Trade deadline

EllisTheRimMan

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Yep he should be available on a really reasonable deal if they want him. Bonus it’s also a big defensive upgrade.
1B is fungible making the Rizzo talk just nostalgic. Former Sox farm hand... yadda yadda yadda.


Good problem for Sox to have going into the deadline. Super easy upgrade and there are few buyers. They'd be foolish to swap Dalbec in any deal. There's a reason he's in the bigs.

In short, When you're already one of the best teams in baseball and your biggest gap is the easiest upgrade in baseball (competent 1B that can mash) you're in great shape for the second half.
 

NoXInNixon

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Only if you think 100% of the current team is vaxxed.
But there's nothing you can do if players already on your roster refuses to get vaccinated. They have that right.

If you're acquiring a new player, not being vaxxed absolutely should be a factor to take into account.
 

NoXInNixon

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I'm much more worried about the rotation than I am about offense at 1B.

Washington has fallen out of playoff contention and they should be looking to trade pending free agent Scherzer. That's my #1 wish for an acquisition.
 

HPJoker

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This is a small thing but they could really use a bench upgrade to improve on the Marwin/Chavis spot.
 

cantor44

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I think that is part of the plan. Not sure if it is plan A or if they want that as a fallback but he's learning the position
I think this is certainly part of the plan. Along with Franchy taking reps at first base in Worcester. I think they are trying to deepen the offense with internal solutions, since it's already very good, albeit with a very weak bottom third. My conjecture is that with Arroyo healthy, bringing up Duran, and possibly creating a platoon between Cordero and Dalbec (and with Gonzalez ready to play a bit of D), they may be angling to use whatever chips they're willing to spend on pitching.

Of course everything depends on finding a partner and a deal they think makes sense, so who knows, maybe the only palatable deal they can put together is for a hitter. But with both Arroyo and Cordero taking reps at first, it sure seems they want to plug that hole internally if they can.

Arroyo is a good fielder - maybe he could quickly adapt to first ... if he could, then the line up substitution would essentially be Duran in for Dalbec.
 

cantor44

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1B is fungible making the Rizzo talk just nostalgic. Former Sox farm hand... yadda yadda yadda.


Good problem for Sox to have going into the deadline. Super easy upgrade and there are few buyers. They'd be foolish to swap Dalbec in any deal. There's a reason he's in the bigs.

In short, When you're already one of the best teams in baseball and your biggest gap is the easiest upgrade in baseball (competent 1B that can mash) you're in great shape for the second half.
The biggest gap is staring pitching. I LIKE all the Sox starters. And they tease with sporadic quality starts, only to fall back to getting knocked around the next time. The starting rotation is not championship caliber at present. Of course Sale with improve that if he stays healthy. Maybe that's enough. But even with him, another proven quality arm would help.
 

ehaz

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The biggest gap is staring pitching. I LIKE all the Sox starters. And they tease with sporadic quality starts, only to fall back to getting knocked around the next time. The starting rotation is not championship caliber at present. Of course Sale with improve that if he stays healthy. Maybe that's enough. But even with him, another proven quality arm would help.
Yeah I’d like a good starter too but I’m just not sure what’s available. As you noted, we have a lot of decent guys, so any acquisition would have to be a notable upgrade. I don’t think Bloom would pay what it takes to get Scherzer, and I don’t think the Nats will even trade him anyways. Charlie Morton would be a proven quality arm, but the Braves just made a trade to get Joc so I don’t think they’re selling. The other guys definitely available are like Kyle Gibson and Danny Duffy - two 33 year old rentals having career years with losing teams but that each have a FIP of around ~4.6 the past couple years. I’m not sure I buy them as upgrades. It’s just hard to find quality starting pitching mid season.
 

