I know things look terrible right now, but barring some other injury (which of course is always possible), when Smart comes back I think there is no chance this team misses the playoffs.
Especially if they added Collins to the mix without really moving anyone off the roster besides PP. I like PP but I'm not sure he'll ever be more than a backup. We can all hope he develops into FVV but I'm not holding my breathe and nor would I let that slim chance stop me from trading for John Collins.
I've come around on Carsen Edwards and think he could be a decent scorer of the bench in the right situation. Boston is not that, with a bunch of other small guards on the team. He's not of any use to the C's really and he has no real value in trades. I'm pretty sure if he got cut, another team would pick him up though.
The pick this year would end up in the 20s and the pick in 2023 would end up in the 20s too. The pick in 2025 may not even convey.
The only real issue is if the C's can afford to lock him up long term and what they do about 2021/22 with Kemba. They could pay the tax for that year and hope Kemba opts out in 22/23. Moving all those assets for Collins means it's less likely they could attach assets to "dump" Kemba. I'd rather they keep him for 21/22 as I think Kemba will opt out. I also think if he finishes this year strong, it's possible they could offload him in the season for a 2nd rounder. I think people are seriously overstating just how unmovable Kemba is at 1+1 left. Collins would also most likely mean the end of Theis and Semi.
After 21/22, they'd have Collins, Tatum and Brown making like $85 mil and they'd have to make decisions on Marcus Smart, TT and Robert Williams. They'd still have RL, AN and GW under contract and whoever they drafted in the 2nd round in this year's draft. So 7 players under contract at roughly $100 mil. They'd also be adding a 1st round and 2 round pick to the roster, so that bumps it to 9/105.
I'm not sure they could keep both Smart and TL, but it's possible. I just think both would require 4 year commitments which may give the C's pause. Given the roster construct, I'm not sure who they'd prefer as they'd lack a center and lack a PG. With Smart, they'd be at 9/120. With TL, lets say 9/115. This assumes TL develops into a 25-30 minute player. Otherwise, Smart is the obvious choice. With both, they'd be at 10/130. They would be either 10, 20 or 25 mil below the luxury tax thresh hold at that point. They'd have an obvious big 3, and either Smart or Williams. Then out of RL, AN and GW, you'd hope or 1 or 2 are solid rotational players. That gives you 5 or 6 players you are confident with, 2 rookies, 1 2nd year player and maybe even Yam Madar to add 1 additional roster spot on the cheap.
Assuming they let one of Smart or TL walk, they would have $20-25 to add 5 more players. Preferably 1 would be a solid PG or big (depending on TL/MS) in the $12-15 mil range to play 20-30 minutes a night and the other 4 would be vet mins/euro signs/undrafted players. That would give the C's 6-7 rotational players that would be getting 25+ minutes on any team. If they kept TL, they'd still need a back up big. If they kept Smart, they'd need to get 2... unless they acquired Collins to play at the 5. In the scenario they kept both Smart and TL, they wouldn't need to acquire anyone else of real note and it would most likely be at the same price point but for more years.
This scenario relies heavily on one of AN, GW or RL to be a 25-30 minute rotational player, if not 2. It also requires Kemba to opt out. It also causes problems after 22/23 when the team has to make a decision on RL and in 23/24 when it has to make a choice on AN. That's pretty far in the future though and if one of the 2 are really worth re-signing, they can probably move Smart and TL for value.
I'm not sure how the team would look in 21/22. I'm guessing much like the 20/21 team but with John Collins replacing Semi and Theis. 11 players are under contract for next year. The others that would be gone are Teague, Waters, Fall, Green. Nothing of value.
It actually could work. Building around Collins/Tatum/Brown doesn't require you to be all that creative either. Get a PG and either a C or another wing and you're good to go.
So if the C's did acquire Collins though, is it to play him at the 5?