2021 NY Spring Training

jon abbey

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Not many roster spots genuinely up for grabs if guys stay healthy, let's take a shot at it as we open camp:

LeMahieu 2B
Judge RF
Hicks CF
Stanton DH
Voit 1B
Torres SS
Frazier LF
Urshela 3B
Sanchez C

Bench:

Higashioka (Chirinos)
Wade (Estrada)
Dietrich (Bruce, Ford)
Gardner (Tauchman, Allen)

Cole
Kluber
Taillon
Montgomery
???? (this is up for grabs, and even more so as it will likely be used as a roster shuttle spot at times early on, German or Garcia or Schmidt or King or even Chacin for a bit, I will say German)

Nelson (Abreu, King, Kriske)
Loaisiga
Cessa (Adam Warren)
Wilson
O'Day
Green
Britton
Chapman

The bottom five relievers are locks, Cessa is out of options as is Abreu, not sure what the deal is with Warren.
 

j-man

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need to win the A L hou is down tb is good but without snell and morton not as good tor needs more pitching bos is at least 2 years away minn is good but lack a 3rd sp and their bats freeze in oct cws is the biggest worry but maybe more for 22 if boone fails this year i wouild bring in buck s
 

jon abbey

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Buck Showalter is not a championship level manager candidate in 2021, he wasn’t even a good analyst for YES after the initial novelty wore off. Anyway, Boone’s not going anywhere.
 

jon abbey

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The A's DFA Dustin Fowler, he is out of options so probably not a fit for NY unless he clears waivers and no one wants him on the 40 man. NY's AAA OF depth is pretty weak though, so would be nice if they could somehow snag him back.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Not sure how it is the coaching staff's fault that a young guy showed up at the most important spring of his life and decided to air it out.

This is part of maturing as an athlete and a person.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, exactly, you can’t make players have common sense and guard against every dumb possibility. Hopefully it ends up being a minor speed bump, he was probably 8th on the SP depth chart (Cole, Kluber, Taillon, Montgomery, German/Garcia, Chacin).
 

jon abbey

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Chacin is a guy a la David Hale in recent seasons who they will try to get one run out of at some point before DFAing him, that could be at the start of the season. I think that innings concerns this year are much more across the board for all SPs, because no one pitched a full 2020, but Deivi specifically is still so young (still 21, born in May 1999) that I would think they would decide on a rough innings limit for him, and if so, starting him off slow might be the way to go.

Chacin has been awful the last two seasons, including a bit with BOS, but he was a playoff stud for MIL in 2018, 1.46 ERA in 12.1 innings, and he is still 33. I am sure he has an out if he does not make the team, so that will be one to watch.

Schmidt going out moves King up to 8th, I think, and Medina or maybe Vizcaino (older) to 9th/10th, all of those guys are on the 40 man already. I wonder if they will put Schmidt on the 60 day IL, I guess that will be somewhat telling how serious they think this is (although also practically it might be hard to be ready that quickly if the AAA season is pushed back).
 

jon abbey

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Gardner officially added, Severino to the 60 day IL.

Justin Wilson has yet to be officially added, I read somewhere he is stuck in the Texas mess.
 

jon abbey

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I wonder if NY could use the 5th SP spot as a flexible roster spot in the early part of the season, rotating guys up when needed (German and Deivi and King all have options plus whichever veterans agree to stick around as potential depth) and a reliever in between starts, and that way they could keep a 5th bench player, so 2 of Dietrich/Bruce/Tauchman/Chirinos in addition to Gardner, Higashioka, and a middle infielder (Wade/Estrada/maybe Peraza).
 

jon abbey

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Wade and Estrada competing for a bench spot, Bruce/Dietrich/Ford competing for another bench spot.

SS Tyler Wade
C Gary Sanchez
CF Aaron Hicks
LF Jay Bruce
3B Derek Dietrich
1B Mike Ford
DH Kyle Higashioka
RF Ryan Lamarre
2B Thairo Estrada
 

jon abbey

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Curious to see Chacin and Nelson also:

"Gerrit Cole starts for the #Yankees today. Probable relievers are Jameson Taillon, Jhoulys Chacín, Nick Nelson and Tyler Lyons."
 

jon abbey

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Greg Allen cleared waivers and was assigned to AAA, that helps a little with OF depth and maybe makes it more likely they deal Tauchman before Opening Day.
 

jon abbey

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Nick Nelson with two scoreless innings Monday, he was sitting 97-98 with his FB already but got all his outs with his changeup, which Boone talked about afterwards.

https://nypost.com/2021/03/01/yankees-nick-nelson-flashing-special-changeup/
They are currently planning on starting him in the AAA rotation and stretching him out to start the year, but he will be up in some role sooner rather than later, I'm sure.
 

jon abbey

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Derek Dietrich got plunked in the back today, which after a bit of research, led me to the possible conclusion that he might get HBP more per PA than anyone in the history of baseball. I don't know how to look that up definitively but here are the ratios of the modern players with the most career HBPs:

Biggio (modern career leader) 285/10876=every 38 PAs
Baylor 267/9401=every 35 PAs
Kendall 254/8702=every 34 PAs
Hunt 243/6158=every 25 PAs

Dietrich 123/2513=every 20.4 PAs
 

Brand Name

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Solved, he’s second most all-time. Figured to take the players with 100+ HBP, and then sort ascending (smallest first) in Play Index by career PA.

