2019-2020 Celtics Regular Season Thread

HomeRunBaker

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At first I had the same reaction, but I think the point is a bit more subtle. I think the point is that losing a crucial player will mean you don't win a championship. Then, you ask which players are crucial.

On a team with a very top heavy lineup, if one of their top 2 goes down, they're in trouble. But if one of their best 3-5 goes down, maybe they're ok. Whereas the claim is, if any of the Celtics top 4 or 5 go down, they will not win.

Then it's just a numbers game, and the Celtics have a higher chance of losing because they have more tickets.
On a team with a top heavy lineup, if one of their top 2 go down they are in trouble as far as winning a championship goes.
On a team with 3-5 top players they can all remain healthy and your team is in trouble as far as winning a championship goes.

Aside from the Pistons anomaly 15 years ago when was the last time a team with a balanced lineup won a championship? You win championships with a top heavy lineup...….you win 50 games with a balanced lineup.
 

mcpickl

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On a team with a top heavy lineup, if one of their top 2 go down they are in trouble as far as winning a championship goes.
On a team with 3-5 top players they can all remain healthy and your team is in trouble as far as winning a championship goes.

Aside from the Pistons anomaly 15 years ago when was the last time a team with a balanced lineup won a championship? You win championships with a top heavy lineup...….you win 50 games with a balanced lineup.
I think you'd have to go back to the 79 Sonics to find a team outside of the Pistons that didn't have a top 10 player in the league on their team. Even that Pistons team a case could be made Ben Wallace was a top ten player at that time because he was such a monster on defense, He did make 2nd team all-NBA and was the defensive player of the year.
 

RetractableRoof

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I think you'd have to go back to the 79 Sonics to find a team outside of the Pistons that didn't have a top 10 player in the league on their team. Even that Pistons team a case could be made Ben Wallace was a top ten player at that time because he was such a monster on defense, He did make 2nd team all-NBA and was the defensive player of the year.
I was going to offer up the 2014 Spurs, but Parker was 31 and playing well, and Duncan was Duncan still. And Leonard was on the verge of becoming Kawhi. The team didn't play a star game though, they beat the Heat the very way the Cs want to be playing.
 

benhogan

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I was going to offer up the 2014 Spurs, but Parker was 31 and playing well, and Duncan was Duncan still. And Leonard was on the verge of becoming Kawhi. The team didn't play a star game though, they beat the Heat the very way the Cs want to be playing.
Not bad, since Pistons is usually the default for no Star level players

Off Rtg: 110.5 (7th of 30) Def Rtg: 102.4 (3rd of 30)

Top 3 scorers:
Parker 16.7ppg
Duncan 15.1ppg
Kawhi 12.8ppg

3pt snipers: Danny Green, Belinelli, Patty Mills

Parker, the only All-Star reserve. Very deep, veteran-laden team.
Pop had a burgeoning rookie big man on the bench ;)

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2014.html
 
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chilidawg

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Not bad, since Pistons is usually the default for no Star level players

Off Rtg: 110.5 (7th of 30) Def Rtg: 102.4 (3rd of 30)

Top 3 scorers:
Parker 16.7ppg
Duncan 15.1ppg
Kawhi 12.8ppg

3pt snipers: Danny Green, Belinelli, Patty Mills

Parker, the only All-Star reserve. Very deep, veteran-laden team.
Pop had a burgeoning rookie big man on the bench ;)

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2014.html
Their point distribution looks a lot like the 60 win Hawks who flamed out in the playoffs a few years ago. Lesson learned: Who the fuck knows?
 

nighthob

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Their point distribution looks a lot like the 60 win Hawks who flamed out in the playoffs a few years ago. Lesson learned: Who the fuck knows?
If Boston lost to the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals this year, no one would consider it a “flame out”. And the 2020 Bucks don’t really have anyone the likes of Playoff LeBron terrorizing the NBA (not to mention that the 2015 Cavs had two other guys better than any Buck not named Antetokounmpo).
 

lovegtm

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I was going to offer up the 2014 Spurs, but Parker was 31 and playing well, and Duncan was Duncan still. And Leonard was on the verge of becoming Kawhi. The team didn't play a star game though, they beat the Heat the very way the Cs want to be playing.
Yeah, the 2012-2014 Spurs really should be the go-to comp for this kind of team rather than the 2004 Pistons. Their run was longer (nearly made the Finals in 2012 and should have won in 2013), and Duncan, while very good, was definitely no longer DUNCAN!

A big difference between them and a team like the Celtics is, as benhogan notes, that they were mostly vets, especially off the bench.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, the 2012-2014 Spurs really should be the go-to comp for this kind of team rather than the 2004 Pistons. Their run was longer (nearly made the Finals in 2012 and should have won in 2013), and Duncan, while very good, was definitely no longer DUNCAN!

