Bursting Your Bubble: the 2020-21 NBA Gambling Thread
- Thread starter DannyDarwinism
- Start date
The 4Q will be worse. Blowouts are the death of Unders.
77 points in the last 10:03, midway through 3Q the live Total was 217 and looking like gold, especially my 231 in-game. One of those outliers.
Edit: If you played the Over midway through 3Q you just beat the final number by 44 points. LOL
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Celtics/Wiz looking good early.
DK is running one of their can’t lose Hammer the Over promos on Clippers/Mavs game 1. $25 max bet at +100, total will be sub-100 by game time.
DK is running one of their can’t lose Hammer the Over promos on Clippers/Mavs game 1. $25 max bet at +100, total will be sub-100 by game time.
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Yes, this is what a playoff game is supposed to look like when both teams compete. Let’s keep it up.
Made 3 first-round series plays tonight. Two small invests in Miami (+235) and Atlanta (-115). Then came the unload on Portland (-120) over the injury-ravaged Nuggets.
I could write 2k words on why I feel this series won’t see a 6th game. Brief version.....Blazers have perimeter shooters and scorers all over the floor with Dame, CJ, and Powell with Melo and Kanter off the bench. Nuggets being without 3 of their top 4 perimeter players in Murray, Barton and Dozier is going to be a nightmare perimeter matchup. They will now be relying upon Campazzo and Austin Rivers as their starting backcourt to go up against Dame/CJ. If this wasn’t enough you have Jokic facing arguably his toughest matchup in the league in Nurkic as they have historically had similar numbers in their H2H matchups over the years.
Aside from the strong series wager I have the Blazers to win in 5 at +550 and to sweep at +1500 for equal amounts.
Edit: Wanted to add that I’ll obv be on the Blazers in the individual games provided nothing bizarre happens with the number but also will be on the Margin of Victory numbers as I expect 1-2 20-pt blowouts in this series. I will admittedly be way more overexposed on the Blazers here than my discipline should be. I’m good with it though as I feel the edge supports it.
I could write 2k words on why I feel this series won’t see a 6th game. Brief version.....Blazers have perimeter shooters and scorers all over the floor with Dame, CJ, and Powell with Melo and Kanter off the bench. Nuggets being without 3 of their top 4 perimeter players in Murray, Barton and Dozier is going to be a nightmare perimeter matchup. They will now be relying upon Campazzo and Austin Rivers as their starting backcourt to go up against Dame/CJ. If this wasn’t enough you have Jokic facing arguably his toughest matchup in the league in Nurkic as they have historically had similar numbers in their H2H matchups over the years.
Aside from the strong series wager I have the Blazers to win in 5 at +550 and to sweep at +1500 for equal amounts.
Edit: Wanted to add that I’ll obv be on the Blazers in the individual games provided nothing bizarre happens with the number but also will be on the Margin of Victory numbers as I expect 1-2 20-pt blowouts in this series. I will admittedly be way more overexposed on the Blazers here than my discipline should be. I’m good with it though as I feel the edge supports it.
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Good write up. Do you have a units breakdown for the series wagers?
Portland is +100 on my book. Going to be a green May.
Portland is +100 on my book. Going to be a green May.
The other two were .75 unit of what I’d play on a regular game. Blazer series is 3x my normal single game play. The two series result plays were .4 of regular play.
Food for thought:
The Spurs and Grizz played three times earlier this year. The game totals closed at 230, 220, and 222.......the results were 250, 235 and 231.
The Spurs and Grizz played three times earlier this year. The game totals closed at 230, 220, and 222.......the results were 250, 235 and 231.
That's a little bit more than food, buddy. Jesus.
I feel like im going to irrationally spend and lose money on Steph’s point total tonight.
I am playing both favorites tonight. The Spurs have been fading for awhile but I’m not ready to fully trust the Grizz so going with Memphis -4 for only .6 unit in the early game. Lean to the Over but haven’t yet decided best way to attack it.
Lakers number should be higher. Yeah I know Steph.......however the significant matchups favor the Lakers all over the floor and it will be easier to scheme to slow Steph than it will to slow LeBron, AD and Schroeder. The other thing is Steph is less lethal on the road. Lakers -5.5 for say 1.25 unit. If I can find Margin of Victory numbers I’ll consider since I don’t feel this game will be particularly close. Nothing preflop on the Total but as always looking at 2H and especially 4Q Unders if conditions are there for it.
Lakers number should be higher. Yeah I know Steph.......however the significant matchups favor the Lakers all over the floor and it will be easier to scheme to slow Steph than it will to slow LeBron, AD and Schroeder. The other thing is Steph is less lethal on the road. Lakers -5.5 for say 1.25 unit. If I can find Margin of Victory numbers I’ll consider since I don’t feel this game will be particularly close. Nothing preflop on the Total but as always looking at 2H and especially 4Q Unders if conditions are there for it.
