2019 Pre-Game Thread: Wk. 9 at Ravens

DrewDawg said:

Big game this week. Ravens are one of the other 2 AFC teams, along with Colts, with fewer than 3 losses. A win here would go a long way to setting the AFC up to having to come through New England. I've seen the line as anywhere from -3.5 to -5.5.

Gonna be interesting to see what we do on Lamar Jackson--maybe try to mirror what Seattle did, holding him to 9 of 20 for 143 yards through the air.

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Bills also have fewer than 3 losses.

If the Pats win I'll look forward to Jamie Collins being mentioned in every single post in the 'game ball' thread.

DrewDawg said:

Big game this week. Ravens are one of the other 3 AFC teams, along with Colts and Bills, with fewer than 3 losses. A win here would go a long way to setting the AFC up to having to come through New England. I've seen the line as anywhere from -3.5 to -5.5.

Gonna be interesting to see what we do on Lamar Jackson--maybe try to mirror what Seattle did, holding him to 9 of 20 for 143 yards through the air.

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BAL had between three and six drops (depending on you score that) that game, including three (according to PF Reference but perhaps 4 if you watch the game) from Mark Andrews, which is more drops than he had the season up to that game.

DrewDawg said:

Pats at 98% to earn a bye.

They've played 8 games.

View: https://twitter.com/SethWalder/status/1188913157991030784

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Less than 00.1% chance of missing the playoffs ... after 8 games

If I read that correctly, it's 98% chance to have home field advantage for the AFC Championship Game. That's HUGE!

Koufax said:

If I read that correctly, it's 98% chance to have home field advantage for the AFC Championship Game. That's HUGE!

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Ummmm...not exactly.

Looking forward to this one. My disdain for this franchise has calmed down, slightly, over the years. After a few articles about JH and their model franchise it'll be right back to pre-2014 levels. Hoping for another botched eligible receiver play from the Ravens.

The season defining portion of the schedule is upon us. At Ravens, @Eagles, Cowboys, @Texans, Chiefs.

Fuck the Ravens, honestly. Harbaugh is a fucking hypocritical crybaby when it comes to the rules, and good lord is the WE PHYSICAL EVERYONE ELSE FINESSE ethic strong with this one.

On the other hand, that violent shithead Suggs has moved on, leaving us without any bona fide villains in between the lines.

Mystic Merlin said:

Fuck the Ravens, honestly. Harbaugh is a fucking hypocritical crybaby when it comes to the rules, and good lord is the WE PHYSICAL EVERYONE ELSE FINESSE ethic strong with this one.

On the other hand, that violent shithead Suggs has moved on, leaving us without any bona fide villains in between the lines.

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My thoughts exactly. Just done better.

+1

This is the first real test for the team, which is both exciting and scary. BAL has a top 5-10 offense in the league, and presents some unique challenges for any defense, especially on the road. Luckily, unlike in previous years, the BAL defense seems much closer to league average, and it's missing a lot of the old playmakers that gave Brady fits. I'm very curious to see how this team plays on Sunday, because the schedule has been so soft that I have no idea how good they are still, halfway through the season.

I have a feeling we will see the old R. Wilson defense here with lots of methodical pass rushing designed to contain Jackson and force him to beat them through the air. I would expect BAL to counter this with a heaping helping of RPO’s.
When NE has the ball I’ll be curious to see how BAL defends them. Rush four like usual or send an extra or two as Brady has appeared to be human against the blitz this year?
I could see anything between a 24-13 loss and a 34-10 win. BAL will be treating this line their Super Bowl complete with “blackout” uniforms and fan garb. Like others, if they survive this one, I feel like the path to 16-0 gets significantly cleaner.

Mystic Merlin said:

Fuck the Ravens, honestly. Harbaugh is a fucking hypocritical crybaby when it comes to the rules, and good lord is the WE PHYSICAL EVERYONE ELSE FINESSE ethic strong with this one.

On the other hand, that violent shithead Suggs has moved on, leaving us without any bona fide villains in between the lines.