chawson

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Yeah I’d like a good starter too but I’m just not sure what’s available. As you noted, we have a lot of decent guys, so any acquisition would have to be a notable upgrade. I don’t think Bloom would pay what it takes to get Scherzer, and I don’t think the Nats will even trade him anyways. Charlie Morton would be a proven quality arm, but the Braves just made a trade to get Joc so I don’t think they’re selling. The other guys definitely available are like Kyle Gibson and Danny Duffy - two 33 year old rentals having career years with losing teams but that each have a FIP of around ~4.6 the past couple years. I’m not sure I buy them as upgrades. It’s just hard to find quality starting pitching mid season.
Duffy seems like a sticky stuff guy with a big spin rate drop and I wouldn’t want any part of him. Gibson’s changes seem more sustainable, and I can’t imagine he’d cost a ton. He’s also under contract for 2022 (at 9.3M aav) so wouldn’t be a two-month rental. He’s been excellent at suppressing hard contact this year, which seems in line with a lot of the Sox starters have been coached.
 
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Minneapolis Millers

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If we can get Scherzer or Rizzo for cost-effective quantity, then great. I don’t really want them to go over the the tax, cuz I’m not sure they need to. And I’m not excited about dealing Casas, Downs, or a younger upside guy like Yorke. I’d deal Dalbec, or Cordero in the right trade. We‘re going to have a 40 man crunch, so dealing numbers makes sense.

C.Santana, Gallo are other possible targets… At a minimum, I expect a BP addition. T.Rogers from Minny would be great, but I’m not sure they’ll deal him.
 

ehaz

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If we can get Scherzer or Rizzo for cost-effective quantity, then great. I don’t really want them to go over the the tax, cuz I’m not sure they need to. And I’m not excited about dealing Casas, Downs, or a younger upside guy like Yorke. I’d deal Dalbec, or Cordero in the right trade. We‘re going to have a 40 man crunch, so dealing numbers makes sense.

C.Santana, Gallo are other possible targets… At a minimum, I expect a BP addition. T.Rogers from Minny would be great, but I’m not sure they’ll deal him.
You're right, Minnesota is reportedly only considering trading rentals. Twins think they're contenders next year.

View: https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1416443388782600198
 

patoaflac

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If we can get Scherzer or Rizzo for cost-effective quantity, then great. I don’t really want them to go over the the tax, cuz I’m not sure they need to. And I’m not excited about dealing Casas, Downs, or a younger upside guy like Yorke. I’d deal Dalbec, or Cordero in the right trade. We‘re going to have a 40 man crunch, so dealing numbers makes sense.

C.Santana, Gallo are other possible targets… At a minimum, I expect a BP addition. T.Rogers from Minny would be great, but I’m not sure they’ll deal him.
Go for all the marbles Theo. I need a 5th WS title to overcome the pandemic and the home officide.
 

OCD SS

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Damnit, that squashes a pithy Berríos or bust post… I’m always a fan of using the trade deadline for longer term roster construction, and I think the Sox rotation has both been very lucky with its health and has good chance to hit a wall of regression as they make the innings jump. If they’re willing to trade Buxton because he won’t sign a long term deal, I would be more than happy to offer Duran as their long term replacement in CF as the starting point of a deal.
 

chawson

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If we can get Scherzer or Rizzo for cost-effective quantity, then great. I don’t really want them to go over the the tax, cuz I’m not sure they need to. And I’m not excited about dealing Casas, Downs, or a younger upside guy like Yorke. I’d deal Dalbec, or Cordero in the right trade. We‘re going to have a 40 man crunch, so dealing numbers makes sense.

C.Santana, Gallo are other possible targets… At a minimum, I expect a BP addition. T.Rogers from Minny would be great, but I’m not sure they’ll deal him.
With so little on the books in 2023 the luxury tax seems barely a speedbump. I’d love to see us get a chance at Scherzer for the stretch run and offer him a more or less blank check two-year contract extension. Would go a long way toward shattering this brittle Yankee contention window.
 
