Super Wildcard Weekend Gamethread

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
My shorthand understanding is "more better chance to win vs only slightly less chance of tie." Someone better versed might help.
50% chance you make it. In that case, a near-automatic XP gives you the lead.

50% chance you miss. In that case, you have to go for 2 next time; 50:50 chance you get it and you end up even to kicking two XPs.

So 50% chance you’re better off, 25%
chance it’s a wash, and 25% chance you’re worse off.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
42,281
AZ
When you take into account the chances of missed extra points and the difficulty of winning in overtime plus the added chance of conversion due to the penalty I think it works. Can’t stop the Bills though so it doesn’t matter.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,241
But why not go for 2 on the next TD for the win? Now they have to get a 2 for a tie.
Assuming a late score, I think because the bad outcome then is you lose, not you need a 2 to tie, like it is now.

Edit: others said it better.
 

Preacher

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 9, 2006
6,411
Pyeongtaek, South Korea
Because by doing it now you have information on whether you'll have to try it again. By going for it in the second time you can't go back in time to erase the XP you kicked and try for 2.
I guess to some extent it also makes sense because you’re giving yourself two tries for a 2 pt conversion (if you don’t get the first one).
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
42,281
AZ
I don’t understand that. An offside doesn’t give you a first down so you used up a time out just for that? Kick and save the time out.
 

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
46,769
Hartford, CT
I don’t understand that. An offside doesn’t give you a first down so you used up a time out just for that? Kick and save the time out.
I think they may have gone for fourth down or you get an easier FGA.

That TO isn’t crucial to BUF, not as crucial as maximizing the odds of that possession ending well.
 

cshea

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
36,047
306, row 14
The Colts have to go fast here because they have no timeouts left. Should be fun to watch Rivers frantically snapping the ball as the play clock winds down
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
61,996
New York City
Indy, to their credit, have not given up in any way. I am impressed.

It's a shame they threw away so many points. They should be winning.