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Harbaugh himself isn't enough for you? I hope this game leaves his whiny ass harbawling like a harbaby.

koufax32 said:

I have a feeling we will see the old R. Wilson defense here with lots of methodical pass rushing designed to contain Jackson and force him to beat them through the air. I would expect BAL to counter this with a heaping helping of RPO’s.
When NE has the ball I’ll be curious to see how BAL defends them. Rush four like usual or send an extra or two as Brady has appeared to be human against the blitz this year?
I could see anything between a 24-13 loss and a 34-10 win. BAL will be treating this line their Super Bowl complete with “blackout” uniforms and fan garb. Like others, if they survive this one, I feel like the path to 16-0 gets significantly cleaner.

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Agreed. Right now, media is basically acknowledging that Pats are undefeated. If they beat Ravens, I feel like the 16-0 talk will really ramp up.

InstaFace said:

Harbaugh himself isn't enough for you? I hope this game leaves his whiny ass harbawling like a harbaby.

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It’s very annoying because he is a very good HC and could easily lose the whining. The whole staff is excellent and has had 2 weeks to focus on this game.

Take some comfort in Ravens injury and attrition on defense. Otherwise, Wink Martindale could turn this into a Brady house of horrors.

dcmissle said:

The season defining portion of the schedule is upon us. At Ravens, @Eagles, Cowboys, @Texans, Chiefs.

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It's an important stretch in terms of seeing this Pats team match up against quality opposition week in and week out for the first time. Calling it season defining is a bit much. I mean, it's not unrealistic that they could go 2-3 during this stretch and still come out the other side in the driver's seat for the #1 seed.

That said, this week against the Ravens is probably the biggest of those games. A Ravens win and they'll only be one game back of the Pats in the loss column, and they'll own the tiebreaker. Baltimore's remaining schedule isn't that tough either. @Rams, home against Niners, @Buffalo probably has a loss or two in there. That's about it.

Mystic Merlin said:

Fuck the Ravens, honestly. Harbaugh is a fucking hypocritical crybaby when it comes to the rules, and good lord is the WE PHYSICAL EVERYONE ELSE FINESSE ethic strong with this one.

On the other hand, that violent shithead Suggs has moved on, leaving us without any bona fide villains in between the lines.

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They keep drafting some of my favorite prospects too. Hate that Lamar is a damn Raven.

Here are the 3 things I am focused on from the defensive side:

1. Front 7: You almost have to defend this offense like it is a wildcat/RPO heavy hybrid. Sadly, both are styles of offenses that have resulted in some sorry defensive performances by the Patriots in the past. Rather than running a pressure heavy scheme with stunts and twists upfront and cover zero blitzes, I expect the Patriots to focus on containment with disciplined rush lanes and protecting against slants and crossers underneath. This is likely to result in fewer turnovers and sacks than this defense has generated over the past 8 games. I expect more snaps coming from the heavy package (Guy, Shelton, Wise, Bentley, Roberts).

2. TEs vs LBs: The Ravens have a pretty decent complement of tight ends. I would expect the Ravens to try to force the Patriot linebackers into coverage situations deeper down the field on the tight ends to make sure they are thinking about both the pass and the run. There will be time to convert on some deeper throws as I would expect Jackson will be given more time in the pocket due to the disciplined rush.

3. Offense as the best defense: A great way to beat a team is to force them to play left handed. The Ravens are clearly a great running team, but if Lamar Jackson is forced into going toe to toe in the air with Tom Brady against this secondary I don't see that going well for the Ravens. The Ravens are clearly capable of putting up a lot of points, but Belichick is usually pretty good at making the field seem very long and long drives eat up a lot of precious time. Conversely, if the Ravens get out to the early lead and the Patriots have to play a bit more aggressively to generate stops, I see that going the Ravens way.

The Patriots will most definitely play with heavier fronts this week given that Baltimore has averaged over 200 yards a game rushing. Shelton and Guy should see their snap counts elevate as said above. I'd also look for more 4 man fronts with emphasis on heavier players on the edges. A 4-3 of Wise-Shelton-Guy-Hightower with Bentley-Roberts-Collins on 1st/2nd down would be their heaviest look. Gilmore should be shadowing Hollywood Brown with J-Mac on Snead. On 3rd down is where they can get creative in schemes and coverages. I believe Jackson will throw a couple to us.

I was actually expecting them to treat Brown like they did Tyreek Hill. Put Jonathan Jones on him (speed on speed) with a safety over the top. However, the threat of the run game and the heavier packages might make that sort of bracket coverage a bigger strain on defensive resources. If Gilmore is matched up on anyone except Brown, I would expect that we may not even hear Gilmore mentioned all game. I don't see Jackson testing his accuracy vs. Gilmore.

