Four first round picks for... Justise Winslow?? (Ainge's drafting record)

Kliq

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Any criticism for not taking Giannis is ridiculous. I used to play pick up with Mike Zarren and asked him once about that draft and he said that they didn't expect Giannis to be good, nobody did, and if they tell you that they did they are lying. They thought Kelly was a good fit for the team and were happy with what he did while he was in Boston.

Giannis was playing second division basketball in Greece, and there was little footage on him playing. He was the rawest of raw prospects and those are the kinds of talent that end up being lottery steals; it is either those guys or upper classmen who are unfairly evaluated because they are older. Giannis turning into GIANNIS is unprecedented in this day and age, he is the latest drafted league MVP since Willis Reed (not counting Moses Malone, who wasn't drafted). He is the ultimate lottery ticket and should not be as a standard for anything.
 

moondog80

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Any criticism for not taking Giannis is ridiculous. I used to play pick up with Mike Zarren and asked him once about that draft and he said that they didn't expect Giannis to be good, nobody did, and if they tell you that they did they are lying. They thought Kelly was a good fit for the team and were happy with what he did while he was in Boston.

Giannis was playing second division basketball in Greece, and there was little footage on him playing. He was the rawest of raw prospects and those are the kinds of talent that end up being lottery steals; it is either those guys or upper classmen who are unfairly evaluated because they are older. Giannis turning into GIANNIS is unprecedented in this day and age, he is the latest drafted league MVP since Willis Reed (not counting Moses Malone, who wasn't drafted). He is the ultimate lottery ticket and should not be as a standard for anything.
I believe a big part of Giannis' development is that he has grown 2 inches since being drafted. So yes, it was blind luck.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ainge had the #1 pick in the Tatum draft. If you can't give the guy credit for taking the best player from the draft and getting an additional pick out of it, I don't think that anything that Ainge does will ever please you. Luck had nothing to do with it.
Exactly. It seems negligent to me for anyone to take this process with millions of dollars invested and call it potluck on who you select. Let’s not forget that this isn’t one GM playing against the market.....it is one GM competing with a number of factors in determining who he selects. To say that flipping a coin or picking a ping pong ball out of a bin is equivalent to a GM making a calculated decision versus other GMs is ignorant from where I sit.

And yes, I still blame Ainge for drafting Olynyk over Gobert after we saw the latter at the Combine running the floor like a gazelle, altering shots, moving his feet on defense and playing with a high level of competitiveness and intensity. Pit remains in stomach.

Edit: I wasn’t high on Giannis for the reasons some other stated but regardless the last thing the Celtics needed to help rebuild was a low ceiling 2nd unit player.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The Jaylen Brown pick wasn't very popular at the time. Wasn't Kris Dunn the guy most people wanted? IIRC, quite a few people had a list of players they wanted and Jaylen Brown was a player they would have been specifically disappointed in if drafted.

It's worked out well. I don't know if Ainge is a great drafter, but as others have noted, he's hit the picks that mattered.
 

moondog80

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Edit: I wasn’t high on Giannis for the reasons some other stated but regardless the last thing the Celtics needed to help rebuild was a low ceiling 2nd unit player.
Meh. Teams passed on Gobert 26 times, then the Nuggets sold the pick to Utah for the 46th pick and cash. Regardless of how it turned out, picking Gobert at 13 would have a malpractice-level overpay.
 

Big John

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Yeah, Siakam is the only guy drafted behind Brown that is clearly better than him (and even then, Siakam is 2.5 years older than Brown and a lot closer to being a finished product at this point). There are a few other guys in a similar class (Murray, Sabonis, Brogdon, Hield) but of those, Brown is either far younger (Brogdon/Hield are both 27 to Brown's 23), or a better two way player at a more important position (Murray/Sabonis).
I would take Sabonis ahead of Siakam, but that's just me. If redrafting 2016, I would flip a coin between Brown and Sabonis,and I would take either one of them ahead of Ingram.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I would take Sabonis ahead of Siakam, but that's just me. If redrafting 2016, I would flip a coin between Brown and Sabonis,and I would take either one of them ahead of Ingram.
Why? Because of Siakam's age? For a draft that was supposed to be basically just Ben Simmons and to a lesser extend Brandon Ingram... it's a pretty great draft class.

