2020 Pats: NE Trade Deadline Thread
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
I make light of the tweet, but let’s not forget that Brady putting his house up for sale was meaningless... until it wasn’t.
I'd expect Thuney to get dealt by Tuesday.
The comp pick everyone is counting on if they just let him walk this offseason is no sure thing.
The Patriots will have money to spend this spring, and not too many guys on the current roster worth spending it on.
I'd guess they'll make at least some kind of splash in free agency, and that splash would very likely cancel out the comp pick they'd get it Thuney leaves.
If they can get a 3rd round pick for him now, I think they'll take it.
The comp pick everyone is counting on if they just let him walk this offseason is no sure thing.
The Patriots will have money to spend this spring, and not too many guys on the current roster worth spending it on.
I'd guess they'll make at least some kind of splash in free agency, and that splash would very likely cancel out the comp pick they'd get it Thuney leaves.
If they can get a 3rd round pick for him now, I think they'll take it.
What is your untradeable list at this point? There are guys I'd have a lot of trouble trading for sentimental / leadership reasons (Slater, the McCourtys, Edelman, White), and guys where the contract means it wouldn't make sense to trade them (maybe just Shaq Mason and Jonathan Jones in this category). But who are the guys who are like, "yes, he's a core piece for the next great Pats team?" Is it just Michael Onwenu? JC Jackson is a pending RFA, Winovich is in the doghouse. Isaiah Wynn maybe? Too soon to give up on the 2020 rookie class, but man, this is a team bereft of young talent.
I'm right there with you. I mean, who would bring back anything worth trading them for?
There isn't a single untradeable guy on my list. Not one. Guys like JC Jackson and Wynn wouldn't be easy to pry but I'll always listen. I think the simple reality is that this team is in pretty big shit in the short term. There is a lot of work to do even if you had your franchise QB in place. Without one, we're in for a multi-year rebuild, IMO. I hope BB has the stomach for it.
Damien Harris has earned a spot on the "core piece" list. So with him and Onwenu, that's two (and hopefully Duggar).
Not a very long list.
IMO, Gilmore and Thuney have value for a contending team.
Maybe a third rounder for either of them? Gilmore is a little older and is likely going to want a new deal. That probably hurts his potential return. Thuney should be in his prime and interior O Lineman age a little better than DBs.
I don’t think you deal any of the rookie class (they need cost controlled young talent, and if a team wants the player then that’s a good sign the Pats shouldn’t trade him), as well as Wynn, White, Jackson, Harris, Andrews, J. Jones, Bailey, and Mason.
There are also players that they’d be stupid to trade because of how low their value is and the chance the player emerges as viable in the future, like Harry or Michel. Why bother?
I don’t know why anyone would deal a guy like Wynn, for example, for a third rounder.He is a starting caliber tackle that fits in their plans, and the odds of hitting on any of the picks you likely get in return are not going to be high.
There are also players that they’d be stupid to trade because of how low their value is and the chance the player emerges as viable in the future, like Harry or Michel. Why bother?
I don’t know why anyone would deal a guy like Wynn, for example, for a third rounder.He is a starting caliber tackle that fits in their plans, and the odds of hitting on any of the picks you likely get in return are not going to be high.
I don't see the Pats trading JC Jackson. Or any of their 2020 draft class. The dividing line probably ends there, but I agree they should be in listening mode on just about any name on their roster right now.
Not to be the MOTO, but everything depends on the return. Just saying you are willing to trade certain players needs a compelling reason to do so. Would I trade Thuney for a 2nd? Probably. For a 4th. NO, I would not. Gilmore for a 2nd? Ok. For a 4th, probably not. Setting the value of anybody the Pats are willing to trade is exactly what BB is doing now. A wholesale shipping out isn't likely to happen. And none of this will make a lot of difference until the QB situation is fixed. I would rather see what members think is the real value of anyone you are willing to trade.
I agree with almost all of this, but if someone wants to give us a 5th or 6th for Michel...sure.
Agreed, but wondering if that is the asking price so that they can settle for a 2nd plus a player, or a 2nd and a 4th, something like that.
No one is really giving them that. Gilmore is under contract for little money in 2021, but I don't think he's playing next year unless he gets a new deal. Maybe I can see someone offering up a first to go all in this year, but that plus a player?
At least teams are calling. That's a start.
Here's the tweet:
View: https://twitter.com/diannaESPN/status/1323607113512456192
Here's the tweet:
View: https://twitter.com/diannaESPN/status/1323607113512456192
It just takes one. If they can swap Gilly + pick to get a 1st rounder, I'd be happy.
Personally, I'd be really sad if Burkhead is traded. I was on board from day 1 and has been one of my favorite players to root for.
This is going to be a rough day.
Theoretically, there could be a team out there that has a young player that is sort of blocked by established players where it would make sense for the Patriots to play for them. Unfortunately, in the NFL, it seems like there is little opportunity for other teams to really see and evaluate those younger players that have some talent, but are far down on the depth chart.
The cap situation looks good until you realize they'll pretty much have to remake the whole team, quarterback included. I don't know if that's the context in which you'd feel comfortable paying a 31 year old Gilmore some real money.
The Pats are doing the right thing; they don't really benefit from giving Gilmore away for a 4th rounder. Start with a high asking price; if they were able to get a first for him, I think most of us here would be pleased. This would not be the worst time to bank some draft picks.