People are dramatically overrating the Ravens here. Forget their history vs. the Patriots, let's look at what they've accomplished this year.

Wins: Miami by 49, Arizona by 6, Pitt by 3 (in OT), CIN by 6, Seattle by 14.
Losses: @ KC by 5, vs. CLE by 15.

The Seattle win is the most impressive... until you realize they had a pick 6 and a fumble recovery for a TD a true outlier game aided by Jackson running for 116. Nothing else seems impressive, barely beating the worst teams in the league, being KC's only home win of the year and getting dominated by the Browns at home.

The Ravens are #20 in defensive rush D and 11 in pass D despite facing some of the worst offenses in the league. #1 in offensive rush dvoa and #11 in offensive pass dvoa despite playing most of the worst defenses in the league.

Pats should easily cover this game.

Mystic Merlin said:

Fuck the Ravens, honestly. Harbaugh is a fucking hypocritical crybaby when it comes to the rules, and good lord is the WE PHYSICAL EVERYONE ELSE FINESSE ethic strong with this one.

On the other hand, that violent shithead Suggs has moved on, leaving us without any bona fide villains in between the lines.

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There's Jordan Richards and Cyrus Jones
I kid

But they do have all of the below on their roster:

a Jr
a Sr
a II
TWO III's
and a IV

SumnerH said:

Which is a sign that it's junk stats, no?

It's got to be higher odds than 0.1% that, say, Brady and Gilmore go down with injuries or are handicapped by them in the next couple of weeks. Not likely, but 0.1% is stupidly low odds.

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They are 8-0 with games to play against the Bengals and Dolphins, so they could start Kessler/Stidham for 8 games and at the very, very least go 10-6, which would more than likely put them in the playoffs.

Red Averages said:

People are dramatically overrating the Ravens here. Forget their history vs. the Patriots, let's look at what they've accomplished this year.

Wins: Miami by 49, Arizona by 6, Pitt by 3 (in OT), CIN by 6, Seattle by 14.
Losses: @ KC by 5, vs. CLE by 15.

The Seattle win is the most impressive... until you realize they had a pick 6 and a fumble recovery for a TD a true outlier game aided by Jackson running for 116. Nothing else seems impressive, barely beating the worst teams in the league, being KC's only home win of the year and getting dominated by the Browns at home.

The Ravens are #20 in defensive rush D and 11 in pass D despite facing some of the worst offenses in the league. #1 in offensive rush dvoa and #11 in offensive pass dvoa despite playing most of the worst defenses in the league.

Pats should easily cover this game.

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Great post. I hate when the 2019 facts get in the way of a good 2009 narrative.

From Harbaugh's PC yesterday on the Pats defense: "They are creating an incredible amount of turnovers, especially early in games. The basis of it to me is that they’re an old-school defense. They're a big, strong defense, they play straight ahead, they play square, they lock out, they get off blocks, they keep their eyes on their responsibility. They’ll play a good mix of man and zone but mostly man in the back end. They have cover guys back there who cover exceptionally well. A lot of experience in the back end as well so they know what they’re doing. They play with good technique. Just a very solid defense. Very physical defense too."

Can someone who knows a lot about the Ravens post a bit of a scouting report? For example, Jackson is the Ravens leading rusher, is her getting his yards off RPO? Off scrambles? QB draws?
How is their traditional rushing attack? Take Jackson’s yards away and their rushing per game drops from 201 to 121 which is a lot more pedestrian, dropping them from 1st to 13th (i didn’t bother adjusting for the other 12 teams).
How’s their passing game? Despite Jackson’s speed, he’s been sacked a lot more than Brady (17/7 vs 13/8).
What are they doing on D, in the post-Lewis/Reed/Suggs era?

5dice said:

Great post. I hate when the 2019 facts get in the way of a good 2009 narrative.

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Great post? That was real close to a "well if you ignore the good stuff that happened, only bad stuff has happened!"

You can play that game with every team in the league. You want to cherry pick the good fortune the Pats got in the Buffalo game? C'mon. With apologies to Parcells, you are what your point differential says you are. And here it says they're the next best team in the AFC.

This game has all the makings of must see TV. Probably one of the best matchups of the season.

Red Averages said:

People are dramatically overrating the Ravens here. Forget their history vs. the Patriots, let's look at what they've accomplished this year.