I think I'd take all 3 of those guys over Simmons. Sabonis, Brown and Siakam, that is.
 

Big John

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2016 is a curious class. Bender, Dunn, Chriss, Maker, Pappagiannis, Hernangomez and Yabusele, all taken top 16, were mostly busts, while three of the best players turned out to be Siakam (#27), Murray (#29) and Brogdon (#36).

Yes, my problem with Siakam was age, plus he was very raw. He didn't come around until his third year.
 

Cesar Crespo

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2016 is a curious class. Bender, Dunn, Chriss, Maker, Pappagiannis, Hernangomez and Yabusele, all taken top 16, were mostly busts, while three of the best players turned out to be Siakam (#27), Murray (#29) and Brogdon (#36).

Yes, my problem with Siakam was age, plus he was very raw. He didn't come around until his third year.
Was. Not sure why it would matter in an after the fact redraft.

Honestly, I think between Simmons, Brown, Siakam, Sabonis and Ingram, it's basically a pick your flavor. I could see arguments for all of them. I know people don't like Ingram but he has the tools to be a good defender. Whether the effort is there remains to be seen.
 

Big John

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Was. Not sure why it would matter in an after the fact redraft.
Yes, that's a fair point, but Siakam's game still has holes in it, namely his handle and his mid range skills, which come in handy once in awhile. His defense is excellent, though.
 

snowmanny

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Any criticism for not taking Giannis is ridiculous. I used to play pick up with Mike Zarren and asked him once about that draft and he said that they didn't expect Giannis to be good, nobody did, and if they tell you that they did they are lying.
FWIW Bill Polian had Giannis ranked #1on his big board
 

bowiac

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Meh. Teams passed on Gobert 26 times, then the Nuggets sold the pick to Utah for the 46th pick and cash. Regardless of how it turned out, picking Gobert at 13 would have a malpractice-level overpay.
FWIW, unlike Giannis, I did see draft rankings which had Gobert ranked as like a top 10 pick at the time. Not my rankings to be clear - I have terrible draft instincts, but there was a school of thought out there that Gobert badly underdrafted.
 

benhogan

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I would take Sabonis ahead of Siakam, but that's just me. If redrafting 2016, I would flip a coin between Brown and Sabonis,and I would take either one of them ahead of Ingram.
I'm a huge Sabonis fan, his jump every year has been large. I have him ahead of Ingram but behind Siakam and Brown (more due to position)
 

Devizier

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Bk-Ref has, in that draft, that Jaylen Brown is ranked 7th by WS, 15th by WS/48, 14th by BPM and 12th by VORP. Simmons ranks first in 3 of the 4, though he obviously wasn't available at #3. But other top picks including Sabonis, Jamal Murray, Poltl and Buddy Hield all rank above him in terms of results.
Hield is the probably the only guy on that list that probably holds as much value as Brown around the league. It's not just about the first five years, it's projection going forward. I liked Murray at draft time and he has some great offensive skills but he has stalled out and his defense is just terrible. Siakam is of course better than all of those guys but no one had him that high.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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People forget that advanced stats loved KO. For example:

Olynyk's 2013 offensive-post dominance was special. Easily the best among prospects in the past three seasons (the time period I have shot-location data for). He scored 16.8 points at the rim per 40. The next best was Cody Zeller in 2012 who scored 13.3. Nobody else was even close. Olynyk's 73% efficiency at the rim implies that he could have comfortably increased his volume even more. Olynyk's scoring game does not stop there though. He also took 5.3 mid-range shots per game and hit them at an impressive 53% clip. Jeremy Lamb, Mike Scott, Kevin Murphy, and Marcus Morris were the only other players with comparable mid-range success. Olynyk is a gifted scorer in the paint or from the elbow and even hinted at the ability to stretch to the three-point line. Combine that with his solid passing and he has the potential to be a team's primary offensive threat.
The most disappointing thing about KO was his outside shooting. I figured he'd be a high volume, 40% 3P shooter. He shot 40.5% on 3.0 attempts per game in 2015-16 (and is shooting better than that on 3.4 attempts per game in this year) but at least up until last year he never really became the shooter many people thought he was going to be.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Tatum over Fultz was a grand stroke. It's certainly possible that he just got lucky. But, whether it was luck or skill, that was a great move when I think every single talking head / draft expert had Fultz ahead of Tatum.

