Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

HomeRunBaker · Jun 1, 2021

Jimbodandy said:
I'm a bit surprised at the call here for classic distributor point guards. It's 2021.

It’s like the old “pass first” PG which really means that he can’t shoot for shit.

In today’s game your PG needs to be able to handle switches/PNR on the defensive end while being able to knock down 3’s with some level of consistency while getting to his spot with the dribble to initiate the offense. If you can check off all of these boxes you can be a good starting PG in this league. If you are missing in one or two areas, especially badly, you aren’t going to be considered able to start with first units.

Cesar Crespo · Jun 1, 2021

Rajon Rondo is a pass first PG. I like Rajon Rondo but I'm not sure he is what the team needs. At least not for any more than a 15-20 minute role.

pjheff · Jun 1, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
In today’s game your PG needs to be able to handle switches/PNR on the defensive end while being able to knock down 3’s with some level of consistency while getting to his spot with the dribble to initiate the offense. If you can check off all of these boxes you can be a good starting PG in this league. If you are missing in one or two areas, especially badly, you aren’t going to be considered able to start with first units.

If Kemba were off the roster, would you feel comfortable with Smart as the nominal PG or do you think that he is relegated to the small wing role?

Deathofthebambino · Jun 1, 2021

HomeRunBaker said:
It’s like the old “pass first” PG which really means that he can’t shoot for shit.

In today’s game your PG needs to be able to handle switches/PNR on the defensive end while being able to knock down 3’s with some level of consistency while getting to his spot with the dribble to initiate the offense. If you can check off all of these boxes you can be a good starting PG in this league. If you are missing in one or two areas, especially badly, you aren’t going to be considered able to start with first units.

Unless your name is Ben Simmons. But he ain't walking through that door.

benhogan · Jun 1, 2021

Cellar-Door said:
Even if Tatum becomes a top 10 guy and Brown improves... you still need more talent around them than the backup PG for the Detroit Pistons to be a real contender.
Wright is a solid bench player, but he's not really a starting caliber PG. You'd be just as well off starting Marcus.

"Even if Tatum becomes a top 10 guy and Brown improves"? our estimates vary greatly here

By the 2023 playoffs, I expect Tatum to be a Top 3 player and Brown to be a Top 10 player. book em Danno

Delon Wright is a good rotation player, do I care if he or Smart play the first 6 minutes of Q1/Q3? nope. But I do know Wright would play +++ defense, not turn it over, steal the ball, rebound, get the ball to the top 3 off options and hit wide-open 3s. He's much better than league average, his Def Box +/-, OWS, DWS, WS, VORP, BPM, ORtg/DRtg., PIPM, RAPTOR, LEBRON prove that over his career.
Not that I care who Detroit started but Delon was in their starting lineup this season. That's an easy one to find. I posted his stats since many don't want to bother looking him up before passing judgment.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wrighde01.html

Cellar-Door · Jun 1, 2021

benhogan said:
"Even if Tatum becomes a top 10 guy and Brown improves"? our estimates vary greatly here

By the 2023 playoffs, I expect Tatum to be a Top 3 player and Brown to be a Top 10 player. book em Danno

Delon Wright is a good rotation player, do I care if he or Smart play the first 6 minutes of Q1/Q3? nope. But I do know Wright would play +++ defense, not turn it over, steal the ball, rebound, get the ball to the top 3 off options and hit wide-open 3s. He's much better than league average, his Def Box +/-, OWS, DWS, WS, VORP, BPM, ORtg/DRtg., PIPM, RAPTOR, LEBRON prove that over his career.
Not that I care who Detroit started but Delon was in their starting lineup this season. That's an easy one to find. I posted his stats since many don't want to bother looking him up before passing judgment.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wrighde01.html

I mean, sure if you think they are two top 10 guys that plan might work (only might) but that's a wildly unrealistic way to plan

benhogan · Jun 1, 2021

Cellar-Door said:
I mean, sure if you think they are two top 10 guys that plan might work (only might) but that's a wildly unrealistic way to plan

and your plan is to bank on Kemba returning to glory. I find that unrealistic

benhogan · Jun 1, 2021

Cellar-Door said:
I mean, sure if you think they are two top 10 guys that plan might work (only might) but that's a wildly unrealistic way to plan

feel free to rip me if they don't get there by the end of 2023

PedroKsBambino · Jun 1, 2021

To put it a little less aggressively, a lot of plans succeed if you have a top-3 and a top-10 guy signed long-term.

