2019-20 Offseason Discussion

Le Bastonois

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Jun 16, 2019
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Mazza sighting?
Can Gazza be far behind?
Mazza grandmother's cousin was Dom DiMaggio, Red Sox Center fielder from 1940-1953;
1946 pennant; played with Ted Williams. They called him The Perfessor because of his large round eye glasses.

As Kent Dorfman said in Animal House, they have to take me, I'm a legacy.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Ryu just went to the Blue Jays for 4/80, so that probably closes that door.

the Angels got no one elite, just Bundy & Teheran. time to call them again I think.
 

jon abbey

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Heyman says:

"Teams that still seek a starter: Twins, Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Phillies, possibly Brewers, Braves. Starters whose names are heard on market: Price, Ray, Boyd, Clevinger, Happ, speculatively Archer, Matz/Stroman, M. Gonzales, Quintana. Should be a wild scramble."
 

stepson_and_toe

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Aug 11, 2019
386
So I guess they really aren't kidding with that policy!
Around 1990, plus or minus a bit, there were teams that were quite strict about what you could bring in. I recall not being allowed to bring my camera into one spring training game about then (Rangers in Charlotte?) and after that I took to checking the FAQs for each stadium before going. Today, it's basically they look in a bag, see a camera on top and don't check if there is anything else.
 
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Teachdad46

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Oct 14, 2011
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The thing is, the difference between the 52nd best prospect in the minors and the 98th is pretty small. When you start comparing the difference between the 24th best prospect on the Yankees to the 24th best prospect on the Redsox, it becomes pretty pointless.
I agree that the difference between the 52nd and 98th best prospect in the same set (all of MiLB) might be pretty small, the difference between the Sox 24th best prospect and the Yankees' best prospect might be pretty large, as they two different sets of players. The 24th best for one team might be 115th in MiLB and the 24th in the other might not be in the top 250 in MiLB.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I agree that the difference between the 52nd and 98th best prospect in the same set (all of MiLB) might be pretty small, the difference between the Sox 24th best prospect and the Yankees' best prospect might be pretty large, as they two different sets of players. The 24th best for one team might be 115th in MiLB and the 24th in the other might not be in the top 250 in MiLB.
The difference between prospects ranked 115th and 250th is smaller than the difference between 52nd and 98th. Hell, the difference between 115 and 250 is possibly smaller than the difference between 1 and 2.
 

Plympton91

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The difference between prospects ranked 115th and 250th is smaller than the difference between 52nd and 98th. Hell, the difference between 115 and 250 is possibly smaller than the difference between 1 and 2.
Are you taking into account peak trade value when you make these statements, or just ultimate outcomes. Blake Swihart hasn’t amounted to much of a major leaguer, but at one time he could have been traded as the centerpiece of a package for Cole Hamels. You can’t do that with the 250th ranked prospect, even if that 250th ranked prospect ultimately ends up with similar career WAR.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Are you taking into account peak trade value when you make these statements, or just ultimate outcomes. Blake Swihart hasn’t amounted to much of a major leaguer, but at one time he could have been traded as the centerpiece of a package for Cole Hamels. You can’t do that with the 250th ranked prospect, even if that 250th ranked prospect ultimately ends up with similar career WAR.
Both. Teams want to trade for other teams top 10 prospects, not their 38th and 39th. It's possible a team falls in love with a certain prospect though. Billy Beane does a lot.
 

shaggydog2000

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Are you taking into account peak trade value when you make these statements, or just ultimate outcomes. Blake Swihart hasn’t amounted to much of a major leaguer, but at one time he could have been traded as the centerpiece of a package for Cole Hamels. You can’t do that with the 250th ranked prospect, even if that 250th ranked prospect ultimately ends up with similar career WAR.
If you look at the scouting ratings and projected future values for players, they have a distribution like you would expect from a Gaussian. The truly exceptional 99.99% guys are incredibly rare. There may be only one on the top 100 prospects list, or none in some years. Then as you go down the tiers of talent, the number of each player in a tier gets bigger. By the time you're down at the 100th ranked prospect, even the people ranking them will admit the players are in a pretty large tier of roughly comparable players. That tier could be 100 players, or more.
 

jon abbey

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I feel like a lot of general statements are being thrown around here without a lot of specific knowledge. Fangraphs keeps a running list of all prospects they think have promise, no matter how many or few per system. Right now they are tracking 34 BOS prospects, 59 TBR prospects, and 58 NYY prospects (34 BAL prospects and 39 TOR prospects to finish the AL East). The difference is in quantity/depth.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0
 

Cesar Crespo

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I feel like a lot of general statements are being thrown around here without a lot of specific knowledge. Fangraphs keeps a running list of all prospects they think have promise, no matter how many or few per system. Right now they are tracking 34 BOS prospects, 59 TBR prospects, and 58 NYY prospects (34 BAL prospects and 39 TOR prospects to finish the AL East). The difference is in quantity/depth.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0
And my argument is there aren't 34 Redsox really worth tracking unless you are an absolute diehard because most of the 34 is organizational filler. The Yankees and Rays have 25 more fillers, yay!
 

jon abbey

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And my argument is there aren't 34 Redsox really worth tracking unless you are an absolute diehard because most of the 34 is organizational filler. The Yankees and Rays have 25 more fillers, yay!
I know, it's not an argument based in reality, but I will stop.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I know, it's not an argument based in reality, but I will stop.
Except it is and it's been proven over and over again. There's a reason most publications don't go beyond the first 10 prospects. How many of those 58 prospects are going to go on and contribute at the Major League level or even be traded away? Maybe 2-4 more than the Redsox? Hmm.