A big difference between them and a team like the Celtics is, as benhogan notes, that they were mostly vets, especially off the bench.
Hey to each their own but I refer to the Pistons because they had one All-Star who was an undrafted free agent with a PG who was on his 6th team and a couple other good NBA players. That 2013 Spurs teams had 3 HOFers.....Parker was still a star and Duncan, while not the Duncan of his mid-20's was still an All-Star level player putting up big numbers in fewer minutes than he had in the past. It wasn't like they were Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince.
 

lovegtm

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Hey to each their own but I refer to the Pistons because they had one All-Star who was an undrafted free agent with a PG who was on his 6th team and a couple other good NBA players. That 2013 Spurs teams had 3 HOFers.....Parker was still a star and Duncan, while not the Duncan of his mid-20's was still an All-Star level player putting up big numbers in fewer minutes than he had in the past. It wasn't like they were Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince.
Yeah, I mean I agree that the Pistons are by far the "lowest end" of a champion.

However, the question people are always implicitly asking is "can you win a title without a top-5 player, or multiple top-10s?" While the Spurs had 3 HOFers, only one of them (Parker) was still (maybe) a top-10 player, and so they're still relevant because of how well they played against some really elite talent.

If the question is "are the Celtics similar to the 2014 Spurs?" the answer is "no", but I do think there's more of a chance to see a team without as much top-X talent win in this post-GSW phase.
 

chilidawg

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If Boston lost to the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals this year, no one would consider it a “flame out”. And the 2020 Bucks don’t really have anyone the likes of Playoff LeBron terrorizing the NBA (not to mention that the 2015 Cavs had two other guys better than any Buck not named Antetokounmpo).
I'm not sure I get your point. I was referring to the Spurs point distribution, not the Celtics. Point being that there are alternate paths to winning besides the "3 stars" formula repeatedly drilled into our heads by Reggie Miller.
 

benhogan

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Yeah, the 2012-2014 Spurs really should be the go-to comp for this kind of team rather than the 2004 Pistons. Their run was longer (nearly made the Finals in 2012 and should have won in 2013), and Duncan, while very good, was definitely no longer DUNCAN!

A big difference between them and a team like the Celtics is, as benhogan notes, that they were mostly vets, especially off the bench.
Agreed. The Spurs model is more relevant since their style of play resembles the modern game much more than the Pistons style.

While I've banged the drum for a 3rd bench BIG (due to cheapness, availability & injury insurance). Maybe a veteran, bench 3pt sniper is the better target for the Celtics? Wonder if Kyrie, the GM, will put Joe Harris on the block if they continue to fade?

It's starting feel like Danny will sit tight, see how the Hayward situation plays out and address the roster this summer. A BIG3 of Kemba + leapin' Jay's will be a fantastic core for 2021 Championship aspirations and beyond.
 

nighthob

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I'm not sure I get your point. I was referring to the Spurs point distribution, not the Celtics. Point being that there are alternate paths to winning besides the "3 stars" formula repeatedly drilled into our heads by Reggie Miller.
You referred to the Hawks loss to LeBron as a “flame out”. I was pointing out that if Boston made the ECF and lost to the Bucks no one would call that a “flame out”. There was no shame in losing to the LeBronimator.
 

lovegtm

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You referred to the Hawks loss to LeBron as a “flame out”. I was pointing out that if Boston made the ECF and lost to the Bucks no one would call that a “flame out”. There was no shame in losing to the LeBronimator.
The particular way in which they lost was pretty disappointing after how good their regular season was. It's one thing to lose to LeBron, but we've seen a lot of other teams (old and young Celtics included) put up way more credible fights than that.
 

nighthob

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He was in full Oscar Robertson mode that postseason. That team carved through everyone until LeBron ran out of teammates in the finals. Had Irving and Love not gotten injured they probably would have won another ‘chip.
 

lovegtm

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He was in full Oscar Robertson mode that postseason. That team carved through everyone until LeBron ran out of teammates in the finals. Had Irving and Love not gotten injured they probably would have won another ‘chip.
All true. He also didn't have Love for that series, the Hawks were a 60 win team, and plenty of other good teams have given prime LeBron a run for his money before. Getting swept in that scenario is pretty bad, and definitely worthy of the flameout label.
 

nighthob

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Yeah, sorry, no team whose third best player is Jeff Teague can be considered a “flame out” for making a conference finals. That’d be like referring to the ‘17 Celtics as a flame out for getting curbstomped by LeBron in the ECF (and they had a player better than anyone not name Al on that ‘15 Hawks squad). The miracle was that the Hawks won 60 games and got there in the first place.
 