I kind of hate tonight because I wound up heavy on the Lakers as well, which directly would go against my rooting interest.
I guess it’s a good thing I’ll probably be asleep before the game ends anyway.
The expectations the media/public seem to have for Steph tonight are insane to me considering the matchup. It’ possible he goes for 40+ and the Warriors win, but to me that will be an all-time type performance, not something to throw out as a most likely scenario. So go Lakers...I guess...yuck.
I guess it’s a good thing I’ll probably be asleep before the game ends anyway.
The expectations the media/public seem to have for Steph tonight are insane to me considering the matchup. It’ possible he goes for 40+ and the Warriors win, but to me that will be an all-time type performance, not something to throw out as a most likely scenario. So go Lakers...I guess...yuck.
Tough push for the Grizz. Rudy Gay 3 and multiple missed FTs in the last two Memphis possessions.
* Played some Heat +5.5 early, roughly .5 unit. I’d look for some in-game following a Bucks run if I we can get better too.
* Under 217.5 Clippers/Mavs 1.25 U
* Portland +1.5 1.25 U
* Under 217.5 Clippers/Mavs 1.25 U
* Portland +1.5 1.25 U
Blazers.....shooters all over the floor.
Nuggets.....Campazzo & Rivers crunch time backcourt. Yowza! My +1500 series sweep ticket is seriously live.
3-0 here with anotjer combined 6-0 in-game (Heat +7.5 & +8.5.....U221.5 & U219.5 Mavs.....Nets -4.5 & -8.5) and my MMA buddy said Rob Font is mispriced at -120 that he should be +300 or more. Playoff HRB just flipped the switch and made Playoff Rondo look like Playoff Austin Rivers!!! LFG!! I may or may not have began drinking in 3Q of C’s/Nets but this was a fvckin day!
I don’t see any reason not to lean Under in first 3 games again preflop while also looking for better number after a 1H rush. Always love spots to be had in the playoffs.
Aside from that playing Phoenix good along with a sprinkle of a correlated parlay w the Under.
Wow I guess I did drink a bit. Sorry for assholish 2am post.
Aside from that playing Phoenix good along with a sprinkle of a correlated parlay w the Under.
Wow I guess I did drink a bit. Sorry for assholish 2am post.
Sixers Under was looking promising until the 25-pt layup line in the final 2:35 of the half lands us with negative equity. Adding some U235.
This game could really shape up similar to the Sixers game. Play-in winners come in loose while the favorite shakes off rust in 1H. Could be great spot for a Utah 2H play if they are trailing at the half. I’m strongly rooting for this so I can make a good play.
Edit: Here ya go. Utah -2 is strong at the half.
Edit: Here ya go. Utah -2 is strong at the half.
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Every year there is an overreaction to the result of G1 of a series. If you liked teams like the LA Clippers, LA Lakers (Paul’s injury could open the series door) or Utah to win their series or win the conference you will be getting fantastic prices in the morning.
Not sure I'm seeing any value on those lines this morning. Lakers -116, Clippers -158, Utah -357.
* Lean Miami +5 in first game. No op on Total.
* Playing Under 226.5 Portland/Denver. There is a cap on points with these games played at such slow pace even though neither seemingly can stop the other.
* (Hedge) I rarely hedge and when I do I don’t think it’s ever been in G2 of a 7-game series yet here we are. This G2 is imo the ONLY game that the Nuggets have a chance to steal a win. I can see a combination of the Nuggets playing desperate with Portland somewhat complacent but a Blazer win makes my +1500 “Portland in 4” play gold.......so we are playing Denver ML in this one even though Blazers win this one 55-60% imo.
* Playing Under 226.5 Portland/Denver. There is a cap on points with these games played at such slow pace even though neither seemingly can stop the other.
* (Hedge) I rarely hedge and when I do I don’t think it’s ever been in G2 of a 7-game series yet here we are. This G2 is imo the ONLY game that the Nuggets have a chance to steal a win. I can see a combination of the Nuggets playing desperate with Portland somewhat complacent but a Blazer win makes my +1500 “Portland in 4” play gold.......so we are playing Denver ML in this one even though Blazers win this one 55-60% imo.
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Looking at Clippers for similar angle as last nights Blazers/Nuggets G2.
* LA Clippers 1H -5
I don’t trust them in 2H and I’m legit petrified of Doncic. They got out to big leads vs Mavs last year in playoffs. If they have a pulse, which I believe they do, they will have 1H double digit lead. No promises after that.
* Porzingis Under 29.5 Pts/Reb/Ast
Type of game where TBS (The Big Soft) gets lost in 1H and any comeback will be led by Doncic.
