2019 Patriots Draft - How'd They Do?

EL Jeffe

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I know the season isn't over yet, and this thread is better left for when it is, but screw it. I needed a diversion from thinking about the blown opportunity against Miami.

So with that being said, I figured it would be interesting to hear the draft guru's take on the 2019 class one season out. Were your takes right? What surprised or disappointed you? For me, I really liked the class haul at the time. I was so high on Stidham (more on him later) that he alone made the class a success for me. I liked the mix of plug-and-play types and redshirt development guys. Now one year out, I feel pretty much the same. I think this was one of NE's best classes of the Belichick era.

1) N'Keal Harry: This was actually the pick I least liked at the time. My receipts on Harry are in the 2019 prospect thread; I felt like he was an easy evaluation as a 3rd rounder who'd go in the 2nd based on size and production. He ended up going #32, and the good and the bad have certainly shown up this season. I don't think Harry will ever be a featured receiver; he simply lacks the explosive burst and suddenness in and out of his breaks to consistently beat man coverage. Every traditional route is a contested catch with him. He'll win some based on size, hands, ball skills and catch radius - but it's really hard to make a living on contested catches. I think he's always going to be a guy who you'll need to manufacture touches for: jet sweeps, tear screens, etc. He'll win some jump balls and back shoulder throws, but he's just never open. The good news is that he's really good with the ball in his hands. He's also as good of a blocker as I expected. I don't see him as a bust; I think he has enough value to be a quality weapon. I just don't see him ever being a focal point of an NFL offense. I much preferred Paris Campbell and Deebo Samuel; Campbell had a lost year with injuries and Deebo has looked great in SF.

2) Joejuan Williams: I liked the pick at the time. I thought he'd be an excellent jam/press corner in the NFL.His long speed is marginal, but his change of direction is impressive for a 6'4" 220# corner. There were mixed reports out of camp, but I thought he looked good in the preseason games. He hasn't played a ton in the regular season, but when he has, he's held his own. He was matched up against a pretty good receiver in Gallup in the Dallas game and Prescott never went his way once. He hasn't looked out of place on the kickoff coverage unit, which helps his cause for playing time. I imagine he takes Jason McCourty's role next year; anything less would be a concern for a 2nd rounder. There were rumblings that they strongly considered Williams at #32 last year, so I have to believe they have bigger plans for him.

3) Chase Winovich: Another player I felt was like a pretty easy evaluation. I liked the player but didn't think he was a clean scheme fit for NE; but I was happy with the pick. He's filled the role I envisioned: situational pass rusher and core special teams. His rush skills have been solid; he'll get overaggressive and lose contain at times, but he has great hands and a quick get-off. He's been better against the run than I thought and he's been able to stack and shed at a better level than I anticipated. Still, Calhoun played with better power and did a better job of setting an edge. I think Wino is 24 and I imagine he's fairly maxed out physically. I don't know how much upside is left with him, but he's definitely a win for a 3rd round pick.

3) Damien Harris: He seemed like a luxury pick at the time (no clear role for him) but I liked the player. 5* high school player who won - and kept - a job at the most competitive program in CFB. Granted Josh Jacobs took some of his thunder away their final year, but there was a lot to like with Harris. He impressed in his preseason opportunities, but as expected, he essentially never saw the field with too many guys ahead of him (and healthy RBs all season). If Burkhead comes back next year, it's hard to see where Harris fits in. I personally think he has a higher ceiling than Sony: better burst, more natural in the passing game. However, I'm not sure a healthy Sony loses that job. I think he can certainly be a starting NFL RB, I'm just not sure if he'll get the opportunity here.

3) Yodny Cajuste: I liked him as a developmental player. Physically, he looks exactly like you want a LT to look. I really liked his pass pro at WVU but thought he really struggled pulling and 2nd level blocking. I expect that these are fixable issues with him, but time will tell. My understanding of his injury situation was that it wasn't supposed to be a season long IR issue. I'm not sure if recovery didn't go as expected or they just planned to redshirt him from the start. I'm hopeful he's at least the swing OT next year, and maybe best case gives Cannon a legit challenge for RT (but I still expect Cannon to hold that job). He has a high degree of boom-or-bust, but that's the type of prospect you want to gamble on when you have three 3rd round picks. Legit starting OTs are hard to come by, so I'm still good with this pick.