The question is how you build a contender and/or optionality around what they have now, which is more like a top 15 guy and a top 30ish guy.

Cesar Crespo · Jun 1, 2021

PedroKsBambino said:
To put it a little less aggressively, a lot of plans succeed if you have a top-3 and a top-10 guy signed long-term.

The question is how you build a contender and/or optionality around what they have now, which is more like a top 15 guy and a top 30ish guy.

By adding another player of JB's caliber.

PedroKsBambino · Jun 1, 2021

Sure. What's the plan to actually accomplish that?

Cesar Crespo · Jun 1, 2021

PedroKsBambino said:
Sure. What's the plan to actually accomplish that?

Probably by waiting until after the 22/23 season and signing them.

Other possibilities are getting lucky and drafting that player or hoping TL/AN/RL develop into that player. They could also target a player in trade that they think could develop into that player. They probably don't have the pieces to trade for a player who is already that player.

PedroKsBambino · Jun 1, 2021

Cesar Crespo said:
Probably by waiting until after the 22/23 season and signing them.

Other possibilities are getting lucky and drafting that player or hoping TL/AN/RL develop into that player. They could also target a player in trade that they think could develop into that player. They probably don't have the pieces to trade for a player who is already that player.

Absent a Kemba trade they won't have max room then, will they?

On the second option, which player? That kind of matters.

scottyno · Jun 1, 2021

PedroKsBambino said:
Absent a Kemba trade they won't have max room then, will they?

On the second option, which player? That kind of matters.

It depends on what else they do in the meantime, but if they signed Fournier for 2 years, and are able to sign Smart and or Williams for relatively cheap amounts then they'd likely have a max slot open after Kemba and Fournier became free agents.

nighthob · Jun 1, 2021

pjheff said:
Instead of a point guard who can distribute on the offensive end of the court, is anyone else concerned by the lack of a defensive one who can keep smalls in front of him? I think that Marcus is generally overrated in this capacity, as his strength is matching up with bigs in switches, and Kemba is perhaps underrated in this regard, as he actually gets exposed on those types of switches. Perhaps Romeo can grow into this role, but if we’re talking about overhauling the roster with limited assets, a small perimeter defender should be an affordable upgrade.

Romeo's going to be the guy. Starting next year after Boston replaced Walker with Kawhi.

HomeRunBaker · Jun 1, 2021

Deathofthebambino said:
Unless your name is Ben Simmons. But he ain't walking through that door.

Yeah with every rule there is always the one-off who is Uber elite at other aspects.

pjheff said:
If Kemba were off the roster, would you feel comfortable with Smart as the nominal PG or do you think that he is relegated to the small wing role?

Absolutely not. He struggled with it in one game the other night being unable to get to his spot with his dribble, I wouldn’t want to see that for 82 games. Tatum ended up handling much of those responsibilities. It doesn’t make sense on the other end either since smaller guards can exploit him some but most importantly we aren’t able to use him against scoring wings.

pjheff · Jun 1, 2021

PedroKsBambino said:
Sure. What's the plan to actually accomplish that?

The reality is that there aren’t a lot of assets left to accomplish it. Outside of development from within or a FA acquisition in two summers, the hope would be that Tatum/Brown could recruit a disgruntled star to shoot his way out of town and swing a Jrue Holiday holiday deal using Kemba’s contract as ballast and all of our foreseeable draft picks and switches as bait.

HomeRunBaker said:
Absolutely not. He struggled with it in one game the other night being unable to get to his spot with his dribble, I wouldn’t want to see that for 82 games. Tatum ended up handling much of those responsibilities. It doesn’t make sense on the other end either since smaller guards can exploit him some but most importantly we aren’t able to use him against scoring wings.

I agree. I am less concerned with Tatum handling those offensive responsibilities moving forward, but I do worry about the team’s inability to stay in front of quick point guards who can collapse the defense. Who could be available as a defensive presence at the one?