* LA Clippers 1H -5
I don’t trust them in 2H and I’m legit petrified of Doncic. They got out to big leads vs Mavs last year in playoffs. If they have a pulse, which I believe they do, they will have 1H double digit lead. No promises after that.
* Porzingis Under 29.5 Pts/Reb/Ast
Type of game where TBS (The Big Soft) gets lost in 1H and any comeback will be led by Doncic.
I can’t play Lakers as I feel they’ve lost their edge. The Paul injury does open their door in this series however. Too many uncertainties in G2 so riding out Suns series play and evaluate for G3. The total may not be adjusted enough. I’d lean Under there.
Thursday night G3, Portland is -4
I don’t know what a max play would look like but if there ever was one for me like one of those “100* Play of the Year Whale Plays”.......this would certainly be it. That is all I’ll say about this one.
I don’t know what a max play would look like but if there ever was one for me like one of those “100* Play of the Year Whale Plays”.......this would certainly be it. That is all I’ll say about this one.
Dallas shot 69% from the field in 1H including 10-14 (71%) from 3........and trail at the half. They have no answers for a hungry Clippers offense.
Played Clippers -5 at the half.
Played Clippers -5 at the half.
Bet sports they said.
It will be fun they said.
Ended up playing the Under and an live under too. As brutal as it gets.
Yup. It was either the Clippers 2H or the Under 2H. Made wrong choice. At least Kristaps came through for me to avoid the sweep.
Added a good Jimmy Butler props following his post-shoot around comments about deferring less and being more aggressive. I like this one a lot.
Over 24.5 points (+115)
Over 24.5 points (+115)
2/3’s of a nice sized parlay complete.
Utah ML, Mia/Mil 1st Under...
Now just need the Portland ML
I’d think about hedging. but led by the confidence a few posts up, I took a long look at that game, and wound up making some other Portland bets as well...so at this point I think my night’s just going to have to come down to Portland coming through.
Utah ML, Mia/Mil 1st Under...
Now just need the Portland ML
I’d think about hedging. but led by the confidence a few posts up, I took a long look at that game, and wound up making some other Portland bets as well...so at this point I think my night’s just going to have to come down to Portland coming through.
So fun that Butler quit on the game midway through the 3Q and is now seemingly protesting being left out there by not even looking to get involved. Go Blazers!!
EDIT: In other news, just Max bet the Bucks in G4. Line will probably come out -3.5 or so but will be 6 by game time.
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Yeah it’s been a rough week since my perfect storm day. It all changes now. #trusttheprocess
Friday
* Hawks -4.5 tonight pretty good
Saturday Early games
* Bucks -4.5 for lungs
* Blazers -4 for kidneys and bladder
I’m gonna say this is not the first time in gambling history that this sentiment has been expressed.
Variance is real. Roll with the punches is all you can do.I’m gonna say this is not the first time in gambling history that this sentiment has been expressed.
I have no problem with the Portland play or with the strength of it I was LOL’ing when game was tied (91-91?) as Denver was hitting 3’s at over 50% while Portland was at something like 8-27. Some things you can’t worry about when it’s a one-off.
Came back with these again:
* Atlanta -5
Much the best team, at home, healthy, and Julius Randle’s shooting isn’t something that gets corrected on the road in a key playoff game. He’s been pressing and there is MORE pressure than ever on him. I expect him to continue killing the Knicks in this series.
* Under 209.5 Lakers/Suns
Slow pace, great defense, early start time.....the gift that should keep on giving here.
* Atlanta -5
Much the best team, at home, healthy, and Julius Randle’s shooting isn’t something that gets corrected on the road in a key playoff game. He’s been pressing and there is MORE pressure than ever on him. I expect him to continue killing the Knicks in this series.
* Under 209.5 Lakers/Suns
Slow pace, great defense, early start time.....the gift that should keep on giving here.
Played Brooklyn -1 2H (-14 game) bc I like free money. I have -9 in-game from earlier. I wish I had access to some alt lines to lay -20 or something. This 2H shouldn’t be close.
Seeing this at -9 now. Have a significant chunk of a signup bonus on this one.
As an aside, living in an online-legal state gets your head spinning with all the different apps. Tough to keep things straight.
I don’t see any reason why this game doesn’t take a similar course as the Bucks and similar to many other G4 close outs in past years.
Home team exerts energy while hanging around early, may have first half lead at times......and then when the time comes to slow down a run they don’t have the same resiliency being down 3-0 without light at the end of the tunnel. If it does run similar look to play some Philly in-game at better number and/or the 2H line too.
Going about as expected.
* Added Sixers -5 2H
If this gets up close to 10 and the Wizards wheels begin falling off I’ll probably add more in-game.
* Added Sixers -5 2H
If this gets up close to 10 and the Wizards wheels begin falling off I’ll probably add more in-game.