If the trade market for Gilmore is depressed, then the Pats can think about working out an extension, or simply wait for the comp pick.
If the trade market for Gilmore is depressed, then the Pats can think about working out an extension, or simply wait for the comp pick.
I don't know that they'd give up a 1st, but if you;re the Browns, 5-2, trying to make the playoffs for the first time in EIGHTEEN YEARS, and weak against the pass......
you have to consider a 1st and Njoku who you barely play, right?
you have to consider a 1st and Njoku who you barely play, right?
Cleveland has two 3rd-round picks in the next draft. How about Gilmore for a second and a swap of the Pats 4th for a Cleveland 3rd?
Seatlle has no 1st-rounder in the next draft (Jets) to give, so unlikely to surrender the 2022 1st-rounder or the 2021 2nd-rounder.
Seatlle has no 1st-rounder in the next draft (Jets) to give, so unlikely to surrender the 2022 1st-rounder or the 2021 2nd-rounder.
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It's more than that. Njoku was hurt early last year but even after he returned he was a healthy scratch late in the year. He's been dinged up again this year but still isn't playing much on his return ... and of course, they didn't need to acquire Hooper / Bryant.
So he seems like an ideal trade target for BB. They have a desperate need at TE. He's just 24 years of age. His first two seasons he put up this combined line:
88 rec, 1,025 yds, 11.6 y/c, 8 td
The kid can play.
88 rec, 1,025 yds, 11.6 y/c, 8 td
The kid can play.
So basically a 2nd and moving up 10 spots? Doesn't seem like it's worth it. At that point you just keep Gilmore another year then take the comp pick when he leaves.
To me if you aren't getting a 1st you need to be getting a 2nd with either a player you like, another 2nd, or something like a 3rd and 5th for a 6th.
Anything less than that you just keep Gilmore. You can always explore a trade after the season anyway.
A second would be a light haul for Gilmore...but if that's all that's out there, I would still advocate taking it. They need an infusion of young talent, and CB is the one position (maybe OL as well) that they can afford to trade from to improve another unit. At the end of the day, once you know the market, you can't afford to keep Gilmore if the team is going to get better overall in the next year.
Yeah, shouldn't be too hard to find a quality DB in the 2nd round if we need to as well...
(ducks)
Damn ... the second round for the Patriots has been a combination of home runs and .... not home runs. (List published before Duggar)
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/patriots-second-round-draft-picks-under-bill-belichick-run-gamut
Yea the days of swapping with Cleveland and basically jumping a Round (Our 3 for your 3rd......so the pats moved up from 29th in the round to 3rd in the round) Or Not losing many spots (We trade our 3rd, 29th in the round, for clevelands 4th rounder, 3rd in the round) Are over.
Do they still play a lot of zone? Gilmore makes the most the most sense for a team that plays a lot of man coverage IMHO.
I only found this from last year: https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2020/04/17/evaluating-cb-needs-for-teams-that-use-man-zone-the-most/
Seahawks were in zone 66% of the time. Surprised that even though the Patriots ran the most man coverage they were still in zone 46% of the time.
There were 42 picks in the 3rd round (comp picks at the end) in 2020 draft, so it's going to be a bigger move up than 10-12 picks.
I think a fair CLE deal is probabaly something like Gilmore and a 5 for Njoku a 2nd and a conditional 2/3/4 in 2022 based on performance
Honest question, what metric does one use there for Gilmore's performance? It's easy to do for a WR, say, but a CB? Snaps?
Probably same as how you do incentives... awards, % of snaps, etc.
So say Pro-Bowl... 2nd, 65% of snaps or higher gets a 3rd, etc.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/defense_advanced.htm
Based on passer rating against in 2020, here's where NE's CBs rank (this list includes corners, safeties, and linebackers, all whom have been in pass coverage - btw, there are 268 players listed):
JC Jackson - #24 - 29 targets, 18 comp, 252 yds, 62.1%, 1 td, 4 int, 61.9 rating
J Jones - #44 - 39 targets, 21 comp, 53.8%, 264 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 73.0 rating
Gilmore - #46 - 30 targets, 16 comp, 53.3%, 218 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 74.0 rating
J McCourty - #250 - 17 targets, 11 comp, 64.7%, 179 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 139.5 rating
So honestly, the first three guys have been just fine. Very good, in fact. JMac, on the other hand, has been a *disaster* at corner this year. An absolute disaster.
It feels like Gilmore has been bad this year, but that's only because he was otherworldly last year (and btw, in both 2019 and 2020, Jackson has been better).
Based on passer rating against in 2020, here's where NE's CBs rank (this list includes corners, safeties, and linebackers, all whom have been in pass coverage - btw, there are 268 players listed):
JC Jackson - #24 - 29 targets, 18 comp, 252 yds, 62.1%, 1 td, 4 int, 61.9 rating
J Jones - #44 - 39 targets, 21 comp, 53.8%, 264 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 73.0 rating
Gilmore - #46 - 30 targets, 16 comp, 53.3%, 218 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 74.0 rating
J McCourty - #250 - 17 targets, 11 comp, 64.7%, 179 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 139.5 rating
So honestly, the first three guys have been just fine. Very good, in fact. JMac, on the other hand, has been a *disaster* at corner this year. An absolute disaster.
It feels like Gilmore has been bad this year, but that's only because he was otherworldly last year (and btw, in both 2019 and 2020, Jackson has been better).