JD and the opt out

RedOctober3829 said:

We can call him part of the core because that's what he is.

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I assume that when we talk about a "young core" in the context of the FO's offseason strategy, we're talking about a group of players that we expect the team to keep together and build around for more than one year--preferably for several more years. If so, we can't reasonably call a guy who's going to be a free agent in a year part of that core. We may wish we could, but we can't.

If they let him go to another team, it will set this franchise back years.

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The bolded part is demeaning to Betts as well as unrealistically demanding of management. Where Betts goes is up to Betts; the Sox can't "let" or not let him do anything.

And it seems a little over the top to say that it will "set the franchise back years" if the Sox are prevented from paying market price for a very expensive free agent. Obviously Betts provides a whole hell of a lot of on-field value, which they'll have to come up with from other sources if he goes. But this does not seem like an unclimbable mountain. I mean, all but one of the teams that have won the World Series since Mookie Betts entered the league have managed to do it without him. So I feel pretty sure that the Red Sox, too, could do it without him if they had to. Hopefully it'll be many years before we find out. But I'm not counting on it.

Patek's 3 Dingers said:

You're being a little harsh to Nomar (his name screws up my auto-correct). Beginning in 1997, he cranked out a 6-7 WAR every year through 2003, except when he hurt his wrist in 2001. If had been able to put his S.I. body onto the field we would have seen some Bonds-like numbers.

He was injured much of 2004, which was compounded by him being pissed that the Sox tried to trade him during the previous winter and being offerred "only" 4/60 for an extension.

Without all the injuries I believe he would have ended up in the HOF.

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I agree he was one of the best players ever, on pace for a HOF career.
But Nomar played in 81 games in 2004 (more with the Cubs than the Sox) followed in 2005 with 62 games-- varying degrees of always injured-- he hit 3 homeruns.

Nomar was toast. Mookie Betts is fire.

Mookie Betts is in his prime. Best position player I've ever seen. Makes the team fun to watch and seems resilient-- not injury prone. There is an added value in that. Some players don't have that value.

jon abbey said:

As with way too many of your posts, this is flat-out wrong. The universal DH was discussed last winter, but Manfred very specifically said over the summer that the NL wouldn't have the DH until at least 2022.

"The commissioner also touched on the possibility of another rule change: The National League adopting the designated hitter, which the union has pushed for in response to the three-batter minimum. Manfred said pitchers will continue to hit in NL parks for at least two more years until the two sides begin discussing the next collective bargaining agreement in December 2021.

"We decided it was a 2021 issue," Manfred said. "It's a major concession to the MLBPA."

"I do not think (the universal DH is) inevitable," he added. "Remember, it takes three-quarters of the vote for approval. Hell, it was hard for me to get three-quarters of the vote to get elected.""

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1796526

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In fairness to P91, Manfred also the the ball wasn't juiced. Things can happen quickly.

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:

Benintendi is as well despite some eagerness here to give up on him.

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Chavis as well?

Let's say the Red Sox deal Mookie this offseason. It would break my heart, but let's say they do. He has one year left on his deal. They'd get SOMETHING useful for him. Let's say they deal him to the Dodgers for OF Alex Verdugo and another prospect (I'll throw out Diego Cartaya, their #2 catching prospect). Verdugo is their #1 rated prospect (or at least was going into 2018), and he hit .294/.342/.475/.817 (114 ops+) in 343 at bats this past year with the Dodgers. They are definitely a "win now" team and even though Verdugo is a nice promising player, he's obviously no Mookie Betts. JD stays with the Sox. So here's their basic core.

C - Vazquez (28) - 482 ab, 23 hr, .276/.320/.477/.798, 103 ops+
1b - ?
2b - Chavis (23) - 347 ab, 18 hr, .254/.322/.444/.766, 96 ops+
3b - Devers (22) - 647 ab, 32 hr, .311/.361/.555/.916, 133 ops+
SS - Bogaerts (26) - 614 ab, 33 hr, .309/.384/.555/.939, 140 ops+
LF - Benintendi (24) - 541 ab, 13 hr, .266/.343/.431/.774, 100 ops+
CF - Bradley (29) - 494 ab, 21 hr, .225/.317/.421/.738, 90 ops+
RF - Verdugo (23) - 343 ab, 12 hr, .294/.342/.475/.817, 114 ops+
DH - Martinez (31) - 575 ab, 36 hr, .304/.383/.557/.939, 140 ops+

Obviously need to fill in a 1b, and maybe a CF if Bradley is dealt as well. But there's a lot of quality young talent in that lineup. That group right there should score a lot of runs. Compare it to the Nationals lineup that just won the World Series. I think it compares just fine with the Nats' lineup. Then they take the Mookie money (along with the Porcello money that's freed up) and shore up the pitching.