4) Hjalte Froholdt: I hadn't done any film review on Froholdt prior to the draft, so I didn't have much to go on. After the draft I went and watched his Alabama game and he really did handle himself well against Q. Williams. He had an up and down preseason, but was clearly well behind Karras...then he got hurt and that was that. Thuney and Karras are both UFAs, so there's definitely a potential opening to be had (my guess is Thuney walks for a big money deal the Pats can't afford). He showed enough flashes that I think he has an NFL future. Really nice size, aggressive, and reasonably athletic. For a 4th round pick, he's shown me enough to be okay with the pick.

4) Jarrett Stidham: My guy. My receipts on Stidham are also in the draft forum; I thought he was the most undervalued player in the draft. I genuinely saw him as a 1st round QB talent who was victim of a terrible offensive system. He was a blue chip HS recruit who saw the field at Baylor as a true freshman and completed 69% of his passes with a 12-2 TD/INT ratio. Had the Baylor program not imploded, I fully believe he would have gone on to put up Baker Mayfield/Joe Burrow type video game stats. But...the Baylor program imploded and he made his way to Auburn, where he was stuck in a terrible offense for two years. The traits were all there though, if you could look beyond play designs. I know Jim Nagy was - and has been - all-in on Stidham as a starting NFL QB. I went back last week and re-watched every preseason throw by Stidham - just super impressive stuff. If he'd been a 1st round QB, and that was his preseason performance, I don't think anyone would have been disappointed. There was recent article indicating that he's continued to look very impressive in practice, so we'll see what the future holds here. I loved the pick at the time, and I love it now. I'll drive the Stidham bandwagon until it falls off a cliff.

5) Byron Cowart: I liked the pick and his positional versatility. He was never going to live up to his HS press clippings, but he looks like a rotational DL. He had a nice preseason, but very limited regular season time. He'll have an opportunity for a role next season. Physical and aggressive, but at 6'3, 300# he's not terribly long and he's not very sudden. For a late 5th round, it's hard to complain about this one.

5) Jake Bailey: I thought it was funny that they traded up for a punter (overpaid, based on the valuation charts) but Bailey has acquitted himself well. He'll shank one every now and then, but his kickoffs have been very good and he's punted well. His FG holds in preseason weren't great, but he fixed the problem. Good pick.

7) Ken Webster: I liked him as a size/speed DB with good special teams potential. There were just too many guys ahead of him in NE and you can't just Foxboro Flu every guy you'd like to keep. I'm not surprised Miami picked him up; he actually started five games for them before getting hurt. He would have been an ideal practice squad candidate, but Flores was intent on taking as many developmental Patriots as he could (and I can't blame him).
 

Super Nomario

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Incomplete, but weak early returns. Jakobi Meyers was the only offensive rookie to play 20% of snaps. Winovich was the only defensive rookie. Winovich, Bailey, and Gunner Olszewski were the only rookies to play 20% of special teams snaps. It's not unusual to get little of rookies, and they are getting very little out of their rookies.

Of the 15 WR draftees I watched (and I missed some guys, notably Diontae Johnson and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside), I had Harry ranked 7th, behind Marquise Brown (not available at 32), A.J. Brown, Hakeem Butler (miss), Miles Boykin, Samuel, and D.K. Metcalf. I actually liked him better than Campbell, who I think had a lot of the same issues and some but not all of the same strengths. I also liked him better than Terry McLaurin and Mecole Hardman, which looks wrong now.

I feel like every year we see not that much out of the rookies but talk ourselves into them for year two, only to be disappointed. The 2015 class was really the last year where Y2 wasn't an unmitigated disaster (Trey Flowers and Shaq Mason breakouts overcoming disappointments by Malcom Brown, Jordan Richards, Geneo Grissom, and Tre' Jackson).
 

ifmanis5

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I think you sold Bailey short. He has been a solid upgrade over what they had in the past few seasons and filling in for Ghost on kickoffs kept a positive semblance of continuity for coverage that really could have nosedived. For me the draft falls apart with both OL not being able to contribute this season when they were so desperately needed. Harris (who looked good in college) is also a headscratcher- for an offense so depleted of dynamic playmakers the fact that he couldn't get on the field consistently says that this was a miss. I get that BB thinks big picture and long term but with Brady's window closing they needed more of an immediate impact on offense and they didn't get what they needed. Long term I do think Wino, Cowart and Williams are defensive starters and if Harry can stay healthy, he is a hit. Overall, with good health and development (add in Meyers here as well) this is a net positive result. But short term, where they really needed specific help, it was a disappointment.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think the draft was pretty solid but it’s clear that it’s still TBD on just how good it was. By next year, I expect Harry to be a top 3 WR, JJ to be a regular contributor, and Harris to be getting Burkhead’s snaps. Bailey has turned our punting game into a real asset. Winovich has been solid but likely won’t ever be a real impact guy. Cajuste and Froholdt both could serve as OL depth options next year. And we’ll soon know more about Stidham. Meyers and Gunner both have good shots at making team next year.