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Apisith

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With so little on the books in 2023 the luxury tax seems like a barely a speedbump. I’d love to see us get a chance at Scherzer for the stretch run and offer him a more or less blank check two-year contract extension. Would go a long way toward shattering this brittle Yankee contention window.
Yeah, I thought we tried hard to get under the cap last year to reset the tax so we could go over in the future years. We should go over this year because we have a real shot at winning it all.
 

sean1562

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I know we all like Dalbec but he is 27 next year and has been god awful this season. Why would anyone want him as part of the trade package? There are much better assets in our organization that teams will target. I dont think anyone is going to give us much for what is really looking like a AAAA 1B.
 

voidfunkt

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Scherzer would be such a fun fit for this team. I think Boston fans would love him.

I'd stay away from Rizzo because of the vax/covid uncertainty... not good to trade valuable assets for a guy and then have him thrown on the covid list or get someone else sick. Not sure how he'd jive either with a guy like EdRo that had a bad run-in with Covid.

I kind of expect Chaim to do something we don't expect tho, he seems like a GM always looking for the unconventional solution.
 

chawson

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Propose an offer that Washington wouldn't laugh at
It’s tough to square without knowing how much money the Nats would cover, but how about something like Downs plus Dalbec and/or Houck for Scherzer, Josh Bell and Hand/Hudson?

I think that may be an overpay in this buyer’s market. Who says no to Scherzer for Houck and one of Dalbec/Jimenez/Arroyo?
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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As far as trade assets, I'm still not sold on Duran as a CF'er defensively and as a corner OF'er offensively. I think his value is maximized right now and despite Jimenez' current struggles, I think he's the real deal for an elite CF package. Deal Duran.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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As far as trade assets, I'm still not sold on Duran as a CF'er defensively and as a corner OF'er offensively. I think his value is maximized right now and despite Jimenez' current struggles, I think he's the real deal for an elite CF package. Deal Duran.
Glad you brought this up. Can you tell us what you've seen about Duran defensively that makes you think this?
 

BringBackMo

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Glad you brought this up. Can you tell us what you've seen about Duran defensively that makes you think this?
Ian Cundall, who does an excellent job over at Sox Prospects and has watched Duran closely since he was drafted, put together this updated report on his overall game when Duran was called up:

http://news.soxprospects.com/2021/07/scouting-report-update-jarren-duran.html?m=1

Calls him a potentially average outfielder but makes clear he’s not there yet, and may never get there. To be clear, this is not some recent assessment.Duran’s conversion from 2B has been a little rocky.

Duran is a very exciting prospect, but he definitely has questions about both his defensive and offensive (home/away splits in AAA are concerning, and they’re still using the juiced ball down there) potential that have yet to be answered.

I, too, love Jimenez but to be fair, similar questions persist about his game as well. He is hardly a slam-dunk defensive outfielder and swing adjustments that he made last year during the pandemic to tap into his power potential have apparently not been implemented during game action so far this year.

still and all, I believe that speculation about trading ANY of the Sox’ top dozen or so prospects this season is wishful thinking. And I am glad that it is. Everything about Bloom’s stated approach and about the approach of both his former team and the team his former boss now runs tells us that he thinks long term and that he believes he can develop his own stars. I don’t seem him trading his cheap and flexible assets for another team’s costly ones just to give the Sox marginally better odds in the MLB playoffs crapshoot. I think Scherzer and his ilk, in other words, are pipe dreams. Perhaps I’ll be proven wrong but I think something like a trade of a mid-level prospect for a 1B bat who can hit righties is a more likely Scenario.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Is Scherzer eligible for a Qualifying Offer comp pick? That's the upper-bound for talent going to Washington. Does someone like Nick Yorke get your phone call returned?
You mean after 2022? With a core of Soto, Turner and Schwarber I would think the Nationals are trying to figure out how they can compete next year, not engage in the full tear down that a Scherzer trade clearly indicates. Also, Scherzer has a full no-trade clause and Boras says he only waives it if there's an extension offer. So I think we're talking about both top end talent to make the Nationals interested (no, Downs doesn't qualify) and also committing many millions of dollars for Scherzer's 37-40 age seasons. In other words: it's not happening.
 