DD is the only one to have over 100+ plunks in sub 3,000 PAs. However, all time leader Hughie Jennings, with 287? 5,648 PAs. Once every 19.7 PAs.

I know you don’t truly consider Jennings’ era of baseball for a number of reasons, but I figure if you say history of baseball, that’s an excuse to make an exception.

Jennings lived a life of pain in and out of baseball. Was rendered unconscious for three-four days in 1897 by an Amos Rusie pitch. Jumped into an empty pool and fractured his skull in 1904 while attending law school, missed no classes. Fractured his skull again, alongside a concussion, breaking three extremities in 1911 with an off-season car accident he got as a gift. They thought he wouldn’t survive it all.
 

Tuff Ghost

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The last couple of posts got me interested in players with high HBP rates. I expanded the criteria a little further (players hit at least 32 times) and found some interesting names on the list:

Name PA HBP HBP/PA
Brandon Guyer 1487 85 17.49
Hughie Jennings 5639 287 19.65
Derek Dietrich 2513 123 20.43
F.P. Santangelo 2075 83 25.00
Ron Hunt 6158 243 25.34
Carlos Quentin 3247 127 25.57
Craig Wilson 2311 90 25.68
Dan McGann 6047 230 26.29
Sal Fasano 1245 47 26.49
Tommy Tucker 7266 272 26.71

This Ron Hunt tidbit was interesting:
Ron Hunt was hit 50 times in 1971, which destroyed the previous record by a whopping 19. That number is made more interesting to me by Hunt’s 58 walks and his 41 strikeouts. He was hit more often than he struck out! That’s an incredibly rare, if not, unprecedented achievement over a full season. Hunt’s 50 times reaching base via getting hit accounted for almost 20% of his OBP. If, somehow, all 50 of those had been outs instead, Hunt’s OBP would have been 80 points lower.
This article on Brandon Guyer also led to some great tweets about him.

This tweet shows a graphic of all of Guyer's HBPs in 2016 (through August 27- he still had a few more!) versus where all major leaguers were hit. He even has one in the strike zone and seems to have a higher percentage of lower body HBPs than typical:
View: https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/769630921104293888?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E769630921104293888%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mlb.com%2Fnews%2Findians-brandon-guyer-is-hit-by-pitch-king-c198044534


And then another tweet with a graphic of where on his body he was hit:
View: https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/769679812256346112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E769679812256346112%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mlb.com%2Fnews%2Findians-brandon-guyer-is-hit-by-pitch-king-c198044534
 

terrynever

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Maybe HBP is another way to liven up today’s game. Walk, strikeout, homer, HBP. Let’s give the hittee two bases for taking one in the helmet.
I hated Ron Hunt!
 

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Ha, that's great.

Oh and I forgot to mention noticing two certain AL East managers on my list (the list was top 1000 HBP players, which went up to players with at least 32 HBP in their career), with a final tally showing a distinct Boston & New York bias as usual!
Name PA HBP HBP/PA Rank
Alex Cora 3825 90 42.50 57th
Aaron Boone 4333 80 54.16 127th
Kevin Cash 714 9 79.33 n/a
Charlie Montoyo 5 0 0 n/a
Brandon Hyde 0 0 0 n/a
 

jon abbey

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He evidently had semi-bad Covid in January so he has been ramping up slowly and that was his first bullpen, so it’s possible, he answers, optimistically.
 

terrynever

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He evidently had semi-bad Covid in January so he has been ramping up slowly and that was his first bullpen, so it’s possible, he answers, optimistically.
I believe it. Seth Curry hasn’t looked right for 76ers since he went through a semi-tough case in December.
 

jon abbey

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With Britton out for a few months and with a couple weeks of spring training games in the books, here's where I think the roster stands. I think that barring an IL stint for a position player, they are going to start the season with 14 position players, 8 relievers and 4 starters, with all of German, Deivi and King staying stretched out at the alternate site/in AAA.

LeMahieu 2B
Judge RF
Hicks CF
Stanton DH
Voit 1B
Torres SS
Frazier LF
Urshela 3B
Sanchez C

Bench:

Higashioka (Chirinos)
Wade (Estrada)
Dietrich (Ford)
Bruce (Andujar)
Gardner (Tauchman, who has no options and will have to be moved if he doesn't make the team)

Cole
Kluber
Taillon
Montgomery

Nelson (Abreu, King, Kriske)
Loaisiga
Warren (Cessa dumped)
Luetge (a lefty who tops out at 90, but who has huge spin rates on his multiple breaking balls. He hasn't pitched in the bigs since 2015, but NY has been after him for a couple years and he has looked awesome so far, striking out McCutchen/Didi/Harper in a row yesterday.)
Wilson
O'Day
Green
Chapman
 

jon abbey

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That bullpen is rough.
I mean, we'll see, but I think it's just a bit differently configured than the NY pens of recent years that we've been spoiled by. Nelson looks great (5 scoreless in 3 outings so far), Loaisiga could lock in at any time, the back four are all very proven, and Britton should be back for the final 2/3 of the season or so, around the time Severino is supposed to be back too.