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chilidawg

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Yeah, sorry, no team whose third best player is Jeff Teague can be considered a “flame out” for making a conference finals. That’d be like referring to the ‘17 Celtics as a flame out for getting curbstomped by LeBron in the ECF (and they had a player better than anyone not name Al on that ‘15 Hawks squad). The miracle was that the Hawks won 60 games and got there in the first place.
My flameout remark was based more on that team being used repeatedly as an example of why starless teams don't win, rather than my personal view of them. They were also a team that was fading toward the end of the year, losing 10 of their last 20.
 

lovegtm

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I went back and watched the 2nd quarter, and here's a nice encapsulation of what they did well during that 23-0 (and eventually 52-12) run that they've done poorly a lot in their recent slump (Click for full-size).







Morant runs a PnR, and Smart sinks into the lane to tag the big. Morant reads it, and it looks like he'll correctly beat Smart with the pass for the corner 3. Instead, Hayward Xs out and runs the shooter off the line, while Smart both recovers to Crowder and digs on the drive.

There were a lot of examples of this, where guys consistently recovered to the correct shooters on the weak side after zoning it up. It was impressive, not easy to execute that consistently, and completely necessary for their defensive scheme to succeed.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I went back and watched the 2nd quarter, and here's a nice encapsulation of what they did well during that 23-0 (and eventually 52-12) run that they've done poorly a lot in their recent slump (Click for full-size).







Morant runs a PnR, and Smart sinks into the lane to tag the big. Morant reads it, and it looks like he'll correctly beat Smart with the pass for the corner 3. Instead, Hayward Xs out and runs the shooter off the line, while Smart both recovers to Crowder and digs on the drive.

There were a lot of examples of this, where guys consistently recovered to the correct shooters on the weak side after zoning it up. It was impressive, not easy to execute that consistently, and completely necessary for their defensive scheme to succeed.
Haven't seen the game yet but I want to point out that in the second picture, it looks like if the 3P shooter gets the pass in his shooting pocket, he'll have an open shot to hit.

Not saying that GH or MS didn't play it correctly just that good defense is oftentimes dependent on the other team not executing well or just by missing shots. That's a testament to how good NBA players are.
 

lovegtm

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Haven't seen the game yet but I want to point out that in the second picture, it looks like if the 3P shooter gets the pass in his shooting pocket, he'll have an open shot to hit.

Not saying that GH or MS didn't play it correctly just that good defense is oftentimes dependent on the other team not executing well or just by missing shots. That's a testament to how good NBA players are.
Definitely: a perfect pass beats that D, but it's hard to make that pass through an arm-thicket from cross-court. It's all about reducing the equity of the shot: harder pass, close out as best you can, hope for a miss when the pass is perfect. They haven't reduced all parts of the shot equity enough in the losing streak: they were mostly just relying on the miss %.
 

benhogan

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I went back and watched the 2nd quarter, and here's a nice encapsulation of what they did well during that 23-0 (and eventually 52-12) run that they've done poorly a lot in their recent slump (Click for full-size).







Morant runs a PnR, and Smart sinks into the lane to tag the big. Morant reads it, and it looks like he'll correctly beat Smart with the pass for the corner 3. Instead, Hayward Xs out and runs the shooter off the line, while Smart both recovers to Crowder and digs on the drive.

There were a lot of examples of this, where guys consistently recovered to the correct shooters on the weak side after zoning it up. It was impressive, not easy to execute that consistently, and completely necessary for their defensive scheme to succeed.
That's a good example. It starts with the on-ball defense, pressuring the ball on the perimeter, then helping and rotating out of the match-up/zone. It sounds like the film session after the Phoenix game where the players, for the 1st time, critiqued their own defense was effective.

So while 90% of the media commentary is about the most offensively skilled player, who should get PT based on spacing or who should get shots based on TS%, it's almost superfluous. Move the ball on offense, don't turn it over, take the highest % shot and they'll be fine. The Celtics will win or lose according to their effort/skill in employing Brad's defensive schemes. They had laughers the last two games because of their 2nd/3rd quarter team defense. and Jayson Tatum is the Celtics' MVP and most efficient player because of his defense.
 

lovegtm

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That's a good example. It starts with the on-ball defense, pressuring the ball on the perimeter, then helping and rotating out of the match-up/zone. It sounds like the film session after the Phoenix game where the players, for the 1st time, critiqued their own defense was effective.