Obviously, all the best case scenarios won’t materialize but I think there is real upside here.
 

SMU_Sox

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The problem with evaluating the draft results is that this is a such a veteran team that rookies got even less playing time than usual even for a BB team.

The one guy who was primed to have more of a role, N'Keal Harry got hurt and missed a ton of time. He has YAC skills, vision, balance, etc but he struggled with route running. Will Harry be able to thrive in the x position next year? You don't want to bet against a guys development but I got more of a gadget and/or manufactured touches role for him than an every down option. Time will tell. I wasn't a big Harry guy pre-draft. I liked Hakeem Butler (miss), AJ Brown, Terry McLaurin, Miles Boykin (mediocre year), Deebo Samuel and of those guys I was only considering Hakeem Butler, AJ Brown, and Samuel in the first for the mocks. Hakeem was the ultimate high ceiling guy but AJ Brown and Samuel were the high floor WR2 guys.

I have more faith in Meyers. I think with Meyers aside from some plays where he gave up on the route and/or was on the wrong page with Brady he had a good year. He looks like he can play a non-outside receiving role going forward. I don't think he will ever be more than a rotational guy but that's fine for a UDFA.

Harris didn't play because they are stocked at RB. Incomplete.

Williams looked ok in such a limited number of snaps that it doesn't matter. It is a shame he couldn't be a TE takeaway weapon in a limited role this year. With Jon Jones and JMC dealing with groin injuries (Jon Jones play dropped off the face of the earth after the injury) I was hoping he'd get more play time.

Cajuste and Froholdt had red-shirt years.

Cowart played fine in a limited role. As a rotational piece he looked solid.

Winovich looks like he can be an above average edge. Solid-starter type. That's good value for round 3.

Bailey looks like the punter for years.

Throwing Wynn in there but by the last 2-3 games I thought he looked like he could hold down the LT job going forward.

Right now it is an incomplete because 2 guys were red-shirted, 2 didn't play much at all, and 1 was hurt a lot.

I wish they found a way to draft Dawson Knox or Terry McLaurin. Maybe draft or sign a competent starting TE?

My hope for them is that they draft an X-Flanker type with decent speed and route running and a tight end who can block well and run seam routes. It's too bad this years TE class is not nearly as good.

Also fuck the 2nd round pick for Sanu.
 

EL Jeffe

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The thing that makes evaluating draft classes so hard is that New England is just always going to play the best guy, period. As crazy as that sounds, New England is pretty much the only organization that applies to. Take Jason McCourty vs. Joejuan Williams; you can probably count on one hand the number of teams who would have played McCourty over Williams. They'd just go with the younger, cheaper guy and let him play through his mistakes. BB just isn't wired that way. He'll worry about the future...in the future. So I definitely get caught in the trap of assuming in 2020, well certainly Williams is going to beat out McCourty. 2nd round pick, they liked him enough to consider him at #32, and he looked okay in his limited snaps in 2019. But for BB, he's going to need to see Williams beat him out.

SMU: Have you looked at Kmet yet? I've barely dug into the 2020 class but from my casual observations, Kmet was just about the only clean NE Y TE fit I saw.
 

tims4wins

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The thing that makes evaluating draft classes so hard is that New England is just always going to play the best guy, period. As crazy as that sounds, New England is pretty much the only organization that applies to. Take Jason McCourty vs. Joejuan Williams; you can probably count on one hand the number of teams who would have played McCourty over Williams. They'd just go with the younger, cheaper guy and let him play through his mistakes. BB just isn't wired that way. He'll worry about the future...in the future. So I definitely get caught in the trap of assuming in 2020, well certainly Williams is going to beat out McCourty. 2nd round pick, they liked him enough to consider him at #32, and he looked okay in his limited snaps in 2019. But for BB, he's going to need to see Williams beat him out.

SMU: Have you looked at Kmet yet? I've barely dug into the 2020 class but from my casual observations, Kmet was just about the only clean NE Y TE fit I saw.
Right, and specific to McCourty, I could see a scenario where he leaves or retires... and the Pats then sign Logan Ryan to come back home and play the slot again.
 