HomeRunBaker · Jun 1, 2021

pjheff said:
The reality is that there aren’t a lot of assets left to accomplish it. Outside of development from within or a FA acquisition in two summers, the hope would be that Tatum/Brown could recruit a disgruntled star to shoot his way out of town and swing a Jrue Holiday holiday deal using Kemba’s contract as ballast and all of our foreseeable draft picks and switches as bait.

I agree. I am less concerned with Tatum handling those offensive responsibilities moving forward, but I do worry about the team’s inability to stay in front of quick point guards who can collapse the defense. Who could be available as a defensive presence at the one?

The disgruntled Jrue Holiday look-alike.

Cellar-Door · Jun 1, 2021

benhogan said:
and your plan is to bank on Kemba returning to glory. I find that unrealistic

benhogan said:
feel free to rip me if they don't get there by the end of 2023

Why would it matter if they get there by 2023 to the idea of dumping Kemba now and replacing him with Delon Wright? Kemba will be gone by 2023 and Delon Wright will be into his 30s with declining footspeed.

I don't expect Kemba to return to his glory years... I just don't think putting career backups at the 1 makes a whole lot of sense for this current team. In 2023 if they make it there, sure maybe you can get away with that, but next year?

I am fine with keeping Kemba over making bad trades to replace him with worse players. I am also very interested in any move that lets them replace him with either better talent, or players who have a real chance to grow into better players.

Cellar-Door · Jun 1, 2021

PedroKsBambino said:
Absent a Kemba trade they won't have max room then, will they?

On the second option, which player? That kind of matters.

Kemba wouldn't factor in, 22-23 is his last season. What would matter is what they did between now and then.

But generally it shouldn't matter. You don't really need cap space anymore to sign guys, what you need is for the guy to want to come to you and some matching salary. If anything one use of Kemba might be as a massive expiring to add to a pick or something to sign a guy who wants out of his current locale and whose current team doesn't want to lose him for nothing.

benhogan · Jun 1, 2021

Cellar-Door said:
Why would it matter if they get there by 2023 to the idea of dumping Kemba now and replacing him with Delon Wright? Kemba will be gone by 2023 and Delon Wright will be into his 30s with declining footspeed.

I don't expect Kemba to return to his glory years... I just don't think putting career backups at the 1 makes a whole lot of sense for this current team. In 2023 if they make it there, sure maybe you can get away with that, but next year?

I am fine with keeping Kemba over making bad trades to replace him with worse players. I am also very interested in any move that lets them replace him with either better talent, or players who have a real chance to grow into better players.

obviously, there would be other moves

but if you're going to compare Delon with Kemba then the C's get 1yr of a healthy Delon (who will probably play more games than Kemba) + $27.5MM to find another player + $37.6MM the following season to find a better player(s) than Kemba

Adding cheaper/moveable pieces on 1yr deals also helps the Celtics unload the Kemba anchor. Unless you don't want to cut bait with KW and think he could be a key part of a championship team?

PedroKsBambino · Jun 1, 2021

Cellar-Door said:
Kemba wouldn't factor in, 22-23 is his last season. What would matter is what they did between now and then.

But generally it shouldn't matter. You don't really need cap space anymore to sign guys, what you need is for the guy to want to come to you and some matching salary. If anything one use of Kemba might be as a massive expiring to add to a pick or something to sign a guy who wants out of his current locale and whose current team doesn't want to lose him for nothing.

Yes that’s my point—they realistically don’t have max FA space and so that can’t be the plan.

Cellar-Door · Jun 1, 2021

benhogan said:
obviously, there would be other moves

but if you're going to compare Delon with Kemba then the C's get 1yr of a healthy Delon (who will probably play more games than Kemba) + $25MM to find another player + $37MM the following season to find a better player(s) than Kemba

Adding cheaper/moveable pieces on 1yr deals also helps the Celtics unload the Kemba anchor. Unless you don't want to cut bait with KW and think he could be a key part of a championship team?

So we are trading Kemba into someone's cap space, then trading assets for Delon?

Also... we wouldn't have 25M the first year or 37MM the next because we'll be over the cap. I'd rather have a year of Kemba then his massive expiring to use in a trade (assuming he doesn't opt out, which... he actually might if he has a decent year next year) than Delon Wright and nothing.