It's waaaay too early, but I'm a bit disappointed with how Grant Williams has developed. I thought he'd have more of an offensive game and I thought he'd play more of a role given how thin the Celtics are at the 4-5.
He said at time he believed he’d get same guy at 3 he wanted at 1. I believe after Fultz’ visit he was taking Tatum even at 1. And he was right about that. If the Brain Doctor is still in the picture we may have him to thank for skipping Fultz
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Haven't all sports organizations tried to add various layers of assessment to their drafting process? I recall some organization (my memory isn't helping at the moment) adding a former military expert whose specialty was determining if a soldier was likely to be a successful candidate for special forces duty, etc. He was attempting to adapt the methodology to drafting. I never saw a followup or assessment of his assessment.

I will say in general, that we've all heard that with generational level exceptions the difference in physical abilities between the really successful professional athletes and the lesser successful professional athletes is really quite small. So if the difference in physical skills between say Fultz, Ball, and Tatum isn't that different (and a team doesn't have a positional need), the choice has to come down to what's between the ears or beneath the breast plate. I don't know how Ainge dodged the Fultz bullet, but I'm grateful that he was able to do so. I mentioned Gerald Green previously - was he much different than Vince Carter in terms of athletic gifts? And yet he took a many year winding journey to even figure out how to get on the floor as a contributing piece and Carter is still shuffling his walker over to the scorers table to check in once or twice a month at 40+ years old.

It's a weird task evaluating a persons mental strength/discipline or their desire. One athlete is hardened by his upbringing and brings an unrelenting drive with him during his career - it's a positive motivating force. Another player from the same environment, with a similar story gets the first contract and sees his goal accomplished and doesn't burn any further. How do you tell A from B? I think that is part of why BB is successful in his team building, he turns over every rock he can to determine if the person has the sport IQ to learn, the character to be self disciplined (obvious exceptions apply), and the passion for the game to all combine into a successful player that can be coached to be part of the system. Ainge has to find his own perfect mix of a player, and then because only 5 can be on the floor at the same time - he's still handicapped if draft position doesn't bless him with the chance to get the franchise athlete.

I haven't added much to the answer, but it's a wicked domain to try to be successful in. If I were a GM, I would invest every dollar, turn over every rock I could with respect to development of the players (Chip Kelly style - nutrition, sleep, training, hyperbaric chambers, grafting zombie parts onto their anatomy - whatever it takes). I'd then make a pattern of drafting the athletes with a passion for the game and hope that carried the day. And I'd rent instead of buying because it is a wicked domain... lol
Wicked domain indeed. That is perfect.

And this discussion interests me far more than rehashing Ainge's drafting/acquisition record.

I will just say that even with better data - and it has to be a given that colleges and professional organizations don't just have tremendous amounts of data around five star recruit types, AAU stars etc but also a wealth of information about personal histories, family dynamics, grades etc. My guess is that the forward ones have been compiling this information for a few decades now. Even with that, you have well run teams who whiff on high draft picks and get lucky with lower ones.

Its an imperfect science and even with even more information, its almost impossible to predict development with a high degree of confidence. How do you plan for a blue chip player developing an anxiety related disorder when it hasn't manifested itself all during their youth career? What about drugs or drinking or poor nutrition? Or a toxic partner? I know teams do research and look at players who are "about the life" but we have plenty of examples of guys like that who get derailed.

Wicked domain...
 

