to it we will then move Dunn into cap space and waive Jabari to avoid being hard capped. It’s the obvious move for us and from my seat probably the best one for Schroeder.
I am not a cap guy, but if they use the full MLE aren't they automatically hard capped? They would still need to move Dunn and waive Jabari.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This is the concern with Schroeder, right? On a one-year deal, he'll be about himself.
Aside from filling a need, the two best years of Schroeder’s career have been in prove-it years following a disappointing one (I’m calling last years Lakers season as one for him which is being reflected in his lack of demand) which is one of the reasons I’m pro-Schro for this team this year. Being in a contract year would be a good thing for us.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I am not a cap guy, but if they use the full MLE aren't they automatically hard capped? They would still need to move Dunn and waive Jabari.
If he agreed to the one-year non-tax payer MLE we would need to shed just under $6m (I don’t have exact number) which would obv mean Dunn being moved into cap space and simply releasing Parker from the non-guaranteed second year (this upcoming year) of his deal.