I really really hate to see Mookie go. I hope he doesn't go. But if they can get something like Verdugo (and who knows about that) in return, they should absolutely be able to field a very very good offense and use the money to improve other needed areas of the club.

In other words...if they deal Mookie, I'll be very sad, but I won't give up on the Sox.

jon abbey said:

Jeff Passan mentioned it today:

“ If the Red Sox are truly gung ho about dipping beneath the threshold, two executives posited, they could do something truly wild, like a 2.0 version of the Adrian Gonzalez trade. If there were a team that wanted an elite shortstop, might the Red Sox be willing to deal Xander Bogaerts and send along Price and Eovaldi and the $147 million remaining on their deals? It's unlikely, but it would free up the Red Sox to re-sign Betts and build around him and Rafael Devers. If the Red Sox's farm weren't so grim, the notion of having to deal Bogaerts to dump contracts would be laughable. But as the Red Sox face this financial mandate, it's the sort of thing that at least will be discussed.”

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28006357/passan-answers-20-big-hot-stove-questions-free-agency-starts-mlb-offseason-drama-begins

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That doesn't have the added spice of saying Xander is about to fall off a cliff at age 27 though.

My idea is to trade Price to Minnesota for whatever you can get for him while picking up a percentage of his salary. We get off the money and they get an affordable shot at a top pitching talent without breaking the bank.

jon abbey said:

As with way too many of your posts, this is flat-out wrong. The universal DH was discussed last winter, but Manfred very specifically said over the summer that the NL wouldn't have the DH until 2022.
...
"I do not think (the universal DH is) inevitable," he added. "Remember, it takes three-quarters of the vote for approval. Hell, it was hard for me to get three-quarters of the vote to get elected.""

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1796526

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thanks for the additional context on Manfred’s prior remarks, but as I said very clearly, the hosts on MLB Radio were discussing moving it up to 2021. I’m not “wrong” about that. Chill the F out.

FredCDobbs said:

My idea is to trade Price to Minnesota for whatever you can get for him while picking up a percentage of his salary. We get off the money and they get an affordable shot at a top pitching talent without breaking the bank.

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Why does Minnesota want him? (Not entirely a rhetorical question -- I'm curious why you see them as a likely buyer.)

Savin Hillbilly said:

Why does Minnesota want him? (Not entirely a rhetorical question -- I'm curious why you see them as a likely buyer.)

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Minnesota surely wants pitching. Their projected rotation is Berrios/Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe/Poppen — which means their 2-5 starters have thrown a combined 113 lifetime major league innings — and their window is now.

On the other hand, they don’t have any underwater contracts to ballast a Price deal and have no holes where our valuable position players fit, making a Punto trade nearly impossible.

chawson said:

Minnesota surely wants pitching. Their projected rotation is Berrios/Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe/Poppen — which means their 2-5 starters have thrown a combined 113 lifetime major league innings — and their window is now.

On the other hand, they don’t have any underwater contracts to ballast a Price trade and have no holes where our valuable position players fit, making a Punto trade nearly impossible.

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Ah, I was forgetting how many of this year's FAs are from that staff. But it seems like they could build their rotation back up more cost-effectively by re-signing the guys they lost, or their equivalents.

If I were the Minnesota Twins, I would be interested in acquiring two 1-2 type starting pitchers at retail prices, adding as much as $50-60m in AAV. They have a magnificent young lineup (Kepler, Arraez, Rosario, Sano, etc...), and almost all of it is under control for multiple seasons. They also have optionable SP depth, so they are in a position to accept some risk for high-end performance. Now isn't the time to emphasize cost effectiveness. They just need high quality innings, and a rotation they'll be comfortable with against the Yankees or Astros or Red Sox or A's in October.

Berrios is a good start, but the aim should be to move those younger optionable guys down the depth chart. I'd submit offers on guys like Cole, Bumgarner, and Strasburg, but Price's 3-year commitment actually suits them really well because he matches the window.

jon abbey said:

Heh, no one is trading for Price to better match up with the Yankees.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?request=1&submitter=1&pitcher=priceda01&min_year_game=2008&max_year_game=2019&post=1&opp_id=NYY&bats=any&c1gtlt=gt&c2gtlt=gt&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc

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A HR every 9.08 PAs. Jesus that is terrible. Gary and Voit just own the guy

In the Twins' defense, they only have to worry about Price vs. the Yankees maybe a couple times per year and in the playoffs unless they somehow finish with a better record than the AL West team and might be able to at least push it off to a 7-game series. Besides, Price got over his Yankees bugaboo a bit in 2018.

Of course, the reason they lost the ALDS this year was because no one hit in their lineup.