InstaFace

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He said at time he believed he’d get same guy at 3 he wanted at 1. I believe after Fultz’ visit he was taking Tatum even at 1. And he was right about that. If the Brain Doctor is still in the picture we may have him to thank for skipping Fultz
I don't think he said that in advance of the draft, but I remember right after the draft, he kinda slyly told someone that his team got the guy at #3 that they would have drafted at #1. I just remain shocked he admitted it, since it won't help him in future trade discussions that involve picks.
 

lexrageorge

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I don't think he said that in advance of the draft, but I remember right after the draft, he kinda slyly told someone that his team got the guy at #3 that they would have drafted at #1. I just remain shocked he admitted it, since it won't help him in future trade discussions that involve picks.
Not really. If Ainge has a pick or other asset the other team wants, he will get offers. All GM's know their brethren GM's in other franchises have their own set of rankings and players that they are targeting. Ainge had no issues with trading with Milwaukee and Philly this past draft.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Meh. Teams passed on Gobert 26 times, then the Nuggets sold the pick to Utah for the 46th pick and cash. Regardless of how it turned out, picking Gobert at 13 would have a malpractice-level overpay.
For whatever reason Gobert freefalled on draft night. Nobody ever thought he would still be on the board deep into the 20’s.
 

bowiac

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People forget that advanced stats loved KO. For example:

Olynyk's 2013 offensive-post dominance was special. Easily the best among prospects in the past three seasons (the time period I have shot-location data for). He scored 16.8 points at the rim per 40. The next best was Cody Zeller in 2012 who scored 13.3. Nobody else was even close. Olynyk's 73% efficiency at the rim implies that he could have comfortably increased his volume even more. Olynyk's scoring game does not stop there though. He also took 5.3 mid-range shots per game and hit them at an impressive 53% clip. Jeremy Lamb, Mike Scott, Kevin Murphy, and Marcus Morris were the only other players with comparable mid-range success. Olynyk is a gifted scorer in the paint or from the elbow and even hinted at the ability to stretch to the three-point line. Combine that with his solid passing and he has the potential to be a team's primary offensive threat.
The most disappointing thing about KO was his outside shooting. I figured he'd be a high volume, 40% 3P shooter. He shot 40.5% on 3.0 attempts per game in 2015-16 (and is shooting better than that on 3.4 attempts per game in this year) but at least up until last year he never really became the shooter many people thought he was going to be.
Yeah - I know Olynyk has become the quintissential "low ceiling" guy by dint of being drafted before Giannis, and while there's some truth to that, I think it's also a bit overblown. Just as Giannis represents a top 2% outcome for that pick, the top 2% outcomes for Kelly Olynyk are likewise phenomenal as a floor spacing scorer and passer with excellent defensive positioning in a league where help defense is more and more important. Upside Olynyk isn't an MVP unlike Giannis, so there's some truth to the upside point, but he's...Nikola Jokic (better shooting, worse passing, but same concept - apologies for white/white player comparison), which isn't especially low upside either.
 

moondog80

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For whatever reason Gobert freefalled on draft night. Nobody ever thought he would still be on the board deep into the 20’s.
First 3 mock drafts I could find from semi-credible sources had him at 23, 24, and 26. So he went a tiny bit lower (27th) than expected.
 

Big John

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In my view that's an imaginary construct of a player Olynyk wasn't. When you watched the film of his play at Gonzaga, you saw a soft, relatively unathletic 7-footer who got pushed around on the glass. His positives were ball handling and passing, since he was a point guard who had a late growth spurt. Watching that film, I would never in a million years have thought that his upside was Jokic. He looked to me like the next Andrea Bargnani with a better handle, or maybe a softer version of Brad Miller. I will apologize too for the white/white comparisons, but there you have it.
 

lovegtm

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In my view that's an imaginary construct of a player Olynyk wasn't. When you watched the film of his play at Gonzaga, you saw a soft, relatively unathletic 7-footer who got pushed around on the glass. His positives were ball handling and passing, since he was a point guard who had a late growth spurt. Watching that film, I would never in a million years have thought that his upside was Jokic. He looked to me like the next Andrea Bargnani with a better handle, or maybe a softer version of Brad Miller. I will apologize too for the white/white comparisons, but there you have it.
If you watched Jokic pre-draft, you would never have thought in a million years that his upside was Jokic.
 