We'll just have Delon Wright, then the next year we'll either have Delon Wright on a bigger contract or someone else who isn't an top player because we won't have cap to sign anyone.

Then Tatum and Brown will be thinking about leaving because they just wasted a year playing with career backup Delon Wright starting next to them instead a guy they respect in Kemba because Danny wanted to save Wyc money. If you ask Tatum or Brown who they'd rather have next year Kemba or Delon Wright the answer is gonna be Kemba, NBA players don't care about other guys' money, and they definitely think more of Kemba than we do.

Kemba is only an anchor if he prevents you from making the team better. Otherwise he's just overpaid.
Any solution that ends with Delon Wright as our starting PG isn't making this team better.

benhogan · Jun 1, 2021

Cellar-Door said:
So we are trading Kemba into someone's cap space, then trading assets for Delon?

Also... we wouldn't have 25M the first year or 37MM the next because we'll be over the cap. I'd rather have a year of Kemba then his massive expiring to use in a trade (assuming he doesn't opt out, which... he actually might if he has a decent year next year) than Delon Wright and nothing.

We'll just have Delon Wright, then the next year we'll either have Delon Wright on a bigger contract or someone else who isn't an top player because we won't have cap to sign anyone.

Then Tatum and Brown will be thinking about leaving because they just wasted a year playing with career backup Delon Wright starting next to them instead a guy they respect in Kemba because Danny wanted to save Wyc money. If you ask Tatum or Brown who they'd rather have next year Kemba or Delon Wright the answer is gonna be Kemba, NBA players don't care about other guys' money, and they definitely think more of Kemba than we do.

Kemba is only an anchor if he prevents you from making the team better. Otherwise he's just overpaid.
Any solution that ends with Delon Wright as our starting PG isn't making this team better.

you're totally taking this out of context and you know it. this is silly.

for example, this would be the "obvious other moves":
KW for Horford + salary
TT for DW

Cellar-Door · Jun 1, 2021

benhogan said:
you're totally taking this out of context and you know it. this is silly.

I don't think I am... it's a product of the whole discussion.
In which people say "dump Kemba" get good players, without a clear path between the two.
Or worse "dump Kemba" "play career backups".... profit?

benhogan · Jun 1, 2021

Cellar-Door said:
I don't think I am... it's a product of the whole discussion.
In which people say "dump Kemba" get good players, without a clear path between the two.
Or worse "dump Kemba" "play career backups".... profit?

Delon Wright was brought up because you asked who would you get as a ballhandler. I pulled him out as an example of a perfectly fine rotational player that could be a complementary player to the Jays.

Obviously, there would be several moves to get there, like Kemba going to OKC for Horford, which is one of the places that could probably benefit from Kemba's strengths.

No one cares about Wyc's p/l after ducking under the repeater

PedroKsBambino · Jun 1, 2021

benhogan said:
Delon Wright was brought up because you asked who would you get as a ballhandler. I pulled him out as an example of a perfectly fine rotational player that could be a complementary player to the Jays.

Obviously, there would be several moves to get there, like Kemba going to OKC for Horford, which is one of the places that could probably benefit from Kemba's strengths.

No one cares about Wyc's p/l after ducking under the repeater

Do you really think Wright + Horford is better than Kemba? I don't.

I don't care about Wyc's P&L but I do think being realistic about what they are likely to spend makes for a more viable offseason planning discussion. Sure, they could suddenly decide to to not care about cost at all...but that (to me) is about as likely as TT coming back next year as a 20 point a game scorer.

benhogan · Jun 1, 2021

PedroKsBambino said:
Do you really think Wright + Horford is better than Kemba? I don't.

I don't care about Wyc's P&L but I do think being realistic about what they are likely to spend makes for a more viable offseason planning discussion. Sure, they could suddenly decide to to not care about cost at all...but that (to me) is about as likely as TT coming back next year as a 20 point a game scorer.

It's about retaining Kemba's salary slot.

Yep, Horford/Wright would be an upgrade from Kemba/TT and give them more flexibility next year.

Plenty of teams have been blowing through the cap, that will be the cost of keeping the Jays and staying competitive.

PedroKsBambino · Jun 1, 2021

benhogan said:
It's about retaining Kemba's salary slot.