Wins: Miami by 49, Arizona by 6, Pitt by 3 (in OT), CIN by 6, Seattle by 14.
Losses: @ KC by 5, vs. CLE by 15.

The Seattle win is the most impressive... until you realize they had a pick 6 and a fumble recovery for a TD a true outlier game aided by Jackson running for 116. Nothing else seems impressive, barely beating the worst teams in the league, being KC's only home win of the year and getting dominated by the Browns at home.

The Ravens are #20 in defensive rush D and 11 in pass D despite facing some of the worst offenses in the league. #1 in offensive rush dvoa and #11 in offensive pass dvoa despite playing most of the worst defenses in the league.

Pats should easily cover this game.

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Yeah, it's hard to know how good BAL is because of their schedule. That being said:

(1) I would discount the CLE loss. The defense played horribly as a lot of receivers were running free in that game. Since then, BAL has completely reworked their inside LBs and while Fort and Bynes are certainly less athletic they actually know where they are supposed to be, which is important in BAL's defense.

(2) Tony Jefferson went down. Prior to his injury, he was pretty bad as evidenced both by his grades and the eye test. He's been replaced by Chuck Clar, who is also wearing the green dot. Clark is supposedly the guy who knows everything about the defense but at least for the last couple of games, he's been solid.

(3) Jimmy Smith is likely coming back this week. Fortunately for the Ravens, he doesn't need to be a #1 corner. All he has to do is be better than the 4th guys BAL were playing (Anthony Averett and Maurice Canady if anyone is interested).

I think I would take the under in this one (presuming no special teams breakdowns).

InstaFace said:

Great post? That was real close to a "well if you ignore the good stuff that happened, only bad stuff has happened!"

You can play that game with every team in the league. You want to cherry pick the good fortune the Pats got in the Buffalo game? C'mon. With apologies to Parcells, you are what your point differential says you are. And here it says they're the next best team in the AFC.

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Ok. So outside of Seattle game, which win were you most impressed by?

InstaFace said:

Great post? That was real close to a "well if you ignore the good stuff that happened, only bad stuff has happened!"

You can play that game with every team in the league. You want to cherry pick the good fortune the Pats got in the Buffalo game? C'mon. With apologies to Parcells, you are what your point differential says you are. And here it says they're the next best team in the AFC.

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Ok. Do you have any thing that you want to present for why this will be a game to fear? Some actual evidence would be helpful.

SumnerH said:

Which is a sign that it's junk stats, no?

It's got to be higher odds than 0.1% that, say, Brady and Gilmore go down with injuries or are handicapped by them in the next couple of weeks. Not likely, but 0.1% is stupidly low odds.

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I'm not sure it's that bad. What are the odds that Brady goes down with a season ending injury? It's happened once in his long career and there's now more rules to protect the QB and he's better about avoiding contact when taking a sack. He's also older which does increase the odds, but let's call it 5%. Gilmore has been pretty healthy most of his career, but has missed a few games here and there. Let's set his odds to 7%. The odds of both of those events happening are 0.35%. Then we have to calculate the chance that the Patriots still can't string together enough wins with Stidham at QB and next man up at CB to still win some games with their remaining schedule.

The top 7 teams in the AFC other than the Patriots are: KC, Baltimore, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Buffalo and Tennessee, so Buffalo plus 5 of those remaining teams would have to leap frog the Patriots for the Patriots to miss the playoffs. Looking just at the last three the projected records are Jacksonville (8-8), Tennessee (4-4) and Buffalo (10-6). Obviously in a scenario where the Patriots miss the playoffs, those teams are out performing their projections, but even so 9-7 might get a wild card this year and 10-6 almost certainly makes the playoffs given the Jacksonville and Tennessee already each have 4 losses. Even with both Brady and Gilmore getting injured for the season in a loss vs Baltimore this weekend, the Patriots are still heavy favorites vs the Dolphins and Bengals, and probably slight favorites or a coin flip at home vs the Cowboys and Bills.

I am just not a believer in the long term viability of the running QB in the NFL. The defensive players are too big, too fast and too strong. I know one of the aspects of Jackson's game that everyone likes is his elusiveness but sooner or later someone is going to square him up. I just can't imagine letting my most valuable player take way more hits than other teams' QBs. If freaks like Barkley and Peterson get hurt running the ball, Jackson will eventually get plastered and injured. I don't care how smart Harbaugh is, his QB will either wear down or get a catastrophic injury.