Kliq

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People who said Kelly Olynyk wasn't athletic probably never watched him play. For a seven footer he was very agile and quick, which allowed him to thrive as a help defender in Boston, and he got off the floor quickly for a guy that size. He was/is one of the more athletic true seven footers in the league; there is more to athleticism than vertical leaping ability.
 

the moops

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On the Bob Myers point, those guys were assembled under Jerry West, and since West left the organization, they've mostly done nothing with the draft. But more broadly, I would caution against overindexing on draft success with built around three players. You can build a dynasty with three players, but it's still just a very small sample size as far as drafting skill goes.
To be fair, since West left the organization, they had no picks in 2017, the 28th pick in 2018, and 28/41/58 in 2019. And they did manage to get Paschall with the 41st pick this past year
 

Big John

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People who said Kelly Olynyk wasn't athletic probably never watched him play. For a seven footer he was very agile and quick, which allowed him to thrive as a help defender in Boston, and he got off the floor quickly for a guy that size. He was/is one of the more athletic true seven footers in the league; there is more to athleticism than vertical leaping ability.
Then maybe they shouldn't have let him go for nothing. As for agility, Olynyk was poor moving laterally, which is one reason why he was so foul prone.
 

lovegtm

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Then maybe they shouldn't have let him go for nothing. As for agility, Olynyk was poor moving laterally, which is one reason why he was so foul prone.
There's a difference between pre-draft upside/projection and ultimate outcome. This isn't a super-hard concept.
 

InstaFace

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so if we had re-signed Olynyk, it would have reflected badly on Ainge because he sucks, but if we let him go in free agency, then it reflects badly on Ainge because he's valuable. Everyone got that?
 

Big John

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There's a difference between pre-draft upside/projection and ultimate outcome. This isn't a super-hard concept.
There is also a difference between pre-draft upside projections that are realistic and those which are not.
As for Jokic, I did not watch him in the Adriatic league, but I bet he was pretty good. And as a 41st pick, he's just another example along with Ginobili and others of NBA GMs undervaluing international players, although one of the reasons Jokic slipped is that he was rumored to have a deal in place with FCB Barcelona.
 

lovegtm

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There is also a difference between pre-draft upside projections that are realistic and those which are not.
As for Jokic, I did not watch him in the Adriatic league, but I bet he was pretty good. And as a 41st pick, he's just another example along with Ginobili and others of NBA GMs undervaluing international players, although one of the reasons Jokic slipped is that he was rumored to have a deal in place with FCB Barcelona.
It's pretty crazy that no NBA team has hired you as a talent evaluator yet. You clearly have a lot they could learn from.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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There is also a difference between pre-draft upside projections that are realistic and those which are not.
As for Jokic, I did not watch him in the Adriatic league, but I bet he was pretty good. And as a 41st pick, he's just another example along with Ginobili and others of NBA GMs undervaluing international players, although one of the reasons Jokic slipped is that he was rumored to have a deal in place with FCB Barcelona.
Are you saying KO wasn't good at Gonzaga? He had a TS% of .675. His PER of 36.2 and OWS/40 = .222. He scored inside and out and had great mechanics on his jump shot.

In fact, it's funny that you mention Jokic because the analysis of Jokic is almost word-for-word what you read about KO. For example:

Jokic might have been the most skilled big man at the Hoop Summit when you consider his outside shooting, but his complete lack of strength and explosion really limit his NBA future. The 19 year old was reportedly very solid in the first two practices, and he showed flashes of that later in the week. He is deadly in the post when he gets a smaller player switched onto him, and is an excellent shooter out to the FIBA arc, even on pick and pops.
But it really is hard to see him surviving on the interior in the NBA. Although he somehow weighed in at 253 lbs, he sure doesn’t look it. He is thin, but also has zero muscle definition and can’t jump at all. At 6’11 with a 9’3 standing reach, he still is barely able to dunk even when wide open. And challenging shots is not his forte either; for comparison, look how much higher Towns gets on this dunk despite their similar standing reaches.