Mueller's Twin Grannies said:

In the Twins' defense, they only have to worry about Price vs. the Yankees maybe a couple times per year and in the playoffs unless they somehow finish with a better record than the AL West team and might be able to at least push it off to a 7-game series. Besides, Price got over his Yankees bugaboo a bit in 2018.

Of course, the reason they lost the ALDS this year was because no one hit in their lineup.

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Price got over his Yankees bugaboo because the Yanks alone figured out he was tipping pitches and the Sox fixed it. His true-talent level is nowhere near that bad against them.

jon abbey said:

This is way off topic, but I'd really like to know what you guys are talking about. I don't think there's a team that owns an opposing SP like NY has owned Price in the last few years. Is this based on the June 2 start? NY didn't have Judge or Stanton or Encarnacion in that game, which allowed Price to pitch around Sanchez some. His most recent start against them was August 4 and was his worst start of the year by Game Score, 7 ERs in 2.2 IP.

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Yes, but he had been struggling for a couple of weeks before that start, after which he immediately went on the DL. So that particular result may have been as much about where Price's health was at that point as about issues he has with the Yankees. And of course that's the problem with vs.-team splits: even within a division, pitchers face individual teams seldom enough that there's inevitably a lot of noise in the signal.

jon abbey said:

This is way off topic, but I'd really like to know what you guys are talking about. I don't think there's a team that owns an opposing SP like NY has owned Price in the last few years. Is this based on the June 2 start? NY didn't have Judge or Stanton or Encarnacion in that game, which allowed Price to pitch around Sanchez some. His most recent start against them was August 4 and was his worst start of the year by Game Score, 7 ERs in 2.2 IP.

Price allowed a 1.162 OPS in 4 starts to them in 2018, got knocked out in the second inning of their ALDS game (the only game BOS lost to NY), and then allowed a 1.109 OPS to them in 2 starts this year (the two I described above), and none of that includes what I believe were three instances of the Yankee flu over the last two seasons, where he was supposed to pitch, was replaced at the last minute, and then was back soon after against a different opponent. Sanchez, Voit and Judge have a combined 12 HRs against him in 38 career ABs, that is hard to do in a video game.

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I’m referring to Jeff Passan’s report in October 2018 that unbeknownst to the Red Sox the Yanks had figured out Price was tipping his changeup.

jon abbey said:

Ah, ok, but three of his worst five regular season starts in 2018 were against NY too, and they were in April, July and September (https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=priceda01&t=p&year=2018). I guess we'll see going forward.

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Right, my read on that is that they had his number all year and the Sox figured it out in October.

chawson said:

Right, my read on that is that they had his number all year and the Sox figured it out in October.

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But he got bombed in Game 2 of the ALDS... in October.

I thought he had done better than that but maybe not. He's also been wretched in Yankee Stadium, putting up Rask-in-Montreal numbers there too, though that may be because he's a lefty facing a righty-heavy lineup with that short porch (not that he hasn't given up his share of moonshots there either). He would probably do Minnesota a world of good during the regular season and against any other playoff opponent, but he just gets beaten like a government mule by the Yankees and will not be the missing piece to help the Twins get by New York in a best-of-5 series. A best-of-7 where he can pitch at home and maybe gets a more favorable draw that his teammates could score against (not that they could this year) and keep him at least in the game could be where his value truly lies against that opponent (as was pointed out, he absorbed the only Sox loss in the ALDS last year).

He came back and pitched well against Houston. I feel like I remember him having a great start against NY at some point in time. But, maybe that's just misremembering.

While I was teaching, this turned into a whole thing.

I didn't mean to emphasize that Price in particular would be a great playoff matchup against NYY, but that they should be pursuing high-end starting pitching to pair with their position player core. While it's true that their current #2 starter, Devin Smeltzer, only allowed one run in five frames in his one start against NY, I don't think that track record means they have it sorted: they could use more quality depth in the rotation.

Man I know "flags fly forever" but that Price contract really looks terrible when you frame it like that. Here is to hoping Bloom can veer away from the huge FA contracts to aging pitchers and find some under the radar guys that will help us build out our rotation.

sean1562 said:

Man I know "flags fly forever" but that Price contract really looks terrible when you frame it like that. Here is to hoping Bloom can veer away from the huge FA contracts to aging pitchers and find some under the radar guys that will help us build out our rotation.

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Unfortunately, in baseball so much depends on your starting pitching, which is why contending teams are usually required to spend a big portion of their payroll on the starters. Look at Houston, their two top guys are 36 and 37. The Sox having money invested in a couple of 30 year olds and a 34 year old look wise by comparison.

The Sox' starters stunk last season, but there is good reason to hope it was just a fluke season from the team going so deep into the playoffs in 2018. As painful as it is, I'm willing to have an off year if it means we get back to the WS in 2020