ShaneTrot said:

I am just not a believer in the long term viability of the running QB in the NFL. The defensive players are too big, too fast and too strong. I know one of the aspects of Jackson's game that everyone likes is his elusiveness but sooner or later someone is going to square him up. I just can't imagine letting my most valuable player take way more hits than other teams' QBs. If freaks like Barkley and Peterson get hurt running the ball, Jackson will eventually get plastered and injured. I don't care how smart Harbaugh is, his QB will either wear down or get a catastrophic injury.

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I agree that it's not a good long-term plan to have your QB run a lot. But for any given game, it may be a great tactic and could cause opposing defenses all kinds of headaches.

Red Averages said:

Ok. Do you have any thing that you want to present for why this will be a game to fear? Some actual evidence would be helpful.

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I think the concerns are:
1) For all that the Ravens might be a paper tiger, they are still the toughest (or maybe second-toughest after Buffalo) opponent the Patriots have faced this year.
2) It's a road game. The Patriots are 4-0 on the road this year, but struggled to win their one road game against a decent opponent and really struggled on the road last year.
3) The Ravens are coming off a bye and have two weeks to prepare vs the Patriots' one, and they have a good coaching staff that might actually be able to make use of that extra time.
4) The Ravens run an unconventional offense that is difficult to prepare for.
5) After a couple terrible defensive games against KC and Cleveland, the Baltimore D has looked better the past three games, albeit with two games against weak opponents.

I'd still make the Pats the favorites here, but I'm expecting a tough one.

SumnerH said:

Which is a sign that it's junk stats, no?

It's got to be higher odds than 0.1% that, say, Brady and Gilmore go down with injuries or are handicapped by them in the next couple of weeks. Not likely, but 0.1% is stupidly low odds.

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Yes. The flaw in this sort of analysis is that it assesses the single-game probabilities based on current information, then treats the games as independent events. A more realistic calculation needs to consider the variance of the probability forecasts themselves - particularly the possibility of a systematic downward shock like an injury to a key player. I imagine this has already been studied to some degree by the analytics sites... if not, it would make for a good SoSH/ITP research project.

ShaneTrot said:

I am just not a believer in the long term viability of the running QB in the NFL. The defensive players are too big, too fast and too strong. I know one of the aspects of Jackson's game that everyone likes is his elusiveness but sooner or later someone is going to square him up. I just can't imagine letting my most valuable player take way more hits than other teams' QBs. If freaks like Barkley and Peterson get hurt running the ball, Jackson will eventually get plastered and injured. I don't care how smart Harbaugh is, his QB will either wear down or get a catastrophic injury.

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I have no idea what the long-term viability of Lamar Jackson is but one thing that has occurred thus far in his career is that even though he's running, he's generally has been able to avoid being hit. I mean, for example, DeShaun Watson gets hit way more than Lamar and even in the last game, Wilson was hit a lot worse from the pass rush than Lamar was getting hit running the ball.

Lamar is 11-3 as a starter and I believe he has beaten every team he has faced for the first time other than Kansas City. I don't believe that teams really understand just how explosive a runner he is until they actually face him. One thing I've heard that sounds correct is that some of what Lamar does against NFL players looks a lot like how Allen Iverson used to look in high school.

He's fun to watch.

Saints Rest said:

Can someone who knows a lot about the Ravens post a bit of a scouting report? For example, Jackson is the Ravens leading rusher, is her getting his yards off RPO? Off scrambles? QB draws?
How is their traditional rushing attack? Take Jackson’s yards away and their rushing per game drops from 201 to 121 which is a lot more pedestrian, dropping them from 1st to 13th (i didn’t bother adjusting for the other 12 teams).
How’s their passing game? Despite Jackson’s speed, he’s been sacked a lot more than Brady (17/7 vs 13/8).
What are they doing on D, in the post-Lewis/Reed/Suggs era?

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I can't really post a scouting report not being all that up on the technical part of football but I can say is that you can't really separate Jackson from their running attack and try to figure out what they would do traditionally. I can't remember the exact stats, but if you look at last year, the Ravens couldn't run the ball at all when Flacco was QB. Take Flacco out and put in Lamar, and they become historically or almost historically good.

The issue is that someone has to account for Lamar, so the defense has one less guy to play the run. And the Ravens run a bunch of power packages out of their RPO so they open up a lot of lanes.