Yep, Horford/Wright would be an upgrade from Kemba/TT and give them more flexibility next summer.

I don't think either part of that is realistic. Then again, I didn't think they have enough wing depth this season and you did so....well, yeah.

benhogan · Jun 1, 2021

PedroKsBambino said:
I don't think either part of that is realistic. Then again, I didn't think they have enough wing depth this season and you did so....well, yeah.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyZKHvlrctQ

lexrageorge · Jun 1, 2021

Next season’s Horford is a hard pass for me. He’s not going to be better next season than this.

Light-Tower-Power · Jun 1, 2021

lexrageorge said:
Next season’s Horford is a hard pass for me. He’s not going to be better next season than this.

I’d take it over Kemba. At least he might be able to stay on the court. I don’t want to see 31 year old Kemba with that knee. It isn’t going to be pretty.

jasail · Jun 1, 2021

Light-Tower-Power said:
I’d take it over Kemba. At least he might be able to stay on the court. I don’t want to see 31 year old Kemba with that knee. It isn’t going to be pretty.

I'm fine with moving on from Kemba. I'm just not sure how the C's take a step forward without taking a step back right now. They don't have the right mix of contracts and assets to make moves; it's all robbing Peter to pay Paul. Unfortunately, I think next year is the dreaded bridge year to build for 22-23.

Light-Tower-Power · Jun 1, 2021

jasail said:
I'm fine with moving on from Kemba. I'm just not sure how the C's take a step forward without taking a step back right now. They don't have the right mix of contracts and assets to make moves; it's all robbing Peter to pay Paul. Unfortunately, I think next year is the dreaded bridge year to build for 22-23.

They’ll be a very good team if they have healthy years from Tatum, Brown, and Williams plus leaps from Nesmith and Langford and if Danny can bring in some more shooting. The likelihood of that all coming into place is up for debate.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jun 1, 2021

benhogan said:
Yep, Horford/Wright would be an upgrade from Kemba/TT and give them more flexibility next year.

Can't see Wright + Horford being better than KW + TT. You saw whaw we did to Al in the bubble playoffs; Al will be 18 months older. That's not even including the asset(s) the Cs would have to send over to dump Kemba.

I think DA would have been happy to trade KW at the last deadline for any reasonable offers but there were none. And if we internet cellar-dwellers can see the writing on the wall, so can most GMs.

Cellar-Door · Jun 1, 2021

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Can't see Wright + Horford being better than KW + TT. You saw whaw we did to Al in the bubble playoffs; Al will be 18 months older. That's not even including the asset(s) the Cs would have to send over to dump Kemba.

I think DA would have been happy to trade KW at the last deadline for any reasonable offers but there were none. And if we internet cellar-dwellers can see the writing on the wall, so can most GMs.

I'm not sure we'd have to send an asset to do the KW/Horford deal.
I don't want to do this to be clear, but I bet OKC would try to do something like.... Horford to BOS, Kemba to OKC, Augustin to BOS, HOU 2nds to OKC.
Taking a chance on Kemba re-gaining value while picking up few 2nds and having a team dump a 1 year deal through them to us.

reggiecleveland · Jun 1, 2021

Swear KD was telling Tatum to leave Boston.

Edit" Maybe just my bitterness

JCizzle · Jun 1, 2021

reggiecleveland said:
Swear KD was telling Tatum to leave Boston.

Anyone happen to have a video of this? I wasn't in the mood for the post game stuff.

nighthob · Jun 2, 2021

reggiecleveland said:
Swear KD was telling Tatum to leave Boston.

Durant's fake tough guy nonsense makes that team impossible to root for. And I looove James Harden. But fuck that guy. I hope the Sixers bury the Nets. I'm rooting for the Sixers to hunt KD with Embiid and for Joel to to run him over 78 times over the course of the series.

Tony C · Jun 2, 2021

nighthob said:
Durant's fake tough guy nonsense makes that team impossible to root for. And I looove James Harden. But fuck that guy. I hope the Sixers bury the Nets. I'm rooting for the Sixers to hunt KD with Embiid and for Joel to to run him over 78 times over the course of the series.

Wait, aren’t the Nets playing the Bucks in the next round? Or did I get that confused?

nighthob · Jun 2, 2021

I'm assuming that the ECF is going to be Brooklyn/Philly as I expect the Nets to continue their march to the free throw line. But rest assured that I'm rooting for Giannis too.