chawson

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You mean after 2022? With a core of Soto, Turner and Schwarber I would think the Nationals are trying to figure out how they can compete next year, not engage in the full tear down that a Scherzer trade clearly indicates. Also, Scherzer has a full no-trade clause and Boras says he only waives it if there's an extension offer. So I think we're talking about both top end talent to make the Nationals interested (no, Downs doesn't qualify) and also committing many millions of dollars for Scherzer's 37-40 age seasons. In other words: it's not happening.
That report suggests a two-year extension covering his age 37-38 seasons could suffice.

Digging deeper, I think Max’s abrupt 200+ rpm spin rate plunge on his fastball and slider over the last month is a bit worrying. It could scare teams away at that salary, but it may be a worthwhile gamble that he figures it out. Either way it lowers the cost. The Nats aren’t getting someone better than Downs (a roughly #35-40 ranked prospect) for two months of him, either.
 

sean1562

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He is also an incredibly popular player that I would think the Nationals would like to re-sign. He is the best player to ever wear a Nationals uniform, helped them win their first WS, and has an attitude that every contending team would love to have in their clubhouse. While expecting a full season from Strasburg next year is probably silly considering his injury history, they aren't a terribly uncompetitive team next season if they have Scherzer in the rotation. A two year $30 mil a year deal is something the Nationals can certainly afford. I don't see a world where the Nats don't re-sign him, especially since the money on a two year deal won't be dramatically different from team to team. Why blow that relationship for fungible minor league depth/lottery tickets?
 

NoXInNixon

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He is also an incredibly popular player that I would think the Nationals would like to re-sign. He is the best player to ever wear a Nationals uniform, helped them win their first WS, and has an attitude that every contending team would love to have in their clubhouse. While expecting a full season from Strasburg next year is probably silly considering his injury history, they aren't a terribly uncompetitive team next season if they have Scherzer in the rotation. A two year $30 mil a year deal is something the Nationals can certainly afford. I don't see a world where the Nats don't re-sign him, especially since the money on a two year deal won't be dramatically different from team to team. Why blow that relationship for fungible minor league depth/lottery tickets?
He's a rental. They can trade him away for this year, and bring him back next year. I know he said he wants an extension as a condition of a trade, but people change their minds. Why waste a half a year pitching for a team going nowhere, when he can be a difference maker for a contender down the stretch?
 

chawson

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He is also an incredibly popular player that I would think the Nationals would like to re-sign. He is the best player to ever wear a Nationals uniform, helped them win their first WS, and has an attitude that every contending team would love to have in their clubhouse. While expecting a full season from Strasburg next year is probably silly considering his injury history, they aren't a terribly uncompetitive team next season if they have Scherzer in the rotation. A two year $30 mil a year deal is something the Nationals can certainly afford. I don't see a world where the Nats don't re-sign him, especially since the money on a two year deal won't be dramatically different from team to team. Why blow that relationship for fungible minor league depth/lottery tickets?
All true, but I suspect that the Scherzer camp has more agency than you describe here. Max has already achieved the goals of MLB players. If he wants to play for a contender this year (and the return is suitable), I’m sure he’ll have the opportunity to communicate that to the FO. I can’t see Rizzo standing in his way.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Scherzer isn't going anywhere. The Nats are 6 games out in the division. That's hardly insurmountable even as they've been scuffling of late, and that division isn't exactly full of world-beater teams.

Even if they decided to make him available, every contending team in both leagues would be queuing up to get him. The price is going to be high. I don't think Bloom pulls the trigger on a high price rental like that. Not at this stage in his team-building process.
 

chawson

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Scherzer isn't going anywhere. The Nats are 6 games out in the division. That's hardly insurmountable even as they've been scuffling of late, and that division isn't exactly full of world-beater teams.