SMU_Sox

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It’s not too early to want to do a deeper dive on N’Keal because he is looking like a bust. He finishes the year with 14 receptions on 31 targets. That’s an atrocious 45% catch rate. In the eight games he played he had 126 receiving yards good for a whopping 15.75 a game. His best game was 3 receptions for 29 yards. You’d think with all the red zone woes this offense had that maybe he’d be able to contribute more there too. Running once twice a game for 7-15 yards is a nice gimmick but not significant.

His route running and breaks are not crisp. He isn’t consistently using his size to box out defensive backs. Compare that to other rookies. Yeah he’s missed time and there’s been some coaching upheaval vs in years past but so what? Does anyone think he’s magically going to run better routes and get separation with 8 more weeks of coaching? Also, for a contested catch guy his catching technique and hands aren’t exceptional.

Yes receivers take time and it would be foolish to completely write him off but this was not a good start to his career and I am not encouraged about his long term future here because he struggles with the fundamentals. He will need to tap into that supposedly high character work ethic and hopefully figure things out.

There was a reason Harry wasn’t high on most of our lists. Still shocked they passed on Deebo and AJ Brown for him.
 

Ale Xander

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I'd easily take Bailey's performance yesterday if it means we got his performance last Super Bowl.

Harry will be a beast. (pun intended)

I'm optimistic on everyone we took in the first 4 rounds, but it's too early to tell. Injuries suck.
 

j44thor

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I'd easily take Bailey's performance yesterday if it means we got his performance last Super Bowl.

Harry will be a beast. (pun intended)

I'm optimistic on everyone we took in the first 4 rounds, but it's too early to tell. Injuries suck.
Did you mean Ryan Allen's SB perfomance where he should have been the SB MVP?

More than anything I hope this ends the run of getting cute in the draft and drafting ST players in the 5th rd. The marginal upgrade of a Cardona vs street FA can't be that high.

For whatever reason this FO isn't good at drafting skill position players so they need to throw some additional darts at those positions where a hit is substantially more valuable than a marginal upgrade at ST.

Even a Darius Slayton type would have made a significant difference this year. Brady simply had no one that could beat man coverage once they took away Jules.
 

Super Nomario

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More than anything I hope this ends the run of getting cute in the draft and drafting ST players in the 5th rd. The marginal upgrade of a Cardona vs street FA can't be that high.
I have a lot of problems with this. One, I don't know why you think drafting ST players is "cute." Two, ST matters. They lose the division without the blocked punt in Buffalo. They've certainly made a ton of big ST plays through the years that have rewarded Belichick's investment in it. Three, they draft plenty of non-ST guys on day three. This year, they drafted Cowart (not a ST guy) and Bailey (a ST guy) and Ken Webster (who didn't make the team but played a lot on D and almost none on ST for Miami). They've taken plenty of late-round flyers on skill guys: Jeremy Gallon, Jeremy Ebert, Devin Lucien, Braxton Berrios, A.J. Derby, etc. Unfortunately, Ryan Izzo is the closest thing to a success story. Losing the Deflategate pick hurt, trading picks for useless guys like Sanu and Eluemunor hurts, and they've had bad luck and missed too many picks. Reality is every GM has stretches of down drafting and the team usually isn't very competitive during that span.
 

lexrageorge

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A reasonable expectation for a 5th round pick or later is that the player ends up contributing regularly on special teams. Even better if they can provide bench depth. Most players drafted in the late rounds have short careers.

A bigger problem is the misses on the early rounds, which have finally come home to roost.

Looking at this year's draft (the topic of this thread), so far I'd give it a C-minus. Winovich looks like a keeper for at least the duration of his rookie contract. Bailey had a horrible game last night, but otherwise was solid all season and allowed them to save $$$ on the punter position. It's obviously too early to tell on Joejuan Williams and the 2 OL redshirts, which is fine for their draft position. Harry was indeed a disappointment; first round picks should do more out of the gate. Damien Harris was also a disappointment, but sometimes rookie RB's don't get a lot of play from Belichick until they are no longer rookies. And the rest are developmental or ST players, again fine for where they were drafted.
 

Ale Xander

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Did you mean Ryan Allen's SB perfomance where he should have been the SB MVP?

More than anything I hope this ends the run of getting cute in the draft and drafting ST players in the 5th rd. The marginal upgrade of a Cardona vs street FA can't be that high.

For whatever reason this FO isn't good at drafting skill position players so they need to throw some additional darts at those positions where a hit is substantially more valuable than a marginal upgrade at ST.

Even a Darius Slayton type would have made a significant difference this year. Brady simply had no one that could beat man coverage once they took away Jules.
Jesus what a brain fart on my part