128 · Jun 2, 2021

Marcus Smart: "It’s kind of hard to be consistent when consistently you don’t have everybody there to be consistent."

https://theathletic.com/2627113/2021/06/01/season-over-for-celtics-what-went-wrong-and-what-comes-next/

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jun 2, 2021

128 said:
Marcus Smart: "It’s kind of hard to be consistent when consistently you don’t have everybody there to be consistent."

https://theathletic.com/2627113/2021/06/01/season-over-for-celtics-what-went-wrong-and-what-comes-next/

Well, it's also hard to be consistent when you're not good enough. Last night I thought the Cs got enough looks to make things interesting but they couldn't knock them down. Smart had several wide open 3Ps early that he bricked. Down the stretch, Nesmith had a wide-open 3P that could have cut it to 4 and missed. And Parker took 2 ill-advised 3Ps, the last one didn't have a chance. Etc.

And to me, that was kind of the story for the Cs all year - from game to game, we weren't really sure what we were getting in terms of production. Yes, a lot of Cs have the ability to take over a game but the problem this year IMO was that their baseline production - particularly on defense - was so low. Cs all need to be more consistent I think.

Maybe that's just another CV aberration.

lexrageorge · Jun 2, 2021

reggiecleveland said:
Swear KD was telling Tatum to leave Boston.

Edit" Maybe just my bitterness

Tatum is under contract for 4 more years at least. By the time his contract ends, KD will be 36, Kyrie (who, like Kemba, will not age well either) will be 32, and Harden will be 35. That's not a super team anymore.

So, Wyc has 4 years to basically do anything and everything he can to convince Tatum to stay. If Ainge is too tone deaf to make a connection with Tatum, then Danny needs to go. This really shouldn't be hard; the Bucks were able to convince Giannis to stay. The Celtics are not the AD-era Pelicans.

The hard part will be building a winning team around Tatum, given the squandered assets and failed free agent signings. But there will be players available this offseason and many more in the next one, and it will be on Danny to make it work.

In any event, Ainge's last day on the job should be the day Tatum leaves, and Wyc should make that clear.

PedroKsBambino · Jun 2, 2021

OK, so a bit of a roster re-set.

Assets:

PG: Kemba, PP (Waters) (Edwards---who doesn't really fit anywhere)
Wing: Smart, Jaylen, Tatum, (Fournier) Romeo, Nesmith (Parker) (Semi)
Big: TT, TL, (Kornet) (Grant) (Tacko)

Picks: 16th pick this year, all future firsts available
Exception: Roughly $11.5 mil of the Hayward exception remains available, though some complexity to using it given S&T rules and their lux tax situation

A few choices, which are not all independent, just to structure things a bit. Not proposing all occur, and there are many others people could pose in addition:

1. Swap Kemba's contract for anything else (motivated by getting off what looks like two bad years remaining, and in belief smaller/different contracts will be more movable, but with creating a need for a ballhandler/shooter to backfill)
2. Re-sign Fournier and clear space under lux tax (likely by moving Kemba, possibly by moving TT and/or Smart and/or having Fournier's market be lower than expected)
3. Package some youth (a combo of Nesmith, Romeo, TL, PP, Grant) for one or more veteran assets
4. Use the MLE to add a bench wing or combo guard
5. Deal Smart for an asset (in part to increase flexibility, possibly as part of keeping Fournier, and possibly based on belief Romeo can play part of his role?)
6. Exploring a sign and trade with remaining exception space, with caveat it triggers hard-cap and complex cap choices (we might want a thread on this---I have not re-looked at all the messiness here)
7. Trade for a vet with remaining exception space. Likely a fallback after decision made on Fournier and if cap space is cleared in a different move (Kemba, TT, Smart dealt?) Package a pick and exception for a Satoransky-level guy who is back end starter/rotation player?
8. Deciding whether to do anything with the 16th pick other than BPA (package with any of the kids to move up? Trade as part of any of above moves? Target a need--like the PP pick last year? Expect BPA is the move but not all the other ways to use the asset given youth on roster)
9. Very very lightly explore a Jaylen Brown trade? I don't expect it, nor can I come up with a viable one that makes sense given where they are, but I guess I'd listen---Atlanta one team with some pieces.