Even if they decided to make him available, every contending team in both leagues would be queuing up to get him. The price is going to be high. I don't think Bloom pulls the trigger on a high price rental like that. Not at this stage in his team-building process.
Put another way, the Nats have the fifth-worst record in the NL.

I don’t think we should be Scherzer or bust, but the fact that we can theoretically offer an extension (say, 2/$40M) and absorb his ‘21 salary may give us an edge over some of those other contenders.
 

RedOctober3829

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He's a rental. They can trade him away for this year, and bring him back next year. I know he said he wants an extension as a condition of a trade, but people change their minds. Why waste a half a year pitching for a team going nowhere, when he can be a difference maker for a contender down the stretch?
Maybe he likes the DC area and his family is comfortable there. There's a number of reasons for a player not wanting to be moved. Plus, why are the Nationals out of contention in the NL East? The Mets are a walking disaster right now and they're only 6 games out with 11 games H2H with the Mets still to play while the Braves just lost Acuna for the year.
 

sean1562

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Maybe he likes the DC area and his family is comfortable there. There's a number of reasons for a player not wanting to be moved. Plus, why are the Nationals out of contention in the NL East? The Mets are a walking disaster right now and they're only 6 games out with 11 games H2H with the Mets still to play while the Braves just lost Acuna for the year.
Their schedule the rest of the season is pretty easy as well. Lets of NL East games, several NL Central series, and 6 games against the Rockies. Strasburg will eventually be back, Schwarber will be back, and Juan Soto has had a hot start to the second half. If they don't have a good week against the Marlins and Orioles this week, however, then I do think that could trigger something of a sale, starting with Brad Hand and Daniel Hudson.
 

E5 Yaz

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I don’t think we should be Scherzer or bust, but the fact that we can theoretically offer an extension (say, 2/$40M) and absorb his ‘21 salary may give us an edge over some of those other contenders.
You think that a $14M/year pay cut is something he'd accept?

Scherzer, if he's traded, could very well cost a package that could preclude trading for a bat to stretch the lineup.
 

RedOctober3829

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Their schedule the rest of the season is pretty easy as well. Lets of NL East games, several NL Central series, and 6 games against the Rockies. Strasburg will eventually be back, Schwarber will be back, and Juan Soto has had a hot start to the second half. If they don't have a good week against the Marlins and Orioles this week, however, then I do think that could trigger something of a sale, starting with Brad Hand and Daniel Hudson.
If Hand is available, I'd be very interested in him. I'm surprised he wasn't an All-Star. 5-2 with 19 saves and a 2.61 ERA(149 ERA+). 39 K's in 38 IP and a 1.10 WHIP. He'll be owed just about $5 million around the trade deadline and would be a rental.
 

chawson

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You think that a $14M/year pay cut is something he'd accept?

Scherzer, if he's traded, could very well cost a package that could preclude trading for a bat to stretch the lineup.
I think so yeah, with the money he’s made. He’s not getting 2/$68M at his age. Maybe the Sox set up a high profile rescue dog charity for him too.
 

RedOctober3829

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I think so yeah, with the money he’s made. He’s not getting 2/$68M at his age. Maybe the Sox set up a high profile rescue dog charity for him too.
He's still pitching at a high level. Why would he ever accept that kind of cut in pay and why would the Players Association let him do that even if he wanted to? Most if not all his numbers are in line with what he's done most of his career. He's even got a career low in WHIP as of right now. Verlander got 2/$66 at 36 years old as a comp. In fact, he may top Verlander.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He's still pitching at a high level. Why would he ever accept that kind of cut in pay and why would the Players Association let him do that even if he wanted to? Most if not all his numbers are in line with what he's done most of his career. He's even got a career low in WHIP as of right now. Verlander got 2/$66 at 36 years old as a comp. In fact, he may top Verlander.
Agreed. IF (big big if) he were to take a pay cut in an extension, I think he'd only do it for the Nats. He certainly wouldn't do it for a team he's never played for, especially if we're talking a 24-48 hour window of negotiation before the trade is consummated. That would be hasty and potentially a regrettable decision if for whatever reason he or his wife/family don't click with Boston.
 