I've been reading and following the minors for 30 years. It is based 100% on reality. Were you around when PhillySoxfans was?
 

E5 Yaz

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I honestly can't believe I'm the one who's saying this ... but could the two of you find some other place to continue this fascinating measuring contest?
 

Plympton91

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I honestly can't believe I'm the one who's saying this ... but could the two of you find some other place to continue this fascinating measuring contest?
Most people have a difficult time thinking in terms of probabilities, especially in the tails of distributions. Suppose each prospect from #20 to #50 is from a truly equivalent group and has only a 1 percent chance of making an impact in the major leagues. but that team 1 has all 30 players in that pool and team 2 has only 15 players in that pool, then team 1 has about a 27% chance of at least 1 making a meaninging contribution while team 1 has about a 14% chance of at least 1 making a meaningful contribution.

That’s going to be a big difference over time, because getti those contributions gives you 6 years of indentured servitude.
 

Plympton91

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You are assuming Normal Distribution. Even if the curve is reasonably bell-shaped, you still need to take skewness and kurtosis into consideration.
No, that’s distribution-free. Just 1-(.99)^15 and 1-(.99)^30. The assumption is that all prospects in 20-50 are identical, which was just me taking as given what Cesar Crespo is sayinG about them.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Most people have a difficult time thinking in terms of probabilities, especially in the tails of distributions. Suppose each prospect from #20 to #50 is from a truly equivalent group and has only a 1 percent chance of making an impact in the major leagues. but that team 1 has all 30 players in that pool and team 2 has only 15 players in that pool, then team 1 has about a 27% chance of at least 1 making a meaninging contribution while team 1 has about a 14% chance of at least 1 making a meaningful contribution.

That’s going to be a big difference over time, because getti those contributions gives you 6 years of indentured servitude.
It would be a big difference over time, but we are talking a couple years. Farm systems turn around very fast.
 

JM3

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The more lottery tickets you have, the more chances you have of winning some money from the lottery. Even if those lottery tickets aren't valuable enough for anyone to actually want to take them off your hands.

Dombrowski didn't seem to really get it & didn't put nearly enough focus on replenishing the farm system. Confident Bloom won't repeat that.

Also hi forum :wave:
 

bosockboy

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The more lottery tickets you have, the more chances you have of winning some money from the lottery. Even if those lottery tickets aren't valuable enough for anyone to actually want to take them off your hands.

Dombrowski didn't seem to really get it & didn't put nearly enough focus on replenishing the farm system. Confident Bloom won't repeat that.

Also hi forum :wave:
DD focused on winning a ring and got it done in historic fashion. He’ll never buy a beer in my presence.
 

JM3

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DD focused on winning a ring and got it done in historic fashion. He’ll never buy a beer in my presence.
Yup, & that's great & was a ton of fun. But there's no reason he couldn't also have had at least brought in talented young players to complement the farm system. Maybe if he had agreed to delegate some of that stuff & trusted more people's opinions?

It's silly to say it's bad that he traded away a bunch of prospects - but it's sensible to wonder why their farm system was in such disarray & didn't replenish that talent.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Yup, & that's great & was a ton of fun. But there's no reason he couldn't also have had at least brought in talented young players to complement the farm system. Maybe if he had agreed to delegate some of that stuff & trusted more people's opinions?

It's silly to say it's bad that he traded away a bunch of prospects - but it's sensible to wonder why their farm system was in such disarray & didn't replenish that talent.
Really? He didn't keep a strong system AND win a WS because he didn't delegate and trust his staff?

How many teams win WS and keep a plenished system?
 

bosockboy

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Really? He didn't keep a strong system AND win a WS because he didn't delegate and trust his staff?

How many teams win WS and keep a plenished system?
Exactly. He did extraordinarily well picking the prospects to ship out. He kept the key pieces and Moncada might be the only prospect he traded that will have a modicum of success.
 

JM3

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Right...but he somehow couldn't get a single new good prospect the entire time he was here?

The 2 shouldn't be mutually exclusive.
 