I expect there'll be rumors and thinking across all those and likely more. Is there a good way to structure the offseason discussion across a couple threads?

benhogan · Jun 2, 2021

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
I think DA would have been happy to trade KW at the last deadline for any reasonable offers but there were none. And if we internet cellar-dwellers can see the writing on the wall, so can most GMs.

Yea Danny was trying to trade Kemba last Fall, long before the trade deadline.

Is there a world where Kemba's writing on the wall could be #1 or 2 scoring option that can play ~50 games a year for a non-contender? Plus provide veteran leadership for a young roster with his positive attitude.
If I squint and look at those last 7 regular-season games I can see that. Or is that too outlandish?

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jun 2, 2021

benhogan said:
Yea Danny was trying to trade Kemba last Fall, long before the trade deadline.

Is there a world where Kemba's writing on the wall could be #1 or 2 scoring option that can play ~50 games a year for a non-contender? Plus provide veteran leadership for a young roster with his positive attitude.
If I squint and look at those last 7 regular-season games I can see that. Or is that too outlandish?

What GM wants a guy like Kemba on a non-contender? If a team is a non-contender, they are going to want to play young guys to get them experience and/or to get lottery odds.

As mentioned multiple times before, the Cs only option with KW is to take on someone else's problem/bad contract. So any potential deal is going to be full of risk as the Cs would be trading for someone who doesn't have a sterling reputation.

Put another way - BRef has a list of NBA contracts here: https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/players.html. Wall is obviously the worst contract in the league. GSW got less out of Klay (so far) but that's just bad luck. KW is the 13th highest paid player in the NBA this year. As you and others have noted, that's a problem but the bigger problem is that most of the other guys making over $30M aren't moving.

the moops · Jun 2, 2021

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
What GM wants a guy like Kemba on a non-contender? If a team is a non-contender, they are going to want to play young guys to get them experience and/or to get lottery odds.

I don't think Kemba on their team would really vault them into playoff contention or affect their lottery odds though. But I think the difficult part, would be finding a non contender who wants to maintain a max salary slot heading into the 2023 offseason.

CreightonGubanich · Jun 2, 2021

benhogan said:
Yea Danny was trying to trade Kemba last Fall, long before the trade deadline.

Is there a world where Kemba's writing on the wall could be #1 or 2 scoring option that can play ~50 games a year for a non-contender? Plus provide veteran leadership for a young roster with his positive attitude.
If I squint and look at those last 7 regular-season games I can see that. Or is that too outlandish?

I don't think that's crazy. His numbers this season weren't bad - almost exactly at his career averages, for both raw box score stats and percentages. Meaning, he's not the high-volume scorer he was his last couple years in Charlotte, where he was basically a poor man's Dame Lillard, but he can still score and contribute to a good team or even be a top offensive option for a young/bad team.

The problem with Kemba for the Celtics, I think, is threefold: 1) defense. He's lost enough lateral quickness that he can't stay in front of quick guards well. He doesn't have the size to matchup with anyone other than point guards, so that's a problem. Teams hunt him pretty relentlessly in the pick and roll. 2) availability. He played 43 games this year while managing knee issues that aren't going away. If you could count on Kemba being available, even the current version of him is valuable to a good team. He can be that consistent third scorer. But if it's a coin flip whether or not he's going to play, and you have to reconfigure your rotation every time he's out, it's hard to build a contending team that involves him. 3) contract. Another team could absorb Kemba on that contract, but for the Celtics, it's the only slot they have to put a third star around Tatum and Brown. The current version of Tatum and Brown requires a third star to be a title contender. If Tatum becomes a top-five player, and Brown makes another mini-leap, then maybe they don't need one. That's certainly the hope, but I don't see how you can count on it if you're Ainge looking to build the roster for next year.

NoXInNixon · Jun 2, 2021

It really just come down to this: GMs don't build championship teams any more. Players do. The Celtics need a third superstar and the only path to them getting him is for Tatum and Brown to convince him to force a trade to the Celtics for some flotsam and jetsam and a bunch of future first round picks.

Any other moves are just shuffling deck chairs around.

Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

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