Also don't underestimate the impact of Blake being settled in. When he was interviewed during the game the other day, he was saying that because of Covid last year, they never really got to fully implement what they wanted to, but this year they've been able to.

FWIW, even after Britton's injury, Fangraphs has NY's bullpen as easily the strongest in MLB.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP
 

Murderer's Crow

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I mean, we'll see, but I think it's just a bit differently configured than the NY pens of recent years that we've been spoiled by. Nelson looks great (5 scoreless in 3 outings so far), Loaisiga could lock in at any time, the back four are all very proven, and Britton should be back for the final 2/3 of the season or so, around the time Severino is supposed to be back too.

Also don't underestimate the impact of Blake being settled in. When he was interviewed during the game the other day, he was saying that because of Covid last year, they never really got to fully implement what they wanted to, but this year they've been able to.

FWIW, even after Britton's injury, Fangraphs has NY's bullpen as easily the strongest in MLB.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP
It relies very heavily on Green who occasionally falls apart for 3 months at a time and Chapman, who only gets used in close situations. If you don't have Green at his best, Boone better have gotten a warranty on that pacemaker.

edit: and yes, I acknowledge and accept a new-look bullpen with lots of potential. I just don't have that trust or comfort level with any of the filler-inning guys yet.
 

jon abbey

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Green had one dud month in three seasons from 2017-2019, April 2019 when they sent him down to fix things. He came back and was awesome, 2.64 ERA after that. He had a few bad games last year but still only gave up 13 hits all season, in 25.2 innings.
 

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I think O'Day, Wilson and Green will stabilize the bullpen quite a lot and they'll manage ok without Britton for a while.
 

jon abbey

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If you don't have Green at his best, Boone better have gotten a warranty on that pacemaker.
Also I want to acknowledge that this is a good line. :)

The thing that helps my comfort level is the overall pitching depth on the 40 man. If the top four SPs stay healthy, that only leaves one spot for German/Deivi/Severino eventually, so we could see those guys helping out in the pen too.
 

jon abbey

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jon abbey

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If NY had more payroll wiggle room under $210M, Shane Greene and David Robertson are still both out there, but they don't and they have a bunch of guys already in camp who were waiting for their chance. Kyle Barraclough is another one who moves up a notch, he has 5 Ks in 3 innings so far this spring.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/barraky01.shtml
 

jon abbey

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Getting down to the wire for Opening Day decisions, NY needs to add Bruce to the 26 man (maybe Dietrich too?) today or offer him (them?) to the other teams if they want to add them to their 26 man roster. NY needs to choose two of Bruce/Dietrich/Tauchman/Wade for the final two bench spots, let's run down their cases a bit.

Bruce (1B, LF, RF): NY's infield will be really thin if they pick Tauchman/Wade, that would give them 6 outfielders (none of whom can play infield), 2 catchers and 5 infielders, so Wade is essentially the backup for all four infield positions. Bruce would give them a lefty power hitter off the bench, he is supposedly great in the clubhouse, but he has fizzled this spring after a great first few games (possibly meaningless).

Dietrich (2B, LF, 3B, 1B): Dietrich has experience playing all four of those positions, but he is bad at all of them except 1B. He would give NY some positional flexibility, his lefty power would also translate nicely in NY (84 career HRs in 2191 ABs). He has also not hit much this spring, although as usual he has been hit by pitches a handful of times (he is easily the MLB leader at this odd skill).

Tauchman (LF, CF, RF): Tauchman was acquired by NY in spring 2019 from COL and with all the injuries, he ended up getting a chance and he was spectacular, piling up 3.8 bWAR in just 296 PAs. Last year both his offense and defense regressed, which is now being blamed on a shoulder injury he was trying to play through. Whether it was that or just poor play, he literally could not hit a FB down the middle all season, it was ugly. He has a .960 OPS in 29 PAs this spring, 3 HRs.

Wade: (everywhere except C/P): Wade has been groomed to be a Zobrist/Holt-type utility player. He is good defensively (and is the only player of the four who can backup SS, otherwise Urshela is the backup SS in addition to the starting 3B), but hasn't hit at all in his sporadic chances (346 PAs over four seasons). He also is the only one of these four with options remaining.

I am going to guess that as of now they go with Bruce and Wade, trade Tauchman, and hope Dietrich isn't picked up by someone else so they can keep him on the taxi squad.

LeMahieu 2B
Judge RF
Hicks CF
Stanton DH
Voit 1B
Torres SS
Frazier LF
Urshela 3B
Sanchez C

Bench:

Higashioka
Wade
Bruce
Gardner

Cole
Kluber
Taillon
Montgomery
German

King
Nelson
Loaisiga
Cessa
Luetge
O'Day
Green
Chapman

IL-Severino, Britton, Wilson