Full set of KO stats here: http://www.tankathon.com/players/kelly-olynyk
 

lovegtm

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Are you saying KO wasn't good at Gonzaga? He had a TS% of .675. His PER of 36.2 and OWS/40 = .222. He scored inside and out and had great mechanics on his jump shot.

In fact, it's funny that you mention Jokic because the analysis of Jokic is almost word-for-word what you read about KO. For example:

Jokic might have been the most skilled big man at the Hoop Summit when you consider his outside shooting, but his complete lack of strength and explosion really limit his NBA future. The 19 year old was reportedly very solid in the first two practices, and he showed flashes of that later in the week. He is deadly in the post when he gets a smaller player switched onto him, and is an excellent shooter out to the FIBA arc, even on pick and pops.
But it really is hard to see him surviving on the interior in the NBA. Although he somehow weighed in at 253 lbs, he sure doesn’t look it. He is thin, but also has zero muscle definition and can’t jump at all. At 6’11 with a 9’3 standing reach, he still is barely able to dunk even when wide open. And challenging shots is not his forte either; for comparison, look how much higher Towns gets on this dunk despite their similar standing reaches.

Full set of KO stats here: http://www.tankathon.com/players/kelly-olynyk
Yes, but if you look back at them now, it's clear that Jokic was going to be better!
 

lovegtm

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Also, to try and bring the discussion back around, by way of Giannis:

Milwaukee nailed that pick as hard as you can nail anything, and had other high picks during the period (hi, Jabari Parker!).

Even with that, the Celtics have achieved similar or greater regular+postseason success in that time, and they still haven’t gotten to the part where Tatum and Brown are in their primes.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Are you saying KO wasn't good at Gonzaga? He had a TS% of .675. His PER of 36.2 and OWS/40 = .222. He scored inside and out and had great mechanics on his jump shot.

In fact, it's funny that you mention Jokic because the analysis of Jokic is almost word-for-word what you read about KO. For example:

Jokic might have been the most skilled big man at the Hoop Summit when you consider his outside shooting, but his complete lack of strength and explosion really limit his NBA future. The 19 year old was reportedly very solid in the first two practices, and he showed flashes of that later in the week. He is deadly in the post when he gets a smaller player switched onto him, and is an excellent shooter out to the FIBA arc, even on pick and pops.
But it really is hard to see him surviving on the interior in the NBA. Although he somehow weighed in at 253 lbs, he sure doesn’t look it. He is thin, but also has zero muscle definition and can’t jump at all. At 6’11 with a 9’3 standing reach, he still is barely able to dunk even when wide open. And challenging shots is not his forte either; for comparison, look how much higher Towns gets on this dunk despite their similar standing reaches.

Full set of KO stats here: http://www.tankathon.com/players/kelly-olynyk
“Word for word” ignores the limitations we knew that Olynyk’s length and lack of foot speed/quickness handicapped his upside on both ends of the floor.

Edit: Don’t know how I got bold from my phone but whatever. Sorry.


Olynyk was a REALLY good college player and a low ceiling/high floor NBA player. I simply cannot get behind using a low lottery pick on a player that has no chance of making a major impact on a lottery team.
 

InstaFace

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I just wish Red had been around to see the Billy King trade. Him dying laughing from that would have been preferable to the way he went, dying of a heart attack after we finally instituted a dance squad.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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“Word for word” ignores the limitations we knew that Olynyk’s length and lack of foot speed/quickness handicapped his upside on both ends of the floor.
Wait, are you saying that Jokic has NBA foot speed/quickness?

Read this draft profile of Jokic: View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2096255-nikola-jokic-nba-draft-2014-highlights-scouting-report-and-more
. Honestly, it's pretty much exactly the same as KO except Jokic has 5-6 inches of wingspan.