YTF

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You need to be more specific as to what you mean by "get" new prospects? By what method? I'll give you the drafts to this point don't seem to have been solid, but for the time being shouldn't the grade on some of those drafts be incomplete? Other than that what are your proposals for "getting" prospects? Up until 2018 he was trying to build a winner around the prospects that had graduated into becoming a very solid core. In 2018 they we're a juggernaut on the way to a World Series championship, there certain were no thoughts of moving veterans during that run to restock the minors. Perhaps this season at the deadline might have been an opportunity, but they were trying to defend a title and while there were issues with the pitching staff they were still in the hunt for a wild card birth. And while I think most of us will agree with bosockboy that DD did well in selecting which prospects to move, should we not afford him the benefit of the doubt in that he may have also chosen the right prospects NOT to take back in any potential trades? After all, in Chaim's short time here we've seen the busiest pre-new year off season in recent years yet we still find the likes of Bett's, Bradley, Price, Martinez (and anyone else that you might deem as trade bait for prospects) still on the roster.
 
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Plympton91

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Exactly. He did extraordinarily well picking the prospects to ship out. He kept the key pieces and Moncada might be the only prospect he traded that will have a modicum of success.
Mauricio Dubon is 24 years old, had a 795 OPS in AA, a 813 OPS in AAA, and a 754 OPS in 110 PA for SF last year. I’d really like to be going into next season with him penciled in 2B for the major league minimum Instead of (or in addition to) José Peraza at $3 million. Thornburg was useless.

And Ty Buttrey is off to a great start with LAAA, and would still be a major league minimum middle reliever for 2 more seasons. Kinzler was entirely unnecessary ex-ante, but in the end had a couple big hits in the playoffs, so call that a push. Maybe he had to give up Buttrey to get him, or maybe he didn’t.
 

billy ashley

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Both those guys are role players. Dont get me wrong, I like both and yeah, it's great that they are free... But we are talking about a bullpen arm and the 25th/26th guy on a roster.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Both those guys are role players. Dont get me wrong, I like both and yeah, it's great that they are free... But we are talking about a bullpen arm and the 25th/26th guy on a roster.
Maybe. Dubon has hit for much more power than people thought. He'd potentially be our starting 2b, or at least in the conversation.

Dude hit 24 HRs last year.
 

Oppo

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Talk about some spoiled fans. How many other fanbases would trade 1 WS for decades of futility?
 

simplicio

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Maybe. Dubon has hit for much more power than people thought. He'd potentially be our starting 2b, or at least in the conversation.

Dude hit 24 HRs last year.
20 of those were in AAA, and is there anyone who didn't hit 24 HR last year? Not sure how much faith I'd place in that particular statistic.
 

Reverend

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Didn’t @soxhop411 post in pretty much everybforum to which it was applicable that the data from the minor leagues is kinda shite right now because of the fucking with the ball until we find a new baseline?
 
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jon abbey

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The two AAA leagues used the same ball as MLB last year, so you could say that about all 2019 MLB stats also, and what's even worse is we have no idea if the balls will change again this season (I guess theoretically they could have informally told the clubs but can you imagine if that leaked?).

There were some absolutely crazy PCL numbers last year, Taylor Widener went from a 2.75 ERA in 137 innings in AA in 2018 and a top 100 MLB prospect to a 8.10 ERA in 100 innings in the PCL in 2019. Justus Sheffield went from a 2.56 ERA in 88 innings in the IL in 2018 to a 6.87 ERA in 55 innings in the PCL in 2019, a year older and the same level and he got hammered with the new balls, they had to send him back to AA for a few months even.
 

Reverend

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The two AAA leagues used the same ball as MLB last year, so you could say that about all 2019 MLB stats also, and what's even worse is we have no idea if the balls will change again this season (I guess theoretically they could have informally told the clubs but can you imagine if that leaked?).

There were some absolutely crazy PCL numbers last year, Taylor Widener went from a 2.75 ERA in 137 innings in AA in 2018 and a top 100 MLB prospect to a 8.10 ERA in 100 innings in the PCL in 2019. Justus Sheffield went from a 2.56 ERA in 88 innings in the IL in 2018 to a 6.87 ERA in 55 innings in the PCL in 2019, a year older and the same level and he got hammered with the new balls, they had to send him back to AA for a few months even.
So... yes?
 

jon abbey

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Actually, no, unless you’re planning on ignoring all 2019 MLB numbers too. Is the ball why Porcello and Happ both sucked last year? Maybe, but both guys are getting dumped anyway (Porcello already let go, Happ will follow soon).

It was a big factor, especially in the PCL, but just another thing to keep in mind when looking at stats.
 

jon abbey

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Jen McCaffrey's predictions on the year ahead on The Athletic this AM (I am just copying the headlines, but each has a paragraph of explanation on the site):

1. Martin Perez is better than expected, and Jose Peraza is no Brock Holt replacement
2. Rich Hill signs in spring training and wins a key game later in the year
3. After a bounce-back year, Chris Sale’s contract extension looks like one of Dave Dombrowski’s final gifts to the Red Sox
4. Mitch Moreland re-signs on one-year, $3 million deal
5. But Bobby Dalbec takes over first base by June 1
6. The Red Sox trade David Price to the Dodgers
7. Travis Lakins starts 20 games as an opener
8. Darwinzon Hernandez leads the team in saves, gradually taking over the closer role
9. Mookie Betts remains in Boston the entire season
10. Jackie Bradley Jr. remains in Boston, too