So while 90% of the media commentary is about the most offensively skilled player, who should get PT based on spacing or who should get shots based on TS%, it's almost superfluous. Move the ball on offense, don't turn it over, take the highest % shot and they'll be fine. The Celtics will win or lose according to their effort/skill in employing Brad's defensive schemes. They had laughers the last two games because of their 2nd/3rd quarter team defense. and Jayson Tatum is the Celtics' MVP and most efficient player because of his defense.
Defense makes offense easier too. Obviously you get the transition buckets, but it’s also hard mentally for opponents to execute their own schemes when they can’t buy a bucket the other way.
 

joe dokes

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That's a good example. It starts with the on-ball defense, pressuring the ball on the perimeter, then helping and rotating out of the match-up/zone. It sounds like the film session after the Phoenix game where the players, for the 1st time, critiqued their own defense was effective.

So while 90% of the media commentary is about the most offensively skilled player, who should get PT based on spacing or who should get shots based on TS%, it's almost superfluous. Move the ball on offense, don't turn it over, take the highest % shot and they'll be fine. The Celtics will win or lose according to their effort/skill in employing Brad's defensive schemes. They had laughers the last two games because of their 2nd/3rd quarter team defense. and Jayson Tatum is the Celtics' MVP and most efficient player because of his defense.
And that, at least in the short term, and to the extent the players can be believed, goes back to their self-critical film session earlier in the week.
I'd like to think that the ability to self-correct is the mark of a solid team that will only get better. "I'm doing what I can and trying to help the other guys get better" is not the answer. It's like Tommy said toward the end of the game. It's the best players (like Cousy) asking the rest of the team, "how can I get better?" not "how can I make you better?"
 

DJnVa

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I went back and watched the 2nd quarter, and here's a nice encapsulation of what they did well during that 23-0 (and eventually 52-12) run that they've done poorly a lot in their recent slump (Click for full-size).
I like to call it a 64-21 run!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ewing Theory being put to the test tonight! Orlando -1 most everywhere with a Pk and even a Celtics -1 out there.
 

TripleOT

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I remember a dozen or so years ago, when Leon Powe finally got a chance in Florida with KG hurt, and he had a monster game against the Heat. Tonight, Javonte Green needs to show out in Florida, with the two Jays out.
 

lovegtm

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Ewing Theory being put to the test tonight! Orlando -1 most everywhere with a Pk and even a Celtics -1 out there.
I think this is more likely to end up as a LeBron Theory game (your team just gets worse without him and everyone is sad), but I suppose Kemba could go off.
 

Jimbodandy

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Haywould, Green, and Langford as wings should be fun to watch. Hope VP and Tacko get some minutes too.

Of course CBS (whom I love) will disappoint me again and play both Theis and Semi 35 minutes.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Haywould, Green, and Langford as wings should be fun to watch. Hope VP and Tacko get some minutes too.

Of course CBS (whom I love) will disappoint me again and play both Theis and Semi 35 minutes.
Langford is still assigned to Maine, at least as of this morning when they recalled Tacko. Seems like a great opportunity to get him some playing time, but Brad doesn’t seem as accommodating for whatever reason.
 

lovegtm

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Haywould, Green, and Langford as wings should be fun to watch. Hope VP and Tacko get some minutes too.

Of course CBS (whom I love) will disappoint me again and play both Theis and Semi 35 minutes.
Get used to disappointment: pretty sure Langford was not recalled from Maine for this game.
 

Jimbodandy

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Hadn't been tracking where the shuttle bus guys are lately. Didn't see him on the bench, now that you both mention it.

I'm already used to disappointment on the prospect front, since I fully expect a steady diet of Theis and Semi. Bit worried about Theis wearing down to a nub though. And do not get why Romeo doesn't see the court at wing more. He seems bought in on the defensive end, so I doubt it's that.
 

TripleOT

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How great would it be for Tacko to have a good game in real minutes in the city where he played college ball?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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And do not get why Romeo doesn't see the court at wing more. He seems bought in on the defensive end, so I doubt it's that.
As someone pointed out, Maine doesn't have a game until Friday (last game was Sunday) so my guess is that they are practicing hard and Brad/DA figure that Romeo going through multiple practices to help learn BOS's defensive system is good for him.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think this is more likely to end up as a LeBron Theory game (your team just gets worse without him and everyone is sad), but I suppose Kemba could go off.
The team is definitely “worse”.....the theory combines players stepping up when opportunity presents itself along with opponent playing down/not preparing properly due to the game theoretically being a cakewalk.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Haywould, Green, and Langford as wings should be fun to watch. Hope VP and Tacko get some minutes too.

Of course CBS (whom I love) will disappoint me again and play both Theis and Semi 35 minutes.
Tonight’s recall is matchup specific though. We have plenty of guys who can do what Langford does on the floor. We don’t have long second unit depth to matchup with Bamba and Birch in spot minutes.