"The big downside, though, is his athleticism. He doesn't get much lift off the floor at all, and he doesn't have the speed burst to drive past opponents or stay in front of them laterally."

"It's going to give him major problems on defense and limit him to being a role player on offense."

"he's able to make some superb plays as a passer and convert easy buckets as a cutter. "

"his smooth, accurate tosses at the Hoop Summit didn't go unnoticed, as he looked like a potential stretch big. "

"has a nice touch from mid-range and near the hoop. He can hit turnarounds from 10-15 feet as well as short hooks and flip shot "

"[his] weaknesses revolve around his bottom-tier athleticism. While he moves his feet pretty well from point A to point B, he lacks the quickness and vertical agility that the rest of the league owns."

"These deficiencies will be most glaring on the defensive side, where he'll struggle to keep up with NBA-caliber speed. Whether he's guarding power forwards or centers, he'll have trouble staying in front of them or consistently protecting the rim. He also won't be as effective on the boards as he [currently] is"

"The slow-footed tendencies will also hurt his chances to create offense. Even on closeout drives, his slashing will get corralled pretty easily by help defenders, and he won't be able to elevate over upper-echelon defenders."

Every single one of these statements can be found in KO draft profiles. It's just that Jokic got ALOT better and KO got a little better. C'est le guerre.
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
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Santa Monica
Grant Williams (21) is a very good selection.
His advanced off/def/net rating is excellent. He will never be a big box score/stat stuffer.
https://stats.nba.com/player/1629684/He is a great complimentary player to JT/JB/Kemba/GH, he won't steal shots from them but will play solid defense. His IQ/make-up is off the charts for a kid his age.

Waters (22), as a late 2nd rounder, was a very good value selection. G-League Player of the Month out of the gates is really impressive. The one time he received real minutes in an NBA game, he was a big contributor in the win. I'd like to see him get more minutes at the NBA level going forward.

Romeo (20), when healthy, has been solid. He doesn't look overwhelmed on the floor and is strong going to the hoop.

Carsen (21), had a promising summer/pre-season but has been disappointing. 2nd rounder, on the cheap for multiple years, still developing. The good news is he has received plenty of NBA minutes and hasn't hurt the teams W/L record. He needs to work on a shooting routine/rhythm at Maine.

These guys are very young, promising, great attitudes, hard workers. Most importantly they will need to earn their minutes as opposed to rookies on tankers that are just handed NBA minutes.

I'd give Ainge an A- for his 2019 draft (plus adding Tacko for nothing is another coup by Danny)
Is the A- grade for Danny, in regards to 2019, out of line?

Grant, with Grant plays last night and Tremont making it happen again...

https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/14/nba-boston-celtics-g-league-red-claws-tremont-waters-player-of-week/
 

lovegtm

Member
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Apr 30, 2013
11,997
Is the A- grade for Danny, in regards to 2019, out of line?

Grant, with Grant plays last night and Tremont making it happen again...

https://celticswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/14/nba-boston-celtics-g-league-red-claws-tremont-waters-player-of-week/
Still wayyyy too early to say. A lot depends on what happens with Romeo, and whether Grant hits starter-level, and whether Waters can hold up defensively at backup PG.

I’m decently optimistic, but much too early for victory laps.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,112
Santa Monica
Jakob Poltl is an example of why those bk-ref stats are not considered all that rigorous or even useful. He is obviously a useful role player; he can rebound and score inside. He cannot defend and his free throw shooting is atrocious and will likely never improve. He is also one year older than Brown.
Obviously Brown is much, much better.

I agree Poltl is a crap FT shooter, that won't help spread the floor.
BUT he can also block/alter shots at the rim, and rebounds ( 2.9 blk/11.7reb per 36).
His On/Off has been positive for 3 straight season's, DBPM, BPM, VORP, NetRtg all fine. Nothing jumps out

What makes you think he cannot defend?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/poeltja01.html
 
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benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,112
Santa Monica
Still wayyyy too early to say. A lot depends on what happens with Romeo, and whether Grant hits starter-level, and whether Waters can hold up defensively at backup PG.