Here's one example of how the Ravens load up power - this is a breakdown from a former Seahawk LB.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1OtuP7MSZM

Red Averages said:

Ok. Do you have any thing that you want to present for why this will be a game to fear? Some actual evidence would be helpful.

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I hardly think it needs argument. I mean, I think the Patriots should still be favored, but there's little doubt that it's either the most dangerous game on the schedule or a close 2nd behind KC.
- point spread / implied probabilities
- DVOA ratings, particularly in that BAL's strength (rush offense) is not countered by one of our great strengths (e.g. pass defense)
- away game vs respected and competent coach with a history of beating us, whose teams rarely-if-ever beat themselves
- them having 2 weeks to prepare (bye), to our 1
- injury list hasn't changed and several key contributors were out of our last game
- greatest weaknesses in the team (particularly OL) not having any particular reason for being believed improved, other than Scarnecchia continuing to get practice reps in

I laughed about the fears expressed here about the Jets game, because almost none of that was true aside from injuries e.g. Burkhead. That was just paranoia. But it's not paranoia if Baltimore really is out to get us.

All of that means it should be an enjoyable game that's exciting to the last and truly tests the Patriots. Doesn't mean we need to bite our fingernails down to the nubs in advance, but the picking-apart of Baltimore's record year-to-date just strikes me as willfully trying to ignore the larger picture.

On the plus side, there won't be replacement referees doing this game.

On the minus side, Rex Ryan is not on the Ravens sideline to call a time out and negate a fourth down stop that would have won the game for the Ravens.

That's all I've got.

5dice said:

Ok. So outside of Seattle game, which win were you most impressed by?

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I don't care if it's new coach who's tanking in week 1, anytime you are capable of putting up 59 points on an NFL team, you're pretty likely to be a threat to the whole league. There have been studies showing that blowing out bad teams (reliably and by large margins) is a greater predictor of true team strength than narrowly-won games against good teams.

Also, the great hidden strength of the 2019 Patriots (our relative and consistent health, despite the obvious exceptions) is also a strength of Baltimore's. Their IR'd players of greatest consequence have been two backup CBs (Tavon Young and Jimmy Smith) and their backup SS (Tony Jefferson, backing up Earl Thomas and Chuck Clark, and to a lesser extent Anthony Levine and Jordan Richards). That's borderline miraculous injury luck year-to-date. Our 2.5 injured OLs are the only injuries of consequence to the Patriots (I don't think a rookie WR, even a first-rounder, really qualifies), and that alone is "great injury luck" for them - and Baltimore's is even better.

InstaFace said:

- away game vs respected and competent coach with a history of beating us, whose teams rarely-if-ever beat themselves

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Fun fact: the Browns have as many regular season victories against the Pats as the Ravens do this era

InstaFace said:

I don't care if it's new coach who's tanking in week 1, anytime you are capable of putting up 59 points on an NFL team, you're pretty likely to be a threat to the whole league. There have been studies showing that blowing out bad teams (reliably and by large margins) is a greater predictor of true team strength than narrowly-won games against good teams.

Also, the great hidden strength of the 2019 Patriots (our relative and consistent health, despite the obvious exceptions) is also a strength of Baltimore's. Their IR'd players of greatest consequence have been two backup CBs (Tavon Young and Jimmy Smith) and their backup SS (Tony Jefferson, backing up Earl Thomas and Chuck Clark, and to a lesser extent Anthony Levine and Jordan Richards). That's borderline miraculous injury luck year-to-date. Our 2.5 injured OLs are the only injuries of consequence to the Patriots (I don't think a rookie WR, even a first-rounder, really qualifies), and that alone is "great injury luck" for them - and Baltimore's is even better.

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Jimmy Smith and Hollywood Brown are expected to be back this week.

Bellhorn said:

Yes. The flaw in this sort of analysis is that it assesses the single-game probabilities based on current information, then treats the games as independent events. A more realistic calculation needs to consider the variance of the probability forecasts themselves - particularly the possibility of a systematic downward shock like an injury to a key player. I imagine this has already been studied to some degree by the analytics sites... if not, it would make for a good SoSH/ITP research project.

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Well put. If I were setting the lines I would start with 30 to 1 of not making it which would be basically betting on 2 to 3 major injuries. Now I must go cleanse myself