chawson

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He's still pitching at a high level. Why would he ever accept that kind of cut in pay and why would the Players Association let him do that even if he wanted to? Most if not all his numbers are in line with what he's done most of his career. He's even got a career low in WHIP as of right now. Verlander got 2/$66 at 36 years old as a comp. In fact, he may top Verlander.
You may be right, it’s tough to speculate. But there could figure to be a correction related to the spin rate stuff, and the career-low WHIP looks a little suspect.

A9F16F59-7219-4693-A0FD-EB2312D5A2A8.jpeg495C8478-D34E-4E1E-A315-16066B4E3C21.jpeg
 

RedOctober3829

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Yes Frazier and Trevor Story are two very interesting names especially if Story agrees to move to 2nd base to get out of Colorado. Same goes for Javier Baez. At 1B, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Colin Moran, Carlos Santana, and Kyle Seager are all intriguing targets.
Schwarber is one of those guys who looks like he should be a first baseman, but I don’t think he has ever played there.
 

RedOctober3829

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Schwarber is one of those guys who looks like he should be a first baseman, but I don’t think he has ever played there.
He only has played 1 MLB game at 1st base in his career, but recently took ground balls at 1st in the wake of Josh Bell's injury at the end of June. In college he caught and played OF. I wonder if he would've played more 1B if Sam Travis wasn't on his team.
 

voidfunkt

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You mean after 2022? With a core of Soto, Turner and Schwarber I would think the Nationals are trying to figure out how they can compete next year, not engage in the full tear down that a Scherzer trade clearly indicates. Also, Scherzer has a full no-trade clause and Boras says he only waives it if there's an extension offer. So I think we're talking about both top end talent to make the Nationals interested (no, Downs doesn't qualify) and also committing many millions of dollars for Scherzer's 37-40 age seasons. In other words: it's not happening.
Am I reading bbref wrong? It says he's a FA for the 2022 season...
 

JBJ_HOF

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Frazier is the most over-rated player in baseball right now, he's going to crash back to mediocrity in the second half
 

chawson

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Frazier is the most over-rated player in baseball right now, he's going to crash back to mediocrity in the second half
Agreed. He’s a good contact hitter and a decent second-division starter but I don’t know why we’d give up anything for him when we’ve got Arroyo.
 

DanoooME

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Yep a mutual option which he’s certainly not taking.
There's no mutual option. The contract ends after this season. But here's an interesting piece of the puzzle per Cot's/BP:

2019-21 salaries ($105M) deferred without interest, to be paid in seven $15M installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2028
for purposes of annual payrolls (including salaries and a pro-rated 1/7 share of the signing bonus), Scherzer will earn $17,142,857 in 2015, $22,142,857 annually in 2016-18, $37,405,562 in 2019, $35,920,616 in 2020, and $34,503,480 in 2021 (salaries and bonus paid before the contract expires are not discounted, but 2019-21 salaries are discounted to $30,262,705, $28,777,759 and $27,360,623, respectively, as money paid after deal’s expiration)
for luxury-tax purposes, Scherzer’s annual salary is $28,689,376
That first box makes me wonder if any acquiring team is responsible for those deferred payments. If so, that could be a deal breaker. Does any team want to bung up their payroll $15M a year for 7 years?

His prorated portion of the luxury tax would be close to $10M. That puts the Sox over the cap.

This makes it seem that Scherzer isn't getting paid a salary this year. Strange. Maybe it's just the wording and I'm not fully understanding...