I’m decently optimistic, but much too early for victory laps.
No victory laps, just looking for a mid-season grade.

I've seen grades for drafts the day of the draft...
 

Devizier

Member
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Jul 3, 2000
19,470
Somewhere
Draft grades are useless for one reason: there's no consistency on a draft-to-draft basis

I mean Darko and Stro Swift were picked at the same position in their respective drafts, contributed roughly the same amount at the NBA level, etc.

But Darko was a disaster and Stro was not, given that there were like 3 rotation-level NBA players in the entire 2000 draft.
 
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the moops

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Jan 19, 2016
4,700
Saint Paul, MN
Milwaukee nailed that pick as hard as you can nail anything
I think more than anything they just got lucky as shit. Their draft record has been pretty terrible. Their top 10 picks under the same GM that picked Giannis were Yi Jianlian, Joe Alexander, Brandon Jennings, Jimmer Fredette, Jabari Parker, and Thon Maker
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
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Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Wait, are you saying that Jokic has NBA foot speed/quickness?

Read this draft profile of Jokic: View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2096255-nikola-jokic-nba-draft-2014-highlights-scouting-report-and-more
. Honestly, it's pretty much exactly the same as KO except Jokic has 5-6 inches of wingspan.

"The big downside, though, is his athleticism. He doesn't get much lift off the floor at all, and he doesn't have the speed burst to drive past opponents or stay in front of them laterally."

"It's going to give him major problems on defense and limit him to being a role player on offense."

"he's able to make some superb plays as a passer and convert easy buckets as a cutter. "

"his smooth, accurate tosses at the Hoop Summit didn't go unnoticed, as he looked like a potential stretch big. "

"has a nice touch from mid-range and near the hoop. He can hit turnarounds from 10-15 feet as well as short hooks and flip shot "

"[his] weaknesses revolve around his bottom-tier athleticism. While he moves his feet pretty well from point A to point B, he lacks the quickness and vertical agility that the rest of the league owns."

"These deficiencies will be most glaring on the defensive side, where he'll struggle to keep up with NBA-caliber speed. Whether he's guarding power forwards or centers, he'll have trouble staying in front of them or consistently protecting the rim. He also won't be as effective on the boards as he [currently] is"

"The slow-footed tendencies will also hurt his chances to create offense. Even on closeout drives, his slashing will get corralled pretty easily by help defenders, and he won't be able to elevate over upper-echelon defenders."

Every single one of these statements can be found in KO draft profiles. It's just that Jokic got ALOT better and KO got a little better. C'est le guerre.
Not at all. What I’m saying is that Jokic has (and I’m guessing) about 5-6 inches wingspan advantage as well as the bulk/skill set to defend big 5’s whereas Olynyk is stuck as a 4/5 tweeter.

I mean “except 5-6 inches in wingspan” is a pretty enormous thing for an NBA frontcourt player. For Olynyk offensively, when you combine his alligator arms with his slow wind up release it greatly affects his ability to get off perimeter shots. Defensively his lack of length prohibits him from matching up against effectively against most frontcourts as he can’t close out well enough to contest perimeter shots against elite players.
 
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lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
11,997
I think more than anything they just got lucky as shit. Their draft record has been pretty terrible. Their top 10 picks under the same GM that picked Giannis were Yi Jianlian, Joe Alexander, Brandon Jennings, Jimmer Fredette, Jabari Parker, and Thon Maker
Yup, was my point actually: they nailed the Giannis pick, but everything about their drafting record suggests that it was dumb luck.

Which is why it’s weird that passing on Giannis is the standard applied to Ainge and co.—you could just as easily ask why the Milwaukee GM passed on Embiid (and many others in all those top 10s).
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
21,759
Pittsburgh, PA
right, by "nailed" I interpreted you to mean "hit their 100th-percentile outcome, impossible to have had it work out any better".